Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip B. Levine, Luke Pardue
This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects declines across many groups of women, including teens, Hispanic women, and college-educated white women. The Great Recession contributed to the decline in the early part of this period, but we are unable to identify any other economic, policy, or social factor that has changed since 2007 that is responsible for much of the decline beyond that. Mechanically, the falling birth rate can be attributed to changes in birth patterns across recent cohorts of women moving through childbearing age. We conjecture that the “shifting priorities” of more recent cohorts, reflecting changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and parenting norms, may be responsible. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.
{"title":"The Puzzle of Falling US Birth Rates since the Great Recession","authors":"Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip B. Levine, Luke Pardue","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.1.151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.1.151","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects declines across many groups of women, including teens, Hispanic women, and college-educated white women. The Great Recession contributed to the decline in the early part of this period, but we are unable to identify any other economic, policy, or social factor that has changed since 2007 that is responsible for much of the decline beyond that. Mechanically, the falling birth rate can be attributed to changes in birth patterns across recent cohorts of women moving through childbearing age. We conjecture that the “shifting priorities” of more recent cohorts, reflecting changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and parenting norms, may be responsible. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We discuss recent trends in agricultural productivity in Africa and highlight how technological progress in agriculture has stagnated on the continent. We briefly review the literature that tries to explain this stagnation through the lens of particular constraints to technology adoption. Ultimately, none of these constraints alone can explain these trends. New research highlights pervasive heterogeneity in the gross and net returns to agricultural technologies across Africa. We argue that this heterogeneity makes the adoption process more challenging, limits the scope of many innovations, and contributes to the stagnation in technology use. We conclude with directions for policy and what we feel are still important, unanswered research questions.
{"title":"Agricultural Technology in Africa","authors":"Tavneet Suri, Christopher Udry","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.1.33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.1.33","url":null,"abstract":"We discuss recent trends in agricultural productivity in Africa and highlight how technological progress in agriculture has stagnated on the continent. We briefly review the literature that tries to explain this stagnation through the lens of particular constraints to technology adoption. Ultimately, none of these constraints alone can explain these trends. New research highlights pervasive heterogeneity in the gross and net returns to agricultural technologies across Africa. We argue that this heterogeneity makes the adoption process more challenging, limits the scope of many innovations, and contributes to the stagnation in technology use. We conclude with directions for policy and what we feel are still important, unanswered research questions.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many African countries are still in the early stages of structural transformation. Typically, as economies move through the structural transformation, activities once conducted within the household are outsourced to the market. This has particular implications for women’s time use. In this paper, we document that current patterns of female time use in home production in several African countries closely resemble historical time use patterns in the Untied States. We highlight two stylized facts about women’s time use in Africa. First, in North Africa, women spend very few hours in market work and female labor force participation overall is extremely low. Second, although extensive margin participation of women is high in sub-Saharan Africa, women tend to work in the market for only a few hours each week, with the rest of their work hours spent in home production. These two facts suggest two different types of constraints that could slow down the reallocation of female time from home to market as economies grow: social norms related to women’s market work, and a lack of infrastructure (e.g., household infrastructure and childcare facilities) to facilitate marketizing home production. We discuss recent empirical evidence related to each set of constraints and highlight new avenues for research.
