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Effects of Fundamentals, Geopolitical Risk and Expectations Factors on Crude Oil Prices 基本面、地缘政治风险和预期因素对原油价格的影响
Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3937957
Konstantinos Gkillas, Jeevananthan Manickavasagam, S. Visalakshmi
Though there are diverse factors that influence crude oil prices, we examine the degree of influence of factors, such as demand, supply, geopolitical and economic agents’ expectations. The main objectives of this study are the following: firstly, to determine the necessary factors that influence crude oil prices and secondly, the level of factors required to produce the specific level of outcome. Actually, the existing literature addresses the net impact of variables on crude oil price and in reality, no single combination can influence crude oil prices; thus, we set our final objective to find out the configurations of variables that impact crude oil prices. The first two objectives are addressed by using Necessary Condition Analysis and the final objective is met by using fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). The results show that no variables were found necessary under fsQCA, but under NCA, all are considered as necessary variables with different effect sizes for crude oil price. fsQCA reveals eight equifinal pathways leading to higher crude oil price and a single pathway resulting in lower crude oil price. The findings suggest ways for traders, governments, corporates and analysts to consider the levels of independent variables that lead the Brent to trade in the market at higher or lower prices and to take decisions on the same.
虽然影响原油价格的因素多种多样,但我们考察了需求、供应、地缘政治和经济主体预期等因素的影响程度。本研究的主要目的是:首先,确定影响原油价格的必要因素,其次,产生特定水平的结果所需的因素水平。实际上,现有文献研究的是变量对原油价格的净影响,在现实中,没有单一的组合可以影响原油价格;因此,我们的最终目标是找出影响原油价格的变量配置。通过必要条件分析解决了前两个目标,并通过模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)实现了最终目标。结果表明,在fsQCA下没有发现必要变量,而在NCA下,所有变量都被认为是原油价格的必要变量,其效应大小不同。fsQCA揭示了导致原油价格上涨的8条等效路径和导致原油价格下跌的1条等效路径。这些发现为交易员、政府、企业和分析师提供了考虑导致布伦特原油在市场上以更高或更低价格交易的自变量水平的方法,并据此做出决策。
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引用次数: 8
Exergoeconomic Assessment of the Ejector-Based Battery Thermal Management System for Electric and Hybrid-Electric Vehicles 基于弹射器的电动及混合动力汽车电池热管理系统的努力经济性评估
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3931676
Yousif M. Alkhulaifi, N. Qasem, S. Zubair
The battery is a critical component for operating electric and hybrid electric vehicles where temperature control is vital for safe and efficient operation. In this paper, the ejector-based battery thermal management system (BTMS) is analyzed compared to the basic BTMS system from a thermal and exergo-economic perspective. The ejector is added to mix the refrigerant streams from the cabin evaporator and battery chiller, thus delivering the mixture to the compressor with higher pressure to reduce the compression power and improve system performance. The exergo-economic study is carried out for different evaporator, chiller, and condenser temperatures and different battery thermal loads to illustrate the ejector-based system's technical and economic feasibility. Results show an optimal (minimal) total system cost rate of 0.9092 US$/h for the ejector-based system, compared to 1.0222 US$/h for the basic system (11.1% reduction). Based on the applied conditions, the total exergy destruction is found to be 1.596 kW for the ejector-based BTMS and 2.243 kW for the basic BTMS. Furthermore, the total exergy destruction reduction in the ejector-based system is 28.8% compared to the basic system.
电池是运行电动和混合动力汽车的关键部件,温度控制对于安全高效运行至关重要。本文从热学和燃烧经济的角度对基于喷射器的电池热管理系统(BTMS)与基本的电池热管理系统进行了比较分析。添加喷射器,将舱室蒸发器和蓄电池冷水机的制冷剂流混合,将混合物输送到压力更高的压缩机,降低压缩功率,提高系统性能。通过对不同蒸发器、冷水机组和冷凝器温度以及不同电池热负荷的试验,论证了喷射器系统的技术经济可行性。结果表明,基于喷射器的系统的最佳(最小)系统总成本率为0.9092美元/小时,而基本系统的成本率为1.0222美元/小时(降低11.1%)。根据应用条件,喷射器型BTMS的总耗能为1.596 kW,基本型BTMS的总耗能为2.243 kW。此外,与基本系统相比,基于喷射器的系统的总火用破坏减少了28.8%。
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引用次数: 18
A High-Performance Flexible Supercapacitor Using Dual Alkaline Redox Electrolytes 采用双碱性氧化还原电解质的高性能柔性超级电容器
Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3933566
Ying Zhang, Ting Zeng, Wei Yan, Dongxue Huang, Yuanyuan Zhang, Qijin Wan, N. Yang
Supercapacitors (SCs) feature high power densities and fast charging/discharging rates but suffer from low energy densities. The introduction of redox species into the electrolytes have been proposed as an effective approach to overcome this challenge. To further improve the energy density of such SCs, a mixture of two redox species of alizarin red S, p-phenylenediamine redox electrolytes dissolved in the KOH solution is employed as the anodic electrolyte in this work. Two flexible capacitor electrodes—holey reduced graphene oxide (hrGO) and Ni−Co hydroxide/oxide hydroxide nanosheets coated hrGO—are further prepared and utilized to ensemble a flexible asymmetric SC device with aid of gel polymer electrolytes. This flexible SC device possesses a cell voltage of 1.5 V, a maximum energy density of 40.8 Wh kg −1 with a power density of 750 W kg −1 , and 99.2% capacitance retention after 5000 charge/discharge cycles. It remains its high performance even under different folding conditions. Such high performance originates from improved solubility and stability of used redox electrolytes in alkaline media and their matched performance with that of the cathode. This flexible SC device offers a new strategy to ensemble power suppliers that can be integrated into modern wearable electronics and smart devices.
