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The Individual Welfare Costs of Stay at Home Policies 居家政策的个人福利成本
Pub Date : 2020-05-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3641781
O. Andersson, Pol Campos-Mercade, F. Carlsson, Florian H. Schneider, E. Wengström
This paper reports the results of a choice experiment designed to estimate the private welfare costs of stay-at-home policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study is conducted on a large and representative sample of the Swedish population. The results suggest that the welfare cost of a one-month stay-at-home policy, restricting non-working hours away from home, amounts to 9.1 percent of Sweden's monthly GDP. The cost can be interpreted as 29,600 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), which roughly corresponds to between 3,700 and 8,000 COVID-19 fatalities. Moreover, we find that stricter and longer lockdowns are disproportionately more costly than more lenient ones. This result indicates that strict stay-at-home policies are likely to be cost-effective only if they slow the spread of the disease much more than more lenient ones.
本文报告了一项选择实验的结果,该实验旨在估计COVID-19大流行期间居家政策的私人福利成本。这项研究是在瑞典人口中有代表性的大量样本中进行的。研究结果表明,一个月的居家政策(限制非工作时间离家)的福利成本相当于瑞典每月GDP的9.1%。成本可以解释为29,600个质量调整生命年(QALYs),大致相当于3,700至8,000例COVID-19死亡。此外,我们发现,更严格、更长期的封锁比更宽松的封锁代价高得多。这一结果表明,严格的居家政策只有在比宽松政策更能减缓疾病传播的情况下,才可能具有成本效益。
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引用次数: 10
Maternal Child Care: Some Macroeconomic Implications in the Time of COVID-19 母婴保健:COVID-19时期的一些宏观经济影响
Pub Date : 2020-05-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3604550
Mukesh Eswaran
In this paper, I make an attempt to understand the efficacy of some of the current fiscal stimuli being implemented to deal with the ongoing economic disaster precipitated by COVID-19. The focus is on pecuniary externalities working through the demand side, for they seem crucial for recovery. I use a well-known model of the Big Push of the economic development literature for this purpose because it lays bare the essential multiplier process involved. This enables an examination of the role that traditional maternal child care plays in the efficacy of the fiscal policies intended to support the economy and to facilitate recovery. This works through the maternal contribution to human capital during the childhood of the current labor force. Based on the reasoning developed here in the context of COVID-19, I argue for universal and subsidized child care under normal times in view of its long-term macroeconomic consequences. This argument is independent of whether the subsidy elicits greater maternal labor supply.
在本文中,我试图了解目前为应对COVID-19引发的持续经济灾难而实施的一些财政刺激措施的有效性。重点在于通过需求侧发挥作用的货币外部性,因为它们似乎对复苏至关重要。为此,我使用了经济发展文献中一个著名的“大推动”模型,因为它揭示了其中涉及的基本乘数过程。这样就可以审查传统的妇幼保健在旨在支持经济和促进复苏的财政政策的效力方面所起的作用。这是通过在当前劳动力的童年时期母亲对人力资本的贡献来实现的。基于本文在2019冠状病毒病背景下提出的推理,鉴于其长期宏观经济后果,我主张在正常时期普及和补贴儿童保育。这一论点与补贴是否会增加产妇劳动力供给无关。
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引用次数: 0
Abstracts for the Digital conference 'Sustainable Development Goals in the Era of COVID-19: The Role of Science, Technology and Innovation' “2019冠状病毒病时代的可持续发展目标:科学、技术和创新的作用”数字会议摘要
Pub Date : 2020-05-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3621647
Evgeniya A. Starikova
The participation of business in partnership initiatives for sustainable development has intensified significantly since the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. By 2014, there were about 1,000 voluntary commitments and multilateral partnerships in various fields of activity involving partners from the corporate sector , among which the best-known initiatives are “Sustainable Energy for All” (SE4All), “Every Woman, Every Child” (Every Woman Every Child - EWEC), Business Fights Poverty, Partnerships for Small Island Developing States, and others.

In our opinion, it seems appropriate to propose the classification of existing partnership models in the interests of achieving the SDGs with the participation of representatives of the corporate sector.
