: Seeking a process-based understanding for the shape of the flow duration curve (FDC) uniqueness to a catchment, this study applied a data-based rainfall-runoff modeling approach in perennial, intermittent and ephemeral catch‐ ments which would have different dominant rainfall-runoff processes. Using this approach, we identified (1) the num‐ ber of dominant runoff processes in a catchment, (2) rain‐ water storage in all processes, (3) infiltrations and return flows between the processes. We then identified reasons for different FDC shapes in the catchments in terms of identi‐ fied dominant processes. Our results showed a humid cli‐ mate with lower aridity index ( AI ) would cause perennial flow created by the combination of four dominant pro‐ cesses of fast flow, faster and slower interflows and base flow components. On the contrary, an arid climate with higher AI would cause ephemeral flow created by the com‐ bination of two dominant processes of fast and faster inter‐ flow components. These indicate a FDC in arid catchments would become ephemeral because of less dominant runoff processes occurring only near ground surface, whereas a humid catchment would become perennial because of more dominant runoff processes occurring from near ground surface to deep underground. These findings contribute in estimating FDCs in ungauged catchments from climatic conditions.
{"title":"An interpretation of the relationship between dominant rainfall-runoff processes and the shape of flow duration curve by using data-based modeling approach","authors":"C. Leong, Y. Yokoo","doi":"10.3178/hrl.13.62","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.13.62","url":null,"abstract":": Seeking a process-based understanding for the shape of the flow duration curve (FDC) uniqueness to a catchment, this study applied a data-based rainfall-runoff modeling approach in perennial, intermittent and ephemeral catch‐ ments which would have different dominant rainfall-runoff processes. Using this approach, we identified (1) the num‐ ber of dominant runoff processes in a catchment, (2) rain‐ water storage in all processes, (3) infiltrations and return flows between the processes. We then identified reasons for different FDC shapes in the catchments in terms of identi‐ fied dominant processes. Our results showed a humid cli‐ mate with lower aridity index ( AI ) would cause perennial flow created by the combination of four dominant pro‐ cesses of fast flow, faster and slower interflows and base flow components. On the contrary, an arid climate with higher AI would cause ephemeral flow created by the com‐ bination of two dominant processes of fast and faster inter‐ flow components. These indicate a FDC in arid catchments would become ephemeral because of less dominant runoff processes occurring only near ground surface, whereas a humid catchment would become perennial because of more dominant runoff processes occurring from near ground surface to deep underground. These findings contribute in estimating FDCs in ungauged catchments from climatic conditions.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69394113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper explores optimal tank size for domestic rainwater harvesting systems in Asian tropical climates. A total of 128 locations in Vietnam covering three regional climate patterns were selected for the study. The system behavior was simulated on a daily basis using between 27 and 32 years of rainfall data. Annual water cost was investigated to determine optimal tank size. The relationship among optimal size, climate and system conditions was also analyzed. Results of the study emphasize the economic benefit of rainwater harvesting for the whole study area. The optimal tank size for a non-potable rainwater harvesting system has a range of 1.2–2.6 m3, exhibiting 19–65% supply efficiency and a payback period of 7–17 years. Extended system scenarios reveal a contrast in the influences of demand and roof area on optimal size in relation to rainfall amount. The roof area is critical in determining optimal size in the low rainfall area while the demand is important in the high rainfall area. Although there is a certain degree of variability in optimal tank size, it does not considerably undermine the economic benefit of a rainwater harvesting system.
{"title":"Exploring optimal tank size for rainwater harvesting systems in Asian tropical climates","authors":"Vuong Minh Nguyen, Y. Ichikawa, H. Ishidaira","doi":"10.3178/HRL.12.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.12.1","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores optimal tank size for domestic rainwater harvesting systems in Asian tropical climates. A total of 128 locations in Vietnam covering three regional climate patterns were selected for the study. The system behavior was simulated on a daily basis using between 27 and 32 years of rainfall data. Annual water cost was investigated to determine optimal tank size. The relationship among optimal size, climate and system conditions was also analyzed. Results of the study emphasize the economic benefit of rainwater harvesting for the whole study area. The optimal tank size for a non-potable rainwater harvesting system has a range of 1.2–2.6 m3, exhibiting 19–65% supply efficiency and a payback period of 7–17 years. Extended system scenarios reveal a contrast in the influences of demand and roof area on optimal size in relation to rainfall amount. The roof area is critical in determining optimal size in the low rainfall area while the demand is important in the high rainfall area. Although there is a certain degree of variability in optimal tank size, it does not considerably undermine the economic benefit of a rainwater harvesting system.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":"12 1","pages":"1-6"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.12.1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study presents the analytical solution for a radial advection-dispersion equation for a steady-state flow field in a horizontal aquifer caused by a constant rate injection from a well, including the mechanical dispersion and molecular diffusion terms in addition to the retardation and first-order attenuation under a Robin-type boundary condition at the well. The derived analytical solutions were compared with finely-meshed finite difference solutions in steady-state and periodic steady-state problems with typical parameters. The results suggest that the analytical solution is exactly derived and ready for application. Comparisons with analytical solutions ignoring molecular diffusion suggest that the derived analytical solution should be used when the product of the decay constant and the retardation factor and the ratio of injection rate to diffusion coefficient are small. Comparisons with analytical solutions with Dirichlet-type boundary conditions confirmed that Robintype boundary conditions should be used to exactly evaluate the concentration profile.
