Pub Date : 2017-08-31DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1361879
R. Franzosi
ABSTRACT Is a third passage to the past possible, beyond Elton's and Fogel's two roads of narrative history and scientific/quantitative history? One that would combine narrative history's focus on the event, on individuals and their actions, at a particular time and place, to scientific/quantitative history's emphasis on explicit behavioral models based on social-science theories? That is the question this article addresses. It illustrates a computer-assisted methodology for the study of narrative—quantitative narrative analysis (QNA)—that does just that. Based on the 5 Ws + H of narrative—Who, What, When, Where, Why, and How—QNA quantifies events without losing the event itself, without losing people behind numbers, diachronic time behind synchronic statistical coefficients. When used in conjunction with dynamic and interactive data visualization tools (and new natural language processing tools), QNA may provide a third unforeseen road to the past.
{"title":"A third road to the past? Historical scholarship in the age of big data","authors":"R. Franzosi","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1361879","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1361879","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Is a third passage to the past possible, beyond Elton's and Fogel's two roads of narrative history and scientific/quantitative history? One that would combine narrative history's focus on the event, on individuals and their actions, at a particular time and place, to scientific/quantitative history's emphasis on explicit behavioral models based on social-science theories? That is the question this article addresses. It illustrates a computer-assisted methodology for the study of narrative—quantitative narrative analysis (QNA)—that does just that. Based on the 5 Ws + H of narrative—Who, What, When, Where, Why, and How—QNA quantifies events without losing the event itself, without losing people behind numbers, diachronic time behind synchronic statistical coefficients. When used in conjunction with dynamic and interactive data visualization tools (and new natural language processing tools), QNA may provide a third unforeseen road to the past.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134054228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-08-02DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1355764
S. Ronsse, Samuel Standaert
ABSTRACT Economic historians that study long-term changes during the nineteenth and twentieth century are fundamentally restricted by the availability of qualitative data. As a result, researchers are forced to either impute missing data, or otherwise combine datasets in some way. In this article, we demonstrate the versatility of state-space models in addressing these problems. Not only do they enable us to compose large data series of high quality, they also provide a clear estimate of how reliable this data is, allowing any subsequent analyses to take this reliability into account. We illustrate the advantages of a state-space model using the population of Belgian municipalities as a case study. By combining growth and level data, we are able to compute yearly population statistics of over 2600 municipalities from 1880 to 1970.
{"title":"Combining growth and level data: An estimation of the population of Belgian municipalities between 1880 and 1970","authors":"S. Ronsse, Samuel Standaert","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1355764","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1355764","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Economic historians that study long-term changes during the nineteenth and twentieth century are fundamentally restricted by the availability of qualitative data. As a result, researchers are forced to either impute missing data, or otherwise combine datasets in some way. In this article, we demonstrate the versatility of state-space models in addressing these problems. Not only do they enable us to compose large data series of high quality, they also provide a clear estimate of how reliable this data is, allowing any subsequent analyses to take this reliability into account. We illustrate the advantages of a state-space model using the population of Belgian municipalities as a case study. By combining growth and level data, we are able to compute yearly population statistics of over 2600 municipalities from 1880 to 1970.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115324776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-07-25DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1347075
M. Tremblay
ABSTRACT This study presents a new method to measure the depth of ancestral roots in a population. This method sheds light on the migratory movements that led to present-day population distribution across space. The method was applied to a dataset of 5,100 ascending genealogies from 17 regions of the province of Quebec (Canada). Dates of marriage of the earliest ancestors married in the same region as their descendants were used to measure the age of individual ancestral roots. The average regional ages vary between 16 and 157 years, while some individual roots reach as far back as 300 years in the same region. The proposed method can be useful for assessing how deeply rooted a contemporary population is at a local, regional, or other geographical level.
{"title":"The measurement of ancestral roots with genealogical data","authors":"M. Tremblay","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1347075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1347075","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study presents a new method to measure the depth of ancestral roots in a population. This method sheds light on the migratory movements that led to present-day population distribution across space. The method was applied to a dataset of 5,100 ascending genealogies from 17 regions of the province of Quebec (Canada). Dates of marriage of the earliest ancestors married in the same region as their descendants were used to measure the age of individual ancestral roots. The average regional ages vary between 16 and 157 years, while some individual roots reach as far back as 300 years in the same region. The proposed method can be useful for assessing how deeply rooted a contemporary population is at a local, regional, or other geographical level.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131541883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-07-17DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1338977
J. Vallin, D. Jasilionis, F. Meslé
ABSTRACT After the time of the Great Duchy of Lithuania and that of their inclusion to Russian Empire, the three Baltic countries got their first independence after WWI, but WWII forced them to enter the Soviet Union for almost five decades before getting their second independence and resuming with market economy, to finally join the European Union. Such strong historical changes caused major impacts (either positive or negative) on the implementation of the health transition in the region, quite interesting to document, but they also produced dramatic changes in the quality and the accuracy of information required to compute mortality indicators. The aim of this article is to briefly summarize existing knowledge on mortality in the Baltic region for the past two centuries, but focusing more precisely on the consequences of getting in and then getting out of the Soviet system in terms of health and survival.
