S. Wakamatsu, K. Oshio, K. Ishihara, H. Murai, T. Nakashima, Tsuyoshi Inoue
To facilitate accurate assessments of the regional impacts of global warming, and make informed decisions about appropriate measures to mitigate them, detailed global warming projections with uncertainties are needed. The Ministry of Environment of Japan and the Japan Meteorological Agency performed 21 different multiscenario and multiensemble experiments in Japan using the regional climate model MRI-NHRCM with a horizontal resolution of 20 km. To estimate the total range of uncertainty due to natural fluctuations and the variety of experimental runs by a single climate model with multi-physics and multi-SST ensembles under each greenhouse gas emission scenario, a unique statistical method that combined a mixture distribution and bootstrap resampling was adopted. Based on three models that adopted the Yoshimura scheme as a cumulus convection parameterization, annual mean temperatures in Japan were projected to rise significantly by 1.1 ± 0.4°C, 2.0 ± 0.4°C, 2.6 ± 0.6°C, and 4.4 ± 0.6°C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the end of the 21st century relative to the end of the 20th century (ensemble means ± standard deviations). In contrast, changes in future annual precipitation over Japan were projected to be statistically insignificant.
{"title":"Estimating regional climate change uncertainty in Japan at the end of the 21st century with mixture distribution","authors":"S. Wakamatsu, K. Oshio, K. Ishihara, H. Murai, T. Nakashima, Tsuyoshi Inoue","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.65","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.65","url":null,"abstract":"To facilitate accurate assessments of the regional impacts of global warming, and make informed decisions about appropriate measures to mitigate them, detailed global warming projections with uncertainties are needed. The Ministry of Environment of Japan and the Japan Meteorological Agency performed 21 different multiscenario and multiensemble experiments in Japan using the regional climate model MRI-NHRCM with a horizontal resolution of 20 km. To estimate the total range of uncertainty due to natural fluctuations and the variety of experimental runs by a single climate model with multi-physics and multi-SST ensembles under each greenhouse gas emission scenario, a unique statistical method that combined a mixture distribution and bootstrap resampling was adopted. Based on three models that adopted the Yoshimura scheme as a cumulus convection parameterization, annual mean temperatures in Japan were projected to rise significantly by 1.1 ± 0.4°C, 2.0 ± 0.4°C, 2.6 ± 0.6°C, and 4.4 ± 0.6°C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the end of the 21st century relative to the end of the 20th century (ensemble means ± standard deviations). In contrast, changes in future annual precipitation over Japan were projected to be statistically insignificant.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.65","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Kavvas, K. Ishida, T. Trinh, A. Ercan, Y. Darama, K. Carr
: In this study several issues with the standard flood fre quency analysis are discussed in the context of a changing hydro-climate in the 21st century. Among these issues the loss of statistical equilibrium in the hydro-climate of a stud ied region during the 21st century has serious implications on the standard frequency analysis that is discussed in some detail. An alternative method to flood frequency analysis within the framework of a changing climate based on ensem ble of future climate projections is reported and demon strated by a numerical application to a target watershed.
{"title":"Current issues in and an emerging method for flood frequency analysis under changing climate","authors":"M. Kavvas, K. Ishida, T. Trinh, A. Ercan, Y. Darama, K. Carr","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.1","url":null,"abstract":": In this study several issues with the standard flood fre quency analysis are discussed in the context of a changing hydro-climate in the 21st century. Among these issues the loss of statistical equilibrium in the hydro-climate of a stud ied region during the 21st century has serious implications on the standard frequency analysis that is discussed in some detail. An alternative method to flood frequency analysis within the framework of a changing climate based on ensem ble of future climate projections is reported and demon strated by a numerical application to a target watershed.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I. R. Moe, S. Kure, N. F. Januriyadi, M. Farid, K. Udo, S. Kazama, S. Koshimura
Jakarta is facing several issues related to flooding, including land subsidence in the coastal area and rapid land-use/ cover changes in the upstream area. In this study, we analyzed the effects of future changes in land use and land subsidence using a rainfall-runoff and flood inundation model. The future land-use scenarios were projected based on the SLEUTH model, and land subsidence was projected based on an extrapolation of the current state in Jakarta. Based on this analysis, land-use changes and land subsidence contributed to an increase in flood inundation volume of 36.8% from 2013 to 2050. Moreover, the effects of land-use changes on flood inundation in Jakarta were much greater than those of land subsidence. The government’s current target to stop land subsidence by 2020 would cause a 7.7% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. Furthermore, controlling and regulating land-use/cover changes by 2020 would cause a 10.9% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. From these results, we conclude that a flood mitigation plan should be made not only for land subsidence, but also for land-use changes.
