Journal of International Economics最新文献

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Interest rate uncertainty as a policy tool? 利率不确定性作为政策工具？

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104180

Fabio Ghironi , Galip Kemal Ozhan

We study an unconventional policy tool – interest rate uncertainty – that may be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external accounts between short-term securities and foreign direct investment (FDI). We show that identified interest rate volatility shocks in several emerging markets lower GDP growth, raise inflation, improve the current account, and depreciate the real exchange rate. In a calibrated open-economy New Keynesian model, we introduce a policy rule that endogenously adjusts the volatility of interest rate shocks in response to capital-flow drivers. The uncertainty policy discourages short-term portfolio inflows through portfolio-risk and consumption-smoothing channels, while a markup channel, reinforced by exchange-rate depreciation, attracts FDI. The strength of the markup transmission depends on exchange-rate pass-through. The uncertainty policy may be welfare improving if designed against uncertainty shocks that drive capital flows. However, it may be welfare reducing against level shocks that drive capital inflows.

我们研究了一种非常规的政策工具——利率不确定性——它可以用来阻止低效的资本流入，并调整短期证券和外国直接投资（FDI）之间的外部账户构成。我们表明，在几个新兴市场中，确定的利率波动冲击降低了GDP增长，提高了通胀，改善了经常账户，并使实际汇率贬值。在一个经过校准的开放经济新凯恩斯模型中，我们引入了一个政策规则，该规则内生地调整利率冲击的波动性，以响应资本流动驱动因素。不确定性政策通过投资组合风险和消费平滑渠道阻止短期投资组合流入，而由汇率贬值加强的加价渠道则吸引外国直接投资。加价传递的强度取决于汇率传递。如果不确定性政策是针对驱动资本流动的不确定性冲击而设计的，那么它可能会改善福利。然而，推动资本流入的可能是减少福利以应对水平冲击。

引用次数: 0

Trade, jobs, and worker welfare 贸易、就业和工人福利

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154

Erhan Artuc , Paulo Bastos , Eunhee Lee

We study the welfare effects of international trade on workers with a new dynamic general equilibrium discrete choice model of labor mobility, where the workers’ choice set of jobs is endogenous. Introducing an endogenous number of job options is crucial for matching labor flows in data and quantifying the welfare effects of trade. We exploit differential exposure of sectors and regions to destination-specific demand shocks to estimate the impacts of exports on wages, employment, and labor mobility, using matched employer–employee panel data for Brazil. The same empirical strategy is also applied to estimate structural parameters and the different components of changes in model-implied worker welfare. Counterfactual simulations confirm that the welfare effects of trade are significantly magnified by the introduction of an endogenous number of job options.

本文采用一种新的劳动力流动动态一般均衡离散选择模型来研究国际贸易对工人的福利效应，其中工人的工作选择集是内生的。引入内生数量的工作选择对于匹配数据中的劳动力流动和量化贸易的福利效应至关重要。我们利用不同行业和地区对目的地特定需求冲击的差异敞口，利用巴西匹配的雇主-雇员面板数据，估计出口对工资、就业和劳动力流动性的影响。同样的经验策略也被应用于估计结构参数和模型隐含工人福利变化的不同组成部分。反事实模拟证实，贸易的福利效应因引入内生数量的工作选择而被显著放大。

引用次数: 0

Did the 2018 trade war improve job opportunities for US workers? 2018年的贸易战是否改善了美国工人的就业机会？

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104125

Beata Javorcik , Benjamin Kett , Katherine Stapleton , Layla O’Kane

This paper uses data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the US to study the impact of the 2018 trade war on US job opportunities. We develop measures of labor market exposure to three key channels of impact from the trade war: import protection for US producers, the higher cost of imported inputs for US producers, and exposure of US exporters to retaliatory tariffs. We find evidence that both tariffs on imported inputs and retaliatory tariffs led to a relative decline in online job postings in affected commuting zones. The effects of imported input tariffs were stronger for lower skilled postings than for higher skill postings and for part-time than full-time jobs. By contrast, we do not find any evidence of positive impacts of import protection on job openings. We estimate that the tariffs led to a combined effect of 162,019 fewer job postings in 2018, or 0.6 percent of the US total.

