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The difficult challenge of accurately recording iris colour in birds revealed through the lens of specimens of Australia's Spinifex Pigeon (Geophaps plumifera) 通过澳大利亚穗花鸽(Geophaps plumifera)标本的镜头揭示准确记录鸟类虹膜颜色的艰巨挑战
IF 2.1 3区 生物学 Q1 ORNITHOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1111/ibi.13272
Leo Joseph, Alex Drew, Christopher A. Wilson, Julian Teh, Pietro Viacava, Richard Schodde

Museum collections of birds are a key source of data on the colours of ‘soft parts’, e.g. legs, feet, bill (maxilla, mandible), wattles, periocular skin and, our focus here, the iris of the eye. However, subjective descriptions of soft parts' colours have long plagued their use, whether in research or in illustrations of birds. We document a case where reasonable doubt about the accuracy of iris colour recorded more than 50 years ago in several taxonomically important series of specimens of the Australian Spinifex Pigeon Geophaps plumifera is probably unresolvable. This doubt clouds the downstream use of the specimens in a complete understanding of geographical and temporal variation, and taxonomy. We discuss how ornithologists may apply methods now readily available that will enable more rigorous recording of soft parts' colours, despite many valid limitations. This especially applies in situations where existing knowledge dictates care, such as in already known zones of taxonomic intergradation or when colours known to be unusual and unexpected are seen.

博物馆收藏的鸟类是 "软体部分 "颜色数据的重要来源,例如腿、脚、喙(上颌骨、下颌骨)、疣、眼周皮肤,以及我们这里的重点--眼睛的虹膜。然而,无论是在研究中还是在鸟类插图中,对软部件颜色的主观描述一直困扰着它们的使用。我们记录了这样一个案例:50 多年前,在几个具有重要分类学意义的澳大利亚刺鸽 Geophaps plumifera 系列标本中记录的虹膜颜色的准确性存在合理的疑问,但很可能无法解决。这一疑点为下游利用这些标本全面了解地理和时间变异以及分类学蒙上了阴影。我们将讨论鸟类学家如何应用现在现成的方法来更严格地记录软体部分的颜色,尽管这些方法存在许多有效的局限性。这尤其适用于现有知识要求小心谨慎的情况,例如在已经知道的分类学互变区,或者在看到不寻常和出乎意料的颜色时。
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引用次数: 0
High pathogenicity avian influenza (H5N1) in Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus): Global spread, clinical signs and demographic consequences 北雁(Morus bassanus)中的高致病性禽流感(H5N1):全球传播、临床症状和人口后果
IF 2.1 3区 生物学 Q1 ORNITHOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1111/ibi.13275
Jude V. Lane, Jana W.E. Jeglinski, Stephanie Avery-Gomm, Elmar Ballstaedt, Ashley C. Banyard, Tatsiana Barychka, Ian H. Brown, Brigitte Brugger, Tori V. Burt, Noah Careen, Johan H.F. Castenschiold, Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard, Shannon Clifford, Sydney M. Collins, Emma Cunningham, Jóhannis Danielsen, Francis Daunt, Kyle J.N. D'entremont, Parker Doiron, Steven Duffy, Matthew D. English, Marco Falchieri, Jolene Giacinti, Britt Gjerset, Silje Granstad, David Grémillet, Magella Guillemette, Gunnar T. Hallgrímsson, Keith C. Hamer, Sjúrður Hammer, Katherine Harrison, Justin D. Hart, Ciaran Hatsell, Richard Humpidge, Joe James, Audrey Jenkinson, Mark Jessopp, Megan E.B. Jones, Stéphane Lair, Thomas Lewis, Alexandra A. Malinowska, Aly McCluskie, Gretchen McPhail, Børge Moe, William A. Montevecchi, Greg Morgan, Caroline Nichol, Craig Nisbet, Bergur Olsen, Jennifer Provencher, Pascal Provost, Alex Purdie, Jean-François Rail, Greg Robertson, Yannick Seyer, Maggie Sheddan, Catherine Soos, Nia Stephens, Hallvard Strøm, Vilhjálmur Svansson, T. David Tierney, Glen Tyler, Tom Wade, Sarah Wanless, Christopher R.E. Ward, Sabina I. Wilhelm, Saskia Wischnewski, Lucy J. Wright, Bernie Zonfrillo, Jason Matthiopoulos, Stephen C. Votier