{"title":"Future projection of flood inundation considering land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia","authors":"I. R. Moe, S. Kure, N. F. Januriyadi, M. Farid, K. Udo, S. Kazama, S. Koshimura","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.99","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.99","url":null,"abstract":"Jakarta is facing several issues related to flooding, including land subsidence in the coastal area and rapid land-use/ cover changes in the upstream area. In this study, we analyzed the effects of future changes in land use and land subsidence using a rainfall-runoff and flood inundation model. The future land-use scenarios were projected based on the SLEUTH model, and land subsidence was projected based on an extrapolation of the current state in Jakarta. Based on this analysis, land-use changes and land subsidence contributed to an increase in flood inundation volume of 36.8% from 2013 to 2050. Moreover, the effects of land-use changes on flood inundation in Jakarta were much greater than those of land subsidence. The government’s current target to stop land subsidence by 2020 would cause a 7.7% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. Furthermore, controlling and regulating land-use/cover changes by 2020 would cause a 10.9% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. From these results, we conclude that a flood mitigation plan should be made not only for land subsidence, but also for land-use changes.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.99","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yukio Miyagawa, T. Sumi, Y. Takemon, Sohei Kobayashi
Sediment replenishment is an effective method for resupplying depleted sediment and detaching overgrown algae in the downstream reaches of a dam. In this study, we used empirical data to examine the effects of sediment replenishment on bed material size and algal biomass in the downstream reaches of the Futase Dam, Chichibu City, Saitama Prefecture, Japan. Assuming that algae detach from bed materials when they are moved by water flow, we calculated the tractive force on the riverbed (τ) and allotted a threshold bed material size in motion (Dcri) for each given τ. The resulting bed material in the downstream reaches of the dam in any year was typically finer than that in the previous year when flooding in the rainy season transported a large volume of sediment. Algal biomass was lower when monthly Dcri exceeded 2 mm, versus when it was less than 2 mm. These results suggest that replenishment of fine bed materials accelerates algal detachment and restricts the accumulation of algal biomass by reducing bed stability.
{"title":"Effects of sediment replenishment on riverbed material size distribution and attached algal biomass in the downstream reaches of a dam","authors":"Yukio Miyagawa, T. Sumi, Y. Takemon, Sohei Kobayashi","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.114","url":null,"abstract":"Sediment replenishment is an effective method for resupplying depleted sediment and detaching overgrown algae in the downstream reaches of a dam. In this study, we used empirical data to examine the effects of sediment replenishment on bed material size and algal biomass in the downstream reaches of the Futase Dam, Chichibu City, Saitama Prefecture, Japan. Assuming that algae detach from bed materials when they are moved by water flow, we calculated the tractive force on the riverbed (τ) and allotted a threshold bed material size in motion (Dcri) for each given τ. The resulting bed material in the downstream reaches of the dam in any year was typically finer than that in the previous year when flooding in the rainy season transported a large volume of sediment. Algal biomass was lower when monthly Dcri exceeded 2 mm, versus when it was less than 2 mm. These results suggest that replenishment of fine bed materials accelerates algal detachment and restricts the accumulation of algal biomass by reducing bed stability.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.114","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T. Yamanaka, T. Kimura, Xinchao Sun, H. Kato, Y. Onda
The root water uptake profile (RWUP) reflects a plant’s survival strategy and controls evapotranspiration and carbon fluxes. Despite its importance, there is still no reliable method for reconstructing this profile. In this study, we applied and compared two possible approaches to a case study in a conifer plantation: an isotope-calibrated mechanistic model and a mixing model with a bell-shaped approximation. Our results show that, after calibrating the hydrologically-active root density profile, the mechanistic model gave a good estimation of the xylem water isotope delta (δx); even though the measured root density was greater in shallower soils, water uptake occurred throughout the entire soil profile, with more uptake in deeper soils. The RWUPs estimated by the mixing model were different from those estimated by the mechanistic model and were unrealistic. However, when we constrained the minimum thickness of the water uptake zone, there was good agreement between the RWUPs from the two approaches. We can therefore conclude that the mechanistic model calibrated with isotopes gave better results, and that sole use of the mixing model is not recommended unless appropriate constraints are applied.