{"title":"Time Use and Gender in Africa in Times of Structural Transformation","authors":"Taryn Dinkelman, L. Rachel Ngai","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.1.57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.1.57","url":null,"abstract":"Many African countries are still in the early stages of structural transformation. Typically, as economies move through the structural transformation, activities once conducted within the household are outsourced to the market. This has particular implications for women’s time use. In this paper, we document that current patterns of female time use in home production in several African countries closely resemble historical time use patterns in the Untied States. We highlight two stylized facts about women’s time use in Africa. First, in North Africa, women spend very few hours in market work and female labor force participation overall is extremely low. Second, although extensive margin participation of women is high in sub-Saharan Africa, women tend to work in the market for only a few hours each week, with the rest of their work hours spent in home production. These two facts suggest two different types of constraints that could slow down the reallocation of female time from home to market as economies grow: social norms related to women’s market work, and a lack of infrastructure (e.g., household infrastructure and childcare facilities) to facilitate marketizing home production. We discuss recent empirical evidence related to each set of constraints and highlight new avenues for research.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Manufacturing has made an important contribution to raising living standards in many parts of the world. Concerns about premature deindustrialization have made some observers skeptical about the potential for manufacturing to play this role in Africa. But employment in African manufacturing has grown rapidly over the past 20 years. These employment gains have been accompanied by: (i) large increases in the number of small manufacturing firms; (ii) limited employment gains in large firms; and (iii) robust labor productivity growth in Africa’s large firms. Limited employment growth in Africa’s large manufacturing firms is partly a result of the capital intensity of the manufacturing subsectors in which African countries are most engaged—the processing of resources—and partly a result of rising capital intensity in manufacturing. The potential for manufacturing to raise living standards in Africa depends on indirect job creation by large firms through backward and forward linkages and increasing labor productivity in small firms.
{"title":"Labor Productivity Growth and Industrialization in Africa","authors":"Margaret McMillan, Albert Zeufack","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.1.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.1.3","url":null,"abstract":"Manufacturing has made an important contribution to raising living standards in many parts of the world. Concerns about premature deindustrialization have made some observers skeptical about the potential for manufacturing to play this role in Africa. But employment in African manufacturing has grown rapidly over the past 20 years. These employment gains have been accompanied by: (i) large increases in the number of small manufacturing firms; (ii) limited employment gains in large firms; and (iii) robust labor productivity growth in Africa’s large firms. Limited employment growth in Africa’s large manufacturing firms is partly a result of the capital intensity of the manufacturing subsectors in which African countries are most engaged—the processing of resources—and partly a result of rising capital intensity in manufacturing. The potential for manufacturing to raise living standards in Africa depends on indirect job creation by large firms through backward and forward linkages and increasing labor productivity in small firms.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Isaiah Andrews is an exceptionally warm and caring person, a remarkable teacher, a collaborator and mentor, an exemplary contributor to his department and profession, and a brilliant econometrician. In this article, we review Isaiah’s contributions to econometric theory in the context of Isaiah’s receipt of the 2021 John Bates Clark Medal.
{"title":"Isaiah Andrews, 2021 John Bates Clark Medalist","authors":"Anna Mikusheva, Jesse M. Shapiro","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.1.177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.1.177","url":null,"abstract":"Isaiah Andrews is an exceptionally warm and caring person, a remarkable teacher, a collaborator and mentor, an exemplary contributor to his department and profession, and a brilliant econometrician. In this article, we review Isaiah’s contributions to econometric theory in the context of Isaiah’s receipt of the 2021 John Bates Clark Medal.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper focuses on the price of nails since 1695 and the proximate source of changes in those prices. Why nails? They are a basic manufactured product whose form and quality have changed relatively little over the last three centuries, yet the process for producing them has changed dramatically. Accordingly, nails provide a useful prism through which to examine a wide range of economic and technological developments that touch on multiple areas of both micro- and macroeconomics. Several conclusions emerge. First, from the late 1700s to the mid-twentieth century, real nail prices fell by a factor of about 10 relative to overall consumer prices. These declines had important effects on downstream industries, most notably construction. Second, while declining materials prices contribute to reductions in nail prices, the largest proximate source of the decline during this period was multifactor productivity growth in nail manufacturing, highlighting the role of the specialization of labor and reorganization of production processes. Third, the share of nails in GDP dropped back from 0.4 percent of GDP in 1810—comparable to today’s share of household purchases of personal computers—to a de minimis share more recently; accordingly, nails played a bigger role in American life in that earlier period. Finally, real nail prices have increased since the mid-twentieth century, reflecting in part an upturn in materials prices and a shift toward specialty nails in the wake of import competition, though the introduction of nail guns partly offset these increases for the price of installed nails.
