I present a general equilibrium model and quantitative evidence to gain an understanding of the economic consequences of U.S. immigration reform. Workers choose a country in which to live, an occupation in which to work, and an entry mode for migration to the destination country. Calibrating the model, I find the main consequence of reducing family visas is the increase in illegal immigration, which attenuates the wage impact on the United States and foreign countries. My analysis suggests that the recent policy proposals centered around dramatic cuts to family-visas are unlikely to be an effective method in reducing low-skill immigration.
{"title":"Modes of Entry, Correlated Productivity, and the Global Impacts of U.S. Immigration Reform","authors":"Chen Liu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3698877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3698877","url":null,"abstract":"I present a general equilibrium model and quantitative evidence to gain an understanding of the economic consequences of U.S. immigration reform. Workers choose a country in which to live, an occupation in which to work, and an entry mode for migration to the destination country. Calibrating the model, I find the main consequence of reducing family visas is the increase in illegal immigration, which attenuates the wage impact on the United States and foreign countries. My analysis suggests that the recent policy proposals centered around dramatic cuts to family-visas are unlikely to be an effective method in reducing low-skill immigration.","PeriodicalId":134919,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Politics of Immigration (Topic)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133891533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine if international trade improves labor market integration of immigrants in Sweden. Immigrants participate substantially less than natives in the labor market. However, trading with a foreign country is expected to increase the demand for immigrants from that country. By hiring immigrants, a firm may access foreign knowledge and networks needed to overcome information frictions in trade. Using granular longitudinal matched employer–employee data and an instrumental variable approach, we estimate the causal effects of a firm’s bilateral trade on employment and wages of immigrants from that country. We find a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.
{"title":"International Trade and Labor Market Integration of Immigrants","authors":"M. Lodefalk, F. Sjöholm, Aili Tang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3681396","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3681396","url":null,"abstract":"We examine if international trade improves labor market integration of immigrants in Sweden. Immigrants participate substantially less than natives in the labor market. However, trading with a foreign country is expected to increase the demand for immigrants from that country. By hiring immigrants, a firm may access foreign knowledge and networks needed to overcome information frictions in trade. Using granular longitudinal matched employer–employee data and an instrumental variable approach, we estimate the causal effects of a firm’s bilateral trade on employment and wages of immigrants from that country. We find a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.","PeriodicalId":134919,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Politics of Immigration (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127529472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Do activities by immigration enforcement agencies suppress or mobilize Hispanic voters? To answer this question, we exploit the sharp discontinuity in the legal authority of United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) at the boundary of the 100-mile interior US border zone. We find that CBP activities increased Hispanic voter registration and turnout in the 2016 US general election by 1.8pp and 1.5pp, respectively. We suggest that the main mechanism is via personal experiences—observing or hearing about CBP activities—as opposed to elite-driven campaigns that are unlikely to be spatially discontinuous. We also estimate the electoral consequences of CBP activities through a simulation exercise and find a small increase in the Democratic Party's representation in the US Congress.
{"title":"Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Activities Mobilize Hispanic Voters","authors":"Cory B. Smith, Dong-joon Jo, D. Lazer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3664854","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3664854","url":null,"abstract":"Do activities by immigration enforcement agencies suppress or mobilize Hispanic voters? To answer this question, we exploit the sharp discontinuity in the legal authority of United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) at the boundary of the 100-mile interior US border zone. We find that CBP activities increased Hispanic voter registration and turnout in the 2016 US general election by 1.8pp and 1.5pp, respectively. We suggest that the main mechanism is via personal experiences—observing or hearing about CBP activities—as opposed to elite-driven campaigns that are unlikely to be spatially discontinuous. We also estimate the electoral consequences of CBP activities through a simulation exercise and find a small increase in the Democratic Party's representation in the US Congress.","PeriodicalId":134919,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Politics of Immigration (Topic)","volume":"192 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124264196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Census data show that a majority of Hispanics self-categorize as white and a substantial proportion express attachment to white identity. Sociologists suggest that such selections are an artifact of the Census, not psychologically nor politically consequential. This study draws on history, sociology and recent advances in the study of white identity among Anglos, to develop an argument for why Hispanics show attachment to whiteness and what may be the implications of such identity choices for Hispanics’ political and policy preferences. First, we specify descriptive demographic analyses to predict white self-categorization and white identity among Hispanics. Second, using the 2012 ANES data, we show that attachment to white identity is an important predictor of partisanship, ideology and welfare policy preferences, while there is some evidence that white self-categorization, but not white identity, positively correlates with restrictive immigration policy preferences.
