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Evergrande short-term effect on Chinese listed financial institutions 恒大对中国上市金融机构的短期影响
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104838
António Miguel Martins , Nuno Moutinho
This paper analyses the short-term market effects on Chinese listed financial institutions of four key announcements related to the collapse of Evergrande: a warning from the Central Bank and Financial Authorities; default on interest payments; bankruptcy in the U.S.; and liquidation. We focus on the understudied inter-industry effects of a real estate firm bankruptcy on creditors’ financial institutions in an emerging economy with significant government intervention. Using an event study, we show that Chinese financial institutions stock prices react significantly negatively to these four important announcements. Given the severity of the debt problem in the Chinese real estate market, the magnitude of the impacts is, however, lower than other recent events of a similar nature, the case of the collapse of Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank. We highlight the contagion effect of the Evergrande collapse on the inter-industry linkage with the financial industry. Finally, our results allow to understand which firm-specific characteristics appear as value drivers. Our results are robust to support that market sentiment amplifies the negative effects expected from the contagion effect.
本文分析了与恒大破产相关的四个关键公告对中国上市金融机构的短期市场影响:央行和金融当局的警告;拖欠利息支付;美国破产;和清算。我们关注的是在政府干预显著的新兴经济体中,房地产公司破产对债权人金融机构的行业间影响。通过事件研究,我们发现中国金融机构的股价对这四项重要公告做出了显著的负面反应。然而,鉴于中国房地产市场债务问题的严重性,其影响的程度低于近期其他类似性质的事件,如瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)和硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank)的倒闭。我们强调恒大倒闭对金融业跨行业联动的传染效应。最后,我们的结果允许理解哪些公司特定的特征作为价值驱动因素出现。我们的研究结果有力地支持了市场情绪放大了预期的传染效应的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Crypto-contagion and capital flows: Interconnectedness across emerging and traditional cryptocurrencies, ethical equities, and regional markets 加密传染和资本流动:新兴和传统加密货币、道德股票和区域市场之间的相互联系
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104834
Ijaz Ahmed , Mushtaq Hussain Khan
By adopting a dual-layered approach that examines both category-level and asset-level dynamics, this study offers fresh insights into how the maturity and moral alignment of cryptocurrencies shape financial contagion, diversification potential, and systemic risk across global markets. We investigate the dynamic interconnectedness among traditional and emerging cryptocurrencies, sin stocks, and socially responsible equities, employing a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model to capture evolving return spillovers across asset classes and regions. Our analysis reveals that traditional cryptocurrencies, particularly BTC, act as dominant net transmitters of shocks to both vice- and virtue-aligned equities. Emerging tokens such as TRUMP also exert significant influence as net transmitter, whereas Pi Coin consistently functions as a net receiver, suggesting lower systemic risk. For ethical investors, TRUMP, as a strong net transmitter, may raise concerns because, although such tokens can offer short-term gains and volatility-based opportunities, they may not align with socially responsible investment goals due to their speculative and politically charged nature. Regional analyses indicate stronger crypto-equity contagion in North America and Latin America, with notably weaker linkages in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. These findings challenge the presumed neutrality of digital assets and offer actionable insights for portfolio reallocation, ethical investing, and regulatory oversight. Our study contributes to the growing discourse on moral finance by revealing the reputational and systemic spillovers embedded in crypto-asset markets.
通过采用一种双层方法来研究类别级和资产级的动态,本研究为加密货币的成熟度和道德一致性如何影响全球市场的金融传染、多样化潜力和系统性风险提供了新的见解。我们研究了传统和新兴加密货币、股票和社会责任股票之间的动态互联性,采用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型来捕捉资产类别和地区之间不断变化的回报溢出效应。我们的分析表明,传统的加密货币,尤其是比特币,是对副股票和虚拟股票冲击的主要净传播者。像TRUMP这样的新兴代币也作为净发送者发挥着重要的影响,而Pi Coin一直作为净接收者发挥作用,这表明系统风险较低。对于道德投资者来说,特朗普作为一个强大的净发送者可能会引起担忧,因为尽管这些代币可以提供短期收益和基于波动性的机会,但由于其投机和政治性质,它们可能不符合社会责任投资目标。区域分析表明,北美和拉丁美洲的加密货币股票传染更强,南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲的联系明显较弱。这些发现挑战了数字资产的假定中立性,并为投资组合再分配、道德投资和监管监督提供了可行的见解。我们的研究通过揭示加密资产市场中嵌入的声誉和系统溢出效应,为道德金融的日益增长的论述做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Bureaucrat performance evaluation and national development: Evidence from mayors in China 官僚绩效评估与国家发展:来自中国市长的证据
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104835
Feng Jiang
Building a moderately prosperous society in all respects (MPSR) is China's fundamental development goal for the first two decades of twenty-first century. This study explores the role of the bureaucrat performance evaluation (BPE) system in the country's development during this period. Using the turnover data of prefecture-level mayors from 2003 to 2018, the study finds that the BPE system was multi-task based, under which the likelihood of promotion of mayors would be increased when they exhibited positive performance in the fields covered by the MPSR goals. Furthermore, the incentive effects of the multi-task-based BPE system on the performance of mayors were heterogeneous across regions and times, which reinforced the motivation of mayors in improving their performance in any case. The study adds empirical evidence to a growing literature that emphasizes the impact of the bureaucrat performance evaluation on the national development.
