Political identity and partisanship are salient features of today's society. Using deeds records and voter rolls, we show that current residents are more likely to sell their homes when opposite-party neighbors move in nearby than when unaffiliated or same-party neighbors do. This is especially true when the new neighbors are politically active, consistent with an animosity between parties mechanism. We conclude that affective polarization is not limited to purely political settings and affects one of the household's most important financial decisions, their home transactions.
{"title":"Political Polarization Affects Households' Financial Decisions: Evidence from Home Sales","authors":"W. BEN MCCARTNEY, JOHN ORELLANA-LI, CALVIN ZHANG","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13315","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13315","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Political identity and partisanship are salient features of today's society. Using deeds records and voter rolls, we show that current residents are more likely to sell their homes when opposite-party neighbors move in nearby than when unaffiliated or same-party neighbors do. This is especially true when the new neighbors are politically active, consistent with an animosity between parties mechanism. We conclude that affective polarization is not limited to purely political settings and affects one of the household's most important financial decisions, their home transactions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"79 2","pages":"795-841"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139745213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Participant Schedule for the AFA 2024 Preliminary Program January 5–7, 2024","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13304","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"79 1","pages":"715-786"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139655368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The share of secured debt issued (as a fraction of total corporate debt) declined steadily in the United States over the twentieth century. This stems partly from financial development giving creditors greater confidence that high-quality borrowers will respect their claims even if creditors do not obtain security upfront. Consequently, such borrowers prefer retaining financial flexibility by not giving security up front. Instead, security is given contingently—when a firm approaches distress. This also explains why, superimposed on the secular decline, the share of secured debt issued is countercyclical.
{"title":"The Decline of Secured Debt","authors":"EFRAIM BENMELECH, NITISH KUMAR, RAGHURAM RAJAN","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13308","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13308","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The share of secured debt issued (as a fraction of total corporate debt) declined steadily in the United States over the twentieth century. This stems partly from financial development giving creditors greater confidence that high-quality borrowers will respect their claims even if creditors do not obtain security upfront. Consequently, such borrowers prefer retaining financial flexibility by not giving security up front. Instead, security is given contingently—when a firm approaches distress. This also explains why, superimposed on the secular decline, the share of secured debt issued is countercyclical.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"79 1","pages":"35-93"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138740705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The U.S. dollar appreciates in the run-up to foreign exchange (FX) fixes and depreciates thereafter, tracing a W-shaped return pattern around the clock. Return reversals for the top nine traded currencies over a 21-year period are pervasive and highly statistically significant, and they imply daily swings of more than one billion U.S. dollars based on spot volumes. Using natural experiments, we document the existence of a published reference rate determines the timing of intraday return reversals. We present evidence consistent with an inventory risk explanation whereby FX dealers intermediate unconditional demand for U.S. dollars at the fixes.
美元在外汇定价前升值，定价后贬值，昼夜呈现 W 型回报模式。在 21 年的时间里，交易量最大的九种货币的回报率反转非常普遍，而且在统计上非常显著，根据即期交易量计算，这意味着每天的波动超过 10 亿美元。通过自然实验，我们证明了已公布参考汇率的存在决定了日内回报逆转的时间。我们提出的证据与库存风险的解释相一致，即外汇交易商在定盘价上对美元的中间需求是无条件的。
{"title":"Foreign Exchange Fixings and Returns around the Clock","authors":"INGOMAR KROHN, PHILIPPE MUELLER, PAUL WHELAN","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13306","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13306","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The U.S. dollar appreciates in the run-up to foreign exchange (FX) fixes and depreciates thereafter, tracing a <i>W</i>-shaped return pattern around the clock. Return reversals for the top nine traded currencies over a 21-year period are pervasive and highly statistically significant, and they imply daily swings of more than one billion U.S. dollars based on spot volumes. Using natural experiments, we document the existence of a published reference rate determines the timing of intraday return reversals. We present evidence consistent with an inventory risk explanation whereby FX dealers intermediate unconditional demand for U.S. dollars at the fixes.</p>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"79 1","pages":"541-578"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jofi.13306","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138740729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study the recent Australian experience with yield curve control (YCC) as perhaps the best evidence of how this policy might work in other developed economies. YCC seemingly worked well in 2020, when the market expected short rates to stay at zero for a long period of time. As the global recovery and inflation gained momentum in 2021, liftoff expectations moved up, the Reserve Bank of Australia purchased most of the targeted government bond outstanding, and the target bond's yield dislocated from other financial market instruments. The evidence suggests that central bank bond purchase programs can operate more narrowly than previously considered.
