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Forecasting Potential Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak on India's GDP Using ARIMA Model 利用ARIMA模型预测COVID-19疫情对印度GDP的潜在影响
Pub Date : 2020-06-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3613724
Imtinungsang Jamir
The outbreak of COVID-19 has brought the world economy at standstill which brings huge challenges to major affected countries. The impact of this disease on economy is highly uncertain putting policymakers in difficult situation to formulate appropriate policy in a short time. India being the second most populous country in the world after China, there is no easy way to contain the virus from spreading. Early anticipation is that, this pandemic will give a major blow to nation’s economy when the country is already experiencing continuous decline in GDP growth for the past few quarters. In order to better understand possible economic outcome, this paper attempts to model and forecast GDP growth rate of India for the next 11 quarters from Q2 of 2020 to Q4 of 2022. Using quarterly GDP data, Box-Jenkins methodology has been applied to forecast short-term GDP in ARIMA (1, 1, 4) model. The prediction made in this paper demonstrates worrying economy for India that even with contained outbreak and several stimulus measures taken by the government, the pandemic could have a significant impact on Indian economy in the short-run with no signs of recovery. The result indicates that India will continue to experience significant decline of GDP growth till the fourth quarter of 2022. However, the forecast made in this study is only indicative rather than definitive.
新冠肺炎疫情使世界经济陷入停滞,给主要疫区国家带来巨大挑战。这种疾病对经济的影响具有高度的不确定性,使决策者难以在短时间内制定适当的政策。印度是仅次于中国的世界第二大人口大国,要遏制病毒的传播并不容易。早期的预测是,在过去几个季度国内生产总值增长持续下降的情况下,这次大流行将对国家经济造成重大打击。为了更好地理解可能的经济结果,本文试图建立模型并预测印度从2020年第二季度到2022年第四季度的未来11个季度的GDP增长率。利用季度GDP数据,Box-Jenkins方法在ARIMA(1,1,4)模型中用于预测短期GDP。本文的预测显示了印度经济的担忧,即使疫情得到控制,政府采取了一些刺激措施,疫情也可能在短期内对印度经济产生重大影响,没有复苏的迹象。结果表明,印度将继续经历GDP增长的显著下降,直到2022年第四季度。然而,这项研究的预测只是指示性的,而不是决定性的。
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引用次数: 2
Blood Type and Blood Donation Behavior 血型与献血行为
Pub Date : 2020-06-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3171957
Shusaku Sasaki, Yoshifumi Funasaki, Hirofumi Kurokawa, Fumio Ohtake
We empirically investigated how voluntary helping behavior is influenced by the number of its potential recipients by using a nationwide survey in Japan (N = 1,333) and examining the relationship between blood type and blood donation behavior. It is generally known in Japan that type O blood can be medically transfused to individuals of all blood groups; therefore, the potential transfusion recipients’ number of the type O blood is the largest among the four blood groups. Our empirical analysis revealed that people with type O blood were more likely to have donated blood in the past than those with the other blood types. This association was stronger in a subsample of individuals who had knowledge relating to the above-mentioned widespread utility of type O blood. In addition, our empirical analysis arrested the concern that potential blood-type differences in altruistic attitudes might explain their differences in blood donation behavior, by confirming that type O blood was not significantly related to other altruistic behaviors (i.e., registration for bone-marrow donation, intention to donate organs, and making monetary donations) or attitudes (i.e., general trust, altruism, reciprocity, and agreeableness). After conducting further analyses, we concluded that the vast number of potential recipients of type O blood causes different patterns of Japanese people’s blood donation behavior across the four blood groups. This study added to the literature the real-world evidence concerning how having many potential recipients affect people’s behavior of providing common goods..
我们在日本进行了一项全国性的调查(N = 1333),并考察了血型和献血行为之间的关系,实证研究了志愿帮助行为是如何受到潜在接受者数量的影响的。在日本,人们普遍认为O型血在医学上可以输注给所有血型的人;因此,在四种血型中,O型血的潜在受输血者人数最多。我们的实证分析显示,O型血的人比其他血型的人更有可能在过去献血。这种关联在对O型血的广泛使用有所了解的个体子样本中更为明显。此外,我们的实证分析表明,O型血与其他利他行为(如骨髓捐献登记、捐献器官的意向和金钱捐赠)或态度(如一般信任、利他主义、互惠主义和亲和性)之间没有显著关系,从而消除了利他态度中潜在的血型差异可能解释其献血行为差异的担忧。经过进一步的分析,我们得出结论,O型血的大量潜在接受者导致了日本人在四种血型之间献血行为的不同模式。这项研究为文献提供了现实世界的证据,证明有许多潜在的接受者如何影响人们提供公共物品的行为。
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引用次数: 1
Getting to "May Be": Probability, Potential Competition, and the Clayton Act 走向“可能”:概率、潜在竞争和克莱顿法案
Pub Date : 2020-06-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3589820
D. Bloomfield
Current merger review law is critically flawed. Courts in Clayton Act Section 7 cases consider the likelihood that a merger will harm competition as a threshold question before considering the size of harm that could ensue. Under current law, to block a merger a judge must find that the deal is likely to substantially harm competition. But this likelihood threshold is neither sound policy nor required by the law. The statute—barring mergers whose effects “may be substantially to lessen competition”—instructs courts to evaluate the likelihood and magnitude of harm that a merger could cause together, rather than separately. Considering likelihood without simultaneously weighing magnitude is to miss half the story. Courts should instead bar mergers whose expected effect, multiplying likelihood of harm by magnitude of harm, is to significantly harm competition.

