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Pengaruh Fluktuasi Harga Tandan Buah Segar (TBS) terhadap Efek Kesejahteraan Petani Kelapa Sawit Di Indonesia 新水果价格波动对印尼棕榈油农民福利的影响
Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.11594/jesi.02.03.05
Nisa Nurjannah Sukowati Sukowati
Fluktuasi harga TBS yang terjadi dari tahun ke tahun merupakan kondisi uncertainty atau risiko yang harus dihadapi petani sawit. Petani sawit yang diasumsikan risk averse akan selalu berusaha untuk menghindari risiko tersebut. Dari Lucas model diperoleh bahwa welfare cost yang dihasilkan pada fluktuasi harga produsen TBS sangat kecil, yaitu dibawah 1 persen. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa dengan mengurangi fluktuasi harga TBS akan dapat meningkatkan kurang dari 1 persen pendapatan petani dari penjualan TBS atau dengan kata lain, efek kesejahteraan yang dihasilkan dari mengurangi fluktuasi harga TBS sangat kecil. Dengan kata lain, fluktuasi harga TBS seolah bukan menjadi ancaman besar bagi petani sawit Indonesia.  
TBS价格年复一年的波动是不确定的条件,也是油棕不得不面对的风险。认为处于危险境地的油户农民总是试图避免这样的风险。从卢卡斯模型中可以看出,TBS生产商的价格波动带来的福利成本是非常小的,不到1%。这表明,通过减少TBS价格波动,将能够从TBS销售中增加不到1%的农民收入,换句话说,减少TBS价格波动所产生的福利效应非常小。换句话说,TBS价格的波动对印尼农民来说似乎不是一个大威胁。
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引用次数: 1
Apakah Dana Desa dan Fungsi Belanja APBD Mampu Mengatasi Kemiski-nan di Indonesia? APBD的村基金和消费职能能否解决印尼的贫困问题?
Pub Date : 2022-09-16 DOI: 10.11594/jesi.02.02.12
P. Sihombing, Dwi Muslianti, Yunita
Kemiskinan masih menjadi salah satu masalah dalam pembangunan ekonomi. Berbagai cara telah ditempuh oleh pemerintah untuk mengurangi persentase kemiskinan, di antaranya melalui pengeluaran belanja daerah dan dana desa. Penelitian ini bertujuan melihat bagaimana pengaruh dana desa dan fungsi belanja APBD terhadap persentase kemiskinan di Indonesia.  Adapun pendekatan belanja APBD menggunakan variabel fungsi ekonomi, fungsi pendidikan, fungsi perlindungan sosial, fungsi perumahan dan fasilitas umum. Data bersumber dari Kementerian Keuangan dan Badan Pusat Statistik periode 2018-2021. Adapun metode statistik yang digunakan yaitu regresi dengan data panel. Berdasarkan pengujian model panel, model efek tetap (fixed effect) merupakan model yang terbaik. Secara simultan seluruh variabel berpengaruh terhadap kemiskinan. Secara parsial variabel Fungsi Pendidikan, Fungsi Perlindungan Sosial, Fungsi Perumahan dan Fasilitas Umum dan Dana Desa berpengaruh signifikan negatif terhadap persantese kemiskinan. Di sisi lain belum cukup bukti menyatakan Fungsi Ekonomi berpengaruh terhadap persantese kemiskinan. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, diperlukan kebijakan komprehensif terkait ekonomi makro-sosial agar tingkat kemiskinan Indonesia terus berkurang misalnya dengan memberikan bantuan yang bersifat produktif pada masyarakat.
贫困仍然是经济发展中的一个问题。政府正在采取各种方法来减少贫困人口,其中包括通过地方支出和农村资金。本研究旨在探讨APBD农村资金和支出职能如何影响印尼贫困率。至于APBD采购方法,使用各种经济功能、教育功能、社会保护功能、住房和公共设施功能。源数据来自财政部和中央统计局,时间为2016 -2021年。至于用于面板数据回归的统计方法。根据面板模型测试,固定效果模型是最好的模型。所有变量同时影响贫困。部分的教育功能、社会保护功能、住房和公共设施功能和农村资金对贫困制度产生了负面影响。另一方面,没有足够的证据表明经济功能影响了贫困的永动机。根据这项研究的结果,需要一项与宏观经济相关的全面经济政策,即通过向人民提供有生产力的援助,继续降低印度尼西亚的贫困率。
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引用次数: 1
Pengaruh Investasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Kemiskinan Provinsi Jawa Barat 2011-2021 投资与经济增长对西爪哇省贫困的影响
Pub Date : 2022-09-16 DOI: 10.11594/jesi.02.02.10
R. Hidayati, Masruri Muchtar, P. Sihombing
West Java Province is a province in Indonesia that always shows the realization of foreign and domestic investments that are superior to other provinces in Indonesia. On the other hand, poverty in West Java Province still becomes a main problem as indicated by the high number of people living in poverty. This study aims to determine the effect of investment and economic growth on poverty in West Java Province in 2011-2021. The results show that the high realization of investment has no significant effect on poverty in West Java. However, the high economic growth in West Java has a significant and negative effect on poverty in the area. The government can take the right policies to continue to increase economic growth in West Java and take other steps apart from investing both foreign and domestic investments.