全面建成小康社会是中国在21世纪头20年的根本发展目标。本研究探讨官僚绩效评估(BPE)制度在这一时期国家发展中的作用。利用2003 - 2018年的地级市长更替数据,研究发现,BPE系统是基于多任务的,当市长在MPSR目标涵盖的领域表现出积极表现时,其晋升的可能性会增加。此外,基于多任务的BPE系统对市长绩效的激励效应在不同地区和不同时期存在异质性,这在任何情况下都强化了市长提高绩效的动机。该研究为越来越多的强调官僚绩效评估对国家发展影响的文献提供了经验证据。
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引用次数: 0
Financial inclusion and economic growth: The role of non-bank financial intermediation 普惠金融与经济增长:非银行金融中介的作用
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104829
Mugabil Isayev
This paper examines the moderating role of non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) in the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth. Using panel data from 26 countries between 2010 and 2021, we construct a composite financial inclusion index and include broad and narrow NBFI measures to reflect their heterogeneous characteristics. The findings confirm that financial inclusion significantly enhances economic growth, particularly in less developed economies. While NBFI also promotes economic expansion, its presence - whether broadly or narrowly defined - tends to weaken the positive effects of financial inclusion on growth. This mitigating effect is specifically pronounced for the narrow measure of NBFI in countries with medium to high levels of development. Additionally, Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality tests reveal a bidirectional relationship among financial inclusion, NBFI, and growth. These findings underscore the need for policy frameworks that enhance financial inclusion while ensuring NBFI supports rather than undermines its growth-enhancing impact.
本文考察了非银行金融中介在普惠金融与经济增长关系中的调节作用。利用2010年至2021年间来自26个国家的面板数据,我们构建了一个综合金融普惠指数,并包括广义和狭义的NBFI措施,以反映其异质性特征。研究结果证实,普惠金融显著促进了经济增长,尤其是在欠发达经济体。虽然NBFI也促进了经济扩张,但它的存在——无论是广义的还是狭义的——往往会削弱普惠金融对经济增长的积极影响。这种缓解效果在中高发展水平国家的NBFI狭窄测量中特别明显。此外,dumitrescu_hurlin面板因果检验揭示了金融普惠、NBFI和增长之间的双向关系。这些发现强调需要制定政策框架,以加强普惠金融,同时确保NBFI支持而不是破坏其促进增长的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Artificial intelligence innovation and financial report quality 人工智能创新与财务报告质量
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104832
Junze Li
This paper examines the effect of artificial intelligence adoption on firms' annual report disclosure quality. I employ a text analysis approach and use MD&A section texts to measure the precision and readability of corporate annual reports. Using a panel dataset of Chinese listed firms from 2010 to 2023, I find that corporate AI adoption effectively enhances the readability and accuracy of text in the MD&A section. Specifically, corporate AI adoption could increase management efficiency and enhance internal control over information processing which reflects its governance effect on disclosure. Furthermore, the main effect of corporate AI adoption was more pronounced when AI patents are more closely related to firms' core business and when firms’ monopoly power is relatively weak. The above conclusions remain robust after employing the DID model and instrumental variable approach. I provide further evidence of the theoretical link between corporate AI adoption and disclosure behaviour, while extending the literature on determinants of management disclosure and AI outcomes in capital markets.
