Journal of International Economics最新文献

英文中文

Whatever it takes to understand a central banker — Embedding their words using neural networks 不惜一切代价去理解一位央行行长——用神经网络嵌入他们的话语

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104101

Martin Baumgärtner , Johannes Zahner

Dictionary-based methods represent the most commonly used approach for quantifying the qualitative information from (central bank) communication. In this paper, we propose machine learning models that generates embeddings from words and documents. Embeddings are multidimensional numerical text representations that capture the underlying semantic relationships within text. Using a novel corpus of 22,000 documents from 128 central banks, we generate the first domain-specific embeddings for central bank communication that outperform dictionaries and existing embeddings on tasks such as predicting monetary policy shocks. We further demonstrate the efficacy of our embeddings by constructing an index that tracks the extent to which Federal Reserve communications align with an inflation-targeting stance. Our empirical results indicate that deviations from inflation-targeting language substantially affect market-based expectations and influence monetary policy decisions, significantly reducing the inflation response parameter in an estimated Taylor rule.

基于字典的方法是量化来自（中央银行）通信的定性信息的最常用方法。在本文中，我们提出了从单词和文档中生成嵌入的机器学习模型。嵌入是多维数字文本表示，它捕获文本中的底层语义关系。使用来自128家中央银行的22,000份文件的新语料库，我们为中央银行通信生成了第一个特定领域的嵌入，在预测货币政策冲击等任务上优于字典和现有嵌入。我们通过构建一个指数来跟踪美联储的沟通与通胀目标立场的一致程度，进一步证明了嵌入的有效性。我们的实证结果表明，偏离通胀目标语言会显著影响市场预期并影响货币政策决策，显著降低估计泰勒规则中的通胀响应参数。

引用次数: 0

Skill-biased imports, skill acquisition, and migration 以技能为导向的进口、技能获取和移民

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104128

Jingting Fan , Lei Li

Imported capital goods, which embody skill-complementary technologies, can increase the supply of skills in developing countries. Focusing on China and using a shift-share design, we show that city-level capital goods import growth increases the local skill share and that both skill acquisition and migration play a role. We develop and quantify a spatial equilibrium model with these two mechanisms to examine the aggregate effects of capital goods imports, accounting for trade and migration linkages between cities. Counterfactual experiments suggest that the growth in capital goods imports in China between 2000 and 2010 led to a 3.1–7.3 million increase in the stock of college graduates, representing 4.4–10.4% of the total increase over this period, with the increase disproportionately occurring in coastal regions. These endogenous skill supply responses reduce by half the increase in the aggregate skill premium due to capital goods imports.

进口的资本货物体现了与技能互补的技术，可以增加发展中国家的技能供应。我们以中国为研究对象，采用转移-份额设计，表明城市一级资本货物进口增长增加了当地技能份额，技能获取和移民都发挥了作用。我们利用这两种机制开发并量化了一个空间均衡模型，以检验资本品进口的总体效应，并考虑了城市之间的贸易和移民联系。反事实实验表明，2000年至2010年间，中国资本货物进口的增长导致大学毕业生存量增加310万至730万，占同期总增幅的4.4%至10.4%，其中沿海地区的增幅不成比例。这些内生的技能供给反应减少了一半由于资本货物进口而增加的总技能溢价。

引用次数: 0

Did the 2018 trade war improve job opportunities for US workers? 2018年的贸易战是否改善了美国工人的就业机会？

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104125

Beata Javorcik , Benjamin Kett , Katherine Stapleton , Layla O’Kane

This paper uses data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the US to study the impact of the 2018 trade war on US job opportunities. We develop measures of labor market exposure to three key channels of impact from the trade war: import protection for US producers, the higher cost of imported inputs for US producers, and exposure of US exporters to retaliatory tariffs. We find evidence that both tariffs on imported inputs and retaliatory tariffs led to a relative decline in online job postings in affected commuting zones. The effects of imported input tariffs were stronger for lower skilled postings than for higher skill postings and for part-time than full-time jobs. By contrast, we do not find any evidence of positive impacts of import protection on job openings. We estimate that the tariffs led to a combined effect of 162,019 fewer job postings in 2018, or 0.6 percent of the US total.