During 2021 and 2022 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) killed thousands of wild birds across Europe and North America, suggesting a change in infection dynamics and a shift to new hosts, including seabirds. Northern Gannets Morus bassanus appeared to be especially severely impacted, but a detailed account of the data available is required to help understand how the HPAI virus (HPAIV) spread across the meta-population, and the ensuing demographic consequences. Accordingly, we analyse information on confirmed and suspected HPAIV outbreaks across most North Atlantic Gannet colonies and, for the largest colony (Bass Rock, UK), provide impacts on population size, breeding success, and preliminary results on apparent adult survival and serology. Unusually high numbers of dead Gannets were first noted at colonies in Iceland during April 2022. Outbreaks in May occurred in many Scottish colonies, followed by colonies in Canada, Germany and Norway. By the end of June, outbreaks had occurred in colonies in Canada and the English Channel. Outbreaks in 12 UK and Ireland colonies appeared to follow a clockwise pattern with the last infected colonies recorded in late August/September. Unusually high mortality was recorded at 40 colonies (75% of global total colonies). Dead birds testing positive for HPAIV H5N1 were associated with 58% of these colonies. At Bass Rock, the number of occupied nest-sites decreased by at least 71%, breeding success declined by c. 66% compared with the long-term UK mean and the resighting of marked individuals suggested that apparent adult survival between 2021 and 2022 could have been substantially lower than the preceding 10-year average. Serological investigation detected antibodies specific to H5 in apparently healthy birds, indicating that some Gannets recover from HPAIV infection. Further, most of these recovered birds had black irises, suggestive of a phenotypic indicator of previous infection. Untangling the impacts of HPAIV infection from other challenges faced by seabirds is key to establishing effective conservation strategies for threatened seabird populations as the likelihood of further epizootics increases, due to increasing habitat loss and the industrialization of poultry production.

在 2021 年和 2022 年期间,高致病性禽流感(HPAI)导致欧洲和北美数以千计的野生鸟类死亡,这表明感染动态发生了变化,并向包括海鸟在内的新宿主转移。北海鸥(Morus bassanus)似乎受到了特别严重的影响,但需要对现有数据进行详细说明,以帮助了解高致病性禽流感病毒(HPAIV)是如何在元种群中传播的,以及随之而来的种群后果。因此,我们分析了大多数北大西洋鲣鸟群落中确诊和疑似高致病性禽流感爆发的信息,并针对最大的群落(英国巴斯洛克),提供了对种群数量、繁殖成功率的影响,以及表观成鸟存活率和血清学的初步结果。2022 年 4 月,在冰岛的鲣鸟群落首次发现了异常大量的死亡鲣鸟。5 月,苏格兰的许多鲣鸟栖息地爆发了鲣鸟疫情,随后加拿大、德国和挪威的鲣鸟栖息地也爆发了疫情。到 6 月底,加拿大和英吉利海峡的群落也爆发了疫情。在英国和爱尔兰的 12 个群落中,疫情似乎呈顺时针方向发展,最后一个受感染的群落出现在 8 月底/9 月。40个鸽群(占全球鸽群总数的75%)的死亡率异常高。在这些鸽群中,58%的鸽群死鸟的高致病性禽流感病毒 H5N1 检测呈阳性。在巴斯岩,被占用的巢址数量至少减少了 71%,与英国长期平均水平相比,繁殖成功率下降了约 66%,重新发现的标记个体表明,2021 年至 2022 年期间的成鸟存活率可能大大低于之前 10 年的平均水平。血清学调查在表面健康的鸟类体内检测到 H5 的特异性抗体,这表明一些燕鸥从 HPAIV 感染中恢复过来。此外,这些恢复的鸟类大多有黑色虹膜,这表明它们以前感染过HPAIV。由于栖息地的日益丧失和家禽生产的工业化,海鸟再次发生流行病的可能性越来越大,因此,将高致病性禽流感病毒感染的影响与海鸟面临的其他挑战区分开来,是为濒危海鸟种群制定有效保护策略的关键。
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引用次数: 0
Unlocking avian museum collections to enable and advance environmental change research 挖掘鸟类博物馆藏品,促进和推动环境变化研究
IF 2.1 3区 生物学 Q1 ORNITHOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.1111/ibi.13271
Ken Norris, Alexander L. Bond, Joanna H. Cooper, Mark P. Adams, Hein van Grouw, Judith White, Martin Stervander, Douglas G. D. Russell, Simon P. Loader