{"title":"Comparing root water uptake profile estimations from an isotope-calibrated mechanistic model and a mixing model","authors":"T. Yamanaka, T. Kimura, Xinchao Sun, H. Kato, Y. Onda","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.161","url":null,"abstract":"The root water uptake profile (RWUP) reflects a plant’s survival strategy and controls evapotranspiration and carbon fluxes. Despite its importance, there is still no reliable method for reconstructing this profile. In this study, we applied and compared two possible approaches to a case study in a conifer plantation: an isotope-calibrated mechanistic model and a mixing model with a bell-shaped approximation. Our results show that, after calibrating the hydrologically-active root density profile, the mechanistic model gave a good estimation of the xylem water isotope delta (δx); even though the measured root density was greater in shallower soils, water uptake occurred throughout the entire soil profile, with more uptake in deeper soils. The RWUPs estimated by the mixing model were different from those estimated by the mechanistic model and were unrealistic. However, when we constrained the minimum thickness of the water uptake zone, there was good agreement between the RWUPs from the two approaches. We can therefore conclude that the mechanistic model calibrated with isotopes gave better results, and that sole use of the mixing model is not recommended unless appropriate constraints are applied.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.161","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A strategic analysis of an ongoing brownfield management conflict in Elmira, Ontario, Canada is conducted using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. This investigation of the situation as it existed in late 2016 constitutes an expansion of an earlier analysis of the dispute which focused on cleansing the groundwater aquifer, polluted by a chemical company in Elmira, to a controversy over the management of the pollution impacts on an adjacent creek. Besides the chemical plant, the other decision-makers involved in the 2016 dispute are the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change of the Province of Ontario, local government, and a citizens’ advisory group. The connections of the 2016 conflict to the earlier study which took place in 1991 are discussed and the evolution of the previous situation to the current one is explored in depth, along with strategic insights.
{"title":"Analysis of a brownfield management conflict in Canada","authors":"S. Philpot, Peter A. Johnson, K. Hipel","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.141","url":null,"abstract":"A strategic analysis of an ongoing brownfield management conflict in Elmira, Ontario, Canada is conducted using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. This investigation of the situation as it existed in late 2016 constitutes an expansion of an earlier analysis of the dispute which focused on cleansing the groundwater aquifer, polluted by a chemical company in Elmira, to a controversy over the management of the pollution impacts on an adjacent creek. Besides the chemical plant, the other decision-makers involved in the 2016 dispute are the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change of the Province of Ontario, local government, and a citizens’ advisory group. The connections of the 2016 conflict to the earlier study which took place in 1991 are discussed and the evolution of the previous situation to the current one is explored in depth, along with strategic insights.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.141","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
: We performed a field experiment on throughfall, stemflow, and bamboo culm flow to estimate interception in a deciduous broadleaf forest with different stand structures by separately removing the overstory and understory vegetation. The study area is occupied by oak ( Quercus serrata ) and chestnut ( Castanea crenata ) with an understory of chino bamboo ( Pleioblastus chino ). We established three plots for vegetation control, including an overstory plot (removal of understory), a bamboo plot (removal of over-story), and a control plot (both overstory and understory remained). Throughfall amounts relative to precipitation were 61% in the control plot, 54% in the overstory plot, and 31% in the bamboo plot. Average stemflow in control and overstory plots was 3% of precipitation. The significant difference in throughfall for the bamboo plot may have been caused by the high density of understory vegetation. A large portion of intercepted water is transferred to the ground as bamboo culm flow in the understory beneath the canopy in the control plot and in the bamboo plot. Our experiment highlighted the significance of understory vegetation in altering hydrological processes from canopy to understory vegetation.