{"title":"The Price of Nails Since 1695: A Window into Economic Change","authors":"Daniel E. Sichel","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.1.125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.1.125","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on the price of nails since 1695 and the proximate source of changes in those prices. Why nails? They are a basic manufactured product whose form and quality have changed relatively little over the last three centuries, yet the process for producing them has changed dramatically. Accordingly, nails provide a useful prism through which to examine a wide range of economic and technological developments that touch on multiple areas of both micro- and macroeconomics. Several conclusions emerge. First, from the late 1700s to the mid-twentieth century, real nail prices fell by a factor of about 10 relative to overall consumer prices. These declines had important effects on downstream industries, most notably construction. Second, while declining materials prices contribute to reductions in nail prices, the largest proximate source of the decline during this period was multifactor productivity growth in nail manufacturing, highlighting the role of the specialization of labor and reorganization of production processes. Third, the share of nails in GDP dropped back from 0.4 percent of GDP in 1810—comparable to today’s share of household purchases of personal computers—to a de minimis share more recently; accordingly, nails played a bigger role in American life in that earlier period. Finally, real nail prices have increased since the mid-twentieth century, reflecting in part an upturn in materials prices and a shift toward specialty nails in the wake of import competition, though the introduction of nail guns partly offset these increases for the price of installed nails.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article studies the role of political distortions in driving economic growth and development in Africa. We first discuss how existing theories based on long-run structural factors (e.g., pre-colonial and colonial institutions, or ethnic diversity) may not capture new data patterns in the region, including changes to political regimes, growth patterns, and their variation across regions with similar historical experiences. We then argue that a framework focused on political distortions (i.e., how political incentives impact resource allocation and economic outcomes) may have multiple benefits: it encapsulates many distortions observed in practice, including patronage, variations in contract enforcement and the role of political connections in firm outcomes; it unifies results in Africa and elsewhere; and it leaves a wide scope for policy analysis. We conclude by overviewing reforms that may curb such distortions, including changes to campaign financing rules, bureaucratic reform, free trade agreements, and technology.
{"title":"Political Distortions, State Capture, and Economic Development in Africa","authors":"Nathan Canen, Leonard Wantchekon","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.1.101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.1.101","url":null,"abstract":"This article studies the role of political distortions in driving economic growth and development in Africa. We first discuss how existing theories based on long-run structural factors (e.g., pre-colonial and colonial institutions, or ethnic diversity) may not capture new data patterns in the region, including changes to political regimes, growth patterns, and their variation across regions with similar historical experiences. We then argue that a framework focused on political distortions (i.e., how political incentives impact resource allocation and economic outcomes) may have multiple benefits: it encapsulates many distortions observed in practice, including patronage, variations in contract enforcement and the role of political connections in firm outcomes; it unifies results in Africa and elsewhere; and it leaves a wide scope for policy analysis. We conclude by overviewing reforms that may curb such distortions, including changes to campaign financing rules, bureaucratic reform, free trade agreements, and technology.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Every year, millions of young adults join the labor market in Africa. This paper harmonizes surveys and censuses from 68 low- and middle-income countries to compare their job prospects to those of their counterparts in other low-income regions. We show that employment rates are similar at similar levels of development but that young adults in Africa are less likely to have a salaried job, especially when the size of their cohort is large. Building on existing evidence on the impacts of interventions targeting both the demand and supply sides of the labor market, we discuss policy priorities for boosting the growth of salaried job creation in the region.
