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Bias correction of d4PDF using a moving window method and their uncertainty analysis in estimation and projection of design rainfall depth 移动窗法对d4PDF的偏差校正及其在设计降雨深度估计和投影中的不确定性分析
IF 1.1 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.3178/hrl.14.117
Satoshi Watanabe, Masafumi Yamada, Shiori Abe, Misako Hatono
: Design rainfall depth, which is a fundamental index used in river planning, was estimated by rainfall obtained from super-ensemble simulations with bias correction, and the future change under 4 degree warming was projected. The modifications of existing bias correction methods were pro‐ posed to resolve the issue of overfitting and gap in size between reference and super-ensemble simulation data. A bias correction approach considering the bias between the historical experiment, the reference data, and the change between the historical and future experiments separately was defined as two-pass bias correction. The two-pass bias correction was performed with a moving window method that calculated moving average for time period and rank-order statistics. The result indicated that the approach pro‐ posed in this study estimates the design rainfall depth with a small error compared to that calculated without the moving window. The moving window method effectively resolves the issue of overfitting. The projection indicated that the range of projection among sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns is equivalent to 25% of the design rainfall depth for most basins and 60% for certain specific basins. The results indicate the importance of the appropriate bias correction and the consideration of range among the SST patterns for super-ensemble simulation data.
设计降雨深度是河流规划的基本指标,利用超集合模拟得到的降雨量进行了偏差校正,并预估了升温4℃下的未来变化。提出了对现有偏差校正方法的改进,以解决参考数据与超集合模拟数据之间的过拟合和尺寸差距问题。将历史实验、参考数据之间的偏差以及历史实验和未来实验之间的变化分别考虑在内的偏差校正方法定义为两次偏差校正。通过移动窗口法计算时间段和秩序统计的移动平均值,进行两道偏差校正。结果表明,与没有移动窗的计算相比,本研究中提出的方法估计的设计降雨深度误差较小。移动窗口法有效地解决了过拟合问题。预测结果表明,海表温度(SST)型间的预测范围在大多数盆地相当于设计降水深度的25%,在某些特定盆地相当于设计降水深度的60%。结果表明,对超集合模拟数据进行适当的偏置校正和考虑海温模式间的范围是非常重要的。
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引用次数: 5
Possible hydrological effect of rainfall duration bias in dynamical downscaling 动态降尺度中降雨持续时间偏差可能产生的水文效应
IF 1.1 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-10-16 DOI: 10.3178/hrl.13.55
Yuta Tamaki, M. Inatsu, T. Yamada
: Motivated by the problem of rainfall duration bias typi‐ cally found in dynamical downscaling, its possible effect on hydrology was evaluated for heavy rainfall events over Kyushu, Japan, during summer. Heavy rainfall in western Kyushu is often related to a persistent Baiu rainband across Kyushu, while in eastern Kyushu it is related to the passage of typhoons near Kyushu. For typical heavy-rainfall peri‐ ods, we ran a tank model for several target rivers to analyze runoff and water-depth sensitivity to the hyetograph by arti‐ ficially extending the rainfall duration to 8 hours while maintaining the same total rainfall. This showed that a spike in peak runoff was suppressed by prolonged weak rainfall as typically found in downscaling outputs. The tim‐ ing of rising runoff and water depth in the tank model was shifted earlier.