The rate and magnitude of contemporary changes in natural systems is unprecedented in the Earth's history. Studies of wild birds have been critically important in helping us understand and address these environmental changes. Avian collections provide a potentially unique perspective on change through time, but their role in environmental change research is limited by the availability of collections data. Here we describe how avian collections might be unlocked to enable environmental change research, and discuss the opportunities and constraints associated with this. We use the concept of the extended specimen to describe the types of data that could be unlocked from basic data for discoverability to enhanced data that might be directly applied to environmental change questions. We illustrate the type of environmental change research these data might support. We argue that data creation and access is currently limited by funding for digitization, a rather patchy understanding of the needs of the research community and less than adequate data-sharing by institutions and researchers. We develop a blueprint for addressing these issues which includes (1) improvements in sharing the data we are already creating and (2) building a better case for digitization at scale. As one of the largest avian collections in the world, the Natural History Museum, UK, is committed to unlocking our collections, but we will need input and support from the avian research community to do so.

当代自然系统变化的速度和规模在地球历史上是前所未有的。对野生鸟类的研究对于帮助我们了解和应对这些环境变化至关重要。鸟类藏品为我们提供了一个独特的视角来观察时间的变化,但它们在环境变化研究中的作用却受到藏品数据可用性的限制。在此,我们将介绍如何利用鸟类藏品来开展环境变化研究,并讨论与此相关的机遇和限制因素。我们使用扩展标本的概念来描述可解锁的数据类型,从可发现性的基础数据到可直接应用于环境变化问题的增强数据。我们说明了这些数据可能支持的环境变化研究类型。我们认为,数据的创建和获取目前受到数字化资金、对研究界需求的不完全了解以及机构和研究人员数据共享不足等因素的限制。我们为解决这些问题制定了一个蓝图,其中包括:(1)改善我们正在创建的数据的共享;(2)为大规模数字化建立一个更好的案例。作为世界上最大的鸟类收藏馆之一,英国自然历史博物馆致力于解锁我们的收藏,但我们需要鸟类研究界的投入和支持。
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引用次数: 0
Horizontal prey distribution determines the foraging performance of short- and long-billed waders in virtual resource landscapes 猎物的水平分布决定了短嘴鸻和长嘴鸻在虚拟资源景观中的觅食表现
IF 1.8 3区 生物学 Q1 ORNITHOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.1111/ibi.13274
Evelien Deboelpaep, Steven Pint, Nico Koedam, Tom Van der Stocken, Bram Vanschoenwinkel

