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Multinational production, technology diffusion, and economic growth 跨国生产、技术扩散和经济增长
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104137
Sheng Cai , Wei Xiang
We develop a tractable growth model to study the dynamic macroeconomic effects of multinational production (MP) across countries. In this framework, MP serves as the channel of international idea diffusion: when firms operate in a foreign country, they contribute to the local stock of knowledge. By embedding this mechanism into a quantitative model of trade and MP, we characterize the evolution of bilateral MP flows, trade flows, and technology dynamics across 54 economies. Counterfactual analysis reveals that reduction in MP costs boosted economic growth, especially in developing economies. We show that a 10-year MP sanction on Russia would reduce the welfare by 9.11%, although the immediate effect is small. We find that increasing outward MP costs for U.S. firms has immediate positive wage effects but negative growth implications. Additionally, a 10% increase in U.S. inward trade costs results in a 0.2% decline in the country’s present value of welfare.
我们开发了一个易于处理的增长模型来研究跨国生产（MP）的动态宏观经济效应。在这个框架中，知识产权充当了国际思想传播的渠道：当企业在外国经营时，它们为当地的知识储备做出了贡献。通过将这一机制嵌入贸易和出口出口的定量模型，我们描绘了54个经济体双边出口出口流动、贸易流动和技术动态的演变特征。反事实分析表明，MP成本的降低促进了经济增长，尤其是在发展中经济体。我们表明，国会对俄罗斯的10年制裁将使福利减少9.11%，尽管直接影响很小。我们发现，对美国企业来说，增加外部MP成本对工资有直接的积极影响，但对增长有负面影响。此外，美国对内贸易成本每增加10%，美国的福利现值就会下降0.2%。
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引用次数: 0
High public debts: Are shocks or discretionary fiscal policy to blame? 高企的公共债务：应该归咎于冲击还是自由裁量的财政政策？
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104130
Nikhil Patel, Adrian Peralta-Alva
Public debt to GDP ratios have experienced significant fluctuations over both short and long horizons. Notably, the ratio spiked globally in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, before retracting substantially by 2022. To elucidate the driving forces behind these movements, we develop a structural decomposition of debt dynamics using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) identified through narrative sign restrictions. Analyzing data from 17 advanced economies since the 1980s, we find that shocks to GDP growth and interest rates collectively account for more than half of the observed annual variation in debt to GDP ratios, while discretionary fiscal policy changes contribute less than 20%. Our analysis also reveals that the primary balance multiplier on GDP is minimal. We reconcile our findings with existing literature by demonstrating that previous discrepancies arise largely from differences in shock identification methods, but also on account of cross-country heterogeneity.
公共债务与国内生产总值的比率在短期和长期都经历了重大波动。值得注意的是，由于2019冠状病毒病大流行，这一比例在2020年全球飙升，然后到2022年大幅回落。为了阐明这些运动背后的驱动力，我们使用通过叙事符号限制识别的结构向量自回归（SVAR）开发了债务动态的结构分解。我们分析了自20世纪80年代以来17个发达经济体的数据，发现对GDP增长和利率的冲击共同占到观察到的债务与GDP比率年度变化的一半以上，而可自由支配的财政政策变化贡献不到20%。我们的分析还表明，初级平衡乘数对GDP的影响是最小的。我们将我们的研究结果与现有文献相一致，证明先前的差异主要是由于休克识别方法的差异，但也由于跨国异质性。
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引用次数: 0
Tickets to the global market: First US patent award and Chinese firm exports 通往全球市场的门票：首个美国专利奖和中国企业出口
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104124
Robin Kaiji Gong , Yao Amber Li , Kalina Manova , Stephen Teng Sun
We investigate how international patent activity enables firms from emerging economies to thrive in the global marketplace. We match Chinese customs data to US patent records, and leverage the quasi-random assignment of USPTO patent examiners to identify the causal effect of a US patent grant on the subsequent export performance of Chinese firms. Successful first-time patent applicants achieve significantly higher export growth, compared to otherwise similar first-time applicants that failed. This effect operates only in small part through market protection for technologically patent-related products in the US, and is largely driven by expansion in other markets. The response across destinations and products reveals that a US patent award signals the Chinese firm’s capacity to produce high-quality products and credibility to honor contracts, mitigating information frictions in international trade. There is little evidence for the relaxation of financial constraints or the promotion of follow-on innovation.
