Pub Date : 2018-03-22DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2018.1425171
Nicolas Todd, A. Valleron, P. Bougnères
ABSTRACT The investigation of a simple behavior, child naming, can provide insights into the varying reactions of families confronted by the extraordinary war losses of the First World War. The current study analyses names given in a large cohort of French orphans born 1914–1916, constructed thanks to the linkage of civil registers with a nationwide database of soldiers who died during the War. It shows that a prenatal loss of father was associated with a strong increase in father's name transmission. The phenomenon was twice as intense in officers' offspring. Regression analysis suggests the precise timing of the father's death controlled this change in naming behavior: father's name transmission was at a maximum when the father died at the very beginning of pregnancy.
{"title":"The naming of orphans in France during World War One: A study of a nationwide cohort of pupilles de la Nation","authors":"Nicolas Todd, A. Valleron, P. Bougnères","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2018.1425171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2018.1425171","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The investigation of a simple behavior, child naming, can provide insights into the varying reactions of families confronted by the extraordinary war losses of the First World War. The current study analyses names given in a large cohort of French orphans born 1914–1916, constructed thanks to the linkage of civil registers with a nationwide database of soldiers who died during the War. It shows that a prenatal loss of father was associated with a strong increase in father's name transmission. The phenomenon was twice as intense in officers' offspring. Regression analysis suggests the precise timing of the father's death controlled this change in naming behavior: father's name transmission was at a maximum when the father died at the very beginning of pregnancy.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131135856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-03-20DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2018.1443863
P. Peregrine, Rob Brennan, Thomas E. Currie, K. Feeney, Pieter François, P. Turchin, H. Whitehouse
ABSTRACT New advances in computer science address problems historical scientists face in gathering and evaluating the now vast data sources available through the Internet. As an example we introduce Dacura, a dataset curation platform designed to assist historical researchers in harvesting, evaluating, and curating high-quality information sets from the Internet and other sources. Dacura uses semantic knowledge graph technology to represent data as complex, inter-related knowledge allowing rapid search and retrieval of highly specific data without the need of a lookup table. Dacura automates the generation of tools to help non-experts curate high quality knowledge bases over time and to integrate data from multiple sources into its curated knowledge model. Together these features allow rapid harvesting and automated evaluation of Internet resources. We provide an example of Dacura in practice as the software employed to populate and manage the Seshat databank.
{"title":"Dacura: A new solution to data harvesting and knowledge extraction for the historical sciences","authors":"P. Peregrine, Rob Brennan, Thomas E. Currie, K. Feeney, Pieter François, P. Turchin, H. Whitehouse","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2018.1443863","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2018.1443863","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT New advances in computer science address problems historical scientists face in gathering and evaluating the now vast data sources available through the Internet. As an example we introduce Dacura, a dataset curation platform designed to assist historical researchers in harvesting, evaluating, and curating high-quality information sets from the Internet and other sources. Dacura uses semantic knowledge graph technology to represent data as complex, inter-related knowledge allowing rapid search and retrieval of highly specific data without the need of a lookup table. Dacura automates the generation of tools to help non-experts curate high quality knowledge bases over time and to integrate data from multiple sources into its curated knowledge model. Together these features allow rapid harvesting and automated evaluation of Internet resources. We provide an example of Dacura in practice as the software employed to populate and manage the Seshat databank.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127654745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-03-14DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1393358
Christophe Mimeur, François Queyroi, A. Banos, Thomas Thévenin
ABSTRACT The development of the French railway network was mostly planned in a centralized manner. Despite the multiplication of travel opportunities, the local impact on the demographics is often given as an indirect effect of this spatial transformation. However, this “structuring effect” is still subject to controversies within the academia. In this paper, we construct a historical geographic information system describing the evolution of the French network. We use it to compute accessibility measures based on network access and travel durations. We first observe that the network growth indeed achieved the various planning goals in terms of functional accessibility. We then present further evidences that the “structuring effect” of the train network on cities demographics is very limited if not null.
{"title":"Revisiting the structuring effect of transportation infrastructure: An empirical approach with the French railway network from 1860 to 1910","authors":"Christophe Mimeur, François Queyroi, A. Banos, Thomas Thévenin","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1393358","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1393358","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The development of the French railway network was mostly planned in a centralized manner. Despite the multiplication of travel opportunities, the local impact on the demographics is often given as an indirect effect of this spatial transformation. However, this “structuring effect” is still subject to controversies within the academia. In this paper, we construct a historical geographic information system describing the evolution of the French network. We use it to compute accessibility measures based on network access and travel durations. We first observe that the network growth indeed achieved the various planning goals in terms of functional accessibility. We then present further evidences that the “structuring effect” of the train network on cities demographics is very limited if not null.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122721430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-03-09DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2018.1429971
Kerstin Enflo, Anna Missiaia
ABSTRACT This paper provides regional GDP estimates for the 24 Swedish regions (NUTS-3) for the benchmark year 1571 and for 11 ten-year benchmarks for the period 1750–1850. The 1571 estimates are based on tax sources and agricultural statistics. The 1750–1850 estimates are produced following the widely used methodology by Geary and Stark (2002): labour force figures from population censuses at regional level are used to allocate to regions the national estimates of agriculture, industry and services while wages are used to correct for productivity differentials. By connecting our series to the existing ones by Enflo, Henning, and Schön (2014) for the period 1860–2010, we are able to produce the longest set of regional GDP series to date for any single country.