基于动力降尺度中常见的降雨持续时间偏差问题,对日本九州夏季强降雨事件的水文影响进行了评估。九州西部的强降雨通常与九州上空持续的白雨带有关,而九州东部的强降雨则与九州附近的台风有关。对于典型的强降雨周期,我们运行了几个目标河流的水箱模型,通过人工延长降雨持续时间至8小时,同时保持相同的总降雨量,来分析径流和水深对雨量记录仪的敏感性。这表明,长时间的弱降雨抑制了峰值径流的峰值,这通常出现在降尺度产出中。水槽模型中径流量上升和水深上升的时间提前。
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引用次数: 0
Vertical trend analysis of equivalent hydraulic conductivity in alluvial fan gravel deposits considering open void connectivity 考虑孔隙连通性的冲积扇砾石矿床等效导水率垂直趋势分析
IF 1.1 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-02-21 DOI: 10.3178/HRL.13.7
Yoshitaka Sakata
: This study demonstrated groundwater flow simulations to investigate a vertical trend of equivalent hydraulic conductivity of alluvial fan gravel deposits in Sapporo, Japan, considering open void connectivity. Equivalent hydraulic conductivity was defined according to Darcy’s Law for a cube of 10 m in size, consisting of one million cells assigned among fully packed (without open voids), loosely packed (with less-connected voids) or very loosely packed (with well-connected voids) deposits. The stochastic generation was performed under each configuration in terms of target depth sections for vertical trend analysis, and horizontal variogram ranges (random, high, and low connectivity, and no open voids) for open void connectivity. The logarithmic average of 100 equivalent hydraulic conductivities was calculated in each configuration, and the vertical trends were determined. The simulation results showed that the equivalent hydraulic conductivity increased when the open void frequency was large in the shallow zone and the connectivity of the open voids was assumed. In particular, the high connectivity assumption was needed to match the in situ trend with a decay exponent of 0.05 m –1 . Modeling the vertical trend with such a large decay exponent was essen-tial to obtain realistic solutions of the groundwater flow and transport system in the alluvial fan.
:本研究展示了地下水流动模拟,以调查日本札幌冲积扇砾石矿床的等效水力传导率的垂直趋势,考虑到孔隙连通性。等效导水率是根据达西定律定义的,适用于尺寸为10m的立方体,由100万个单元组成,这些单元分布在完全填充(没有开放孔隙)、松散填充(孔隙连接较少)或非常松散填充(空隙连接良好)的沉积物中。根据垂直趋势分析的目标深度剖面和开放孔隙连通性的水平变差函数范围(随机、高连通性和低连通性,无开放孔隙),在每种配置下进行随机生成。在每种配置中计算100当量导水率的对数平均值,并确定垂直趋势。模拟结果表明,当浅层孔隙频率较大且假定孔隙连通时,等效导水率增加。特别是,需要高连通性假设来匹配衰减指数为0.05 m–1的原位趋势。用如此大的衰减指数模拟垂直趋势对于获得冲积扇中地下水流动和输送系统的真实解至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to climate factors in forested mountainous watersheds 山地森林流域潜在蒸散对气候因子的敏感性
IF 1.1 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3178/HRL.13.41
Fereshteh Ghiami-Shomami, Kohzo Kawasaki, Leonardo, S. Shinoda, Yan Fan
Estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is important in hydrological studies. As climate change is pre‐ dicted to cause changes in water resources and agriculture sectors, the possible implications of changes in different climate variables on ET0 need to be understood. Sensitivity analysis was employed to illustrate the effects of perturba‐ tion in meteorological parameters (maximum and minimum air temperature (Tmax and Tmin), sunshine hours (n), maxi‐ mum and minimum relative humidity (RHmax and RHmin)) and wind speed (uz) on ET0. ET0 was calculated by The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 56 Penman-Monteith approach using climate data from 1979–2017 for the Enbara and Futatsumori water‐ sheds in forested mountain areas in Japan. We quantified the contributions of climatic factors to ET0 at daily, monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. Daily results showed large fluctuations. According to the monthly and seasonal analysis, during warm seasons, Tmax and n had more influence on ET0, especially in May, while for the cold seasons, RH effect was dominant, especially in December. Based on the annual results, the factors most influencing ET0 were Tmax followed by n, uz, RH and Tmin. We also found that the response of ET0 to changes in cli‐ matic parameters differs for sites with different topographic and geographic characteristics.
