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The good and evil of algos: Investment-to-price sensitivity and the learning hypothesis 算法的善与恶:投资对价格的敏感性和学习假设
IF 7.2 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102834
Nihad Aliyev , Fariz Huseynov , Khaladdin Rzayev
We investigate how firm managers’ learning from share prices is influenced by two different types of algorithmic trading (AT) activities in their shares. We find that liquidity-supplying AT enhances managers’ ability to learn from share prices by encouraging information acquisition in markets, leading to increased investment sensitivity to share prices. However, liquidity-demanding AT impairs this learning process by discouraging information acquisition. Firm operating performance correspondingly improves with liquidity-supplying AT and deteriorates with liquidity-demanding AT. To establish causality, we use NYSE’s Autoquote implementation as a source of exogenous variation in AT. Our findings demonstrate AT’s significant impact on real economic outcomes.
我们研究了公司经理从股价中学习如何受到两种不同类型的算法交易(AT)活动的影响。我们发现,流动性供给的AT通过鼓励市场上的信息获取,增强了经理人从股价中学习的能力,从而增加了对股价的投资敏感性。然而,流动性要求的AT阻碍了信息获取,从而损害了这一学习过程。企业经营绩效在提供流动性的条件下相应提高,在需要流动性的条件下相应恶化。为了建立因果关系,我们使用纽约证券交易所的自动报价实现作为AT的外生变化的来源。我们的研究结果表明,AT对实际经济结果有重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Common institutional investors and board representation in rival firms 共同的机构投资者和竞争对手公司的董事会代表
IF 7.2 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102836
Heng Geng , Harald Hau , Roni Michaely , Binh Hoang Nguyen
The large increase in common institutional ownership has raised legitimate antitrust concerns. While the exact channel by which common institutional shareholders might influence firm policy remains unclear, a prominent potential mechanism is corporate board representation. Using hand-collected data on shareholders' board representation, we show that instances of institutional investors simultaneously holding board positions in rival companies are exceedingly rare and do not account for the positive correlation between common institutional ownership and firm-pair profitability. Our findings suggest that board representation by institutional investors is unlikely to represent an empirically potent channel of influence on corporate policy.
共同机构所有权的大幅增加引发了合理的反垄断担忧。虽然普通机构股东可能影响公司政策的确切渠道尚不清楚,但一个突出的潜在机制是公司董事会代表。通过使用手工收集的股东董事会代表数据,我们发现机构投资者同时持有竞争对手公司董事会职位的情况非常罕见,并且不能解释共同机构所有权与公司对盈利能力之间的正相关关系。我们的研究结果表明,机构投资者的董事会代表权不太可能代表影响公司政策的经验有效渠道。
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引用次数: 0
Machine Learning for the Unlisted: Enhancing MSME Default Prediction with Public Market Signals 非上市企业的机器学习:利用公开市场信号增强中小微企业违约预测
IF 7.2 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102830
Alessandro Bitetto , Stefano Filomeni , Michele Modina
This paper contributes to the growing body of research on private firms, particularly private firm accounting. We explore the economic factors that drive improvements in the default prediction of unlisted private firms using peers’ market-based information. Specifically, we examine how the market-based default probability of a peer firm can provide valuable insights into the often noisy accounting data of private firms. Our analysis delves deeply into these economic issues to uncover essential insights. To address our research question, we utilize a granular proprietary dataset of 10,136 Italian micro-, small-, and mid-sized enterprises (MSMEs) that are required to disclose their financial statements publicly. We propose a novel public–private firm mapping approach to investigate whether incorporating peers’ market-based information improves the accuracy of default predictions for private unlisted firms. Our mapping approach matches the market information of listed firms with private firms through a data-driven clustering technique using Neural Network Autoencoder. This method enables us to link the Merton Probability of Default (PD) of public peers to the corresponding private firms within the same cluster. We then apply five statistical techniques – linear models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbours and random forests – to predict corporate default among private firms, comparing model performance with and without the inclusion of Merton’s PD estimated using peers’ market-based information. To assess the contribution of each predictor, we employ Shapley values. Our results demonstrate a significant improvement in default prediction for unlisted private firms when incorporating peers’ market-based information, confirming that the noisy accounting data of private firms alone hinders accurate default prediction. Furthermore, our findings highlight the importance for banks to broaden the scope of information used in credit risk assessments of private firms. These results have important policy implications for financial institutions and policymakers, providing a tool to mitigate the challenges posed by the noisy information disclosure of MSMEs while ensuring more accurate credit risk assessments.