西爪哇省是印尼一个在国内外投资实现方面始终领先于印尼其他省份的省份。另一方面,西爪哇省的贫困仍然是一个主要问题,生活在贫困中的人数众多表明了这一点。本研究旨在确定2011-2021年西爪哇省投资和经济增长对贫困的影响。结果表明,投资的高变现对西爪哇省的贫困没有显著影响。然而,西爪哇的高经济增长对该地区的贫困产生了重大的负面影响。政府可以采取正确的政策,继续提高西爪哇的经济增长,并采取其他措施,除了投资国外和国内投资。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Internal Control on Cash Receiving (Case Study at the Pratama Tiara Bunda Clinic) 现金收付的内部控制分析(以普拉塔玛蒂亚拉本达诊所为例)
Pub Date : 2022-09-16 DOI: 10.11594/jesi.02.02.11
E. Ningrum, Nita Komala Dewi, Matdio Siahaan, Dea
This study aims to make Tiara Bunda Clinic able to understand and evaluate internal control in the purchasing system that has been implemented. This type of research is a case study at the Pratama Tiara Bunda Clinic, with data collection techniques used are interviews and documentation. The results of this study can be concluded that the internal control system for cash receipts at Tiara Bunda Clinic Pratama for the risk assessment component and control activities are not adequate with COSO 2013 this is evident from the practice implemented by Tiara Bunda Clinic Pratama. This difference is because there have not been any changes at all related to regulations or the operating environment relating to cash receipts and physical control of cash receipts assets at the clinic every time a deposit is made to the clinic owner, it is always recalculated, for computer programs related to cash receipts assets there data in non-computerized cash receipts, only patient data is computerized. Meanwhile, the components of internal control, information, and communication, as well as monitoring are by the 2013 COSO theory, This can be proven from the practice that has been carried out by Tiara Bunda Clinic.
本研究旨在使蒂亚拉本达诊所能够了解和评价已实施的采购系统的内部控制。这种类型的研究是在普拉塔玛蒂亚拉本达诊所的一个案例研究,使用的数据收集技术是访谈和文件。本研究的结果可以得出结论,Tiara Bunda诊所的现金收入内部控制系统在风险评估部分和控制活动方面与COSO 2013不充分,这从Tiara Bunda诊所实施的实践中可以看出。这种差异是因为与现金收入和诊所现金收入资产的物理控制相关的法规或操作环境根本没有任何变化每次向诊所所有者进行存款时,它总是被重新计算,对于与现金收入资产相关的计算机程序在非计算机化的现金收入中有数据,只有患者数据是计算机化的。同时,内部控制、信息、沟通和监控的组成部分采用2013 COSO理论,这可以从Tiara Bunda诊所开展的实践中得到证明。
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引用次数: 0
Mengukur Output Gap Ekonomi Maluku Utara (Pendekatan Hodrick-Prescott Filter)
Pub Date : 2022-08-31 DOI: 10.11594/jesi.02.02.09
Jufri Jacob, Zulkifly Waibot
Development anywhere will always be faced with fluctuating conditions or the ups and downs of economic growth. In the discourse "New Neo-Classical Synthesis" which by (Hubbard, 2014; Gordon, 2014; Mitchell, 2019 and Insukindro, 2020), sees economic fluctuations that can lead to recession and expansion. How to measure the output gap or economic fluctuation that occurred in North Maluku Province and its relationship with economic indicators. Estimation of economic fluctuations uses the Hodrick-Prescott Filter method, which is an econometric method to describe the frequency of time series data becoming trends in an economic cycle. The results showed that North Maluku's economic fluctuations were actually dominated by economic recessions rather than expansion. In the first quarter of 2020, if you use the standard macroeconomic approach, there will still be economic expansion fluctuations (3.06), but the New Neo-Classical Synthesis method since the first quarter has experienced an economic recession (-1.42). Meanwhile, the movement patterns are unidirectional or procyclic, there are also opposites or contersiclic.