本文利用美国网上发布的招聘广告数据，研究2018年贸易战对美国就业机会的影响。我们制定了劳动力市场暴露于贸易战影响的三个关键渠道的措施：美国生产商的进口保护，美国生产商进口投入成本上升，以及美国出口商面临报复性关税的风险。我们发现有证据表明，对进口投入品征收关税和报复性关税都会导致受影响通勤区网上招聘信息的相对下降。进口投入关税对低技能岗位的影响强于对高技能岗位的影响，对兼职岗位的影响强于全职岗位。相比之下，我们没有发现任何证据表明进口保护对就业机会有积极影响。我们估计，这些关税导致2018年就业岗位总数减少162019个，占美国就业岗位总数的0.6%。

引用次数: 0

Household responses to trade shocks 家庭对贸易冲击的反应

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104144

Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique , Peter Levell , Matthias Parey

We study the impact of Chinese import competition in the 2000s on workers and their households in England and Wales. We document both the direct employment changes of individuals affected by trade exposure, as well as the employment response of individuals whose partner is exposed to trade. We find substantial differences by gender. Men respond to import competition by increasing labour force participation at older ages, and by moving into self-employment. This is true both in response to their own trade exposure, and as an ‘added worker effect’ when their partner is exposed to the shock. By contrast, we find no such response for women, who do not increase labour supply following shocks affecting their partners. Male workers exposed to import competition largely enter self-employed jobs in historically male-dominated occupations, as do men reacting to shocks affecting their partners.

我们研究了2000年代中国进口竞争对英格兰和威尔士工人及其家庭的影响。我们既记录了受贸易暴露影响的个人的直接就业变化，也记录了其伴侣受到贸易暴露影响的个人的就业反应。我们发现性别差异很大。男性对进口竞争的反应是增加老年劳动力的参与率，并开始自营职业。这既适用于他们自己的贸易风险敞口，也适用于当他们的伴侣受到冲击时产生的“额外工人效应”。相比之下，我们发现女性没有这种反应，她们在伴侣受到冲击后不会增加劳动力供应。面临进口竞争的男性工人大多进入了历史上以男性为主的职业，男性对影响其伴侣的冲击做出的反应也是如此。

引用次数: 0

Can trade policy change gender equality? Evidence from Chile 贸易政策能改变性别平等吗？来自智利的证据

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104143

Utsa Banerjee , Luis Castro Peñarrieta , Pavel Chakraborty

Do firms reorganize gender composition of their employment in response to trade shocks? Using novel data on gender composition of employment across several occupational groups for Chilean manufacturing firms matched with customs data for 1995–2007, a developing country with low gender equality, and utilizing the 1998 Chile–Mexico Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as the quasi-natural shock, we document the first evidence that the share of female white-collar workers increased by 10% for new exporters exporting to Mexico due to the FTA. This happened through a substitution effect from male to female high-skilled workers due to higher use of technology (both domestic and foreign), high-skilled non-production tasks, and reduction in discrimination. We also show that this increase in this share of white-collar female workers is due to a demand- rather than supply-side effect. Overall, we emphasize that trade policy can play an important role in addressing the gender gap in employment.

为了应对贸易冲击，企业是否重组了其雇员的性别构成？利用智利制造业多个职业群体就业性别构成的新数据与1995-2007年（性别不平等程度较低的发展中国家）的海关数据相匹配，并利用1998年智利-墨西哥自由贸易协定（FTA）作为准自然冲击，我们首次证明，由于自由贸易协定，向墨西哥出口的新出口商中女性白领的比例增加了10%。这是通过男性对女性高技能工人的替代效应发生的，这是由于更多地使用技术（国内和国外）、高技能非生产任务和减少歧视。我们还表明，白领女性比例的增加是由于需求而非供给方面的影响。总体而言，我们强调贸易政策可以在解决就业中的性别差距方面发挥重要作用。