超级电容器具有高功率密度和快速充放电速率,但能量密度低。在电解质中引入氧化还原物质被认为是克服这一挑战的有效方法。为了进一步提高这种SCs的能量密度,本研究采用溶解在KOH溶液中的两种氧化还原物质茜素红S、对苯二胺氧化还原电解质的混合物作为阳极电解质。进一步制备了两种柔性电容器电极——孔洞还原氧化石墨烯(hrGO)和涂覆hrGO的Ni−Co氢氧化物/氧化氢氧化物纳米片,并利用凝胶聚合物电解质集成柔性不对称SC器件。该柔性SC器件的电池电压为1.5 V,最大能量密度为40.8 Wh kg - 1,功率密度为750 W kg - 1,在5000次充放电循环后电容保持率为99.2%。即使在不同的折叠条件下,它仍然保持其高性能。这种高性能源于使用的氧化还原电解质在碱性介质中的溶解度和稳定性的提高,以及它们与阴极的匹配性能。这种灵活的SC器件为集成电源供应商提供了一种新的策略,可以集成到现代可穿戴电子设备和智能设备中。
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引用次数: 11
How to talk about an out-group: Effects on in-group trust and out-group generosity 如何谈论外群体:对内群体信任和外群体慷慨的影响
Pub Date : 2021-10-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3945496
Jan Biermann, Hendrik Hüning, Lydia Mechtenberg
This paper examines how deliberation in an in-group on how much to share with an out-group affects in-group trust and out-group generosity. In a lab-in-the-field experiment with 13 schools, we randomly assign school minors into pairs that decide how much of a common fund to transfer to refugee minors. Treatments vary whether pairs partake in a free-form chat or write down their reasoning individually. After treatment, they vote on transfers. In our sample, communication on refugees is shaped by a political-correctness norm: it is more refugee-friendly than individual reasoning, and it increases optimism within pairs about the partner's refugee-friendliness. Subjects trust their partners the more, the more refugee-friendly they believe them to be. This is rational in our sample since more refugee-friendly subjects turn out more trustworthy. Communication also has a positive impact on willingness to collectively share funds with refugee minors. Hence, our experiment indicates that in our sample, both the in-group and the out-group profit from a political-correctness norm to speak well of the out-group.
本文考察了内群体对与外群体分享多少的考虑如何影响内群体信任和外群体慷慨。在一项针对13所学校的实地实验室实验中,我们随机将学校里的未成年人分成两组,由他们决定将多少共同基金转移给未成年难民。治疗方法各不相同,无论是参与自由形式的聊天还是单独写下他们的推理。治疗后,他们对转移进行投票。在我们的样本中,关于难民的交流是由政治正确规范塑造的:它比个人推理更有利于难民,而且它增加了伴侣对难民友好的乐观态度。实验对象越信任他们的伴侣,他们认为他们对难民越友好。这在我们的样本中是合理的,因为对难民更友好的受试者更值得信赖。沟通也对集体分担未成年难民资金的意愿产生积极影响。因此,我们的实验表明,在我们的样本中,内群体和外群体都从政治正确规范中获益,从而为外群体说好话。
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引用次数: 1
External Debt Burden and Infrastructural Development Nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach. 尼日利亚的外债负担和基础设施发展关系:ARDL方法。
Pub Date : 2021-10-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3936677
C. Onwuka
This study focused on external debt burden and infrastructural development nexus in Nigeria using data spanning between the periods 1981 to 2020 by employing the use of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and granger causality test as the major statistical techniques of analysis. From the findings, the coefficient of error correction term shows that about 70 percent of the discrepancy between the actual and the long run or equilibrium value of infrastructural development is corrected or eliminated each year. The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.680 which shows that about 68 percent variations in the infrastructural development were explained by the independent variables. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test shows that all variables were stationary at first difference. The results for the Bounds test reveal that there is a long run relationship among the variables. This is because the F-statistics value (5.194) is greater than upper Bounds critical values at 5% level of significant. The ARDL results show that external debt, domestic debt and inflation rate have a negative impact on infrastructural development in the long run while exchange rate and interest rate has a positive effect on infrastructural development in the long run. Also, domestic debt and exchange rate were found to have a significant impact on infrastructural development while external debt, inflation rate and interest rate were found to be insignificant in the long run. Furthermore, the granger causality test results indicate while there is no causality between external debt and infrastructural development, there seems to be a unidirectional causality between domestic debt and infrastructural growth in Nigeria. The study concludes that federal government of the country should cut down excessive borrowings and that the existing ones are invested in projects that would eventually generate enough returns to defray such debts accordingly. Also, an adoption of policy framework that will ensure macroeconomic stability such as price stability, job creation, increased output, political stability, etc. becomes fundamental in getting rid of heavy reliance on external debt in the country.