{"title":"Field estimation of interception in a broadleaf forest under multi-layered structure conditions","authors":"Yutaka Abe, T. Gomi, N. Nakamura, Noriko Kagawa","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.181","url":null,"abstract":": We performed a field experiment on throughfall, stemflow, and bamboo culm flow to estimate interception in a deciduous broadleaf forest with different stand structures by separately removing the overstory and understory vegetation. The study area is occupied by oak ( Quercus serrata ) and chestnut ( Castanea crenata ) with an understory of chino bamboo ( Pleioblastus chino ). We established three plots for vegetation control, including an overstory plot (removal of understory), a bamboo plot (removal of over-story), and a control plot (both overstory and understory remained). Throughfall amounts relative to precipitation were 61% in the control plot, 54% in the overstory plot, and 31% in the bamboo plot. Average stemflow in control and overstory plots was 3% of precipitation. The significant difference in throughfall for the bamboo plot may have been caused by the high density of understory vegetation. A large portion of intercepted water is transferred to the ground as bamboo culm flow in the understory beneath the canopy in the control plot and in the bamboo plot. Our experiment highlighted the significance of understory vegetation in altering hydrological processes from canopy to understory vegetation.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.181","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Y. Iwami, A. Hasegawa, Mamoru Miyamoto, S. Kudo, Y. Yamazaki, T. Ushiyama, T. Koike
As many water related disasters occur frequently around the world, proper assessment of future climate change impact on floods and droughts is essential. In this study, we focused on basin-scale climate change impact assessment as necessary information for studying adaptation measures on the basis of integrated water resources management. We used Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) 3.2S (20 km grid super high resolution model) and a series of simulation methods for climate change analysis. We conducted a comparative study on changes in precipitation, flood discharge and inundation in the future during the wet and dry seasons for five target river basins in the Asian monsoon area. We found that regional precipitation outputs from the high resolution model in this study were in good agreement in the point of tendency of their changes in wet and dry monsoon seasons with the regional precipitation analysis in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Working Group 1 (WG1) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013). This study illustrated that the proposed methodology can make more detailed descriptions of climate change possible. The study also found the importance of basin-scale runoff and inundation analysis with downscaling especially for basins where floods occur for a short period, suggesting potential differences between flood change and precipitation change from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs such as maximum 5-day precipitation index in a basin. As a result, this paper confirms the importance of basin-scale discharge and inundation analysis for climate change considering basin characteristics from the viewpoint of river management.
{"title":"Comparative study on climate change impact on precipitation and floods in Asian river basins","authors":"Y. Iwami, A. Hasegawa, Mamoru Miyamoto, S. Kudo, Y. Yamazaki, T. Ushiyama, T. Koike","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.24","url":null,"abstract":"As many water related disasters occur frequently around the world, proper assessment of future climate change impact on floods and droughts is essential. In this study, we focused on basin-scale climate change impact assessment as necessary information for studying adaptation measures on the basis of integrated water resources management. We used Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) 3.2S (20 km grid super high resolution model) and a series of simulation methods for climate change analysis. We conducted a comparative study on changes in precipitation, flood discharge and inundation in the future during the wet and dry seasons for five target river basins in the Asian monsoon area. We found that regional precipitation outputs from the high resolution model in this study were in good agreement in the point of tendency of their changes in wet and dry monsoon seasons with the regional precipitation analysis in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Working Group 1 (WG1) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013). This study illustrated that the proposed methodology can make more detailed descriptions of climate change possible. The study also found the importance of basin-scale runoff and inundation analysis with downscaling especially for basins where floods occur for a short period, suggesting potential differences between flood change and precipitation change from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs such as maximum 5-day precipitation index in a basin. As a result, this paper confirms the importance of basin-scale discharge and inundation analysis for climate change considering basin characteristics from the viewpoint of river management.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.24","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
: Climate analogues for 17 Australian cities in the current climate (1979–2003) were identified by using a nonparametric climate analogue approach and multi-ensemble future climate projections in the late 21st century (2075– 2099) made with the Meteorological Research Institute’s atmospheric general circulation model, version 3.2H under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario with a horizontal resolution of about 60 km. By using this approach, climate analogue cities could be identified within the uncertainties of the multi-ensemble future climate projections. A similarity score as a metric of climate analogue is evaluated with the threshold as the quantified uncertainties in nonparametric manner. Ten of the identified climate ana logue cities were in Australia, even in a global search, and the other seven analogue cities were in other continents: five in Africa, one in Mexico, and one in Argentina. In an in-country search, climate analogues for the seven target cit ies whose climate analogues were identified in other parts of the world in the global search were identified in Australia, although the similarity scores were low. Very low similarity scores imply that the future climate of the target city will be novel, that is, a climate that no city is currently experiencing.
