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Improving the reporting of ecotoxicity data: will SETAC lead the way? 改进生态毒性数据报告:SETAC会带头吗?
IF 8.4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1093/inteam/vjaf197
Caroline T A Moermond, Antonio Franco, M Carmen Casado-Martinez, Karen Kidd, Muris Korkaric, Marlene Ågerstrand
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引用次数: 0
Plastics and the Environment: Challenges, Impacts, and Pathways to Sustainability. 塑料与环境:挑战、影响和可持续发展的途径。
IF 8.4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1093/inteam/vjaf193
Rinku Rana, Abhilasha Mishra, Rekha Goswami, Akil Ahmad, Waseem Ahmad

Plastics have revolutionised modern life thanks to their versatility, durability, and low production costs. However, their persistence in the environment has become one of the most pressing global challenges. This review looks closely at the full life cycle of plastics from polymerisation and processing to manufacturing and use across different industries. It also critically examines the environmental impacts of plastic waste. Special attention is given to the two main categories of plastics, thermoplastics and thermosets and the unique challenges they pose for waste management and recycling. We discuss common processing methods like injection moulding, extrusion, blow moulding, and additional operations, with a focus on how they influence material recovery and sustainability efforts. The review also explores various strategies to reduce plastic pollution, including cutting plastic use at the source, promoting reusable alternatives, advancing mechanical and chemical recycling, and developing new biodegradable polymers. Furthermore, it highlights the role of strong policy actions, increased public awareness, and AI-driven recycling systems in moving towards a circular plastic economy. By combining innovation in materials science with environmental responsibility and socio-economic strategies, this review identifies key pathways for sustainable plastic management and stresses the need for interdisciplinary collaboration to address the global plastic crisis.

塑料以其多功能性、耐用性和低生产成本彻底改变了现代生活。然而,它们在环境中的持久性已成为最紧迫的全球挑战之一。这篇综述密切关注塑料的整个生命周期,从聚合和加工到不同行业的制造和使用。它还严格审查了塑料废物对环境的影响。特别关注塑料的两个主要类别,热塑性塑料和热固性塑料及其对废物管理和回收构成的独特挑战。我们讨论了常见的加工方法,如注塑、挤出、吹塑和其他操作,重点是它们如何影响材料回收和可持续性努力。该报告还探讨了减少塑料污染的各种策略,包括从源头上减少塑料的使用,推广可重复使用的替代品,推进机械和化学回收,以及开发新的可生物降解聚合物。此外,它还强调了强有力的政策行动、提高公众意识和人工智能驱动的回收系统在实现循环塑料经济方面的作用。通过将材料科学的创新与环境责任和社会经济战略相结合,本综述确定了可持续塑料管理的关键途径,并强调了跨学科合作解决全球塑料危机的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Challenges and Solutions for Nutrient Efficiency and Waste Valorization in the Island Agri-Food System in Taiwan. 台湾海岛农业食品系统养分效率与废弃物增值之挑战与对策。
IF 8.4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-14 DOI: 10.1093/inteam/vjaf187
Yen-Tzu Fan, Yi-Hsiang Lee, Zih-Ee Lin, Pei-Te Chiueh

Sustainable nutrient management remains a critical challenge for agri-food systems worldwide, particularly in resource-constrained island regions. Excessive nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses, driven by reliance on imported fertilizers, feed, and inefficient waste management, contribute to eutrophication, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil degradation. These environmental burdens undermine the resilience and sustainability of food systems. This study employed material flow analysis (MFA) to evaluate nutrient flows and losses in Taiwan, a densely populated island that is highly dependent on external nutrient inputs. Results indicate annual inflows of 358.6 kt N and 118.3 kt P, of which 84% of N and 48% of P are lost, primarily through domestic and industrial wastewater discharge and manure mismanagement. Scenario-based assessments demonstrate that enhanced biowaste recycling, including livestock manure, food waste, and wastewater, could reduce fertilizer imports and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by up to 98,299 t CO2 eq annually. While some progress has been made in municipal wastewater valorization, broader implementation of nutrient recovery strategies remains limited. The findings underscore the need for integrated policy frameworks and cross-sectoral collaboration to enhance nutrient circularity, reduce environmental pressures, and support cleaner food production in island settings. This study provides a comprehensive systems-level assessment of nutrient use inefficiencies and recovery opportunities, offering actionable insights for decision-makers and environmental planners. The approach and findings are relevant for developing science-based policies to improve sustainability in vulnerable agri-food systems globally.

