Journal of International Economics最新文献

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Can trade policy change gender equality? Evidence from Chile 贸易政策能改变性别平等吗？来自智利的证据

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104143

Utsa Banerjee , Luis Castro Peñarrieta , Pavel Chakraborty

Do firms reorganize gender composition of their employment in response to trade shocks? Using novel data on gender composition of employment across several occupational groups for Chilean manufacturing firms matched with customs data for 1995–2007, a developing country with low gender equality, and utilizing the 1998 Chile–Mexico Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as the quasi-natural shock, we document the first evidence that the share of female white-collar workers increased by 10% for new exporters exporting to Mexico due to the FTA. This happened through a substitution effect from male to female high-skilled workers due to higher use of technology (both domestic and foreign), high-skilled non-production tasks, and reduction in discrimination. We also show that this increase in this share of white-collar female workers is due to a demand- rather than supply-side effect. Overall, we emphasize that trade policy can play an important role in addressing the gender gap in employment.

为了应对贸易冲击，企业是否重组了其雇员的性别构成？利用智利制造业多个职业群体就业性别构成的新数据与1995-2007年（性别不平等程度较低的发展中国家）的海关数据相匹配，并利用1998年智利-墨西哥自由贸易协定（FTA）作为准自然冲击，我们首次证明，由于自由贸易协定，向墨西哥出口的新出口商中女性白领的比例增加了10%。这是通过男性对女性高技能工人的替代效应发生的，这是由于更多地使用技术（国内和国外）、高技能非生产任务和减少歧视。我们还表明，白领女性比例的增加是由于需求而非供给方面的影响。总体而言，我们强调贸易政策可以在解决就业中的性别差距方面发挥重要作用。

引用次数: 0

A search and learning model of export dynamics 出口动态的搜索与学习模型

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104155

Jonathan Eaton , Marcela Eslava , David Jinkins , C.J. Krizan , James Tybout

Exporting is harder than selling at home, and overcoming barriers takes time. We identify key obstacles to exporting and measure their importance by developing a model of firm-level export dynamics with costly customer search, visibility effects, and learning about product appeal. Fitting the model to U.S. import data on Colombian manufactures, we replicate patterns of exporter maturation. A firm’s customer base and market knowledge are valuable intangible assets: losing both through “market amnesia” would cost Colombian exporters US$14.2 billion, over twice annual exports to the U.S. About a quarter of this reflects lost future sales to current customers; the rest stems from the cost of relearning product appeal and regaining visibility. The frictions we estimate slow trade’s response to shocks: the 10-year export sales response to an exchange rate shock is 48 percent larger than the 1-year response.

出口比在国内销售更难，克服障碍需要时间。我们确定出口的主要障碍，并通过开发公司层面的出口动态模型来衡量其重要性，该模型包含昂贵的客户搜索、可见性效应和对产品吸引力的了解。将该模型拟合到美国对哥伦比亚制造业的进口数据中，我们复制了出口商成熟的模式。公司的客户基础和市场知识是宝贵的无形资产：如果因“市场失忆”而失去这两者，哥伦比亚出口商将损失142亿美元，相当于对美国年出口额的两倍多。剩下的成本来自重新学习产品吸引力和重新获得知名度的成本。我们估计的摩擦减缓了贸易对冲击的反应：10年出口销售对汇率冲击的反应比1年的反应大48%。

引用次数: 0

Trade, jobs, and worker welfare 贸易、就业和工人福利

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154

Erhan Artuc , Paulo Bastos , Eunhee Lee

We study the welfare effects of international trade on workers with a new dynamic general equilibrium discrete choice model of labor mobility, where the workers’ choice set of jobs is endogenous. Introducing an endogenous number of job options is crucial for matching labor flows in data and quantifying the welfare effects of trade. We exploit differential exposure of sectors and regions to destination-specific demand shocks to estimate the impacts of exports on wages, employment, and labor mobility, using matched employer–employee panel data for Brazil. The same empirical strategy is also applied to estimate structural parameters and the different components of changes in model-implied worker welfare. Counterfactual simulations confirm that the welfare effects of trade are significantly magnified by the introduction of an endogenous number of job options.

本文采用一种新的劳动力流动动态一般均衡离散选择模型来研究国际贸易对工人的福利效应，其中工人的工作选择集是内生的。引入内生数量的工作选择对于匹配数据中的劳动力流动和量化贸易的福利效应至关重要。我们利用不同行业和地区对目的地特定需求冲击的差异敞口，利用巴西匹配的雇主-雇员面板数据，估计出口对工资、就业和劳动力流动性的影响。同样的经验策略也被应用于估计结构参数和模型隐含工人福利变化的不同组成部分。反事实模拟证实，贸易的福利效应因引入内生数量的工作选择而被显著放大。

引用次数: 0

The tails of gravity: Using expectiles to quantify the trade-margins effects of economic integration agreements 重力的尾部：使用预期来量化经济一体化协议的贸易边际效应

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104145

Jeffrey H. Bergstrand , Matthew W. Clance , J.M.C. Santos Silva

Although there is evidence suggesting that the effects of trade liberalizations likely vary across the distribution of trade flows, trade economists have focused almost entirely on conditional mean estimates of their trade elasticities. We propose the novel use of Poisson-based expectile regressions to estimate the heterogeneous effects of trade liberalizations across the entire conditional distribution. Like standard Poisson regression, this method does not need the dependent variable to be logged, accommodates a mass of observations at zero, and is easy to implement, allowing the estimation of gravity equations with the standard three-way fixed effects specification. Using the proposed estimator, we find systematic evidence that trade liberalizations have larger effects at the lower tail of the conditional distribution. We then use the proposed method to investigate the causes of this heterogeneity, and our results suggest that the success of trade liberalizations strongly depends on potential for expansions along the extensive margin.

