Emma LaGuardia, Kristin M. Dziczek, Richard H. Mattoon
State and federal highways are currently funded by a combination of motor fuel taxes (MFTs), general fund transfers, fees, tolls, property taxes, and bond revenues. Of these, state fuel and vehicle taxes comprised 26% of revenues used for U.S. highways, and federal fuel and vehicle taxes made up 15% in 2021, according to data from the U.S. Department of Transportation. The MFT share of funding is declining due to increasing overall fuel economy trends, inflation (since many MFTs—including the federal MFT—are assessed in cents per gallon and not indexed), and recent vehicle miles traveled (VMT) trends—especially during the 2020–21 pandemic years, which saw lower passenger and freight travel. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential not only to accelerate the fuel efficiency of vehicles in use, but also to lead to a sizable population of individual road users who pay no fuel taxes. A recent study estimated that EVs reduce gas tax revenues by $250 million a year (Davis and Sallee, 2019).
州和联邦高速公路目前的资金来源包括汽车燃油税(MFTs)、一般资金转移、费用、通行费、财产税和债券收入。根据美国交通部的数据，到2021年，州燃油税和车辆税占美国高速公路收入的26%，联邦燃油税和车辆税占15%。由于整体燃油经济性趋势、通货膨胀(因为许多MFT——包括联邦MFT——以每加仑美分计算，而没有指数化)以及最近的车辆行驶里程(VMT)趋势(特别是在2020-21年大流行期间，客运和货运旅行减少)，MFT的资金份额正在下降。电动汽车(ev)不仅有可能提高正在使用的车辆的燃油效率，而且还可能导致大量的个人道路使用者不缴纳燃油税。最近的一项研究估计，电动汽车每年减少2.5亿美元的汽油税收入(Davis and Sallee, 2019)。
{"title":"Electric vehicles, motor fuel taxes, and road funding in the Seventh District and beyond","authors":"Emma LaGuardia, Kristin M. Dziczek, Richard H. Mattoon","doi":"10.21033/ep-2023-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2023-2","url":null,"abstract":"State and federal highways are currently funded by a combination of motor fuel taxes (MFTs), general fund transfers, fees, tolls, property taxes, and bond revenues. Of these, state fuel and vehicle taxes comprised 26% of revenues used for U.S. highways, and federal fuel and vehicle taxes made up 15% in 2021, according to data from the U.S. Department of Transportation. The MFT share of funding is declining due to increasing overall fuel economy trends, inflation (since many MFTs—including the federal MFT—are assessed in cents per gallon and not indexed), and recent vehicle miles traveled (VMT) trends—especially during the 2020–21 pandemic years, which saw lower passenger and freight travel. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential not only to accelerate the fuel efficiency of vehicles in use, but also to lead to a sizable population of individual road users who pay no fuel taxes. A recent study estimated that EVs reduce gas tax revenues by $250 million a year (Davis and Sallee, 2019).","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87038129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Luca Benzoni, Christian Cabanilla, Alessandro Cocco, Cullen Kavoussi
{"title":"What does the CDS market imply for a U.S. default?","authors":"Luca Benzoni, Christian Cabanilla, Alessandro Cocco, Cullen Kavoussi","doi":"10.21033/ep-2023-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2023-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135008084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Missing workers and missing jobs since the pandemic","authors":"Bart Hobijn, Ayşegül Şahin","doi":"10.21033/ep-2023-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2023-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135783953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
While public debt has risen in the last two decades, the return that it offers to investors has fallen, especially relative to the return on private investment. This creates a revenue for the government as the supplier of the special services offered by public bonds, which include storage of value, safety, liquidity, and reprieve from repression. The present value of this debt revenue is large relative to the stock of public debt, keeping it sustainable even as the present value of primary balances is zero or negative. It gives rise to different policy tradeoffs than the conventional analysis of primary balances and makes different recommendation on the effects of austerity, the optimal amount of debt, or the spillovers between monetary and fiscal policy.
