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FinTech, AI and green outcomes 金融科技、人工智能和绿色成果
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104924
Merve Coskun , Nigar Taspinar , Gbenga Adamolekun
This paper examines dynamic, frequency-based volatility connectedness using daily data from October 24, 2018, to July 6, 2023. It covers indices in artificial intelligence and Fintech, along with key green market indicators like clean energy, green bonds, and carbon emissions. The dynamic analysis shows that volatility connectedness peaks during major global shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and increases again during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Frequency analysis reveals that short-term connectedness is dominant, although significant long-term connectedness also exists. Additionally, AI and Fintech are identified as the primary sources of volatility across different time horizons. Robustness tests confirm the reliability and consistency of these findings. Overall, our study highlights the growing integration between technology-driven and environmentally focused markets, especially in times of crisis.
本文使用2018年10月24日至2023年7月6日的每日数据,研究了动态的、基于频率的波动性连通性。它涵盖了人工智能和金融科技指数,以及清洁能源、绿色债券和碳排放等关键绿色市场指标。动态分析表明,波动连通性在2019冠状病毒病大流行等重大全球冲击期间达到峰值,在俄乌冲突期间再次上升。频率分析显示,短期连通性占主导地位,尽管显著的长期连通性也存在。此外,人工智能和金融科技被认为是不同时间范围内波动的主要来源。稳健性检验证实了这些发现的可靠性和一致性。总体而言,我们的研究强调了技术驱动型市场和环境导向型市场之间的日益融合,尤其是在危机时期。
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引用次数: 0
Does ESG shape systemic risk in oil and gas exploration? ESG会影响油气勘探的系统性风险吗?
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104945
Aktham Maghyereh , Basel Awartani
This paper examines the influence of ESG factors on the systemic risk of oil and gas companies using firm-level data from 2004 to 2024. We find that firms with high (low) ESG scores consistently contribute less (more) to systemic risk. This effect is stronger among large, high-emission firms. The relationship between ESG and systemic risk is non-linear, with diminishing benefits beyond a certain ESG threshold—where further ESG improvement may increase systemic risk. During the 2014–2016 oil price collapse, firms with stronger ESG profiles contribute less to systemic risk. These findings underscore the role of corporate sustainability in mitigating sector-wide financial vulnerabilities.
本文利用2004 - 2024年的企业层面数据,考察了ESG因素对油气公司系统性风险的影响。我们发现,ESG得分高(低)的公司对系统性风险的贡献始终较小(更多)。这种效应在大型高排放企业中更为明显。ESG和系统性风险之间的关系是非线性的,超过一定的ESG阈值,收益就会递减——进一步改善ESG可能会增加系统性风险。在2014-2016年油价暴跌期间,具有较强ESG特征的公司对系统性风险的贡献较小。这些发现强调了企业可持续性在减轻全行业金融脆弱性方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Sports governance and football club performance 体育治理与足球俱乐部绩效
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104925
Ahmed S. Alanazi, Hayat Khan
We examine the impact of three dimensions of governance regulations introduced by Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Sport on the on-field performance of football clubs in the 240 matches of the 2021/22 Saudi Pro League season. We find that those aspects of governance that have reputational or commercialvalue such as the rules related to marketing activities and events and social responsibility improve the on-field performance of football clubs. Conversely, the “culture shock” induced by the management dimensions of the regulations negatively affects on-field performance. The negative impact of this culture shock on our performance variable is consistently significant. This finding highlights the importance of controlling for the culture shock aspect when analyzing the social and economic impact of corporate governance, which is often overlooked. It also suggests that new governance regulations should be implemented carefully, with attention to the methods of adaptation and confidence building.