{"title":"Are Latinos Becoming White? The Role of White Self-Categorization and White Identity in Shaping Contemporary Hispanic Political and Policy Preferences","authors":"Alexandra Filindra, M. Kolbe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3602372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3602372","url":null,"abstract":"Census data show that a majority of Hispanics self-categorize as white and a substantial proportion express attachment to white identity. Sociologists suggest that such selections are an artifact of the Census, not psychologically nor politically consequential. This study draws on history, sociology and recent advances in the study of white identity among Anglos, to develop an argument for why Hispanics show attachment to whiteness and what may be the implications of such identity choices for Hispanics’ political and policy preferences. First, we specify descriptive demographic analyses to predict white self-categorization and white identity among Hispanics. Second, using the 2012 ANES data, we show that attachment to white identity is an important predictor of partisanship, ideology and welfare policy preferences, while there is some evidence that white self-categorization, but not white identity, positively correlates with restrictive immigration policy preferences.","PeriodicalId":134919,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Politics of Immigration (Topic)","volume":"06 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132908971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using the 2012 Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), we explore differences in literacy and numeracy skills, and the economic returns to these skills, for Canadian immigrants and non-immigrants. The novelty of this research is disaggregating the sample into seven distinct immigrant groups (based on admission class) and second and third-generation Canadians. Our results show that no immigrant group performs as well on literacy and numeracy tests compared to those born in Canada, although young immigrants do outperform adult immigrants. Similar results are found for wages, our metric for success in the labour market. Of the immigrant subgroups, economic immigrants tend to have the highest test scores and hourly wages, with refugees having the lowest. The wage returns to these basic skills are economically significant across all quantiles. Finally, we find that the labour market rewards literacy or numeracy skills equally for immigrants and the Canadian-born.
{"title":"Wage, Literacy, and Numeracy Skills Inequality: Do Immigration Admission Categories Matter?","authors":"Richard E. Mueller, N. T. K. Truong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3587756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3587756","url":null,"abstract":"Using the 2012 Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), we explore differences in literacy and numeracy skills, and the economic returns to these skills, for Canadian immigrants and non-immigrants. The novelty of this research is disaggregating the sample into seven distinct immigrant groups (based on admission class) and second and third-generation Canadians. Our results show that no immigrant group performs as well on literacy and numeracy tests compared to those born in Canada, although young immigrants do outperform adult immigrants. Similar results are found for wages, our metric for success in the labour market. Of the immigrant subgroups, economic immigrants tend to have the highest test scores and hourly wages, with refugees having the lowest. The wage returns to these basic skills are economically significant across all quantiles. Finally, we find that the labour market rewards literacy or numeracy skills equally for immigrants and the Canadian-born.","PeriodicalId":134919,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Politics of Immigration (Topic)","volume":"175 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122876878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Trunin, A. Evseev, F. Iskhakova, Goryunov Evgeniy
A surge in COVID-19 incidence in early April has shown that the world pandemic has not yet passed its peak. Morningstar and Fitch rating agencies forecast a reduction in global GDP in 2020 by 1.4% and 1.9%, respectively, while the Chinese economy will be the one to be hardest hit by the pandemic, according to Morningstar, Inc. forecasts. Most of the leading economies in the world are launching large-scale programs to provide financial assistance to businesses as a compensation for wages and salaries paid to their employees. A number of developing countries use traditional monetary measures in the form of reduced key rate, increased standing facilities corridor width, and other measures designed to boost liquidity in the money market.
{"title":"Socio-Economic Mitigation Measures Targeting COVID-19: International Experience","authors":"P. Trunin, A. Evseev, F. Iskhakova, Goryunov Evgeniy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3584039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3584039","url":null,"abstract":"A surge in COVID-19 incidence in early April has shown that the world pandemic has not yet passed its peak. Morningstar and Fitch rating agencies forecast a reduction in global GDP in 2020 by 1.4% and 1.9%, respectively, while the Chinese economy will be the one to be hardest hit by the pandemic, according to Morningstar, Inc. forecasts. Most of the leading economies in the world are launching large-scale programs to provide financial assistance to businesses as a compensation for wages and salaries paid to their employees. A number of developing countries use traditional monetary measures in the form of reduced key rate, increased standing facilities corridor width, and other measures designed to boost liquidity in the money market.","PeriodicalId":134919,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Politics of Immigration (Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121796267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recent immigration policies have created massive uncertainty for international students to obtain F-1 visas. Yet, before the COVID-19 pandemic, student visa applicants already faced an approximately 27 percent refusal rate that varies by time and region. Using data on the universe of SAT takers between 2004 and 2015 matched with college enrollment records, we examine how the anticipated F-1 visa restrictiveness influences US undergraduate enrollment outcomes of international students. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that a higher anticipated F-1 student visa refusal rate decreases the number of international SAT takers, decreases the probability of sending SAT scores to US colleges, and decreases international student enrollment in the US. The decreases are larger among international students with higher measured academic achievement. We also document academic achievement of international students and show that over 40 percent of high-scoring international SAT takers do not pursue US college education.