可持续营养管理仍然是全球农业粮食系统面临的重大挑战,特别是在资源有限的岛屿地区。对进口肥料和饲料的依赖以及低效的废物管理造成了氮和磷的过度流失,造成了富营养化、温室气体排放和土壤退化。这些环境负担破坏了粮食系统的复原力和可持续性。摘要本研究以物质流分析法(MFA)评估台湾这个人口密集且高度依赖外来养分输入的岛屿的养分流动与流失。结果表明,每年流入358.6万吨氮和118.3万吨磷,其中84%的氮和48%的磷损失,主要是由于家庭和工业废水排放以及粪便管理不善。基于情景的评估表明,加强生物废物回收利用,包括畜禽粪便、食物垃圾和废水,可减少化肥进口,每年减少温室气体排放高达98,299吨二氧化碳当量。虽然在城市污水处理方面取得了一些进展,但营养物回收战略的广泛实施仍然有限。研究结果强调需要建立综合政策框架和跨部门合作,以加强营养循环,减少环境压力,并支持岛屿环境中更清洁的粮食生产。本研究对养分利用效率低下和回收机会进行了全面的系统级评估,为决策者和环境规划者提供了可行的见解。该方法和发现对于制定基于科学的政策以提高全球脆弱农业粮食系统的可持续性具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating Bioaccumulation Potential of Cyclic and Linear Volatile Methylsiloxanes in Aquatic and Terrestrial Species: A Comprehensive Analysis Using the Bioaccumulation Assessment Tool. 水生和陆生物种对环型和线性挥发性甲基硅氧烷的生物积累潜力评价:利用生物积累评估工具的综合分析
IF 8.4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-14 DOI: 10.1093/inteam/vjaf194
Jaeshin Kim, Debra A McNett, Sami Belkhiria, Kathleen P Plotzke

A comprehensive analysis of the bioaccumulation of three cyclic (namely, D4, D5, and D6) and five linear (namely, L2, L3, L4, L5, and L6) volatile methylsiloxanes (VMS) in biota was conducted by reviewing 50 published articles and laboratory reports on aquatic (82%) and terrestrial species (18%). A total of 178 bioaccumulation values were evaluated employing a quantitative weight-of-evidence (qWoE) approach provided by the Bioaccumulation Assessment Tool. Considerable variability of bioconcentration factor (BCF) and bioaccumulation factor (BAF) values was observed for VMS in aquatic organisms, which ranged from below to above their respective regulatory threshold values. The frequency of evidence for non-bioaccumulation (ie, BCF or BAF <2000) was ≥50% for D6, L2, L5, and L6. Conversely, laboratory biomagnification factor (BMF) values were generally (≥71%) less than 1, indicating low bioaccumulation potential through dietary uptake. Field BMFs displayed more variability but still suggested a low bioaccumulation potential. Despite the majority (≥65%) of trophic magnification factors (TMFs) in aquatic food webs being below 1, the broad range of TMF values for all VMS examined indicates potential uncertainties introduced by environmental factors in the target environments (e.g., chemical exposure gradient) and sampling bias. Overall, lines of evidence (≥71%) suggest that cyclic and linear VMS generally do not bioaccumulate in aquatic species, with dietary uptake being the primary pathway. For terrestrial species, primarily rats, predicted and field BMFs were less than 1 at 37 °C, primarily via respiratory elimination. Field TMFs for terrestrial food webs, including invertebrates and various bird species with body temperatures of 18 and 40 °C, respectively, were sourced from a single study, where D4 demonstrated trophic dilution, while D5 and D6 generally did not biomagnify in this terrestrial food web.

通过对水生物种(82%)和陆生物种(18%)发表的50篇论文和实验室报告,对3种环状(D4、D5和D6)和5种线性(L2、L3、L4、L5和L6)挥发性甲基硅氧烷(VMS)在生物群中的生物积累进行了综合分析。采用生物积累评估工具提供的定量证据权重(qWoE)方法评估了总共178个生物积累值。在水生生物中观察到VMS的生物浓缩因子(BCF)和生物积累因子(BAF)值具有相当大的变异性,其范围从低于或高于各自的调节阈值。非生物积累证据(即BCF或BAF)的频率
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引用次数: 0
Impact assessment of ship scrubber effluents reveals adverse effects at realistic environmental concentrations-combining a systematic review of whole effluent ecotoxicological studies with dilution modelling. 船舶洗涤器污水的影响评估揭示了在实际环境浓度下的不利影响-结合对整个污水生态毒理学研究的系统回顾和稀释模型。
IF 8.4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-14 DOI: 10.1093/inteam/vjaf192
Anna Lunde Hermansson, Amanda T Nylund, Ida-Maja Hassellöv, Nelson Abrantes, Ana Ré, Chiau Yu Chen, Maria Granberg, Kerstin Magnusson, Marco Picone, Elisa Giubilato, Ian D Williams, Lina M Zapata-Restrepo, Erik Ytreberg