{"title":"Analytical solution for a radial advection-dispersion equation including both mechanical dispersion and molecular diffusion for a steady-state flow field in a horizontal aquifer caused by a constant rate injection from a well","authors":"M. Aichi, Kento Akitaya","doi":"10.3178/HRL.12.23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.12.23","url":null,"abstract":"This study presents the analytical solution for a radial advection-dispersion equation for a steady-state flow field in a horizontal aquifer caused by a constant rate injection from a well, including the mechanical dispersion and molecular diffusion terms in addition to the retardation and first-order attenuation under a Robin-type boundary condition at the well. The derived analytical solutions were compared with finely-meshed finite difference solutions in steady-state and periodic steady-state problems with typical parameters. The results suggest that the analytical solution is exactly derived and ready for application. Comparisons with analytical solutions ignoring molecular diffusion suggest that the derived analytical solution should be used when the product of the decay constant and the retardation factor and the ratio of injection rate to diffusion coefficient are small. Comparisons with analytical solutions with Dirichlet-type boundary conditions confirmed that Robintype boundary conditions should be used to exactly evaluate the concentration profile.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":"12 1","pages":"23-27"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.12.23","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69394034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tomohiro Tanaka, Y. Tachikawa, Y. Ichikawa, K. Yorozu
: A flood risk curve is the relation between annual maximum economic damage due to floods and its exceedance probability, which provides useful information for quantitative flood risk assessment. This study proposed to examine the applicability of d4PDF, a large ensemble climate projection dataset, to develop a probabilistic flood risk curve for the Yodo River basin (8,240 km 2 ), Japan. The d4PDF is a climate dataset under historical and 4 K increase conditions with tens of ensembles and provide a physically-based and reliable estimation of ensemble flood risk curves and their future changes. We identified that d4PDF rainfall data has bias for the spatial variability of rainfall probably due to coarse spatial resolution, while not for basin-averaged rainfall. This typical type of bias was removed by incorporating basin-averaged rainfall of d4PDF and observed spatial pattern of rainfall into analytically-based probabilistic rainfall modelling. Derived ensemble flood risk curves provided a histogram of T-year flood damage. The histogram had a long tail and showed that T-year flood damage may be larger than its deterministic estimate located at the median. Estimated ensemble flood risk curves at present/ future climates showed a clear increase of flood risk and its uncertainty at 4 K increase scenario.
{"title":"Flood risk curve development with probabilistic rainfall modelling and large ensemble climate simulation data: a case study for the Yodo River basin","authors":"Tomohiro Tanaka, Y. Tachikawa, Y. Ichikawa, K. Yorozu","doi":"10.3178/HRL.12.28","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.12.28","url":null,"abstract":": A flood risk curve is the relation between annual maximum economic damage due to floods and its exceedance probability, which provides useful information for quantitative flood risk assessment. This study proposed to examine the applicability of d4PDF, a large ensemble climate projection dataset, to develop a probabilistic flood risk curve for the Yodo River basin (8,240 km 2 ), Japan. The d4PDF is a climate dataset under historical and 4 K increase conditions with tens of ensembles and provide a physically-based and reliable estimation of ensemble flood risk curves and their future changes. We identified that d4PDF rainfall data has bias for the spatial variability of rainfall probably due to coarse spatial resolution, while not for basin-averaged rainfall. This typical type of bias was removed by incorporating basin-averaged rainfall of d4PDF and observed spatial pattern of rainfall into analytically-based probabilistic rainfall modelling. Derived ensemble flood risk curves provided a histogram of T-year flood damage. The histogram had a long tail and showed that T-year flood damage may be larger than its deterministic estimate located at the median. Estimated ensemble flood risk curves at present/ future climates showed a clear increase of flood risk and its uncertainty at 4 K increase scenario.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":"12 1","pages":"28-33"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.12.28","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69394069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impacts of climate and land use changes on river discharge in a small watershed: a case study of the Lam Chi subwatershed, northeast Thailand","authors":"Patchares Chacuttrikul, Masashi Kiguchi, T. Oki","doi":"10.3178/HRL.12.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.12.7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":"12 1","pages":"7-13"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.12.7","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69394078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
: The purpose of this research is to assess the future flood risk in rapidly urbanizing cities under climate change. A flood inundation model and a flood damage costs model were employed to project the future flood risk. We employed the combinations of eight global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for precipitation to represent the climate change. Land-use change and land subsidence information were employed to represent the urban development effects. The expected annual damage costs (EADC) were also calculated to explain the severity of the flood risk. In addition, a global approach was used to estimate the asset values by comparing the common parameters (e.g. gross domestic production (GDP) or population). As a result, the combination of climate change and urban development amplified the mean future flood risk by 322% to 402% in 2050, with a 95% confidence interval. The results also show a large uncertainty of the future flood risk due to the future scenarios. These findings will assist policymakers in determining the investment for future flood prevention and mitigation.
