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Oil Price Reduction Impacts on the Iranian Economy 油价下跌对伊朗经济的影响
Pub Date : 2017-12-22 DOI: 10.18045/ZBEFRI.2017.2.353
A. Mahmoodi
The aim of this study is to assess the impacts of oil price reduction on Iran’s economy. In order to simulate this shock, the global trade analysis project (GTAP) model with its data done by using. In the new created data aggregation, oil exporting in Iran and the rest of the world countries as economic new regions, ten new economic sectors have been created, among which the oil is introduced as one sector as well as five endowments. The standard economic closure was changed, and decline in world oil price was simulated in model as a policy shock. The results show that oil export revenue and the mineral commodity export earnings will decrease, but other production sectors’ exports will increase. The trade balance of Iran will be affected negatively and strongly. Also, oil and other services production decreased. In the production sectors’ market, the demand for labor, natural resources, and investment decreased dramatically, and the demand for land increased. Using equivalent variation (EV), changes in Iran’s welfare is high negative. Finally, deflation, reduction in value and quantity of GDP and changes in consumption combination from public to private sector are the other economic impacts of reduction in oil price on Iran’s economic. It is suggested that future studies are done using dynamic models and up-to-date data. In addition, policy makers need to rebound internationally and within OPEC to raise oil prices.
本研究的目的是评估油价下跌对伊朗经济的影响。为了模拟这一冲击,利用全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)模型及其数据所做的研究。在新创建的数据汇总中,伊朗和世界其他国家的石油出口作为经济新区域,创建了10个新的经济部门,其中石油作为一个部门引入,5个禀赋。改变了标准的经济封闭,并在模型中模拟了世界油价下跌作为政策冲击。结果表明,石油出口收入和矿产品出口收入将减少,但其他生产部门的出口将增加。伊朗的贸易平衡将受到负面和强烈的影响。此外,石油和其他服务的产量也有所下降。在生产部门的市场中,对劳动力、自然资源和投资的需求急剧减少,对土地的需求增加。使用等效变异(EV),伊朗的福利变化是高度负的。最后,通货紧缩、GDP价值和数量的减少以及消费组合从公共部门到私营部门的变化是油价下跌对伊朗经济的其他经济影响。建议今后使用动态模型和最新数据进行研究。此外,政策制定者需要在国际和欧佩克内部反弹,以提高油价。
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引用次数: 10
The Effect of Facility Management in Supply Chain Security Operational Performance and Firm in Malaysia 马来西亚设施管理对供应链安全、运营绩效和企业的影响
Pub Date : 2017-12-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3090093
Clara Dusitin
Purpose - The security issue in supply chains is among the most pressing concerns that firms are currently facing. As a preliminary attempt to address this lack of empirical research, the primary purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between security practices and the security operational performance with respect to security culture as a moderator. Design/methodology/approach – Data were collected through a survey questionnaire responded by 100 senior executives in the industry in Malaysia. The relationships proposed in the developed theoretical framework were represented through three hypotheses: H1- there is a significant relationship between professionalism and contract compliance. H2- There is a significant relationship between processing and contract compliance. H3- there is a significant relationship between specification and contract compliance. Linear regression, ANOVA and Pearson correlation were used to test the hypotheses. Findings – Strong evidence was found of a positive relationship between regulatory measures, customer pressures with the green purchasing supply chain. Green purchasing was most strongly influenced by regulatory measures and customer pressures, whilst social-cultural responsibility was most strongly influenced by green purchasing supply chain. Practical implications – This study will assist supply chain managers and logisticians to re-examine their existing supply chain security model by considering the selected supply chain security practices, which have a significant impact on supply chain security operational performance. Individual firms need to strategize their business model with the inclusion of security aspects, which will surely create a competitive advantage over other players in the logistics industry. Firms can develop the best appropriate supply chain security model that will benefit the firm, customers, and business partners, such as suppliers and local authorities. Originality/value - The study highlights is the important role of the supply chain security practices to deliver high quality of service in terms of supply chain security operational performance in emerging countries. In addition, it offers an empirical analysis of the moderating role of security culture on the relationship between supply chain security practices and security operational performance.