Concerns regarding the potential adverse effects of ship-generated scrubber effluent discharged to the marine environment and the growing number of ecotoxicological experiments have motivated a systematic review of the available whole effluent toxicity (WET) studies where marine organisms have been exposed to scrubber effluent. All available WET studies on scrubber effluent exposure were assessed with respect to reliability and relevance, and the respective toxicity metrics (including effect concentrations and no/lowest observed effect concentration) were compiled to determine hazardous concentrations by applying a probabilistic approach. The ecotoxicological impact was assessed by relating the subsequent hazard concentrations, derived from species sensitivity distribution curves as the potentially affected fraction of species, to estimated environmental concentrations. Environmental concentrations were estimated from previous studies that have modelled scrubber effluent dilution or conducted in situ measurement of dilution of ship-generated waste. The hazardous concentration for 5% of the species was determined at 0.0003%, corresponding to environmentally realistic concentrations. Despite the wide range of confidence limits, the results indicate that the discharge of scrubber effluents, particularly from open loop systems, poses a significant environmental hazard. These findings provide a scientific basis for future risk and impact assessments of scrubber effluents, contributing to the ongoing policy discussion regarding the need to restrict scrubber water discharges.

由于对排放到海洋环境的船舶洗涤器排出物的潜在不利影响的关注,以及越来越多的生态毒理学实验,促使人们对现有的关于海洋生物暴露于洗涤器排出物的全流出物毒性(WET)研究进行系统审查。对所有可用的关于洗涤器流出物暴露的WET研究进行了可靠性和相关性评估,并编制了各自的毒性指标(包括影响浓度和无/最低观察到的影响浓度),以应用概率方法确定危险浓度。生态毒理学影响是通过将随后的危害浓度(从物种敏感性分布曲线得出的潜在受影响的物种比例)与估计的环境浓度相关联来评估的。环境浓度是根据以前的研究估计的,这些研究模拟了洗涤器流出物的稀释或对船舶产生的废物的稀释进行了现场测量。5%的物种的危险浓度被确定为0.0003%,与环境实际浓度相对应。尽管置信限的范围很广,但结果表明,洗涤器流出物的排放,特别是开环系统的排放,对环境造成了重大危害。这些研究结果为今后对洗涤器排放的风险和影响进行评估提供了科学依据,有助于就限制洗涤器排放水的必要性进行正在进行的政策讨论。
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引用次数: 0
Mining discharges and environmental assessment and management in estuaries: Insights from the Guadalquivir Estuary (Spain). 河口的采矿排放和环境评估与管理:来自瓜达尔基维尔河口的见解(西班牙)。
IF 8.4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-14 DOI: 10.1093/inteam/vjaf191
Jesús M Castillo, Sara Sirviente, Miguel Bruno, Remedios Cabrera Castro, Jairo Sánchez-Rodríguez, Carlos Granado, Blanca Gallego-Tévar, Juan Miguel Miró, Manuel Díez-Minguito

The advancement of low-carbon energy hinges on access to energy transition minerals, driving the development of new mining projects. This review assesses the potential ecological risks of mining discharges in estuaries, with the Guadalquivir Estuary as focal study system. We considered physical, chemical, hydrodynamic, and biological characteristics. Substantial portion of discharged metals would be absorbed by particulate matter and deposited in bottom sediments. The inner estuary, a low-salinity, hypoxic, and sediment-trapping environment, is particularly vulnerable. Its confinement by a dam, coupled with reduced freshwater flow due to climate change and water overuse, exacerbates the retention of pollutants. Furthermore, a recent mining discharge from Las Cruces Mine carried out since 2009 have already compromised the estuary's sediments with high loads of ecotoxic metals. Moreover, two new authorized mining discharges could further contaminate the inner estuary and the downstream Fishing Reserve, where increased salinity may mobilize metals. Riparian forests and Spartina grasslands remain particularly vulnerable to metal pollution. Our analysis highlights the limitations of current environmental assessments, which often oversimplify the complex dynamics of the Guadalquivir Estuary. To adhere to the precautionary principle, we recommend a moratorium on new mining discharges. This aligns with the Non-Deterioration Principle of the Water Framework Directive, emphasizing the need to prevent further degradation of aquatic environments. We propose future research lines to investigate the dynamics of metal pollution and its environmental impacts. Our analysis shows the complexity of estuarine ecosystems and points to the importance of assessing metal metabolism in relation, especially, to sediments and biota in the current context of increasing mining activity.