When waders gather in mixed-species flocks to feed on benthic prey, differences in morphological traits, foraging strategies and prey selection may allow different species to optimize their energy intake while reducing competition. As the effect of the fine-scale spatial distribution of resources on energy intake is unknown, we simulated the foraging performance of two types of waders with contrasting body plans and foraging strategies in a variety of virtual mudflats with different horizontal and vertical prey distribution patterns. Although larger, longer-billed individuals had higher energy intake rates, smaller individuals with shorter bills maintained higher prey capture rates by relocating if prey was insufficiently available. Shorter-billed individuals struggled more to meet their energetic demands because they selected smaller prey items and had a more limited capacity to metabolize energy from food. Being able to catch larger, high-quality prey offered a competitive advantage for longer-billed individuals, which could be a driving force for the evolutionary lengthening of bills in waders. Interestingly, their performance was more affected by the horizontal than by the vertical prey distribution. Quantifying prey distributions may help explain how some wader species can co-occur in the field and why some wetland areas are unattractive as foraging areas. The work confirms that the foraging performance of larger, longer-billed birds is not limited by bill size per se, but by the energetic trade-offs associated with the ability to catch larger prey items more efficiently, increased handling times and higher absolute energy costs. These trade-offs may become particularly important in landscapes where prey is scarce and spatially patchy.

当鸻鹬混群捕食底栖猎物时,形态特征、觅食策略和猎物选择的差异可能会使不同物种在减少竞争的同时优化能量摄入。由于资源的细尺度空间分布对能量摄入的影响尚不清楚,我们模拟了两种身体形态和觅食策略截然不同的鸻鹬类在各种具有不同水平和垂直猎物分布模式的虚拟泥滩中的觅食表现。虽然体型较大、喙较长的个体能量摄入率较高,但体型较小、喙较短的个体在猎物不足的情况下通过迁移保持了较高的猎物捕获率。喙较短的个体在满足能量需求方面更加吃力,因为它们选择的猎物较小,从食物中代谢能量的能力也更有限。能够捕捉到更大、更优质的猎物为长喙个体提供了竞争优势,这可能是涉禽进化过程中喙变长的驱动力。有趣的是,它们的表现受水平猎物分布的影响比垂直猎物分布的影响更大。对猎物分布进行量化可能有助于解释一些鸻鹬类物种如何在野外共同出现,以及为什么一些湿地区域作为觅食区缺乏吸引力。这项研究证实,体型较大、喙较长的鸟类的觅食表现并不受限于喙的大小本身,而是受限于与更有效地捕捉较大猎物的能力、更长的处理时间和更高的绝对能量成本相关的能量权衡。在猎物稀少且空间分散的环境中,这些权衡可能变得尤为重要。
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引用次数: 0
Disparate data streams together yield novel survival estimates of Alaska-breeding Whimbrels 不同的数据流共同得出了阿拉斯加繁殖白鹡鸰的新存活率估计值
IF 2.1 3区 生物学 Q1 ORNITHOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.1111/ibi.13273
Daniel R. Ruthrauff, Christopher M. Harwood, T. Lee Tibbitts, Vijay P. Patil

Survival estimates are critical components of avian ecology. In well-intentioned efforts to maximize the utility of one's research, survival estimates often derive from data that were not originally collected for survival assessments, and such post hoc analyses may include unintentional biases. We estimated the survival of Whimbrels captured and marked at two breeding sites in Alaska using divergent data streams that in isolation were subject to methodological biases. Although both capture sites were chosen to study the migration ecology of Alaska-breeding Whimbrels, maximizing the conservation value of the data we collected was obviously desirable. We used multi-year telemetry information to infer survival from one site (Colville River) and mark–resight techniques to estimate survival from a second site (Kanuti River). At Colville River, we could not feasibly include a control group of birds to assess potential survival effects of externally mounted transmitters, and at Kanuti River we were unable to account accurately for potential emigration events because we used resightings alone. We integrated these datasets in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, an approach that permitted insights across sites that moderated methodological biases within sites. Using telemetry enabled us to detect permanent emigration events from breeding sites in two of 10 birds, results that informed estimates for birds without tracking devices. These datasets yielded point estimates of true survival of Whimbrels from Colville River equipped with solar-powered satellite transmitters that were higher (0.83) than true survival estimates of Whimbrels from Kanuti River marked with leg flags alone (0.74) or equipped with surgically implanted satellite transmitters (0.50), but the 95% credible intervals on these estimates overlapped across groups. For species such as Whimbrels that are difficult and costly to study, combining information from disparate data streams allowed us to derive novel demographic estimates, an approach with clear application to other similar studies.

