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Assessing the impact of taxation on the effective tax rate and operational risk of capital investment projects under optimal capital structures 评估税收对最优资本结构下资本投资项目实际税率和运营风险的影响
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103589

This paper proposes two metrics to correctly measure under optimal capital structures the impact of corporate statutory tax rates (a) on the effective tax rate, and (b) on the operational risk of capital investment projects and their parent firm's project portfolio. For illustrative and explanatory purposes as well as for ensuring a realistic coverage of a wide spectrum of risky capital investment projects, both metrics are applied to a stationary in mean and variance stochastic NPVτ model under the Canadian open-class corporate taxation system. The Marshallian partial equilibrium adjustment mechanism is brought into play to ensure through efficient financial markets that firms operating within any domestic economic sector are concomitantly subjected to financial equilibrium conditions, thereby enabling firms to converge in the very short run to an optimal after-tax leveraged net cost of capital. This paper concludes that current macroeconomic neo-classical rate-based marginal effective tax rate (METR) metrics systematically and significantly underestimate business organizations' microeconomic NPVτ-based corporate effective tax rates. Furthermore, increasing both the corporate statutory tax rate and the cross-correlation coefficient between portfolio projects will markedly increase a parent firm's project portfolio operational risk while impeding its capacity to reduce it.

本文提出了两个指标,用于在最优资本结构下正确衡量企业法定税率(a)对实际税率和(b)对资本投资项目及其母公司项目组合的运营风险的影响。为了说明和解释问题,并确保真实地涵盖各种风险资本投资项目,这两个指标都适用于加拿大开放式企业税制下的均值和方差稳定随机净现值τ模型。马歇尔局部均衡调整机制的作用在于,通过有效的金融市场,确保在任何国内经济部门内运营的企业都同时受制于金融均衡条件,从而使企业在短期内趋同于最优税后杠杆净资本成本。本文的结论是,目前基于新古典税率的宏观经济边际实际税率(METR)指标系统性地严重低估了企业组织基于净现值τ的微观经济企业实际税率。此外,提高企业法定税率和投资组合项目之间的交叉相关系数将显著增加母公司的项目组合运营风险,同时阻碍其降低风险的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Salience and food waste reduction: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic 显著性与减少食物浪费:来自 COVID-19 大流行病的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103584

This article investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household food waste management behavior. By utilizing 1.6 million dining transactions at 87 restaurants in 10 Chinese cities, we find that an average 8.4 percent reduction in plate waste in restaurants associated with new COVID-19 infections at the national level during the pandemic. Further evidence shows that this change in behavior is not permanent, as the level of plate waste tends to revert to pre-pandemic levels once the pandemic came under control. We test several explanations for the empirical findings and conclude that salience bias is the most plausible explanations. This insight into waste management behavior highlights the importance of utilizing salience-friendly policy instruments to effectively implement resource conservation and waste management policy goals.

本文研究了 COVID-19 大流行对家庭食物垃圾管理行为的影响。通过利用中国 10 个城市 87 家餐馆的 160 万次餐饮交易,我们发现在大流行期间,全国范围内与 COVID-19 新感染相关的餐馆餐盘垃圾平均减少了 8.4%。进一步的证据表明,这种行为变化并不是永久性的,因为一旦疫情得到控制,餐盘浪费水平往往会恢复到疫情前的水平。我们检验了几种对实证结果的解释,并得出结论:突出性偏差是最合理的解释。对废物管理行为的这一洞察,凸显了利用对突出性友好的政策工具来有效实现资源保护和废物管理政策目标的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Price spillovers and interdependences in China's agricultural commodity futures market: Evidence from the US-China trade dispute 中国农产品期货市场的价格溢出效应和相互依存性:来自中美贸易争端的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103579

We examine the effects of the US-China trade dispute on price spillovers and interdependencies among the ten most liquid agricultural futures contracts traded on China's commodity exchanges by employing the time-varying connectedness framework modified by Antonakakis, Chatziantoniou, and Gabauer (2020). We find that the overall market frictions increase modestly due to the clustering of mixed informational disturbances caused by the trade dispute. This lowers the gross spillovers in the entire asset system by reducing the efficiency of general price signal transmission. Notably, subsidiary products of rapeseed and soybean contribute the most to the total and net directional spillovers in the whole market, acting as shock transmitters before the trade dispute. The RBD palm market gains a dominant role as a shock transmitter during the trade dispute and its role strengthens further after the trade agreement was reached. Additionally, the average intensity of pairwise spillovers declines considerably during the trade dispute, suggesting weakening asset interconnectedness. The responsiveness of shock transmission channels to the trade dispute impacts is found to vary across industrial chains and the presence of delayed economic effects is detected in the structural changes of market interdependences.

