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Report of the Editor of The Journal of Finance for the Year 2024 2024 年《金融杂志》编辑报告
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Finance
Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13435
ANTOINETTE SCHOAR
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引用次数: 0
AMERICAN FINANCE ASSOCIATION 美国金融协会
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Finance
Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13442
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引用次数: 0
BRATTLE GROUP AND DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS PRIZES FOR 2024 2024年Brattle集团和dimensional基金顾问奖
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Finance
Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13434
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引用次数: 0
Report of the EST and of the 2025 Annual Membership Meeting EST 和 2025 年会员年会报告
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Finance
Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13433
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引用次数: 0
Creating Controversy in Proxy Voting Advice 代理投票建议引发争议
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Finance
Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13438
ANDREY MALENKO, NADYA MALENKO, CHESTER SPATT

We analyze how a profit-maximizing proxy advisor designs vote recommendations and research reports. The advisor benefits from producing informative, unbiased reports, but only partially informative recommendations, biased against the a priori likely alternative. Such recommendations induce close votes, increasing controversy and thereby the relevance and value of proxy advice. Our results suggest shifting from an exclusive emphasis on recommendations, highlighting the importance of both reports and recommendations in proxy advisors' information provision. They rationalize the one-size-fits-all approach and help reinterpret empirical patterns of voting behavior, suggesting that proxy advisors' recommendations may not be a suitable benchmark for evaluating shareholders' votes.

我们分析了利润最大化代理顾问如何设计投票建议和研究报告。顾问从提供信息丰富、无偏见的报告中受益，但只提供部分信息的建议，对先验的可能替代方案有偏见。这样的建议会引起票数接近的投票，从而增加争议，从而增加代理意见的相关性和价值。我们的研究结果表明，在代理顾问的信息提供中，从只强调建议转变为强调报告和建议的重要性。他们合理化了一刀切的方法，并帮助重新解释了投票行为的经验模式，表明代理顾问的建议可能不是评估股东投票的合适基准。
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引用次数: 0
Excess Capacity, Marginal q, and Corporate Investment 过剩产能、边际q和企业投资
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Finance
Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13439
GUSTAVO GRULLON, DAVID L. IKENBERRY

Theory posits that when managers anticipate excess capacity, average q becomes a biased estimator of marginal q as the potential for underutilizing new capital reduces the marginal benefit of investing. After correcting for this source of measurement error, the explanatory power of Tobin's q substantially improves in time-series and cross-sectional regressions as well as in out-of-sample tests. These findings, together with a secular erosion in capacity utilization, help explain why corporate investment rates have been declining for decades despite average q increasing significantly. Our analysis indicates that economic rigidities have contributed to the persistent erosion in capacity utilization.

理论认为，当管理者预期产能过剩时，平均q成为边际q的有偏差估计，因为新资本未充分利用的潜力降低了投资的边际效益。在对这一测量误差来源进行校正后，Tobin’s q在时间序列和横截面回归以及样本外检验中的解释力大大提高。这些发现，再加上产能利用率的长期下降，有助于解释为什么在平均q显著上升的情况下，企业投资率几十年来一直在下降。我们的分析表明，经济的僵化导致了产能利用率的持续下降。
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引用次数: 0
Banks, Low Interest Rates, and Monetary Policy Transmission 银行、低利率和货币政策传导
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Finance
Pub Date : 2025-03-09 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13436
OLIVIER WANG

I study how the secular decline in interest rates affects banks' intermediation spreads and credit supply. Following a permanent decrease in rates, bank lending may rise initially but contracts in the long run. As lower rates compress deposit spreads even well above the zero lower bound, banks' retained earnings, equity, and lending fall until loan spreads have risen enough to offset the reduction in deposit spreads. A higher inflation target can support bank lending at the cost of higher liquidity premia. I find support for the model's predictions in U.S. aggregate and bank-level data.

