Houssein H. Ayoub, Hiam Chemaitelly, Laith J. Abu-Raddad
Background
The true extent of the severity and fatality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic remains uncertain. This study provides an approximate estimate of the global disease burden from the pandemic.
Methods
A cohort study followed the Qatari population from the onset of the pandemic to March 18, 2024, to estimate the age-specific incidence rates of severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19, classified according to World Health Organization criteria. A mathematical model then utilized these rates to generate regional and global estimates of COVID-19 severity and fatality.
Results
The incidence rate of any severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 throughout the pandemic was 1.13 (95% CI: 1.07–1.19) per 1000 person-years, while that of fatal COVID-19 alone was 0.11 (95% CI: 0.09–0.13) per 1000 person-years. Globally, the number of severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 cases was estimated at 61.9 million (95% UI: 55.0–69.9 million), while the number of fatal COVID-19 cases alone was estimated at 11.3 million (95% UI: 7.8–17.4 million). Both estimates showed large regional variations. Most severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19 cases occurred during the pre-Omicron phase of the pandemic.
Conclusions
The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound global impact on morbidity and mortality, emphasizing the critical need for preparedness for future pandemics.
{"title":"Global Estimates of COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality: A Cohort Study and Mathematical Model Analysis","authors":"Houssein H. Ayoub, Hiam Chemaitelly, Laith J. Abu-Raddad","doi":"10.1111/irv.70154","DOIUrl":"10.1111/irv.70154","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The true extent of the severity and fatality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic remains uncertain. This study provides an approximate estimate of the global disease burden from the pandemic.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A cohort study followed the Qatari population from the onset of the pandemic to March 18, 2024, to estimate the age-specific incidence rates of severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19, classified according to World Health Organization criteria. A mathematical model then utilized these rates to generate regional and global estimates of COVID-19 severity and fatality.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The incidence rate of any severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 throughout the pandemic was 1.13 (95% CI: 1.07–1.19) per 1000 person-years, while that of fatal COVID-19 alone was 0.11 (95% CI: 0.09–0.13) per 1000 person-years. Globally, the number of severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 cases was estimated at 61.9 million (95% UI: 55.0–69.9 million), while the number of fatal COVID-19 cases alone was estimated at 11.3 million (95% UI: 7.8–17.4 million). Both estimates showed large regional variations. Most severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19 cases occurred during the pre-Omicron phase of the pandemic.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound global impact on morbidity and mortality, emphasizing the critical need for preparedness for future pandemics.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13544,"journal":{"name":"Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses","volume":"19 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/irv.70154","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145654017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Emily K. Horn, David Singer, Alison Booth, Hai Nguyen, Cynthia Saiontz-Martinez, Ariel Berger
Background
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines are approved in the United States (US) among adults ≥ 60 years of age (YoA). Understanding disparities in risk factors (RFs) for severe RSV disease by social determinants of health is crucial for equitable RSV vaccination among at-risk adults. We investigated diagnosed/undiagnosed RF prevalence, age at RF diagnosis/identification, and association of key characteristics with RF diagnosis/identification among US adults.
Methods
We analyzed 2011–2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data to calculate RF prevalence and mean age at RF diagnosis/identification. Multivariable regression models were developed to estimate associations between characteristics and RF diagnosis/identification. Results were weighted to reflect the US noninstitutionalized adult population ≥ 20 YoA.
Results
After weighting, the analysis included a sample of 233,118,491 adults. Overall, 28.0% had ≥ 1 diagnosed RF (12.8% pulmonary; 9.2% cardiovascular; 14.1% endocrine/metabolic). Undiagnosed diabetes and renal disease were identified in 3.7% and 12.5% of adults, respectively. Among those with ≥ 1 diagnosed RF, mean age at RF diagnosis was 40.1 years and 60.0% were diagnosed before 50 YoA. Increasing age, belonging to a racial or ethnic minority group, and lower income were significantly associated with having ≥ 1 RF.
Conclusions
Approximately one in four adults had ≥ 1 diagnosed RF for RSV, with most diagnosed before 50 YoA. Adults in racial and ethnic minority and socioeconomically disadvantaged groups were more likely to have RFs and be diagnosed at younger ages. Efforts are needed to ensure all US adults at increased risk for severe RSV disease have access to RSV vaccination.