目的-供应链中的安全问题是企业目前面临的最紧迫的问题之一。作为解决这一缺乏实证研究的初步尝试,本文的主要目的是探讨安全实践与安全运营绩效之间的关系,并将安全文化作为调节因素。设计/方法/方法-通过调查问卷收集数据,由马来西亚100名行业高级管理人员回答。在发展的理论框架中提出的关系通过三个假设来表示:H1-专业主义与合同遵守之间存在显著的关系。H2-加工与合同遵守之间存在显著关系。H3-规范与合同合规性之间存在显著关系。采用线性回归、方差分析和Pearson相关对假设进行检验。调查结果-强有力的证据表明,监管措施、客户压力与绿色采购供应链之间存在正相关关系。绿色采购受监管措施和消费者压力的影响最大,而社会文化责任受绿色采购供应链的影响最大。实际意义-本研究将帮助供应链管理人员和物流人员通过考虑选定的供应链安全实践来重新检查他们现有的供应链安全模型,这些实践对供应链安全运营绩效有重大影响。个别公司需要制定包含安全方面的商业模式战略,这肯定会在物流行业中创造竞争优势。企业可以开发最合适的供应链安全模型,这将使企业、客户和业务合作伙伴(如供应商和地方当局)受益。原创性/价值-该研究强调了供应链安全实践在新兴国家提供高质量服务方面的重要作用,即供应链安全运营绩效。此外,本文还对安全文化对供应链安全实践与安全运营绩效之间关系的调节作用进行了实证分析。
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引用次数: 0
Should We Fear a Crisis of the CFA Franc? 我们应该担心非洲金融共同体法郎的危机吗?
Pub Date : 2017-11-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3072464
Giscard Assoumou-Ella
Since the decline in world oil prices that began in July 2014, the macroeconomic fundamentals of the CEMAC countries have deteriorated, notably the balance of payments. The degradation of the current balances is likely to extend downwards; raising concerns about the stability of the exchange rate. Based on interrupted time series modeling, the analysis shows that the oil shock immediately led to a decline in CEMAC's net foreign assets, as well as their trend. The model predicts a continued degradation of these foreign assets if oil prices remain low. As a result, there is a risk of the fixed exchange rate of the CFA franc of Central Africa becoming unsustainable. This situation can also lead to currency instability if economic policies do not lead to a return to economic growth.
自2014年7月世界油价开始下跌以来,中非经济共同体国家的宏观经济基本面已经恶化,尤其是国际收支。经常收支状况的恶化可能会向下延伸;引发对汇率稳定的担忧。基于中断时间序列模型的分析表明,石油冲击立即导致CEMAC的净外国资产下降,以及它们的趋势。该模型预测,如果油价保持低位,这些外国资产将继续贬值。因此,中非的非洲金融共同体法郎的固定汇率存在不可持续的风险。如果经济政策不能使经济恢复增长,这种情况也会导致货币不稳定。
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引用次数: 0
The Lost Decade & Its Side Effect on Commodities 失落的十年及其对大宗商品的副作用
Pub Date : 2017-11-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3631690
Ali Muhammad Lakdawala
Ten year has gone by since GFC : Global Financial Crisis which was considered by many economists to have been the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. However, we continue to face the tremors of meltdown aftermath even to date.

Resultant impact of which was felt on commodities across sectors/segment wherein prices tanked. Palm oil was no exception to such meltdown and faced huge setback as Crude Palm Oil prices at Rotterdam crashed from the highs of $1249/mt to lows of $488/mt.

Looking back at the event gone by it can be rightly said:

"Life in not about How hard you can hit. But How Much you can get hit and still keep moving forward" - Rocky Balboa.