{"title":"The Narrow Channel of Quantitative Easing: Evidence from YCC Down Under","authors":"DAVID O. LUCCA, JONATHAN H. WRIGHT","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13307","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13307","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We study the recent Australian experience with yield curve control (YCC) as perhaps the best evidence of how this policy might work in other developed economies. YCC seemingly worked well in 2020, when the market expected short rates to stay at zero for a long period of time. As the global recovery and inflation gained momentum in 2021, liftoff expectations moved up, the Reserve Bank of Australia purchased most of the targeted government bond outstanding, and the target bond's yield dislocated from other financial market instruments. The evidence suggests that central bank bond purchase programs can operate more narrowly than previously considered.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"79 2","pages":"1055-1085"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138887373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We document an unprecedented brain drain of Artificial Intelligence (AI) professors from universities from 2004 to 2018. We find that students from the affected universities establish fewer AI startups and raise less funding. The brain-drain effect is significant for tenured professors, professors from top universities, and deep-learning professors. Additional evidence suggests that unobserved city- and university-level shocks are unlikely to drive our results. We consider several economic channels for the findings. The most consistent explanation is that professors' departures reduce startup founders' AI knowledge, which we find is an important factor for successful startup formation and fundraising.
{"title":"Artificial Intelligence, Education, and Entrepreneurship","authors":"MICHAEL GOFMAN, ZHAO JIN","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13302","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13302","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We document an unprecedented brain drain of Artificial Intelligence (AI) professors from universities from 2004 to 2018. We find that students from the affected universities establish fewer AI startups and raise less funding. The brain-drain effect is significant for tenured professors, professors from top universities, and deep-learning professors. Additional evidence suggests that unobserved city- and university-level shocks are unlikely to drive our results. We consider several economic channels for the findings. The most consistent explanation is that professors' departures reduce startup founders' AI knowledge, which we find is an important factor for successful startup formation and fundraising.</p>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"79 1","pages":"631-667"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jofi.13302","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138658149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
PIERRE COLLIN-DUFRESNE, BENJAMIN JUNGE, ANDERS B. TROLLE
We study the extent to which credit index (CDX) options are priced consistent with S&P 500 (SPX) equity index options. We derive analytical expressions for CDX and SPX options within a structural credit-risk model with stochastic volatility and jumps using new results for pricing compound options via multivariate affine transform analysis. The model captures many aspects of the joint dynamics of CDX and SPX options. However, it cannot reconcile the relative levels of option prices, suggesting that credit and equity markets are not fully integrated. A strategy of selling CDX volatility yields significantly higher excess returns than selling SPX volatility.
{"title":"How Integrated are Credit and Equity Markets? Evidence from Index Options","authors":"PIERRE COLLIN-DUFRESNE, BENJAMIN JUNGE, ANDERS B. TROLLE","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13300","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the extent to which credit index (CDX) options are priced consistent with S&P 500 (SPX) equity index options. We derive analytical expressions for CDX and SPX options within a structural credit-risk model with stochastic volatility and jumps using new results for pricing compound options via multivariate affine transform analysis. The model captures many aspects of the joint dynamics of CDX and SPX options. However, it cannot reconcile the relative levels of option prices, suggesting that credit and equity markets are not fully integrated. A strategy of selling CDX volatility yields significantly higher excess returns than selling SPX volatility.</p>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"79 2","pages":"949-992"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jofi.13300","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140137811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Do illegal insiders internalize legal risk? We address this question with hand-collected data from 530 SEC (the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) investigations. Using two plausibly exogenous shocks to expected penalties, we show that insiders trade less aggressively and earlier and concentrate on tips of greater value when facing a higher risk. The results match the predictions of a model where an insider internalizes the impact of trades on prices and the likelihood of prosecution and anticipates penalties in proportion to trade profits. Our findings lend support to the effectiveness of U.S. regulations' deterrence and the long-standing hypothesis that insider trading enforcement can hamper price informativeness.
{"title":"Legal Risk and Insider Trading","authors":"MARCIN KACPERCZYK, EMILIANO S. PAGNOTTA","doi":"10.1111/jofi.13299","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.13299","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Do illegal insiders internalize legal risk? We address this question with hand-collected data from 530 SEC (the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) investigations. Using two plausibly exogenous shocks to expected penalties, we show that insiders trade less aggressively and earlier and concentrate on tips of greater value when facing a higher risk. The results match the predictions of a model where an insider internalizes the impact of trades on prices and the likelihood of prosecution and anticipates penalties in proportion to trade profits. Our findings lend support to the effectiveness of U.S. regulations' deterrence and the long-standing hypothesis that insider trading enforcement can hamper price informativeness.</p>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"79 1","pages":"305-355"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jofi.13299","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138571541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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