We estimate the relationship between investment and unemployment in order to explore whether the medium-term relationship emphasized by Franco Modigliani survived the recent Great Recession. Our results indicate that the relationship held up, both employment and investment fell although the estimated coefficient of investment is slightly smaller when the period 2000-2015 is added to the 1960-2000 period.
{"title":"The Modigliani Puzzle Revisited: A Note","authors":"M. Katsimi, G. Zoega","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3129986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3129986","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the relationship between investment and unemployment in order to explore whether the medium-term relationship emphasized by Franco Modigliani survived the recent Great Recession. Our results indicate that the relationship held up, both employment and investment fell although the estimated coefficient of investment is slightly smaller when the period 2000-2015 is added to the 1960-2000 period.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121717854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides new information and data on how work and pay actually operated for skilled and semi-skilled men on large London construction projects in the early 1700s, and for the first time, offers detailed firm level evidence on the number of days per year worked by men. Construction workers' working days were bounded by structural factors of both supply and demand, men worked a far lower number of days than has been assumed until now. This has implications for our understanding of the 'industrious revolution', and industrialisation.
{"title":"Looking for Work? Or Looking for Workers? Days and Hours of Work in London Construction in the Eighteenth Century","authors":"J. Stephenson","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3128189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3128189","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides new information and data on how work and pay actually operated for skilled and semi-skilled men on large London construction projects in the early 1700s, and for the first time, offers detailed firm level evidence on the number of days per year worked by men. Construction workers' working days were bounded by structural factors of both supply and demand, men worked a far lower number of days than has been assumed until now. This has implications for our understanding of the 'industrious revolution', and industrialisation.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"91 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132801991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sleep studies suggest that girls go to sleep earlier, are more active in the morning, and cope with sleep deprivation better than boys. We provide the first causal evidence on how gender differences in sleep cycles can help explain the gender performance gap. We exploit over 240,000 assignment-level grades from a quasi-experiment with a community of middle and high schools where students' schedules alternated between morning and afternoon start times each month. Relative to girls, we find that boys' achievement benefits from a later start time. For classes taught at the beginning of the school day, our estimates explain up to 16% of the gender performance gap.
{"title":"Gender Performance Gaps: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence on the Role of Gender Differences in Sleep Cycles","authors":"Lester Lusher, Vasil Yasenov","doi":"10.1111/ecin.12483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12483","url":null,"abstract":"Sleep studies suggest that girls go to sleep earlier, are more active in the morning, and cope with sleep deprivation better than boys. We provide the first causal evidence on how gender differences in sleep cycles can help explain the gender performance gap. We exploit over 240,000 assignment-level grades from a quasi-experiment with a community of middle and high schools where students' schedules alternated between morning and afternoon start times each month. Relative to girls, we find that boys' achievement benefits from a later start time. For classes taught at the beginning of the school day, our estimates explain up to 16% of the gender performance gap.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125486015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using employer-employee panel data, we provide novel facts on how real wages and working hours within jobs responded to the UK’s Great Recession. In contrast to previous studies, our data enables us to address the cyclical composition of jobs. We show that firms were able to respond to the Great Recession with substantial real wage cuts and by recruiting more part-time workers. A one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate led to an average decline in real hourly wages of 2.8 per cent for new hires and 2.6 per cent for job stayers. Hours of new hires in entry-level jobs were also substantially procyclical, while job-stayer hours were nearly constant. Our findings suggest that models assuming rigid labour costs of new hires are not helpful for understanding the behaviour of unemployment over the business cycle.