{"title":"Prevalence and Age at Diagnosis of Risk Factors for Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease Among US Adults: An Analysis of 2011–2020 NHANES Data","authors":"Emily K. Horn, David Singer, Alison Booth, Hai Nguyen, Cynthia Saiontz-Martinez, Ariel Berger","doi":"10.1111/irv.70181","DOIUrl":"10.1111/irv.70181","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines are approved in the United States (US) among adults ≥ 60 years of age (YoA). Understanding disparities in risk factors (RFs) for severe RSV disease by social determinants of health is crucial for equitable RSV vaccination among at-risk adults. We investigated diagnosed/undiagnosed RF prevalence, age at RF diagnosis/identification, and association of key characteristics with RF diagnosis/identification among US adults.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We analyzed 2011–2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data to calculate RF prevalence and mean age at RF diagnosis/identification. Multivariable regression models were developed to estimate associations between characteristics and RF diagnosis/identification. Results were weighted to reflect the US noninstitutionalized adult population ≥ 20 YoA.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>After weighting, the analysis included a sample of 233,118,491 adults. Overall, 28.0% had ≥ 1 diagnosed RF (12.8% pulmonary; 9.2% cardiovascular; 14.1% endocrine/metabolic). Undiagnosed diabetes and renal disease were identified in 3.7% and 12.5% of adults, respectively. Among those with ≥ 1 diagnosed RF, mean age at RF diagnosis was 40.1 years and 60.0% were diagnosed before 50 YoA. Increasing age, belonging to a racial or ethnic minority group, and lower income were significantly associated with having ≥ 1 RF.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Approximately one in four adults had ≥ 1 diagnosed RF for RSV, with most diagnosed before 50 YoA. Adults in racial and ethnic minority and socioeconomically disadvantaged groups were more likely to have RFs and be diagnosed at younger ages. Efforts are needed to ensure all US adults at increased risk for severe RSV disease have access to RSV vaccination.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13544,"journal":{"name":"Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses","volume":"19 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/irv.70181","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145648436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Vânia Gaio, Camila Henriques, Miguel Lança, Rita Marques, Raquel Marques, Marta Rodrigues, Sofia Almeida, Beatriz Sousa, Margarida Freitas, Diana Amaral, Sara Ferreira, Inês Azevedo, Madalena von Hafe, Rafaela Gonçalves, Regina Viseu, Teresa Bandeira, Carolina Constant, Madalena Malato, Inês Carvalho, Jorge Rodrigues, Margarida Farinha, Teresa Nunes, Teresa Graça, Sofia Gomez, Sara Soares, João Farela Neves, Paulo Paixão, Inês Piscalho, Ana Loureiro, Cristina Freitas, José Alves, Diana Soares, Paulo Lopes, Ausenda Machado, Raquel Guiomar, Ana Paula Rodrigues, VigiRSV Group
We assessed Nirsevimab effectiveness (NE) against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-related hospitalisation in eligible children (< 2 years) using a test-negative case–control design within the VigiRSV network (weeks 43/2024 to 16/2025). Among 341 participants (median age: 2 months; 91.2% without known chronic condition), 137 (40.2%) tested RSV-positive. Adjusted NE against RSV-related hospitalisation was 78.5% (95%CI: 59.3–89.0). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. These findings support Nirsevimab's effect in a predominantly healthy infant population and contribute to informing public health decisions for RSV immunisation.
