Background: When experimentally determined dislodgeable foliar residue (DFR) values are not available, regulatory agencies use conservative default DFR values as a first-tier approach to assess post-application dermal exposures to plant protection products (PPPs). These default values are based on a limited set of field studies, are very conservative, and potentially overestimate exposures from DFRs.
Objective: Use Random Forest to develop classification and regression-type ensemble models to predict DFR values after last application (DFR0) by considering experimentally-based variability due to differences in physical and chemical properties of PPPs, agronomic practices, crop type, and climatic conditions.
Methods: Random Forest algorithm was used to develop in-silico ensemble DFR0 prediction models using more than 100 DFR studies from Corteva AgriscienceTM. Several variables related to the active ingredient (a.i.) that was applied, crop, and climate conditions at the time of last application were considered as model parameters.
Results: The proposed ensemble models demonstrated 98% prediction accuracy that if a DFR0 is predicted to be less than the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) default DFR0 value of 3 µg/cm2/kg a.i./ha, it is highly indicative that the measured DFR value will be less than the default if the study is conducted. If a value is predicted to be larger than or equal to the EFSA default, the model has an 83% prediction accuracy.
Impact statement: This manuscript is expected to have significant impact globally as it provides: A framework for incorporating in silico DFR data into worker exposure assessment, A roadmap for a tiered approach for conducting re-entry exposure assessment, and A proof of concept for using existing DFR data to provide a read-across framework that can easily be harmonized across all regulatory agencies to provide more robust assessments for PPP exposures.
Background: Characterizing the spatial distribution of PM2.5 species concentrations is challenging due to the geographic sparsity of the stationary monitoring network. Recent advances have enabled valid estimation of PM2.5 species concentrations using satellite remote sensing data for use in epidemiologic studies.
Objective: In this study, we used satellite-based estimates of ambient PM2.5 species concentrations to estimate associations with birth weight and preterm birth in California.
Methods: Daily 24 h averaged ground-level PM2.5 species concentrations of organic carbon, elemental carbon, nitrate, and sulfate were estimated during 2005-2014 in California at 1 km resolution. Birth records were linked to ambient pollutant exposures based on maternal residential zip code. Linear regression and Cox regression were conducted to estimate the effect of 1 µg/m3 increases in PM2.5 species concentrations on birth weight and preterm birth.
Results: Analyses included 4.7 million live singleton births having a median 28 days with exposure measurements per pregnancy. In single pollutant models, the observed changes in mean birth weight (per 1 µg/m3 increase in speciated PM2.5 concentrations) were: organic carbon -3.12 g (CI: -4.71, -1.52), elemental carbon -14.20 g (CI: -18.76, -9.63), nitrate -5.51 g (CI: -6.79, -4.23), and sulfate 9.26 g (CI: 7.03, 11.49). Results from multipollutant models were less precise due to high correlation between pollutants. Associations with preterm birth were null, save for a negative association between sulfate and preterm birth (Hazard Ratio per 1 µg/m3 increase: 0.973 CI: 0.958, 0.987).
Geographical and meteorological factors have been reported to influence the prevalence of echinococcosis, but there’s a lack of indicator system and model.
To provide further insight into the impact of geographical and meteorological factors on AE prevalence and establish a theoretical basis for prevention and control.
Principal component and regression analysis were used to screen and establish a three-level indicator system. Relative weights were examined to determine the impact of each indicator, and five mathematical models were compared to identify the best predictive model for AE epidemic levels.
By analyzing the data downloaded from the China Meteorological Data Service Center and Geospatial Data Cloud, we established the KCBIS, including 50 basic indicators which could be directly obtained online, 15 characteristic indicators which were linear combination of the basic indicators and showed a linear relationship with AE epidemic, and 8 key indicators which were characteristic indicators with a clearer relationships and fewer mixed effects. The relative weight analysis revealed that monthly precipitation, monthly cold days, the difference between negative and positive temperature anomalies, basic air temperature conditions, altitude, the difference between positive and negative atmospheric pressure anomalies, monthy extremely hot days, and monthly fresh breeze days were correlated with the natural logarithm of AE prevalence, with sequential decreases in their relative weights. The multinomial logistic regression model was the best predictor at epidemic levels 1, 3, 5, and 6, whereas the CART model was the best predictor at epidemic levels 2, 4, and 5.
Exposure to air pollution can exacerbate asthma with immediate and long-term health consequences. Behaviour changes can reduce exposure to air pollution, yet its ‘invisible’ nature often leaves individuals unaware of their exposure, complicating the identification of appropriate behaviour modifications. Moreover, making health behaviour changes can be challenging, necessitating additional support from healthcare professionals.
This pilot study used personal exposure monitoring, data feedback, and co-developed behaviour change interventions with individuals with asthma, with the goal of reducing personal exposure to PM2.5 and subsequently improving asthma-related health.
Twenty-eight participants conducted baseline exposure monitoring for one-week, simultaneously keeping asthma symptom and medication diaries (previously published in McCarron et al., 2023). Participants were then randomised into control (n = 8) or intervention (n = 9) groups. Intervention participants received PM2.5 exposure feedback and worked with researchers to co-develop behaviour change interventions based on a health behaviour change programme which they implemented during the follow-up monitoring week. Control group participants received no feedback or intervention during the study.
All interventions focused on the home environment. Intervention group participants reduced their at-home exposure by an average of 5.7 µg/m³ over the monitoring week (−23.0 to +3.2 µg/m³), whereas the control group had a reduction of 4.7 µg/m³ (−15.6 to +0.4 µg/m³). Furthermore, intervention group participants experienced a 4.6% decrease in participant-hours with reported asthma symptoms, while the control group saw a 0.5% increase. Similarly, the intervention group’s asthma-related quality of life improved compared to the control group.
This pilot study investigated a novel behaviour change intervention, utilising personal exposure monitoring, data feedback, and co-developed interventions guided by a health behaviour change programme. The study aimed to reduce personal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and improve self-reported asthma-related health. Conducting a randomised controlled trial with 28 participants, co-developed intervention successfully targeted exposure peaks within participants’ home microenvironments, resulting in a reduction in at-home personal exposure to PM2.5 and improving self-reported asthma-related health. The study contributes valuable insights into the environmental exposure-health relationship and highlights the potential of the intervention for individual-level decision-making to protect human health.
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