本文考察了人工智能的采用对企业年报披露质量的影响。我采用文本分析法,并使用MD&; a章节文本来衡量公司年报的准确性和可读性。使用2010年至2023年中国上市公司面板数据集,我发现企业采用人工智能有效地提高了MD&; a部分文本的可读性和准确性。具体而言,企业采用人工智能可以提高管理效率,加强对信息处理的内部控制,这反映了人工智能对信息披露的治理效果。此外,当人工智能专利与企业核心业务关系更密切、企业垄断能力相对较弱时,企业采用人工智能的主要效应更为明显。采用DID模型和工具变量方法后,上述结论仍然稳健。我为企业采用人工智能与披露行为之间的理论联系提供了进一步的证据,同时扩展了有关管理层披露决定因素和资本市场人工智能结果的文献。
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引用次数: 0
Executive financial background and corporate green dual innovation: Evidence from Chinese listed companies 高管财务背景与企业绿色双创新:来自中国上市公司的证据
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104833
He Song , Jiangtao Bai , Yi Chen
Utilizing data from A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2022, this study delves into the impact and mechanism of executive financial background on corporate green dual innovation. The finding indicates that executive financial background significantly inhibits corporate green dual innovation, especially exhibiting more significant negative effect on green exploratory innovation. The mechanism lies in the fact that executive financial background hampers green dual innovation by deepening corporate financialization. Further analysis indicates that the negative effect of executive financial background on green dual innovation is particularly pronounced in state-owned enterprises, high-tech enterprises, enterprises without environmental protection penalties, and non-heavily polluting enterprises. The external and internal supervision can both positively moderate the relationship between executives’ financial background and green dual innovation. This study enriches the relevant research on the relationship between executive financial background and corporate green dual innovation, and also provides a new perspective for understanding the obstacles to corporate green innovation.
利用2009 - 2022年a股上市公司数据,研究高管财务背景对企业绿色双元创新的影响及机制。研究发现,高管财务背景显著抑制企业绿色双元创新,尤其是对绿色探索性创新表现出更为显著的负向影响。其机制在于高管金融背景通过深化企业金融化阻碍了绿色双元创新。进一步分析表明,高管财务背景对绿色双元创新的负面影响在国有企业、高新技术企业、无环保处罚企业和非重污染企业中尤为明显。外部和内部监督对高管财务背景与绿色双元创新的关系均有正向调节作用。本研究丰富了高管财务背景与企业绿色双元创新关系的相关研究,也为理解企业绿色创新的障碍提供了新的视角。
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引用次数: 0
“The impact of Covid-19 on the market volatility: A quantitative analysis of the Italian banking sector” “Covid-19对市场波动的影响:对意大利银行业的定量分析”
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104814
Marcello Forcellini , Gianfranco Antonio Vento , Eva Gracikova
This paper investigates the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the volatility of the Italian banking sector. A sample of 25 financial intermediaries listed on the Italian stock exchange is examined and compared with key benchmarks (FTSE Mib, VSTOXX, and VIX). After presenting descriptive statistics, the analysis applies hypothesis testing and a GARCH model to explore differences across three phases: before, during, and after the pandemic. Results show that volatility in the Italian banking sector rose by more than 40 % during the pandemic relative to the pre-Covid period, with daily fluctuations reaching peaks above 15 %, broadly consistent with international benchmarks. The GARCH estimates further reveal that the PEPP programme reduced volatility by roughly 10 %–15 % during the most turbulent phases, whereas APP had no significant stabilizing effect. The study contributes a sectoral and temporal focus, providing one of the first longitudinal analyses of Italian banking volatility and highlighting the critical role of ECB interventions in mitigating systemic risk.
本文调查了Covid-19大流行对意大利银行业波动的影响。在意大利证券交易所上市的25家金融中介机构的样本进行了检查,并与关键基准(富时Mib, VSTOXX和VIX)进行了比较。在提供描述性统计数据之后,该分析应用假设检验和GARCH模型来探讨大流行之前、期间和之后三个阶段的差异。结果显示,与新冠肺炎前相比,大流行期间意大利银行业的波动性上升了40%以上,每日波动峰值达到15%以上,与国际基准基本一致。GARCH的估计进一步表明,在最动荡的阶段,PEPP计划减少了大约10% - 15%的波动性,而APP没有显著的稳定效果。该研究提供了一个部门和时间焦点,提供了意大利银行业波动的首批纵向分析之一,并强调了欧洲央行干预在缓解系统性风险方面的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Post recommendation price drift: Evidence from Chinese stock market 推荐后价格漂移:来自中国股市的证据
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104830
Yarong Hao , Chengke Zhu
This paper investigates price drifts and return reversals surrounding analysts’ initial stock recommendations in Chinese A-share market from 2010 to 2017. Using an integrated framework, we test the Information Dissemination Hypothesis (IDH), Price Pressure Hypothesis (PPH), and Attention-Grabbing Hypothesis (AGH). Our findings reveal that both positive and non-positive recommendations trigger significant short-term price drifts and trading volume spikes, followed by reversals. This pattern inconsistent with the IDH and supports a behavioral sequence in which attention-induced trading generates price pressure, while arbitrage frictions delaying the mispricing correction. In Chinese retail-dominated, arbitrage-constrained environment, limited attention drives short-term drifts, and arbitrage frictions prolong mispricing corrections. These insights extend the AGH to the Chinese setting and refine the understanding of post-recommendation price drift in emerging markets.