低碳能源的推进取决于能源转型矿产的获取,推动新矿业项目的发展。本文以瓜达尔基维尔河口为重点研究系统,对河口采矿排放的潜在生态风险进行了评价。我们考虑了物理、化学、流体动力学和生物特性。排放的金属有相当一部分会被微粒物质吸收并沉积在底部沉积物中。河口内是一个低盐度、低氧和沉积物聚集的环境,尤其脆弱。大坝的限制,加上气候变化和水资源过度使用导致的淡水流量减少,加剧了污染物的滞留。此外,自2009年以来,拉斯克鲁塞斯矿最近的采矿排放已经使河口的沉积物受到大量生态有毒金属的损害。此外,两个新批准的采矿排放可能进一步污染内河口和下游渔业保护区,那里的盐度增加可能会调动金属。河岸森林和米草属草地仍然特别容易受到金属污染。我们的分析突出了当前环境评估的局限性,这些评估往往过于简化了瓜达尔基维尔河口的复杂动态。为了遵守预防原则,我们建议暂停新的采矿排放。这与《水框架指令》的不恶化原则一致,强调必须防止水生环境进一步退化。我们提出未来的研究方向,以探讨金属污染的动态及其对环境的影响。我们的分析显示了河口生态系统的复杂性,并指出了在当前采矿活动日益增加的背景下评估金属代谢的重要性,特别是与沉积物和生物群的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Safe and Sustainable-by-Design under The European Green Deal - Regulatory Readiness or Pressure for Companies? 欧洲绿色协议下的安全和可持续设计——监管准备还是企业压力?
IF 8.4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1093/inteam/vjaf188
Akshat Sudheshwar, Christina Apel, Klaus Kümmerer, Lya G Soeteman-Hernández, Johanna K Scheper, Andreas Falk, Annika Batel, Jochen Markard, Claudia Som, Zhanyun Wang, Bernd Nowack

The European Green Deal, popular for its "2050 climate neutrality" target, also postulates the "zero pollution ambition for a toxic-free environment", supported through the Chemicals Strategy for Sustainability (CSS). The CSS mentions Safe and Sustainable-by-Design (SSbD), calling for the integration of safety and sustainability into innovation. Developing the SSbD framework further is a key action enabling both CSS objectives and the broader Green Deal ambitions. Yet, SSbD's complexity and data demands are seen by many companies as burdensome, while the benefits of SSbD adoption remain unclear. Therefore, this study examines SSbD's role in "regulatory readiness", ie, proactive development of novel chemicals, materials, and products for compliance before market entry and for adaptability to future regulations. By analyzing 15 EU policies (prioritized through industry feedback) against 15 SSbD components, this study finds a 64% overlap, ie, many mandates for SSbD components are observed within the analyzed legislation. The findings of this study inform recommendations for industry and policymakers to foster industrial competitiveness in the EU. Companies are recommended to leverage SSbD for early regulatory readiness, internalize SSbD's "fail early and fail cheap" philosophy, and invest in SSbD capacity building. Policymakers are recommended to incentivize corporate SSbD adoption, explicitly integrate SSbD into future legislation, and invest in research to address critical gaps in safety and sustainability sciences to strengthen SSbD further.

因其“2050年气候中和”目标而广受欢迎的《欧洲绿色协议》也提出了“零污染、无毒害环境的目标”,并得到了《化学品可持续发展战略》(CSS)的支持。CSS提到了安全与可持续设计(SSbD),呼吁将安全和可持续性融入创新。进一步发展SSbD框架是实现CSS目标和更广泛的绿色协议目标的关键行动。然而,SSbD的复杂性和数据需求被许多公司视为负担,而采用SSbD的好处尚不清楚。因此,本研究考察了SSbD在“监管准备”中的作用,即在进入市场之前积极开发新型化学品、材料和产品,以符合法规要求,并适应未来的法规。通过分析15项针对15个SSbD组件的欧盟政策(通过行业反馈优先排序),本研究发现了64%的重叠,即在分析的立法中观察到许多针对SSbD组件的授权。本研究的结果为工业和政策制定者提供了促进欧盟工业竞争力的建议。建议公司利用SSbD进行早期监管准备,内化SSbD的“早失败,低成本失败”哲学,并投资于SSbD能力建设。建议政策制定者鼓励企业采用SSbD,明确将SSbD纳入未来立法,并投资于研究,以解决安全和可持续性科学方面的关键差距,进一步加强SSbD。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste composting: Comparing landfilling and incineration scenarios towards a sustainable approach. 城市固体废物堆肥的环境评估:比较堆填和焚化方案,以实现可持续发展。
IF 8.4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1093/inteam/vjaf161
Hajar Abyar, Sahel Pakzad-Toochaei, Fatemeh Einollahipeer, Somayeh Namroodi, Hassan Rezaei

