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Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Markets Efficiency under Speculative Bubbles: a Non-Normal and Non-Linear Entropy-based Approach 投机泡沫下货币政策对金融市场效率的影响:一个基于非正态和非线性熵的方法
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.24275/UAM/AZC/DCSH/AE/2019V34N86/ALONSO
Angélica Alonso-Rivera, Salvador Cruz.Aké, Francisco Venegas-Martínez
This paper examines, through the concept of mutual information based on Shannon’s entropy, the impact of monetary policy on the loss of efficiency in the financial markets due to speculative bubbles. The proposed information measure is useful to quantify the efficiency with which stock markets respond to the implementation of monetary policy. The findings show that an increase in both money supply and credit growth, as well as declining interest rates, lead to strong market inefficiencies during the initial periods of formation of a bubble. Moreover, empirical evidence suggests that when a loose monetary policy (money supply is expanded and is accessible to agents to encourage economic growth) generates inefficiencies, its instruments are not effective to realign the performance of financial markets. JEL Classification: E5, G14, D84, C60.
本文通过基于香农熵的互信息概念,考察了货币政策对投机泡沫导致的金融市场效率损失的影响。所提出的信息度量有助于量化股票市场对货币政策实施的反应效率。研究结果表明,货币供应和信贷增长的增加,以及利率的下降,在泡沫形成的最初阶段导致了市场的严重低效。此外,经验证据表明,当宽松的货币政策(货币供应扩大,并可供代理人使用以鼓励经济增长)产生效率低下时,其工具无法有效地调整金融市场的表现。JEL分类:E5, G14, D84, C60。
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引用次数: 2
Efectos de la aplicación de un impuesto en México: caso carne de cerdo 在墨西哥实施税收的影响:以猪肉为例
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.24275/UAM/AZC/DCSH/AE/2019V34N86/REBOLLAR
S. Rebollar-Rebollar
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引用次数: 2
Emprendimiento empresarial, inversión en I+D y marco institucional 创业、研发投资和制度框架
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.24275/UAM/AZC/DCSH/AE/2019V34N86/VARELA
Rogelio Varela Llamas
En este documento se analiza el impacto que tiene sobre la creacion de nuevas empresas la inversion privada en I+D y los costos de apertura de empresas como variable proxy del marco institucional. Se integra informacion correspondiente a las 32 entidades federativas de Mexico durante los anos de 2009 y 2014, permitiendo estimar regresiones de corte transversal y con datos fusionados a traves de un metodo de estimacion robusta. Los resultados sugieren que ambas variables son relevantes para explicar las actividades de emprendimiento que derivan en la creacion de empresas, sin embargo, se determina que los costos de apertura tienen un mayor impacto que la inversion en I+D de acuerdo a la magnitud de las elasticidades estimadas. JEL: O3, D2, O12 Abstract This document analyzes the impact it has on the creation of new companies, private investment in R & D and the costs of opening companies as a proxy variable of the institutional framework. Information corresponding to the 32 states of Mexico is integrated during the years of 2009 and 2014, allowing the estimation of crosssection regressions and merged data through a robust estimation method. The results suggest that both variables are relevant to explain the entrepreneurial activities that result in the creation of companies, however, it is determined that opening costs have a greater impact than investment in R & D according to the magnitude of the estimated elasticities. JEL: O3, D2, O12
本文分析了私营研发投资和创业成本作为制度框架的代理变量对新企业创建的影响。本研究的目的是评估墨西哥联邦实体在2009年和2014年的数据,允许通过稳健的估计方法估计横断面回归和合并数据。本研究的目的是评估创业成本对企业创建的影响,并评估创业成本对企业创建的影响。本文分析了创业成本对企业创建的影响,以及创业成本对企业创建的影响。JEL: O3, D2, O12摘要本文件分析了它对新公司的创建、研发方面的私人投资以及作为制度框架可变代理的开办公司的成本的影响。在2009年和2014年期间,对墨西哥32个州的信息进行了整合,允许通过稳健估计方法进行交叉回归估计和合并数据。结果表明,这两个变量都与解释导致公司创建的创业活动有关,但是,根据估计弹性的大小,确定开放成本比研发投资的影响更大。JEL: O3, D2, O12
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引用次数: 1
Principios básicos de microeconometría y del uso de variables instrumentales para la inferencia causal 微观计量经济学的基本原理和因果推理工具变量的使用
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.24275/UAM/AZC/DCSH/AE/2019V34N86/CEBALLOS
Owen Eli Ceballos Mina
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引用次数: 1