本研究采用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)和格兰杰因果检验作为主要的统计分析技术,利用1981年至2020年的数据,重点研究尼日利亚的外债负担和基础设施发展关系。从研究结果来看,误差修正项系数表明,每年约有70%的基础设施发展实际值与长期或均衡值之间的差异得到修正或消除。决定系数(R2)为0.680,表明约68%的基础设施发展变化可以由自变量解释。增广Dickey Fuller (ADF)单位根检验表明,所有变量在一差时都是平稳的。边界检验的结果表明,变量之间存在长期的关系。这是因为f统计值(5.194)在5%显著性水平下大于上限临界值。ARDL结果表明,外债、内债和通货膨胀率对基础设施发展的长期影响为负,而汇率和利率对基础设施发展的长期影响为正。此外,发现国内债务和汇率对基础设施发展有重大影响,而外债,通货膨胀率和利率在长期内被发现是微不足道的。此外,格兰杰因果检验结果表明,虽然外债与基础设施发展之间不存在因果关系,但尼日利亚国内债务与基础设施增长之间似乎存在单向因果关系。该研究的结论是,联邦政府应减少过度借贷,并将现有的借贷投资于最终将产生足够回报的项目,以支付相应的债务。此外,通过确保宏观经济稳定的政策框架,如价格稳定、创造就业、增加产出、政治稳定等,是摆脱该国严重依赖外债的根本。
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引用次数: 1
Energy exchange among heterogeneous prosumers under price uncertainty 价格不确定性下异质生产消费者之间的能源交换
Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3943110
M. Castellini, Luca Di Corato, M. Moretto, S. Vergalli
In this paper, we provide a real options model framing prosumers’ investment in photovoltaic plants. This is presented in a Smart Grid context where the exchange of energy among prosumers is possible. We determine the optimal size of the photovoltaic installations based on the influence the self-consumption profiles on the exchange of energy among prosumers. We calibrate the model using figures relative to the Northern Italy energy market and investigate the investment decision allowing for different prosumer profiles and consider several combinations of their individual energy demand and supply. Our findings show that the shape of individual energy demand and supply curves is crucial to the exchange of energy among prosumers, and that there could be circumstances under which no exchange occurs.
在本文中,我们提供了一个真实期权模型,框架产消者在光伏电站投资。这是在智能电网环境中提出的,在这个环境中,产消者之间的能量交换是可能的。我们根据自我消费概况对产消者之间能源交换的影响来确定光伏装置的最佳规模。我们使用与意大利北部能源市场相关的数据来校准模型,并调查了允许不同产消者概况的投资决策,并考虑了他们个人能源需求和供应的几种组合。我们的研究结果表明,个体能源需求和供给曲线的形状对产消者之间的能源交换至关重要,并且可能在没有交换的情况下发生。
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引用次数: 8
The Politics of Legal Education 法律教育的政治学
Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3934366
M. Bartl, Candida Leone
The chapter unpacks the politics of nexus between legal education, legal practice and legal research. We start by problematising some common assumptions and subsequently lay out contemporary challenges to legal education and academia. We argue that we need to abandon all reflexes associating national=doctrinal=useful for legal practice and hence legal education, and international=non-doctrinal=useless for lawyers and hence legal education. First, legal education has to be conscious of the complexity of inter-connected, and ever-changing, laws, regulations and governance structures in the contemporary world. Second, it needs to be built on pluralist research agendas, that draw on doctrinal and non-doctrinal scholarship, with both national and global perspectives in mind. Finally, legal education for the 21st century has to be accountable to a broader set of actors than it has been the case thus far: it needs a more inclusive concept of ‘legal practice’.
