Journal of International Economics最新文献

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Can trade policy change gender equality? Evidence from Chile 贸易政策能改变性别平等吗？来自智利的证据

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104143

Utsa Banerjee , Luis Castro Peñarrieta , Pavel Chakraborty

Do firms reorganize gender composition of their employment in response to trade shocks? Using novel data on gender composition of employment across several occupational groups for Chilean manufacturing firms matched with customs data for 1995–2007, a developing country with low gender equality, and utilizing the 1998 Chile–Mexico Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as the quasi-natural shock, we document the first evidence that the share of female white-collar workers increased by 10% for new exporters exporting to Mexico due to the FTA. This happened through a substitution effect from male to female high-skilled workers due to higher use of technology (both domestic and foreign), high-skilled non-production tasks, and reduction in discrimination. We also show that this increase in this share of white-collar female workers is due to a demand- rather than supply-side effect. Overall, we emphasize that trade policy can play an important role in addressing the gender gap in employment.

为了应对贸易冲击，企业是否重组了其雇员的性别构成？利用智利制造业多个职业群体就业性别构成的新数据与1995-2007年（性别不平等程度较低的发展中国家）的海关数据相匹配，并利用1998年智利-墨西哥自由贸易协定（FTA）作为准自然冲击，我们首次证明，由于自由贸易协定，向墨西哥出口的新出口商中女性白领的比例增加了10%。这是通过男性对女性高技能工人的替代效应发生的，这是由于更多地使用技术（国内和国外）、高技能非生产任务和减少歧视。我们还表明，白领女性比例的增加是由于需求而非供给方面的影响。总体而言，我们强调贸易政策可以在解决就业中的性别差距方面发挥重要作用。

引用次数: 0

The tails of gravity: Using expectiles to quantify the trade-margins effects of economic integration agreements 重力的尾部：使用预期来量化经济一体化协议的贸易边际效应

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104145

Jeffrey H. Bergstrand , Matthew W. Clance , J.M.C. Santos Silva

Although there is evidence suggesting that the effects of trade liberalizations likely vary across the distribution of trade flows, trade economists have focused almost entirely on conditional mean estimates of their trade elasticities. We propose the novel use of Poisson-based expectile regressions to estimate the heterogeneous effects of trade liberalizations across the entire conditional distribution. Like standard Poisson regression, this method does not need the dependent variable to be logged, accommodates a mass of observations at zero, and is easy to implement, allowing the estimation of gravity equations with the standard three-way fixed effects specification. Using the proposed estimator, we find systematic evidence that trade liberalizations have larger effects at the lower tail of the conditional distribution. We then use the proposed method to investigate the causes of this heterogeneity, and our results suggest that the success of trade liberalizations strongly depends on potential for expansions along the extensive margin.

尽管有证据表明，贸易自由化的影响可能因贸易流动的分布而异，但贸易经济学家几乎完全关注于对其贸易弹性的条件平均估计。我们提出了一种基于泊松的期望回归的新方法来估计贸易自由化在整个条件分布中的异质效应。与标准泊松回归一样，该方法不需要记录因变量，可以在零处容纳大量观测值，并且易于实现，允许用标准的三向固定效应规范估计重力方程。使用提出的估计量，我们发现系统证据表明贸易自由化在条件分布的下尾有更大的影响。然后，我们使用提出的方法来调查这种异质性的原因，我们的结果表明，贸易自由化的成功在很大程度上取决于沿外延边际扩张的潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Chinese roads in India: The effect of transport infrastructure on economic development 中国在印度的公路：交通基础设施对经济发展的影响

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104140

Simon Alder

India and China followed different strategies in the design of their recent highway networks. India first focused on connecting the four largest economic centers of the country, the Golden Quadrilateral, while China had the explicit strategy of connecting intermediate-sized cities. This paper analyzes the aggregate and distributional effects of transport infrastructure in India based on a general equilibrium trade framework. I compare the effect of the Golden Quadrilateral to a counterfactual network that connects India’s intermediate-sized cities. To construct the counterfactual network, I propose a heuristic network design algorithm to maximize aggregate real income net of road construction costs in the general equilibrium model, and I show that the heuristic algorithm provides a good approximation of the optimal network. The results suggest that the actual network led to sizable aggregate gains but unequal effects across regions. The income-maximizing counterfactual network is substantially larger than the actual Indian network, would imply further aggregate gains, and would benefit the lagging regions of India.

