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Exportweltmeister: Germany’s foreign investment returns in international comparison
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104056
Franziska Hünnekes , Maximilian Konradt , Moritz Schularick , Christoph Trebesch , Julian Wingenbach
Germany is a world champion in exporting capital (“Exportweltmeister”). Few countries have invested larger amounts of savings abroad. However, we show that Germany plays in the third division when it comes to investment performance. We construct a comprehensive new database of foreign investment returns for 13 advanced economies going back to the 1970s. Germany’s foreign returns were 2 to 5 percentage points lower, per year, than those of comparable countries. Germany also earns significantly less within asset classes, especially for equities and FDI. These aggregate results are confirmed when using return data from 50,000 mutual funds worldwide. German investment funds are worse at stock picking and at timing the market than their international peers. This is particularly true for the ”Big 6” German mutual fund companies. German households would have fared much better with a passive investment strategy.
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引用次数: 0
Capital flows: The role of investment fund portfolio managers
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104062
Georgia Bush , Carlos Cañón
This paper analyzes drivers of capital flows channeled by open-ended mutual funds, disentangling flows resulting from investor behavior and those resulting from fund manager reallocation. Using security-level data from Morningstar, we construct a novel dataset of global bond funds for the period 2011 to 2017, whose holdings include securities from 18 emerging market economies. By disaggregating flows and leveraging country-fund variation, we are able to identify differentiated effects of push and pull factors on investor flows versus manager reallocation. We exploit the fund security holdings data further to implement a shift-share estimation approach. In addition, we are able to provide evidence of what institutional factors are influencing managers (liquidity, leverage, benchmarks). Finally, using textual analysis of funds’ prospectuses, we construct a measure of manager discretion, execute a difference-in-difference specification for the Taper Tantrum, and find funds with higher manager discretion were less prone to disinvesting from EMEs.
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引用次数: 0
Two illustrations of the quantity theory of money reloaded
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104058
Han Gao , Mariano Kulish , Juan Pablo Nicolini
We review the relationship between inflation, nominal interest rates, and rates of money growth for a group of OECD countries. Once regime changes are isolated in the data, the behavior of these series maintains the close relationship predicted by standard quantity theory models. With an estimated model, we show those relationships to be relatively invariant to frictions that can deliver different short-run dynamics. The trend component obtained from statistical filters does reasonably well in capturing these regime changes in estimated models. The quantity theory relationships are alive and well, and thus they are useful for policy design aimed at controlling inflation.
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引用次数: 0
Spillovers of US interest rates: Monetary policy & information effects
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104059
Santiago Camara
This paper quantifies the international spillovers of U.S. interest rates by accounting for the “Fed Response to News” channel. Using the identification strategy of Bauer and Swanson (2023a), we decompose monetary policy surprises into two components: a pure U.S. monetary policy shock and a “Fed Response to News” component around FOMC meetings. I find that a U.S. monetary tightening driven by pure policy shocks causes a global recessions, exchange rate depreciation, and tighter financial conditions. In contrast, a tightening driven by the “Fed Response to News” channel leads to an economic expansion, exchange rate appreciation, and looser financial conditions. Ignoring the “Fed Response to News” channel biases estimates, explaining recent atypical findings of expansionary impacts. By isolating these components, I reconcile traditional and recent views of monetary policy spillovers. Results are robust across advanced and emerging economies, alternative methods, and identification strategies.
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引用次数: 0
The Leisure Gains from International Trade
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104061
Agustin Velasquez
The average number of hours worked has been declining in many countries. If workers have preferences such that income effects outweigh substitution effects, then a welfare-improving response to rising income is to reduce labor supply to enjoy more leisure time. Using a multi-country Ricardian trade model, I derive an hours-to-trade elasticity that is composed by the wage (Marshallian) and trade elasticities. I estimate the hours-to-trade elasticity by exploiting exogenous income variation generated by trade. Findings suggest that a one percent increase in imports (as share of GDP) leads to a 0.17 percent decline in hours per worker. This implies dominating income effects backed by a wage elasticity of -0.16 and a trade elasticity close to unity. I quantify that the rise in trade openness between 1950 and 2014 explains, on average, 7.4 percent of the total decline in hours per worker in high-income countries.
{"title":"The Leisure Gains from International Trade","authors":"Agustin Velasquez","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The average number of hours worked has been declining in many countries. If workers have preferences such that income effects outweigh substitution effects, then a welfare-improving response to rising income is to reduce labor supply to enjoy more leisure time. Using a multi-country Ricardian trade model, I derive an hours-to-trade elasticity that is composed by the wage (Marshallian) and trade elasticities. I estimate the hours-to-trade elasticity by exploiting exogenous income variation generated by trade. Findings suggest that a one percent increase in imports (as share of GDP) leads to a 0.17 percent decline in hours per worker. This implies dominating income effects backed by a wage elasticity of -0.16 and a trade elasticity close to unity. I quantify that the rise in trade openness between 1950 and 2014 explains, on average, 7.4 percent of the total decline in hours per worker in high-income countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104061"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143552291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Import processing and trade costs
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104060
Jeronimo Carballo , Alejandro G. Graziano , Georg Schaur , Christian Volpe Martincus
We estimate import processing costs based on the time it takes to import. To do so, we first develop a theoretical model that extends existing time-cost measures to account for uncertainty in import processing. Second, we use detailed, highly disaggregated data on import processing dates and import values to provide estimates of processing costs that are consistent with the theory. This evidence indicates that our extensions to time-cost estimates are economically relevant to determining processing costs. According to our estimates, the tariff equivalent import processing cost is as high as 18 percent. WTO estimates suggest that the full implementation of the 2013 Trade Facilitation Agreement would reduce the time to trade by 1.5 days. In that case, processing costs would decrease to 13 percent.