存活率估计是鸟类生态学的重要组成部分。为了最大限度地提高研究的实用性,生存率估算通常来自于最初收集的并非用于生存率评估的数据,这种事后分析可能会包含无意的偏差。我们利用不同的数据流估算了在阿拉斯加两个繁殖地捕获并标记的黄雀的存活率,这些数据流单独使用时可能会出现方法上的偏差。尽管选择这两个捕获地点是为了研究阿拉斯加繁殖红腹滨鹬的迁徙生态学,但将我们收集到的数据的保护价值最大化显然是可取的。我们利用多年遥测信息来推断一个地点(科尔维尔河)的存活率,并利用标记监测技术来估计第二个地点(卡努提河)的存活率。在科尔维尔河,我们无法使用对照组鸟类来评估外部安装的发射器对存活率的潜在影响;在卡努提河,由于我们仅使用重见鸟类的数据,因此无法准确计算潜在的迁徙事件。我们在贝叶斯分层框架中整合了这些数据集,这种方法允许我们对不同地点的情况进行深入了解,从而缓和地点内的方法偏差。利用遥测技术,我们检测到了 10 只鸟类中的两只从繁殖地永久迁出的事件,这一结果为没有跟踪装置的鸟类的估计提供了依据。这些数据集得出了科尔维尔河上装有太阳能卫星发射器的无尾熊的真实存活率点估计值(0.83),高于卡努蒂河上仅用腿旗标记的无尾熊的真实存活率估计值(0.74)或装有外科植入式卫星发射器的无尾熊的真实存活率估计值(0.50),但这些估计值的 95% 可信区间在各组间重叠。对于像无须鳕这样研究难度大、成本高的物种来说,将来自不同数据流的信息结合起来,可以让我们得出新的人口统计估计值,这种方法在其他类似研究中也有明显的应用价值。
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引用次数: 0
Acknowledgement of Reviewers 审核人的确认
IF 2.1 3区 生物学 Q1 ORNITHOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/ibi.13266
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引用次数: 0
BOU Page BOU页面
IF 2.1 3区 生物学 Q1 ORNITHOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/ibi.13084
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引用次数: 0
Does early spring arrival lead to early nesting in a migratory shorebird? Insights from remote tracking 早春到来是否会导致候鸟提前筑巢?来自远程跟踪的见解
IF 2.1 3区 生物学 Q1 ORNITHOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-08-29 DOI: 10.1111/ibi.13268
Josh Nightingale, Jennifer A. Gill, Tómas G. Gunnarsson, Afonso D. Rocha, Ruth A. Howison, Jos C. E. W. Hooijmeijer, Theunis Piersma, José A. Alves

Advancing breeding phenology is a commonly observed response to climate warming among bird species, potentially in response to shifts in the phenology of key resources. However, for migratory birds breeding at high latitudes, their capacity to breed earlier may be constrained by the time available between arrival on the breeding grounds and nesting, especially for later-arriving individuals. This may have consequences for productivity, as early laying is often linked to higher breeding success, particularly in such seasonal environments. We investigated how migratory arrival timing influences subsequent timing of breeding, in particular whether the time between arrival and laying (arrival–laying gap) varies with arrival date, and if later-arriving individuals are able to catch up with early-arriving conspecifics. We tracked individual Icelandic Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa islandica with GPS and PTT tags for one to two complete breeding seasons between 2013 and 2022. After arrival in Iceland, most Godwits visited their breeding territory within 5 days, though this interval was longer for earlier-arriving birds. The total gap between arrival and laying was also longer for earlier-arriving birds, such that laying date did not vary significantly with arrival date. These results suggest that, despite individual consistency in migratory phenology, subsequent timing of nesting is probably influenced by other factors, such as mate arrival timing and/or annual variation in environmental conditions. Regular pre-nesting visits to the breeding territory may indicate that Godwits are able to monitor such factors closely and to nest early when conditions allow, but a larger sample of individuals and years is needed to assess whether early-arriving individuals contribute disproportionately to population-level advances in breeding phenology. Widespread tracking with high temporal and spatial resolution helps improve our understanding of phenological variation during the breeding season and its consequences for productivity and variation in juvenile phenology.