Desigualdad y justicia en la remuneración por género en México y la frontera norte 墨西哥和北部边境性别薪酬的不平等和公正
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.24275/UAM/AZC/DCSH/AE/2019V34N86/LLAMAS
Linda Irene Llamas Rembao, L. Reynoso, Luis Gutiérrez Flores
Se analizan los salarios y su desigualdad en Mexico, por regiones y grupo de trabajadores. Considerando el enfoque teorico de bienestar social (Cowell, 2011) se indaga en la variacion de la desigualdad salarial en funcion de distintos valores de juicio etico que asignamos en la distribucion. Empleamos un indice novedoso, el Gini-Atkinson que permite introducir distintos parametros de aversion para los indices de Gini y Atkinson respectivamente. El primero con el objetivo de mover una ponderacion a lo largo de la distribucion salarial y el segundo, para asignar los requerimientos de equidad en la funcion de bienestar que presentan los trabajadores. La aplicacion empirica se realiza en asalariados formales (hombres y mujeres) en la frontera norte de Mexico y en el resto del pais. La frontera presenta niveles inferiores en desigualdad y las brechas de genero son menores con respecto del pais, pero con distinta incidencia entre hombres y mujeres. Clasificacion JEL: J31. Abstract We examine inequality on wages in Mexico, by region and gender. Based on social wellbeing theoretical approach (Cowell, 2011), we assign different ethical judgment values to analyze the variation of inequality along the wage distribution. We use a novel index, the Gini-Atkinson, which allows introducing different aversion parameters for both, the Gini and Atkinson indexes. The former, by moving the weighting along the wage distribution and the latter, by introducing an equity principle in the welfare function of wage earners. The empirical application considers only formal wage earners (men and women) in the northern border of Mexico and the rest of the country. Results reveal that the border has lower levels of inequality and gender gaps are smaller with respect to the country as well, but with different incidence between men and women. JEL Codes: J31
本文分析了墨西哥的工资和不平等,按地区和工人群体。本文提出了一种基于社会福利理论的方法(Cowell, 2011),探讨了我们在分配中分配的不同伦理判断价值对工资不平等的变化。我们使用了一个新的指标,基尼-阿特金森指数,它允许分别为基尼指数和阿特金森指数引入不同的厌恶参数。第一个目标是在工资分配中移动权重,第二个目标是在工人呈现的福利函数中分配公平要求。在墨西哥北部边境和该国其他地区,对正式雇员(男性和女性)进行实证应用。与全国相比,边境地区的不平等程度较低,性别差距较小,但男性和女性的发生率不同。JEL分类:J31。摘要我们按地区和性别考察墨西哥的工资不平等。基于社会福利理论方法(Cowell, 2011),我们分配了不同的伦理判断价值来分析工资分配中的不平等变化。We use the Gini-Atkinson初期index, which allows在不同aversion parameters for both the基尼和阿特金森indexes。前一种,通过在工资分配中转移权重,后一种,通过在工资收入者的福利职能中引入公平原则。实证应用只考虑墨西哥北部边境和该国其他地区的正式工资收入者(男女)。结果表明,边境地区的不平等程度较低,性别差距也较小,但男女之间的影响不同。JEL代码:J31
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引用次数: 1
Factores Determinantes de la Responsabilidad Social Empresarial (RSE). Caso aplicado a México y Brasil 企业社会责任的决定因素。案例适用于墨西哥和巴西
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.24275/UAM/AZC/DCSH/AE/2019V34N86/MENDEZ
Alma Berenice Méndez Sáenz, M. R. García, Klender Aimer Cortez Alejandro
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引用次数: 6
El juego de la vida: una interpretación basada en el contagio de la euforia durante la formación de burbujas especulativas 生命的游戏:一种基于投机泡沫形成期间欣快感传播的解释
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.24275/UAM/AZC/DCSH/AE/2019V34N86/GOMEZ
Elsy Lizbeth Gómez Ramos, Héctor Adrián Guerrero Martínez
Experimental studies have shown evidence that the dynamics in the stock markets generate that some agents encourage high expectations about an asset, as it is understood that it happens in a speculative bubble. Therefore, modeling the contagion of euphoria (expectations) can help to identify behavioral scenarios in a complex environment. The purpose of this research is to perform computer simulations using cellular automata (ACs) to emulate the contagion of euphoria during the formation of a speculative bubble. Specifically, The Game of Life by Conway is proposed as an example to simulate complex dynamics where the displacement of individuals is an essential element. The conclusions indicate that under this proposal only a few investors and a strategic location are required to infect a significant number of market participants.