Certainly the sector has bounced back with vengeance there been some turbulence on the way as aftermath tremors continues to be felt globally.

Paper will revisit the GFC period to explore the relationship that existed between currency & what impact it had on commodities especially Palm Oil segment. It would also analyse the situation at present and whether GFC was GOOD/BAD/UGLY for Palm Oil segment. Not leaving out analysing the health of palm exporting countries to ponder upon impact assessment on demand of importing countries or has importing countries stopped consuming or has it started to produce on its own??? It will be explored in detail (consumption centres)

Further to that paper will explore on how exporting centres can use such crisis to its advantage by exploring terms of trade with importing centres, by exploring currency of trade (breaking US hegemony), etc. Finally concluding with events to watchful about and analysing the prevailing market structure for way forward.
全球金融危机被许多经济学家认为是自20世纪30年代大萧条以来最严重的金融危机,现在已经过去了10年。然而,到目前为止,我们仍然面临着核危机后果的冲击。由此产生的影响是在商品的各个部门/部分,其中价格下跌。棕榈油也不例外,在鹿特丹,随着棕榈油价格从1249美元/吨的高点暴跌至488美元/吨的低点,棕榈油遭遇了巨大的挫折。回顾过去的事件,可以正确地说:“生活不在于你能打多狠。但你能在受到多少打击的情况下继续前进?”——洛奇·巴尔博亚。当然,该行业已经迅速反弹,但随着全球仍能感受到余震,市场将出现一些动荡。本文将回顾全球金融危机时期,探讨货币与货币之间存在的关系。它对大宗商品尤其是棕榈油板块的影响。它还将分析目前的情况,以及全球金融危机对棕榈油板块是好/坏/丑。不遗漏分析棕榈出口国的健康状况,以考虑对进口国需求的影响评估,或者进口国已经停止消费或已经开始自己生产??本文将详细探讨(消费中心),进一步探讨出口中心如何通过探索与进口中心的贸易条件,通过探索贸易货币(打破美国霸权)等,利用这种危机。最后总结了值得关注的事件,并分析了当前的市场结构,为未来的发展指明了方向。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Sourcing Policies on a Supplier's Sustainable Practices 采购政策对供应商可持续实践的影响
Pub Date : 2017-10-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2601974
Vishal V. Agrawal, Deishin Lee
Consumers today increasingly care about the process characteristics of the supply chain that created their product, such as the environmental impact of the processes. To meet this growing demand for sustainably produced products, firm must be able to source sustainably produced parts from their suppliers. In this paper, we analyze when and how buyers (manufacturers or retailers) can use sourcing policies to influence their suppliers to adopt sustainable processes that meet certain sustainability criteria. We study two sustainable sourcing policies commonly observed in practice, which influence supplier process decisions by committing to offer sustainable products. Under a Sustainable Preferred sourcing policy, a buyer commits to offering a sustainable product if she can source sustainably produced parts from the supplier, but otherwise will offer a conventional product. In contrast, under a Sustainable Required sourcing policy, the buyer will only offer a sustainable product, and therefore will only source from the supplier if he has adopted a sustainable process. We find that both the Preferred and Required policies can deter the supplier from switching to a sustainable process when the premium for the sustainable product is high. Moreover, the buyer can actually benefit from using the Preferred policy to deter the supplier. The Required policy can induce the supplier to switch but only when the premium for the sustainable product is low. However, the buyer may still benefit from using the Required policy to induce switching. We also consider the effect of supplier competition and show that both the Preferred and Required policies can deter or induce the supplier from switching to a sustainable process. However, the buyer never finds it beneficial to deter a supplier in the presence of supplier competition, and will only use a sustainable sourcing policy to induce switching.
