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A stochastic optimization approach for shredded document reconstruction in forensic investigations 一种用于法医调查中碎裂文件重建的随机优化方法。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70182
Aqi Dong PhD, Volodymyr Melnykov PhD

Document shredding remains a common method for destroying sensitive information, creating significant challenges for forensic investigators seeking to recover such materials as evidence. This paper addresses shredded document reconstruction through a stochastic optimization approach inspired by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Unlike traditional approaches relying on physical edge matching—suitable for hand-torn documents but computationally prohibitive for cross-cut shredding—our method evaluates visual content matches through edge compatibility metrics. We develop a specialized acceptance criterion balancing exploration of diverse configurations with exploitation of promising solutions. The method employs gamma distribution modeling of edge deviations with maximum likelihood parameter estimation, providing an adaptive framework responsive to reconstruction progress. Through evaluation with over 1100 document instances spanning typed text, handwritten notes, photographs, and mixed-content materials, we demonstrate robust performance across diverse document types. Empirical comparisons reveal that while simulated annealing (SA) and genetic algorithms (GA) achieve only marginal cost reductions (1%–13%), our approach successfully reconstructs documents that these standard metaheuristics cannot solve. The algorithm handles intermixed fragments from multiple documents—common in forensic casework—with performance analysis showing content-rich regions assembling faster than uniform areas. Validation on physically shredded documents from the DARPA Shredder Challenge confirms practical utility where traditional methods fail. For complex reconstructions, our semi-automated approach incorporates human guidance at intermediate stages, reducing computation time while maintaining accuracy. This research advances forensic document examination capabilities, offering a flexible framework adaptable to various document types encountered in investigative practice.

粉碎文件仍然是销毁敏感信息的常用方法,这给寻求恢复这类材料作为证据的法医调查人员带来了重大挑战。本文通过一种受马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)方法启发的随机优化方法来解决切碎的文档重建问题。与依赖物理边缘匹配的传统方法(适合手工撕裂的文档,但计算上禁止横切切分)不同,我们的方法通过边缘兼容性度量来评估视觉内容匹配。我们开发了一个专门的验收标准,平衡了对不同配置的探索和对有前途的解决方案的开发。该方法利用最大似然参数估计对边缘偏差进行伽玛分布建模,提供了一个响应重建进度的自适应框架。通过对1100多个文档实例的评估,包括打字文本、手写笔记、照片和混合内容材料,我们展示了跨不同文档类型的强大性能。实证比较表明,虽然模拟退火(SA)和遗传算法(GA)只能实现边际成本降低(1%-13%),但我们的方法成功地重建了这些标准元启发式方法无法解决的文档。该算法处理来自多个文档的混合片段(在法医案例中很常见),性能分析显示,内容丰富的区域比统一的区域组装得更快。DARPA碎纸机挑战赛对物理碎纸文件的验证证实了传统方法无法实现的实用性。对于复杂的重建,我们的半自动化方法在中间阶段采用人工指导,在保持准确性的同时减少了计算时间。这项研究提高了法医文件检查能力,提供了一个灵活的框架,适用于调查实践中遇到的各种文件类型。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of liner properties on the analysis of lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) analogs 内胆性质对麦角酸二乙胺(LSD)类似物分析的影响。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-09-21 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70188
Sarah A. Shuda MS

Lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) and analogs are psychedelic drugs commonly submitted to forensic chemistry laboratories. These drugs are often present on items of evidence at low concentrations, requiring sensitive analyses to positively identify their presence. The injection port of a gas chromatograph (GC) plays an important role in vaporizing and transferring substances to the column for separation and subsequent detection. The consumables in the inlet, specifically the liner, can influence the abundance and chromatography of compounds being analyzed. Twelve liners with varying geometries, packing materials, and deactivation chemistries were assessed by analyzing a mixture of eight LSD-related compounds and comparing the average peak areas. Liners containing packing materials yielded significantly higher peak areas as compared to those without. The geometry of the liner played a smaller role and affected results only with one deactivation when glass wool was not present. Base deactivation improved peak area when compared to standard and Topaz deactivation in straight liners with packing. Authentic samples were analyzed on liners with varying deactivation chemistries to determine the effect over a run of seven replicates of 10 street samples (70 sample injections). Peak area with base-deactivated liners and liners with standard deactivation remained consistent over time, whereas the liner with Topaz deactivation decreased in peak area 52–68% after the initial injection and demonstrated a decrease in peak area of 30–54% from the first injection to the final injection.