实验研究表明,股票市场的动态产生了一些代理人鼓励对某种资产的高期望的证据,因为它被理解为发生在投机泡沫中。因此,模拟欣快感(期望)的传染可以帮助识别复杂环境中的行为情景。本研究的目的是使用细胞自动机(ACs)进行计算机模拟,以模拟投机泡沫形成期间欣快感的传染。具体来说,我们以Conway的The Game of Life为例来模拟复杂的动态,其中个体的位移是一个必不可少的元素。结论表明,在这一建议下,只需要少数投资者和战略位置就可以影响大量市场参与者。
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引用次数: 0
Análisis de la productividad total de factores en la industria de alta tecnología en México, 2003-2013 2003-2013年墨西哥高科技产业全要素生产率分析
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.24275/UAM/AZC/DCSH/AE/2019V34N86/MENDOZA
M. Ramos, Eliseo Díaz González
El objetivo de la presente investigacion es determinar la contribucion de los factores de produccion al desarrollo de la industria manufacturera de alta tecnologia en Mexico para el periodo 2003-2013. La aproximacion metodologica esta enfocada en el calculo de una funcion de produccion Translog, la cual evalua la productividad de cada factor y la productividad conjunta, ademas de obtener resultados a nivel de ano censal, estatal y por rama economica. Los principales hallazgos de la investigacion indican que la productividad por progreso tecnologico muestra un proceso acelerado, debido al crecimiento de la industria y la ampliacion de su presencia en el pais, siendo el factor trabajo el principal determinante. Clasificacion JEL: O Desarrollo economico, innovacion, cambio tecnologico y crecimiento, O4 crecimiento Economico y Productividad Agregada; O47 Estudios Empiricos sobre Crecimiento Economico, Productividad agregada, convergencia de la produccion entre paises. Abstract The aim of the present investigation is determining the productive component that contributes most to the growth and development of the Total Factor Productivity of the High Technology Manufacturing Industry in Mexico during the 2003-2013 period. The methodological approach is focused on the calculation of a Translog production function, which allows to evaluate the productivity of each factor and the joint production productivity, in addition to the results obtained on the Total Factor Productivity for the industry at the census, state and economic branch level. The main findings of the research indicate that the productivity by technological progress in the high-tech manufacturing industries shows an accelerated process due to the growth of the industry and greater presence in the country, with labor being the main determinant. JEL Classification: O; O4; O47
本研究的目的是确定生产要素对2003-2013年墨西哥高科技制造业发展的贡献。该方法的重点是计算一个超对数生产函数,该函数评估每个因素的生产率和联合生产率,并在人口普查、州和经济分支水平上获得结果。这项研究的主要结果表明,由于工业的增长和其在该国存在的扩大,技术进步的生产率显示出一个加速的过程,而劳动因素是主要的决定因素。JEL分类:O经济发展、创新、技术变革与增长,O4经济增长与总生产率;O47关于经济增长、总生产率、国家间生产趋同的实证研究。本研究的目的是确定2003-2013年期间对墨西哥高技术制造业全要素生产率增长和发展贡献最大的生产成分。该方法的重点是计算一个跨对数生产函数,以便评估每一要素的生产力和联合生产生产力,以及在人口普查、国家和经济部门一级对该行业的全要素生产力所取得的结果。研究的主要结果表明,由于工业的增长和在该国的存在程度的增加,高科技制造业的技术进步生产率的提高速度加快,劳动是主要的决定因素。JEL分类:O;O4;O47
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引用次数: 5
Entendiendo el consenso en la profesión económica en México 理解墨西哥经济专业的共识
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.24275/UAM/AZC/DCSH/AE/2019V34N86/ANDERE
Jorge L. Andere, Jorge Luis Canché Escamilla