参考蒸散量(ET0)的估算在水文研究中具有重要意义。由于气候变化预计会引起水资源和农业部门的变化,因此需要了解不同气候变量变化对ET0的可能影响。采用敏感性分析分析了气象参数(最高和最低气温(Tmax和Tmin)、日照时数(n)、最大和最小相对湿度(RHmax和RHmin)和风速(uz)的扰动对ET0的影响。联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO) 56 Penman-Monteith方法利用日本森林山区Enbara和Futatsumori流域1979-2017年的气候数据计算了ET0。在日、月、季、年时间尺度上量化了气候因子对ET0的贡献。每日结果显示波动很大。从逐月和季节分析来看,暖季时,Tmax和n对ET0的影响更大,特别是在5月;冷季时,RH对ET0的影响更大,特别是在12月。从历年结果来看,对蒸散量影响最大的因子依次为Tmax、n、uz、RH和Tmin。研究还发现,不同地形和地理特征的样地,ET0对气候参数变化的响应也不同。
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引用次数: 4
Effects of cryogenic vacuum distillation on the stable isotope ratios of soil water 低温真空蒸馏对土壤水分稳定同位素比值的影响
IF 1.1 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3178/HRL.13.1
K. Tsuruta, Hiroyuki Yamamoto, M. Katsuyama, Y. Kosugi, M. Okumura, N. Matsuo
: Cryogenic vacuum distillation (CVD) methods have been widely used to extract water from unsaturated soil materials. However, recent studies have reported that extraction conditions (e.g. extraction time) and soil type can influence the stable isotope ratios of soil water extracted by CVD. We examined (i) the effects of extraction time on the stable isotope ratios of soil water extracted by CVD, and (ii) how the stable isotope ratios differed from those of soil water extracted by other methods. We first examined extraction times of 1–6 h, and observed no significant differences in the δ 2 H or δ 18 O values of extracted soil water for extraction times >2 h. However, extraction for 1 h collected only 48% of soil water, and the δ 2 H and δ 18 O values were significantly lower than those for extraction times >2 h. We then compared the stable isotope ratios of soil water extracted by CVD and centrifugation. Although the stable isotope ratios for both extraction methods were within the range of that of rainwater, the stable isotope ratios for water extracted by CVD were lower than those for water extracted by centrifugation. Our results highlight questions surrounding the use of CVD for stable isotope analysis of soil water.
低温真空蒸馏法(CVD)已广泛应用于非饱和土材料的水分提取。然而,最近的研究报道,提取条件(如提取时间)和土壤类型会影响CVD提取的土壤水的稳定同位素比率。我们研究了(i)提取时间对CVD提取的土壤水稳定同位素比率的影响,以及(ii)稳定同位素比率与其他方法提取的土壤水的差异。我们首先考察了1 ~ 6 h的提取时间,发现提取时间> ~ 2 h下提取的土壤水δ 2 h和δ 18 O值没有显著差异,但提取时间1 h只收集了48%的土壤水,δ 2 h和δ 18 O值显著低于提取时间> ~ 2 h下提取的土壤水。虽然两种提取方法的稳定同位素比值都在雨水的稳定同位素比值范围内,但CVD提取的水的稳定同位素比值低于离心提取的水。我们的结果突出了围绕使用CVD进行土壤水稳定同位素分析的问题。
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引用次数: 14
Estimating flow duration curves in perennial and ephemeral catchments using a disaggregated approach 用分类方法估计多年生和短暂集水区的流量持续时间曲线
IF 1.1 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3178/hrl.13.14
C. Leong, Y. Yokoo
The authors proposed a methodology for estimating flow duration curves (FDC) for perennial and ephemeral catch‐ ments in islands using a disaggregated approach. The pro‐ posed method is approached statistically and uses no complex parameters in order to reduce uncertainty and retain simplicity. Firstly, the FDC was disaggregated into three parts (high, middle and low) and, for the purpose of this study, it focusses on the low flow section. Initially, the mean monthly flow was used for estimating runoff in both types of catchments. The results show the mean monthly flow provided proper estimates in the perennial catchments, but for the ephemeral catchments the estimates were sub‐ standard. Therefore, a different approach using climate indices such as aridity and a precipitation index was used in a generalized regression equation. The results show the majority of the ephemeral catchments responded properly to the climate indices indicating climate as a major control‐ ling factor at the lower end of the FDC.