麦角酸二乙胺(LSD)及其类似物是法医化学实验室常用的致幻剂。这些药物通常以低浓度出现在证据项上,需要灵敏的分析才能积极识别它们的存在。气相色谱仪(GC)的进样口在将物质汽化并转移到色谱柱中进行分离和后续检测方面起着重要作用。进料口的耗材,特别是衬垫,会影响被分析化合物的丰度和色谱。通过分析8种lsd相关化合物的混合物,并比较平均峰面积,对12种不同几何形状、包装材料和失活化学成分的尾管进行了评估。与没有包装材料的衬垫相比,含有包装材料的衬垫产生了明显更高的峰面积。当玻璃棉不存在时,衬垫的几何形状起的作用较小,仅在一次失活时影响结果。与带填料的直线衬垫中标准和黄玉的钝化相比,基材钝化提高了峰面积。真实样品在具有不同失活化学成分的衬垫上进行分析,以确定对10个街道样品(70个样品注射)进行7次重复的效果。基础失活衬套和标准失活衬套的峰面积随着时间的推移保持一致,而Topaz失活衬套在初始注入后峰面积减少了52-68%,从第一次注入到最终注入,峰面积减少了30-54%。
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引用次数: 0
Synthesis, characterization, and binding interactions of rhodanine-3-acetic acid-based compound for latent fingerprint development 罗丹宁-3-乙酸基化合物的合成、表征及结合相互作用。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-09-21 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70186
Varinder Singh PhD, Pawan Mandal MSc, Navalpreet Kaur PhD, Debasis Bora PhD, Ritu Gupta MSc, Aditya Kumar PhD, Meghna Sharma PhD, Gaurav Sanghvi MSc, Syed Ahmar Ali Hashmi PhD, Sudhanshu Kumar Jha MPharm, Keshav Taruneshwar Jha MPharm

Latent fingerprints constitute a cornerstone of forensic identification. However, their visualization is a technical challenge—highly dependent on the nature of the surface from where fingerprints are collected, environmental exposure, and the detection agent applied. Herein, we report the preparation of a new compound, [5-benzylidene-4-oxo-2-thioxo-1,3-thiazolidin-3-yl] acetic acid (compound 3), by Knoevenagel condensation and characterization by 1H NMR and FTIR. Its ability to develop latent fingerprints was systematically assessed on a wide variety of surfaces, including marble, plywood, glass, plastic sheet, silver foil, human skin, rubber gloves, and thermocol. Theoretical studies (density functional theory and molecular docking analyses) explored interactions with serine, highlighting the role of specific binding interactions in fingerprint development. This innovative approach, blending synthetic chemistry, spectroscopic techniques, and theoretical studies, paves the way for the development of new latent fingerprint agents in the future.

潜在指纹是法医鉴定的基石。然而,它们的可视化是一项技术挑战——高度依赖于收集指纹的表面性质、环境暴露和所使用的检测剂。本文报道了用Knoevenagel缩合法制备的新化合物[5-苄基-4-氧-2-硫氧-1,3-噻唑烷-3-基]乙酸(化合物3),并用1H NMR和FTIR进行了表征。系统地评估了其在各种表面上开发潜在指纹的能力,包括大理石,胶合板,玻璃,塑料片,银箔,人体皮肤,橡胶手套和温度计。理论研究(密度泛函理论和分子对接分析)探讨了与丝氨酸的相互作用,强调了特异性结合相互作用在指纹发育中的作用。这种创新的方法,混合了合成化学,光谱技术和理论研究,为未来开发新的潜在指纹剂铺平了道路。
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引用次数: 0
Attenuated total reflection Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and chemometric analysis for estimating time since deposition of bloodstains on fabrics under ambient conditions 环境条件下织物上血迹沉积时间的衰减全反射傅立叶变换红外光谱和化学计量分析。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70184
Salma Al-Antari BSc, Zainab H. Hussain MSc, Mohamed O. Amin PhD, Bhavik Vyas PhD, Igor K. Lednev PhD, Entesar Al-Hetlani PhD