本文研究了2010 - 2017年中国a股市场分析师初始股票推荐的价格漂移和收益逆转。本文采用一个整合的框架,对信息传播假说(IDH)、价格压力假说(PPH)和注意力吸引假说(AGH)进行了检验。我们的研究结果表明,积极和非积极的建议都会引发显著的短期价格波动和交易量飙升,随后出现逆转。这种模式与IDH不一致,并支持一种行为序列,在这种行为序列中,注意力诱导的交易产生了价格压力,而套利摩擦推迟了错误定价的调整。在中国散户主导、套利约束的环境中,有限的注意力驱动短期漂移,套利摩擦延长了错误的定价修正。这些见解将AGH扩展到中国,并完善了对新兴市场推荐后价格波动的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Financial risk tolerance within couples of retail bank clients 零售银行客户的金融风险承受能力
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104828
Marie-Hélène Broihanne, Hava Orkut
This paper examines gender differences in spouses’ financial risk tolerance in a large sample of 10,231 couples of retail bank clients. Our measure of risk tolerance is self-assessed at the bank, in the presence of a financial advisor, through a mandatory risk-profiling survey, the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive questionnaire. On average, husbands have a higher financial risk tolerance than their wives. However, positive and negative gender gaps are both observed between spouses. We find that the gender gap in risk tolerance is less likely to be observed among spouses who visit their financial advisor together than separately, underscoring the role of intra-household social interactions in the “risk tolerance battle”. In contrast, it is positively associated with the gap in stockholding, and its direction depends on the gender of the sole stockholding spouse, highlighting the important role of the gendered asymmetry in stockholding experience in couples. Our results control for the usual determinants of risk tolerance and the bargaining power between spouses and remain robust across several specifications. Our research highlights the need for financial advisors to consider spouses separately to better address the intra-household gap in risk tolerance.
本文在10,231对零售银行客户夫妇的大样本中检验了配偶金融风险承受能力的性别差异。我们对风险承受能力的衡量是在金融顾问在场的情况下,通过强制性的风险概况调查,即金融工具市场指令问卷,在银行进行自我评估。平均而言,丈夫比妻子有更高的金融风险承受能力。然而,配偶之间也存在积极和消极的性别差距。我们发现,在一起拜访理财顾问的配偶中,风险承受能力的性别差异比单独拜访理财顾问的配偶更不容易观察到,这强调了家庭内部社会互动在“风险承受能力之战”中的作用。相反,它与持股差距呈正相关,其方向取决于唯一持股配偶的性别,突出了性别不对称在夫妻持股经验中的重要作用。我们的结果控制了风险承受能力和配偶之间议价能力的通常决定因素,并且在几个规格中保持稳健。我们的研究强调了财务顾问需要将配偶分开考虑,以更好地解决家庭内部风险承受能力的差距。
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引用次数: 0
Intraday volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sectors 油价和股市之间的盘中波动溢出效应
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104809
Miramir Bagirov , Cesario Mateus
This study examines intraday volatility spillovers between oil prices and sector indices of five oil exporting and nine oil importing countries applying the connectedness approach. The sample comprises 1689 stocks, from which ten sector indices are manually constructed utilising 5-min data covering the period from July 31, 2020, to April 30, 2021. Results indicate that the total volatility connectedness remains elevated following the peak phases of market turbulence during the global health crisis. Significant and dynamic volatility interdependencies are observed between oil and sector indices, with the direction and intensity of spillovers varying by country and sector. Oil serves as a primary net-contributor of volatility to sectors in Norway and the United Kingdom, while acting as a net-recipient from sectors in Canada and the United States. Sectors in Australia, China, Mexico, and South Korea exhibit minimal volatility interlinkages with oil.
本研究运用连通性方法考察了五个石油出口国和九个石油进口国的石油价格和行业指数之间的日内波动溢出效应。样本包括1689只股票,其中10个行业指数是利用从2020年7月31日到2021年4月30日的5分钟数据手工构建的。结果表明,在全球卫生危机期间市场动荡的高峰阶段之后,总波动连通性仍然较高。石油和行业指数之间存在显著的动态波动相互依赖关系,溢出效应的方向和强度因国家和行业而异。在挪威和英国,石油是行业波动的主要净贡献者,而在加拿大和美国,石油是行业波动的净接受者。澳大利亚、中国、墨西哥和韩国的行业与石油的相互关联波动最小。
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引用次数: 0
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International Review of Economics & Finance
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