任何地方的发展都将面临波动的条件或经济增长的起伏。在哈伯德(Hubbard, 2014;戈登,2014;Mitchell(2019)和Insukindro(2020)认为,经济波动可能导致衰退和扩张。如何衡量北马鲁古省发生的产出缺口或经济波动及其与经济指标的关系经济波动的估计使用Hodrick-Prescott Filter方法,这是一种计量经济学方法,用于描述时间序列数据在经济周期中成为趋势的频率。结果表明,北马鲁古的经济波动实际上是以经济衰退而不是扩张为主导的。在2020年第一季度,如果使用标准宏观经济方法,仍然会出现经济扩张波动(3.06),但新新古典综合方法由于第一季度经历了经济衰退(-1.42)。同时,其运动模式为单向或顺旋运动,也有相反或构造运动。
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引用次数: 0
Masalah Kesehatan Pekerja di Indonesia Terhadap Loss Productivity 印尼工人健康问题导致生产失衡
Pub Date : 2022-08-29 DOI: 10.11594/jesi.02.02.07
Johannes Hasibuan
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kesehatan yang buruk terhadap hilangnya waktu produktif pekerja di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) tahun 2007 dan 2014. Sampel adalah pekerja usia 15 tahun ke atas dengan kegiatan utama individu adalah bekerja. Ukuran kesehatan pekerja pada kuesioner IFLS adalah pertanyaan apakah responden memiliki riwayat penyakit kronis Metode estimasi fixed effect  digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi permasalahan kesehatan terhadap loss productivity.. Hasil estimasi memberikan hasil bahwa gangguan pencernaan memberikan efek terbesar terhadap terganggunya aktivitas bekerja sebesar 1,7 hari dan penyakit stroke memberikan efek tertinggi terhadap terganggunya seluruh total aktivitas sebesar 0,8 hari. Kesimpulan Human capital adalah faktor dari produktivitas ekonomi, oleh karena itu mencegah penyakit dan menjaga kesehatan pekerja perlu dilakukan terutama penyakit kronis.
本研究旨在分析健康状况不佳对印尼工人失去工作时间的影响。这项研究采用了印度尼西亚家庭调查(IFLS)数据,2007年和2014年。样本是15岁以上的工作人员,主要个人活动是工作。IFLS问卷调查对工人健康的衡量标准是一个问题,受访者是否有慢性疾病史,固定效应估计方法被用来确定失去生产的健康问题。据估计,消化不良对工作时间的限制有1.7天,中风是影响最大的,对整体活动的影响为0.8天。人类资本的结论是经济生产力的一个因素,因此预防疾病和保持工人健康主要是慢性疾病。
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引用次数: 0
Pengaruh Financial Distress terhadap Earnings Management (Studi Empiris pada Perusahaan Sektor Pertambangan yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek In-donesia Periode 2014-2018) 金融压力对耳环管理的影响(2014-2018年上市矿业公司的实证研究)
Pub Date : 2022-08-29 DOI: 10.11594/jesi.02.02.06
A. Suryana, Muhammad Risyan Rizqi Khairi
Reflecting on the biggest accounting scandals in the world, such as the case of Bernie Medoff, Enron, Lehman Brother, Worldcom, and others; corporate stakeholders are powerless against the collapse of a company or economy. There is a practice of Earnings Management, where accounting practices are misused for the benefit of company management. Then, the emergence and bankruptcy of companies continued to alternate based on the number of bankruptcy cases in Indonesia. And the mining sector became an advanced industry in the era of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, but experienced a setback in the era of Joko Widodo. Many small companies went bankrupt and were acquired by large companies. Financial Distress pressure can make management to do Earnings Management based on certain motives (Diri, 2018). The study was conducted to find the relationship between Financial Distress through the Grover model and Earnings Management through the Modified Jones model. The results show that there is a relationship between Financial Distress and Earnings Management, the influence or strength of the explanation of Financial Distress on Earnings Management is at a strong level.
反思世界上最大的会计丑闻,如伯尼·麦道夫案、安然案、雷曼兄弟案、世通案等;公司利益相关者对公司或经济的崩溃无能为力。有盈余管理的做法,会计实务被滥用为公司管理层的利益。随后,根据印尼破产案件的数量,公司的出现和破产继续交替进行。矿业在苏西洛·班邦·尤多约诺时代成为先进产业,但在佐科·维多多时代遭遇挫折。许多小公司破产,被大公司收购。财务困境压力可以使管理层基于某些动机进行盈余管理(Diri, 2018)。本研究通过Grover模型找出财务困境与修正的Jones模型找出盈余管理之间的关系。结果表明,财务困境与盈余管理之间存在一定的关系,财务困境对盈余管理解释的影响或强度处于较强的水平。
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引用次数: 0
Perbandingan Performa ETS dan ARIMA dalam Pemodelan Harga CPO
Pub Date : 2022-08-29 DOI: 10.11594/jesi.02.02.08
P. Sihombing, W. Lestari, Maydita Ayu Nursaskiawati, Erica Indryani
Penelitian ini bertujuan membandingkan performa model Autoregresif Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dan eksponensial smoothing Error, Trend, Seasonal (ETS) pada peramalan harga bulanan Crude Palm Oil (CPO). Data yang digunakan dari Juni 1992 sampai Juni 2022. Data harga CPO tidak stationer pada data level tetapi stationer pada data difference pertama. Berdasarkan kriteria AIC, BIC, RMSE dan MAPE terkecil model ARIMA lebih baik dalam menggambarkan pola harga CPO dibandingkan model ETS. Diperlukan kebijakan yang komprehensif sehingga harga CPO tetap stabil.