The present study expands upon previous studies by employing attenuated total reflection Fourier-transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy as a nondestructive technique for estimating the time since deposition (TSD) of blood traces on common fabrics and household items. Initial analysis showed substrate contributions; however, these did not affect the amide I and II bands specific to blood proteins in infrared spectra. A comprehensive statistical analysis was conducted which was evaluated using external validation; this was done to ensure that model predictions remain reliable and to prevent overfitting, which can be introduced by internal validation methods. To identify relatively recent bloodstains, a partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) classification model was developed to effectively distinguish between blood samples aged on cotton and polyester for ≤72 and >72 h. The external validation of these binary models yielded average prediction accuracies of 92% for bloodstains on polyester and 94% for those on cotton. A partial least squares regression (PLSR) combined with a genetic algorithm (GA) was used for building regression models with R2 prediction values of 0.86 and 0.85 for polyester and cotton, respectively. This proof-of-concept study demonstrates that ATR-FTIR spectroscopy combined with advanced chemometrics enabled estimation of the time since deposition (TSD) of blood traces on cotton and polyester fabrics. Although the results are promising, the study involved a small number of donors and limited surface types; therefore, additional future research is needed to determine its broader applicability to a wider range of donors and surfaces.

本研究扩展了以往的研究,采用衰减全反射傅立叶变换红外(ATR-FTIR)光谱作为一种无损技术,用于估计血液痕迹在常见织物和家居用品上沉积(TSD)的时间。初步分析显示了底物的贡献;然而,这些对血液蛋白在红外光谱中的特异性酰胺I和II波段没有影响。进行综合统计分析,采用外部验证进行评价;这样做是为了确保模型预测保持可靠,并防止过度拟合,这可以通过内部验证方法引入。为了识别相对较近的血迹,建立了偏最小二乘判别分析(PLS-DA)分类模型,以有效区分棉花和聚酯老化≤72和bbb72 h的血液样本。对这些二元模型进行外部验证后,涤纶上血迹的平均预测准确率为92%,棉上血迹的平均预测准确率为94%。采用偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)结合遗传算法(GA)建立回归模型,涤纶和棉的R2预测值分别为0.86和0.85。这项概念验证研究表明,ATR-FTIR光谱与先进的化学计量学相结合,可以估计血液痕迹在棉和涤纶织物上沉积的时间(TSD)。虽然结果很有希望,但这项研究涉及的供体数量很少,表面类型有限;因此,需要进一步的研究来确定其更广泛的适用性,以更广泛的供体和表面。
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引用次数: 0
Sibling incest resulting in pregnancy: A forensic case study of paternal neglect and pornographic exposure 兄弟姐妹乱伦导致怀孕:父亲忽视和色情暴露的法医案例研究。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70187
Nese Kavruk Erdim MD, Gamze Bas MD, Alperen Bikmazer MD, Hasan Agritmis MD

This case report presents a rare incident of sibling incest resulting in pregnancy, occurring within a context of paternal neglect and inadequate parental supervision. A 14-year-old boy, after unsupervised exposure to pornographic content on his father's mobile device, engaged in sexual intercourse with his 15-year-old sister. The case highlights the psychological and developmental risks posed by early and unregulated access to sexually explicit material. It also underscores the diagnostic, ethical, and legal challenges in the detection and forensic evaluation of intrafamilial sexual abuse. This report emphasizes the urgent need for preventive strategies, including parental controls, digital literacy training, and age-appropriate sexual education.