作者提出了一种利用分类方法估计岛屿多年生和短暂捕捞的流量持续时间曲线(FDC)的方法。该方法采用统计方法,不使用复杂参数,以减少不确定性并保持简单性。首先,将FDC分解为高、中、低三部分,在本研究中,FDC主要集中在低流量部分。最初,月平均流量被用于估算两种类型集水区的径流量。结果表明,月均流量对长期集水区提供了适当的估计,但对短暂集水区的估计是不标准的。因此,在广义回归方程中使用了使用气候指数(如干旱指数和降水指数)的不同方法。结果表明,绝大多数流域对气候指标有较好的响应,表明气候是FDC下端的主要控制因子。
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引用次数: 2
A consistent finite difference local inertial model for shallow water simulation 浅水模拟的一致有限差分局部惯性模型
IF 1.1 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3178/HRL.13.28
Tomohiro Tanaka, H. Yoshioka, Sokly Siev, H. Fujii, S. Ly, C. Yoshimura
: Hydrological-hydraulic modeling is a core technique in assessing surface water dynamics of rivers, lakes, and floodplains. The local inertial model (LIM) as a physically simplified model of the shallow water equations is essential for efficient numerical simulator of surface water dynam‐ ics. In this paper, we point out that the conventional semi-implicit finite difference scheme for the friction slope terms, despite being convenient, is not consistent in the sense that it may lead to incorrect numerical solutions if the temporal resolution is not high. We propose an alternative discretization to resolve this issue, which is more accurate and stable, and has comparable computational efficiency. The new numerical scheme is implemented into a modern hydrological-hydraulic model, demonstrating reasonable accuracy. The new scheme is also compared with a recently-proposed implicit scheme, demonstrating compa‐ rable theoretical and computational performances. The results indicate that the proposed scheme potentially serves as a new central core for numerical simulation with the LIM.
水文水力模拟是评估河流、湖泊和洪泛平原地表水动力学的核心技术。局部惯性模型(LIM)作为浅水方程的物理简化模型,对于有效地进行地表水动力学数值模拟至关重要。本文指出,摩擦斜率项的传统半隐式有限差分格式虽然方便,但在时间分辨率不高的情况下可能导致不正确的数值解的意义上是不一致的。我们提出了一种替代的离散化方法来解决这个问题,该方法更准确,更稳定,并且具有相当的计算效率。将该数值格式应用到现代水工模型中,证明了其合理的精度。新方案还与最近提出的隐式方案进行了比较,证明了可比较的理论和计算性能。结果表明,所提出的方案有可能成为LIM数值模拟的一个新的核心。
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引用次数: 1
Quantitative estimations of hazards resulting from Typhoon Chanthu (2016) for assessing the impact in current and future climate 用于评估当前和未来气候影响的台风“灿都”(2016)灾害定量估计
IF 1.1 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3178/HRL.13.20
S. Nayak, T. Takemi
Many recent studies have argued that tropical cyclones will become severer in future warming climate and may cause various catastrophic damages to human life and econ‐ omy. This study explores the impact of climate change on Typhoon Chanthu (2016) by performing a high-resolution (1 km) simulation for current and future climate. We focused on the typhoon intensity, size, heat fluxes, associ‐ ated precipitation and wind speed over northern Japan under global warming with different initial times at 6-hour interval. We find that the typhoon tracks in the present and future climates remained similar, however with stronger intensity and heat fluxes in warming climate condition. In the landfall region of Hokkaido in future climate, the maxi‐ mum wind speed and precipitation amount associated with the typhoon is significantly increased. The results imply that the damages associated with Typhoon Chanthu in future climate over northern Japan would be enhanced through strong wind, heavy rainfall and flooding.
近年来的许多研究表明,热带气旋在未来气候变暖中将变得更加严重,并可能对人类的生命和经济造成各种灾难性的损害。本研究通过对当前和未来气候进行高分辨率(1公里)模拟,探讨了气候变化对台风灿都(2016)的影响。研究了全球变暖背景下日本北部不同初始时间的台风强度、规模、热通量、相关降水和风速。结果表明,当前气候条件下的台风路径与未来气候条件下的台风路径相似,但在气候变暖条件下,台风的强度和热通量更强。在未来气候条件下,北海道登陆区与台风相关的最大风速和降水量显著增加。结果表明,台风“灿都”对未来日本北部气候造成的损害将通过强风、暴雨和洪水而增强。
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引用次数: 14
Development of XAJMISO hydrological model for rainfall-runoff analysis 用于降雨径流分析的XAJMISO水文模型的开发
IF 1.1 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3178/hrl.13.34
Khin Htay Kyi, Minjiao Lu
A hydrological model, XAJMISO is adopted from the XinAnJiang (XAJ) model and modified by transforming the parametric routing system into a non-parametric system to reduce parameters and improve performance. The pro‐ posed model replaces routing components of the XAJ model with two linear systems: surface flow and subsurface flow, including interflow and baseflow. The discharge at the basin outlet is then calculated using response functions of surface and subsurface flow, which are derived by means of a multiple input single output (MISO) system. In con‐ trast to other MISO studies, the present study defines the finite length for calculating response function coordinates based on time scales of all runoff components. The model is applied to six river basins of different data aridity indices in the United States and compared with our modified XAJ (mXAJ) model. The results reveal that the proposed model sufficiently represents the relationship between rainfall and runoff of relatively large basins and provides better and more stable performance. The proposed model also makes calibration much easier by reducing four sensitive parame‐ ters out of seven in mXAJ.