{"title":"Does a turbulent history lead to turbulent life expectancy trends? Evidence from the Baltic States","authors":"J. Vallin, D. Jasilionis, F. Meslé","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1338977","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1338977","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT After the time of the Great Duchy of Lithuania and that of their inclusion to Russian Empire, the three Baltic countries got their first independence after WWI, but WWII forced them to enter the Soviet Union for almost five decades before getting their second independence and resuming with market economy, to finally join the European Union. Such strong historical changes caused major impacts (either positive or negative) on the implementation of the health transition in the region, quite interesting to document, but they also produced dramatic changes in the quality and the accuracy of information required to compute mortality indicators. The aim of this article is to briefly summarize existing knowledge on mortality in the Baltic region for the past two centuries, but focusing more precisely on the consequences of getting in and then getting out of the Soviet system in terms of health and survival.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"1993 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131009529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-07-03DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1320616
Andrew McKenzie-McHarg, R. Fredheim
ABSTRACT In view of the negative connotations associated with conspiracy theories, what have been the effects of the term's entry into popular vocabulary in the second half of the twentieth century? Has the ascendancy of the term “conspiracy theory” been correlated with a reluctance to allege conspiracy? In this article, the authors use Hansard, the record of British parliamentary debates, as a source of empirical data in demonstrating a significant and steady reduction in the number of conspiracy claims advanced in parliament; a pattern consistent with the broader marginalization of conspiracy rhetoric. This trend was reinforced by a trope that established itself in the 1980s and juxtaposed “conspiracies” with “cock-ups.” The British expression “cock-up” denotes a blunder or act of incompetence. In the second part of this article, the authors argue that the preference for “cock-up theories” over “conspiracy theories” reflects how a policy geared towards privatization and deregulation tended to characterize government action in terms of incompetence, and not of malfeasance.
{"title":"Cock-ups and slap-downs: A quantitative analysis of conspiracy rhetoric in the British Parliament 1916–20151","authors":"Andrew McKenzie-McHarg, R. Fredheim","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1320616","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1320616","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In view of the negative connotations associated with conspiracy theories, what have been the effects of the term's entry into popular vocabulary in the second half of the twentieth century? Has the ascendancy of the term “conspiracy theory” been correlated with a reluctance to allege conspiracy? In this article, the authors use Hansard, the record of British parliamentary debates, as a source of empirical data in demonstrating a significant and steady reduction in the number of conspiracy claims advanced in parliament; a pattern consistent with the broader marginalization of conspiracy rhetoric. This trend was reinforced by a trope that established itself in the 1980s and juxtaposed “conspiracies” with “cock-ups.” The British expression “cock-up” denotes a blunder or act of incompetence. In the second part of this article, the authors argue that the preference for “cock-up theories” over “conspiracy theories” reflects how a policy geared towards privatization and deregulation tended to characterize government action in terms of incompetence, and not of malfeasance.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129298900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-06-02DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1326861
Vincent J. Geloso, Mike Hinton, Vadim Kufenko
ABSTRACT New TFP estimates drawn from the neglected census of 1831 for Lower Canada are used to test the controversial (but still dominant) traditional “poor French farmers” explanation for a prolonged economic crisis. The new evidence shows that French-speaking areas were equally as productive as English-speaking areas, something that upturns the established consensus and reinforces the minority viewpoint that culture had little to do with the crisis. Using a broad range of controls, the researchers find that this conclusion is robust and that other variables such as settlement recency, environment, and economic structure were much more significant determinants of TFP. These results warrant the abandonment of the cultural explanation and a shift toward other explanatory channels.
{"title":"The equally “bad” French and English farmers of Quebec: New TFP measures from the 1831 census","authors":"Vincent J. Geloso, Mike Hinton, Vadim Kufenko","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1326861","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1326861","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT New TFP estimates drawn from the neglected census of 1831 for Lower Canada are used to test the controversial (but still dominant) traditional “poor French farmers” explanation for a prolonged economic crisis. The new evidence shows that French-speaking areas were equally as productive as English-speaking areas, something that upturns the established consensus and reinforces the minority viewpoint that culture had little to do with the crisis. Using a broad range of controls, the researchers find that this conclusion is robust and that other variables such as settlement recency, environment, and economic structure were much more significant determinants of TFP. These results warrant the abandonment of the cultural explanation and a shift toward other explanatory channels.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130300150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACTIn view of the negative connotations associated with conspiracy theories, what have been the effects of the term's entry into popular vocabulary in the second half of the twentieth century? Has the ascendancy of the term “conspiracy theory” been correlated with a reluctance to allege conspiracy? In this article, the authors use Hansard, the record of British parliamentary debates, as a source of empirical data in demonstrating a significant and steady reduction in the number of conspiracy claims advanced in parliament; a pattern consistent with the broader marginalization of conspiracy rhetoric. This trend was reinforced by a trope that established itself in the 1980s and juxtaposed “conspiracies” with “cock-ups.” The British expression “cock-up” denotes a blunder or act of incompetence. In the second part of this article, the authors argue that the preference for “cock-up theories” over “conspiracy theories” reflects how a policy geared towards privatization and deregulation tended to characteriz...