我们研究国际专利活动如何使新兴经济体的公司在全球市场上茁壮成长。我们将中国海关数据与美国专利记录相匹配，并利用美国专利商标局专利审查员的准随机分配来确定美国专利授予对中国企业后续出口绩效的因果关系。与其他类似的首次专利申请人失败的情况相比，成功的首次专利申请人实现了显著更高的出口增长。这种效应只有一小部分是通过美国对技术专利相关产品的市场保护来实现的，而在很大程度上是由其他市场的扩张推动的。目的地和产品之间的反应表明，获得美国专利标志着中国企业有能力生产高质量的产品和履行合同的信誉，减轻了国际贸易中的信息摩擦。几乎没有证据表明会放松财政限制或促进后续创新。
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引用次数: 0
Reprint of: Demographics and real interest rates across countries and over time 转载自：各国和各时期的人口统计和实际利率
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104136
Carlos Carvalho , Andrea Ferrero , Felipe Mazin , Fernanda Nechio
We explore implications of demographic trends for real interest rates across countries and over time in a tractable multicountry model with imperfect capital mobility. We calibrate it to examine how the interaction of international financial integration and both domestic and foreign demographics shapes low-frequency movements in a country’s real rate. In more financially integrated countries, real rates are more sensitive to global developments than to domestic factors. We estimate panel error-correction models relating real rates to various drivers, imposing some structure informed by the model. Empirical results confirm global factors and domestic demographics are robust determinants of real rates. Alternative specifications highlight the importance of accounting for time-varying financial integration and a broad set of real rate drivers. Both model and empirical results suggest demographic trends explain a meaningful share of the global decline in real rates. Given projections, demographics should continue to exert downward pressure on real rates.
我们在一个不完全资本流动的可处理的多国模型中探索人口趋势对各国实际利率的影响。我们对其进行校准，以研究国际金融一体化与国内外人口结构的相互作用如何影响一国实际汇率的低频波动。在金融一体化程度较高的国家，实际利率对全球发展比对国内因素更为敏感。我们估计了面板误差修正模型，将实际利率与各种驱动因素联系起来，强加一些由模型告知的结构。实证结果证实，全球因素和国内人口结构是实际利率的有力决定因素。替代规范强调了考虑时变金融整合和广泛的实际利率驱动因素的重要性。模型和实证结果都表明，人口趋势在很大程度上解释了全球实际利率的下降。根据预测，人口结构应该会继续对实际利率施加下行压力。
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引用次数: 0
Reprint of: Inequality and optimal monetary policy in the open economy 转载：开放经济中的不平等与最优货币政策
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104132
Sushant Acharya , Edouard Challe
We study optimal monetary policy in a tractable Small Open Economy Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (SOE-HANK) model in which households face uninsured idiosyncratic risk and unequal bond-market access. We derive conditions under which optimal policy in our SOE-HANK economy entails domestic producer price stability, extending the ”open-economy divine coincidence” result of Galí and Monacelli (2005) beyond the Representative-Agent benchmark (SOE-RANK). Away from those conditions, inefficient fluctuations in consumption inequality generate monetary policy tradeoffs. Under plausible calibrations for the trade elasticities, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, and the cyclicality of income risk, the central bank stabilizes output and the exchange rate more than in SOE-RANK.
本文研究了一个可控制的小型开放经济异质代理新凯恩斯（SOE-HANK）模型下的最优货币政策，该模型中家庭面临无保险的特殊风险和不平等的债券市场准入。我们推导出我国国有企业- hank经济中最优政策需要国内生产者价格稳定的条件，将Galí和Monacelli（2005）的“开放经济神圣巧合”结果扩展到代表-代理基准（SOE-RANK）之外。在这些条件之外，消费不平等的低效波动会导致货币政策的权衡。在贸易弹性、跨期替代弹性和收入风险周期性的合理校准下，央行比SOE-RANK更能稳定产出和汇率。
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引用次数: 0
Do investor differences impact monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets? 投资者差异是否会影响货币政策对新兴市场的溢出效应？
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104100
Ester Faia , Karen K. Lewis , Haonan Zhou
We re-examine monetary policy spillovers to Emerging Market Economies (EME) in the form of capital flow reversals, using sectoral-level securities holdings data for Euro Area investors. In response to a surprise monetary tightening, active investors such as investment funds re-balance their portfolios away from EME, while more passive, long term investors such as insurance funds and banks exhibit no significant reaction on average. For active investors, the reallocation out of EME appears stronger under synchronized monetary tightening between the Fed and the ECB. However, these investors may even inject more capital to EME securities when the monetary tightening surprises contain positive news about the Euro Area economy. Issuers’ monetary–fiscal stability may explain the heterogeneous impact of these spillovers.