Applying an expected-effects test will also fix our broken potential competition doctrine. Because it is often impossible to show that a merger between a dominant firm and its potential rival is more likely than not to significantly harm competition, the Clayton Act is a dead letter as applied to such mergers. Discarding the likelihood threshold reveals how harmful many such mergers are on average, and will address the problem of incumbents buying their startup competitors.

To implement this test, I propose a new structural presumption for mergers between incumbents and potential rivals. The test stays within current statutory language and would help to block mergers that pose the greatest threat to future competition.
目前的合并审查法存在严重缺陷。在克莱顿法第7条案件中,法院在考虑可能产生的损害的大小之前,会将合并损害竞争的可能性作为一个门槛问题来考虑。根据现行法律,要阻止合并,法官必须发现该交易可能会严重损害竞争。但这种可能性门槛既不是合理的政策,也不是法律所要求的。该法规禁止合并,其影响“可能实质上减少竞争”,指示法院评估合并可能造成的损害的可能性和程度,而不是单独的。只考虑可能性而不同时衡量量级,只会错过一半的故事。相反,法院应该禁止那些预期影响(将损害的可能性乘以损害的程度)会严重损害竞争的合并。应用预期效应检验也将修复我们支离破碎的潜在竞争原则。因为通常不可能证明一家占主导地位的公司与其潜在竞争对手之间的合并更有可能严重损害竞争,所以《克莱顿法》适用于此类合并是一纸空文。抛弃可能性阈值揭示了许多此类合并的平均危害,并将解决现有企业收购初创竞争对手的问题。为了实施这一检验,我提出了一种新的结构性假设,适用于现有企业与潜在竞争对手之间的合并。该测试符合当前的法定语言,将有助于阻止对未来竞争构成最大威胁的合并。
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引用次数: 0
Élites Empresariales y Desigualdad en Tiempos de Pandemia en América Latina (Business Elites and Inequality in Times of Pandemic in Latin America) 拉丁美洲大流行时期的商业精英和不平等
Pub Date : 2020-06-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3620577
J. Cardenas, F. Robles-Rivera, Diego Martínez-Vallejo
Spanish Abstract: El presente artículo realiza un análisis triple para entender el efecto de la pandemia del COVID-19 sobre la desigualdad económica en América Latina. En primer lugar, se evidencia que las divisas latinoamericanas son de las más depreciadas del mundo, lo que sumerge a las economías de América Latina en una alta inestabilidad económica y dificulta construir políticas macroeconómicas estables de distribución y redistribución. En segundo lugar, se discuten las consecuencias de la alta informalidad en el empleo de las economías de América Latina para mostrar el probable aumento de la desigualdad. Finalmente, se identifican las demandas de las élites empresariales en tiempos de pandemia en cinco países de América Latina y las respuestas del gobierno, lo que evidencia fuertes barreras para implementar reformas fiscales progresivas.

English Abstract: This article performs a triple analysis to understand the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic inequality in Latin America. First, we show the depreciation of Latin American currencies, which generates high economic instability and hampers the developmen t of stable macroeconomic policies for distribution and redistribution. Second, we discuss the consequences of high informality in employment to show the probable increase in inequality. Finally, we identify the preferences of business elites in times of pandemic in five Latin American countries and the government's responses, which evidences strong constraints to implement progressive fiscal reforms.
