Health Care Management Science最新文献

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, active testing has risen as a key component of many response strategies around the globe. Such strategies have a common denominator: the limited availability of diagnostic tests. In this context, pool testing strategies have emerged as a means to increase testing capacity. The efficiency gains obtained by using pool testing, derived from testing combined samples simultaneously, vary according to the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the population being tested. Motivated by the need for testing closed populations, such as long-term care facilities (LTCFs), where significant correlation in infections is expected, we develop a probabilistic model for settings where the test results are correlated, which we use to compute optimal pool sizes in the context of two-stage pool testing schemes. The proposed model incorporates the specificity and sensitivity of the test, which makes it possible to study the impact of these measures on both the expected number of tests required for diagnosing a population and the expected number and variance of false negatives. We use our experience implementing pool testing in LTCFs managed by SENAMA (Chile's National Service for the Elderly) to develop a simulation model of contagion dynamics inside LTCFs, which incorporates testing and quarantine policies implemented by SENAMA. We use this simulation to estimate the correlation of test results among collected samples when following SENAMA's testing guidelines. Our results show that correlation estimates are high in settings representative of LTCFs, which validates the use of the proposed model for incorporating correlation in determining optimal pool sizes for pool testing strategies. Generally, our results show that settings in which pool testing achieves efficiency gains, relative to individual testing, are likely to be found in practice. Moreover, the results show that incorporating correlation in the analysis of pool testing strategies both improves the expected efficiency and broadens the settings in which the technique is preferred over individual testing.

Proactive and objective regulatory risk management of ongoing clinical trials is limited, especially when it involves the safety of the trial. We seek to prospectively evaluate the risk of facing adverse outcomes from standardized and routinely collected protocol data. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 2860 Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials that were started and completed between 1993 and 2017 and documented in ClinicalTrials.gov. Adverse outcomes considered in our work include Serious or Non-Serious as per the ClinicalTrials.gov definition. Random-forest-based prediction models were created to determine a trial's risk of adverse outcomes based on protocol data that is available before the start of a trial enrollment. A trial's risk is defined by dichotomic (classification) and continuous (log-odds) risk scores. The classification-based prediction models had an area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.865 to 0.971 and the continuous-score based models indicate a rank correlation of 0.6-0.66 (with p-values < 0.001), thereby demonstrating improved identification of risk of adverse outcomes. Whereas related frameworks highlight the prediction benefits of incorporating data that is highly context-specific, our results indicate that Adverse Event (AE) risks can be reliably predicted through a framework of mild data requirements. We propose three potential applications in leading regulatory remits, highlighting opportunities to support regulatory oversight and informed consent decisions.

Around the world, cancer care services are facing many operational challenges. Operations management research can provide important solutions to these challenges, from screening and diagnosis to treatment. In recent years, the growth in the number of papers published on cancer care operations management (CCOM) indicates that development has been fast. Within this context, the objective of this research was to understand the evolution of CCOM through a comprehensive study and an up-to-date bibliometric analysis of the literature. To achieve this aim, the Web of Science Core Collection database was used as the source of bibliographic records. The data-mining and quantitative tools in the software Biblioshiny were used to analyze CCOM articles published from 2010 to 2021. First, a historical analysis described CCOM research, the sources, and the subfields. Second, an analysis of keywords highlighted the significant developments in this field. Third, an analysis of research themes identified three main directions for future research in CCOM, which has 11 evolutionary paths. Finally, this paper discussed the gaps in CCOM research and the areas that require further investigation and development.

In order to allocate limited resources in emergency medical services (EMS) networks, mathematical models are used to select sites and their capacities. Many existing standard models are based on simplifying assumptions, including site independency and a similar system-wide busyness of ambulances. In practice, when a site is busy, a call is forwarded to another site. Thus, the busyness of each site depends not only on the rate of calls in the surrounding area, but also on interactions with other facilities. If the demand varies across the urban area, assuming an average system-wide server busy fraction may lead to an overestimation of the actual coverage. We show that site interdependencies can be integrated into the well-known Maximum Expected Covering Location Problem (MEXCLP) by introducing an upper bound for the busyness of each site. We apply our new mathematical formulation to the case of a local EMS provider. To evaluate the solution quality, we use a discrete event simulation based on anonymized real-world call data. Results of our simulation-optimization approach indicate that the coverage can be improved in most cases by taking site interdependencies into account, leading to an improved ambulance allocation and a faster emergency care.