En este trabajo se explora el consenso en grupos de una poblacion definida de academicos de la Ciencia Economica en Mexico, en proposiciones sobre opiniones economicas, aspectos cientificos de la Economia y supuestos economicos. Se aplicaron procedimientos para determinar el consenso al interior y entre grupos, cuyos resultados indican que los encuestados que consideran que los economistas concuerdan en los asuntos fundamentales, tienden a exhibir mayores grados de consenso y ser mas favorables a una economia abierta y a la Economia Neoclasica, que aquellos que no creen en la existencia de dicho acuerdo. Los integrantes de ambos grupos apoyan politicas gubernamentales de intervencion en la economia, pero de tipo diferente. JEL: A11, A14, A20 Abstract In this paper, we explore consensus on economic opinions, economics’ scientific aspects, and economics assumptions, in groups of a well-defined population of economics academiccommunity in Mexico. We apply procedures to determine consensus within and between groups. Outcomes indicate that surveyed individuals which consider economists agree on fundamental issues tend to exhibit both higher degrees of consensus as more favorable views towards open economy and neoclassical economics, than those which do not consider economists agree on fundamental issues. Members of both groups support state interventions in the economy, but of a different kind. JEL: A11, A14, A20
在这一过程中,我们分析了墨西哥经济科学学者对经济观点、经济科学方面和经济假设的命题的共识。执行了程序来确定内部的共识和团体间,调查结果显示,受访经济学家认为的基本问题,往往显示最大程度的共识,成为更有利于一个经济开放和经济Neoclasica,那些不相信这项协议的存在。这两个群体的成员都支持政府干预经济的政策,但类型不同。JEL: A11, A14, A20摘要在本文中,我们探讨了墨西哥经济学界定义良好的群体对经济观点、经济学科学方面和经济学假设的共识。我们采用程序在群体内部和群体之间建立共识。结果表明,与不考虑经济学家同意基本问题的人相比,接受调查的经济学家在开放经济和新古典经济学方面往往表现出更高程度的共识和更有利的观点。这两个集团的成员都支持国家对经济的干预,但方式不同。JEL: A11, A14, A20
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引用次数: 4
La Contribución de la Cultura y el Turismo al Empleo en México: Una estimación de los Multiplicadores Tipo I y Tipo II 文化和旅游对墨西哥就业的贡献:第一类和第二类乘数的估计
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.24275/UAM/AZC/DCSH/AE/2019V34N86/ARRIAGA
Rosalinda Arriaga Navarrete
This work makes a comparative interindustrial analysis of tourism and culture with an aggregate sectorial approach, for the sectorial compatibility of the input output matrix of 2008, with the respective satellite accounts. For this, the levels of sectoral linkages of these activities are identified and estimates of employment coefficients and multipliers are made, which allow us to assess the potential economic impact of these economic activities, by estimating the direct, indirect and induced effects who have spending on tourism and culture on the Mexican economy. The results reveal that the cultural sector has greater linkages due to interindustry demand and induced consumption demand, but the economic weight and the direct coefficients in tourism employment determine that the final effect is higher in the tourism sector. Clasification JEL: C67, E24, L80, Z10
本研究采用综合部门方法对旅游和文化进行了产业间比较分析,以确定2008年投入产出矩阵与各自卫星账户的部门兼容性。为此,确定了这些活动的部门联系水平,并对就业系数和乘数进行了估计,这使我们能够通过估计在旅游和文化上消费对墨西哥经济的直接、间接和诱发影响,来评估这些经济活动的潜在经济影响。研究结果表明,文化产业对产业间需求和诱导消费需求具有更大的关联性,但旅游就业的经济权重和直接系数决定了旅游产业的最终效应更高。分类JEL: C67, E24, L80, Z10
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Análisis Económico
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