本文利用美国网上发布的招聘广告数据，研究2018年贸易战对美国就业机会的影响。我们制定了劳动力市场暴露于贸易战影响的三个关键渠道的措施：美国生产商的进口保护，美国生产商进口投入成本上升，以及美国出口商面临报复性关税的风险。我们发现有证据表明，对进口投入品征收关税和报复性关税都会导致受影响通勤区网上招聘信息的相对下降。进口投入关税对低技能岗位的影响强于对高技能岗位的影响，对兼职岗位的影响强于全职岗位。相比之下，我们没有发现任何证据表明进口保护对就业机会有积极影响。我们估计，这些关税导致2018年就业岗位总数减少162019个，占美国就业岗位总数的0.6%。

引用次数: 0

Economic diversity and the resilience of cities 经济多样性和城市韧性

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104184

François de Soyres , Simon Fuchs , Illenin O. Kondo , Helene Maghin

We develop a framework to assess how economic shocks affect local labor markets and worker welfare, with a focus on city-level economic diversity. Using detailed worker flow data across cities, sectors, and occupations, we construct theory-consistent welfare measures. Our approach combines a dynamic discrete choice model with a dual representation that captures both direct effects and the insurance value of local economic diversity. Applied to French labor markets, we find that diversification dampens the effect of negative shocks: both job-to-job moves and net inflows decline less in diverse cities than in concentrated ones. Overall, we document sizable welfare insurance gains from local economic diversity.

我们开发了一个框架来评估经济冲击如何影响当地劳动力市场和工人福利，重点关注城市层面的经济多样性。利用城市、部门和职业之间的详细劳动力流动数据，我们构建了与理论一致的福利指标。我们的方法将动态离散选择模型与双重表示相结合，以捕获当地经济多样性的直接影响和保险价值。将其应用于法国劳动力市场，我们发现多元化抑制了负面冲击的影响：与集中型城市相比，多元化城市的工作间流动和净流入下降幅度较小。总体而言，我们记录了当地经济多样性带来的可观的福利保险收益。

引用次数: 0

High public debts: Are shocks or discretionary fiscal policy to blame? 高企的公共债务：应该归咎于冲击还是自由裁量的财政政策？

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104130

Nikhil Patel, Adrian Peralta-Alva

Public debt to GDP ratios have experienced significant fluctuations over both short and long horizons. Notably, the ratio spiked globally in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, before retracting substantially by 2022. To elucidate the driving forces behind these movements, we develop a structural decomposition of debt dynamics using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) identified through narrative sign restrictions. Analyzing data from 17 advanced economies since the 1980s, we find that shocks to GDP growth and interest rates collectively account for more than half of the observed annual variation in debt to GDP ratios, while discretionary fiscal policy changes contribute less than 20%. Our analysis also reveals that the primary balance multiplier on GDP is minimal. We reconcile our findings with existing literature by demonstrating that previous discrepancies arise largely from differences in shock identification methods, but also on account of cross-country heterogeneity.

公共债务与国内生产总值的比率在短期和长期都经历了重大波动。值得注意的是，由于2019冠状病毒病大流行，这一比例在2020年全球飙升，然后到2022年大幅回落。为了阐明这些运动背后的驱动力，我们使用通过叙事符号限制识别的结构向量自回归（SVAR）开发了债务动态的结构分解。我们分析了自20世纪80年代以来17个发达经济体的数据，发现对GDP增长和利率的冲击共同占到观察到的债务与GDP比率年度变化的一半以上，而可自由支配的财政政策变化贡献不到20%。我们的分析还表明，初级平衡乘数对GDP的影响是最小的。我们将我们的研究结果与现有文献相一致，证明先前的差异主要是由于休克识别方法的差异，但也由于跨国异质性。