自1992年在里约热内卢举行的地球问题首脑会议以来,商界参与促进可持续发展的伙伴关系倡议已大大加强。到2014年,在涉及企业部门合作伙伴的各种活动领域中,约有1000项自愿承诺和多边伙伴关系,其中最著名的倡议是“人人享有可持续能源”(SE4All)、“每个妇女,每个儿童”(每个妇女,每个儿童- EWEC)、企业消除贫困、小岛屿发展中国家伙伴关系等。我们认为,为了实现可持续发展目标,在企业部门代表的参与下,对现有伙伴关系模式进行分类似乎是合适的。
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引用次数: 0
Are Strict Social Distancing Policies Necessary for Economic Recovery after a Pandemic? A Re-Analysis of the 1918 Flu Pandemic 大流行后经济复苏需要严格的社会距离政策吗?1918年流感大流行的再分析
Pub Date : 2020-05-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3601901
J. Dul, Marno Verbeek
Pandemics harm the economy Governments use social distancing and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to tackle the pandemic Recent data from the 1918
流行病危害经济各国政府利用社交距离和其他非药物干预措施(NPI)来应对流行病
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引用次数: 2
Health Status and Repeated Multiple Treatments in Long-Term Care: A Panel Structural Var Analysis 长期护理患者的健康状况与重复多重治疗:面板结构方差分析
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3589992
S. Sugawara, T. Ishihara
This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between health status and expenditures on repeated multiple treatments, which are typical in long-term care. To facilitate causal inferences where complex dynamic interdependencies exist between many variables, we adopt a structural vector autoregression model for panel data of individuals. The model is estimated using a Bayesian shrinkage method which can simultaneously employ estimation and model selection for the lag length. Then, we employ a counterfactual analysis using impulse response functions. We analyze monthly claims data in the context of long-term care in Japan, where social insurance covers many formal services for elderly care at home. Our empirical analysis reveals several patterns of dependency between service utilization and their effects. In particular, we found that day care and outpatient rehabilitation share similar utilization patterns and also result in similar levels of improvement in health status, which implies that appropriate targeting can improve the effectiveness of service provision.
本研究分析长期照护中常见的重复多次治疗费用与健康状况之间的动态关系。为了便于在许多变量之间存在复杂动态相互依赖关系的情况下进行因果推断,我们对个体面板数据采用结构向量自回归模型。采用贝叶斯收缩法对模型进行估计,该方法可以同时对滞后长度进行估计和模型选择。然后,我们使用脉冲响应函数进行反事实分析。我们在日本长期护理的背景下分析每月索赔数据,其中社会保险涵盖了许多家庭老年人护理的正式服务。我们的实证分析揭示了服务利用及其影响之间的几种依赖模式。特别是,我们发现日托和门诊康复有相似的利用模式,也导致相似水平的健康状况改善,这意味着适当的目标可以提高服务提供的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Reopening Under COVID-19: What to Watch For 在COVID-19下重新开放:需要注意什么
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3594957
J. Harris
We critically analyze the currently available status indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic so that state governors will have the guideposts necessary to decide whether to further loosen or instead retighten controls on social and economic activity. Overreliance on aggregate, state-level data in Wisconsin, we find, confounds the effects of the spring primary elections and the outbreak among meat packers. Relaxed testing standards in Los Angeles may have upwardly biased the observed trend in new infection rates. Reanalysis of New Jersey data, based upon the date an ultimately fatal case first became ill rather than the date of death, reveals that deaths have already peaked in that state. Evidence from Cook County, Illinois shows that trends in the percentage of positive tests can be wholly misleading. Trends on emergency department visits for influenza-like illness, advocated by the White House Guidelines, are unlikely to be informative. Data on hospital census counts in Orange County, California suggest that healthcare system-based indicators are likely to be more reliable and informative. An analysis of cumulative infections in San Antonio, Texas, shows how mathematical models intended to guide decisions on relaxation of social distancing are severely limited by untested assumptions. Universal coronavirus testing may not on its own solve difficult problems of data interpretation and causal inference.
我们批判性地分析当前可用的COVID-19疫情状况指标,以便州长掌握必要的路标,以决定是否进一步放松或重新收紧对社会和经济活动的控制。我们发现,对威斯康星州州级数据的过度依赖,混淆了春季初选和肉类加工商爆发疫情的影响。洛杉矶放宽的检测标准可能使观察到的新感染率趋势有所上升。根据最终致命病例首次发病的日期而不是死亡日期对新泽西州数据进行的重新分析显示,该州的死亡人数已经达到高峰。来自伊利诺伊州库克县的证据表明,阳性检测百分比的趋势可能完全具有误导性。白宫指南所倡导的流感样疾病急诊就诊趋势不太可能提供信息。加州奥兰治县的医院人口普查数据表明,基于医疗保健系统的指标可能更可靠,信息更丰富。对德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥市累积感染的分析表明,旨在指导放松社交距离决策的数学模型受到未经检验的假设的严重限制。普遍的冠状病毒检测本身可能无法解决数据解释和因果推理的难题。
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引用次数: 24
What Does Academic Research Say about Short-Selling Bans? 关于卖空禁令,学术研究怎么说?