我们评估了nirseimab对呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）相关住院治疗的有效性(
{"title":"Nirsevimab Effectiveness Against RSV-Related Hospitalisations in Children Under 24 Months: A Test-Negative Case–Control Study in Portugal, 2024–2025","authors":"Vânia Gaio, Camila Henriques, Miguel Lança, Rita Marques, Raquel Marques, Marta Rodrigues, Sofia Almeida, Beatriz Sousa, Margarida Freitas, Diana Amaral, Sara Ferreira, Inês Azevedo, Madalena von Hafe, Rafaela Gonçalves, Regina Viseu, Teresa Bandeira, Carolina Constant, Madalena Malato, Inês Carvalho, Jorge Rodrigues, Margarida Farinha, Teresa Nunes, Teresa Graça, Sofia Gomez, Sara Soares, João Farela Neves, Paulo Paixão, Inês Piscalho, Ana Loureiro, Cristina Freitas, José Alves, Diana Soares, Paulo Lopes, Ausenda Machado, Raquel Guiomar, Ana Paula Rodrigues, VigiRSV Group","doi":"10.1111/irv.70186","DOIUrl":"10.1111/irv.70186","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We assessed Nirsevimab effectiveness (NE) against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-related hospitalisation in eligible children (< 2 years) using a test-negative case–control design within the VigiRSV network (weeks 43/2024 to 16/2025). Among 341 participants (median age: 2 months; 91.2% without known chronic condition), 137 (40.2%) tested RSV-positive. Adjusted NE against RSV-related hospitalisation was 78.5% (95%CI: 59.3–89.0). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. These findings support Nirsevimab's effect in a predominantly healthy infant population and contribute to informing public health decisions for RSV immunisation.</p>","PeriodicalId":13544,"journal":{"name":"Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses","volume":"19 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/irv.70186","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145648504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
James Humphreys, Nathalie Nicolay, Toon Braeye, Izaak Van Evercooren, Christian Holm Hansen, Ida Rask Moustsen-Helms, Chiara Sacco, Massimo Fabiani, Jesús Castilla, Iván Martínez-Baz, Ausenda Machado, Patricia Soares, Rickard Ljung, Nicklas Pihlström, Esther Kissling, Anthony Nardone, Susana Monge, Sabrina Bacci, Baltazar Nunes, VEBIS-EHR working group
Background
After a period of low SARS-CoV-2 activity, viral circulation increased in Europe from May 2024, driven by immune-evasive KP sublineages of the JN.1 variant. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the XBB.1.5 dose administered in autumn 2023 against COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths in individuals 65 years of age or older during this period.
Methods
We conducted a multi-country cohort study across six EU nations in the VEBIS-EHR network using linked electronic health records. VE against COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death during June–August 2024 was estimated using Cox regression in a two-stage analysis, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities and prior vaccination history.
Results
Among individuals 65–79 and ≥ 80 years old, respectively, VE of the XBB.1.5 dose ≥ 6 months post administration was 13% (95% CI: −12% to 33%) and 7% (95% CI: −7% to 19%) against hospitalisation and 39% (95% CI: −7% to 65%) and 3% (95% CI: −23% to 23%) against deaths.
Conclusions
XBB.1.5 vaccination provided minimal residual protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes among adults aged ≥ 65 years more than 6 months after vaccination, during the summer 2024 period of increased SARS-CoV-2 activity.
{"title":"Effectiveness of the 2023 Autumn XBB.1.5 COVID-19 Booster During Summer 2024 in the EU/EEA: A VEBIS Electronic Health Record Network Study","authors":"James Humphreys, Nathalie Nicolay, Toon Braeye, Izaak Van Evercooren, Christian Holm Hansen, Ida Rask Moustsen-Helms, Chiara Sacco, Massimo Fabiani, Jesús Castilla, Iván Martínez-Baz, Ausenda Machado, Patricia Soares, Rickard Ljung, Nicklas Pihlström, Esther Kissling, Anthony Nardone, Susana Monge, Sabrina Bacci, Baltazar Nunes, VEBIS-EHR working group","doi":"10.1111/irv.70198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.70198","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>After a period of low SARS-CoV-2 activity, viral circulation increased in Europe from May 2024, driven by immune-evasive KP sublineages of the JN.1 variant. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the XBB.1.5 dose administered in autumn 2023 against COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths in individuals 65 years of age or older during this period.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We conducted a multi-country cohort study across six EU nations in the VEBIS-EHR network using linked electronic health records. VE against COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death during June–August 2024 was estimated using Cox regression in a two-stage analysis, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities and prior vaccination history.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Among individuals 65–79 and ≥ 80 years old, respectively, VE of the XBB.1.5 dose ≥ 6 months post administration was 13% (95% CI: −12% to 33%) and 7% (95% CI: −7% to 19%) against hospitalisation and 39% (95% CI: −7% to 65%) and 3% (95% CI: −23% to 23%) against deaths.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>XBB.1.5 vaccination provided minimal residual protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes among adults aged ≥ 65 years more than 6 months after vaccination, during the summer 2024 period of increased SARS-CoV-2 activity.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13544,"journal":{"name":"Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses","volume":"19 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/irv.70198","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145619345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Simon D. Pollett, Emily Hone, Stephanie A. Richard, Kat Schmidt, Mark P. Simons, Michele Wayman, Jennifer Rothenberg, Vivian Hogan, Robert J. O'Connell, Timothy H. Burgess, Daniel Ewing, Appavu K. Sundaram, Anthony C. Fries, Drake H. Tilley, Rhonda E. Colombo
We performed epidemiological, genetic, and antigenic characterization of an influenza A/H3N2 outbreak in a congregate setting of young adults with high vaccination rates. We noted substantial duty-days lost, rapid spread, and vaccine antigenic divergence. The risk of influenza in healthy vaccinated adults underscores the need to develop universal influenza vaccines.