我们研究了沙特阿拉伯体育部引入的治理规则的三个维度对2021/22沙特职业联赛赛季240场比赛中足球俱乐部场上表现的影响。我们发现,那些具有声誉或商业价值的治理方面,如与营销活动和事件以及社会责任相关的规则,可以提高足球俱乐部的场上表现。相反,由规则的管理层面引起的“文化冲击”会对赛场上的表现产生负面影响。这种文化冲击对我们绩效变量的负面影响始终是显著的。这一发现强调了在分析公司治理的社会和经济影响时控制文化冲击方面的重要性,这一点经常被忽视。报告还建议,应谨慎实施新的治理条例,并注意适应和建立信任的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Green data center pilots and urban economic resilience: Causal inference based on double machine learning 绿色数据中心试点与城市经济弹性:基于双机器学习的因果推理
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104927
Yongmei Cai, Jinyin Guo, Chengyue Shen
This study treats the Chinese government's 2015 Green Data Center Pilot Policy as a quasi-natural experiment. Using panel data from 281 prefecture-level Chinese cities from 2010 to 2022, this study employs a double machine learning model to empirically examine the impact of the Green Data Center Pilot Policy on urban economic resilience, the heterogeneity of its effects, and the mechanisms through which it operates. The results reveal that green data centers can significantly enhance urban economic resilience. This conclusion remains robust after a series of tests, encompassing instrumental variable estimation, excluding outliers, adjusting sample splitting ratios, varying the sample periods, and controlling for other concurrent policies. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the pilot policy's effect on urban economic resilience is influenced by urban resource endowment, city status, and energy consumption. Specifically, the pilot policy has a stronger positive effect on economic resilience in nonresource-based cities, central cities, and cities with lower energy consumption levels, while its impact on other cities is relatively weaker. Further mechanism tests demonstrate that digital finance and green innovation are significant channels through which the pilot policy enhances urban economic resilience. These findings have important policy implications for Chinese government agencies, indicating the need to promote the coordinated development of digitalization and environmental sustainability in economic and social systems.
本研究将2015年中国政府的绿色数据中心试点政策作为准自然实验。本研究利用2010 - 2022年中国281个地级市的面板数据,采用双机器学习模型实证检验了绿色数据中心试点政策对城市经济弹性的影响、影响的异质性及其运行机制。结果表明,绿色数据中心能够显著增强城市经济弹性。经过一系列测试,包括工具变量估计、排除异常值、调整样本分割比率、改变样本周期和控制其他并发策略,这一结论仍然是稳健的。异质性分析表明,试点政策对城市经济弹性的影响受城市资源禀赋、城市地位和能源消耗的影响。具体而言,试点政策对非资源型城市、中心城市和能耗水平较低城市的经济韧性的正向影响较强,对其他城市的影响相对较弱。进一步的机制检验表明,数字金融和绿色创新是试点政策增强城市经济韧性的重要渠道。这些发现对中国政府机构具有重要的政策意义,表明有必要促进经济和社会系统中数字化与环境可持续性的协调发展。
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引用次数: 0
A bad apple: The spillover effects of geopolitical risks on traditional energy trade 一个坏苹果:地缘政治风险对传统能源贸易的溢出效应
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104909
Zhenkun Cai , Lili Wang , Enyu Zhao , Mingzhu Zhou
Geopolitical risks (GPRs) are reshaping global energy trade and influencing energy security in profound ways. This study examines how GPRs have impacted fossil fuel imports from 2000 to 2022. We find that rising GPRs not only reduce imports from high-risk nations but also lead to broader declines across other markets, revealing a spillover effect beyond simple market substitution. The effects vary significantly across energy types, with coal and oil imports being more sensitive to GPRs. Countries with abundant energy resources or political/military alliances are more resilient to GPR shocks. Additionally, nations with strong renewable energy potential are more likely to transition to renewables in response to GPRs, rather than relying on fossil fuel imports from other markets. This highlights the negative spillover effects of GPRs on global fossil fuel trade and offers new insights into their role in global energy dynamics.
