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Russian counter-sanctions and smuggling: Forensics with structural gravity estimation 俄罗斯的反制裁和走私：利用结构重力估算进行取证
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104014
Vladimir Tyazhelnikov , John Romalis
Trade and other economic sanctions are a common foreign policy instrument, but their imposition may induce smuggling. We develop and implement procedures to study smuggling after the food embargo imposed by Russia on Western countries after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. We construct predicted trade flows for the post-sanctions period using an estimated structural general equilibrium gravity model with many industry sectors and compare those predictions with actual trade flows. We identify a substantial value of suspicious trade flows which we associate with smuggling; especially importing banned goods through third countries such as Belarus. The structural gravity model systematically under-predicts trade volumes for country–product combinations used as channels for smuggling of the banned goods. We identify a quantity of smuggling equivalent to approximately 11 to 17 percent of the pre-embargo trade flows.
贸易和其他经济制裁是一种常见的外交政策手段，但实施制裁可能会诱发走私。2014 年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后对西方国家实施了食品禁运，我们制定并实施了相关程序来研究制裁后的走私问题。我们利用一个包含多个行业部门的估计结构性一般均衡引力模型，构建了制裁后时期的贸易流量预测，并将这些预测与实际贸易流量进行了比较。我们发现了大量可疑贸易流，并将其与走私联系起来，特别是通过白俄罗斯等第三国进口违禁品。结构重力模型系统地低估了作为违禁品走私渠道的国家-产品组合的贸易量。我们确定的走私数量约相当于禁运前贸易流量的 11%至 17%。
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引用次数: 0
Immigrants, legal status, and illegal trade 移民、合法身份和非法贸易
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104016
Brett A. McCully
Nearly $2 trillion of illegally trafficked goods flow across international borders every year, generating violence and other social costs along the way. Due to the absence of legal contracts and the challenge of finding trading partners in an illegal market, traffickers may rely on co-ethnic networks to facilitate trade. In this paper, I use novel microdata on the universe of large illegal drug confiscations in Spain to provide the first causal estimates of how immigrants and immigration policy affect the pattern and scale of illegal drug trafficking. I find that immigrants increase both illegal drugs imported from and exported to their origin country, with irregular immigrants raising illegal drug imports. Doubling the number of immigrants from an origin country raises the likelihood of illegal drug imports from that country by 8 percentage points. I find suggestive evidence that granting legal status to immigrants reduces illegal drug imports.
每年有近 2 万亿美元的非法贩运物品跨越国际边界，沿途产生暴力和其他社会成本。由于缺乏合法合同，而且在非法市场中寻找贸易伙伴存在挑战，贩毒者可能会依赖同族网络来促进贸易。在本文中，我利用西班牙大宗非法毒品没收的新型微观数据，首次对移民和移民政策如何影响非法贩毒的模式和规模进行了因果估算。我发现，移民既增加了从原籍国进口的非法毒品，也增加了向原籍国出口的非法毒品，其中非正常移民增加了非法毒品进口。原籍国移民人数增加一倍，从该国非法进口毒品的可能性就会增加 8 个百分点。我发现有暗示性证据表明，给予移民合法身份会减少非法药物进口。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign competition and innovation 外国竞争和创新
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104007
Elhanan Helpman
Empirical studies have found that enhanced foreign competition can encourage or discourage innovation. To address this relationship, I examine a market structure in which a small number of large multi-product oligopolists compete with a large number of small single-product firms in the same industry. The single-product firms are short-lived while the multi-product firms live forever, and the large firms invest in innovation in order to enlarge their product spans. All firms export. I show that an increase in the competitiveness of foreign firms can increase or reduce innovation efforts of a large multi-product firm. Moreover, changes in the incentives to innovate can be different for more-productive and less-productive oligopolists. As a result, aggregate sectoral innovation may rise or decline, depending on the productivity distribution of the oligopolists. I also show that changes in short-term operating profits may not be aligned with changes in the incentives to innovate.