引用次数: 0

Foreign direct investment as a long-term capital flow channel: Evidence from Japan 外国直接投资作为长期资本流动渠道：来自日本的证据

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104158

Naohisa Hirakata , Mitsuru Katagiri

This paper investigates the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in accounting for the long-term trend of capital flows under demographic changes. For this purpose, we incorporate horizontal FDI under the proximity-concentration trade-off into a two-country DSGE model and conduct a quantitative analysis using long-term Japanese data for capital flows since the 1960s. The quantitative analysis finds that the transition dynamics solely driven by demographic changes well account for the long-term trend of capital flows and that multinational firms’ endogenous decision on FDI in response to population aging is key to explaining the long-term trend.

本文研究了外国直接投资（FDI）对人口结构变化下资本流动长期趋势的影响。为此，我们将接近-集中权衡下的横向FDI纳入两国DSGE模型，并使用日本自20世纪60年代以来的长期资本流动数据进行定量分析。定量分析发现，仅由人口变化驱动的转型动态很好地解释了资本流动的长期趋势，跨国公司应对人口老龄化的内生FDI决策是解释长期趋势的关键。

引用次数: 0

Why global and local solutions of open-economy models with incomplete markets differ and why it matters 为什么不完全市场的开放经济模式的全球解决方案和地方解决方案不同？为什么这很重要

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104142

Oliver de Groot , C. Bora Durdu , Enrique G. Mendoza

We compare global (fixed-point iteration) and local (first-order, higher-order, risky-steady-state, and quasi-linear) solutions of open-economy incomplete-markets models. Cyclical moments of a workhorse endowment model are broadly in line with the data and similar across solutions calibrated to the same data targets, but impulse responses and spectral densities differ. Alternative local solutions yield nearly identical results. Calibrating them requires nontrivial interest-rate elasticities that make net foreign assets (NFA) “sticky,” causing them to differ sharply from global solutions in experiments altering precautionary savings (e.g., increasing income volatility, adding capital controls). Analytic and numerical results show that our findings are due to the near-unit-root nature of NFA under incomplete markets and imprecise solutions of their autocorrelation. These findings extend to a Sudden Stops model with an occasionally binding collateral constraint. In addition, quasi-linear methods yield smaller financial premia and macroeconomic responses when the constraint binds.

我们比较了开放经济不完全市场模型的全局（定点迭代）和局部（一阶、高阶、风险稳态和准线性）解。工作马禀赋模型的周期矩与数据大致一致，并且针对相同数据目标校准的解决方案相似，但脉冲响应和谱密度不同。其他的局部解决方案产生几乎相同的结果。校准它们需要非凡的利率弹性，这使得净外国资产（NFA）具有“粘性”，导致它们在改变预防性储蓄（例如，增加收入波动性，增加资本管制）的实验中与全球解决方案截然不同。分析和数值结果表明，我们的发现是由于NFA在不完全市场下的近单位根性质及其自相关解的不精确。这些发现延伸到具有偶尔约束的附带约束的突然停止模型。此外，准线性方法在约束约束下产生较小的金融溢价和宏观经济响应。

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引用次数: 0

The business cycle volatility puzzle: Emerging vs developed economies 商业周期波动之谜：新兴经济体vs发达经济体

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104182

Lucía Casal , Rafael Guntin

We study the drivers of business cycle volatility differences between emerging and developed economies. We develop a multisector small open economy framework with heterogeneous firms and production linkages in which firms are subject to sectoral and firm-level TFP shocks and international prices shocks. Using sector-level, firm-level, and international trade data from various developed and emerging economies, we quantify the relevant model-based sufficient statistics. We find that differences in sectoral composition between emerging and developed economies can explain up to 77% of the excessive business cycle volatility in emerging economies, while disparities in the distribution of firms account for up to 9%, and the role of international prices shocks is negligible. Despite the significant influence of sectoral composition, the decrease in volatility observed in emerging economies over the past four decades cannot be attributed to changes in their economic structure.