{"title":"Evaluation of future flood risk in Asian megacities: a case study of Jakarta","authors":"N. F. Januriyadi, S. Kazama, I. R. Moe, S. Kure","doi":"10.3178/HRL.12.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.12.14","url":null,"abstract":": The purpose of this research is to assess the future flood risk in rapidly urbanizing cities under climate change. A flood inundation model and a flood damage costs model were employed to project the future flood risk. We employed the combinations of eight global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for precipitation to represent the climate change. Land-use change and land subsidence information were employed to represent the urban development effects. The expected annual damage costs (EADC) were also calculated to explain the severity of the flood risk. In addition, a global approach was used to estimate the asset values by comparing the common parameters (e.g. gross domestic production (GDP) or population). As a result, the combination of climate change and urban development amplified the mean future flood risk by 322% to 402% in 2050, with a 95% confidence interval. The results also show a large uncertainty of the future flood risk due to the future scenarios. These findings will assist policymakers in determining the investment for future flood prevention and mitigation.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":"12 1","pages":"14-22"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.12.14","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69394014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem, S. Kazama, Shamsuddin Shahid, N. Dey
Changes in hydrological processes due to rising temperatures and related effects on the socio-economy and people’s livelihood are major concerns in Bangladesh. A study has been performed to assess the effects of increasing temperature on the groundwater levels and consequent changes in irrigation costs for groundwater-dependent irrigated agriculture in Northwest Bangladesh. A support vector machine (SVM) was used to model the temporal variations in groundwater level from rainfall, evapotranspiration, groundwater abstraction, and agricultural return flow. A multiple linear regression (MLR) model was developed to define the functional relationship between irrigation costs and groundwater levels. The model showed that average groundwater level during the major irrigation period (January-April) decreased by 0.15-2.01 m due to an increase in temperature of 1-5°C, which increased irrigation costs by 0.05-0.54 thousand Bangladesh Taka (BDT) per hector.
{"title":"Impact of temperature changes on groundwater levels and irrigation costs in a groundwater-dependent agricultural region in Northwest Bangladesh","authors":"Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem, S. Kazama, Shamsuddin Shahid, N. Dey","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.85","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.85","url":null,"abstract":"Changes in hydrological processes due to rising temperatures and related effects on the socio-economy and people’s livelihood are major concerns in Bangladesh. A study has been performed to assess the effects of increasing temperature on the groundwater levels and consequent changes in irrigation costs for groundwater-dependent irrigated agriculture in Northwest Bangladesh. A support vector machine (SVM) was used to model the temporal variations in groundwater level from rainfall, evapotranspiration, groundwater abstraction, and agricultural return flow. A multiple linear regression (MLR) model was developed to define the functional relationship between irrigation costs and groundwater levels. The model showed that average groundwater level during the major irrigation period (January-April) decreased by 0.15-2.01 m due to an increase in temperature of 1-5°C, which increased irrigation costs by 0.05-0.54 thousand Bangladesh Taka (BDT) per hector.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":"11 1","pages":"85-91"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.85","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42384218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The authors attempted to develop a simple methodology for estimating daily flow duration curves (FDCs) in island watersheds under humid tropic conditions, to realize better water management in data-limited island watersheds. This study disaggregated a FDC into three parts, namely high, middle and low flow parts and estimated each part independently. Based on Hawaiian watersheds, this study developed a methodology for estimating the high flow part using daily precipitation data and the Curve Number (CN) method, whereas we estimated the middle flow part directly from mean monthly flow (MMF) data. The results for the middle flow part showed the MMF data closely tracking the daily FDCs for nine of the eleven studied watersheds. For the high flow part, the results showed that only after calibration of the CN method, were there significant improvements in estimations. These results suggest it is possible to estimate the middle flow part of the FDC with MMF but the high flow part must use a calibrated CN in the CN method. This study also explored the relationship between calibrated CN and estimated absorption capacity of the studied watersheds to find the possibility of estimating suitable CN of a watershed from its geological characteristics.