今天的消费者越来越关心制造他们产品的供应链的过程特征,例如过程对环境的影响。为了满足对可持续生产产品日益增长的需求,公司必须能够从供应商处采购可持续生产的部件。在本文中,我们分析了买家(制造商或零售商)何时以及如何使用采购政策来影响其供应商采用符合某些可持续性标准的可持续流程。我们研究了实践中常见的两种可持续采购政策,它们通过承诺提供可持续产品来影响供应商流程决策。在可持续优先采购政策下,如果买方可以从供应商处采购可持续生产的部件,则买方承诺提供可持续产品,否则将提供传统产品。相比之下,在可持续采购政策下,买方只会提供可持续的产品,因此,如果他采用了可持续的流程,他只会从供应商那里采购。我们发现,当可持续产品的溢价较高时,首选策略和要求策略都可以阻止供应商转向可持续过程。此外,买方实际上可以从使用优选政策来阻止供应商中获益。当可持续产品的溢价较低时,所需政策可以诱导供应商进行转换。然而,买方仍可能受益于使用Required策略来诱导转换。我们还考虑了供应商竞争的影响,并表明首选政策和要求政策都可以阻止或诱导供应商转向可持续过程。然而,在存在供应商竞争的情况下,买方永远不会发现阻止供应商是有益的,而只会使用可持续的采购政策来诱导转换。
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引用次数: 37
Time-Varying Energy and Stock Market Integration in Asia 亚洲时变能源与股票市场整合
Pub Date : 2017-09-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2961688
J. Batten, Harald Kinateder, Peter G. Szilagyi, N. Wagner
The degree of integration between energy and stock markets is critical for the diversification, risk management and funding decisions of global corporations and investors alike. We investigate the integration relation between ten major Asian stock markets and a diversified energy portfolio that comprises oil, coal and gas. Estimation of the relation in a time-varying asset pricing framework, which allows for regime switching, identifies two major regimes. The first regime represents periods of low energy-stock market integration, where markets tend to be segmented. It accounts for over two-thirds of the sample period during December 1992 to December 2015. The second regime represents periods of high integration, as characterized by limited diversification opportunities and increased levels of volatility. Also, corporate funding conditions are less favorable in the second regime. The two regimes differ in the way equity markets price energy risk. In addition to a positive energy-unrelated equity risk premium during the low integration regime, our results identify a significant positive energy-related equity risk premium during the high integration regime. Finally, we demonstrate that investors can use the conditional information of our integration model to outperform passive portfolio investment strategies in the stock and energy markets.
能源和股票市场之间的一体化程度对全球公司和投资者的多样化、风险管理和筹资决策至关重要。我们研究了亚洲十大股票市场与包括石油、煤炭和天然气在内的多元化能源投资组合之间的整合关系。在一个时变的资产定价框架中对关系的估计,允许制度切换,确定了两个主要制度。第一种模式代表低能源库存市场整合的时期,在这个时期,市场往往是分割的。在1992年12月至2015年12月的样本期内,它占了三分之二以上。第二种制度代表高度一体化的时期,其特点是多样化机会有限,波动性增加。此外,第二种制度下的企业融资条件也不那么有利。这两种机制在股票市场为能源风险定价的方式上有所不同。除了在低整合机制下与能源无关的股票风险溢价为正外,我们的研究结果还发现,在高整合机制下,与能源相关的股票风险溢价显著为正。最后,我们证明了投资者可以利用我们的整合模型的条件信息在股票和能源市场上优于被动组合投资策略。
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引用次数: 47
Environmental Benefits of Internet-Enabled C2C Closed Loop Supply Chains: A Quasi-Experimental Study of Craigslist 基于互联网的C2C闭环供应链的环境效益:Craigslist的准实验研究
Pub Date : 2017-09-19 DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2017.2963
Suvrat S. Dhanorkar
Recently, online matching platforms (e.g., Craigslist, FreeCycle, Gumtree) have enabled consumers to directly connect with each other to buy/sell used consumer goods (electronics, furniture, packaging, etc.) that would have otherwise ended up in the waste stream. Such matching platforms can facilitate the creation of consumer-to-consumer (C2C) closed-loop supply chains (CLSCs) for used goods, which can enhance product reuse and limit reliance on recycling and disposal alternatives. Yet, the true environmental benefits of these internet-enabled C2C CLSCs remain to be ascertained. In this study, I use a quasi-experimental setup to examine how Craigslist’s entry into various U.S. geographic markets impacts a key environmental outcome: municipal solid waste (MSW). I assemble a data set from various disparate sources to test my hypothesis. I find that, on average, Craigslist’s entry into a geographic market results in a 2%–6% annual reduction in MSW per capita generated. I conduct a variety of robustness check...