我们采用 Antonakakis、Chatziantoniou 和 Gabauer(2020)修改过的时变关联性框架,研究了中美贸易争端对中国商品交易所交易的十种流动性最强的农产品期货合约的价格溢出效应和相互依存关系的影响。我们发现,由于贸易争端导致的混合信息干扰的集聚,整体市场摩擦略有增加。这降低了一般价格信号的传递效率,从而降低了整个资产系统的总溢出效应。值得注意的是,油菜籽和大豆的附属产品对整个市场的总溢出效应和净定向溢出效应贡献最大,在贸易争端发生前起到了冲击传递者的作用。在贸易争端期间,RBD 棕榈市场作为冲击传播者的作用占主导地位,而在贸易协议达成后,其作用进一步加强。此外,在贸易争端期间,成对溢出效应的平均强度大幅下降,表明资产相互关联性减弱。研究发现,不同产业链的冲击传导渠道对贸易争端影响的响应程度各不相同,而且在市场相互依存关系的结构变化中发现了延迟经济效应的存在。
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引用次数: 0
Green public procurement and corporate environmental performance: An empirical analysis based on data from green procurement contracts 绿色公共采购与企业环境绩效:基于绿色采购合同数据的实证分析
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103578
Green public procurement (GPP) is regarded as a vital tool for achieving energy conservation and emission reduction. This policy aims to guide enterprises towards cleaner production by creating market demand for green products on the demand side. However, it remains unclear whether GPP can genuinely improve corporate environmental performance. This study reviews relevant policy documents and constructs a wordlist of “green procurement contract" using the Word2vec model. By employing text analysis, we identify public procurement contracts that meet green standards. Subsequently, we match these contracts with data from China's A-share-listed companies to empirically test the impact of GPP contracts on corporate environmental performance. The findings reveal that GPP significantly enhances corporate environmental performance, primarily through conceptual governance effects, source governance effects, terminal governance effects, and supervision governance effects. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that this environmental incentive effect is particularly significant among non-state-owned enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises. Additionally, the effect is more pronounced in regions with high government environmental awareness and moderate environmental enforcement intensity. Further analysis shows that GPP also improves corporate social responsibility performance and promotes corporate ESG performance, thereby fostering sustainable development. Moreover, the study points out that increasing the transparency of information disclosure, enhancing procurement efficiency, and maintaining the stability of procurement relationships all contribute to strengthening the environmental performance incentive effect of GPP. This article helps to deepen the understanding of the “proactive government” promoting the development of green economy and also provides theoretical reference for the breakthrough of corporate green transformation under the target of “dual carbon.”
绿色公共采购(GPP)被视为实现节能减排的重要工具。这项政策旨在通过在需求方创造对绿色产品的市场需求,引导企业进行清洁生产。然而,GPP 能否真正改善企业的环境绩效,目前仍不清楚。本研究回顾了相关政策文件,并利用 Word2vec 模型构建了 "绿色采购合同 "的词表。通过文本分析,我们找出了符合绿色标准的公共采购合同。随后,我们将这些合同与中国 A 股上市公司的数据进行匹配,实证检验 GPP 合同对企业环境绩效的影响。研究结果表明,GPP 主要通过概念治理效应、源头治理效应、终端治理效应和监督治理效应显著提高了企业的环境绩效。异质性分析表明,这种环境激励效应在非国有企业和中小型企业中尤为明显。此外,这种效应在政府环境意识较强、环境执法力度适中的地区更为明显。进一步的分析表明,全球购买力平价还能提高企业的社会责任绩效,促进企业的环境、社会和公司治理绩效,从而促进可持续发展。此外,研究还指出,增加信息披露的透明度、提高采购效率、保持采购关系的稳定性都有助于加强 GPP 的环境绩效激励效应。本文有助于深化对 "有为政府 "推动绿色经济发展的认识,也为 "双碳 "目标下企业绿色转型的突破提供了理论参考。
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引用次数: 0
Does the application of industrial robots promote export green transformation? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing enterprises 工业机器人的应用能否促进出口绿色转型?来自中国制造企业的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103538