推进繁殖的酚学是鸟类对气候变暖的常见反应,可能是对关键资源的酚学变化的反应。然而,对于在高纬度繁殖的候鸟来说,它们较早繁殖的能力可能会受到到达繁殖地和筑巢之间可用时间的限制,尤其是对于较晚到达的个体。这可能会对生产力产生影响,因为早期产卵通常与更高的繁殖成功率有关,尤其是在这种季节性环境中。我们研究了迁徙到达时间如何影响随后的繁殖时间,特别是到达和产卵之间的时间(到达-产卵间隙)是否随到达日期而变化,以及晚到达的个体是否能够赶上早到达的同种。我们用GPS和PTT标签追踪了2013年至2022年期间1-2个完整繁殖季节的冰岛黑尾Godwit Limosa Limosa islandica个体。抵达冰岛后,大多数神智鸟在五天内造访了它们的繁殖地,尽管对于较早到达的鸟类来说,这一时间间隔更长。对于较早到达的鸟类来说,到达和产卵之间的总间隔也更长,因此产卵日期不会因到达日期而有显著差异。这些结果表明,尽管个体在迁徙表型上保持一致,但随后的筑巢时间可能会受到其他因素的影响,如配偶到达时间和/或环境条件的年度变化。定期对繁殖区进行筑巢前访问可能表明,Godwits能够密切监测这些因素,并在条件允许的情况下尽早筑巢,但需要更大的个体和年份样本来评估早期到达的个体是否对种群水平的繁殖表型进步做出了不成比例的贡献。具有高时间和空间分辨率的广泛跟踪有助于提高我们对繁殖季节酚类变化及其对生产力和幼鱼酚类变化的影响的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Nest-site selection and reproductive success of a critically endangered parrot, the Great Green Macaw (Ara ambiguus), in an anthropogenic landscape 极度濒危鹦鹉大绿金刚鹦鹉(Ara ambiguus)在人为景观中的巢址选择和繁殖成功
IF 2.1 3区 生物学 Q1 ORNITHOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-08-23 DOI: 10.1111/ibi.13262
Thomas C. Lewis, Ignacio Gutiérrez Vargas, Claire Vredenbregt, Mario Jimenez, Ben Hatchwell, Andrew P. Beckerman, Dylan Z. Childs

Nest-site selection is the principal way in which secondary cavity-nesting species mitigate the negative effects of factors such as predation, parasitism and exposure on reproductive success. Large-bodied secondary cavity-nesting birds rely on large cavities in mature trees that are often absent or reduced in anthropogenically disturbed forests. Hence, the availability of high-quality nest-sites may be limited for these species, potentially reducing reproductive success. The aim of this study was to investigate nest-site selection and the effect of nest-site features on reproductive success in the critically endangered Great Green Macaw Ara ambiguus in northern Costa Rica. We show that Great Green Macaws select nest-sites according to the characteristics of the cavity and the tree in which they are located. Moreover, reproductive success is a function of certain cavity features. However, the availability of high-quality cavities, those with features associated with higher reproductive success, is potentially limited. By studying nest-site selection and productivity together, we have identified that the availability of high-quality cavities could potentially limit the future recovery of the critically endangered Great Green Macaw.