采用新安江(XAJ)水文模型XAJMISO,并将参数化路由系统转化为非参数化系统进行修正,以减少参数,提高性能。提出的模型用两个线性系统取代了XAJ模型的路由组件:地表流和地下流,包括互流和基流。然后利用多输入单输出(MISO)系统导出的地表和地下流量响应函数计算流域出口的流量。与其他MISO研究不同,本研究定义了基于所有径流组分的时间尺度计算响应函数坐标的有限长度。将该模型应用于美国6个不同数据干旱指数的河流流域,并与改进后的XAJ (mXAJ)模型进行了比较。结果表明,该模型能较好地反映较大流域降雨与径流的关系,具有较好的稳定性。所提出的模型还通过减少mXAJ中七个敏感参数中的四个敏感参数使校准变得更加容易。
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引用次数: 1
Thinning of cypress forest increases subsurface runoff but reduces peak storm-runoff: a lysimeter observation 柏树林的间伐增加了地下径流,但减少了暴雨径流的峰值:一项渗湿计观测
IF 1.1 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3178/hrl.13.49
K. Kuraji, Mie Gomyo, A. Nainar
Changes in runoff caused by forest management prac‐ tices such as thinning need to be better understood for effective water resource management. We established matched (20° slope) 62%-thinning treatment and grassland control lysimeter plots in a 22-year-old cypress plantation in the Inuyama Research Forest of the Ecohydrology Research Institute, Japan. Runoff (surface and subsurface) was directed into a collection tank with a 90° v-notch weir outlet. Measurements were made before and after the thin‐ ning treatment and were compared with grassland control. Monthly manual measurements of subsurface runoff (March 2011–December 2014) performed via a measuring cylinder and stopwatch yielded 18 pre-thinning and 24 post-thinning observations. In addition, 26 pre-thinning and 24 post-thinning sets of storm-event measurements were continuously recorded via a water level data logger. Fol‐ lowing thinning, subsurface runoff and peak storm-runoff changed by up to +133% and –80% respectively. By con‐ trolling the geology, soil characteristics and hydrological pathways, we were able to attribute these outcomes to reduced transpiration and increased ground resistance from felled logs respectively, suggesting that well-managed high-intensity thinning may be beneficial for increasing water supply and controlling floods. However, this is only achievable if felled logs are aligned along contour lines on the hillslopes.
为了实现有效的水资源管理,需要更好地了解疏林等森林管理措施引起的径流变化。我们在日本生态水文研究所犬山研究林的一个22年的柏树人工林中建立了匹配的(坡度为20°)62%间伐处理和草地控制渗湿计样地。径流(地表和地下)被引导到一个带有90°v形缺口堰出口的收集水箱中。在薄化处理前后进行了测量,并与草地对照进行了比较。2011年3月至2014年12月,每个月通过测量筒和秒表对地下径流进行人工测量,得出了18次减薄前和24次减薄后的观测结果。此外,通过水位数据记录仪连续记录了26组间伐前和24组间伐后的风暴事件测量数据。在间伐之后,地下径流和峰值暴雨径流分别变化了+133%和-80%。通过控制地质、土壤特征和水文路径,我们能够将这些结果分别归因于砍伐原木的蒸腾减少和地面阻力增加,这表明管理良好的高强度间伐可能有利于增加供水和控制洪水。然而,这只有在砍伐的原木沿着山坡上的等高线排列时才能实现。
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引用次数: 10
期刊
Hydrological Research Letters
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