Health Care Management Science最新文献

The Dorfman pooled testing scheme is a process in which individual specimens (e.g., blood, urine, swabs, etc.) are pooled and tested together; if the merged sample tests positive for infection, then each specimen from the pool is tested individually. Through this procedure, laboratories can reduce the expected number of tests required to screen the population, as individual tests are only carried out when the pooled test detects an infection. Several different partitions of the population can be used to form the pools. In this study, we analyze the performance of ordered partitions, those in which subjects with similar probability of infection are pooled together. We derive sufficient conditions under which ordered partitions outperform other types of partitions in terms of minimizing the expected number of tests, the expected number of false negatives, and the expected number of false positive classifications. These sufficient conditions can be easily verified in practical applications once the dilution effect has been estimated. We also propose a measure of equity and present conditions under which this measure is maximized by ordered partitions.

We consider the problem of setting appropriate patient-to-nurse ratios in a hospital, an issue that is both complex and widely debated. There has been only limited effort to take advantage of the extensive empirical results from the medical literature to help construct analytical decision models for developing upper limits on patient-to-nurse ratios that are more patient- and nurse-oriented. For example, empirical studies have shown that each additional patient assigned per nurse in a hospital is associated with increases in mortality rates, length-of-stay, and nurse burnout. Failure to consider these effects leads to disregarded potential cost savings resulting from providing higher quality of care and fewer nurse turnovers. Thus, we present a nurse staffing model that incorporates patient length-of-stay, nurse turnover, and costs related to patient-to-nurse ratios. We present results based on data collected from three participating hospitals, the American Hospital Association (AHA), and the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD). By incorporating patient and nurse outcomes, we show that lower patient-to-nurse ratios can potentially provide hospitals with financial benefits in addition to improving the quality of care. Furthermore, our results show that higher policy patient-to-nurse ratio upper limits may not be as harmful in smaller hospitals, but lower policy patient-to-nurse ratios may be necessary for larger hospitals. These results suggest that a "one ratio fits all" patient-to-nurse ratio is not optimal. A preferable policy would be to allow the ratio to be hospital-dependent.

The US is experiencing a severe opioid epidemic with more than 80,000 opioid overdose deaths occurring in 2022. Beyond the tragic loss of life, opioid use disorder (OUD) has emerged as a major contributor to morbidity, lost productivity, mounting criminal justice system costs, and significant social disruption. This Current Opinion article highlights opportunities for analytics in supporting policy making for effective response to this crisis. We describe modeling opportunities in the following areas: understanding the opioid epidemic (e.g., the prevalence and incidence of OUD in different geographic regions, demographics of individuals with OUD, rates of overdose and overdose death, patterns of drug use and associated disease outbreaks, and access to and use of treatment for OUD); assessing policies for preventing and treating OUD, including mitigation of social conditions that increase the risk of OUD; and evaluating potential regulatory and criminal justice system reforms.

In the mental health sector, Psychological Therapies face numerous challenges including ambiguities over the client and service factors that are linked to unfavourable outcomes. Better understanding of these factors can contribute to effective and efficient use of resources within the Service. In this study, process mining was applied to data from the Northern Health and Social Care Trust Psychological Therapies Service (NHSCT PTS). The aim was to explore how psychological distress severity pre-therapy and attendance factors relate to outcomes and how clinicians can use that information to improve the service. Data included therapy episodes (N = 2,933) from the NHSCT PTS for adults with a range of mental health difficulties. Data were analysed using Define-Measure-Analyse model with process mining. Results found that around 11% of clients had pre-therapy psychological distress scores below the clinical cut-off and thus these individuals were unlikely to significantly improve. Clients with fewer cancelled or missed appointments were more likely to significantly improve post-therapy. Pre-therapy psychological distress scores could be a useful factor to consider at assessment for estimating therapy duration, as those with higher scores typically require more sessions. This study concludes that process mining is useful in health services such as NHSCT PTS to provide information to inform caseload planning, service management and resource allocation, with the potential to improve client's health outcomes.

Contagious disease pandemics, such as COVID-19, can cause hospitals around the world to delay nonemergent elective surgeries, which results in a large surgery backlog. To develop an operational solution for providing patients timely surgical care with limited health care resources, this study proposes a stochastic control process-based method that helps hospitals make operational recovery plans to clear their surgery backlog and restore surgical activity safely. The elective surgery backlog recovery process is modeled by a general discrete-time queueing network system, which is formulated by a Markov decision process. A scheduling optimization algorithm based on the piecewise decaying [Formula: see text]-greedy reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed to make dynamic daily surgery scheduling plans considering newly arrived patients, waiting time and clinical urgency. The proposed method is tested through a set of simulated dataset, and implemented on an elective surgery backlog that built up in one large general hospital in China after the outbreak of COVID-19. The results show that, compared with the current policy, the proposed method can effectively and rapidly clear the surgery backlog caused by a pandemic while ensuring that all patients receive timely surgical care. These results encourage the wider adoption of the proposed method to manage surgery scheduling during all phases of a public health crisis.