{"title":"Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt","authors":"R. Reis","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.4.103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.4.103","url":null,"abstract":"While public debt has risen in the last two decades, the return that it offers to investors has fallen, especially relative to the return on private investment. This creates a revenue for the government as the supplier of the special services offered by public bonds, which include storage of value, safety, liquidity, and reprieve from repression. The present value of this debt revenue is large relative to the stock of public debt, keeping it sustainable even as the present value of primary balances is zero or negative. It gives rise to different policy tradeoffs than the conventional analysis of primary balances and makes different recommendation on the effects of austerity, the optimal amount of debt, or the spillovers between monetary and fiscal policy.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45956297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The employment history of African American women is notable because of their higher labor force participation rates compared to other women in the US. This essay discusses Sadie T.M. Alexander’s analysis of Black women and work based on her 1930s speeches and writings. Alexander assessed Black women workers’ contribution to Black American living standards and national output. A proponent of women’s gainful employment and economic independence, Alexander’s views on the benefits of industrial employment for women and family life stood in stark contrast to White social welfare reformers who discouraged maternal employment in favor of households with male breadwinners. Alexander criticized the unequal treatment of Black and White women under protective labor law, particularly with respect to domestic servants’ exclusion from New Deal minimum wage and maximum hour protections. The legacy of discriminatory policies continues to affect the economic status of African American women today through racial disparities in social welfare provisions and worker benefits.
{"title":"Retrospectives: Sadie T.M. Alexander: Black Women and a “Taste of Freedom in the Economic World”","authors":"N. Banks","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.4.205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.4.205","url":null,"abstract":"The employment history of African American women is notable because of their higher labor force participation rates compared to other women in the US. This essay discusses Sadie T.M. Alexander’s analysis of Black women and work based on her 1930s speeches and writings. Alexander assessed Black women workers’ contribution to Black American living standards and national output. A proponent of women’s gainful employment and economic independence, Alexander’s views on the benefits of industrial employment for women and family life stood in stark contrast to White social welfare reformers who discouraged maternal employment in favor of households with male breadwinners. Alexander criticized the unequal treatment of Black and White women under protective labor law, particularly with respect to domestic servants’ exclusion from New Deal minimum wage and maximum hour protections. The legacy of discriminatory policies continues to affect the economic status of African American women today through racial disparities in social welfare provisions and worker benefits.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42980059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
For emerging markets, fiscal space is a very real constraint that can surface under a variety of circumstances, including rising world interest rates, falling commodity prices, or a global recession. Some emerging markets, and the majority of low-income developing economies, are already in debt distress or default. Near-term, making sure that troubled debtor countries are aware of the full menu of options, including heterodox strategies such as default, is important. Longer-term, a rethink of the Bretton Woods financial institutions to incorporate a greater emphasis on outright grants instead of loans, makes more sense than ever.
{"title":"Emerging Market Sovereign Debt in the Aftermath of the Pandemic","authors":"Kenneth Rogoff","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.4.147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.4.147","url":null,"abstract":"For emerging markets, fiscal space is a very real constraint that can surface under a variety of circumstances, including rising world interest rates, falling commodity prices, or a global recession. Some emerging markets, and the majority of low-income developing economies, are already in debt distress or default. Near-term, making sure that troubled debtor countries are aware of the full menu of options, including heterodox strategies such as default, is important. Longer-term, a rethink of the Bretton Woods financial institutions to incorporate a greater emphasis on outright grants instead of loans, makes more sense than ever.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66272515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A recent flurry of labor movement activity has been driven by younger workers, tight labor markets, and a sympathetic federal government. Nonetheless, US union density remains low, even as unions remain popular. This is because employer opposition and US labor law together imply that workers need to overcome substantial collective action problems at work in order to win union recognition and collective bargaining agreements. These barriers make dense social networks and high levels of social capital at work a prerequisite for unionization. Labor organizing can build this social capital, but faces an uphill battle without policy changes that extend collective bargaining across employers and up the value-chain and make unionization easier. Partnering with labor unions, researchers can study theoretical problems of collective action while also getting a window into what strategies of a renewed labor movement may work.