{"title":"Identifying climate analogues for cities in Australia by a non-parametric approach using multi-ensemble, high-horizontal-resolution future climate projections by an atmospheric general circulation model, MRI-AGCM3.2H","authors":"T. Nakaegawa, K. Hibino, I. Takayabu","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.72","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.72","url":null,"abstract":": Climate analogues for 17 Australian cities in the current climate (1979–2003) were identified by using a nonparametric climate analogue approach and multi-ensemble future climate projections in the late 21st century (2075– 2099) made with the Meteorological Research Institute’s atmospheric general circulation model, version 3.2H under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario with a horizontal resolution of about 60 km. By using this approach, climate analogue cities could be identified within the uncertainties of the multi-ensemble future climate projections. A similarity score as a metric of climate analogue is evaluated with the threshold as the quantified uncertainties in nonparametric manner. Ten of the identified climate ana logue cities were in Australia, even in a global search, and the other seven analogue cities were in other continents: five in Africa, one in Mexico, and one in Argentina. In an in-country search, climate analogues for the seven target cit ies whose climate analogues were identified in other parts of the world in the global search were identified in Australia, although the similarity scores were low. Very low similarity scores imply that the future climate of the target city will be novel, that is, a climate that no city is currently experiencing.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.72","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global warming experiments using high-resolution climate models are important for studying the impact of global warming on human society from region to region. Three different cumulus schemes (YS: Yoshimura, KF: Kain-Fritsch and AS: Arakawa-Schubert) in the highresolution Meteorological Research Institute AGCM have simulated slightly different future summer mean precipitation changes in East Asia, which are not negligible in the context of regional climate change. Specifically, 25-year mean June-July-August (JJA) average precipitation clearly decreases over eastern Japan, and tends to increase over northern Japan in YS. However, in KF and AS, decreases in precipitation are not significant over Japan, and an increase is clear from central China through southwestern Japan. Addtionally, the increase is extended over the Pacific side of Japan in KF. The above dependence of future changes in precipitation in East Asia on the scheme used is interpreted by comparing future changes in water and heat balances in the atmosphere. Among possible global warming effects, scheme dependence is attributed to different changes in mean vertical velocity associated with southward shift of the westerly jet over the northern Pacific and weakened Asian monsoon circulations over Eurasia.
{"title":"Future precipitation changes during summer in East Asia and model dependence in high-resolution MRI-AGCM experiments","authors":"T. Ose","doi":"10.3178/HRL.11.168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3178/HRL.11.168","url":null,"abstract":"Global warming experiments using high-resolution climate models are important for studying the impact of global warming on human society from region to region. Three different cumulus schemes (YS: Yoshimura, KF: Kain-Fritsch and AS: Arakawa-Schubert) in the highresolution Meteorological Research Institute AGCM have simulated slightly different future summer mean precipitation changes in East Asia, which are not negligible in the context of regional climate change. Specifically, 25-year mean June-July-August (JJA) average precipitation clearly decreases over eastern Japan, and tends to increase over northern Japan in YS. However, in KF and AS, decreases in precipitation are not significant over Japan, and an increase is clear from central China through southwestern Japan. Addtionally, the increase is extended over the Pacific side of Japan in KF. The above dependence of future changes in precipitation in East Asia on the scheme used is interpreted by comparing future changes in water and heat balances in the atmosphere. Among possible global warming effects, scheme dependence is attributed to different changes in mean vertical velocity associated with southward shift of the westerly jet over the northern Pacific and weakened Asian monsoon circulations over Eurasia.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3178/HRL.11.168","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69393741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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