{"title":"Best and Brightest? The Impact of Student Visa Restrictiveness on Who Attends College in the US","authors":"Mingyu Chen, Jessica S. Howell, Jonathan Smith","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3859802","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3859802","url":null,"abstract":"Recent immigration policies have created massive uncertainty for international students to obtain F-1 visas. Yet, before the COVID-19 pandemic, student visa applicants already faced an approximately 27 percent refusal rate that varies by time and region. Using data on the universe of SAT takers between 2004 and 2015 matched with college enrollment records, we examine how the anticipated F-1 visa restrictiveness influences US undergraduate enrollment outcomes of international students. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that a higher anticipated F-1 student visa refusal rate decreases the number of international SAT takers, decreases the probability of sending SAT scores to US colleges, and decreases international student enrollment in the US. The decreases are larger among international students with higher measured academic achievement. We also document academic achievement of international students and show that over 40 percent of high-scoring international SAT takers do not pursue US college education.","PeriodicalId":134919,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Politics of Immigration (Topic)","volume":"2014 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127422950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
What is the role played by immigrant groups in shaping migration policy in the destination country? We address this question exploiting cross-state variation in U.S. citizens' access to the franchise, due to the presence of residency requirements. First we document that naturalized immigrants were more geographically mobile than natives. Second, congressmen representing districts with large numbers of naturalized U.S. citizens were more likely to support an open migration policy, but this effect is reversed once we account for residency requirements. Our results indicate that electoral accountability of U.S. congressmen to naturalized immigrants was a key factor in explaining this outcome.
{"title":"Immigrant Franchise and Immigration Policy: Evidence from the Progressive Era","authors":"Costanza Biavaschi, G. Facchini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3590893","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3590893","url":null,"abstract":"What is the role played by immigrant groups in shaping migration policy in the destination country? We address this question exploiting cross-state variation in U.S. citizens' access to the franchise, due to the presence of residency requirements. First we document that naturalized immigrants were more geographically mobile than natives. Second, congressmen representing districts with large numbers of naturalized U.S. citizens were more likely to support an open migration policy, but this effect is reversed once we account for residency requirements. Our results indicate that electoral accountability of U.S. congressmen to naturalized immigrants was a key factor in explaining this outcome.","PeriodicalId":134919,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Politics of Immigration (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132459255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Among college-educated workers in the United States, the ratio of immigrants grew by 11 percentage points between 1960 and 2010, with a prevalence in science and engineering (SE) occupations. To analyze the impact of college-educated immigrants, I build and estimate an equilibrium model of labor markets, involving individuals’ post-secondary degree and occupation choices. Counterfactual simulations show that if the entry of college-educated immigrants was halted in 1960, the population of native-born students obtaining SE degrees and native SE employment would have increased between 4.6% and 9.0%. However, the earnings of natives would have differed only slightly in each occupation because changes in occupation choice, the aggregate capital, and low-skilled labor would have curtailed potential gains in earnings. When the impact of the declining total SE employment due to the absence of immigrants on productivity is accounted for, the average earnings of native-born college graduates would have declined by 1.3%.
{"title":"The Effects of High-Skilled Immigration on Choice of College Major, Occupation, and Earnings","authors":"Murat Demirci","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3541717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3541717","url":null,"abstract":"Among college-educated workers in the United States, the ratio of immigrants grew by 11 percentage points between 1960 and 2010, with a prevalence in science and engineering (SE) occupations. To analyze the impact of college-educated immigrants, I build and estimate an equilibrium model of labor markets, involving individuals’ post-secondary degree and occupation choices. Counterfactual simulations show that if the entry of college-educated immigrants was halted in 1960, the population of native-born students obtaining SE degrees and native SE employment would have increased between 4.6% and 9.0%. However, the earnings of natives would have differed only slightly in each occupation because changes in occupation choice, the aggregate capital, and low-skilled labor would have curtailed potential gains in earnings. When the impact of the declining total SE employment due to the absence of immigrants on productivity is accounted for, the average earnings of native-born college graduates would have declined by 1.3%.","PeriodicalId":134919,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Politics of Immigration (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122372142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
What are the welfare implications of placing restrictions on internal migration? Given externalities in location choices, the answer is ambiguous. This paper empirically examines what is presumably the largest government intervention in internal migration in human history--the Hukou system in China. Using a dynamic spatial equilibrium framework and restricted-use census data, we find that completely removing Hukou-related migration restrictions between 2000 and 2010 would have resulted in an approximate 8%-18% increase in GDP and welfare. The presence of externalities results in a conflict between national and local interests: while it would be beneficial to remove all Hukou restrictions from the national perspective, natives in the most desirable cities would suffer losses. This implies that optimal spatial policies need to incentivize the more desirable cities to accommodate an even larger population.
{"title":"The Welfare Implications of Internal Migration Restrictions: Evidence from China","authors":"Wenbin Wu, Wei You","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3637557","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3637557","url":null,"abstract":"What are the welfare implications of placing restrictions on internal migration? Given externalities in location choices, the answer is ambiguous. This paper empirically examines what is presumably the largest government intervention in internal migration in human history--the Hukou system in China. Using a dynamic spatial equilibrium framework and restricted-use census data, we find that completely removing Hukou-related migration restrictions between 2000 and 2010 would have resulted in an approximate 8%-18% increase in GDP and welfare. The presence of externalities results in a conflict between national and local interests: while it would be beneficial to remove all Hukou restrictions from the national perspective, natives in the most desirable cities would suffer losses. This implies that optimal spatial policies need to incentivize the more desirable cities to accommodate an even larger population.","PeriodicalId":134919,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Politics of Immigration (Topic)","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125397690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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