Pub Date : 2020-04-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3775704
Stefano Alderighi, Pedro Gurrola-Perez
As a reaction to higher market volatility due to the global COVID-19 pandemic, in March 2020 some financial regulators imposed short-selling bans on equity markets. Their argument is that short-selling exacerbates downward price movements, thus being responsible for heightened volatility and reduced market confidence. This paper reviews the academic literature on short-selling and short-selling bans, comparing the arguments against banning short-selling with the arguments in favour. We find that the evidence almost unanimously points towards short-selling bans being disruptive for the orderly functioning of markets, as they are found to reduce liquidity, increase price inefficiency and hamper price discovery. In addition, short-selling bans are found to have negative spillover effects on other markets, for example option markets. According to the literature, during periods of price decline and heightened volatility, short-sellers do not behave differently from any other traders, and contribute less to price declines than regular ‘long’ sellers. As research has shown that short-selling bans are more deleterious to markets characterized by a relatively high amount of small stocks, low levels of fragmentation, and fewer alternatives to short-selling, emerging markets should be particularly wary of bans on short-selling.
2020年3月,为应对全球COVID-19大流行导致的市场波动加剧,一些金融监管机构对股票市场实施了卖空禁令。他们的论点是,卖空加剧了价格的下行走势,从而导致波动性加剧、市场信心下降。本文回顾了有关卖空和卖空禁令的学术文献,比较了反对卖空和赞成卖空的观点。我们发现,几乎一致的证据表明,卖空禁令对市场的有序运作具有破坏性,因为它们被发现会降低流动性,增加价格效率低下,并阻碍价格发现。此外,卖空禁令还会对其他市场(如期权市场)产生负面溢出效应。根据文献,在价格下跌和波动性加剧的时期,卖空者的行为与其他交易者没有什么不同,对价格下跌的贡献小于常规的“多头”卖家。研究表明,卖空禁令对小型股票数量相对较多、分散程度较低、卖空选择较少的市场更为有害,新兴市场应特别警惕卖空禁令。
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引用次数: 0
Visualizing Vulnerability and Capturing the Pandemic's Human Toll 可视化脆弱性,捕捉疫情造成的人员伤亡
Pub Date : 2020-04-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3888403
R. Wilson, M. Zellner, Ahoura Zandiatashbar
COVID-19 has created a crisis with little precedent. Illinoisans have lost family members. People have died in hospitals alone. But the human toll of the pandemic can be measured in more than lives lost. There have been other health effects, such as delayed surgery and lack of access to primary and behavioral healthcare. Many have lost jobs, which means lost health insurance, lost wages, and food insecurity. In Illinois, a half million people filed for unemployment in five weeks. For most people, the ability to shelter, clothe, feed, and care for ourselves and our families comes through productive work. Staying at home has created the potential for increased incidents of partner and child abuse. Sheltering in place has led to feelings of hopelessness and isolation. It has frayed emotions and relationships. The existential threat posed by COVID-19 is unlike anything most Americans have experienced—except, perhaps, those who lived through the Great Depression. The Institute of Government and Public Affairs (IGPA) launched a series of Pandemic Stress Indicators to measure and document the social and economic toll of the pandemic. For the first Pandemic Stress Indicator, IGPA collaborated with the University of Illinois Chicago’s Urban Data Visualization Lab to develop maps that visualize and identify compounding vulnerabilities, both to COVID-19 and to the socio-economic impact of the pandemic. Many Illinoisans face compounding vulnerabilities: to the virus itself and to the economic repercussions. Some came into the pandemic with hypertension, cardiovascular, and other health conditions that increase the risk for being a severe patient. Others struggled financially long before the pandemic. Persons of color and those living in poverty number among those hardest hit by the pandemic. Developing a wholistic understanding of the pandemic’s human toll and visualizing vulnerabilities of persons and communities is crucial to minimizing the pandemic’s total harm, while helping fragile persons and populations to emerge as unscathed as possible.