我们使用欧元区投资者的部门级证券持有数据，以资本流动逆转的形式重新审视货币政策对新兴市场经济体（EME）的溢出效应。为应对出人意料的货币紧缩，投资基金等主动投资者会重新平衡其投资组合，减少对新兴市场的投资，而保险基金和银行等更为被动的长期投资者平均而言没有明显反应。对于活跃投资者而言，在美联储和欧洲央行同步收紧货币政策的情况下，EME的再配置似乎更为强劲。然而，当货币紧缩意外包含有关欧元区经济的积极消息时，这些投资者甚至可能向EME证券注入更多资金。发行者的货币财政稳定性可以解释这些溢出效应的不同影响。
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引用次数: 0
Introduction: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2024 简介：美国国家经济研究局宏观经济学国际研讨会2024
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104147
Jeffrey Frankel , Hélène Rey
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引用次数: 0
Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty 贸易不确定性下的回流、自动化和劳动力市场
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104091
Hamid Firooz , Sylvain Leduc , Zheng Liu
We study the implications of trade uncertainty for reshoring, automation, and U.S. labor markets. Rising trade uncertainty creates incentives for firms to reduce exposure to foreign suppliers by moving production and distribution processes to domestic producers. However, we argue that reshoring does not necessarily bring jobs back to the home country or boost domestic wages, especially when firms have access to labor-substituting technologies such as automation. Automation improves labor productivity and facilitates reshoring, but it can also displace jobs. Furthermore, automation poses a threat that weakens the bargaining power of unskilled workers in wage negotiations, depressing their wages and raising the skill premium and wage inequality. Our model predictions are in line with industry-level empirical evidence.
我们研究了贸易不确定性对回流、自动化和美国劳动力市场的影响。不断上升的贸易不确定性促使企业将生产和分销流程转移给国内生产商，从而减少对外国供应商的敞口。然而，我们认为，回流并不一定会把工作带回母国或提高国内工资，特别是当企业有机会获得自动化等劳动力替代技术时。自动化提高了劳动生产率，促进了回流，但它也可能取代工作岗位。此外，自动化带来的威胁削弱了非熟练工人在工资谈判中的议价能力，压低了他们的工资，加剧了技能溢价和工资不平等。我们的模型预测符合行业层面的经验证据。
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引用次数: 0
Drivers of the global financial cycle 全球金融周期的驱动因素
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104088
John Rogers , Bo Sun , Wenbin Wu
Building on literature focused on the role of U.S. monetary policy in driving the global financial cycle, we quantify the relative importance of different shocks in an estimation framework that simultaneously identifies multiple shocks without timing or sign restrictions. Our analysis reveals significant roles for (i) U.S. corporate bond spreads, particularly the excess bond premium component, (ii) U.S. bank leverage, and (iii) the U.S. term premium. We additionally document a feedback loop that leads to significant amplification effects: widening U.S. corporate bond spreads trigger broad declines in global asset prices, which in turn lead to further tightening of U.S. spreads.
在关注美国货币政策在推动全球金融周期中的作用的文献基础上，我们在一个估算框架中量化了不同冲击的相对重要性，该框架可以同时识别多种冲击，而不受时间或信号限制。我们的分析揭示了以下因素的重要作用：(i)美国公司债券利差，特别是超额债券溢价部分，（ii）美国银行杠杆，以及（iii）美国期限溢价。我们还记录了一个导致显著放大效应的反馈循环：美国公司债券息差扩大引发全球资产价格普遍下跌，这反过来又导致美国息差进一步收窄。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary unions with heterogeneous fiscal space 具有异质财政空间的货币联盟
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104092
Marco Bellifemine , Adrien Couturier , Rustam Jamilov
This paper develops a multi-country Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model of a monetary union with ex-ante heterogeneity in legacy public debt across member states. We calibrate the model to the euro area and show that, following symmetric aggregate shocks, the systematic monetary policy reaction induces heterogeneous national outcomes, driven by differences in fiscal space. This generates a trade-off between union-wide macroeconomic stabilization and cross-country synchronization of economic activity for the central bank. We characterize a possibility frontier between union-wide inflation stability and cross-country synchronization, which is traced out by varying the degree of the central bank’s hawkishness towards inflation. We study the role of deficit caps, fiscal and political unions, and augmented Taylor rules as instruments to navigate the stabilization–synchronization trade-off.
本文建立了一个具有成员国遗留公共债务事前异质性的多国异质性代理新凯恩斯（HANK）货币联盟模型。我们将模型校准到欧元区，并表明，在对称的总冲击之后，系统的货币政策反应会在财政空间差异的驱动下导致异质性的国家结果。这就在整个联盟的宏观经济稳定和中央银行的跨国经济活动同步之间产生了权衡。我们描述了在全联盟范围内的通货膨胀稳定性和跨国同步之间的可能边界，这是通过改变中央银行对通货膨胀的鹰派程度来追踪的。我们研究了赤字上限、财政和政治联盟以及增强泰勒规则作为导航稳定-同步权衡的工具的作用。
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引用次数: 0
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