印度和中国在最近的高速公路网设计中采用了不同的策略。印度首先把重点放在连接该国四个最大的经济中心，即黄金四边形上，而中国则有连接中等城市的明确战略。本文基于一般均衡贸易框架，分析了印度交通基础设施的总量效应和分配效应。我将黄金四边形的影响与连接印度中型城市的反事实网络进行了比较。为了构建反事实网络，我提出了一种启发式网络设计算法，以最大化一般均衡模型中道路建设成本的总实际收益净额，并且我表明启发式算法提供了最优网络的良好近似。结果表明，实际网络带来了可观的总收益，但在地区之间的影响是不平等的。收入最大化的反事实网络比实际的印度网络大得多，这意味着进一步的总收益，并将使印度落后地区受益。

引用次数: 0

The Real effects of Brexit on labor demand: Evidence from firm-level data 英国脱欧对劳动力需求的实际影响：来自企业层面数据的证据

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104129

Hang Do , Kiet Tuan Duong , Luu Duc Toan Huynh , Nam T. Vu

Using the distance to the Irish border of UK firms that have not changed their location since the 2016 Referendum to isolate the effects of Brexit at the firm level, we find that Brexit implementation in 2020 caused exposed firms to cut their workforce by up to 15.7% on average relative to non-exposed firms. These exposed firms are also more likely to have lower growth expectations and more likely to increase their research and development (R&D) expenditure. In addition, having ex-ante trade exposure, either with or outside the EU, can help alleviate such negative effects of Brexit. Such results highlight the role of trade exposure and the expectation channel, and support the hypothesis that firms prioritize innovations in response to Brexit.

利用自2016年公投以来未改变其所在地的英国公司与爱尔兰边境的距离来隔离英国脱欧在公司层面的影响，我们发现，2020年实施英国脱欧导致受影响的公司相对于未受影响的公司平均削减高达15.7%的劳动力。这些受影响的公司也更有可能有较低的增长预期，更有可能增加他们的研发支出。此外，拥有事先的贸易敞口，无论是与欧盟还是与欧盟以外的国家，都有助于减轻英国脱欧的负面影响。这些结果突出了贸易风险敞口和预期渠道的作用，并支持了企业优先考虑创新以应对英国退欧的假设。

引用次数: 0

Bank lending and firm internal capital markets following a deglobalization shock 去全球化冲击后的银行贷款和企业内部资本市场

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104119

Björn Imbierowicz , Arne Nagengast , Esteban Prieto , Ursula Vogel

We examine the effects of a deglobalization shock on bank lending, firm internal capital markets, and the real economy. Leveraging a unique dataset, we are able to observe both domestic and cross-border credit exposures of German banks as well as internal capital market dynamics within multinational corporations (MNCs). We analyze the response to the Brexit referendum shock. On average, banks reduced lending to United Kingdom (UK) firms following the shock due to increased uncertainty about future losses. More prudent banks reduced their credit more extensively, and less profitable subsidiaries experienced greater reductions. However, UK subsidiaries of large MNCs, with access to internal capital markets, offset this credit supply shock through internal funding, shielding them from negative real effects. Our findings underscore that while international financial frictions following deglobalization shocks can imply negative real effects, firms integrated into global networks mitigate these impacts through internal capital markets.

我们考察了去全球化冲击对银行贷款、企业内部资本市场和实体经济的影响。利用独特的数据集，我们能够观察德国银行的国内和跨境信贷敞口，以及跨国公司（MNCs）的内部资本市场动态。我们分析了对英国脱欧公投冲击的反应。平均而言，由于对未来损失的不确定性增加，银行在冲击后减少了对英国公司的贷款。更谨慎的银行更广泛地减少信贷，利润较低的子公司经历了更大的削减。然而，大型跨国公司的英国子公司可以进入内部资本市场，通过内部融资抵消了这种信贷供应冲击，使它们免受负面实际影响。我们的研究结果强调，虽然去全球化冲击后的国际金融摩擦可能意味着负面的实际影响，但融入全球网络的公司通过内部资本市场缓解了这些影响。

引用次数: 0

A search and learning model of export dynamics 出口动态的搜索与学习模型

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104155

Jonathan Eaton , Marcela Eslava , David Jinkins , C.J. Krizan , James Tybout

Exporting is harder than selling at home, and overcoming barriers takes time. We identify key obstacles to exporting and measure their importance by developing a model of firm-level export dynamics with costly customer search, visibility effects, and learning about product appeal. Fitting the model to U.S. import data on Colombian manufactures, we replicate patterns of exporter maturation. A firm’s customer base and market knowledge are valuable intangible assets: losing both through “market amnesia” would cost Colombian exporters US$14.2 billion, over twice annual exports to the U.S. About a quarter of this reflects lost future sales to current customers; the rest stems from the cost of relearning product appeal and regaining visibility. The frictions we estimate slow trade’s response to shocks: the 10-year export sales response to an exchange rate shock is 48 percent larger than the 1-year response.

出口比在国内销售更难，克服障碍需要时间。我们确定出口的主要障碍，并通过开发公司层面的出口动态模型来衡量其重要性，该模型包含昂贵的客户搜索、可见性效应和对产品吸引力的了解。将该模型拟合到美国对哥伦比亚制造业的进口数据中，我们复制了出口商成熟的模式。公司的客户基础和市场知识是宝贵的无形资产：如果因“市场失忆”而失去这两者，哥伦比亚出口商将损失142亿美元，相当于对美国年出口额的两倍多。剩下的成本来自重新学习产品吸引力和重新获得知名度的成本。我们估计的摩擦减缓了贸易对冲击的反应：10年出口销售对汇率冲击的反应比1年的反应大48%。

引用次数: 0

Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia 量化宽松与安全资产供给：来自国际债券安全溢价的证据

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104146

Jens H.E. Christensen , Nikola N. Mirkov , Xin Zhang

Through large-scale asset purchases, widely known as quantitative easing (QE), central banks around the world have affected the supply of safe assets by buying quasi-safe bonds in exchange for truly safe reserves. We examine the pricing effects of the European Central Bank’s bond purchases in the 2015–2021 period on an international panel of bond safety premia from four highly rated countries: Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland. We find statistically significant negative effects for all four countries, highlighting an international spillover channel through which QE programs reduce bond safety premia by expanding the supply of truly safe assets.