{"title":"Young Adults and Labor Markets in Africa","authors":"O. Bandiera, A. Elsayed, A. Smurra, Céline Zipfel","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.1.81","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.1.81","url":null,"abstract":"Every year, millions of young adults join the labor market in Africa. This paper harmonizes surveys and censuses from 68 low- and middle-income countries to compare their job prospects to those of their counterparts in other low-income regions. We show that employment rates are similar at similar levels of development but that young adults in Africa are less likely to have a salaried job, especially when the size of their cohort is large. Building on existing evidence on the impacts of interventions targeting both the demand and supply sides of the labor market, we discuss policy priorities for boosting the growth of salaried job creation in the region.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47927196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A hallmark of every developed nation is the provision of a social safety net-a collection of public programs that deliver aid to the poor. Because of their higher rates of poverty, children are often a major beneficiary of safety net programs. Countries vary considerably in both the amount of safety net aid to children and the design of their programs. The United States provides less aid to families with children as a share of GDP (0.6 percent) than most countries: Among 37 OECD countries, only Turkey provides less, as shown in Figure 1. Countries that provide less aid to families with children have higher rates of child poverty. Among these same 37 countries, only Turkey and Costa Rica have higher child poverty rates than the United States. Why does the United States appear to be such an outlier in terms of the amount of aid it provides to families and child poverty rates? While there are likely multiple reasons, in this paper we focus on one possible explanation: Past emphasis on the negative behavioral effects of safety net programs for families over the benefits of such programs for children.
{"title":"Children and the US Social Safety Net: Balancing Disincentives for Adults and Benefits for Children","authors":"Anna Aizer, Hilary W. Hoynes, A. Lleras-Muney","doi":"10.3386/w29754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29754","url":null,"abstract":"A hallmark of every developed nation is the provision of a social safety net-a collection of public programs that deliver aid to the poor. Because of their higher rates of poverty, children are often a major beneficiary of safety net programs. Countries vary considerably in both the amount of safety net aid to children and the design of their programs. The United States provides less aid to families with children as a share of GDP (0.6 percent) than most countries: Among 37 OECD countries, only Turkey provides less, as shown in Figure 1. Countries that provide less aid to families with children have higher rates of child poverty. Among these same 37 countries, only Turkey and Costa Rica have higher child poverty rates than the United States. Why does the United States appear to be such an outlier in terms of the amount of aid it provides to families and child poverty rates? While there are likely multiple reasons, in this paper we focus on one possible explanation: Past emphasis on the negative behavioral effects of safety net programs for families over the benefits of such programs for children.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43390144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The initial waves of the Covid-19 pandemic disproportionately affected minority racial and ethnic population groups in the United States. Both Black and Hispanic Americans experienced higher infection rates, and in many regions Black Americans also experienced higher death rates. One hypothesis put forward during the early stages of the pandemic is that differences in types of work done by different racial and ethnic groups could account for some of the differences in infection rates. Different jobs have different levels of exposure to the disease, and workers from minority racial and ethnic groups disproportionately work in jobs that require being in close proximity to other people.1 In the early stages of the pandemic, lockdown rules delineated certain industries as “essential,” requiring many of their employees to continue working on site, while many workers in “nonessential” industries were able to work from home. Following the initial lockdown period, workers in nonessential industries saw their businesses reopen on site at different times and to differing degrees across the country. States varied considerably in terms of how closely reopening schedules were tied to infection rates.
{"title":"The Relationship Between Race and Ethnicity, Type of Work, and Covid-19 Infection Rates","authors":"R. Faberman, D. Hartley","doi":"10.21033/ep-2022-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2022-2","url":null,"abstract":"The initial waves of the Covid-19 pandemic disproportionately affected minority racial and ethnic population groups in the United States. Both Black and Hispanic Americans experienced higher infection rates, and in many regions Black Americans also experienced higher death rates. One hypothesis put forward during the early stages of the pandemic is that differences in types of work done by different racial and ethnic groups could account for some of the differences in infection rates. Different jobs have different levels of exposure to the disease, and workers from minority racial and ethnic groups disproportionately work in jobs that require being in close proximity to other people.1 In the early stages of the pandemic, lockdown rules delineated certain industries as “essential,” requiring many of their employees to continue working on site, while many workers in “nonessential” industries were able to work from home. Following the initial lockdown period, workers in nonessential industries saw their businesses reopen on site at different times and to differing degrees across the country. States varied considerably in terms of how closely reopening schedules were tied to infection rates.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87733487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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