{"title":"Estimating flow duration curve in the humid tropics: a disaggregation approach in Hawaiian watersheds","authors":"C. Leong, Y. Yokoo","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.175","url":null,"abstract":"The authors attempted to develop a simple methodology for estimating daily flow duration curves (FDCs) in island watersheds under humid tropic conditions, to realize better water management in data-limited island watersheds. This study disaggregated a FDC into three parts, namely high, middle and low flow parts and estimated each part independently. Based on Hawaiian watersheds, this study developed a methodology for estimating the high flow part using daily precipitation data and the Curve Number (CN) method, whereas we estimated the middle flow part directly from mean monthly flow (MMF) data. The results for the middle flow part showed the MMF data closely tracking the daily FDCs for nine of the eleven studied watersheds. For the high flow part, the results showed that only after calibration of the CN method, were there significant improvements in estimations. These results suggest it is possible to estimate the middle flow part of the FDC with MMF but the high flow part must use a calibrated CN in the CN method. This study also explored the relationship between calibrated CN and estimated absorption capacity of the studied watersheds to find the possibility of estimating suitable CN of a watershed from its geological characteristics.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":"11 1","pages":"175-180"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.175","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
: A method of frequency analysis, Extended Regional Frequency Analysis (ERFA), is proposed for reliable estimates of extreme daily rainfall probabilities for a long return period from relatively short daily rainfall records. The method uses combined data in a wide meteorologically homogeneous region (e.g., all Japan) to ensure a large number (order of 10,000) of data to minimize the effects of statistical sampling error in the frequency analysis. We applied the ERFA to daily rainfall data observed over Japan and to a high reso-lution atmospheric model simulation data over the meteorologically homogeneous land region of Japan. We found very good agreement between the empirical probability distribution and theoretical distribution estimated by ERFA, sug-gesting that the method is promising. However, we have noted some problems regarding ERFA: selection of the distribution, selection of the region, and model bias. These problems, along with possible solutions, are discussed.
{"title":"Estimating probability of extreme rainfall over Japan using Extended Regional Frequency Analysis","authors":"M. Sugi, Y. Imada, T. Nakaegawa, K. Kamiguchi","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.19","url":null,"abstract":": A method of frequency analysis, Extended Regional Frequency Analysis (ERFA), is proposed for reliable estimates of extreme daily rainfall probabilities for a long return period from relatively short daily rainfall records. The method uses combined data in a wide meteorologically homogeneous region (e.g., all Japan) to ensure a large number (order of 10,000) of data to minimize the effects of statistical sampling error in the frequency analysis. We applied the ERFA to daily rainfall data observed over Japan and to a high reso-lution atmospheric model simulation data over the meteorologically homogeneous land region of Japan. We found very good agreement between the empirical probability distribution and theoretical distribution estimated by ERFA, sug-gesting that the method is promising. However, we have noted some problems regarding ERFA: selection of the distribution, selection of the region, and model bias. These problems, along with possible solutions, are discussed.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":"11 1","pages":"19-23"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.19","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, we propose a new approach for model validation that can be applied to the projection of possible future storm surge heights (SSHs) on the regional scale. First, this study conducts a series of SSHs for the southeastern coast of the Korean Peninsula (KP) by six typhoons that produced SSHs over 1.0 m since 1979 and identifies the bias between simulated and observed SSHs. Next, formulas for the bias correction using a geographic parameter, in particular the coastline complexity factors, are drawn and validated. Finally, the effect of the proposed bias correction on projection of future SSHs is examined by performing simple tests to consider only central pressure drops to reflect the impact of climate change. It can be seen that the bias correction method considering the coastline complexity can improve the model’s accuracy by 14% to 23% and prevent potential overestimation by up to 20% of the maximum SSHs considering climate change effect on the southeastern coast of the KP.
{"title":"Bias correction of simulated storm surge height considering coastline complexity","authors":"Jung-A Yang, Sooyoul Kim, N. Mori, H. Mase","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.121","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we propose a new approach for model validation that can be applied to the projection of possible future storm surge heights (SSHs) on the regional scale. First, this study conducts a series of SSHs for the southeastern coast of the Korean Peninsula (KP) by six typhoons that produced SSHs over 1.0 m since 1979 and identifies the bias between simulated and observed SSHs. Next, formulas for the bias correction using a geographic parameter, in particular the coastline complexity factors, are drawn and validated. Finally, the effect of the proposed bias correction on projection of future SSHs is examined by performing simple tests to consider only central pressure drops to reflect the impact of climate change. It can be seen that the bias correction method considering the coastline complexity can improve the model’s accuracy by 14% to 23% and prevent potential overestimation by up to 20% of the maximum SSHs considering climate change effect on the southeastern coast of the KP.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":"11 1","pages":"121-127"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.121","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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