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Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia 量化宽松与安全资产供给:来自国际债券安全溢价的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104146
Jens H.E. Christensen , Nikola N. Mirkov , Xin Zhang
Through large-scale asset purchases, widely known as quantitative easing (QE), central banks around the world have affected the supply of safe assets by buying quasi-safe bonds in exchange for truly safe reserves. We examine the pricing effects of the European Central Bank’s bond purchases in the 2015–2021 period on an international panel of bond safety premia from four highly rated countries: Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland. We find statistically significant negative effects for all four countries, highlighting an international spillover channel through which QE programs reduce bond safety premia by expanding the supply of truly safe assets.
通过大规模资产购买,即众所周知的量化宽松(QE),世界各国央行通过购买准安全债券以换取真正安全的储备,影响了安全资产的供应。我们研究了欧洲央行在2015-2021年期间购买债券对四个高评级国家(丹麦、德国、瑞典和瑞士)债券安全溢价的定价影响。我们发现,在统计上,这四个国家都存在显著的负面影响,这凸显了量化宽松计划通过扩大真正安全资产的供应来降低债券安全溢价的国际溢出渠道。
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引用次数: 0
The Real effects of Brexit on labor demand: Evidence from firm-level data 英国脱欧对劳动力需求的实际影响:来自企业层面数据的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104129
Hang Do , Kiet Tuan Duong , Luu Duc Toan Huynh , Nam T. Vu
Using the distance to the Irish border of UK firms that have not changed their location since the 2016 Referendum to isolate the effects of Brexit at the firm level, we find that Brexit implementation in 2020 caused exposed firms to cut their workforce by up to 15.7% on average relative to non-exposed firms. These exposed firms are also more likely to have lower growth expectations and more likely to increase their research and development (R&D) expenditure. In addition, having ex-ante trade exposure, either with or outside the EU, can help alleviate such negative effects of Brexit. Such results highlight the role of trade exposure and the expectation channel, and support the hypothesis that firms prioritize innovations in response to Brexit.
利用自2016年公投以来未改变其所在地的英国公司与爱尔兰边境的距离来隔离英国脱欧在公司层面的影响,我们发现,2020年实施英国脱欧导致受影响的公司相对于未受影响的公司平均削减高达15.7%的劳动力。这些受影响的公司也更有可能有较低的增长预期,更有可能增加他们的研发支出。此外,拥有事先的贸易敞口,无论是与欧盟还是与欧盟以外的国家,都有助于减轻英国脱欧的负面影响。这些结果突出了贸易风险敞口和预期渠道的作用,并支持了企业优先考虑创新以应对英国退欧的假设。
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引用次数: 0
Chinese roads in India: The effect of transport infrastructure on economic development 中国在印度的公路:交通基础设施对经济发展的影响
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104140
Simon Alder
India and China followed different strategies in the design of their recent highway networks. India first focused on connecting the four largest economic centers of the country, the Golden Quadrilateral, while China had the explicit strategy of connecting intermediate-sized cities. This paper analyzes the aggregate and distributional effects of transport infrastructure in India based on a general equilibrium trade framework. I compare the effect of the Golden Quadrilateral to a counterfactual network that connects India’s intermediate-sized cities. To construct the counterfactual network, I propose a heuristic network design algorithm to maximize aggregate real income net of road construction costs in the general equilibrium model, and I show that the heuristic algorithm provides a good approximation of the optimal network. The results suggest that the actual network led to sizable aggregate gains but unequal effects across regions. The income-maximizing counterfactual network is substantially larger than the actual Indian network, would imply further aggregate gains, and would benefit the lagging regions of India.
印度和中国在最近的高速公路网设计中采用了不同的策略。印度首先把重点放在连接该国四个最大的经济中心,即黄金四边形上,而中国则有连接中等城市的明确战略。本文基于一般均衡贸易框架,分析了印度交通基础设施的总量效应和分配效应。我将黄金四边形的影响与连接印度中型城市的反事实网络进行了比较。为了构建反事实网络,我提出了一种启发式网络设计算法,以最大化一般均衡模型中道路建设成本的总实际收益净额,并且我表明启发式算法提供了最优网络的良好近似。结果表明,实际网络带来了可观的总收益,但在地区之间的影响是不平等的。收入最大化的反事实网络比实际的印度网络大得多,这意味着进一步的总收益,并将使印度落后地区受益。
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引用次数: 0
Has globalization changed the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy? 全球化是否改变了美国货币政策的国际传导?
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104139
Maximilian Boeck , Lorenzo Mori
We estimate a time-varying parameter vector autoregression to examine the evolution of international spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in light of increasing globalization in real and financial markets. We find that the adverse international effects of a U.S. tightening have substantially increased over the past three decades, peaking during the Great Recession before stabilizing – a timing that aligns well with observed trends in globalization and slowbalization dynamics. Cross-country analysis and counterfactual simulations suggest that the estimated amplification of the spillover effects over time has been primarily driven by the surge in trade integration, while rising financial integration has contributed only modestly.
