Health Care Management Science最新文献

Vaccine hesitancy continues to be a public health challenge. This study explores the dynamic interplay between disease transmission, evolving vaccination opinions, and targeted vaccination campaigns. Using a numerical experiment calibrated to the COVID-19 epidemic in King County, WA, during 2023, we optimize vaccination campaigns across various demographics. Our findings suggest that vaccination campaigns are most effective in societies with medium vaccine hesitancy, with optimal outcomes achieved by focusing on the 18-34 age group in the most densely populated regions. In societies with low hesitancy, campaigns may be unnecessary, and resources should target rural areas and the 0-17 age range to maximize impact. In high hesitancy societies, campaigns are ineffective. In such cases, efforts should focus on reducing vaccine risk perceptions. This research advances the understanding of dynamic behavioral responses to vaccination campaigns through evolutionary game theory, moving beyond models that assume static vaccination behavior. By employing a demographic-based networked compartmental model, it derives actionable and interpretable campaign strategies, providing valuable guidance for real-world implementation.

Neonatology care, the care for premature and severely ill babies, is increasingly confronted with capacity challenges. The entire perinatal care chain, including the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU), operates at high occupation levels. This results in refusals, leading to undesirable transports to other centers or even abroad, which affects quality of care, length of stay, and safety of these babies, and places a heavy burden on patients, their families, and involved caregivers. In this work we assess the improvement potential of network collaboration strategies that focus on reducing the number of patient transports, by allowing flexible deployment of nurses over the existing NICUs to match short-term changes in patient demand. We develop a discrete event simulation with an integrated optimization module for shift allocation and transfer optimization. A case study for the Dutch national NICU network, involving 9 NICU locations and current transport of 15% of all NICU patients in case of no flexible deployment, shows the potential of transporting staff instead of patients: About 70% of patient transports can be eliminated in case of 15-50% capacity sharing, and about 35% of nationwide transports is eliminated with up to 15% capacity sharing in the Dutch's main conurbation area only.

As social and economic conditions are key determinants of HIV, the United States 'National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS)', in addition to care and treatment, aims to address mental health, unemployment, food insecurity, and housing instability, as part of its strategic plan for the 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' initiative. Although mechanistic models of HIV play a key role in evaluating intervention strategies, social conditions are typically not part of the modeling framework. Challenges include the unavailability of coherent statistical data for social conditions and behaviors. We developed a method, combining undirected graphical modeling with copula methods, to integrate disparate data sources, to estimate joint probability distributions for social conditions and behaviors. We incorporated these in a national-level network model, Progression and Transmission of HIV (PATH 4.0), to simulate behaviors as functions of social conditions and HIV transmissions as a function of behaviors. As a demonstration for the potential applications of such a model, we conducted two hypothetical what-if intervention analyses to estimate the impact of an ideal 100% efficacious intervention strategy. The first analysis modeled care behavior (using viral suppression as proxy) as a function of depression, neighborhood, housing, poverty, education, insurance, and employment status. The second modeled sexual behaviors (number of partners and condom-use) as functions of employment, housing, poverty, and education status, among persons who exchange sex. HIV transmissions and disease progression were then simulated as functions of behaviors to estimate incidence reductions. Social determinants are key drivers of many infectious and non-infectious diseases. Our work enables the development of decision support tools to holistically evaluate the syndemics of health and social inequity.

Ambulances must be strategically placed to ensure timely patient care and save lives. The allocation problem considered in the current paper optimally distributes a fixed number of ambulances over predetermined bases with limited capacity. Ambulance allocation problems are usually solved through historical demand. In such cases, researchers process call record data that is shared by ambulance service providers. This paper proposes an alternative demand metric, namely the meters of covered road. Road network information is widely and publicly available, making it easily accessible. We demonstrate for a real ambulance region that the road coverage demand metric performs similarly to the historical call record metric in the case of static allocation, and that it outperforms when dynamic ambulance management is used.

In the context of increasing investment in healthcare, the key issue of China's healthcare system reform is how to maximize output and ensure the equity of resource allocation. The generalized DEA-based resource allocation model (Model 1) pursues the maximization of DMU efficiency in resource allocation without considering equity, and it could yield a multi-solution problem by considering only the outputs instead of the inputs in the objective function. Thus, a DEA-based centralized resource allocation model with a balance between efficiency and equity (Model 2) is proposed, in which efficiency and equity are measured by output and input indicators in the objective function simultaneously, this could be more consistent with the essence of the DEA method. Model 2 effectively prevents the multi-solution problem by introducing both outputs and inputs into the objective function, and its Pareto-efficiency is proven. The main advantage of the proposed Model 2 is that efficiency and equity can be optimized in resource allocation; in particular, it can ensure equity for all DMUs in both absolute and relative terms. Furthermore, we illustrate and examine the application of Model 2 with centralized healthcare service resource allocation across 31 provinces in mainland China. We investigate the properties and effectiveness of Model 2 by comparison with Model 1 in terms of both efficiency and equity. Efficiency and equity are measured from three perspectives: efficiency values and slacks, input and output indicators, and allocation deviation. The results prove that Model 2 is superior to Model 1 in terms of both efficiency and equity.

