Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses最新文献_第3页

Human Metapneumovirus Circulation and Seasonality on a Global Scale, 2016–2025: Changes in Patterns and Epidemic Timing in the Pre- Versus Post-COVID-19 Era 2016-2025年全球范围内人类偏肺病毒传播和季节性：covid -19前后的模式变化和流行时间

IF 4.2 4区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1111/irv.70200

Enrica Castellana, Alessandra Picelli, Emma Papini, Guglielmo Bonaccorsi, Jojanneke van Summeren, Marco Del Riccio, Saverio Caini

Background

Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) circulates globally, yet its seasonal dynamics remain incompletely defined. Here, we describe the global timing, amplitude and duration of hMPV outbreaks, comparing the pre- versus post-COVID-19 periods.

Methods

Surveillance data for hMPV were retrieved from WHO FluNet from Week 1/2016 until Week 26/2025. We examined the epidemic peak timing, amplitude and duration across seasons and latitudes and compared patterns in 2016–2019 with those in 2021–2025.

Results

Over the study period, approximately 145,000 hMPV detections were reported to the WHO FluNet database from a total of 54 countries worldwide. Among the 15 countries with sufficient data to analyse seasonality, the epidemic timing aligned with geographic latitude, with the peak occurring in June–September in the Southern Hemisphere, February–April in the Northern Hemisphere, while the timing was variable across the intertropical belt. The amplitude of the peak varied across countries, with some countries characterized by single, well-defined peaks and others with more widespread epidemics throughout the season. The median epidemic duration was 19.5 weeks (range 15–36). After the appearance of SARS-CoV-2, marked shifts in timing and amplitude were observed, with delays or dislocations in several countries compared with pre-pandemic seasons.

Conclusions

In this analysis of global surveillance data for hMPV (extended until June 2025), we highlighted latitudinal gradients in hMPV circulation, with disruptions associated with COVID-19. Our findings emphasize the importance of sustained, type-specific global surveillance to inform public health strategies and to characterize the post-COVID-19 global seasonality patterns of hMPV.

背景：人偏肺病毒（hMPV）在全球流行，但其季节性动态仍不完全确定。在这里，我们描述了hMPV暴发的全球时间、幅度和持续时间，并比较了covid -19之前和之后的时期。方法：从WHO FluNet检索2016年第1周至2025年第26周的hMPV监测数据。我们检查了不同季节和纬度的疫情高峰时间、幅度和持续时间，并将2016-2019年与2021-2025年的模式进行了比较。结果：在研究期间，世界上共有54个国家向世卫组织fleunet数据库报告了大约145,000例hMPV检测。在有足够数据分析季节性的15个国家中，流行时间与地理纬度一致，南半球的高峰发生在6月至9月，北半球的高峰发生在2月至4月，而热带带的时间各不相同。高峰的幅度因国家而异，一些国家的特点是单一的、明确的高峰，而另一些国家在整个季节的流行范围更广。中位流行持续时间为19.5周（范围15-36周）。在SARS-CoV-2出现后，观察到时间和幅度的明显变化，与大流行前的季节相比，在一些国家出现了延迟或混乱。结论：在对hMPV全球监测数据（延长至2025年6月）的分析中，我们强调了hMPV环流的纬度梯度，并与COVID-19相关。我们的研究结果强调了持续的、特定类型的全球监测的重要性，以便为公共卫生战略提供信息，并表征covid -19后hMPV的全球季节性模式。

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引用次数: 0

Human Immune Response to Influenza Neuraminidase After Vaccination: A Systematic Review 疫苗接种后人类对流感神经氨酸酶的免疫反应：系统综述。

IF 4.2 4区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1111/irv.70192

Vardhini Ganesh, Justin Iampietro, Saranya Sridhar, Ana P. Goncalvez

Background

Licensed influenza vaccines primarily target hemagglutinin (HA)-related immunity, but neuraminidase (NA)-based immunity is gaining attention as an independent correlate of protection. Inactivated influenza vaccines contain unspecified quantities of residual NA, with limited understanding of the resulting antibody induction and durability.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review across PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, ClinicalTrials.gov, and Trialtrove to identify studies reporting NA-related immunity following influenza vaccination. Primary outcomes included pre-existing and post-vaccination NA-inhibiting (NAI) antibody titers.