{"title":"The Epidemiology, Phylogeny, and Strain Antigenicity of an Influenza A/H3N2 Virus Outbreak Among Vaccinated US Navy Midshipmen","authors":"Simon D. Pollett, Emily Hone, Stephanie A. Richard, Kat Schmidt, Mark P. Simons, Michele Wayman, Jennifer Rothenberg, Vivian Hogan, Robert J. O'Connell, Timothy H. Burgess, Daniel Ewing, Appavu K. Sundaram, Anthony C. Fries, Drake H. Tilley, Rhonda E. Colombo","doi":"10.1111/irv.70184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.70184","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We performed epidemiological, genetic, and antigenic characterization of an influenza A/H3N2 outbreak in a congregate setting of young adults with high vaccination rates. We noted substantial duty-days lost, rapid spread, and vaccine antigenic divergence. The risk of influenza in healthy vaccinated adults underscores the need to develop universal influenza vaccines.</p>","PeriodicalId":13544,"journal":{"name":"Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses","volume":"19 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/irv.70184","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145619344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Heather J. Whitaker, Freja C. M. Kirsebom, Katie Hassell, Catherine Quinot, Julia Stowe, Katja Hoschler, Maria Zambon, Nick J. Andrews, Conall H. Watson, Jamie Lopez Bernal
Background
Linkage of national, healthcare data can provide greater resolution of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza subtypes, as well as the relative effectiveness of different vaccine types and the effects of waning on VE. We present 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 end-of-season VE against hospitalisation with laboratory confirmed influenza for England.
Methods
A test-negative design was used to estimate VE against hospitalisation. Cases and controls were identified within national laboratory surveillance systems and linked to hospital admission data. Vaccine histories were obtained from England's vaccine register. We combined results on VE by vaccine type over the two seasons using a meta-analysis.
Results
One hundred thousand five hundred eighty-one (28,565 positive) and 113,494 (21,243 positive) samples were eligible for inclusion in 2022/2023 and 2023/2024, respectively. The overall VE for children aged 2–17 years was 67% (95% CI, 63%–70%) in 2022/2023 and 56% (95% CI, 51%–60%) in 2023/2024. For adults aged 18–64, VE was 34% (95% CI, 30%–38%) in 2022/2023 and 38% (95% CI, 34%–42%) in 2023/2024. For adults aged 65+ years, VE was 25% (95% CI, 21%–29%) in 2022/2023 and 18% (95% CI, 14%–22%) in 2023/2024. We found no significant difference in VE by vaccine type. We found evidence of reduced VE against influenza A in adults 9 weeks or more post vaccination compared with 2–8 weeks post vaccination.
Conclusions
Vaccine protection against influenza hospitalisation was seen in all age groups, with strong protection for children. Adult protection could be strengthened by vaccination closer to the time of expected influenza circulation. Linkage of routine healthcare data provided us with a sufficiently large data set to estimate differences in VE by vaccine type and timing after vaccination.