本文对私营企业,特别是私营企业会计的研究做出了贡献。我们利用同行的市场信息,探讨推动非上市私营企业违约预测改善的经济因素。具体来说,我们研究了同行公司基于市场的违约概率如何为私营公司经常嘈杂的会计数据提供有价值的见解。我们的分析深入研究了这些经济问题,以揭示重要的见解。为了解决我们的研究问题,我们利用了10136家意大利微型、小型和中型企业(MSMEs)的颗粒专有数据集,这些企业需要公开披露其财务报表。我们提出了一种新的公私公司映射方法,以研究纳入同行市场信息是否提高了私营非上市公司违约预测的准确性。我们的映射方法通过使用神经网络自动编码器的数据驱动聚类技术来匹配上市公司与私营公司的市场信息。这种方法使我们能够将公共同行的默顿违约概率(PD)与同一集群内相应的私营企业联系起来。然后,我们应用五种统计技术——线性模型、多元自适应样条回归、支持向量机、k近邻和随机森林——来预测私营企业的企业违约,比较模型在包含默顿PD和不包含默顿PD的情况下的表现,这些PD是利用同行的市场信息估计的。为了评估每个预测因子的贡献,我们采用沙普利值。我们的研究结果表明,当纳入同行的市场信息时,非上市私营企业的违约预测显著改善,证实了私营企业的嘈杂会计数据本身阻碍了准确的违约预测。此外,我们的研究结果强调了银行在私营企业信用风险评估中扩大信息范围的重要性。这些结果对金融机构和政策制定者具有重要的政策意义,为减轻中小微企业信息披露带来的挑战提供了工具,同时确保更准确的信用风险评估。
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引用次数: 0
A primer on oracle economics oracle经济学入门
IF 7.2 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102800
Lin William Cong , Liam Fox , Siguang Li , Luofeng Zhou
Oracle nodes enable smart contracts to access off-chain and cross-chain data, thus bridging information among digital networks and with the real economy. However, reliance on external input creates security and reliability risks in information aggregation and transfer. We describe the general oracle problem, introduce the Oracle Trilemma – highlighting the trade-offs between scalability, decentralization, and truthfulness – and discuss relevant economic issues concerning the role of oracles in applications such as DeFi, supply chain management, gaming, and prediction markets. In particular, we survey off-chain reporting, off-equilibrium alerting, and dynamic incentive design as promising approaches to resolving the trilemma. We further list oracle vulnerabilities and evaluate oracle sustainability through staking and tokenomics programs. Finally, we highlight empirical studies on how oracle integration affects DeFi adoption, token valuation, liquidity, and system risks. We conclude by presenting emerging trends and suggesting open research questions.
Oracle节点使智能合约能够访问链下和跨链数据,从而在数字网络和实体经济之间架起信息的桥梁。然而,对外部输入的依赖会在信息聚合和传递中产生安全和可靠性风险。我们描述了一般的oracle问题,介绍了oracle三难困境——突出了可扩展性、去中心化和真实性之间的权衡——并讨论了与oracle在DeFi、供应链管理、游戏和预测市场等应用程序中的作用相关的经济问题。特别是,我们调查了链下报告,非均衡警报和动态激励设计作为解决三难困境的有希望的方法。我们进一步列出了oracle的漏洞,并通过赌注和标记经济学程序评估oracle的可持续性。最后,我们重点介绍了oracle集成如何影响DeFi采用、代币估值、流动性和系统风险的实证研究。最后,我们提出了新兴趋势,并提出了开放的研究问题。
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引用次数: 0
Does government ownership differently impact expected left-tail and volatility risk of bank stock? Evidence from options market 政府持股对银行股预期左尾和波动风险的影响是否不同?来自期权市场的证据
IF 7.2 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102832
Pranjal Srivastava , Sumit Saurav , Abinash Mishra
We examine the differences in the options implied left-tail risk and volatility of government-owned and private banks in India. We show that left-tail risk and the cost of insurance for protection against it are high for private banks as compared to government-owned banks, despite their superior asset quality. The COVID-19 crisis, an exogenous shock to systematic risk, increased the left-tail risk more for private banks. Furthermore, the effect of government ownership on left-tail risk is more significant for smaller banks compared to larger banks. Contrary to our left-tail risk result, we find that government-owned banks have higher near-the-money options implied volatility than private banks. Our findings suggest that while government ownership mitigates expected downside risk, it also leads to higher expected volatility due to riskier lending policies and uncertainties about capital infusions.