Drug shortages are a global and complex issue having negative impacts on patients, pharmacists, and the broader health care system. Using sales data from 22 Canadian pharmacies and historical drug shortage data, we built machine learning models predicting shortages for the majority of the drugs in the most-dispensed interchangeable groups in Canada. When breaking drug shortages into four classes (none, low, medium, high), we were able to correctly predict the shortage class with 69% accuracy and a kappa value of 0.44, one month in advance, without access to any inventory data from drug manufacturers and suppliers. We also predicted 59% of the shortages deemed to be most impactful (given the demand for the drugs and the potential lack of interchangeable options). The models consider many variables, including the average days of a drug supply per patient, the total days of a drug supply, previous shortages, and the hierarchy of drugs within different drug groups and therapeutic classes. Once in production, the models will allow pharmacists to optimize their orders and inventories, and ultimately reduce the impact of drug shortages on their patients and operations.

Patient and technician scheduling problem in hemodialysis centers presents a unique setting in healthcare operations as (1) unlike other healthcare problems, dialysis appointments have a steady state and the treatment times are determined in advance of the appointments, and (2) once the appointments are set, technicians will have to be assigned to two types of jobs per appointment: putting on and taking off patients (connecting to and disconnecting from dialysis machines). In this study, we design a mixed-integer programming model to minimize technicians' operating costs (regular and overtime costs) at large-scale hemodialysis centers. As this formulation proves to be computationally challenging to solve, we propose a novel reformulation of the problem as a discrete-time assignment model and prove that the two formulations are equivalent under a specific condition. We then simulate instances based on the data from our collaborating hemodialysis center to evaluate the performance of our proposed formulations. We compare our results to the current scheduling policy at the center. In our numerical analysis, we reduced the technician operating costs by 17% on average (up to 49%) compared to the current practice. We further conduct a post-optimality analysis and develop a predictive model that can estimate the number of required technicians based on the center's attributes and patients' input variables. Our predictive model reveals that the optimal number of technicians is strongly related to the time flexibility of patients and their dialysis times. Our findings can help clinic managers at hemodialysis centers to accurately estimate the technician requirements.

The coronavirus infection COVID-19 killed millions of people around the world in 2019-2022. Hospitals were in the forefront in the battle against the pandemic. This paper proposes a novel approach to assess the effectiveness of hospitals in saving lives. We empirically estimate the production function of COVID-19 deaths among hospital inpatients, applying Heckman's two-stage approach to correct for the bias caused by a large number of zero-valued observations. We subsequently assess performance of hospitals based on regression residuals, incorporating contextual variables to convex quantile regression. Data of 187 hospitals in England over a 35-week period from April to December 2020 is divided in two sub-periods to compare the structural differences between the first and second waves of the pandemic. The results indicate significant performance improvement during the first wave, however, learning by doing was offset by the new mutated virus straits during the second wave. While the elderly patients were at significantly higher risk during the first wave, their expected mortality rate did not significantly differ from that of the general population during the second wave. Our most important empirical finding concerns large and systematic performance differences between individual hospitals: larger units proved more effective in saving lives, and hospitals in London had a lower mortality rate than the national average.

Prioritising elective surgery patients under the Australian three-category system is inherently subjective due to variability in clinician decision making and the potential for extraneous factors to influence category assignment. As a result, waiting time inequities can exist which may lead to adverse health outcomes and increased morbidity, especially for patients deemed to be low priority. This study investigated the use of a dynamic priority scoring (DPS) system to rank elective surgery patients more equitably, based on a combination of waiting time and clinical factors. Such a system enables patients to progress on the waiting list in a more objective and transparent manner, at a rate relative to their clinical need. Simulation results comparing the two systems indicate that the DPS system has potential to assist in managing waiting lists by standardising waiting times relative to urgency category, in addition to improving waiting time consistency for patients of similar clinical need. In clinical practice, this system is likely to reduce subjectivity, increase transparency, and improve overall efficiency of waiting list management by providing an objective metric to prioritise patients. Such a system is also likely to increase public trust and confidence in the systems used to manage waiting lists.