{"title":"Regional GDP estimates for Sweden, 1571–18501","authors":"Kerstin Enflo, Anna Missiaia","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2018.1429971","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2018.1429971","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper provides regional GDP estimates for the 24 Swedish regions (NUTS-3) for the benchmark year 1571 and for 11 ten-year benchmarks for the period 1750–1850. The 1571 estimates are based on tax sources and agricultural statistics. The 1750–1850 estimates are produced following the widely used methodology by Geary and Stark (2002): labour force figures from population censuses at regional level are used to allocate to regions the national estimates of agriculture, industry and services while wages are used to correct for productivity differentials. By connecting our series to the existing ones by Enflo, Henning, and Schön (2014) for the period 1860–2010, we are able to produce the longest set of regional GDP series to date for any single country.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130594629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-02-01DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2018.1543034
Ran Abramitzky, R. Mill, Santiago Pérez
Abstract Linking individuals across historical datasets relies on information such as name and age that is both non-unique and prone to enumeration and transcription errors. These errors make it impossible to find the correct match with certainty. In the first part of the paper, we suggest a fully automated probabilistic method for linking historical datasets that enables researchers to create samples at the frontier of minimizing type I (false positives) and type II (false negatives) errors. The first step guides researchers in the choice of which variables to use for linking. The second step uses the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, a standard tool in statistics, to compute the probability that each two records correspond to the same individual. The third step suggests how to use these estimated probabilities to choose which records to use in the analysis. In the second part of the paper, we apply the method to link historical population censuses in the US and Norway, and use these samples to estimate measures of intergenerational occupational mobility. The estimates using our method are remarkably similar to the ones using IPUMS’, which relies on hand linking to create a training sample. We created an R code and a Stata command that implement this method.
{"title":"Linking individuals across historical sources: A fully automated approach*","authors":"Ran Abramitzky, R. Mill, Santiago Pérez","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2018.1543034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2018.1543034","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Linking individuals across historical datasets relies on information such as name and age that is both non-unique and prone to enumeration and transcription errors. These errors make it impossible to find the correct match with certainty. In the first part of the paper, we suggest a fully automated probabilistic method for linking historical datasets that enables researchers to create samples at the frontier of minimizing type I (false positives) and type II (false negatives) errors. The first step guides researchers in the choice of which variables to use for linking. The second step uses the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, a standard tool in statistics, to compute the probability that each two records correspond to the same individual. The third step suggests how to use these estimated probabilities to choose which records to use in the analysis. In the second part of the paper, we apply the method to link historical population censuses in the US and Norway, and use these samples to estimate measures of intergenerational occupational mobility. The estimates using our method are remarkably similar to the ones using IPUMS’, which relies on hand linking to create a training sample. We created an R code and a Stata command that implement this method.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132705136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-01-02DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1393360
T. Jaworski, G. Niemesh
ABSTRACT Seminal work by Goldin and Margo (1992) used the first available microdata samples of the United States decennial census to document the narrowing of the wage structure between 1940 and 1960, a pattern they refer to as the “Great Compression.” We revisit their findings using newly available, substantially enlarged samples of the decennial censuses covering this period. Our findings largely replicate the patterns initially reported by Goldin and Margo. However, differences emerge when estimating rates of return to education and experience for specific groups and in a decomposition exercise. A second goal is to indicate directions for future research that might benefit from the use of the complete count census data.