Results

Analysis of 40 articles, predominantly examining split-virus vaccines, revealed NAI antibody titers increased 5–7-fold at days 8–30 post-vaccination compared to baseline across all three NA (sub)types. NAI antibody geometric mean titers showed greater variability against N1 and N2 than against influenza B virus NAs. No significant differences in pre-vaccination and post-vaccination NAI antibody titers were observed between adults (18–64 years) and the elderly (≥ 65 years) for the N1 subtype. However, statistical differences were observed post-vaccination (days 8–30) between these age groups for N2 (p = 0.04) and NB (p = 0.01) (sub)types. NAI antibody responses remained durable, persisting at 2–16-fold above pre-vaccination levels through days 91–180.

Conclusion

Current influenza vaccines induce durable NAI responses in adults for up to 6 months. These findings provide valuable insights into pre-vaccination and post-vaccination responses to residual NA, which can guide future vaccine development strategies. Enhanced understanding of NA immunogenicity should inform public health approaches to improve global influenza prevention and control.

背景：已获许可的流感疫苗主要针对血凝素（HA）相关免疫，但基于神经氨酸酶（NA）的免疫作为一种独立的相关保护正受到关注。灭活流感疫苗含有未确定数量的残余NA，对由此产生的抗体诱导和持久性的了解有限。方法：我们对PubMed、Embase、Cochrane图书馆、ClinicalTrials.gov和Trialtrove进行了系统的文献综述，以确定报告流感疫苗接种后na相关免疫的研究。主要结局包括预先存在和接种后的na抑制（NAI）抗体滴度。结果：对40篇主要研究分裂病毒疫苗的文章的分析显示，在接种疫苗后8-30天，与基线相比，所有三种NA（亚）型的NAI抗体滴度增加了5-7倍。NAI抗体几何平均滴度对N1和N2的差异大于对乙型流感病毒NAs的差异。成人（18-64岁）和老年人（≥65岁）接种前和接种后N1亚型NAI抗体滴度无显著差异。接种疫苗后（第8 ~ 30天），两组间N2亚型（p = 0.04）和NB亚型（p = 0.01）差异有统计学意义。NAI抗体反应保持持久，在91-180天内持续保持在接种前水平的2-16倍。结论：目前的流感疫苗可在成人中诱导长达6个月的持久NAI反应。这些发现为疫苗接种前和疫苗接种后对残余NA的反应提供了有价值的见解，可以指导未来的疫苗开发策略。加强对NA免疫原性的了解应为改善全球流感预防和控制的公共卫生方法提供信息。

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引用次数: 0

Global Estimates of COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality: A Cohort Study and Mathematical Model Analysis 全球COVID-19发病率和死亡率估计：一项队列研究和数学模型分析。

IF 4.2 4区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/irv.70154

Houssein H. Ayoub, Hiam Chemaitelly, Laith J. Abu-Raddad

Background

The true extent of the severity and fatality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic remains uncertain. This study provides an approximate estimate of the global disease burden from the pandemic.

Methods

A cohort study followed the Qatari population from the onset of the pandemic to March 18, 2024, to estimate the age-specific incidence rates of severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19, classified according to World Health Organization criteria. A mathematical model then utilized these rates to generate regional and global estimates of COVID-19 severity and fatality.

Results

The incidence rate of any severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 throughout the pandemic was 1.13 (95% CI: 1.07–1.19) per 1000 person-years, while that of fatal COVID-19 alone was 0.11 (95% CI: 0.09–0.13) per 1000 person-years. Globally, the number of severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 cases was estimated at 61.9 million (95% UI: 55.0–69.9 million), while the number of fatal COVID-19 cases alone was estimated at 11.3 million (95% UI: 7.8–17.4 million). Both estimates showed large regional variations. Most severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19 cases occurred during the pre-Omicron phase of the pandemic.

Conclusions

The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound global impact on morbidity and mortality, emphasizing the critical need for preparedness for future pandemics.