通过大规模资产购买，即众所周知的量化宽松（QE），世界各国央行通过购买准安全债券以换取真正安全的储备，影响了安全资产的供应。我们研究了欧洲央行在2015-2021年期间购买债券对四个高评级国家（丹麦、德国、瑞典和瑞士）债券安全溢价的定价影响。我们发现，在统计上，这四个国家都存在显著的负面影响，这凸显了量化宽松计划通过扩大真正安全资产的供应来降低债券安全溢价的国际溢出渠道。

引用次数: 0

Whatever it takes to understand a central banker — Embedding their words using neural networks 不惜一切代价去理解一位央行行长——用神经网络嵌入他们的话语

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104101

Martin Baumgärtner , Johannes Zahner

Dictionary-based methods represent the most commonly used approach for quantifying the qualitative information from (central bank) communication. In this paper, we propose machine learning models that generates embeddings from words and documents. Embeddings are multidimensional numerical text representations that capture the underlying semantic relationships within text. Using a novel corpus of 22,000 documents from 128 central banks, we generate the first domain-specific embeddings for central bank communication that outperform dictionaries and existing embeddings on tasks such as predicting monetary policy shocks. We further demonstrate the efficacy of our embeddings by constructing an index that tracks the extent to which Federal Reserve communications align with an inflation-targeting stance. Our empirical results indicate that deviations from inflation-targeting language substantially affect market-based expectations and influence monetary policy decisions, significantly reducing the inflation response parameter in an estimated Taylor rule.

基于字典的方法是量化来自（中央银行）通信的定性信息的最常用方法。在本文中，我们提出了从单词和文档中生成嵌入的机器学习模型。嵌入是多维数字文本表示，它捕获文本中的底层语义关系。使用来自128家中央银行的22,000份文件的新语料库，我们为中央银行通信生成了第一个特定领域的嵌入，在预测货币政策冲击等任务上优于字典和现有嵌入。我们通过构建一个指数来跟踪美联储的沟通与通胀目标立场的一致程度，进一步证明了嵌入的有效性。我们的实证结果表明，偏离通胀目标语言会显著影响市场预期并影响货币政策决策，显著降低估计泰勒规则中的通胀响应参数。

引用次数: 0

Industrial development and trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s WTO accession 产业发展与贸易政策不确定性：来自中国加入WTO的证据

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104106

Weidi Yuan , Difei Ouyang

This paper studies how the elimination of trade policy uncertainty around WTO accession affects China’s manufacturing sector. We find a strong cross-sectional relationship between reduced uncertainty and input and output expansion by industry. The growth effect is particularly pronounced in the most labor-intensive industries in line with China’s comparative advantage, and more so in regions with lower shipping costs and a large manufacturing base. A decomposition reveals that the industry expansion can be traced to the extensive margin of new firm entry—consistent with firm-level evidence showing only a modest response among incumbent firms.

本文研究了入世后贸易政策不确定性的消除对中国制造业的影响。我们发现不确定性降低与产业投入产出扩张之间存在很强的横截面关系。这种增长效应在符合中国比较优势的大多数劳动密集型行业尤为明显，在航运成本较低、制造业基础庞大的地区更为明显。分解表明，行业扩张可以追溯到新企业进入的广泛边际，这与企业层面的证据表明，现有企业的反应只有适度的一致。

引用次数: 0

Low interest rates, capital misallocation and welfare 低利率、资本错配和福利

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104096

Anastasios Dosis

This paper studies how the real interest rate affects the (mis)allocation of capital in a small open economy characterized by asymmetric information in the financial market. Low interest rates allow low-productivity firms to enter the pool of borrowers, imposing an information externality that negatively impacts highly productive firms and forces them to reduce their investments. This suggests that, in some cases, although lowering the interest rate can increase total investment and output, it does not necessarily improve welfare. The results align with recent empirical evidence highlighting the adverse effects of low interest rates in southern European countries.

本文研究了一个以金融市场信息不对称为特征的小型开放经济中，实际利率如何影响资本的（错误）配置。低利率允许低生产率的公司进入借款者的池，施加信息外部性，对高生产率的公司产生负面影响，迫使它们减少投资。这表明，在某些情况下，虽然降低利率可以增加总投资和产出，但并不一定能改善福利。研究结果与最近的经验证据一致，这些证据突出了低利率对南欧国家的不利影响。

引用次数: 0

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