{"title":"Cock-ups and slap-downs: A quantitative analysis of conspiracy rhetoric in the British Parliament 1916–2015","authors":"Andrew McKenzie-McHarg, R. Fredheim","doi":"10.17863/CAM.12804","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.12804","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTIn view of the negative connotations associated with conspiracy theories, what have been the effects of the term's entry into popular vocabulary in the second half of the twentieth century? Has the ascendancy of the term “conspiracy theory” been correlated with a reluctance to allege conspiracy? In this article, the authors use Hansard, the record of British parliamentary debates, as a source of empirical data in demonstrating a significant and steady reduction in the number of conspiracy claims advanced in parliament; a pattern consistent with the broader marginalization of conspiracy rhetoric. This trend was reinforced by a trope that established itself in the 1980s and juxtaposed “conspiracies” with “cock-ups.” The British expression “cock-up” denotes a blunder or act of incompetence. In the second part of this article, the authors argue that the preference for “cock-up theories” over “conspiracy theories” reflects how a policy geared towards privatization and deregulation tended to characteriz...","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123602747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-04-22DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1319773
S. Wegge, T. Anbinder, C. Ó Gráda
ABSTRACT A new dataset created from the first 18,000 savings accounts opened (from 1850 to 1858) at the Emigrant Industrial Savings Bank in New York City is described. The bank was founded by Irish Americans, and most of its depositors in its first decade of operations were recent Irish immigrants. The data offer a unique window on both savings behavior by the poor and not-so-poor in antebellum New York and on how emigrants who came primarily from rural parts of Ireland adapted to urban life. They also contain much that is new on the regional origins of mid-nineteenth century Irish immigrants and on their settlement patterns in New York.
{"title":"Immigrants and savers: A rich new database on the Irish in 1850s New York","authors":"S. Wegge, T. Anbinder, C. Ó Gráda","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1319773","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1319773","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT A new dataset created from the first 18,000 savings accounts opened (from 1850 to 1858) at the Emigrant Industrial Savings Bank in New York City is described. The bank was founded by Irish Americans, and most of its depositors in its first decade of operations were recent Irish immigrants. The data offer a unique window on both savings behavior by the poor and not-so-poor in antebellum New York and on how emigrants who came primarily from rural parts of Ireland adapted to urban life. They also contain much that is new on the regional origins of mid-nineteenth century Irish immigrants and on their settlement patterns in New York.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124013722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-03-13DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1288598
Catherine G. Massey
ABSTRACT This article evaluates linkage quality achieved by various record linkage techniques used in historical demography. The author creates benchmark, or truth, data by linking the 2005 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Social Security Administration's numeric identification system by social security number. By comparing simulated linkages to the benchmark data, she examines the value added (in terms of number and quality of links) from incorporating text-string comparators, adjusting age, and using a probabilistic matching algorithm. She finds that text-string comparators and probabilistic approaches are useful for increasing the linkage rate, but use of text-string comparators may decrease accuracy in some cases. Overall, probabilistic matching offers the best balance between linkage rates and accuracy.
{"title":"Playing with matches: An assessment of accuracy in linked historical data","authors":"Catherine G. Massey","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2017.1288598","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2017.1288598","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article evaluates linkage quality achieved by various record linkage techniques used in historical demography. The author creates benchmark, or truth, data by linking the 2005 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Social Security Administration's numeric identification system by social security number. By comparing simulated linkages to the benchmark data, she examines the value added (in terms of number and quality of links) from incorporating text-string comparators, adjusting age, and using a probabilistic matching algorithm. She finds that text-string comparators and probabilistic approaches are useful for increasing the linkage rate, but use of text-string comparators may decrease accuracy in some cases. Overall, probabilistic matching offers the best balance between linkage rates and accuracy.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133552031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-01-17DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2016.1237862
K. Abildgren
ABSTRACT This article constructs long-span time series indices on wages in Denmark and explores the growth in living standards in the pre-industrial era. There were several persistent upward and downward trends in real annual earnings from 1500 to 1820, but no clear upward long-term trend. This finding seems hard to reconcile with Maddison's figure for the average annual growth in real GDP per capita in Denmark (0.17%) over the same period. This is the case, even if the growth rate in pre-industrial annual earnings is underestimated by 0.05%–0.06% per annum due to an increased number of working days.
{"title":"Trends in real wages in Denmark since the Late Middle Ages","authors":"K. Abildgren","doi":"10.1080/01615440.2016.1237862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2016.1237862","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article constructs long-span time series indices on wages in Denmark and explores the growth in living standards in the pre-industrial era. There were several persistent upward and downward trends in real annual earnings from 1500 to 1820, but no clear upward long-term trend. This finding seems hard to reconcile with Maddison's figure for the average annual growth in real GDP per capita in Denmark (0.17%) over the same period. This is the case, even if the growth rate in pre-industrial annual earnings is underestimated by 0.05%–0.06% per annum due to an increased number of working days.","PeriodicalId":154465,"journal":{"name":"Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History","volume":"150 6-8","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114047189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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