背景：COVID-19大流行造成的严重程度和死亡人数的真实程度仍不确定。这项研究提供了大流行造成的全球疾病负担的大致估计。方法：一项队列研究跟踪了从大流行开始到2024年3月18日的卡塔尔人群，根据世界卫生组织的标准估计重症、危重和致命COVID-19的年龄特异性发病率。然后利用这些比率建立数学模型，得出区域和全球对COVID-19严重程度和死亡率的估计。结果：在大流行期间，任何严重、危重或致命的COVID-19的发病率为每1000人年1.13例（95% CI: 1.07-1.19），而单独致命的COVID-19的发病率为每1000人年0.11例（95% CI: 0.09-0.13）。在全球范围内，COVID-19严重、危重或致命病例数估计为6190万例（95% UI: 550 - 6990万），而仅COVID-19致命病例数估计为1130万例（95% UI: 780 - 1740万）。两项估计都显示出很大的区域差异。最严重、危急和致命的COVID-19病例发生在大流行的欧米克隆前阶段。结论：2019冠状病毒病大流行对发病率和死亡率产生了深远的全球影响，强调了为未来大流行做好准备的关键必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Prevalence and Age at Diagnosis of Risk Factors for Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease Among US Adults: An Analysis of 2011–2020 NHANES Data 美国成年人严重呼吸道合胞病毒病危险因素诊断的患病率和年龄：2011-2020年NHANES数据分析

IF 4.2 4区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

Pub Date : 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1111/irv.70181

Emily K. Horn, David Singer, Alison Booth, Hai Nguyen, Cynthia Saiontz-Martinez, Ariel Berger

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines are approved in the United States (US) among adults ≥ 60 years of age (YoA). Understanding disparities in risk factors (RFs) for severe RSV disease by social determinants of health is crucial for equitable RSV vaccination among at-risk adults. We investigated diagnosed/undiagnosed RF prevalence, age at RF diagnosis/identification, and association of key characteristics with RF diagnosis/identification among US adults.

Methods

We analyzed 2011–2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data to calculate RF prevalence and mean age at RF diagnosis/identification. Multivariable regression models were developed to estimate associations between characteristics and RF diagnosis/identification. Results were weighted to reflect the US noninstitutionalized adult population ≥ 20 YoA.

Results

After weighting, the analysis included a sample of 233,118,491 adults. Overall, 28.0% had ≥ 1 diagnosed RF (12.8% pulmonary; 9.2% cardiovascular; 14.1% endocrine/metabolic). Undiagnosed diabetes and renal disease were identified in 3.7% and 12.5% of adults, respectively. Among those with ≥ 1 diagnosed RF, mean age at RF diagnosis was 40.1 years and 60.0% were diagnosed before 50 YoA. Increasing age, belonging to a racial or ethnic minority group, and lower income were significantly associated with having ≥ 1 RF.

Conclusions

Approximately one in four adults had ≥ 1 diagnosed RF for RSV, with most diagnosed before 50 YoA. Adults in racial and ethnic minority and socioeconomically disadvantaged groups were more likely to have RFs and be diagnosed at younger ages. Efforts are needed to ensure all US adults at increased risk for severe RSV disease have access to RSV vaccination.

背景：呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）疫苗在美国被批准用于≥60岁的成年人（YoA）。通过健康的社会决定因素了解严重RSV疾病危险因素（RFs）的差异对于在高危成人中公平接种RSV疫苗至关重要。我们调查了美国成年人中确诊/未确诊的射频患病率、射频诊断/识别时的年龄，以及与射频诊断/识别的关键特征的关联。方法：分析2011-2020年全国健康与营养调查（NHANES）数据，计算射频患病率和射频诊断/识别时的平均年龄。建立了多变量回归模型来估计特征与射频诊断/识别之间的关联。对结果进行加权，以反映美国非机构成年人口≥20岁。结果：加权后，分析包括了233,118,491名成年人的样本。总体而言，28.0%的患者诊断为≥1例RF（肺12.8%，心血管9.2%，内分泌/代谢14.1%）。未确诊的糖尿病和肾脏疾病分别占成年人的3.7%和12.5%。在确诊≥1例射频的患者中，射频确诊的平均年龄为40.1岁，60.0%在50岁前确诊。年龄增加、属于种族或少数民族、收入较低与RF≥1显著相关。结论：大约四分之一的成年人被诊断为RSV的RF≥1，大多数在50岁之前被诊断出来。少数民族和社会经济弱势群体的成年人更有可能发生RFs，并且在更年轻的时候被诊断出来。需要努力确保所有严重RSV疾病风险增加的美国成年人都能获得RSV疫苗接种。