我们研究了印度国有银行和私营银行在隐含左尾风险和波动性的期权上的差异。我们表明,与国有银行相比,私营银行的左尾风险和防范左尾风险的保险成本都很高,尽管它们的资产质量更好。新冠肺炎危机作为系统性风险的外生冲击,进一步加大了民营银行的左尾风险。此外,与大银行相比,政府所有权对小银行左尾风险的影响更为显著。与我们的左尾风险结果相反,我们发现国有银行的近货币期权隐含波动率高于私营银行。我们的研究结果表明,虽然政府所有权减轻了预期的下行风险,但由于贷款政策风险更高和资本注入的不确定性,它也导致了更高的预期波动性。
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引用次数: 0
Automation cost flexibility and firm value 自动化成本灵活性和公司价值
IF 7.2 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102828
Barıs Ince , Cansu Iskenderoglu
This paper documents that industrial robots enhance firms’ ability to reduce operating costs, especially during periods of declining sales. Building on this, we propose a firm-level measure of automation cost flexibility (ACF), which quantifies a firm’s capacity to reduce operating costs through automation. Using this measure, we find that firms with greater ACF exhibit higher firm values. To address endogeneity concerns and strengthen the interpretation of our results, we employ: (i) a difference-in-differences specification with a matching algorithm, and (ii) exploit the 2011 Thailand hard drive crisis as an exogenous shock. The paper further reveals that the positive impact of ACF is more pronounced for firms in highly competitive industries, those facing significant competitive threats, industries with high strategic interactions, and smaller firms. This suggests that cost flexibility encompasses a strategic dimension.
本文证明了工业机器人可以提高企业降低运营成本的能力,尤其是在销售下降的时期。在此基础上,我们提出了一个企业层面的自动化成本灵活性(ACF)度量,它量化了企业通过自动化降低运营成本的能力。利用这一度量,我们发现ACF越大的企业表现出更高的企业价值。为了解决内生性问题并加强对我们结果的解释,我们采用:(i)带有匹配算法的差中差规范,以及(ii)利用2011年泰国硬盘危机作为外生冲击。研究进一步发现,在竞争激烈的行业、面临重大竞争威胁的行业、战略互动程度高的行业和规模较小的企业中,ACF的积极影响更为明显。这表明成本灵活性包含一个战略层面。
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引用次数: 0
Bitcoin price volatility: Effects of retail traders, illegal users, and sentiment 比特币价格波动:零售交易者、非法用户和市场情绪的影响
IF 7.2 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102837
Kose John , Jingrui Li
In this paper, we study the determinants of Bitcoin volatility. We estimate and decompose Bitcoin's realized volatility into jump volatility and continuous volatility components. We find that innovations in Robinhood retail trading are positively related to the continuous component of Bitcoin's volatility. Specifically, the innovations in Robinhood retail trading predict an increase in future ten-day continuous volatility. The innovations in the (anonymous) trading volume of Monero are also positively related to the jump component in Bitcoin's volatility. Specifically, the innovations in Monero trading volume predict an increase in average jump volatility over the next five days. Our results suggest that retail trading positively influences the continuous component of Bitcoin volatility, while the preference for transaction anonymity positively affects the jump component of Bitcoin volatility.
在本文中,我们研究了比特币波动的决定因素。我们估计并分解比特币的已实现波动率为跳跃波动率和连续波动率两个分量。我们发现罗宾汉零售交易的创新与比特币波动性的连续成分呈正相关。具体来说,罗宾汉零售交易的创新预测了未来10天连续波动的增加。门罗币(匿名)交易量的创新也与比特币波动性的跳跃部分呈正相关。具体来说,门罗币交易量的创新预测了未来五天平均跳涨波动的增加。我们的研究结果表明,零售交易正向影响比特币波动率的连续分量,而交易匿名偏好正向影响比特币波动率的跳跃分量。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate mergers and acquisitions under lender scrutiny 银行审查下的企业并购
IF 7.2 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102812
Buhui Qiu , Teng Wang
This paper examines corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) outcomes under lender scrutiny. Using the unique shocks of U.S. supervisory stress testing, we find that firms under increased lender scrutiny after their relationship banks fail stress tests engage in fewer but higher-quality M&A deals. Evidence from comprehensive supervisory data reveals improved credit quality for newly originated M&A-related loans under enhanced lender scrutiny. This improvement is further evident in positive stock return reactions to M&A deals financed by loans subject to enhanced lender scrutiny. As companies engage in fewer but higher-quality deals, they also experience higher returns on assets. Our findings highlight the importance of lender scrutiny in corporate M&A activities.