我们研究了新兴经济体和发达经济体之间商业周期波动差异的驱动因素。我们开发了一个多部门小型开放经济框架，其中包括异质企业和生产联系，其中企业受到部门和公司层面的全要素生产率冲击以及国际价格冲击。利用来自各个发达经济体和新兴经济体的行业层面、企业层面和国际贸易数据，我们量化了相关的基于充分统计的模型。我们发现，新兴经济体和发达经济体之间部门构成的差异可以解释新兴经济体中77%的过度商业周期波动，而企业分布的差异可以解释高达9%的过度商业周期波动，国际价格冲击的作用可以忽略不计。尽管部门构成有重大影响，但新兴经济体在过去四十年中观察到的波动性下降不能归因于其经济结构的变化。

引用次数: 0

Argentina: The honor student—By merit and by mistake. A natural experiment on “information effects” 阿根廷：优等生——有优点也有缺点。关于“信息效应”的自然实验

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104177

Oscar Meneses, Lorenzo Menna, Martin Tobal

On January 7, 2025, Argentina's EMBI spread plunged by over 114 basis points. J.P. Morgan later revealed that the decline was due to a technical error, creating a rare natural experiment—an exogenous shift in sovereign risk pricing. Because this error was neither anticipated nor related to Argentina's fundamentals or global conditions, the experiment provides a unique setting to identify the “information effect,” whereby investors update their beliefs in response to noisy signals embedded in price movements. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach and high-frequency (intraday) stock market data, we find that Argentine equities outperformed those of other EMEs during the error window, indicating that investors revised their asset valuations based on mispriced signals. These results underscore the importance of clear and timely communication in emerging market economies to prevent second-order effects that, despite solid fundamentals, can trigger herding behavior and macrofinancial instability.

2025年1月7日，阿根廷EMBI利差暴跌超过114个基点。摩根大通后来透露，这一下降是由于一个技术错误，创造了一个罕见的自然实验——主权风险定价的外生变化。由于这一错误既没有预料到，也与阿根廷的基本面或全球状况无关，因此该实验提供了一个独特的环境来识别“信息效应”，即投资者根据价格变动中嵌入的嘈杂信号更新他们的信念。利用差中之差方法和高频（盘中）股市数据，我们发现阿根廷股票在错误窗口期间的表现优于其他eme，表明投资者根据错误定价信号修正了资产估值。这些结果强调了新兴市场经济体明确和及时沟通的重要性，以防止二阶效应，尽管基本面稳固，但可能引发羊群行为和宏观金融不稳定。

引用次数: 0

Service Trade, regional specialization, and welfare 服务贸易、区域专业化与社会福利

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104178

Yuancheng Han , Jorge Miranda-Pinto , Satoshi Tanaka

How much does trade in services affect regional production specialization and welfare? Using unique Canadian trade data, we document that the size of inter-provincial service trade is comparable to that of good trade, and that net exports of services are highly correlated with the value-added share of services across provinces. With a spatial model featuring domestic and international trade, we quantify the effects of service trade. Our results highlight that domestic service trade significantly promotes regional specialization, with heterogeneous welfare gains that reduce regional disparities. Conversely, international service trade generates more uniform welfare gains across provinces.

服务贸易对区域生产专业化和福利的影响有多大？利用独特的加拿大贸易数据，我们证明了省际服务贸易的规模与商品贸易的规模相当，服务的净出口与各省间服务的增值份额高度相关。通过构建国内贸易与国际贸易的空间模型，量化了服务贸易的影响。我们的研究结果表明，国内服务贸易显著促进了区域专业化，异质性福利收益减少了区域差异。相反，国际服务贸易在各省之间产生的福利收益更加统一。

引用次数: 0

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