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引用次数: 0

Nirsevimab Effectiveness Against RSV-Related Hospitalisations in Children Under 24 Months: A Test-Negative Case–Control Study in Portugal, 2024–2025 尼塞维单抗对24个月以下儿童rsv相关住院治疗的有效性：2024-2025年葡萄牙检测阴性病例对照研究

IF 4.2 4区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

Pub Date : 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1111/irv.70186

Vânia Gaio, Camila Henriques, Miguel Lança, Rita Marques, Raquel Marques, Marta Rodrigues, Sofia Almeida, Beatriz Sousa, Margarida Freitas, Diana Amaral, Sara Ferreira, Inês Azevedo, Madalena von Hafe, Rafaela Gonçalves, Regina Viseu, Teresa Bandeira, Carolina Constant, Madalena Malato, Inês Carvalho, Jorge Rodrigues, Margarida Farinha, Teresa Nunes, Teresa Graça, Sofia Gomez, Sara Soares, João Farela Neves, Paulo Paixão, Inês Piscalho, Ana Loureiro, Cristina Freitas, José Alves, Diana Soares, Paulo Lopes, Ausenda Machado, Raquel Guiomar, Ana Paula Rodrigues, VigiRSV Group

We assessed Nirsevimab effectiveness (NE) against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-related hospitalisation in eligible children (< 2 years) using a test-negative case–control design within the VigiRSV network (weeks 43/2024 to 16/2025). Among 341 participants (median age: 2 months; 91.2% without known chronic condition), 137 (40.2%) tested RSV-positive. Adjusted NE against RSV-related hospitalisation was 78.5% (95%CI: 59.3–89.0). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. These findings support Nirsevimab's effect in a predominantly healthy infant population and contribute to informing public health decisions for RSV immunisation.

我们评估了nirseimab对呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）相关住院治疗的有效性(

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引用次数: 0

Effectiveness of the 2023 Autumn XBB.1.5 COVID-19 Booster During Summer 2024 in the EU/EEA: A VEBIS Electronic Health Record Network Study 欧盟/欧洲经济区2024年夏季2023秋季XBB.1.5 COVID-19增强剂的有效性：一项VEBIS电子健康记录网络研究

IF 4.2 4区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

Pub Date : 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1111/irv.70198

James Humphreys, Nathalie Nicolay, Toon Braeye, Izaak Van Evercooren, Christian Holm Hansen, Ida Rask Moustsen-Helms, Chiara Sacco, Massimo Fabiani, Jesús Castilla, Iván Martínez-Baz, Ausenda Machado, Patricia Soares, Rickard Ljung, Nicklas Pihlström, Esther Kissling, Anthony Nardone, Susana Monge, Sabrina Bacci, Baltazar Nunes, VEBIS-EHR working group

Background

After a period of low SARS-CoV-2 activity, viral circulation increased in Europe from May 2024, driven by immune-evasive KP sublineages of the JN.1 variant. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the XBB.1.5 dose administered in autumn 2023 against COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths in individuals 65 years of age or older during this period.

Methods

We conducted a multi-country cohort study across six EU nations in the VEBIS-EHR network using linked electronic health records. VE against COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death during June–August 2024 was estimated using Cox regression in a two-stage analysis, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities and prior vaccination history.

Results

Among individuals 65–79 and ≥ 80 years old, respectively, VE of the XBB.1.5 dose ≥ 6 months post administration was 13% (95% CI: −12% to 33%) and 7% (95% CI: −7% to 19%) against hospitalisation and 39% (95% CI: −7% to 65%) and 3% (95% CI: −23% to 23%) against deaths.