In this paper we develop a new multi-objective simulated annealing (MOSA) algorithm to generate optimal testing protocols for infectious diseases, using the COVID-19 pandemic as our context. A SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) epidemiological model is embedded as the computational platform for our MOSA algorithm to optimize testing protocols for screening across three joint objectives: minimum cost of test materials, minimum total infections over the testing horizon, and minimum number of false negatives over the horizon. We demonstrate the application of this optimization tool to recommend screening protocols for K-12 school districts in the U.S. State of North Carolina. Our approach is scalable by population coverage and can be employed at the level of individual school districts or regional collections of districts, individual schools or collections of schools across a district, business sites, or nursing homes, among other congregate settings where individuals may be screened prior to gaining entry to the site. The algorithm can be solved two ways, generating either independent optimal protocols across individual testing locations, or a common protocol covering all locations in the collection of testing sites. Our findings can be used to inform policy decisions to guide the development of effective testing strategies for controlling the spread of COVID-19 or other pandemic diseases in a wide range of congregate settings across various geographic regions.

Forecasting emergency medical service (EMS) call volumes is critical for resource allocation and planning. The development of many commercial and free software packages has made a variety of forecasting methods accessible. Practitioners, however, are left with little guidance on selecting the most appropriate method for their needs. Using 5 years of data from 3 cities in Alberta, we compute exponential smoothing and benchmark forecasts for 8-hour periods for each ambulance station catchment area and with a forecast horizon of two weeks-a spatio-temporal resolution appropriate for tactical planning. The methods that we consider differ on three spectra: the number and type of time-series components, whether forecasts are computed individually or jointly, and the way in which forecasts at a specific resolution are converted to forecasts at the resolution of interest. We find that it is important to include a weekly seasonal component when forecasting EMS demand. Multiplicative seasonality, however, shows no benefit over additive seasonality. Adding other time-series components (e.g., trend, ARMA errors, Box-Cox transformation) does not improve performance. Spatial resolutions of station catchment area and lower, and temporal resolution of 4-24 hours perform similarly. We adapt an existing hierarchical forecasting framework to a two-dimensional spatio-temporal hierarchy, but find that hierarchical reconciliation of forecasts does not improve performance at the forecast resolution of interest for tactical planning. Neither does jointly forecasting time series. We show that added complexity does not materially improve forecasting performance. The simple methods that we find perform well are easy to implement and interpret, making implementation in practice more likely. In a simulation study we alter the empirical weekly patterns and demonstrate how extreme differences between the weekly seasonality patterns of different regions cause hierarchically-reconciled bottom-up approaches to outperform top-down approaches.

The issue of left against medical advice (LAMA) patients is common in today's emergency departments (EDs). This issue represents a medico-legal risk and may result in potential readmission, mortality, or revenue loss. Thus, understanding the factors that cause patients to "leave against medical advice" is vital to mitigate and potentially eliminate these adverse outcomes. This paper proposes a framework for studying the factors that affect LAMA in EDs. The framework integrates machine learning, metaheuristic optimization, and model interpretation techniques. Metaheuristic optimization is used for hyperparameter optimization-one of the main challenges of machine learning model development. Adaptive tabu simulated annealing (ATSA) metaheuristic algorithm is utilized for optimizing the parameters of extreme gradient boosting (XGB). The optimized XGB models are used to predict the LAMA outcomes for patients under treatment in ED. The designed algorithms are trained and tested using four data groups which are created using feature selection. The model with the best predictive performance is then interpreted using the SHaply Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The results show that best model has an area under the curve (AUC) and sensitivity of 76% and 82%, respectively. The best model was explained using SHAP method.

Supply chain disruptions and demand disruptions make it challenging for hospital pharmacy managers to determine how much inventory to have on-hand. Having insufficient inventory leads to drug shortages, while having excess inventory leads to drug waste. To mitigate drug shortages and waste, hospital pharmacy managers can implement inventory policies that account for supply chain disruptions and adapt these inventory policies over time to respond to demand disruptions. Demand disruptions were prevalent during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, it remains unclear how a drug's shortage-waste weighting (i.e., concern for shortages versus concern for waste) as well as the duration of and time between supply chain disruptions influence the benefits (or detriments) of adapting to demand disruptions. We develop an adaptive inventory system (i.e., inventory policies change over time) and conduct an extensive numerical analysis using real-world demand data from the University of Michigan's Central Pharmacy to address this research question. For a fixed mean duration of and mean time between supply chain disruptions, we find a drug's shortage-waste weighting dictates the magnitude of the benefits (or detriments) of adaptive inventory policies. We create a ranking procedure that provides a way of discerning which drugs are of most concern and illustrates which policies to update given that a limited number of inventory policies can be updated. When applying our framework to over 300 drugs, we find a decision-maker needs to update a very small proportion of drugs (e.g., $<5\%$ ) at any point in time to get the greatest benefits of adaptive inventory policies.