{"title":"Real Wages and Hours in the Great Recession: Evidence from Firms and Their Entry-Level Jobs","authors":"Daniel Schaefer, Carl Singleton","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3109310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3109310","url":null,"abstract":"Using employer-employee panel data, we provide novel facts on how real wages and working hours within jobs responded to the UK’s Great Recession. In contrast to previous studies, our data enables us to address the cyclical composition of jobs. We show that firms were able to respond to the Great Recession with substantial real wage cuts and by recruiting more part-time workers. A one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate led to an average decline in real hourly wages of 2.8 per cent for new hires and 2.6 per cent for job stayers. Hours of new hires in entry-level jobs were also substantially procyclical, while job-stayer hours were nearly constant. Our findings suggest that models assuming rigid labour costs of new hires are not helpful for understanding the behaviour of unemployment over the business cycle.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131186676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I construct a monthly index of economic uncertainty for Australia. Economic uncertainty rose to historically high levels during the global financial crisis and remained elevated until late 2013. More recently, it has been a bit below its long-term average. The index of economic uncertainty: is higher around recessions, elections, monetary policy surprises and some major geopolitical events; tends to increase faster than it decreases; and is driven by both domestic and foreign factors. I use the index to assess how uncertainty affects the Australian economy. Consistent with the 'real options' channel of uncertainty, I find that it reduces investment and employment growth. Similarly, uncertainty raises the household saving ratio and reduces consumption growth for durable goods, consistent with the 'precautionary savings' channel of uncertainty. My results suggest that economic uncertainty can be an important independent driver of economic outcomes. It is therefore worth considering in policy and empirical work.
{"title":"Measuring Economic Uncertainty and its Effects","authors":"Angus Moore","doi":"10.1111/1475-4932.12356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12356","url":null,"abstract":"I construct a monthly index of economic uncertainty for Australia. Economic uncertainty rose to historically high levels during the global financial crisis and remained elevated until late 2013. More recently, it has been a bit below its long-term average. The index of economic uncertainty: is higher around recessions, elections, monetary policy surprises and some major geopolitical events; tends to increase faster than it decreases; and is driven by both domestic and foreign factors. I use the index to assess how uncertainty affects the Australian economy. Consistent with the 'real options' channel of uncertainty, I find that it reduces investment and employment growth. Similarly, uncertainty raises the household saving ratio and reduces consumption growth for durable goods, consistent with the 'precautionary savings' channel of uncertainty. My results suggest that economic uncertainty can be an important independent driver of economic outcomes. It is therefore worth considering in policy and empirical work.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120529730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Russian Abstract: Докладът разглежда ролята и значението на обществените служби по заетостта (ОСЗ), отчитащи съвременните тенденции в социалното и икономическо развитие в Европа и подчертавайки особеностите в Република България. Основните принципи на работа са свързани с динамиката на пазара на труда и необходимостта от прилагане на нови подходи и промени в работата на обществените служби по заетостта. English Abstract: The paper discusses the role and significance of public employment services (PES) considering contemporary trends in social and economic development in Europe and underlining peculiarities in the Republic of Bulgaria. The main principles of work are concerned in connection with the dynamics of labor market and the need of application of new approaches and changes in the work of public employment services.
{"title":"Влияние на публичните служби за заетост върху динамиката на пазара на труда в България (Impact of Public Employment Services on the Dynamics of Labor Market in Bulgaria)","authors":"Venelin Terziev, Bogidar Lukarski, Ekaterina Arabska","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3142741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3142741","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Russian Abstract:</b> Докладът разглежда ролята и значението на обществените служби по заетостта (ОСЗ), отчитащи съвременните тенденции в социалното и икономическо развитие в Европа и подчертавайки особеностите в Република България. Основните принципи на работа са свързани с динамиката на пазара на труда и необходимостта от прилагане на нови подходи и промени в работата на обществените служби по заетостта. <b>English Abstract:</b> The paper discusses the role and significance of public employment services (PES) considering contemporary trends in social and economic development in Europe and underlining peculiarities in the Republic of Bulgaria. The main principles of work are concerned in connection with the dynamics of labor market and the need of application of new approaches and changes in the work of public employment services.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123096216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Theil indices (Theil, 1967) are widely used measures for studying the degree of concentration and inequality in size income distributions. Their property of decomposability makes these indices especially useful in applied economic analysis. This paper is a synthetic review of the Theil indices for the most important and popular parametric income distributions. Extensions to higher dimensions are sketched.