本病例报告提出了一个罕见的兄弟姐妹乱伦导致怀孕的事件,发生在父亲忽视和父母监督不足的背景下。一名14岁的男孩在无人监督的情况下接触了父亲移动设备上的色情内容后,与他15岁的妹妹发生了性关系。该案例突出了过早和不受管制地接触色情材料所带来的心理和发展风险。它还强调了家庭内部性虐待的检测和法医评估中的诊断,道德和法律挑战。本报告强调迫切需要采取预防策略,包括家长控制、数字素养培训和适龄性教育。
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引用次数: 0
Identification of N-pyrrolidino protonitazene in suspect tablets encountered at an international mail facility 在一个国际邮件设施发现的可疑药片中鉴定出n -吡咯利迪诺原他唑烯。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70185
Lisa M. Lorenz BS, Adam Lanzarotta PhD, Brian Boyd BS, Anvi Patel MS

One of the United States Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) National Forensic Chemistry Center (NFCC) international mail facility (IMF) satellite laboratories received suspect light blue, round tablets debossed with “PERCOCET 5” on one side and half score on the other side. Although legitimate products with these characteristics contain acetaminophen and oxycodone, the suspect tablets examined in this study were found to contain caffeine by an FDA satellite laboratory. Based on the presence of this unlabeled ingredient and having markings that would indicate a controlled substance, the tablets were recommended for further analysis by NFCC's full-service laboratory. Preliminary analysis using liquid chromatography with mass spectrometric detection (LC–MS), the full-service laboratory confirmed the presence of caffeine and also determined that the tablets contained a nitazene-type compound. Qualitative method development using LC–MS permitted the ability to identify this compound as N-pyrrolidino protonitazene, while ruling out closely related compounds N-pyrrolidino isotonitazene and N-piperidinyl etonitazene. Quantitative method development using LC–MS determined that the tablets contained an average of 99 ± 16 μg N-pyrrolidino protonitazene per tablet. This finding is alarming considering that this compound reportedly has 25 times the potency of fentanyl. Although this is not the first time this nitazene analog has been reported, this case study adds additional information for identifying this compound. Since first being identified in these tablets, N-pyrrolidino protonitazene has been encountered with increasing regularity by this laboratory in other tablets with different colors, shapes, and markings. This compound has also been identified in tablets containing other drug substances.

美国食品和药物管理局(FDA)国家法医化学中心(NFCC)国际邮政设施(IMF)的一个卫星实验室收到了可疑的浅蓝色圆形片剂,片剂的一面刻有“PERCOCET 5”字样,另一面刻有半分。虽然具有这些特征的合法产品含有对乙酰氨基酚和羟考酮,但在这项研究中检查的可疑药片被FDA卫星实验室发现含有咖啡因。基于这种未标记成分的存在,并有表明受控物质的标记,建议这些片剂由NFCC的全方位服务实验室进行进一步分析。通过液相色谱和质谱检测(LC-MS)的初步分析,该全方位服务实验室证实了咖啡因的存在,并确定药片中含有一种nitazene类化合物。利用LC-MS进行定性分析,确定该化合物为n -吡咯里迪诺原硝基苯,同时排除了与该化合物密切相关的n -吡咯里迪诺异硝基苯和n -胡椒酰乙硝基苯。采用LC-MS进行定量方法测定,平均每片含有99±16 μg n -吡咯里诺原他唑。考虑到据报道这种化合物的效力是芬太尼的25倍,这一发现令人震惊。虽然这不是第一次报道这种nitazene类似物,但这个案例研究为识别这种化合物增加了额外的信息。自从首次在这些片剂中发现n -吡咯烷酮原硝唑以来,本实验室在其他不同颜色、形状和标记的片剂中发现了越来越多的n -吡咯烷酮原硝唑。在含有其他药物物质的片剂中也发现了这种化合物。
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引用次数: 0
Forensic analysis of post-blast residues from lead styphnate-based primers 法医分析爆炸后苯乙烯酸铅引物残留物。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70183
Lúcio Paulo Lima Logrado PhD, Eduardo Kraemer Góes PhD, Josyelle Maria Alcides Campos BSc

Explosions involving primary explosives as the sole energetic material are very uncommon, since such compounds are typically used only to initiate main charges. This case report addresses an unusual blast at a civilian logistics facility, where primer compositions containing lead styphnate were present not as initiators but as the principal energetic charge. To investigate this rare scenario, postblast residues were collected from a cotton disc at the explosion epicenter and subjected to forensic chemical analyses. Tandem mass spectrometry (MS–MS) revealed the styphnate ion, while scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM–EDS) identified lead-rich particles consistent with lead styphnate residues. Additionally, Pb–Ba–Sb–containing particles, characteristic of gunshot residue, were observed. The morphological characteristics of the particles indicate high-temperature formation and, together with their chemical composition containing Pb, Ba, and Sb, provide strong evidence of residues related to deflagration. These findings confirm that the explosion residues originated from a primary explosive, highlighting the forensic relevance of identifying such unconventional scenarios.