Green exports are key in propelling China's foreign trade toward high-quality development. Based on rigorous theoretical analysis, this article employs comprehensive data from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) from 2006 to 2014, along with data from the China Customs and industrial enterprise databases, to evaluate the impact of industrial robot utilization on fostering the green transformation of exports. The results reveal that the application of industrial robots unequivocally contributes to advancing the eco-friendly transformation of exports. This conclusion withstands endogeneity and robustness tests. In particular, industrial robots directly promote the green transformation of exports and exert an indirect influence through technological and scale effects. Technological effects can be divided into technological progress and green production, while scale effects relate to enterprise size and industry competitiveness. In terms of heterogeneity, the promoting effect of industrial robot utilization on the green transformation of exports is more pronounced in foreign-funded enterprises, technology-intensive enterprises, and enterprises in the eastern region. To efficiently leverage policy effects and facilitate the green transformation of exports, this article suggests strengthening policy guidance, providing special funds, tax incentives, and rewards, enhancing enterprise research and development capabilities, and encouraging domestic and non-technology-intensive enterprises, and enterprises in the eastern region to utilize industrial robots.

绿色出口是推动中国对外贸易实现高质量发展的关键。本文在严谨的理论分析基础上,运用国际机器人联合会(IFR)2006-2014 年的综合数据,结合中国海关和工业企业数据库的数据,评估了工业机器人应用对促进出口绿色转型的影响。研究结果表明,工业机器人的应用无疑有助于推动出口产品的生态转型。这一结论经得起内生性和稳健性检验。其中,工业机器人直接促进了出口的绿色转型,并通过技术效应和规模效应产生了间接影响。技术效应可分为技术进步和绿色生产,而规模效应则与企业规模和行业竞争力有关。从异质性来看,工业机器人利用对出口绿色转型的促进效应在外资企业、技术密集型企业和东部地区企业中更为明显。为有效发挥政策效应,促进出口绿色转型,本文建议加强政策引导,提供专项资金、税收优惠和奖励,提升企业研发能力,鼓励内资企业、非技术密集型企业和东部地区企业使用工业机器人。
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引用次数: 0
Debt erosion: Asymmetric response to demand and supply shocks 债务侵蚀:对供需冲击的不对称反应
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103588

This paper explores the effect of inflation supply and demand shocks on government debt for a sample of 32 advanced economies and 24 emerging markets from 1970 to 2022. The shocks are identified using a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression model with quarterly data. Estimations of dynamic panel regressions and local projections suggest that supply shocks lead to persistent increases in government debt, while demand shocks result in long-lasting declines. Furthermore, high debt levels amplify the impacts of both supply and demand shocks by more than three times. Specifically, supply shocks contribute to an increase in debt through elevated borrowing costs and prolonged depreciation, whereas demand shocks erode debt through persistent improvements in the primary balance, driven by increased revenues.

本文以 1970 年至 2022 年间 32 个发达经济体和 24 个新兴市场为样本,探讨了通胀供求冲击对政府债务的影响。这些冲击是通过使用季度数据的符号限制结构向量自回归模型确定的。动态面板回归和本地预测的估计结果表明,供给冲击会导致政府债务持续增加,而需求冲击则会导致政府债务长期下降。此外,高债务水平会将供应和需求冲击的影响放大三倍以上。具体来说,供给冲击通过借贷成本上升和长期贬值导致债务增加,而需求冲击则通过收入增加导致基本收支持续改善来侵蚀债务。
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引用次数: 0
Is climate change fueling commercial banks’ non-performing loan ratio? Empirical evidence from 31 provinces in China 气候变化是否助长了商业银行的不良贷款率?来自中国 31 个省份的经验证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103585