本文研究了贷款人审查下的公司并购(M&;A)结果。利用美国监管压力测试的独特冲击,我们发现,在其关系银行未能通过压力测试后,受到更多贷款人审查的公司参与了更少但更高质量的并购交易。来自综合监管数据的证据显示,在贷款人加强审查的情况下,新发放的并购a类贷款的信贷质量有所提高。这一改善进一步体现在并购交易的正面股票回报反应上,这些交易是由接受加强贷款机构审查的贷款融资的。随着企业参与的交易数量减少但质量提高,它们也会获得更高的资产回报率。我们的研究结果强调了贷款人审查在企业并购活动中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Political connections and media bias: Evidence from China 政治关系和媒体偏见:来自中国的证据
IF 7.2 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102835
Denis Schweizer , Xinjie Wang , Ge Wu , Aoran Zhang
This paper examines how political connections shape media bias and contribute to regulatory noncompliance in China's capital markets. Using a large sample of news articles on publicly listed non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), we find that politically connected firms receive significantly more favorable media coverage than their unconnected peers. A difference-in-differences analysis exploiting a regulatory shock—China's Rule 18 anti-corruption regulation—that forced politically connected directors to resign confirms the link between political ties and biased reporting. Around corporate scandals, politically connected firms face softer media scrutiny, weakening reputational penalties. Critically, we show that this media shielding effect increases the likelihood of repeated regulatory violations. These findings highlight the social costs of the “scandal-covering” role of political connections, which not only distort the information environment but also undermine regulatory deterrence and market discipline.
本文考察了政治关系如何塑造媒体偏见,并导致中国资本市场的监管违规。通过对非国有上市企业(non-国企)新闻报道的大量样本分析,我们发现有政治关系的企业比没有政治关系的企业获得的媒体报道明显更多。一项利用监管冲击——中国的反腐败第18条规定——迫使有政治关系的董事辞职的差异分析证实了政治关系与有偏见的报道之间的联系。在公司丑闻中,有政治关系的公司面临更温和的媒体审查,削弱了声誉惩罚。至关重要的是,我们表明这种媒体屏蔽效应增加了重复违反法规的可能性。这些发现突出了政治关系“掩盖丑闻”作用的社会成本,这不仅扭曲了信息环境,而且破坏了监管威慑和市场纪律。
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引用次数: 0
Does share pledging affect workplace safety? 股权质押会影响工作场所的安全吗?
IF 7.2 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102833
Kenuo Li , Lijuan Zhang
This paper explores the impact of share pledging on workplace safety. Using establishment-level data on workplace safety, we find that firms with executive share pledging exhibit higher workplace injuries/illnesses. Our channel analyses suggest that the higher injury/illness cases in pledging firms are associated with increased employee workloads and poor corporate safety cultures. Further analysis shows that the documented association between share pledging and workplace safety is weaker for firms that have more analyst coverage, face higher levels of pressure from labor unions, and operate in counties that have higher levels of social capital. Conversely, the association is more pronounced when firms meet or just beat analyst earnings forecasts and when CEOs are approaching retirement age. The results are robust to using injury rate as an alternative measure for workplace safety, controlling for accrual-based earnings management and financial constraints, and using firm-level analyses. Overall, our findings suggest a positive association between share pledging and compromised workplace safety, potentially driven by efforts to support short-term stock performance.
本文探讨股权质押对工作场所安全的影响。利用企业层面的工作场所安全数据,我们发现有高管股权承诺的公司表现出更高的工作场所伤害/疾病。我们的渠道分析表明,质押公司中较高的伤害/疾病病例与员工工作量增加和企业安全文化不佳有关。进一步的分析表明,对于有更多分析师报道的公司,面临更高水平的工会压力的公司,以及在社会资本水平较高的县运营的公司,股票质押与工作场所安全之间的文献关联较弱。相反,当公司达到或刚刚超过分析师的盈利预期,以及首席执行官接近退休年龄时,这种关联就更为明显。使用伤害率作为工作场所安全的替代措施,控制基于权责发生制的盈余管理和财务约束,以及使用公司层面的分析,结果是稳健的。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,股票质押与工作场所安全之间存在正相关关系,这可能是由支持短期股票表现的努力所驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Corporate Finance
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