引用次数: 0

A search and learning model of export dynamics 出口动态的搜索与学习模型

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104155

Jonathan Eaton , Marcela Eslava , David Jinkins , C.J. Krizan , James Tybout

Exporting is harder than selling at home, and overcoming barriers takes time. We identify key obstacles to exporting and measure their importance by developing a model of firm-level export dynamics with costly customer search, visibility effects, and learning about product appeal. Fitting the model to U.S. import data on Colombian manufactures, we replicate patterns of exporter maturation. A firm’s customer base and market knowledge are valuable intangible assets: losing both through “market amnesia” would cost Colombian exporters US$14.2 billion, over twice annual exports to the U.S. About a quarter of this reflects lost future sales to current customers; the rest stems from the cost of relearning product appeal and regaining visibility. The frictions we estimate slow trade’s response to shocks: the 10-year export sales response to an exchange rate shock is 48 percent larger than the 1-year response.

出口比在国内销售更难，克服障碍需要时间。我们确定出口的主要障碍，并通过开发公司层面的出口动态模型来衡量其重要性，该模型包含昂贵的客户搜索、可见性效应和对产品吸引力的了解。将该模型拟合到美国对哥伦比亚制造业的进口数据中，我们复制了出口商成熟的模式。公司的客户基础和市场知识是宝贵的无形资产：如果因“市场失忆”而失去这两者，哥伦比亚出口商将损失142亿美元，相当于对美国年出口额的两倍多。剩下的成本来自重新学习产品吸引力和重新获得知名度的成本。我们估计的摩擦减缓了贸易对冲击的反应：10年出口销售对汇率冲击的反应比1年的反应大48%。

引用次数: 0

Trade, jobs, and worker welfare 贸易、就业和工人福利

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154

Erhan Artuc , Paulo Bastos , Eunhee Lee

We study the welfare effects of international trade on workers with a new dynamic general equilibrium discrete choice model of labor mobility, where the workers’ choice set of jobs is endogenous. Introducing an endogenous number of job options is crucial for matching labor flows in data and quantifying the welfare effects of trade. We exploit differential exposure of sectors and regions to destination-specific demand shocks to estimate the impacts of exports on wages, employment, and labor mobility, using matched employer–employee panel data for Brazil. The same empirical strategy is also applied to estimate structural parameters and the different components of changes in model-implied worker welfare. Counterfactual simulations confirm that the welfare effects of trade are significantly magnified by the introduction of an endogenous number of job options.

本文采用一种新的劳动力流动动态一般均衡离散选择模型来研究国际贸易对工人的福利效应，其中工人的工作选择集是内生的。引入内生数量的工作选择对于匹配数据中的劳动力流动和量化贸易的福利效应至关重要。我们利用不同行业和地区对目的地特定需求冲击的差异敞口，利用巴西匹配的雇主-雇员面板数据，估计出口对工资、就业和劳动力流动性的影响。同样的经验策略也被应用于估计结构参数和模型隐含工人福利变化的不同组成部分。反事实模拟证实，贸易的福利效应因引入内生数量的工作选择而被显著放大。

引用次数: 0

The tails of gravity: Using expectiles to quantify the trade-margins effects of economic integration agreements 重力的尾部：使用预期来量化经济一体化协议的贸易边际效应

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104145

Jeffrey H. Bergstrand , Matthew W. Clance , J.M.C. Santos Silva

Although there is evidence suggesting that the effects of trade liberalizations likely vary across the distribution of trade flows, trade economists have focused almost entirely on conditional mean estimates of their trade elasticities. We propose the novel use of Poisson-based expectile regressions to estimate the heterogeneous effects of trade liberalizations across the entire conditional distribution. Like standard Poisson regression, this method does not need the dependent variable to be logged, accommodates a mass of observations at zero, and is easy to implement, allowing the estimation of gravity equations with the standard three-way fixed effects specification. Using the proposed estimator, we find systematic evidence that trade liberalizations have larger effects at the lower tail of the conditional distribution. We then use the proposed method to investigate the causes of this heterogeneity, and our results suggest that the success of trade liberalizations strongly depends on potential for expansions along the extensive margin.