Conclusions

XBB.1.5 vaccination provided minimal residual protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes among adults aged ≥ 65 years more than 6 months after vaccination, during the summer 2024 period of increased SARS-CoV-2 activity.

背景：经过一段时间的低SARS-CoV-2活性后，由JN.1变体的免疫逃避KP亚谱系驱动，从2024年5月起，欧洲的病毒循环增加。我们估计了2023年秋季接种的XBB.1.5剂量在此期间对65岁及以上个体的covid -19相关住院和死亡的疫苗有效性（VE）。方法：我们在6个欧盟国家的VEBIS-EHR网络中使用关联的电子健康记录进行了一项多国队列研究。2024年6月至8月期间，使用Cox回归进行两阶段分析，并根据人口统计学、合并症和既往疫苗接种史进行调整，估计与covid -19相关的住院和死亡的VE。结果在65-79岁和≥80岁的个体中，XBB.1.5剂量在给药后≥6个月对住院的VE为13% （95% CI: - 12%至33%）和7% (95% CI: - 7%至19%)，对死亡的VE为39% （95% CI: - 7%至65%）和3% （95% CI: - 23%至23%）。结论在2024年夏季SARS-CoV-2活性升高期间，接种XBB.1.5疫苗对接种后6个月以上年龄≥65岁的成年人提供了最小的剩余保护。

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引用次数: 0

The Epidemiology, Phylogeny, and Strain Antigenicity of an Influenza A/H3N2 Virus Outbreak Among Vaccinated US Navy Midshipmen 在接种疫苗的美国海军海军军官候补生中爆发甲型流感/H3N2病毒的流行病学、系统发育和菌株抗原性

IF 4.2 4区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

Pub Date : 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1111/irv.70184

Simon D. Pollett, Emily Hone, Stephanie A. Richard, Kat Schmidt, Mark P. Simons, Michele Wayman, Jennifer Rothenberg, Vivian Hogan, Robert J. O'Connell, Timothy H. Burgess, Daniel Ewing, Appavu K. Sundaram, Anthony C. Fries, Drake H. Tilley, Rhonda E. Colombo

We performed epidemiological, genetic, and antigenic characterization of an influenza A/H3N2 outbreak in a congregate setting of young adults with high vaccination rates. We noted substantial duty-days lost, rapid spread, and vaccine antigenic divergence. The risk of influenza in healthy vaccinated adults underscores the need to develop universal influenza vaccines.

我们在高疫苗接种率的年轻人聚集环境中对甲型流感/H3N2爆发进行了流行病学、遗传学和抗原特征分析。我们注意到大量的职责日损失、迅速传播和疫苗抗原差异。接种过疫苗的健康成年人患流感的风险突出表明有必要研制通用流感疫苗。

引用次数: 0

Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccines and Duration of Protection Against Hospitalisation in England: 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 Seasons 英国流感疫苗的有效性和预防住院时间：2022/2023和2023/2024季节

IF 4.2 4区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1111/irv.70194

Heather J. Whitaker, Freja C. M. Kirsebom, Katie Hassell, Catherine Quinot, Julia Stowe, Katja Hoschler, Maria Zambon, Nick J. Andrews, Conall H. Watson, Jamie Lopez Bernal

Background

Linkage of national, healthcare data can provide greater resolution of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza subtypes, as well as the relative effectiveness of different vaccine types and the effects of waning on VE. We present 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 end-of-season VE against hospitalisation with laboratory confirmed influenza for England.

Methods

A test-negative design was used to estimate VE against hospitalisation. Cases and controls were identified within national laboratory surveillance systems and linked to hospital admission data. Vaccine histories were obtained from England's vaccine register. We combined results on VE by vaccine type over the two seasons using a meta-analysis.