最近,在线配对平台(如Craigslist、FreeCycle、Gumtree)使消费者能够直接相互联系,购买/出售二手消费品(电子产品、家具、包装等),否则这些二手消费品最终会进入废物流。这种匹配平台可以促进二手商品的消费者对消费者(C2C)闭环供应链(CLSCs)的创建,这可以增强产品的再利用,并限制对回收和处置替代方案的依赖。然而,这些支持互联网的C2C CLSCs的真正环境效益仍有待确定。在这项研究中,我使用了一个准实验的设置来检验Craigslist进入不同的美国地理市场是如何影响一个关键的环境结果:城市固体废物(MSW)。我收集了一组来自不同来源的数据来检验我的假设。我发现,平均而言,Craigslist进入一个地理市场会使人均产生的城市生活垃圾每年减少2%-6%。我进行了各种稳健性检查……
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引用次数: 54
Revisiting Asian Financial Crisis for Envisioning Commodity Market Outlook (Presentation Slides) 回顾亚洲金融危机,展望商品市场前景(幻灯片)
Pub Date : 2017-09-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3631688
Ali Muhammad Lakdawala
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." – Rudiger Dornbusch

The above quote by German Economist holds good while analysing 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, as region enjoyed decades of buoyant growth, suddenly what started out as a currency crisis (Thai Baht) with large devaluation of domestic currencies, quickly evolved into a financial crisis in which banks were unable to repay their foreign debts. In turn, this lead to an economic crisis as domestic firms were starved of credit and went bankrupt : illiquidity turned quickly into insolvency.

Was Asian economy's growth model flawed or was it due to MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA : both good and bad due to which an external event triggered a move from a good to a bad one or was it a Commodity /Resource Curse???

The purpose of this paper is to shed some light on this questions, post which it will analyse how it impacted Key Commodities. Followed by understanding the on-going tectonic shift in global growth as baton gets exchanged between developed & developing nations. Finally concluding with analysing the market structure for commodities and estimating the price forecasts for next year.
“危机到来的时间比你想象的要长得多,而它发生的速度又比你想象的快得多。”- Rudiger dornbusch德国经济学家的上述引用在分析1997年亚洲金融危机时适用,因为该地区享受了数十年的蓬勃增长,突然开始的货币危机(泰铢)导致本币大幅贬值,迅速演变为银行无法偿还外债的金融危机。反过来,这又导致了一场经济危机,因为国内公司缺乏信贷并破产:流动性不足很快就变成了资不抵债。亚洲经济的增长模式是有缺陷的,还是由于多重均衡:既好又坏,由于外部事件触发了从好到坏的转变,或者是商品/资源诅咒?本文的目的是为了阐明这个问题,之后它将分析它如何影响关键商品。其次是理解全球增长正在发生的结构性转变,因为发达国家之间的接力棒正在交换。发展中国家。最后分析了商品的市场结构,并对明年的价格进行了预测。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Implication of Pursuing Management Education 追求管理教育的经济意义
Pub Date : 2017-09-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3034206
Amit Chakladar
The role of improved education, the essential part of most development strategies, has become controversial because achievement of expansion in education has not guaranteed improved economic conditions. This paper reviews the role of education in elevating economic well-being, with a special emphasis on the role of quality of education. It establishes strong evidence that the cognitive skills of the population – rather than mere possessing management qualification – are robustly related to the individual earnings, the distribution of income, and the economic growth. New empirical results demonstrate the importance of both the minimal and high level skills, the reciprocities of skills and the quality of economic institutions, and the robustness of the interdependence between skills and growth. International comparisons incorporating the expanded data on cognitive skills display higher business skill deficits compared to generally derived from mere management qualification in the developing countries. The magnitude of change needed makes clear that closing the economic gap with elite B-school will require major structural changes in schooling institutions.