尽管有证据表明，贸易自由化的影响可能因贸易流动的分布而异，但贸易经济学家几乎完全关注于对其贸易弹性的条件平均估计。我们提出了一种基于泊松的期望回归的新方法来估计贸易自由化在整个条件分布中的异质效应。与标准泊松回归一样，该方法不需要记录因变量，可以在零处容纳大量观测值，并且易于实现，允许用标准的三向固定效应规范估计重力方程。使用提出的估计量，我们发现系统证据表明贸易自由化在条件分布的下尾有更大的影响。然后，我们使用提出的方法来调查这种异质性的原因，我们的结果表明，贸易自由化的成功在很大程度上取决于沿外延边际扩张的潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Real exchange rate and net trade dynamics: Financial and trade shocks 实际汇率和净贸易动态：金融和贸易冲击

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104141

Marcos Mac Mullen , Soo Kyung Woo

This paper studies the drivers of the US real exchange rate (RER), with a particular focus on its comovement with net trade (NT) flows. We consider the entire spectrum of frequencies, as the low-frequency variation accounts for 62 and 64 percent of the unconditional variance of the RER and NT, respectively. We develop a generalization of the standard international business cycle model that successfully rationalizes the joint dynamics of the RER and NT while accounting for the major puzzles of the RER. We find that, while financial shocks are necessary to capture high frequency variation in the RER, trade shocks are essential for the lower frequency fluctuations.

本文研究了美国实际汇率（RER）的驱动因素，特别关注其与净贸易流量（NT）的变动。我们考虑了整个频谱，因为低频变化分别占RER和NT无条件方差的62%和64%。我们对标准的国际经济周期模型进行了概括，成功地合理化了RER和NT的联合动态，同时解释了RER的主要难题。我们发现，金融冲击是反映RER高频波动的必要条件，而贸易冲击则是反映较低频波动的必要条件。

引用次数: 0

Why global and local solutions of open-economy models with incomplete markets differ and why it matters 为什么不完全市场的开放经济模式的全球解决方案和地方解决方案不同？为什么这很重要

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104142

Oliver de Groot , C. Bora Durdu , Enrique G. Mendoza

We compare global (fixed-point iteration) and local (first-order, higher-order, risky-steady-state, and quasi-linear) solutions of open-economy incomplete-markets models. Cyclical moments of a workhorse endowment model are broadly in line with the data and similar across solutions calibrated to the same data targets, but impulse responses and spectral densities differ. Alternative local solutions yield nearly identical results. Calibrating them requires nontrivial interest-rate elasticities that make net foreign assets (NFA) “sticky,” causing them to differ sharply from global solutions in experiments altering precautionary savings (e.g., increasing income volatility, adding capital controls). Analytic and numerical results show that our findings are due to the near-unit-root nature of NFA under incomplete markets and imprecise solutions of their autocorrelation. These findings extend to a Sudden Stops model with an occasionally binding collateral constraint. In addition, quasi-linear methods yield smaller financial premia and macroeconomic responses when the constraint binds.

我们比较了开放经济不完全市场模型的全局（定点迭代）和局部（一阶、高阶、风险稳态和准线性）解。工作马禀赋模型的周期矩与数据大致一致，并且针对相同数据目标校准的解决方案相似，但脉冲响应和谱密度不同。其他的局部解决方案产生几乎相同的结果。校准它们需要非凡的利率弹性，这使得净外国资产（NFA）具有“粘性”，导致它们在改变预防性储蓄（例如，增加收入波动性，增加资本管制）的实验中与全球解决方案截然不同。分析和数值结果表明，我们的发现是由于NFA在不完全市场下的近单位根性质及其自相关解的不精确。这些发现延伸到具有偶尔约束的附带约束的突然停止模型。此外，准线性方法在约束约束下产生较小的金融溢价和宏观经济响应。

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