Results

One hundred thousand five hundred eighty-one (28,565 positive) and 113,494 (21,243 positive) samples were eligible for inclusion in 2022/2023 and 2023/2024, respectively. The overall VE for children aged 2–17 years was 67% (95% CI, 63%–70%) in 2022/2023 and 56% (95% CI, 51%–60%) in 2023/2024. For adults aged 18–64, VE was 34% (95% CI, 30%–38%) in 2022/2023 and 38% (95% CI, 34%–42%) in 2023/2024. For adults aged 65+ years, VE was 25% (95% CI, 21%–29%) in 2022/2023 and 18% (95% CI, 14%–22%) in 2023/2024. We found no significant difference in VE by vaccine type. We found evidence of reduced VE against influenza A in adults 9 weeks or more post vaccination compared with 2–8 weeks post vaccination.

Conclusions

Vaccine protection against influenza hospitalisation was seen in all age groups, with strong protection for children. Adult protection could be strengthened by vaccination closer to the time of expected influenza circulation. Linkage of routine healthcare data provided us with a sufficiently large data set to estimate differences in VE by vaccine type and timing after vaccination.

背景：国家卫生保健数据的联系可以更好地解决疫苗对流感亚型的有效性（VE），以及不同疫苗类型的相对有效性和减弱对VE的影响。我们提出了2022/2023和2023/2024赛季末英格兰实验室确诊流感住院病例的VE。方法采用阴性试验设计估计VE与住院的关系。病例和控制是在国家实验室监测系统内确定的，并与住院数据相关联。疫苗历史从英格兰疫苗登记中获得。我们使用荟萃分析将两个季节按疫苗类型的VE结果结合起来。结果2022/2023年和2023/2024年分别有十万五千八十一份（28,565份阳性）和113,494份（21,243份阳性）符合纳入标准。2022/2023年2-17岁儿童的总体VE为67% (95% CI, 63%-70%)， 2023/2024年为56% （95% CI, 51%-60%）。对于18-64岁的成年人，2022/2023年VE为34% (95% CI, 30%-38%)， 2023/2024年VE为38% （95% CI, 34% - 42%）。对于65岁以上的成年人，2022/2023年VE为25% (95% CI, 21%-29%)， 2023/2024年VE为18% （95% CI, 14%-22%）。我们发现不同疫苗类型的VE无显著差异。我们发现，与接种疫苗后2-8周相比，接种疫苗后9周或更长时间的成年人抗甲型流感的VE降低。结论：疫苗对流感住院的保护作用在所有年龄组中均可见，对儿童的保护作用较强。在接近预期流感流行的时间时，可通过接种疫苗加强对成人的保护。常规卫生保健数据的联系为我们提供了一个足够大的数据集来估计疫苗类型和接种后时间的VE差异。

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引用次数: 0

Demographic Analysis of Mortality Changes Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan, 2020–2022 2020-2022年日本COVID-19大流行相关死亡率变化的人口统计学分析

IF 4.2 4区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1111/irv.70196

Yuta Okada, Hiroshi Nishiura

Backgrounds

Demographic analysis is required to thoroughly evaluate the mortality impact of COVID-19 in Japan that cannot be captured by epidemiological surveillance.

Methods

A hierarchical time-varying regression model was applied to prefectural life table data in Japan during 2000–2019. Pre-pandemic baseline mortality rates and death counts during 2020–2022 were projected by this model to evaluate the mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality during 2020–2022.

Results

Nationally, the observed mortality rates were higher than projected rates among those aged 10–29 years and lower for ages 1–9 and > 80 years in 2020. During 2021 and 2022, mortality rates consistently increased for most age groups, with substantial regional heterogeneity in those aged < 14 years. Consistently, the neutral gaps between the observed and projected life expectancy across prefectures in 2020 turned negative in most prefectures during 2022. In 2022, the negative gap in life expectancy ranged from a substantial shortening of −1.50 years (95% prediction interval [PI]: −1.82, −1.16) in Okinawa to a slight shortening of −0.21 years (95% PI: −0.65, 0.22) in Tottori. Excess deaths per population also grew consistently in all prefectures during 2020–2022; Miyazaki yielded the largest estimate at 177.4 (95% PI: 144.9, 210.2) per 100,000 population.