我们估计了一个时变参数向量自回归来检验在实体和金融市场日益全球化的情况下美国货币政策的国际溢出效应的演变。我们发现,在过去三十年中,美国紧缩政策对国际的不利影响大幅增加,在大衰退期间达到顶峰,然后趋于稳定——这一时间点与我们观察到的全球化和缓慢化趋势非常吻合。跨国分析和反事实模拟表明,随着时间的推移,溢出效应的估计放大主要是由贸易一体化的激增推动的,而金融一体化的上升仅起了很小的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Multinational production, technology diffusion, and economic growth 跨国生产、技术扩散和经济增长
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104137
Sheng Cai , Wei Xiang
We develop a tractable growth model to study the dynamic macroeconomic effects of multinational production (MP) across countries. In this framework, MP serves as the channel of international idea diffusion: when firms operate in a foreign country, they contribute to the local stock of knowledge. By embedding this mechanism into a quantitative model of trade and MP, we characterize the evolution of bilateral MP flows, trade flows, and technology dynamics across 54 economies. Counterfactual analysis reveals that reduction in MP costs boosted economic growth, especially in developing economies. We show that a 10-year MP sanction on Russia would reduce the welfare by 9.11%, although the immediate effect is small. We find that increasing outward MP costs for U.S. firms has immediate positive wage effects but negative growth implications. Additionally, a 10% increase in U.S. inward trade costs results in a 0.2% decline in the country’s present value of welfare.
我们开发了一个易于处理的增长模型来研究跨国生产(MP)的动态宏观经济效应。在这个框架中,知识产权充当了国际思想传播的渠道:当企业在外国经营时,它们为当地的知识储备做出了贡献。通过将这一机制嵌入贸易和出口出口的定量模型,我们描绘了54个经济体双边出口出口流动、贸易流动和技术动态的演变特征。反事实分析表明,MP成本的降低促进了经济增长,尤其是在发展中经济体。我们表明,国会对俄罗斯的10年制裁将使福利减少9.11%,尽管直接影响很小。我们发现,对美国企业来说,增加外部MP成本对工资有直接的积极影响,但对增长有负面影响。此外,美国对内贸易成本每增加10%,美国的福利现值就会下降0.2%。
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引用次数: 0
High public debts: Are shocks or discretionary fiscal policy to blame? 高企的公共债务:应该归咎于冲击还是自由裁量的财政政策?
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104130
Nikhil Patel, Adrian Peralta-Alva
Public debt to GDP ratios have experienced significant fluctuations over both short and long horizons. Notably, the ratio spiked globally in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, before retracting substantially by 2022. To elucidate the driving forces behind these movements, we develop a structural decomposition of debt dynamics using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) identified through narrative sign restrictions. Analyzing data from 17 advanced economies since the 1980s, we find that shocks to GDP growth and interest rates collectively account for more than half of the observed annual variation in debt to GDP ratios, while discretionary fiscal policy changes contribute less than 20%. Our analysis also reveals that the primary balance multiplier on GDP is minimal. We reconcile our findings with existing literature by demonstrating that previous discrepancies arise largely from differences in shock identification methods, but also on account of cross-country heterogeneity.
公共债务与国内生产总值的比率在短期和长期都经历了重大波动。值得注意的是,由于2019冠状病毒病大流行,这一比例在2020年全球飙升,然后到2022年大幅回落。为了阐明这些运动背后的驱动力,我们使用通过叙事符号限制识别的结构向量自回归(SVAR)开发了债务动态的结构分解。我们分析了自20世纪80年代以来17个发达经济体的数据,发现对GDP增长和利率的冲击共同占到观察到的债务与GDP比率年度变化的一半以上,而可自由支配的财政政策变化贡献不到20%。我们的分析还表明,初级平衡乘数对GDP的影响是最小的。我们将我们的研究结果与现有文献相一致,证明先前的差异主要是由于休克识别方法的差异,但也由于跨国异质性。
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引用次数: 0
Tickets to the global market: First US patent award and Chinese firm exports 通往全球市场的门票:首个美国专利奖和中国企业出口
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104124
Robin Kaiji Gong , Yao Amber Li , Kalina Manova , Stephen Teng Sun
We investigate how international patent activity enables firms from emerging economies to thrive in the global marketplace. We match Chinese customs data to US patent records, and leverage the quasi-random assignment of USPTO patent examiners to identify the causal effect of a US patent grant on the subsequent export performance of Chinese firms. Successful first-time patent applicants achieve significantly higher export growth, compared to otherwise similar first-time applicants that failed. This effect operates only in small part through market protection for technologically patent-related products in the US, and is largely driven by expansion in other markets. The response across destinations and products reveals that a US patent award signals the Chinese firm’s capacity to produce high-quality products and credibility to honor contracts, mitigating information frictions in international trade. There is little evidence for the relaxation of financial constraints or the promotion of follow-on innovation.