这项研究的目的是比较Crude Palm Oil (CPO)月价格估值中的autoregreity可预测性(ARIMA)和指数级平滑性(趋势)模型的性能。数据使用时间为1992年6月至2022年6月。CPO价格数据不是级别数据上的stationer,而是第一个不同数据上的stationer。根据AIC、BIC、RMSE和MAPE的标准,最小的模型ARIMA比ETS更能说明CPO价格模式。需要一项全面的政策,以保持CPO价格的稳定。
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引用次数: 0
Penerapan Analisis Regresi Nonparametrik dengan Pendekatan Regresi Kernel dan Spline
Pub Date : 2022-08-29 DOI: 10.11594/jesi.02.02.05
P. Sihombing, Ade Famalika
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menerapkan regresi nonparametrik menggunakan regresi kernel dan spline. Regresi kernel menggunakan metode penaksir Nadaraya-Watson (NWE) dan penaksir Polinomial Lokal (LPE), sedangkan untuk regresi spline adalah smoothing spline dan b-splines. Metode ini diterapkan dalam menganalisis pola hubungan Pertumbuhan Produksi Industri (PPI) dan Tingkat Pajak Perusahaan (TPP). Hasil pengepasan kurva (fitting curve) menunjukkan bahwa model regresi nonparametrik terbaik adalah model regresi b-splines dengan degree 2 dan jumlah knot 5. Hal ini dikarenakan model regresi b-splines memiliki kurva yang halus dan terlihat  lebih mengikuti sebaran data dibandingkan kurva model regresi lainnya.  TPP berpengaruh signifikan negatif terhadap PPI artinya kenaikan TPP akan menurunkan PPI. Oleh sebab itu perlu kebijakan yang komprehensif dalam menerapkan nilai TPP agar tetap dapat meningkatkan produktivitas industri.
本研究的目的是使用内核回归和spline实现非参数回归。内核回归使用Nadaraya-Watson (NWE)预测法和本地多变率(LPE),而用于spline回归则是平滑spline和b-splines。这种方法被应用于分析工业生产(PPI)和企业税率(TPP)的增长关系模式。曲线剥离结果表明,最好的非度量回归模型是b-splines回归模型,其degree 2和结量5。这是因为b- splining回归模型有一个平滑的曲线,看起来比其他回归曲线更接近数据分布。TPP对PPI有重大负面影响,这意味着TPP的增加会降低PPI。因此,为了保持工业生产力,我们需要一项全面的政策来实施TPP值。
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引用次数: 0
Dampak Kenaikan Upah Minimum Terhadap Kesenjangan Upah Antar Gender: Kasus di Seluruh Provinsi di Indonesia 最低工资增长对性别差距的影响:印度尼西亚各省的情况
Pub Date : 2022-08-28 DOI: 10.11594/jesi.02.02.03
Leonardo Alexius Simamora, Diah Widyawati
Wage gap disparities have become polemic in almost all countries in the world, especially in developing countries. Minimum wage is present as a policy on wage system that aims to be a safety net for workers. Although this policy is not a gender-oriented policy, if the number of women and the actual wage distance of women's minimum wage is lower than that of men, then the minimum wage may raise the wage gap. This study aims to examine the impact of minimum wage increases on wage gap across all provinces in Indonesia by using counterfactual methods on wage distribution. The results of this study indicate that the impact of minimum wages in Indonesia actually widen the wage gap between the gender especially on workers in the distribution of low wages. The impact of regional minium wages varies across provinces.
在世界上几乎所有国家,特别是在发展中国家,工资差距已经成为一种争论。最低工资是一项旨在为劳动者提供安全网的工资制度政策。虽然这项政策不是性别取向的政策,但如果女性的人数和女性最低工资的实际工资距离低于男性,那么最低工资可能会提高工资差距。本研究旨在通过对工资分配的反事实方法来检验最低工资增长对印度尼西亚所有省份工资差距的影响。本研究的结果表明,印度尼西亚最低工资的影响实际上扩大了性别之间的工资差距,特别是在低工资分配中的工人。地区最低工资的影响因省而异。
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引用次数: 0
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Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia
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