Conclusions

Our framework highlights the usefulness of life table data for evaluating the mortality impact caused by an event such as the pandemic. Our estimates, adjusted by pre-pandemic demographic trends, revealed the massive mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across a wide age range.

为了全面评估COVID-19对日本死亡率的影响，需要进行人口统计学分析，这是流行病学监测无法捕捉到的。方法采用层次时变回归模型对2000-2019年日本地县生命表数据进行分析。该模型预测了2020-2022年期间大流行前的基线死亡率和死亡人数，以评估2020-2022年期间COVID-19大流行对死亡率的影响。结果2020年全国10-29岁人群死亡率高于预期，1-9岁和80岁人群死亡率低于预期。在2021年和2022年期间，大多数年龄组的死亡率持续上升，14岁年龄组的区域差异很大。在大多数县，2020年观察到的预期寿命与预测寿命之间的中性差距在2022年变为负值。2022年，预期寿命的负差距范围从冲绳的- 1.50年（95%预测区间[PI]: - 1.82, - 1.16）到鸟取县的- 0.21年（95%预测区间[PI]: - 0.65, 0.22）。2020-2022年期间，所有县的人均超额死亡人数也持续增长；宫崎骏给出了最大的估计值，每10万人中有177.4人（95% PI: 144.9, 210.2）。我们的框架强调了生命表数据在评估大流行等事件造成的死亡率影响方面的有用性。经大流行前人口趋势调整后，我们的估计显示，COVID-19大流行对各年龄段的死亡率产生了巨大影响。

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引用次数: 0

COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Against Hospitalization in Older Adults, VEBIS Hospital Network, Europe, September 2024–May 2025 COVID-19疫苗对老年人住院治疗的有效性，欧洲VEBIS医院网络，2024年9月- 2025年5月。

IF 4.2 4区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1111/irv.70191

Madelyn Rojas-Castro, Nuno Verdasca, Susana Monge, Laurane De Mot, Camino Trobajo-Sanmartín, Róisín Duffy, Gergő Túri, Monika Kuliese, Ralf Duerrwald, Maria-Louise Borg, Odette Popovici, Verónica Gomez, Zvjezdana Lovrić Makarić, Odile Launay, Diogo F. P. Marques, Francisco Pozo, Arne Witdouck, Iván Martínez-Baz, Margaret Fitzgerald, Beatrix Oroszi, Ligita Jančorienė, Silke Buda, Ausra Dziugyte, Mihaela Lazăr, Ausenda Machado, Irena Tabain, Liem Binh Luong Nguyen, Eva Rivas Wagner, François Dufrasne, Jesús Castilla, Lisa Domegan, Viktória Velkey, Fausta Majauskaite, Carolin Hackmann, Nathalie Nicolay, Sabrina Bacci, Angela M. C. Rose

We estimated COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization in patients ≥ 60 years with severe acute respiratory infection, using a multicenter, test-negative, case–control study across seven sites in six European countries between September 2024 and May 2025. We included 352 cases (115 vaccinated; 33%) and 9980 controls (5024 vaccinated; 50%). VE was 42% (95% CI: 15; 61) 14–59 days post-vaccination, 32% (95% CI: −1; 54) at 60–119 days, and 36% (95% CI: 2; 60) at 120–179 days, and no effect thereafter. Among adults aged 60–79 and ≥ 80 years, we observed moderate VE against COVID-19 hospitalization for up to 2 and 4 months, respectively.

我们在2024年9月至2025年5月期间，在6个欧洲国家的7个地点进行了一项多中心、检测阴性的病例对照研究，评估了COVID-19疫苗对60岁以上严重急性呼吸道感染患者经pcr确诊的SARS-CoV-2住院治疗的有效性（VE）。我们纳入352例（115例接种疫苗，33%）和9980例对照（5024例接种疫苗，50%）。疫苗接种后14-59天的VE为42% (95% CI: 15; 61)， 60-119天的VE为32% (95% CI: -1; 54)， 120-179天的VE为36% (95% CI: 2; 60)，此后无效果。在60-79岁和≥80岁的成年人中，我们观察到针对COVID-19的中度VE住院时间分别长达2个月和4个月。

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