这一章揭示了法律教育、法律实践和法律研究之间的政治联系。我们首先对一些常见的假设提出问题,然后列出当代法律教育和学术界面临的挑战。我们认为,我们需要抛弃所有将国家=理论=对法律实践有用,因此法律教育,国际=非理论=对律师无用,因此法律教育的反射。首先,法学教育必须意识到当今世界相互联系、不断变化的法律、法规和治理结构的复杂性。第二,它需要建立在多元研究议程的基础上,利用教义和非教义的学术研究,同时考虑到国家和全球的视角。最后,21世纪的法律教育必须对比以往更广泛的参与者负责:它需要一个更具包容性的“法律实践”概念。
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引用次数: 2
Various Course Proposals for: Mathematics with a View Towards (the Theoretical Underpinnings of) Machine Learning 各种课程建议:面向机器学习(理论基础)的数学
Pub Date : 2021-09-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3923528
Marc S. Paolella
In light of the growing use, acceptance of, and demand for, machine learning in many fields, notably data science, but also other fields such as finance- and this in both industry and academics, some university departments might wish, or find themselves forced to, accord to the winds of change and address this pressing issue. The goal of this document is to assist in designing relevant courses using material at the appropriate mathematical level. It protocols, sorts, evaluates, and contrasts, numerous viable books for a variety of possible courses. The subjects span several levels of, and different avenues in, linear algebra and real analysis, with briefer discussions of material in probability theory and mathematical finance.
鉴于机器学习在许多领域的使用、接受和需求不断增长,尤其是数据科学领域,但也包括金融等其他领域——这在工业界和学术界都是如此,一些大学院系可能希望,或发现自己被迫顺应变革之风,解决这个紧迫的问题。本文件的目的是协助设计相关的课程使用材料在适当的数学水平。它为各种可能的课程对许多可行的书籍进行协议、分类、评估和对比。课程涵盖了线性代数和实分析的几个层次和不同的途径,并对概率论和数学金融中的材料进行了简短的讨论。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Teaching Outcomes in Higher Education 新冠肺炎疫情对高等教育教学成果的影响
Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3916349
Philipp Hansen, Lennart Struth, Max Thon, T. Umbach
The COVID-19 pandemic forced much of the world to adapt suddenly to severe restrictions. In this study, we attempt to quantify the impact of the pandemic on student performance in higher education. To collect data on important covariates, we conducted a survey among first-year students of Microeconomics at the University of Cologne. In contrast to other studies, we are able to consider a particularly suitable performance measure that was not affected by the COVID-19 restrictions implemented shortly before the start of the summer term 2020. While the average performance improves in the first term affected by the restrictions, this does not apply to students with a low socioeconomic background. Trying to identify more specific channels explaining this finding, interestingly, our data yield no evidence that the average improvement results from the altered teaching formats, suggesting instead that the enhanced performance stems from an increase in available study time.
COVID-19大流行迫使世界大部分地区突然适应了严格的限制。在这项研究中,我们试图量化疫情对学生在高等教育中的表现的影响。为了收集重要协变量的数据,我们在科隆大学微观经济学的一年级学生中进行了一项调查。与其他研究相比,我们能够考虑一个特别合适的绩效指标,该指标不受2020年夏季学期开始前不久实施的COVID-19限制的影响。虽然受限制的影响,第一学期的平均成绩有所提高,但这并不适用于社会经济背景较低的学生。试图找出更具体的渠道来解释这一发现,有趣的是,我们的数据没有证据表明改变教学形式的平均改善结果,而是表明提高的表现源于可用学习时间的增加。
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引用次数: 3
Developing An Awareness Raising Campaign on Undeclared Work in the Western Balkans 开展关于西巴尔干地区未申报工作的提高认识运动
Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3919825
Colin Williams
The objectives of this report are: to review the elements of an effective education and awareness raising campaign on undeclared work; to set out a proposal for an education and awareness raising campaign on undeclared work in the Western Balkans, and to provide good practice examples of specific education and awareness raising activities that are transferable to Western Balkan economies. The outcome is to set out what is required for an effective education and awareness raising campaign on the benefits of declared work in Western Balkan economies.
本报告的目标是:审查关于未申报工作的有效教育和提高认识运动的要素;提出一项关于西巴尔干未申报工作的教育和提高认识运动的建议,并提供可转让给西巴尔干经济体的具体教育和提高认识活动的良好做法示例。会议的结果是阐明在西巴尔干经济中开展有效的教育和提高认识运动所需要做的工作。
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引用次数: 0
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Political Economy - Development: Public Service Delivery eJournal
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