{"title":"Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccines and Duration of Protection Against Hospitalisation in England: 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 Seasons","authors":"Heather J. Whitaker, Freja C. M. Kirsebom, Katie Hassell, Catherine Quinot, Julia Stowe, Katja Hoschler, Maria Zambon, Nick J. Andrews, Conall H. Watson, Jamie Lopez Bernal","doi":"10.1111/irv.70194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.70194","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Linkage of national, healthcare data can provide greater resolution of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza subtypes, as well as the relative effectiveness of different vaccine types and the effects of waning on VE. We present 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 end-of-season VE against hospitalisation with laboratory confirmed influenza for England.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A test-negative design was used to estimate VE against hospitalisation. Cases and controls were identified within national laboratory surveillance systems and linked to hospital admission data. Vaccine histories were obtained from England's vaccine register. We combined results on VE by vaccine type over the two seasons using a meta-analysis.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>One hundred thousand five hundred eighty-one (28,565 positive) and 113,494 (21,243 positive) samples were eligible for inclusion in 2022/2023 and 2023/2024, respectively. The overall VE for children aged 2–17 years was 67% (95% CI, 63%–70%) in 2022/2023 and 56% (95% CI, 51%–60%) in 2023/2024. For adults aged 18–64, VE was 34% (95% CI, 30%–38%) in 2022/2023 and 38% (95% CI, 34%–42%) in 2023/2024. For adults aged 65+ years, VE was 25% (95% CI, 21%–29%) in 2022/2023 and 18% (95% CI, 14%–22%) in 2023/2024. We found no significant difference in VE by vaccine type. We found evidence of reduced VE against influenza A in adults 9 weeks or more post vaccination compared with 2–8 weeks post vaccination.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Vaccine protection against influenza hospitalisation was seen in all age groups, with strong protection for children. Adult protection could be strengthened by vaccination closer to the time of expected influenza circulation. Linkage of routine healthcare data provided us with a sufficiently large data set to estimate differences in VE by vaccine type and timing after vaccination.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13544,"journal":{"name":"Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses","volume":"19 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/irv.70194","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145626480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Demographic analysis is required to thoroughly evaluate the mortality impact of COVID-19 in Japan that cannot be captured by epidemiological surveillance.
Methods
A hierarchical time-varying regression model was applied to prefectural life table data in Japan during 2000–2019. Pre-pandemic baseline mortality rates and death counts during 2020–2022 were projected by this model to evaluate the mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality during 2020–2022.
Results
Nationally, the observed mortality rates were higher than projected rates among those aged 10–29 years and lower for ages 1–9 and > 80 years in 2020. During 2021 and 2022, mortality rates consistently increased for most age groups, with substantial regional heterogeneity in those aged < 14 years. Consistently, the neutral gaps between the observed and projected life expectancy across prefectures in 2020 turned negative in most prefectures during 2022. In 2022, the negative gap in life expectancy ranged from a substantial shortening of −1.50 years (95% prediction interval [PI]: −1.82, −1.16) in Okinawa to a slight shortening of −0.21 years (95% PI: −0.65, 0.22) in Tottori. Excess deaths per population also grew consistently in all prefectures during 2020–2022; Miyazaki yielded the largest estimate at 177.4 (95% PI: 144.9, 210.2) per 100,000 population.
Conclusions
Our framework highlights the usefulness of life table data for evaluating the mortality impact caused by an event such as the pandemic. Our estimates, adjusted by pre-pandemic demographic trends, revealed the massive mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across a wide age range.