{"title":"Revisiting the Great Compression: Wage inequality in the United States, 1940–1960","authors":"T. Jaworski, G. Niemesh","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1393360","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1393360","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Seminal work by Goldin and Margo (1992) used the first available microdata samples of the United States decennial census to document the narrowing of the wage structure between 1940 and 1960, a pattern they refer to as the “Great Compression.” We revisit their findings using newly available, substantially enlarged samples of the decennial censuses covering this period. Our findings largely replicate the patterns initially reported by Goldin and Margo. However, differences emerge when estimating rates of return to education and experience for specific groups and in a decomposition exercise. A second goal is to indicate directions for future research that might benefit from the use of the complete count census data.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"306 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123092590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-01-02DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1408440
M. Baker
ABSTRACT During the U.S. Civil War surgeons performed a vast number of surgeries. Whether surgery increased wounded soldiers’ chances of survival has been debated ever since. I analyze a unique observational data set gathered by Dr. Edmund Andrews, a surgeon with the 1st Illinois Light Artillery. I use Dr. Andrews’s data, model selection tools, and doubly robust estimation methods to estimate treatment effects from surgery. I find that surgery increased wounded soldiers’ chances of survival by 0.09–0.16, depending on the specific model of surgical procedure.
{"title":"Was Civil War surgery effective?","authors":"M. Baker","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1408440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1408440","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT During the U.S. Civil War surgeons performed a vast number of surgeries. Whether surgery increased wounded soldiers’ chances of survival has been debated ever since. I analyze a unique observational data set gathered by Dr. Edmund Andrews, a surgeon with the 1st Illinois Light Artillery. I use Dr. Andrews’s data, model selection tools, and doubly robust estimation methods to estimate treatment effects from surgery. I find that surgery increased wounded soldiers’ chances of survival by 0.09–0.16, depending on the specific model of surgical procedure.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"150 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124188423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-01-02DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1393359
M. Szołtysek, R. Poniat, Siegfried Gruber
ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the extent and nature of age-misreporting in the Mosaic data, currently one of the largest historical census microdata infrastructures for continental Europe. We use demographic measures known as the age heaping indexes to explore regional, periodic and sex-specific patterns of age misreporting across 115 Mosaic regional datafiles, from Catalonia to Moscow, during Europe's demographic ancien régime and thereafter. The paper's second significant contribution is the comparison of Mosaic-based results to those derived from two other big census data projects—IPUMS and NAPP. Beyond this exploratory data analysis, we also investigate possible sources of variation in age heaping across Mosaic data by examining how it relates to variability in socioeconomic, institutional, and environmental conditions. Overall, our systematic inquiry into quality of age reporting in Mosaic consolidates the project's potentially transformative role in comparative historical family demography and suggests some avenues for future research.
{"title":"Age heaping patterns in Mosaic data","authors":"M. Szołtysek, R. Poniat, Siegfried Gruber","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1393359","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1393359","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the extent and nature of age-misreporting in the Mosaic data, currently one of the largest historical census microdata infrastructures for continental Europe. We use demographic measures known as the age heaping indexes to explore regional, periodic and sex-specific patterns of age misreporting across 115 Mosaic regional datafiles, from Catalonia to Moscow, during Europe's demographic ancien régime and thereafter. The paper's second significant contribution is the comparison of Mosaic-based results to those derived from two other big census data projects—IPUMS and NAPP. Beyond this exploratory data analysis, we also investigate possible sources of variation in age heaping across Mosaic data by examining how it relates to variability in socioeconomic, institutional, and environmental conditions. Overall, our systematic inquiry into quality of age reporting in Mosaic consolidates the project's potentially transformative role in comparative historical family demography and suggests some avenues for future research.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"24 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128447664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-01-02DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1393357
S. Carson
ABSTRACT When traditional methods for measuring economic welfare are scarce or unreliable, heights and BMIs are now well-accepted measurements that represent biological conditions during economic development. Weight, after controlling for height, is an additional measure for current net nutrition. Little is known about how weights varied among Mexicans living in the nineteenth century American West. Between 1870 and 1920, average Mexican weight was low and remained constant. Mexican farmers had the heaviest weights, and unskilled worker weights were low. Weight of Mexican-born individuals were higher than Mexicans born in the United States at low weights but lower at high weights. For combined characteristics, weight varied the most with age, an uncontrollable characteristic, indicating that nineteenth century Mexican current net nutrition varied the most with factors over which they had no control.
{"title":"The weight of nineteenth century Mexicans in the Western United States","authors":"S. Carson","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1393357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1393357","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT When traditional methods for measuring economic welfare are scarce or unreliable, heights and BMIs are now well-accepted measurements that represent biological conditions during economic development. Weight, after controlling for height, is an additional measure for current net nutrition. Little is known about how weights varied among Mexicans living in the nineteenth century American West. Between 1870 and 1920, average Mexican weight was low and remained constant. Mexican farmers had the heaviest weights, and unskilled worker weights were low. Weight of Mexican-born individuals were higher than Mexicans born in the United States at low weights but lower at high weights. For combined characteristics, weight varied the most with age, an uncontrollable characteristic, indicating that nineteenth century Mexican current net nutrition varied the most with factors over which they had no control.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130411393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-10-02DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1391605
{"title":"End of volume editorial board","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1391605","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1391605","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116621783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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