将初级炸药作为唯一的高能物质的爆炸是非常罕见的,因为这种化合物通常只用于启动主装药。本案例报告涉及民用后勤设施的一次不寻常爆炸,其中含有苯乙烯酸铅的底火组合物不是作为引发剂而是作为主要高能装药存在。为了调查这种罕见的情况,从爆炸中心的棉花盘上收集了爆炸后的残留物,并进行了法医化学分析。串联质谱分析(MS-MS)发现了苯乙烯酸离子,扫描电子显微镜(SEM-EDS)发现了富铅颗粒,与苯乙烯酸铅残留物一致。此外,还观察到具有枪弹残留物特征的pb - ba - sb颗粒。这些颗粒的形态特征表明它们是高温形成的,并且它们的化学成分中含有Pb、Ba和Sb,这有力地证明了它们是与爆燃有关的残留物。这些发现证实,爆炸残留物来自初级炸药,突出了鉴定这种非常规情景的法医相关性。
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引用次数: 0
Authors' response 作者的回应。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70166
Eric M. Warren PhD, John C. Handley PhD, H. David Sheets PhD
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引用次数: 0
Authors' response 作者的回应。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70164
Nada Aggadi BA, Thomas Busey PhD
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引用次数: 0
Commentary on: Aggadi N, Zeller K, Busey T. Quantifying the strength of firearms comparisons based on error rate studies. J Forensic Sci. 2024;70(1):84–97. https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.15646; Warren EC, Handley JC, Sheets HD. Cross entropy and log likelihood ratio cost as performance measures for multi-conclusion categorical outcomes scales. J Forensic Sci. 2024;70(2):589–606. https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.15686 评论:Aggadi N, Zeller K, Busey T.基于错误率研究的枪械比较强度量化。法医学学报,2009;37(1):84-97。https://doi.org/10.1111/1556 4029.15646;Warren EC, Handley JC, Sheets HD。交叉熵和对数似然比成本作为多结论分类结果量表的性能度量。法医学学报,2009;30(2):589-606。https://doi.org/10.1111/1556 - 4029.15686。
IF 1.8 4区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.70165
Geoffrey Stewart Morrison PhD
<p>Aggadi et al. [<span>1</span>] and Warren et al. [<span>2</span>] proposed methods for calculating likelihood ratios based on examiners' subjectively assigned categorical conclusions. Examiners participated in “black-box studies,” and in response to each set of a questioned-source item and one or more known-source items (hereinafter “a test trial”), each examiner selected a categorical response from an ordinal scale such as the Association of Firearm and Tool Mark Examiners (AFTE). Range of Conclusions: “Identification,” “Inconclusive A,” “Inconclusive B,” “Inconclusive C,” “Elimination.”