{"title":"Demographic Analysis of Mortality Changes Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan, 2020–2022","authors":"Yuta Okada, Hiroshi Nishiura","doi":"10.1111/irv.70196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.70196","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Backgrounds</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Demographic analysis is required to thoroughly evaluate the mortality impact of COVID-19 in Japan that cannot be captured by epidemiological surveillance.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A hierarchical time-varying regression model was applied to prefectural life table data in Japan during 2000–2019. Pre-pandemic baseline mortality rates and death counts during 2020–2022 were projected by this model to evaluate the mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality during 2020–2022.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Nationally, the observed mortality rates were higher than projected rates among those aged 10–29 years and lower for ages 1–9 and > 80 years in 2020. During 2021 and 2022, mortality rates consistently increased for most age groups, with substantial regional heterogeneity in those aged < 14 years. Consistently, the neutral gaps between the observed and projected life expectancy across prefectures in 2020 turned negative in most prefectures during 2022. In 2022, the negative gap in life expectancy ranged from a substantial shortening of −1.50 years (95% prediction interval [PI]: −1.82, −1.16) in Okinawa to a slight shortening of −0.21 years (95% PI: −0.65, 0.22) in Tottori. Excess deaths per population also grew consistently in all prefectures during 2020–2022; Miyazaki yielded the largest estimate at 177.4 (95% PI: 144.9, 210.2) per 100,000 population.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our framework highlights the usefulness of life table data for evaluating the mortality impact caused by an event such as the pandemic. Our estimates, adjusted by pre-pandemic demographic trends, revealed the massive mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across a wide age range.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13544,"journal":{"name":"Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses","volume":"19 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/irv.70196","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145626481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Madelyn Rojas-Castro, Nuno Verdasca, Susana Monge, Laurane De Mot, Camino Trobajo-Sanmartín, Róisín Duffy, Gergő Túri, Monika Kuliese, Ralf Duerrwald, Maria-Louise Borg, Odette Popovici, Verónica Gomez, Zvjezdana Lovrić Makarić, Odile Launay, Diogo F. P. Marques, Francisco Pozo, Arne Witdouck, Iván Martínez-Baz, Margaret Fitzgerald, Beatrix Oroszi, Ligita Jančorienė, Silke Buda, Ausra Dziugyte, Mihaela Lazăr, Ausenda Machado, Irena Tabain, Liem Binh Luong Nguyen, Eva Rivas Wagner, François Dufrasne, Jesús Castilla, Lisa Domegan, Viktória Velkey, Fausta Majauskaite, Carolin Hackmann, Nathalie Nicolay, Sabrina Bacci, Angela M. C. Rose
We estimated COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization in patients ≥ 60 years with severe acute respiratory infection, using a multicenter, test-negative, case–control study across seven sites in six European countries between September 2024 and May 2025. We included 352 cases (115 vaccinated; 33%) and 9980 controls (5024 vaccinated; 50%). VE was 42% (95% CI: 15; 61) 14–59 days post-vaccination, 32% (95% CI: −1; 54) at 60–119 days, and 36% (95% CI: 2; 60) at 120–179 days, and no effect thereafter. Among adults aged 60–79 and ≥ 80 years, we observed moderate VE against COVID-19 hospitalization for up to 2 and 4 months, respectively.
{"title":"COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Against Hospitalization in Older Adults, VEBIS Hospital Network, Europe, September 2024–May 2025","authors":"Madelyn Rojas-Castro, Nuno Verdasca, Susana Monge, Laurane De Mot, Camino Trobajo-Sanmartín, Róisín Duffy, Gergő Túri, Monika Kuliese, Ralf Duerrwald, Maria-Louise Borg, Odette Popovici, Verónica Gomez, Zvjezdana Lovrić Makarić, Odile Launay, Diogo F. P. Marques, Francisco Pozo, Arne Witdouck, Iván Martínez-Baz, Margaret Fitzgerald, Beatrix Oroszi, Ligita Jančorienė, Silke Buda, Ausra Dziugyte, Mihaela Lazăr, Ausenda Machado, Irena Tabain, Liem Binh Luong Nguyen, Eva Rivas Wagner, François Dufrasne, Jesús Castilla, Lisa Domegan, Viktória Velkey, Fausta Majauskaite, Carolin Hackmann, Nathalie Nicolay, Sabrina Bacci, Angela M. C. Rose","doi":"10.1111/irv.70191","DOIUrl":"10.1111/irv.70191","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimated COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization in patients ≥ 60 years with severe acute respiratory infection, using a multicenter, test-negative, case–control study across seven sites in six European countries between September 2024 and May 2025. We included 352 cases (115 vaccinated; 33%) and 9980 controls (5024 vaccinated; 50%). VE was 42% (95% CI: 15; 61) 14–59 days post-vaccination, 32% (95% CI: −1; 54) at 60–119 days, and 36% (95% CI: 2; 60) at 120–179 days, and no effect thereafter. Among adults aged 60–79 and ≥ 80 years, we observed moderate VE against COVID-19 hospitalization for up to 2 and 4 months, respectively.</p>","PeriodicalId":13544,"journal":{"name":"Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses","volume":"19 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/irv.70191","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145603932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Johanna Hol Fosse, Grim Rømo, Francesco Bonfante, Ida Kristin Myhrvold, Kristin Stangeland Soetart, Kristin Udjus, Ragnhild Tønnessen
A 2023 outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in seabirds in Norway caused substantial environmental contamination of grazing areas frequented by local sheep. Eleven months later, 220 sheep were tested for antibodies to type A influenza and H5 subtype using ELISA, haemagglutination inhibition and microneutralisation assays. One ewe (0.5%) tested positive by all methods, consistent with prior spillover infection. This underscores the importance of restricting livestock access to outbreak areas to mitigate cross-species transmission and zoonotic risk.