作为大多数发展战略的基本组成部分,改善教育的作用已引起争议,因为实现教育的扩大并不能保证改善经济条件。本文回顾了教育在提高经济福利方面的作用,特别强调了教育质量的作用。它提供了强有力的证据,证明人口的认知技能——而不仅仅是拥有管理资格——与个人收入、收入分配和经济增长密切相关。新的实证结果证明了最低技能和高级技能的重要性,技能和经济制度质量的互惠性,以及技能和增长之间相互依赖的稳健性。纳入扩大的认知技能数据的国际比较显示,与发展中国家一般仅凭管理资格得出的数据相比,商业技能缺陷更高。所需变革的规模表明,缩小与精英商学院之间的经济差距,需要对教育机构进行重大结构性改革。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic Inventories Under Supply Chain Competition 供应链竞争下的战略库存
Pub Date : 2017-07-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3003887
Xi Li, Yanzhi Li, Ying‐ju Chen
Problem definition: We consider the effects of strategic inventory (SI) in the presence of chain-to-chain competition in a two-period model. Academic/practical relevance: Established findings suggest that SI may alleviate double marginalization and improve the efficiency of a decentralized distribution channel. However, no studies consider the role of SI under chain-to-chain competition. Methodology: We build a two-period model consisting of two competing supply chains, each with an upstream manufacturer and an exclusive retailer. The retailers compete on either price or quantity. We characterize the firms’ strategies under the concept of perfect Bayesian equilibrium. We consider cases where contracts are either observable or unobservable across supply chains. Results: (1) SI still exists under chain-to-chain competition. Retailers may carry more inventory when the competition becomes fiercer, which further intensifies the supply chain competition. (2) Different from the existing findings, SI may backfire and hurt all firms. Interestingly, firms may benefit from a higher inventory holding cost. (3) Under supply chain competition, the prisoner’s dilemma can arise if competition intensity is intermediate; in other words, manufacturers are better off without strategic inventory, and yet they cannot help allowing strategic inventory, which is the unique equilibrium. Managerial implications: Despite its appeal among firms of a single supply chain, the role of SI is altered or even reversed by chain-to-chain competition. Conventional wisdom on SI should be applied with caution.
问题定义:我们在一个两期模型中考虑了存在连锁竞争的战略库存(SI)的影响。学术/实践相关性:已有的研究结果表明,SI可以缓解双重边缘化,提高分散分销渠道的效率。然而,没有研究考虑到连锁竞争下SI的作用。方法:我们建立了一个由两个竞争供应链组成的两期模型,每个供应链都有上游制造商和独家零售商。零售商要么在价格上竞争,要么在数量上竞争。我们在完全贝叶斯均衡的概念下描述了企业的策略。我们考虑的是供应链中合同要么是可观察的,要么是不可观察的。结果:(1)连锁竞争下SI仍然存在。当竞争加剧时,零售商可能会增加库存,这进一步加剧了供应链的竞争。(2)与现有研究结果不同的是,科技创新可能适得其反,损害所有企业。有趣的是,企业可能会从较高的库存持有成本中受益。(3)在供应链竞争下,竞争强度为中等时,会产生囚徒困境;换句话说,制造商在没有战略库存的情况下会更好,但他们不得不允许战略库存,这是唯一的均衡。管理意义:尽管它在单一供应链的公司中具有吸引力,但供应链竞争改变了SI的作用,甚至逆转了SI的作用。关于SI的传统观点应该谨慎应用。
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引用次数: 18
期刊
Global Commodity Issues eJournal
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