Driven by the high contents of organic materials in municipal solid waste (MSW) by 70% in Iran and the growing demand for mineral fertilizer, refinement of the composting technology is imperative. In the pursuit of environmental sustainability, further investigation into the life cycle assessment of the composting process and end-of-life waste management must be conducted. Hence, this study scrutinized the environmental burdens of the composting plant operation from cradle to gate. Since 50% of the raw MSW was not converted to compost, its final disposal was evaluated based on incineration, landfill, and integrated approaches. The results indicated marine and freshwater ecotoxicity of the composting process (> 50.4 kg 1,4-DB eq). Heavy metal and gas emissions during the MSW decomposition were the pivotal parameters for most impact categories. CO2 emission intensified climate change by 3523 kg CO2 eq; however, waste incineration led to emission savings of 98.75%. The environmental benefits of incineration were observed in 13 impact categories alongside a net-negative value for natural land transformation. Landfilling also induced savings in freshwater eutrophication and metal depletion by 98.67% and 99.08%, respectively. Unlike previous studies relying on generalized data, this study uses detailed, plant-level operational data and scenario-based modeling from Sistan and Baluchestan province. This approach provides realistic impact estimates and decision-relevant insights.

伊朗城市固体废物(MSW)中有机物质的含量高达70%,对矿物肥料的需求不断增长,因此改进堆肥技术势在必行。为了追求环境的可持续性,必须对堆肥过程的生命周期评估和报废废物管理进行进一步调查。因此,本研究考察了堆肥厂从摇篮到闸门运行的环境负担。由于50%的原生活垃圾没有转化为堆肥,因此对其最终处置进行了基于焚烧,填埋和综合方法的评估。结果表明,堆肥过程的海洋和淡水生态毒性(> 50.4 kg 1,4- db eq)。城市生活垃圾分解过程中的重金属和气体排放是大多数影响类别的关键参数。二氧化碳排放使气候变化加剧3523 kg CO2当量;然而,垃圾焚烧使排放减少了98.75%。在13个影响类别中观察到焚烧的环境效益,同时对自然土地转化产生净负价值。填埋还可分别减少淡水富营养化98.67%和金属耗竭99.08%。与以往依赖于广义数据的研究不同,本研究使用了来自锡斯坦和俾路支斯坦省的详细的工厂级操作数据和基于场景的建模。这种方法提供了现实的影响估计和与决策相关的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Nature-Based Solution for Polluted Landscapes: Integrating Ecological Indicators and Phytoremediation for Sustainable Environmental Management. 基于自然的污染景观解决方案:整合生态指标和植物修复以实现可持续环境管理。
IF 8.4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1093/inteam/vjaf184
Zeeshan Ahmad, Jiangbo Rao, Wenfu Zhang, Guorui Xu, Jie Yang

Understanding how polluted ecosystems self-regulate in response to contamination is important for developing nature based solutions for environmental management. However, plant species identification with the highest role in environmental management remains a major challenge. This study applies ecological principles to identify and assess plant indicators for environmental management in lead-zinc and manganese mining polluted ecosystems. A total of 234 plant species were recorded, of which key indicator species were identified using Indicator Species Analysis (ISA) and validated through Generalized Linear Models (GLM). Macaranga pustulata, Leucosceptrum canum, and Hypoestes triflora were identified as key indicators in lead-zinc and Morus macroura, Woodfordia fruticosa, and Eremochloa ciliaris in manganese polluted environments. Phytoremediation assessments showed that H. triflora hyperaccumulates Pb, Zn, Cd, Cr, Ni and E. ciliaris accumulates Cr, Cu, Cd and Ni (BCF, TF and BAC values >1). Macaranga pustulata, M. macroura and W. fruticosa demonstrated strong phyto-stabilization potential against different heavy metals. These results were further validated by Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) which comprehend a significant relationship between heavy metal pollution and plant bioaccumulation traits. This study presents a systematic ecological approach for appropriate plants selection for environmental management and recommends the integration of these indicator species into restoration and sustainability programs.