The high frequency and strong intensity of climate change pose a huge influence on the banking system. To clarify the correlation between climate change and banks' asset quality, this study evaluated the impact of temperature fluctuations on the non-performing loan (NPL) ratios of commercial banks and their heterogeneity and mechanisms using a dynamic panel data model with 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020. The empirical results showed that climate change had a significant positive impact on the NPL ratio, with the adverse effect being stronger in provinces with lower per capita income and environmental infrastructure investment. Moreover, there was an obvious transmission channel of “climate change—labor productivity—income—NPL ratio”. Climate change decreased incomes by lowering labor productivity, thereby weakening economic agents’ ability to repay loans. Furthermore, rising insurance levels and climate-related fiscal expenditure facilitated the diversification and transfer of climate-related default risk. This research supplements the empirical evidence on climate-related financial risks at the provincial level in China, and the findings provide useful insights for enhancing the quality management of climate-sensitive banking assets and maintaining financial stability.

气候变化频率高、强度大,对银行系统的影响巨大。为厘清气候变化与银行资产质量的相关性,本研究以中国 31 个省份为研究对象,采用动态面板数据模型,评估了 2005-2020 年气温波动对商业银行不良贷款率的影响及其异质性和作用机制。实证结果表明,气候变化对不良贷款率有显著的正向影响,在人均收入和环境基础设施投资较低的省份,不利影响更强。此外,"气候变化-劳动生产率-收入-净负债率 "存在明显的传导渠道。气候变化通过降低劳动生产率来减少收入,从而削弱经济主体的还贷能力。此外,保险水平的提高和与气候相关的财政支出促进了与气候相关的违约风险的分散和转移。该研究补充了中国省级层面气候相关金融风险的实证证据,研究结果为加强气候敏感型银行资产的质量管理、维护金融稳定提供了有益的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Who are responsible venture capitalists? The effect of business experience 谁是负责任的风险资本家?商业经验的影响
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103593

Using 891 venture capitalist- and 1777 deal-level samples of China, we find that venture capitalists with business experience significantly promote their portfolio-firm's corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance better than those without business experience. To explore the mechanisms, we perform DID test and heterogeneity analysis. First, we find venture capitalists with business experience increase the CSR performance of firms in hazardous industries following a shock that raised awareness of CSR, which indicates that the venture capitalists have more social consciousness. Second, the effects of business experience on CSR are stronger if venture capitalists invest in earlier stages of firms or have greater equity ownerships, in which cases the venture capitalists have more and better opportunities to display their abilities in CSR activities. Overall, our findings highlight the effects of venture capitalists' human capital on sustainable investments.

通过对中国 891 个风险投资人和 1777 个交易层面的样本进行分析,我们发现,与没有商业经验的风险投资人相比,有商业经验的风险投资人对其所投资企业的企业社会责任(CSR)绩效有明显的促进作用。为了探索其中的机制,我们进行了 DID 检验和异质性分析。首先,我们发现具有商业经验的风险投资人在受到提高企业社会责任意识的冲击后,会提高危险行业企业的企业社会责任绩效,这表明风险投资人具有更强的社会意识。其次,如果风险投资人投资于企业的早期阶段或拥有更多股权,那么商业经验对企业社会责任的影响会更大,在这种情况下,风险投资人有更多更好的机会在企业社会责任活动中展示自己的能力。总之,我们的研究结果凸显了风险资本家的人力资本对可持续投资的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Time-frequency higher-order moment Co-movement and connectedness between Chinese stock and commodity markets 中国股市与商品市场的时频高阶矩共振与关联性
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103580

This study examines the higher-order moment co-movement and connectedness between China's stock and commodity markets across time and frequency domains. We propose wavelet decomposition to develop a multiscale time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach for measuring higher-order moment connectedness. Our empirical findings are as follows: First, the co-movement of stock-commodity varies over time and across different frequencies, exhibiting heterogeneity at different moments. Stocks demonstrate robust co-movement with commodities over the medium- and long-term periods. Second, higher-order moment connectedness is stronger than return connectedness, whereas weaker than volatility connectedness. Finally, higher-order moment connectedness is highly event-dependent, peaking at COVID-19 onset. And long-run factors have the greatest effect on dynamic moment connectedness.