* The response data were then used to train a statistical model that could potentially be used to convert a categorical conclusion into a likelihood ratio, for example, the probability that an examiner would conclude “Identification” if the compared items came from the same source divided by the probability that the examiner would conclude “Identification” if the compared items came from different sources (and mutatis mutandis for other categorical conclusions such as “Inconclusive A,” “Inconclusive B,” “Inconclusive C,” and “Elimination”). The method described in Warren et al. [<span>2</span>] directly calculates Bayes factors (the Bayesian analogue of likelihood ratios) based on Dirichlet priors and raw count data for each response category. Response data are pooled across test trials and across examiners. The method described in Aggadi et al. [<span>1</span>] is more complex: Using response data pooled across examiners, an ordered probit model is fitted to the data from each test trial, then the models are averaged across test trials. This creates a latent dimension, and Bayes factors are calculated on the latent dimension. Using the Warren et al. [<span>2</span>] method, the likelihood-ratio value corresponding to each categorical conclusion is directly calculated, and, in casework, the relevant likelihood-ratio value would be substituted for (or provided in addition to) an examiner's categorical conclusion. Using the Aggadi et al. [<span>1</span>] method, a direct substitution is not possible. Aggadi et al. [<span>1</span>] proposed that six benchmark sets of items be visually displayed, placed according to their location on the latent dimension, and that the examiner use these as a guide to assign the location on the latent dimension for the set of items from the case. The likelihood-ratio value corresponding to that location would then be used. Aggadi et al. [<span>1</span>] did not demonstrate implementation of this part of its method. Aggadi et al. [<span>1</span>] demonstrated application of the earlier parts of its method to firearms data (Busey & Coon [<span>3</span>] had earlier demonstrated application to fingerprint data), and Warren et al. [<span>2</span>] demonstrated application of its method to data from multiple fields, including fingerprints, firearms, bloodstain-pattern analysis, footwear, and handwriting.</p><p>The likelihood-ratio f
Aggadi et al.[1]和Warren et al.[1]提出了基于审查员主观分配的分类结论计算似然比的方法。审查员参与了“黑盒研究”,在回答每一组有问题的来源项目和一个或多个已知来源项目(以下简称“测试试验”)时,每个审查员从顺序量表(如枪支和工具标志审查员协会(AFTE))中选择一个分类反应。结论范围:“鉴定”、“不确定A”、“不确定B”、“不确定C”、“排除”。*然后使用响应数据来训练一个统计模型,该模型可以潜在地用于将分类结论转换为似然比,例如,如果比较项目来自同一来源,审查员得出“鉴定”结论的概率除以比较项目来自不同来源,审查员得出“鉴定”结论的概率(对于其他分类结论,如“不确定的a”,进行必要的修改)。“不确定的B”、“不确定的C”和“淘汰”)。Warren et al.[2]中描述的方法基于Dirichlet先验和每个响应类别的原始计数数据直接计算贝叶斯因子(Bayes analogue of likelihood ratio)。反应数据汇集在测试试验和考官之间。Aggadi et al.[1]中描述的方法更复杂:使用跨审查员的响应数据池,对每个测试试验的数据拟合一个有序概率模型,然后在测试试验中对模型进行平均。