{"title":"Is There Any Future for a US Labor Movement?","authors":"S. Naidu","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.4.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.4.3","url":null,"abstract":"A recent flurry of labor movement activity has been driven by younger workers, tight labor markets, and a sympathetic federal government. Nonetheless, US union density remains low, even as unions remain popular. This is because employer opposition and US labor law together imply that workers need to overcome substantial collective action problems at work in order to win union recognition and collective bargaining agreements. These barriers make dense social networks and high levels of social capital at work a prerequisite for unionization. Labor organizing can build this social capital, but faces an uphill battle without policy changes that extend collective bargaining across employers and up the value-chain and make unionization easier. Partnering with labor unions, researchers can study theoretical problems of collective action while also getting a window into what strategies of a renewed labor movement may work.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41941400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. Crouzet, Janice C. Eberly, Andrea L. Eisfeldt, D. Papanikolaou
Intangible assets are a large and growing part of firms’ capital stocks. Intangibles are accumulated via investment—foregoing consumption today for output in the future—but they lack a physical presence. Rather than stopping with this “lack,” we instead focus on the positive properties of intangibles. Specifically, intangibles must be stored, so characteristics of the storage medium have important implications for their value and use. These properties include non-rivalry, allowing the intangible to be used simultaneously in different production streams, and limited excludability, which prevents the firm from capturing all the benefits or rents from the intangible. We develop these ideas in a simple way to illustrate how outcomes such as scalability and distribution of ownership follow. We discuss how intangibles can help to understand important trends in macroeconomics and finance, including productivity, factor shares, inequality, investment and valuation, rents and market power, and firm financing.
{"title":"The Economics of Intangible Capital","authors":"N. Crouzet, Janice C. Eberly, Andrea L. Eisfeldt, D. Papanikolaou","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.3.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.3.29","url":null,"abstract":"Intangible assets are a large and growing part of firms’ capital stocks. Intangibles are accumulated via investment—foregoing consumption today for output in the future—but they lack a physical presence. Rather than stopping with this “lack,” we instead focus on the positive properties of intangibles. Specifically, intangibles must be stored, so characteristics of the storage medium have important implications for their value and use. These properties include non-rivalry, allowing the intangible to be used simultaneously in different production streams, and limited excludability, which prevents the firm from capturing all the benefits or rents from the intangible. We develop these ideas in a simple way to illustrate how outcomes such as scalability and distribution of ownership follow. We discuss how intangibles can help to understand important trends in macroeconomics and finance, including productivity, factor shares, inequality, investment and valuation, rents and market power, and firm financing.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45386140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this article, I offer guidance on how to combine descriptive and model-based empirical analysis within a paper. Drawing on examples from three recently published applied microeconomics papers, I argue that it is important to create a tight link between the descriptive analysis and the bottom-line deliverable of the model-based analysis, and I try to distill some lessons or principles for doing so. I also offer some thoughts on when a paper should start with descriptive analysis and then proceed to model-based analysis and when alternative structures may be desirable.
{"title":"Principles for Combining Descriptive and Model-Based Analysis in Applied Microeconomics Research","authors":"Neale Mahoney","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.3.211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.3.211","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, I offer guidance on how to combine descriptive and model-based empirical analysis within a paper. Drawing on examples from three recently published applied microeconomics papers, I argue that it is important to create a tight link between the descriptive analysis and the bottom-line deliverable of the model-based analysis, and I try to distill some lessons or principles for doing so. I also offer some thoughts on when a paper should start with descriptive analysis and then proceed to model-based analysis and when alternative structures may be desirable.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43065973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges posed by the rational expectations revolution, most importantly the idea that economic agents are forward-looking. Second, belief overreaction can account for many long-standing empirical puzzles in macro and finance, which emphasize the extreme volatility and boom-bust dynamics of key time series, such as stock prices, credit, and investment. Third, overreaction relies on psychology and is disciplined by survey data on expectations. This suggests that relaxing the assumption of rational expectations is a promising strategy, helps theory and evidence go together, and promises a unified view of a great deal of data.
{"title":"Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics","authors":"P. Bordalo, N. Gennaioli, A. Shleifer","doi":"10.1257/jep.36.3.223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.3.223","url":null,"abstract":"We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges posed by the rational expectations revolution, most importantly the idea that economic agents are forward-looking. Second, belief overreaction can account for many long-standing empirical puzzles in macro and finance, which emphasize the extreme volatility and boom-bust dynamics of key time series, such as stock prices, credit, and investment. Third, overreaction relies on psychology and is disciplined by survey data on expectations. This suggests that relaxing the assumption of rational expectations is a promising strategy, helps theory and evidence go together, and promises a unified view of a great deal of data.","PeriodicalId":15611,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Perspectives","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42299816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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