我们研究国际专利活动如何使新兴经济体的公司在全球市场上茁壮成长。我们将中国海关数据与美国专利记录相匹配,并利用美国专利商标局专利审查员的准随机分配来确定美国专利授予对中国企业后续出口绩效的因果关系。与其他类似的首次专利申请人失败的情况相比,成功的首次专利申请人实现了显著更高的出口增长。这种效应只有一小部分是通过美国对技术专利相关产品的市场保护来实现的,而在很大程度上是由其他市场的扩张推动的。目的地和产品之间的反应表明,获得美国专利标志着中国企业有能力生产高质量的产品和履行合同的信誉,减轻了国际贸易中的信息摩擦。几乎没有证据表明会放松财政限制或促进后续创新。
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引用次数: 0
Reprint of: Demographics and real interest rates across countries and over time 转载自:各国和各时期的人口统计和实际利率
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104136
Carlos Carvalho , Andrea Ferrero , Felipe Mazin , Fernanda Nechio
We explore implications of demographic trends for real interest rates across countries and over time in a tractable multicountry model with imperfect capital mobility. We calibrate it to examine how the interaction of international financial integration and both domestic and foreign demographics shapes low-frequency movements in a country’s real rate. In more financially integrated countries, real rates are more sensitive to global developments than to domestic factors. We estimate panel error-correction models relating real rates to various drivers, imposing some structure informed by the model. Empirical results confirm global factors and domestic demographics are robust determinants of real rates. Alternative specifications highlight the importance of accounting for time-varying financial integration and a broad set of real rate drivers. Both model and empirical results suggest demographic trends explain a meaningful share of the global decline in real rates. Given projections, demographics should continue to exert downward pressure on real rates.
我们在一个不完全资本流动的可处理的多国模型中探索人口趋势对各国实际利率的影响。我们对其进行校准,以研究国际金融一体化与国内外人口结构的相互作用如何影响一国实际汇率的低频波动。在金融一体化程度较高的国家,实际利率对全球发展比对国内因素更为敏感。我们估计了面板误差修正模型,将实际利率与各种驱动因素联系起来,强加一些由模型告知的结构。实证结果证实,全球因素和国内人口结构是实际利率的有力决定因素。替代规范强调了考虑时变金融整合和广泛的实际利率驱动因素的重要性。模型和实证结果都表明,人口趋势在很大程度上解释了全球实际利率的下降。根据预测,人口结构应该会继续对实际利率施加下行压力。
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引用次数: 0
Reprint of: Inequality and optimal monetary policy in the open economy 转载:开放经济中的不平等与最优货币政策
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104132
Sushant Acharya , Edouard Challe
We study optimal monetary policy in a tractable Small Open Economy Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (SOE-HANK) model in which households face uninsured idiosyncratic risk and unequal bond-market access. We derive conditions under which optimal policy in our SOE-HANK economy entails domestic producer price stability, extending the ”open-economy divine coincidence” result of Galí and Monacelli (2005) beyond the Representative-Agent benchmark (SOE-RANK). Away from those conditions, inefficient fluctuations in consumption inequality generate monetary policy tradeoffs. Under plausible calibrations for the trade elasticities, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, and the cyclicality of income risk, the central bank stabilizes output and the exchange rate more than in SOE-RANK.
本文研究了一个可控制的小型开放经济异质代理新凯恩斯(SOE-HANK)模型下的最优货币政策,该模型中家庭面临无保险的特殊风险和不平等的债券市场准入。我们推导出我国国有企业- hank经济中最优政策需要国内生产者价格稳定的条件,将Galí和Monacelli(2005)的“开放经济神圣巧合”结果扩展到代表-代理基准(SOE-RANK)之外。在这些条件之外,消费不平等的低效波动会导致货币政策的权衡。在贸易弹性、跨期替代弹性和收入风险周期性的合理校准下,央行比SOE-RANK更能稳定产出和汇率。
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引用次数: 0
Do investor differences impact monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets? 投资者差异是否会影响货币政策对新兴市场的溢出效应?
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104100
Ester Faia , Karen K. Lewis , Haonan Zhou
We re-examine monetary policy spillovers to Emerging Market Economies (EME) in the form of capital flow reversals, using sectoral-level securities holdings data for Euro Area investors. In response to a surprise monetary tightening, active investors such as investment funds re-balance their portfolios away from EME, while more passive, long term investors such as insurance funds and banks exhibit no significant reaction on average. For active investors, the reallocation out of EME appears stronger under synchronized monetary tightening between the Fed and the ECB. However, these investors may even inject more capital to EME securities when the monetary tightening surprises contain positive news about the Euro Area economy. Issuers’ monetary–fiscal stability may explain the heterogeneous impact of these spillovers.
我们使用欧元区投资者的部门级证券持有数据,以资本流动逆转的形式重新审视货币政策对新兴市场经济体(EME)的溢出效应。为应对出人意料的货币紧缩,投资基金等主动投资者会重新平衡其投资组合,减少对新兴市场的投资,而保险基金和银行等更为被动的长期投资者平均而言没有明显反应。对于活跃投资者而言,在美联储和欧洲央行同步收紧货币政策的情况下,EME的再配置似乎更为强劲。然而,当货币紧缩意外包含有关欧元区经济的积极消息时,这些投资者甚至可能向EME证券注入更多资金。发行者的货币财政稳定性可以解释这些溢出效应的不同影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of International Economics
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