地缘政治风险正在重塑全球能源贸易格局,对能源安全产生深远影响。本研究考察了GPRs如何影响2000年至2022年的化石燃料进口。我们发现,gpr的上升不仅减少了来自高风险国家的进口,而且还导致其他市场的更广泛下降,揭示了简单的市场替代之外的溢出效应。不同能源类型的影响差异很大,煤炭和石油进口对GPRs更为敏感。拥有丰富能源资源或政治/军事联盟的国家更能抵御探地雷达冲击。此外,具有强大可再生能源潜力的国家更有可能向可再生能源过渡,以应对gpr,而不是依赖从其他市场进口化石燃料。这凸显了GPRs对全球化石燃料贸易的负面溢出效应,并为其在全球能源动态中的作用提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Climate governance and green innovation in Europe: New perspective 欧洲气候治理与绿色创新:新视角
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104922
Mahmoud Hassan , Ji-Yong Lee , Marc Kouzez
Green finance and energy taxes are the main national climate governance tools that have been appearing rapidly around the world in recent years. However, there is a paucity of empirical knowledge regarding the effectiveness of these instruments in stimulating green innovation in Europe. Employing data from 15 European Union countries from 2005 to 2021, we explore the impact of these tools on green innovation. Using sophisticated panel econometric methods, our findings show that green finance and energy taxes drive green innovation. The analysis also reveals a unidirectional influence of energy taxes and green finance on green innovation. A deeper analysis reveal that these tools are more effective in promoting green innovation in countries with low levels of energy taxes. The findings of this study yield important policy implications, suggesting that strengthening green finance, in combination with maintaining relatively low levels of energy taxation, may play a crucial role in fostering and accelerating green innovation in Europe.
绿色金融和能源税是近年来在世界范围内迅速出现的主要国家气候治理工具。然而,缺乏关于这些工具在刺激欧洲绿色创新方面的有效性的经验知识。利用2005年至2021年15个欧盟国家的数据,我们探讨了这些工具对绿色创新的影响。利用复杂的面板计量经济学方法,我们的研究结果表明,绿色金融和能源税推动了绿色创新。分析还揭示了能源税和绿色金融对绿色创新的单向影响。更深入的分析表明,在能源税水平较低的国家,这些工具在促进绿色创新方面更为有效。本研究的结果产生了重要的政策含义,表明加强绿色金融,与保持相对较低的能源税收水平相结合,可能在促进和加速欧洲的绿色创新方面发挥关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of bank transaction fraud using TabNet—an adaptive deep learning architecture 基于tabnet的银行交易欺诈预测——一种自适应深度学习架构
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104916
B.S. Prashanth , Manoj Kumar , Ariful Hoque , Nasser Al Muraqab , Immanuel Azaad Moonesar , Udo Christian Braendle , Ananth Rao
The development of online banking has brought about an increase in fraudulent operations, which is a major problem for banks. This study delves into the urgent requirement for interpretable, scalable, and top-notch fraud detection systems by using TabNet, an adaptable deep learning framework, on a Kaggle dataset consisting of actual bank transactions in India. Maximizing operational risk management by improving the accuracy of transaction anomaly detection and ensuring regulatory compliance through transparent models is the goal.
We utilize a supervised learning pipeline that incorporates the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) to ensure that classes are balanced. Subsequently, we conduct thorough exploratory data analysis (EDA) to identify patterns of fraud, both during specific times and across behaviors. On this dataset, five different deep learning architectures are tested: DNN, GRU, LSTM, CNN1D, and TabNet. Assessment of predictive performance was carried out using a 3-fold cross-validation framework. With a ROC-AUC of 0.9739 and an accuracy of 97.39 %, TabNet considerably outperformed the competition. The method of sparse feature selection used improved interpretability, generalized better on tabular data, and produced fewer false positives and negatives.
Critical insights for operational fraud detection systems and a contribution to the broader literature on explainable AI (XAI) in financial decision-making are offered by the findings. Goals 8 and 16 of the Sustainable Development Agenda are supported by this study, which promotes inclusive economic growth and institutional transparency. Supporting strong, policy-compliant, and interpretable decision-support systems, it also offers practical use for real-time implementation in banking infrastructure.