摘要:本文通过三重分析来了解COVID-19大流行对拉丁美洲经济不平等的影响。首先,很明显,拉丁美洲货币是世界上贬值最严重的货币之一,这使拉丁美洲经济陷入高度的经济不稳定,使建立稳定的分配和再分配宏观经济政策变得困难。其次,本文讨论了拉丁美洲经济体高度非正式性对就业的影响,以表明不平等可能加剧。最后,我们确定了五个拉丁美洲国家在大流行时期的商业精英的需求和政府的反应,显示了实施累进税制改革的强大障碍。本文进行了三重分析,以理解COVID-19大流行对拉丁美洲经济不平等的影响。首先,我们展示了拉丁美洲货币的贬值,这造成了高度的经济不稳定性,并阻碍了稳定的分配和再分配宏观经济政策的发展。其次,我们讨论了就业非正式程度高的后果,以显示不平等可能增加。最后,我们确定了五个拉丁美洲国家在大流行时期商业精英的偏好和政府的反应,这有力地限制了实施累进税制改革。
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引用次数: 0
Pandemic Death Traps 流行病死亡陷阱
Pub Date : 2020-06-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3619586
A. Goel, A. Thakor
Faced with a pandemic, how does the government decide whether to shut down the economy or employ less economically-damaging mitigation measures, and what are the second-best distortions in this decision? We address this question from a positive (how does) rather than a normative (how should) standpoint to explain how differences in second-best distortions can lead to differences in policy responses to a pandemic across different countries, and why there may be a disposition for shutdowns despite these differences. Our analysis develops a two-period production-consumption model in which the economy can be hit with health shocks in the form of pandemics in both periods. The government can choose to do nothing, invest in mitigation to attenuate the effects of a shock, shut down the economy, or choose to invest in mitigation and shut down the economy. Shutting down the economy leads to fewer expected deaths but also creates loss of economic output, with consequences for the economy's ability to invest in mitigation when hit with future health shocks. We derive conditions under which mitigation without a shutdown is the optimal policy choice and conditions under which mitigation with a shutdown is the optimal policy. We then introduce public health experts who advise the government on its policy response. We show that these experts' career concerns can induce a shutdown even when their private information indicates that not shutting down is Pareto superior. The public health experts' career concerns can thus induce a policy "death trap" and lead to the wrong choice. We also discuss why shutdowns may be more damaging in emerging markets than in developed countries.
面对大流行,政府如何决定是关闭经济,还是采取对经济损害较小的缓解措施?在这一决定中,第二好的扭曲是什么?我们从积极的(如何)而不是规范的(如何应该)的角度来解决这个问题,以解释次优扭曲的差异如何导致不同国家对大流行的政策反应的差异,以及为什么尽管存在这些差异,但可能会有关闭的倾向。我们的分析建立了一个两期生产-消费模型,在该模型中,经济在两个时期都可能受到流行病形式的健康冲击。政府可以选择什么都不做,投资缓解冲击的影响,关闭经济,或者选择投资缓解冲击并关闭经济。关闭经济会减少预期死亡人数,但也会造成经济产出的损失,从而影响经济在未来受到健康冲击时投资于缓解措施的能力。导出了不停机的缓解是最优策略选择的条件和停机的缓解是最优策略的条件。然后,我们介绍公共卫生专家,他们就政府的政策反应向政府提供建议。我们表明,即使这些专家的私人信息表明不关闭是帕累托优越的,但他们对职业的关注也会导致关闭。因此,公共卫生专家的职业担忧可能引发政策“死亡陷阱”,并导致错误的选择。我们还讨论了为什么关闭在新兴市场可能比在发达国家更具破坏性。
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引用次数: 4
Does EMR Adoption by Nursing Homes Decrease Hospitalization Costs? 疗养院采用电子病历能降低住院费用吗?
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3725715
Atiye Cansu Erol, L. Hitt, Prasanna Tambe
Electronic Medical Records (EMR) have the potential to reduce medical expenditures by increasing communication between healthcare providers and avoiding unnecessary tests and medical errors. Using a three-year panel of Medicaid spending (hospitalization costs) for long-term care patients in nursing homes, we analyze the effect of nursing home EMR adoption on out-of-home healthcare expenditures for their residents. We find a strong and persistent reduction of hospitalization costs when hospital and nursing homes both adopt EMR, a savings of about 13% of Medicaid expenditure on average for those patients (and as much as 35% for the subset of hospitals that are part of a hospital system). This is above the 3.5%-14% direct effect of nursing home adoption alone. Given the networked nature of healthcare delivery for long-term care patients or patients with chronic conditions, our findings underscore the importance of looking outside the adopting institution when accounting for health IT (HIT) value.