尽管有证据表明，贸易自由化的影响可能因贸易流动的分布而异，但贸易经济学家几乎完全关注于对其贸易弹性的条件平均估计。我们提出了一种基于泊松的期望回归的新方法来估计贸易自由化在整个条件分布中的异质效应。与标准泊松回归一样，该方法不需要记录因变量，可以在零处容纳大量观测值，并且易于实现，允许用标准的三向固定效应规范估计重力方程。使用提出的估计量，我们发现系统证据表明贸易自由化在条件分布的下尾有更大的影响。然后，我们使用提出的方法来调查这种异质性的原因，我们的结果表明，贸易自由化的成功在很大程度上取决于沿外延边际扩张的潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Real exchange rate and net trade dynamics: Financial and trade shocks 实际汇率和净贸易动态：金融和贸易冲击

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104141

Marcos Mac Mullen , Soo Kyung Woo

This paper studies the drivers of the US real exchange rate (RER), with a particular focus on its comovement with net trade (NT) flows. We consider the entire spectrum of frequencies, as the low-frequency variation accounts for 62 and 64 percent of the unconditional variance of the RER and NT, respectively. We develop a generalization of the standard international business cycle model that successfully rationalizes the joint dynamics of the RER and NT while accounting for the major puzzles of the RER. We find that, while financial shocks are necessary to capture high frequency variation in the RER, trade shocks are essential for the lower frequency fluctuations.

本文研究了美国实际汇率（RER）的驱动因素，特别关注其与净贸易流量（NT）的变动。我们考虑了整个频谱，因为低频变化分别占RER和NT无条件方差的62%和64%。我们对标准的国际经济周期模型进行了概括，成功地合理化了RER和NT的联合动态，同时解释了RER的主要难题。我们发现，金融冲击是反映RER高频波动的必要条件，而贸易冲击则是反映较低频波动的必要条件。

引用次数: 0

Why global and local solutions of open-economy models with incomplete markets differ and why it matters 为什么不完全市场的开放经济模式的全球解决方案和地方解决方案不同？为什么这很重要

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104142

Oliver de Groot , C. Bora Durdu , Enrique G. Mendoza

We compare global (fixed-point iteration) and local (first-order, higher-order, risky-steady-state, and quasi-linear) solutions of open-economy incomplete-markets models. Cyclical moments of a workhorse endowment model are broadly in line with the data and similar across solutions calibrated to the same data targets, but impulse responses and spectral densities differ. Alternative local solutions yield nearly identical results. Calibrating them requires nontrivial interest-rate elasticities that make net foreign assets (NFA) “sticky,” causing them to differ sharply from global solutions in experiments altering precautionary savings (e.g., increasing income volatility, adding capital controls). Analytic and numerical results show that our findings are due to the near-unit-root nature of NFA under incomplete markets and imprecise solutions of their autocorrelation. These findings extend to a Sudden Stops model with an occasionally binding collateral constraint. In addition, quasi-linear methods yield smaller financial premia and macroeconomic responses when the constraint binds.

我们比较了开放经济不完全市场模型的全局（定点迭代）和局部（一阶、高阶、风险稳态和准线性）解。工作马禀赋模型的周期矩与数据大致一致，并且针对相同数据目标校准的解决方案相似，但脉冲响应和谱密度不同。其他的局部解决方案产生几乎相同的结果。校准它们需要非凡的利率弹性，这使得净外国资产（NFA）具有“粘性”，导致它们在改变预防性储蓄（例如，增加收入波动性，增加资本管制）的实验中与全球解决方案截然不同。分析和数值结果表明，我们的发现是由于NFA在不完全市场下的近单位根性质及其自相关解的不精确。这些发现延伸到具有偶尔约束的附带约束的突然停止模型。此外，准线性方法在约束约束下产生较小的金融溢价和宏观经济响应。

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引用次数: 0

Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia 量化宽松与安全资产供给：来自国际债券安全溢价的证据

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104146

Jens H.E. Christensen , Nikola N. Mirkov , Xin Zhang

Through large-scale asset purchases, widely known as quantitative easing (QE), central banks around the world have affected the supply of safe assets by buying quasi-safe bonds in exchange for truly safe reserves. We examine the pricing effects of the European Central Bank’s bond purchases in the 2015–2021 period on an international panel of bond safety premia from four highly rated countries: Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland. We find statistically significant negative effects for all four countries, highlighting an international spillover channel through which QE programs reduce bond safety premia by expanding the supply of truly safe assets.