网上银行的发展带来了欺诈操作的增加,这是银行面临的一个主要问题。本研究通过使用TabNet(一种适应性强的深度学习框架),在由印度实际银行交易组成的Kaggle数据集上,深入研究了对可解释、可扩展和一流欺诈检测系统的迫切需求。目标是通过提高事务异常检测的准确性和通过透明模型确保法规遵从性来最大化操作风险管理。我们利用了一个有监督的学习管道,其中包含了合成少数派过采样技术(SMOTE),以确保类是平衡的。随后,我们进行彻底的探索性数据分析(EDA),以识别特定时间和跨行为的欺诈模式。在这个数据集上,测试了五种不同的深度学习架构:DNN、GRU、LSTM、CNN1D和TabNet。使用3-fold交叉验证框架进行预测性能评估。TabNet的ROC-AUC为0.9739,准确率为97.39%,明显优于竞争对手。稀疏特征选择方法提高了可解释性,对表格数据进行了更好的泛化,并且产生了更少的假阳性和阴性。研究结果为操作欺诈检测系统提供了重要见解,并为财务决策中可解释人工智能(XAI)的更广泛文献做出了贡献。本研究为可持续发展议程的目标8和目标16提供了支持,旨在促进包容性经济增长和机构透明度。它支持强大的、符合政策的、可解释的决策支持系统,还为银行基础设施中的实时实现提供了实际用途。
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引用次数: 0
A new perspective on gold as a risk hedge: Long-term impacts of bilateral political tensions between the U.S. and China 黄金作为风险对冲工具的新视角:中美双边政治紧张局势的长期影响
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104918
Shun Li , Yang Liu
Based on the GARCH-MIDAS model, this study systematically examines the impact of U.S.-China geopolitical tensions on the volatility of the spot gold market. By introducing a monthly U.S.-China tension index (UCT), we quantify the explanatory power of bilateral geopolitical friction on long-term volatility in the gold market. Empirical results indicate that the gold market exhibits significant volatility clustering, and the UCT significantly amplifies long-term volatility. This reflects the fact that rising geopolitical tensions trigger risk-averse behavior in the market, driving capital reallocation toward safe-haven assets, such as gold. After incorporating monthly realized volatility (RV) as a control variable, the UCT remains statistically significant, further validating its independent information-additive value. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate that the two-factor model, including UCT and RV, outperforms the single-factor model in volatility forecasting, with stronger predictive capability and greater stability. This study validates the need to incorporate the gold market into a systemic risk monitoring and early warning system centered on geopolitical risk. It proposes it as an important reference indicator for macroprudential regulation.
基于GARCH-MIDAS模型,本研究系统考察了中美地缘政治紧张局势对现货黄金市场波动的影响。通过引入月度美中紧张指数(UCT),我们量化了双边地缘政治摩擦对黄金市场长期波动的解释力。实证结果表明,黄金市场表现出显著的波动聚类,UCT显著放大了长期波动。这反映出一个事实,即地缘政治紧张局势加剧引发了市场的避险行为,推动资本重新配置,流向黄金等避险资产。在将月实现波动率(RV)作为控制变量后,UCT仍然具有统计显著性,进一步验证了其独立的信息附加价值。样本外预测结果表明,包括UCT和RV在内的双因素模型在波动性预测方面优于单因素模型,预测能力更强,稳定性更强。本研究验证了将黄金市场纳入以地缘政治风险为中心的系统性风险监测和预警系统的必要性。提出将其作为宏观审慎监管的重要参考指标。
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引用次数: 0
Artificial intelligence technology and firms’ OFDI: Evidence from China 人工智能技术与企业对外直接投资:来自中国的证据
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104920
Zhuang Yang , Fuxiang Wu , Ziyang Yue
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, widely regarded as a general-purpose technology (GPT), has important implications for firms' international expansion, yet evidence on its relationship with outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) remains limited. Based on a panel dataset of Chinese listed firms from 2012 to 2023, this study investigates whether AI technology enhances firms' OFDI in emerging markets using panel Probit and panel Tobit models. The results demonstrate that firms' AI technology has a significant positive impact on their OFDI, as reflected in the OFDI decision, OFDI breadth, and OFDI depth. This relationship is mediated by the firms' total factor productivity (TFP) and dynamic capabilities. Furthermore, the impact of AI technology on OFDI is moderated by industry competition. This study deepens the understanding of the effects of AI technology on firms’ OFDI and complements the issue of the relationship between GPT and firm internationalization.