This paper addresses a planning decision for operating rooms (ORs) that aim at supporting hospital management. Focusing on elective patients, we determined the master surgical schedule (MSS) on a one-week time horizon. We assigned the specialties to available sessions and allocated surgeries to them while taking into consideration the priorities of the outpatients in the ambulatory surgical discipline. Surgeries were selected from the waiting lists according to their priorities. The proposed approach considered operating theater (OT) restrictions, patients' priorities and accounted for the availability of both intensive care unit (ICU) beds and post-surgery beds. Since the management decisions of hospitals are usually made in an uncertain environment, our approach considered the uncertainty of surgery duration and availability of ICU bed. Two robust optimization approaches that kept the model computationally tractable are described and applied to deal with uncertainty. Computational results based on a medium-sized French hospital archives have been presented to compare the robust models to the deterministic counterpart and to demonstrate the price of robustness.

There is strong evidence that diabetes is underdiagnosed in the US: the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that approximately 25% of diabetic patients are unaware of their condition. To encourage timely diagnosis of at-risk patients, we develop screening guidelines stratified by body mass index (BMI), age, and prior test history by using a Partially Observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework to provide more personalized screening frequency recommendations. We identify structural results that prove the existence of threshold solutions in our problem and allow us to determine the relative timing and frequency of screening given different risk profiles. We then use nationally representative empirical data to identify a policy that provides the optimal action (screen or wait) every six months from age 45 to 90. We find that the current screening guidelines are suboptimal, and the recommended diabetes screening policy should be stratified by age and by finer BMI thresholds than in the status quo. We identify age ranges and BMI categories for which relatively less or more screening is needed compared to the existing guidelines to help physicians target patients most at risk. Compared to the status quo, we estimate that an optimal screening policy would generate higher net monetary benefits by $3,200-$3,570 and save $120-$1,290 in health expenditures per individual in the US above age 45.

Prolonged waiting to access health care is a primary concern for nations aiming for comprehensive effective care, due to its adverse effects on mortality, quality of life, and government approval. Here, we propose two novel bargaining frameworks to reduce waiting lists in two-tier health care systems with local and regional actors. In particular, we assess the impact of 1) trading patients on waiting lists among hospitals, the 2) introduction of the role of private hospitals in capturing unfulfilled demand, and the 3) hospitals' willingness to share capacity on the system performance. We calibrated our models with 2008-2018 Chilean waiting list data. If hospitals trade unattended patients, our game-theoretic models indicate a potential reduction of waiting lists of up to 37%. However, when private hospitals are introduced into the system, we found a possible reduction of waiting lists of up to 60%. Further analyses revealed a trade-off between diagnosing unserved demand and the additional expense of using private hospitals as a back-up system. In summary, our game-theoretic frameworks of waiting list management in two-tier health systems suggest that public-private cooperation can be an effective mechanism to reduce waiting lists. Further empirical and prospective evaluations are needed.

Lack of rapidly available neurological expertise, especially in rural areas, is one of the key obstacles in stroke care. Stroke care networks attempt to address this challenge by connecting hospitals with specialized stroke centers, stroke units, and hospitals of lower levels of care. While the benefits of stroke care networks are well-documented, travel distances are likely to increase when patients are transferred almost exclusively between members of the same network. This is particularly important for patients who require mechanical thrombectomy, an increasingly employed treatment method that requires equipment and expertise available in specialized stroke centers. This study aims to analyze the performance of the current design of stroke care networks in Bavaria, Germany, and to evaluate the improvement potential when the networks are redesigned to minimize travel distances. To this end, we define three fundamental criteria for assessing network design performance: 1) average travel distances, 2) the populace in the catchment area relative to the number of stroke units, and 3) the ratio of stroke units to lower-care hospitals. We generate several alternative stroke network designs using an analytical approach based on mathematical programming and clustering. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the existing networks in Bavaria via simulation. The results show that the current network design could be significantly improved concerning the average travel distances. Moreover, the existing networks are unnecessarily imbalanced when it comes to their number of stroke units per capita and the ratio of stroke units to lower-care hospitals.

Many hospital supply chains in the US follow a "stockless" structure, often implemented with the acquisition of new systems promising improved efficiencies and responsiveness. Despite vendor promises, supply chain gains from new technology are often unfulfilled or result in a reduction of performance. A critical component of achieving promised gains is the hospital's ability to accurately and consistently capture hospital inventory use. In practice, recording demand with perfect, 100% accuracy is infeasible, so our models condition on the level of accuracy in a particular hospital department, or point-of-use (POU) inventory location. Similar to previous literature, we consider actual net inventory and recorded net inventory in developing the system performance measures. We develop two models, optimizing either cost or service level, and we assume a periodic-review, base-stock (or par-level) inventory policy with full backordering. In addition to choosing the optimal order-up-to level, we seek the optimal frequency of inventory counts to reconcile inaccurate records. Results from both models provide insights for supply chain managers in the hospital setting, as well as hospital administrators considering the adoption of similar technologies or systems.