本研究探讨了中国股票市场和大宗商品市场之间跨时域和频域的高阶矩共动性和关联性。我们提出了小波分解法,以开发一种多尺度时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)方法来测量高阶时刻关联性。我们的实证研究结果如下:首先,股票与商品的共动性随时间和不同频率而变化,在不同时刻表现出异质性。在中长期内,股票与商品表现出强劲的共动性。其次,高阶时刻关联性强于收益率关联性,但弱于波动率关联性。最后,高阶时刻关联性高度依赖于事件,在 COVID-19 开始时达到峰值。而长期因素对动态时刻关联性的影响最大。
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引用次数: 0
China's economic growth and low-carbon development under the background of resource curse: A new perspective based on digital finance 资源诅咒背景下的中国经济增长与低碳发展:基于数字金融的新视角
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103590

Does digital finance (DIF) in the digital age mitigate the economic challenges stemming from the resource curse and facilitate low-carbon development? This paper extends the theoretical framework of endogenous economic growth to investigate the interactive relationship among economic growth, low-carbon development, and the resource curse. Furthermore, it explores the pivotal role of DIF within this context. Subsequently, this paper employs Chinese provincial data from 2011 to 2020 to empirically examine the theoretical assumptions through econometric methods. The findings are as follows. First, DIF has the potential to stimulate economic growth, whereas resource endowment can impede it. Second, DIF significantly reduces carbon emission intensity (CEI); however, a high degree of resource endowment does not foster low-carbon development. Third, in the mechanism by which resource endowment influences economic growth, DIF exhibits a single threshold effect. When the DIF level surpasses 361.46, the negative relationship between resource endowment and economic growth shifts to a significant positive correlation. Regarding the mechanisms by which resource endowment impacts CEI, DIF shows a double-threshold effect. When DIF surpasses the second threshold, the significant positive impact of resource endowment on CEI becomes significantly negative. Fourth, DIF and resource endowment indirectly influence CEI through economic development. Fifth, the impact of DIF on CEI and the influence of resource endowment on economic growth are marked by resource endowment heterogeneity. DIF exhibits a double-threshold effect on the influence of resource endowment on economic growth in non-resource endowment regions. In resource-rich areas, as the DIF level rises, the significant positive effect of resource endowment on CEI intensifies. Conversely, in non-resource endowment regions, as the DIF level increases, the significant positive effect of resource endowment on CEI transforms into a significant negative effect.

数字时代的数字金融(DIF)能否缓解资源诅咒带来的经济挑战并促进低碳发展?本文扩展了内生经济增长的理论框架,研究了经济增长、低碳发展和资源诅咒之间的互动关系。此外,本文还探讨了 DIF 在其中的关键作用。随后,本文利用 2011-2020 年中国省级数据,通过计量经济学方法对理论假设进行了实证检验。研究结果如下。首先,DIF 有可能刺激经济增长,而资源禀赋则可能阻碍经济增长。其次,DIF 能大幅降低碳排放强度(CEI);然而,高度的资源禀赋并不能促进低碳发展。第三,在资源禀赋影响经济增长的机制中,DIF 表现出单一的门槛效应。当 DIF 水平超过 361.46 时,资源禀赋与经济增长之间的负相关关系转变为显著的正相关关系。关于资源禀赋影响 CEI 的机制,DIF 显示出双重门槛效应。当 DIF 超过第二个阈值时,资源禀赋对 CEI 的显著正向影响变为显著负向影响。第四,DIF 和资源禀赋通过经济发展间接影响 CEI。第五,DIF 对 CEI 的影响和资源禀赋对经济增长的影响存在资源禀赋异质性。在非资源禀赋地区,DIF 对资源禀赋对经济增长的影响表现出双重阈值效应。在资源丰富的地区,随着 DIF 水平的上升,资源禀赋对 CEI 的显著正向影响会增强。反之,在非资源禀赋地区,随着 DIF 水平的提高,资源禀赋对 CEI 的显著正效应转化为显著负效应。
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引用次数: 0
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International Review of Economics & Finance
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