经验研究发现，外国竞争的加剧会鼓励或阻碍创新。为了探讨这种关系，我研究了一种市场结构，在这种结构中，少数大型多产品寡头垄断企业与大量小型单一产品企业在同一行业中竞争。单一产品企业寿命短，而多产品企业寿命长，大型企业投资创新，以扩大其产品范围。所有企业都出口。我的研究表明，外国企业竞争力的提高会增加或减少大型多产品企业的创新努力。此外，生产率较高的寡头企业和生产率较低的寡头企业的创新动力也会发生变化。因此，部门创新总量可能上升，也可能下降，这取决于寡头垄断企业的生产力分布。我还指出，短期经营利润的变化可能与创新激励的变化不一致。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial Equilibria: The Case of Two Regions 空间均衡：两个地区的案例
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104008
Konstantin Kucheryavyy , Gary Lyn , Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
In this paper we characterize the set of equilibria in a generalized version of the canonical two-region economic geography model that nests the class of models in Allen and Arkolakis (2014) as well as Krugman (1991) and features an input–output loop. We provide sufficient conditions for uniqueness of equilibria that — in contrast to the well-know result in Allen and Arkolakis (2014) — allow for positive agglomeration externalities, which concentrate economic activity, even in the absence of congestion effects, which disperse it, and highlight the key role played by three additional parameters: the trade elasticity, which regulates the strength of the dispersion force associated with the decline in the terms of trade caused by migration into a region; trade costs, which weaken this dispersion force by limiting trade across regions; and the importance of the agricultural sector, which pushes against agglomeration forces in manufacturing.
在本文中，我们描述了典型的两地区经济地理模型的广义版本的均衡集，该模型嵌套了 Allen 和 Arkolakis（2014 年）以及 Krugman（1991 年）中的一类模型，并以投入产出循环为特征。与 Allen 和 Arkolakis（2014）中众所周知的结果不同，我们为均衡的唯一性提供了充分条件，即允许正集聚外部性（集中经济活动），即使没有拥堵效应（分散经济活动），并强调了三个附加参数的关键作用：贸易弹性，用于调节因移民进入某一地区而导致贸易条件下降所产生的分散力的强度；贸易成本，通过限制跨地区贸易来削弱这种分散力；以及农业部门的重要性，它对制造业的集聚力起到推动作用。
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引用次数: 0
Is US trade policy reshaping global supply chains? 美国贸易政策是否在重塑全球供应链？
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104011
Caroline Freund , Aaditya Mattoo , Alen Mulabdic , Michele Ruta
This paper examines the reshaping of supply chains using detailed US 10-digit import data between 2017 and 2022. The results show that while US-China decoupling in bilateral trade is real, supply chains remain intertwined with China. Over the period, China's share of US imports fell from 22 % to 16 % as a result of US tariffs. US imports from China are being replaced with imports from large, developing countries with revealed comparative advantage in a product. In strategic industries, countries replacing China tend to be deeply integrated in China's supply chains and are experiencing faster import growth from China. Put differently, to displace China on the export side, countries must embrace China's supply chains. There is no consistent evidence of reshoring but evidence of nearshoring to border nations. Despite the significant reshaping, China remained the top supplier of directly imported goods to the US in 2022.
本文利用 2017 年至 2022 年美国 10 位数进口的详细数据，研究了供应链的重塑。结果显示，虽然中美双边贸易脱钩是真实的，但供应链仍与中国相互交织。在此期间，由于美国加征关税，中国在美国进口中的份额从 22% 降至 16%。美国从中国进口的产品正在被具有明显比较优势的发展中大国的进口产品所取代。在战略性产业中，取代中国的国家往往深度融入中国的供应链，从中国进口的增长速度也更快。换言之，要在出口方面取代中国，各国必须拥抱中国的供应链。目前还没有一致的证据表明中国企业进行了转移，但有证据表明中国企业向边境国家进行了近似转移。尽管出现了重大的重塑，中国在 2022 年仍然是美国直接进口商品的最大供应国。
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引用次数: 0
The network origins of trade comovement 贸易关联的网络起源
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104010
Justas Dainauskas
I develop a production network model of the world economy that features Transcendental Logarithmic (a.k.a. translog) aggregators of varieties. This gives rise to variable substitution elasticities that consistent with the evidence are inversely related to the importer expenditure shares per exporter at the country-sector level. I quantify the model using data for 1970–2018 from 19 OECD economies and 30 sectors. Compared to the analogous constant elasticity version of the model, I find that the translog model amplifies international shock transmission between major trade partners and attenuates transmission elsewhere, which to an extent resolves the “trade comovement puzzle”.