通过大规模资产购买，即众所周知的量化宽松（QE），世界各国央行通过购买准安全债券以换取真正安全的储备，影响了安全资产的供应。我们研究了欧洲央行在2015-2021年期间购买债券对四个高评级国家（丹麦、德国、瑞典和瑞士）债券安全溢价的定价影响。我们发现，在统计上，这四个国家都存在显著的负面影响，这凸显了量化宽松计划通过扩大真正安全资产的供应来降低债券安全溢价的国际溢出渠道。

引用次数: 0

The Real effects of Brexit on labor demand: Evidence from firm-level data 英国脱欧对劳动力需求的实际影响：来自企业层面数据的证据

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104129

Hang Do , Kiet Tuan Duong , Luu Duc Toan Huynh , Nam T. Vu

Using the distance to the Irish border of UK firms that have not changed their location since the 2016 Referendum to isolate the effects of Brexit at the firm level, we find that Brexit implementation in 2020 caused exposed firms to cut their workforce by up to 15.7% on average relative to non-exposed firms. These exposed firms are also more likely to have lower growth expectations and more likely to increase their research and development (R&D) expenditure. In addition, having ex-ante trade exposure, either with or outside the EU, can help alleviate such negative effects of Brexit. Such results highlight the role of trade exposure and the expectation channel, and support the hypothesis that firms prioritize innovations in response to Brexit.

利用自2016年公投以来未改变其所在地的英国公司与爱尔兰边境的距离来隔离英国脱欧在公司层面的影响，我们发现，2020年实施英国脱欧导致受影响的公司相对于未受影响的公司平均削减高达15.7%的劳动力。这些受影响的公司也更有可能有较低的增长预期，更有可能增加他们的研发支出。此外，拥有事先的贸易敞口，无论是与欧盟还是与欧盟以外的国家，都有助于减轻英国脱欧的负面影响。这些结果突出了贸易风险敞口和预期渠道的作用，并支持了企业优先考虑创新以应对英国退欧的假设。

引用次数: 0

Chinese roads in India: The effect of transport infrastructure on economic development 中国在印度的公路：交通基础设施对经济发展的影响

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104140

Simon Alder

India and China followed different strategies in the design of their recent highway networks. India first focused on connecting the four largest economic centers of the country, the Golden Quadrilateral, while China had the explicit strategy of connecting intermediate-sized cities. This paper analyzes the aggregate and distributional effects of transport infrastructure in India based on a general equilibrium trade framework. I compare the effect of the Golden Quadrilateral to a counterfactual network that connects India’s intermediate-sized cities. To construct the counterfactual network, I propose a heuristic network design algorithm to maximize aggregate real income net of road construction costs in the general equilibrium model, and I show that the heuristic algorithm provides a good approximation of the optimal network. The results suggest that the actual network led to sizable aggregate gains but unequal effects across regions. The income-maximizing counterfactual network is substantially larger than the actual Indian network, would imply further aggregate gains, and would benefit the lagging regions of India.

印度和中国在最近的高速公路网设计中采用了不同的策略。印度首先把重点放在连接该国四个最大的经济中心，即黄金四边形上，而中国则有连接中等城市的明确战略。本文基于一般均衡贸易框架，分析了印度交通基础设施的总量效应和分配效应。我将黄金四边形的影响与连接印度中型城市的反事实网络进行了比较。为了构建反事实网络，我提出了一种启发式网络设计算法，以最大化一般均衡模型中道路建设成本的总实际收益净额，并且我表明启发式算法提供了最优网络的良好近似。结果表明，实际网络带来了可观的总收益，但在地区之间的影响是不平等的。收入最大化的反事实网络比实际的印度网络大得多，这意味着进一步的总收益，并将使印度落后地区受益。

引用次数: 0

Has globalization changed the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy? 全球化是否改变了美国货币政策的国际传导？

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104139

Maximilian Boeck , Lorenzo Mori

We estimate a time-varying parameter vector autoregression to examine the evolution of international spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in light of increasing globalization in real and financial markets. We find that the adverse international effects of a U.S. tightening have substantially increased over the past three decades, peaking during the Great Recession before stabilizing – a timing that aligns well with observed trends in globalization and slowbalization dynamics. Cross-country analysis and counterfactual simulations suggest that the estimated amplification of the spillover effects over time has been primarily driven by the surge in trade integration, while rising financial integration has contributed only modestly.

我们估计了一个时变参数向量自回归来检验在实体和金融市场日益全球化的情况下美国货币政策的国际溢出效应的演变。我们发现，在过去三十年中，美国紧缩政策对国际的不利影响大幅增加，在大衰退期间达到顶峰，然后趋于稳定——这一时间点与我们观察到的全球化和缓慢化趋势非常吻合。跨国分析和反事实模拟表明，随着时间的推移，溢出效应的估计放大主要是由贸易一体化的激增推动的，而金融一体化的上升仅起了很小的作用。

引用次数: 0

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