电子医疗记录(EMR)通过增加医疗保健提供者之间的沟通和避免不必要的检查和医疗错误,有可能减少医疗支出。使用三年的医疗补助支出面板(住院费用)的长期护理患者在养老院,我们分析疗养院电子病历采用对其居民的家庭外医疗保健支出的影响。我们发现,当医院和疗养院都采用电子病历时,住院费用会持续大幅下降,这些患者平均节省约13%的医疗补助支出(对于医院系统的一部分医院,这一比例高达35%)。这比单独在养老院收养的直接影响高出3.5%-14%。考虑到长期护理患者或慢性病患者的医疗保健服务的网络性质,我们的研究结果强调了在考虑医疗IT (HIT)价值时,在采用机构之外寻找的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The Rather Limited Role of Mental Ill Health in Driving Work Beyond 50 精神疾病对50岁以后继续工作的影响相当有限
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3649437
V. Vandenberghe
This paper's aim is to contribute to the literature on elderly employment barriers by exploring the role of mental health relative to that of physical health, and the complementarity between the two. The paper uses European SHARE data. It considers the distinction between the extensive and the intensive margin of work (employment rate and hours) as well as wages/productivity. Results point at the limited role of mental health in determining employment (extensive margin) and hours (the extensive margin) in comparison to physical health. Also, men's employment or hours respond more to health problems, singularly mental ones. Another result is that ill health (be it physical or mental) has no impact on wages. Finally, results suggest moderate complementarity between mental health and physical ill health in degrading people's capacity to stay in paid employment.
本文的目的是通过探讨心理健康相对于身体健康的作用,以及两者之间的互补性,为老年人就业障碍的文献做出贡献。本文使用欧洲的SHARE数据。它考虑了广泛和密集工作边际(就业率和工时)以及工资/生产率之间的区别。结果表明,与身体健康相比,心理健康在决定就业(大范围)和工作时间(大范围)方面的作用有限。此外,男性的就业或工作时间更多地反映了健康问题,尤其是精神问题。另一个结果是不健康(无论是身体上的还是精神上的)对工资没有影响。最后,研究结果表明,心理健康和身体健康不良在降低人们从事有偿就业的能力方面存在适度的互补性。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 Pandemic and Stock Market Contagion: A Wavelet-Copula GARCH Approach COVID-19大流行与股市传染:小波联结GARCH方法
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3631067
H. Alqaralleh, A. Canepa, Emilio Zanetti Chini
In this study, we examine the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock market contagion. Empirical analysis is conducted on six major stock markets using a wavelet-copula GARCH approach to account for both the time and the frequency aspects of stock market correlation. We find strong evidence of contagion in the stock markets under consideration during the COVID-19 pandemic..
在本研究中,我们检验了COVID-19大流行对股市传染的影响。本文采用小波耦合GARCH方法对六大股票市场进行了实证分析,同时考虑了股市相关性的时间和频率方面。我们发现,在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,正在考虑的股票市场存在传染的有力证据。
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引用次数: 3
C-19: Redefining the State of Welfare? C-19:重新定义福利国家?
Pub Date : 2020-05-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3851989
S. Davies
Major crises, such as wars and pandemics, have often been the occasion for radical reconstruction of the welfare system. It is very likely that the COVID-19 pandemic will also do this because it will bring discontent with the existing system to a head and reveal ts weaknesses, particularly as regards its central element, Universal Credit. Major public debate has already begun. In that conversation, one idea that is bound to have a lot of support and has a "head start" is that of a Guaranteed Minimum Income, also known as Universal Basic Income. However, there are strong doubts or objections to that idea, from all parts of the spectrum, and several rival ideas. The debate cannot be a purely technical one because it touches upon fundamental questions, which have also been raised by the impact of the coronavirus: the place of the home and household, the importance and nature of work, and the role of civil society and voluntary action.
战争和流行病等重大危机往往是彻底重建福利制度的契机。COVID-19大流行很可能也会这样做,因为它将使人们对现有体系的不满达到顶点,并暴露出其弱点,特别是在其核心要素——通用信贷方面。重大的公开辩论已经开始。在这场对话中,有一个想法肯定会得到很多人的支持,并且有一个“领先优势”,那就是最低保障收入,也被称为普遍基本收入。然而,对这一观点存在强烈的怀疑或反对,来自各个方面,以及一些对立的观点。这场辩论不能纯粹是技术性的,因为它涉及到一些基本问题,这些问题也因冠状病毒的影响而被提出:家庭和家庭的位置、工作的重要性和性质,以及民间社会和自愿行动的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Causality and Dependence of COVID-19 Variables from Our World in Data 数据世界中COVID-19变量的因果关系和依赖性
Pub Date : 2020-05-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3610756
Dr. Gour Gobinda Goswami, M. Nurunnabi, K. H. H. Rahman, Khaled Md. Shafiullah
The existing literature on COVID-19 has been dominated by medical sciences as well as epidemiological studies related to different public health reasons or dise
现有的关于COVID-19的文献以医学和与不同公共卫生原因或疾病相关的流行病学研究为主
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引用次数: 0
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Insurance & Financing in Health Economics eJournal
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