我建立了一个世界经济生产网络模型，其特点是品种的超越对数（又称转化对数）聚集器。这就产生了可变的替代弹性，这种弹性与国家-部门层面上每个出口商的进口商支出份额成反比，这与证据一致。我使用 19 个经合组织经济体和 30 个行业 1970-2018 年的数据对模型进行了量化。与类似的恒定弹性模型相比，我发现转换模型放大了主要贸易伙伴之间的国际冲击传导，削弱了其他地方的传导，这在一定程度上解决了 "贸易联动之谜"。
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引用次数: 0
Sovereign risk and intangible investment 主权风险和无形投资
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104009
Minjie Deng , Chang Liu
This paper measures the output and TFP losses from sovereign risk, considering firm-level intangible investment. Using Italian firm-level data, we show that firms reallocated from intangible assets to tangible assets during the 2011–2012 Italian sovereign debt crisis. This asset reallocation is more pronounced among small firms and high-leverage firms. This reallocation affects aggregate output and TFP. To explain the reallocation pattern and quantify the output and TFP losses, we build a sovereign default model incorporating firm intangible investment. In our model, sovereign risk deteriorates bank balance sheets, disrupting banks’ ability to finance firms. Firms with greater external financing needs are more exposed to sovereign risk. Facing tightening financial constraints, firms shift their resources towards tangibles because they can be used as collateral. We find that elevated sovereign risk explains 45% of the observed output losses and 31% of the TFP losses in Italy from 2011 to 2016.
本文考虑了企业层面的无形投资，衡量了主权风险带来的产出和全要素生产率损失。利用意大利企业层面的数据，我们发现在 2011-2012 年意大利主权债务危机期间，企业从无形资产重新分配到有形资产。这种资产重新分配在小型企业和高杠杆率企业中更为明显。这种重新配置影响了总产出和全要素生产率。为了解释这种重新分配模式并量化产出和全要素生产率损失，我们建立了一个包含企业无形投资的主权违约模型。在我们的模型中，主权风险会恶化银行资产负债表，破坏银行为企业融资的能力。外部融资需求较大的企业更容易受到主权风险的影响。面对不断收紧的金融约束，企业会将资源转向有形资产，因为有形资产可以用作抵押品。我们发现，主权风险的上升可以解释 2011 年至 2016 年意大利 45% 的产出损失和 31% 的全要素生产率损失。
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引用次数: 0
Trade liberalization and labor monopsony: Evidence from Chinese firms 贸易自由化与劳动力垄断：来自中国企业的证据
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104006
Illenin O. Kondo , Yao Amber Li , Wei Qian
We document that larger input tariff reductions were associated with lower labor markdowns in China, especially for skill-intensive firms. Guided by a stylized model of equilibrium labor market power, we leverage differences in the aggregate labor supply dynamics across labor markets – such as regional variations in China’s contemporaneous college expansion reforms – to that show trade-induced labor markdown decreased more in labor markets with more labor supply growth. Our estimates suggest that lower labor markdowns due to input trade liberalization offset China’s aggregate labor share decline by almost one-half percentage point in the early 2000s.
我们的研究结果表明，投入品关税的大幅下调与中国劳动力降价相关，尤其是对技术密集型企业而言。在均衡劳动力市场力量风格化模型的指导下，我们利用劳动力市场总劳动力供给动态的差异--如中国同时进行的高校扩招改革的地区差异--表明在劳动力供给增长较多的劳动力市场，贸易导致的劳动力降价幅度更大。我们的估计结果表明，投入品贸易自由化导致的劳动力降价抵消了 2000 年代初中国劳动力总份额下降的近半个百分点。
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引用次数: 0
Geopolitical risk perceptions 地缘政治风险认知
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005
Yevheniia Bondarenko , Vivien Lewis , Matthias Rottner , Yves Schüler
Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially.
地缘政治风险无法用普遍的方式来衡量。我们根据当地报纸的报道开发了新的地缘政治风险指标，以考虑不同的看法。以俄罗斯为例，我们证明了从当地新闻来源识别出的地缘政治风险冲击会对俄罗斯经济产生重大不利影响，而从英语新闻来源识别出的地缘政治风险冲击则不会。我们通过分别分析国家控制媒体和独立媒体来控制受限制的新闻自由。我们采用新颖的俄罗斯制裁指数，说明地缘政治风险冲击的传播超出了制裁渠道。不过，制裁还是大大加剧了地缘政治风险冲击对通货膨胀的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Public debt and household inflation expectations 公共债务和家庭通胀预期
IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of International Economics
Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104003
Francesco Grigoli , Damiano Sandri

We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt news on household inflation expectations. People tend to underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt, while confidence in fiscal authorities plays a more limited role. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects but not with a greater risk of monetary finance.

我们利用美国、英国和巴西的随机对照试验来研究公共债务新闻对家庭通胀预期的因果效应。当人们得知正确的公共债务水平时，往往会低估公共债务水平并提高通胀预期。修正的程度与信息意外的大小成正比。对中央银行的信心大大降低了通胀预期对公共债务的敏感性，而对财政当局的信心则作用有限。我们还表明，人们将高公共债务与滞胀效应联系在一起，而不是与更大的货币金融风险联系在一起。
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引用次数: 0
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