人工智能(AI)技术被广泛认为是一种通用技术(GPT),对企业的国际扩张具有重要意义,但有关其与对外直接投资(OFDI)关系的证据仍然有限。本文基于2012 - 2023年中国上市公司面板数据集,运用面板Probit和面板Tobit模型,考察人工智能技术是否促进了新兴市场企业的对外直接投资。研究结果表明,人工智能技术对企业对外直接投资具有显著的正向影响,体现在对外直接投资决策、对外直接投资广度和对外直接投资深度上。企业的全要素生产率(TFP)和动态能力在这种关系中起中介作用。此外,人工智能技术对对外直接投资的影响受到行业竞争的调节。本研究加深了对人工智能技术对企业对外直接投资影响的理解,补充了GPT与企业国际化关系的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Substance over form: A carbon performance examination on corporate ESG practices 实质重于形式:企业ESG实践的碳绩效检验
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104902
Bowen Ding , Sumei Luo , Guangyou Zhou
Against the backdrop of global warming, businesses have emerged as key players in improving resource efficiency and combating pollution. Clarifying the intrinsic link between corporate ESG practices and carbon performance is of great significance. Using data from Chinese A-share listed enterprises from 2009 to 2021, this study empirically examines the specific impact and mechanisms through which corporate ESG practices affect carbon performance. The findings indicate that corporate ESG practices can actually undermine carbon performance, challenging the perception that such practices are substantive rather than superficial. This negative effect is attributed to internal agency conflicts and the resulting phenomenon of “greenwashing”. Moreover, this negative relationship is more pronounced in heavily polluting companies, non-SOE enterprises, and companies with high ESG rating discrepancies. Further analysis reveals that greenwashing is more prevalent among Category B and C enterprises, with Category B showing the most pronounced tendency. Additionally, certain enterprises exhibit greenwashing behaviors across the E, S, and G dimensions, facilitated by earnings management and inefficient investments. On the other hand, internal controls and oversight by institutional investors serve as key governance mechanisms that mitigate the adverse effects of greenwashing. The theoretical contribution of this study lies in revealing the unintended negative consequences of ESG ratings and the motivations and methods behind corporate“greenwashing.. ”Practically, it offers insights for policymakers to strengthen environmental regulations and guide businesses toward pollution control, carbon reduction, and sustainable development.
在全球变暖的背景下,企业已经成为提高资源效率和对抗污染的关键参与者。明确企业ESG实践与碳绩效之间的内在联系具有重要意义。本研究利用2009 - 2021年中国a股上市企业的数据,实证考察了企业ESG实践对碳绩效的具体影响及其机制。研究结果表明,企业的ESG实践实际上会破坏碳绩效,挑战了这种实践是实质性的而不是表面的看法。这种负面影响是由内部机构冲突和由此产生的“漂绿”现象造成的。此外,这种负相关关系在重污染企业、非国企和ESG评级差异较大的企业中更为明显。进一步分析发现,B类和C类企业的“漂绿”现象更为普遍,其中B类企业的趋势最为明显。此外,某些企业在盈余管理和低效投资的推动下,在E、S和G维度上表现出“漂绿”行为。另一方面,机构投资者的内部控制和监督是减轻“漂绿”不利影响的关键治理机制。本研究的理论贡献在于揭示了ESG评级的意外负面后果以及企业“洗绿”背后的动机和方法。实际上,它为政策制定者提供了加强环境监管和指导企业控制污染、减少碳排放和可持续发展的见解。
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引用次数: 0
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International Review of Economics & Finance
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