了解受污染的生态系统如何自我调节以应对污染,对于开发基于自然的环境管理解决方案非常重要。然而,在环境管理中发挥最大作用的植物物种鉴定仍然是一个重大挑战。本研究应用生态学原理对铅锌锰矿污染生态系统植物环境管理指标进行识别和评价。利用指标种分析法(ISA)鉴定了关键指示种,并利用广义线性模型(GLM)对其进行了验证。结果表明,在锰污染环境中,灰质Macaranga pustulata、canum Leucosceptrum和Hypoestes triflora是铅锌含量的关键指标,而Morus macoura、Woodfordia fruticosa和Eremochloa ciliaris是铅锌的关键指标。植物修复评价结果显示,三花莲对Pb、Zn、Cd、Cr、Ni的富集能力较强,而毛毛莲对Cr、Cu、Cd和Ni的富集能力较强(BCF、TF和BAC值均为bb0.1)。对不同重金属具有较强的植物稳定性。应用广义线性混合模型(GLMM)进一步验证了重金属污染与植物生物积累性状之间的关系。本研究提出了一种系统的生态方法,为环境管理选择合适的植物,并建议将这些指示物种纳入恢复和可持续发展计划。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change impact on the niche dynamics of Diospyros crumenata, a critically endangered tree species in Western Ghats-Sri Lanka Biodiversity Hotspot. 气候变化对西高止山脉—斯里兰卡生物多样性热点地区极危树种沙棘生态位动态的影响
IF 8.4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1093/inteam/vjaf179
Jithu K Jose, K R L Saranya, Siddharthan Surveswaran

Climate change is one of the major reasons for biodiversity decline. Due to a changing climate, trees experience shrinking and shifting of ecologically suited areas, which ultimately leads to population loss and even extinction. A recent global assessment of trees indicates that nearly 40% are at extinction. Diospyros crumenata Thwaites (Ebenaceae) is a critically endangered tree species, endemic to the evergreen and semi-evergreen forests of the Western Ghats-Sri Lanka biodiversity hotspot. This tree species, which is economically and ecologically important, is facing serious threats in its natural habitat and needs immediate conservation measures. The current work sought to comprehend D. crumenata's distribution pattern and habitat appropriateness under present and future climate change scenarios (2050 and 2070) using MaxEnt. The research also aimed to determine the main environmental factors influencing the distribution of D. crumenata. We used 19 bioclimatic variables and other topographical variables including elevation, slope, aspect, and soil data for predicting the current and future potential distribution of the species. Along with this, we used three different global climate models -HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MICROC6, and BCC-CSM2-MR, for 2050 and 2070, using four SSP scenarios for predicting the future distribution of species. An area under the curve value of 0.926 indicated that the MaxEnt modelling performed exceptionally well in forecasting the distribution of D. crumenata. We found that precipitation of the wettest month, followed by elevation, precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, and precipitation of the wettest quarter are the most significant variables.

气候变化是生物多样性下降的主要原因之一。由于气候变化,树木经历了生态适宜区域的萎缩和转移,最终导致种群减少甚至灭绝。最近的一项全球树木评估表明,近40%的树木濒临灭绝。Diospyros crumenata Thwaites (Ebenaceae)是一种极度濒危的树种,是西高止山脉-斯里兰卡生物多样性热点地区常绿和半常绿森林的特有物种。该树种具有重要的经济和生态价值,其自然栖息地正面临严重威胁,需要立即采取保护措施。利用MaxEnt分析了在当前和未来气候变化情景(2050年和2070年)下毛蚶的分布格局和生境适宜性。研究还旨在确定影响沙棘分布的主要环境因素。利用19个生物气候变量和其他地形变量,包括海拔、坡度、坡向和土壤数据,预测了该物种当前和未来的潜在分布。与此同时,我们使用了三种不同的全球气候模型-HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MICROC6和BCC-CSM2-MR,在2050年和2070年,使用四种SSP情景来预测物种的未来分布。曲线下面积为0.926,表明MaxEnt模型对沙棘分布的预测效果非常好。结果表明,最湿月份的降水量是最显著的变量,其次是海拔、最干季降水量、最干月降水量和最湿季降水量。
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Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management
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