{"title":"Detection of Antibodies Specific to H5 Avian Influenza Virus in a Sheep in Norway, June 2024, 11 Months After an Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in a Nearby Seabird Colony","authors":"Johanna Hol Fosse, Grim Rømo, Francesco Bonfante, Ida Kristin Myhrvold, Kristin Stangeland Soetart, Kristin Udjus, Ragnhild Tønnessen","doi":"10.1111/irv.70182","DOIUrl":"10.1111/irv.70182","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A 2023 outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in seabirds in Norway caused substantial environmental contamination of grazing areas frequented by local sheep. Eleven months later, 220 sheep were tested for antibodies to type A influenza and H5 subtype using ELISA, haemagglutination inhibition and microneutralisation assays. One ewe (0.5%) tested positive by all methods, consistent with prior spillover infection. This underscores the importance of restricting livestock access to outbreak areas to mitigate cross-species transmission and zoonotic risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":13544,"journal":{"name":"Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses","volume":"19 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12626899/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145549298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Daniel Aguilar Figueroa, Gloria Pérez-Gimeno, Olivier Núñez, Susana Monge, The SiVIRA Surveillance and Vaccine Effectiveness Working Group
We estimated the burden of influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and RSV from patients hospitalized with acute respiratory infection systematically tested between weeks 40/2024 and 20/2025 in Spain. The hospitalization rate per 100,000 was highest for influenza [67.5 (95% Confidence Interval: 52.5–87.3)] followed by RSV [46.6 (35.4–62.2)] and SARS-CoV-2 [15.8 (10.2–24.6)]. Hospitalization rates peaked in ≥ 60-year-olds and < 5-year-olds, ICU admissions in < 1-year-olds and deaths in ≥ 80-year-olds. Hospitalization for SARS-CoV-2 at 80–85 years was comparable to influenza at 60–65 years, potentially signaling the appropriateness of increasing the COVID-19 vaccination age cut-off. RSV prevention appeared a priority in < 5-year-olds but substantial preventive potential was identified in the elderly.
{"title":"Burden of Severe Disease Associated With Influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and RSV in Spain During the 2024–2025 Winter Season","authors":"Daniel Aguilar Figueroa, Gloria Pérez-Gimeno, Olivier Núñez, Susana Monge, The SiVIRA Surveillance and Vaccine Effectiveness Working Group","doi":"10.1111/irv.70190","DOIUrl":"10.1111/irv.70190","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimated the burden of influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and RSV from patients hospitalized with acute respiratory infection systematically tested between weeks 40/2024 and 20/2025 in Spain. The hospitalization rate per 100,000 was highest for influenza [67.5 (95% Confidence Interval: 52.5–87.3)] followed by RSV [46.6 (35.4–62.2)] and SARS-CoV-2 [15.8 (10.2–24.6)]. Hospitalization rates peaked in ≥ 60-year-olds and < 5-year-olds, ICU admissions in < 1-year-olds and deaths in ≥ 80-year-olds. Hospitalization for SARS-CoV-2 at 80–85 years was comparable to influenza at 60–65 years, potentially signaling the appropriateness of increasing the COVID-19 vaccination age cut-off. RSV prevention appeared a priority in < 5-year-olds but substantial preventive potential was identified in the elderly.</p>","PeriodicalId":13544,"journal":{"name":"Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses","volume":"19 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12624269/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145540327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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