COVID-19造成了一场史无前例的危机。伊利诺斯州人失去了家人。仅在医院就有人死亡。但是,大流行造成的人员伤亡不仅仅是生命损失。还有其他健康影响,如延迟手术和缺乏获得初级和行为保健的机会。许多人失去了工作,这意味着失去了医疗保险、工资和粮食不安全。在伊利诺伊州,50万人在五周内申请失业。对大多数人来说,住所、衣服、食物、照顾自己和家人的能力来自于富有成效的工作。呆在家里可能会增加虐待伴侣和儿童的事件。就地避难导致了绝望和孤立的感觉。它磨损了情感和人际关系。COVID-19带来的生存威胁不同于大多数美国人经历过的任何事情——也许除了那些经历过大萧条的人。政府和公共事务研究所(IGPA)推出了一系列大流行病压力指标,以衡量和记录大流行病造成的社会和经济损失。对于第一个大流行压力指标,IGPA与伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校的城市数据可视化实验室合作,开发了可视化和识别复合脆弱性的地图,包括COVID-19和大流行的社会经济影响。许多伊利诺伊州人面临着更复杂的脆弱性:病毒本身和经济影响。有些人在大流行时患有高血压、心血管疾病和其他健康状况,增加了成为重症患者的风险。其他国家在疫情爆发前很久就陷入了财务困境。有色人种和贫困人口是受疫情影响最严重的群体。全面了解大流行给人类造成的损失,直观地认识个人和社区的脆弱性,对于最大限度地减少大流行的总体危害,同时帮助脆弱的个人和群体尽可能毫发无损,至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Talk about the Coronavirus Pandemic: Initial Evidence from Corporate Disclosures 谈谈冠状病毒大流行:来自企业披露的初步证据
Pub Date : 2020-04-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3585951
Victor X. Wang, Betty (Bin) Xing
The novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has become the world’s center of attention in 2020. In this paper, we examine firm disclosures of COVID-19 during the first quarter of 2020, a time when firms face tremendous uncertainty and have little guidance on what and how to disclose. We compare Coronavirus-related disclosures in SEC filings and earnings conference calls with the timeline of the spread of the disease and with information gathering and disseminating activities in Google searches and news articles. We find that initial corporate disclosures are driven by information demand, and firm managers are proactive in providing information to investors. Our topic modelling analysis shows that although firms recognize the massive impact of the pandemic on their operations, their disclosures in SEC filings are general and lack specifics. Finally, we find that analysts are proactive in raising questions regarding the impact of COVID-19 during the Q&A session of the conference calls, and that firm managers are quick to provide necessary disclosures in the presentation session as the pandemic develops.
2020年,新型冠状病毒病(COVID-19)成为全球关注的焦点。在本文中,我们研究了2020年第一季度企业对COVID-19的披露情况,这一时期企业面临巨大的不确定性,在披露什么和如何披露方面几乎没有指导。我们将SEC文件和收益电话会议中与冠状病毒相关的披露与疾病传播的时间表以及谷歌搜索和新闻文章中的信息收集和传播活动进行了比较。我们发现,公司初始披露受信息需求驱动,公司管理者主动向投资者提供信息。我们的主题建模分析表明,尽管企业认识到疫情对其业务的巨大影响,但它们在美国证券交易委员会(SEC)文件中的披露是笼统的,缺乏细节。最后,我们发现,在电话会议的问答环节,分析师积极主动地提出有关COVID-19影响的问题,随着疫情的发展,公司经理们在演示环节迅速提供必要的信息。
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引用次数: 12
Stagpression: The Economic and Financial Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic 停滞:COVID-19大流行的经济和金融影响
Pub Date : 2020-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3593144
Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada, Evangelos Koutronas, Minsoo Lee
This paper formulates an analytical framework to understand the spatiotemporal patterns of epidemic disease occurrence, its relevance, and implications to financial markets activity. The paper suggests a paradigm shift: a new multi-dimensional geometric approach to capture all symmetrical and asymmetrical strategic graphical movement. Furthermore, it introduces the concept of stagpression, a new economic phenomenon to explain the uncharted territory the world economies and financial markets are getting into. The Massive Pandemic Contagious Diseases Damage on Stock Markets Simulator (φ-Simulator) to evaluate the determinants of capital markets behavior in the presence of an infectious disease outbreak. The model investigates the impact of Covid-19 on the performance of ten stock markets, including S&P 500, TWSE, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Nikkei 225, DAX, Hang Seng, U.K.-FTSE, KRX, SGX, and Malaysia-FTSE.
本文制定了一个分析框架,以了解流行病发生的时空模式,其相关性以及对金融市场活动的影响。本文提出了一种范式转变:一种新的多维几何方法来捕捉所有对称和不对称的战略图形运动。此外,它还引入了滞胀的概念,这是一种新的经济现象,用来解释世界经济和金融市场正在进入的未知领域。大规模流行病对股票市场的损害模拟器(φ-模拟器),以评估存在传染病爆发时资本市场行为的决定因素。该模型调查了新冠肺炎对10个股票市场表现的影响,包括标准普尔500指数、台湾证交所、上海证券交易所、日经225指数、DAX指数、恒生指数、英国富时指数、韩国证券交易所、新加坡证券交易所和马来西亚富时指数。
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引用次数: 66
期刊
Insurance & Financing in Health Economics eJournal
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