{"title":"Import processing and trade costs","authors":"Jeronimo Carballo ,&nbsp;Alejandro G. Graziano ,&nbsp;Georg Schaur ,&nbsp;Christian Volpe Martincus","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate import processing costs based on the time it takes to import. To do so, we first develop a theoretical model that extends existing time-cost measures to account for uncertainty in import processing. Second, we use detailed, highly disaggregated data on import processing dates and import values to provide estimates of processing costs that are consistent with the theory. This evidence indicates that our extensions to time-cost estimates are economically relevant to determining processing costs. According to our estimates, the tariff equivalent import processing cost is as high as 18 percent. WTO estimates suggest that the full implementation of the 2013 Trade Facilitation Agreement would reduce the time to trade by 1.5 days. In that case, processing costs would decrease to 13 percent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 104060"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143445862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A many-location home market effect and a home biased geography
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104057
Jordan J. Norris
In the presence of scale economies, industries are incentivized to localize production. Geography is key in determining where that localization happens. The Home Market Effect (HME) predicts that locations with the largest demand are the host and become net exporters. Yet, since its origin by Krugman (1980), the prediction has only been shown to hold in two-location models, therefore questioning its generality and empirical relevance. I offer a new formalization of the HME, provide succinct, sufficient conditions for its presence in an arbitrary, many-location geography, and reveal an intimate connection of the HME with a home biased geography. Intuitively, without home bias, consumers don’t buy locally; production is therefore not incentivized to localize near them.
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引用次数: 0
Banking complexity in the global economy
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104055
Raoul Minetti , Giacomo Romanini , Oren Ziv
International lending flows are often intermediated through banking hubs and complex multi-national routing. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where global banks choose the path of direct or indirect lending through partner institutions in multiple countries. We show how conflating locational loan flows with ultimate lending biases results both by attributing ultimate lending to banking hubs, and by missing ultimate lending that occurs indirectly via third countries. We next study the effects of global banking complexity. Indirect lending allows countries to bypass shocked lending routes via alternative countries; however, it dilutes their ability to diversify sources of funds after shocks. The quantitative analysis reveals that banking complexity can exacerbate credit instability when countries feature heterogeneous banking efficiency.
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引用次数: 0
Term premia and credit risk in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104045
Pavel Solís
This paper studies how U.S. monetary policy transmits to the sovereign yields of emerging markets without ignoring credit risk. To quantify the effects, I first identify different types of surprises in U.S. monetary policy using intraday data, and then propose a novel (three-part) decomposition of emerging market yields that accounts for credit risk. I find that surprises in U.S. monetary policy lead to a reassessment of policy rate expectations and a repricing of interest rate and credit risks in emerging markets. Specifically, investors expect monetary authorities in emerging markets to follow the monetary stance of the U.S. central bank rather than counteract it, unconventional U.S. monetary policies transmit to the term premia in emerging markets similarly to the U.S. term premium, and the sovereign credit risk in emerging markets responds to changes in U.S. monetary policy.
{"title":"Term premia and credit risk in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy","authors":"Pavel Solís","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104045","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104045","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how U.S. monetary policy transmits to the sovereign yields of emerging markets without ignoring credit risk. To quantify the effects, I first identify different types of surprises in U.S. monetary policy using intraday data, and then propose a novel (three-part) decomposition of emerging market yields that accounts for credit risk. I find that surprises in U.S. monetary policy lead to a reassessment of policy rate expectations and a repricing of interest rate and credit risks in emerging markets. Specifically, investors expect monetary authorities in emerging markets to follow the monetary stance of the U.S. central bank rather than counteract it, unconventional U.S. monetary policies transmit to the term premia in emerging markets similarly to the U.S. term premium, and the sovereign credit risk in emerging markets responds to changes in U.S. monetary policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 104045"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The cleanup of US manufacturing through pollution offshoring
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104046
Jaerim Choi , Jay Hyun , Gueyon Kim , Ziho Park
We study the role of offshoring in understanding long-run environmental impacts of trade liberalization and the cleanup of US manufacturing. Leveraging establishment-level pollution emissions and business activity data and a change in US trade policy toward China in the early 2000s, we show that US establishments decrease toxic emissions in response to a reduction in trade policy uncertainty. Emission abatement is mainly driven by a decline in pollution emission intensity. We provide comprehensive evidence that highlights the role of offshoring: US manufacturers, especially those that emit pollutants intensely, source from abroad and establish more subsidiaries in China following the event.
{"title":"The cleanup of US manufacturing through pollution offshoring","authors":"Jaerim Choi ,&nbsp;Jay Hyun ,&nbsp;Gueyon Kim ,&nbsp;Ziho Park","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104046","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104046","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the role of offshoring in understanding long-run environmental impacts of trade liberalization and the cleanup of US manufacturing. Leveraging establishment-level pollution emissions and business activity data and a change in US trade policy toward China in the early 2000s, we show that US establishments decrease toxic emissions in response to a reduction in trade policy uncertainty. Emission abatement is mainly driven by a decline in pollution emission intensity. We provide comprehensive evidence that highlights the role of offshoring: US manufacturers, especially those that emit pollutants intensely, source from abroad and establish more subsidiaries in China following the event.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 104046"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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