我研究了利率的长期下降如何影响银行的中介利差和信贷供应。利率长期下降后，银行贷款最初可能会上升，但长期来看会收缩。由于利率下降会压缩存款利差，甚至远远超过零下限，银行的留存收益、股本和贷款都会下降，直到贷款利差上升到足以抵消存款利差的下降。较高的通胀目标可以支持银行贷款，但代价是较高的流动性溢价。我在美国总量和银行层面的数据中发现了模型预测的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Intrahousehold Disagreement about Macroeconomic Expectations 家庭内部对宏观经济预期的分歧
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Finance
Pub Date : 2025-03-09 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13437
DA KE

This paper highlights the simple fact that households typically consist of multiple members who may hold divergent views, a fact that existing approaches to measuring and modeling household macroeconomic expectations largely abstract from. Using unique data on the macroeconomic expectations of both spouses, I document substantial intrahousehold disagreement about inflation, economic recessions, and stock market returns. I further show that household asset allocation decisions are shaped by disagreement between spouses about future stock returns, and a preregistered randomized survey experiment confirms the causal impact of such disagreement on portfolio choice.

本文强调了一个简单的事实，即家庭通常由多个成员组成，而这些成员可能持有不同的观点，而现有的衡量和模拟家庭宏观经济预期的方法在很大程度上忽略了这一事实。利用夫妻双方对宏观经济预期的独特数据，我记录了家庭内部对通货膨胀、经济衰退和股市回报的巨大分歧。我进一步证明，家庭资产配置决策受配偶双方对未来股票回报率分歧的影响，而预先登记的随机调查实验证实了这种分歧对投资组合选择的因果影响。
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引用次数: 0
In Too Deep: The Effect of Sunk Costs on Corporate Investment 太深：沉没成本对企业投资的影响
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Finance
Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13430
MARIUS GUENZEL

Sunk costs are unrecoverable costs that should not affect decision making. I provide evidence that firms systematically fail to ignore sunk costs and that this leads to significant investment distortions. In fixed-exchange-ratio stock mergers, aggregate market fluctuations after parties enter into a binding merger agreement induce plausibly exogenous variation in the final acquisition cost. These quasi-random cost shocks strongly predict firms' commitment to an acquired business following deal completion, with an interquartile cost increase reducing subsequent divestiture rates by 8% to 9%. Consistent with an intrapersonal sunk cost channel, distortions are concentrated in firm-years in which the acquiring CEO is still in office.

沉没成本是指不应影响决策的不可收回成本。我提供的证据表明，企业没有系统性地忽视沉没成本，这导致了严重的投资扭曲。在固定交易比率的股票并购中，在各方达成具有约束力的并购协议后，总市场波动会导致最终收购成本出现貌似合理的外生变化。这些准随机成本冲击强有力地预测了公司在交易完成后对收购业务的承诺，四分之一成本的增加使随后的剥离率降低了8%至9%。与个人沉没成本渠道相一致的是，扭曲集中在收购方CEO仍在职的公司年度。
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引用次数: 0
How Credit Cycles across a Financial Crisis 信贷周期如何跨越金融危机
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Journal of Finance
Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13431
ARVIND KRISHNAMURTHY, TYLER MUIR

We analyze the behavior of credit and output in financial crises using data on credit spreads and credit growth. Crises are marked by a sharp rise in credit spreads, signaling sudden shifts in expectations. The severity of a crisis can be predicted by the extent of credit losses (spread increases) and financial sector fragility (precrisis credit growth). This interaction is a key feature of crises. Postcrisis recessions are typically severe and prolonged. Notably, precrisis spreads tend to drop to low levels while credit growth accelerates, indicating that credit supply expansions often precede crises. The 2008 crisis aligns with these patterns.

我们使用信贷息差和信贷增长的数据来分析金融危机中信贷和产出的行为。危机的特点是信贷息差急剧上升，预示着预期的突然转变。危机的严重程度可以通过信贷损失的程度（利差扩大）和金融部门的脆弱性（危机前的信贷增长）来预测。这种相互作用是危机的一个关键特征。危机后的衰退通常是严重而持久的。值得注意的是，当信贷增长加速时，危机前利差往往会降至较低水平，这表明信贷供应扩张往往发生在危机之前。2008年的危机符合这些模式。
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引用次数: 0
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