巢址选择是次级穴巢物种减轻捕食、寄生和暴露等因素对繁殖成功的负面影响的主要方式。大型次生洞穴筑巢鸟类依赖成熟树木上的大型洞穴,而这些洞穴在受人为干扰的森林中经常缺失或减少。因此,这些物种高质量巢穴的可用性可能受到限制,可能会降低繁殖成功率。本研究的目的是调查哥斯达黎加北部极度濒危的大绿Macaw Ara ambiguus的巢位选择以及巢位特征对繁殖成功的影响。我们发现,大绿金刚鹦鹉根据洞穴和它们所在的树木的特征来选择筑巢地点。此外,生殖成功是某些腔特征的作用。然而,高质量蛀牙的可用性,即那些具有较高繁殖成功率特征的蛀牙,可能是有限的。通过对巢穴选址和生产力的共同研究,我们发现高质量洞穴的可用性可能会限制极度濒危的大绿金刚鹦鹉未来的恢复。
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引用次数: 0
Choice of model and re-nesting probability function influences behaviour of avian seasonal productivity models and their demographic predictions 模型和重新筑巢概率函数的选择影响鸟类季节生产力模型的行为及其人口预测
IF 2.1 3区 生物学 Q1 ORNITHOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-08-23 DOI: 10.1111/ibi.13267
Patrick J. C. White, Chris Stoate, Nicholas J. Aebischer, John Szczur, Lucy Ferrer, Ken Norris

Measuring seasonal productivity is difficult in multi-brooded species without labour-intensive ringing studies. Individual-based (IB) models have been used to estimate seasonal productivity with no direct knowledge of number of nesting attempts, but they are often based on simplified re-nesting probability (φR) step-functions instead of observed or more biologically plausible ones. We present a new, open-source IB seasonal productivity model parameterized from studies of Black Redstart Phoenicurus ochruros and Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella. We examined how the φR function shape (empirical versus simplified) influenced (1) model performance, (2) re-nesting compensation and (3) population-level predictions of a simulated management intervention. Population-level predictions were made only for Yellowhammer as we had more detailed demographic data, such as survival rates, available. Pattern-oriented modelling revealed that IB models produced realistic within-population distributions of breeding parameters, and those specified with an observed or empirically derived φR function generally outperformed those specified with simpler step functions. Strength of re-nesting compensation differed depending on the φR function used. For Yellowhammers, type of φR function in IB models marginally influenced population-level predictions of a simulated management intervention (potential population growth rate increased between 23% and 29% relative to no management intervention). In contrast, a simple deterministic productivity model, which did not simulate re-nesting compensation, predicted a 41% increase in potential population growth. At a population level, choice of φR function may have less influence on IB model predictions, but choice of model itself (IB versus deterministic) may have substantial impact. We discuss how more biologically plausible φR functions might either be observed directly, derived from nest data, or estimated from proxy information such as moult or brood patch changes.

在没有劳动密集型的铃响研究的情况下,测量多育物种的季节性生产力是困难的。基于个体的(IB)模型已被用于估算季节性生产力,但没有直接了解筑巢尝试的数量,但它们通常基于简化的重新筑巢概率(φR)步函数,而不是观察到的或更生物学上合理的步函数。我们提出了一个新的、开源的IB季节性生产力模型,以研究黑红start Phoenicurus ochruros和yellow whammer Emberiza citrinella为参数。我们研究了φR函数形状(经验与简化)如何影响(i)模型性能,(ii)抗拒补偿,以及(iii)模拟管理干预的人口水平预测。由于我们有更详细的人口统计数据,例如存活率,因此仅对yellow whammer进行了人口水平的预测。以模式为导向的模型显示,IB模型产生了真实的种群内育种参数分布,而那些由观察或经验推导的φR函数指定的模型通常优于那些由更简单的步进函数指定的模型。重嵌套补偿的强度取决于所使用的φR函数。对于黄锤,IB模型中的φR函数类型对模拟管理干预的种群水平预测影响很小(相对于没有管理干预,潜在种群增长率增加了23%至29%)。相比之下,一个简单的确定性生产力模型,没有模拟重巢补偿,预测潜在人口增长41%。在总体水平上,φR函数的选择可能对IB模型预测的影响较小,但模型本身的选择(IB vs确定性)可能有实质性的影响。我们讨论了如何从巢数据中直接观察到更具生物学合理性的φR函数,或者从换羽或育雏斑块变化等代理信息中估计φR函数。
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引用次数: 0
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