{"title":"The Theil Indices in Parametric Families of Income Distributions—A Short Review","authors":"J. Sarabia, V. Jordá, Lorena Remuzgo","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12260","url":null,"abstract":"The Theil indices (Theil, 1967) are widely used measures for studying the degree of concentration and inequality in size income distributions. Their property of decomposability makes these indices especially useful in applied economic analysis. This paper is a synthetic review of the Theil indices for the most important and popular parametric income distributions. Extensions to higher dimensions are sketched.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125943923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"World Economic Prospects Monthly","authors":"B. May","doi":"10.1111/1468-0319.12369","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0319.12369","url":null,"abstract":"Overview: all set for an even better year in 2018","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"186 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131735164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jason Brown, Maeve Maloney, J. Rappaport, Aaron Smalter Hall
Centralized employment remains a benchmark stylization of metropolitan land use.To address its empirical relevance, we delineate "central employment zones" (CEZs)- central business districts together with nearby concentrated employment|for 183 metropolitan areas in 2000. To do so, we first subjectively classify which census tracts in a training sample of metros belong to their metro's CEZ and then use a learning algorithm to construct a function that predicts our judgment. {{p}} Applying this prediction function to the full cross section of metros estimates the probability we would judge each census tract as belonging to its metro's CEZ. Using a high probability threshold for tract inclusion conservatively delineates a predicted CEZ for each metro. On average, the conservatively predicted CEZs account for only 12 percent of metropolitan employment in 2000. But the distribution of shares is positively skewed, with the conservatively predicted CEZs accounting for at least 20 percent of employment in 29 metros. Employment centralization is considerably higher for agglomerative occupations|those that arguably bene t most from face-to-face contact. The conservatively predicted CEZs account for at least 33 percent of agglomerative employment in 24 metros and at least 50 percent of legal employment in 79 metros.
{"title":"How Centralized is U.S. Metropolitan Employment?","authors":"Jason Brown, Maeve Maloney, J. Rappaport, Aaron Smalter Hall","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3080421","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3080421","url":null,"abstract":"Centralized employment remains a benchmark stylization of metropolitan land use.To address its empirical relevance, we delineate \"central employment zones\" (CEZs)- central business districts together with nearby concentrated employment|for 183 metropolitan areas in 2000. To do so, we first subjectively classify which census tracts in a training sample of metros belong to their metro's CEZ and then use a learning algorithm to construct a function that predicts our judgment. {{p}} Applying this prediction function to the full cross section of metros estimates the probability we would judge each census tract as belonging to its metro's CEZ. Using a high probability threshold for tract inclusion conservatively delineates a predicted CEZ for each metro. On average, the conservatively predicted CEZs account for only 12 percent of metropolitan employment in 2000. But the distribution of shares is positively skewed, with the conservatively predicted CEZs accounting for at least 20 percent of employment in 29 metros. Employment centralization is considerably higher for agglomerative occupations|those that arguably bene t most from face-to-face contact. The conservatively predicted CEZs account for at least 33 percent of agglomerative employment in 24 metros and at least 50 percent of legal employment in 79 metros.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"183 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129652202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dennis J. Fixler, David S. Johnson, Andrew D. Craig, Kevin J. Furlong
Recent headlines frequently refer to rising inequality and its implication on economic growth and social welfare. Addressing the latter is difficult and requires more than simply looking at GDP, as Kuznets long ago pointed out. In this paper we focus on the importance of the income measure underlying the inequality measure when examining the relationship between GDP growth and inequality. We create a mapping using Census Bureau household survey data and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consumer expenditure data to create distributional measures of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) personal income. We show that for the period 2000-2012, inequality using personal income is substantively lower than inequality measured using Census Bureau money income, and the trends in both inequality and median income are different. This demonstrates the importance of using a measure a national accounts based measure of income when examining the relationships between inequality and growth.
{"title":"A Consistent Data Series to Evaluate Growth and Inequality in the National Accounts","authors":"Dennis J. Fixler, David S. Johnson, Andrew D. Craig, Kevin J. Furlong","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12324","url":null,"abstract":"Recent headlines frequently refer to rising inequality and its implication on economic growth and social welfare. Addressing the latter is difficult and requires more than simply looking at GDP, as Kuznets long ago pointed out. In this paper we focus on the importance of the income measure underlying the inequality measure when examining the relationship between GDP growth and inequality. We create a mapping using Census Bureau household survey data and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consumer expenditure data to create distributional measures of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) personal income. We show that for the period 2000-2012, inequality using personal income is substantively lower than inequality measured using Census Bureau money income, and the trends in both inequality and median income are different. This demonstrates the importance of using a measure a national accounts based measure of income when examining the relationships between inequality and growth.","PeriodicalId":125977,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Employment","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132775961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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