这就产生了一个潜在维度,并在潜在维度上计算贝叶斯因子。使用Warren等人的方法,直接计算每个分类结论对应的似然比值,在案例工作中,相关的似然比值将取代(或提供)审查员的分类结论。使用Aggadi等人的方法,直接替换是不可能的。Aggadi et al.[1]建议视觉显示六组基准项目,根据它们在潜在维度上的位置放置,审稿人使用这些作为指导,为案例中的一组项目分配在潜在维度上的位置。然后使用与该位置对应的似然比值。Aggadi et al.[1]没有演示其方法中这部分的实现。Aggadi et al.[1]演示了将其方法的早期部分应用于枪支数据(Busey & Coon[3]早先演示了将其应用于指纹数据),Warren et al. bbb演示了将其方法应用于多个领域的数据,包括指纹、枪支、血迹模式分析、鞋类和笔迹。似然比框架是逻辑上正确的司法证据解释框架,是重点机构所倡导的[4-9]。因此,Aggadi et al.[1]和Warren et al.[1](以及Busey & & Coon[3])对似然比框架在枪械检查和摩擦脊检查等领域的推广是值得欢迎的。使用基于相关数据、定量测量和统计模型的方法计算似然比优于使用基于人类感知和主观判断的方法,因为前者方法更透明,更容易复制,更能抵抗认知偏差,并且更容易在个案条件下进行校准和验证。在应用于枪械检验和摩擦脊检验的研究中,基于相关数据、定量测量和统计模型计算似然比的方法取得了进展,例如[11-16],但尚未在案例工作中广泛采用。相反,将审稿人在现有实践中主观分配的分类结论转换为似然比的方法,可能是在这些领域采用似然比框架的更快途径,并且可能是在这些领域接受基于相关数据、定量测量和统计模型计算似然比的方法的踏脚石[17,18]。不幸的是,Aggadi et al.[1]和Warren et al.[1]中提出的方法不适合计算在案例背景下有意义的似然比。下面将讨论其原因和潜在解决方案的概要。为了在案件背景下提供有意义的似然比,用于训练统计模型的响应数据必须代表对该案件进行法医比较的特定审查员的表现(或者,如果确定分类响应的过程,例如: 对于校准良好的似然比计算系统[23],更具挑战性的条件将导致似然比倾向于更接近中性值1,而不是较不具挑战性的条件。例如,Weber等人。[24]图8显示了经过校准的取证-语音比较系统的结果的Tippett图-在被质疑的说话者录音中,语音持续时间越短,条件越具有挑战性,并且对数似然比倾向于更接近中性的对数似然比值0。因此,在一组案例工作条件下计算的似然比可能与在另一组案例工作条件下计算的似然比有很大不同。根据来自多个不同条件的汇总数据训练的模型计算的似然比可能与根据反映特定情况的数据训练的模型计算的似然比值有很大不同。Aggadi等人([1])和Warren等人([2])中的模型是根据旨在反映单一案例条件的测试试验的反应数据训练的,还是根据反映各种不同案例条件的测试试验汇集的反应数据训练的,这一点并不总是很清楚。Warren等人[2]包括四个模型,每个模型在四个不同的实弹匣数据集之一上进行训练和测试,每个模型产生不同的对数似然比成本(Cllr)值[25]。不同的Cllr值可能(至少部分)是由于测试试验条件的挑战性不同。为了训练一个能在特定情况下计算有意义的似然比的模型,为该案件进行法医比较的特定审查员必须对大量相同来源的测试试验和大量不同来源的测试试验提供响应,其中每个测试试验中的项目条件反映了该案件中项目的条件。为了能够在多个不同的案例工作条件组中计算可能性比,审查员必须在多个不同的条件组中提供对每个测试试验的大量响应。这将进一步增加数据收集的难度。为了减少这种困难,可以开发一个统计模型,其中包括对条件的挑战性进行编码的术语。可以利用专题领域的专门知识来确定有关的个案工作条件的类别,模型将包括与这些类别有关的术语。类似地,可以包括术语来编码每个审查员的平均表现,也可以有审查员按条件的交互术语。交互条件会解释这样的情况,例如,两个考官在一种条件下表现得一样好,但一个考官在另一种条件下表现得比另一个好。一个合适的模型可能是逻辑回归,它的输出可以被操纵来计算考官、条件类别和分类反应的每个组合的似然比。如果特定审查员在特定条件类别下的可用回答数据量有限(甚至不存在),则该审查员在该条件类别下的似然比值将部分(或全部)从该审查员在其他条件类别下的表现和其他审查员在该条件类别下的表现中插值或外推。Aggadi et al. bb1和Warren et al. bb0中用于训练模型的数据来自黑盒研究。Cuellar等人从多个方面批评了现有枪支黑箱研究的设计,其中包括审查员知道他们正在接受测试,因此可能会表现得与他们进行案件工作时不同。事实上,Scurich等人发现,当枪支审查员意识到他们的工作流程中插入的盲测试验是测试时,与他们认为测试试验是真实案例时相比,“不确定”的反应率要高得多。为了计算有意义的似然比,用于训练统计模型的响应数据必须反映个案工作条件。由于考官知道他们正在接受测试时的表现与他们不知道他们正在接受测试时的表现存在差异,因此必须使用盲测试验来收集这些数据(并且在考官意识到盲测试验是测试bbb的情况下,必须从训练数据中排除回答)。方法如Aggadi et al.[1]和Warren et al.。 [2]将审查员主观认定的分类结论转化为似然比,可促进似然比框架在摩擦脊检验、枪械检验等领域的应用;但是,如上所述,在特定审查员能够使用这些方法为特定情况下的特定项目组的比较提供有意义的似然比之前,必须对统计模型和训练数据进行若干改进。作者声明,他们没有已知的竞争经济利益或个人关系,可能会影响本文所报告的工作。除非另有明确注明,否则本文中表达的所有观点均为作者的观点,不应被解释为代表作者所关联的任何组织的政策或立场。
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Journal of forensic sciences
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