首页 > 最新文献

Journal of International Economics最新文献

英文 中文
Firm and labor adjustments to FDI liberalization 企业和劳动力调整对FDI自由化的影响
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104227
Ming-Jen Lin , Yi-Ting Wang , Sung-Ju Wu
This paper studies how liberalizing outward foreign direct investments affects manufacturers’ engagement in global production and their domestic workers’ labor market outcomes. Focusing on a liberalization policy in 2001 by the government of Taiwan that allowed 122 electronic products to be produced in China, we estimate its effect on Taiwanese electronic manufacturers and their domestic workers. Employing a matched difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the manufacturers targeted by the policy were on average 10% more likely to invest in China relative to the non-targeted ones. Correspondingly, the domestic incumbent workers of the targeted manufacturers were on average more likely to change their jobs, remain employed for fewer years, and have lower wages in subsequent years relative to those employed by the non-targeted ones. The worker-level effects of the policy exhibited substantial heterogeneity across the initial wage distribution, with top-decile workers being less affected and the remaining workers experiencing average losses.
本文研究对外直接投资自由化如何影响制造商参与全球生产及其国内工人的劳动力市场结果。​采用匹配的差异中差异策略,我们发现,与非政策目标制造商相比,政策目标制造商在中国投资的可能性平均高出10%。相应地,相对于非目标制造商的工人,目标制造商的国内在职工人平均更容易更换工作,留任年限更短,随后几年的工资也更低。该政策对工人阶层的影响在初始工资分配中表现出了巨大的异质性,前十分之一的工人受到的影响较小,其余工人则遭受平均损失。
{"title":"Firm and labor adjustments to FDI liberalization","authors":"Ming-Jen Lin ,&nbsp;Yi-Ting Wang ,&nbsp;Sung-Ju Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104227","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104227","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how liberalizing outward foreign direct investments affects manufacturers’ engagement in global production and their domestic workers’ labor market outcomes. Focusing on a liberalization policy in 2001 by the government of Taiwan that allowed 122 electronic products to be produced in China, we estimate its effect on Taiwanese electronic manufacturers and their domestic workers. Employing a matched difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the manufacturers targeted by the policy were on average 10% more likely to invest in China relative to the non-targeted ones. Correspondingly, the domestic incumbent workers of the targeted manufacturers were on average more likely to change their jobs, remain employed for fewer years, and have lower wages in subsequent years relative to those employed by the non-targeted ones. The worker-level effects of the policy exhibited substantial heterogeneity across the initial wage distribution, with top-decile workers being less affected and the remaining workers experiencing average losses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 104227"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147397618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intersectoral demand linkages: Good shocks, bad outcomes? 跨部门需求联系:好的冲击,坏的结果?
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104226
Kristian Behrens , Sergei Kichko , Philip Ushchev
When and how are sector-specific price shocks magnified or dampened in general equilibrium with multiple industries and distortions? We develop a general framework with homothetic sectoral preferences and derive a welfare multiplier, which is a sufficient statistic for the share of the direct effect of the shock that materializes in the aggregate. We show that the combination of Cobb–Douglas or CES preferences with monopolistic competition always yields welfare gains from a positive shock. However, a positive sectoral shock may lead to aggregate losses under departures from either CES preferences or monopolistic competition. While our approach is similar to Baqaee and Fahri (2019, 2024), shocks propagate via consumer preferences in our case and production networks in their case, and market structure plays an explicit role in the transmission of shocks in our model.
在多行业和扭曲的一般均衡中,特定行业的价格冲击何时以及如何被放大或抑制?我们开发了一个具有同类部门偏好的一般框架,并推导出福利乘数,这是一个足以统计冲击在总体中实现的直接影响份额的统计数据。我们证明了科布-道格拉斯偏好或消费电子产品偏好与垄断竞争的结合总是从正冲击中产生福利收益。然而,积极的部门冲击可能导致在偏离消费电子产品偏好或垄断竞争的情况下的总损失。虽然我们的方法类似于Baqaee和Fahri(2019, 2024),但在我们的案例中,冲击通过消费者偏好传播,在他们的案例中,冲击通过生产网络传播,在我们的模型中,市场结构在冲击的传播中起着明确的作用。
{"title":"Intersectoral demand linkages: Good shocks, bad outcomes?","authors":"Kristian Behrens ,&nbsp;Sergei Kichko ,&nbsp;Philip Ushchev","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104226","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104226","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When and how are sector-specific price shocks magnified or dampened in general equilibrium with multiple industries and distortions? We develop a general framework with homothetic sectoral preferences and derive a welfare multiplier, which is a sufficient statistic for the share of the direct effect of the shock that materializes in the aggregate. We show that the combination of Cobb–Douglas or CES preferences with monopolistic competition always yields welfare gains from a positive shock. However, a positive sectoral shock may lead to aggregate losses under departures from either CES preferences or monopolistic competition. While our approach is similar to Baqaee and Fahri (2019, 2024), shocks propagate via consumer preferences in our case and production networks in their case, and market structure plays an explicit role in the transmission of shocks in our model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 104226"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147397619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Knowledge diffusion through FDI: Worldwide firm-level evidence 外国直接投资的知识扩散:全球企业层面的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104205
JaeBin Ahn, Chan Kim, Nan Li, Andrea Manera
This paper examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects cross-border knowledge diffusion by linking firm-level FDI events to patent citations. We assemble a global panel that merges utility patents with project-level greenfield and M&A investments in 60 countries over two decades. Using a new local-projection difference-in-differences methodology, we find that FDI raises bidirectional citation flows between investor and hosts, with stronger effects for greenfield than for M&A. Spillovers are heterogeneous—larger where host absorptive capacity is higher and where investor–host technologies are closer. At the country–industry level, diffusion extends beyond the targeted sector, propagating to technologically related industries and along production input–output linkages. Mode of entry matters: greenfield projects generate robust intra- and inter-industry diffusion, whereas M&A exhibits limited horizontal effects but notable forward (downstream) spillovers consistent with learning-by-using.
本文通过将企业层面的外国直接投资事件与专利引用联系起来,考察了外国直接投资(FDI)如何影响跨境知识扩散。我们组建了一个全球小组,将20多年来在60个国家的实用专利与项目级绿地和并购投资相结合。运用一种新的地方-预测差异中的差异方法,我们发现FDI促进了投资者和东道国之间的双向引文流动,其中绿地的作用强于M&; a。溢出效应各不相同——东道国吸收能力高、投资者与东道国技术接近的地方溢出效应更大。在国家-工业一级,扩散超出目标部门,传播到与技术有关的工业和沿着生产-投入-产出联系。进入模式很重要:绿地项目会产生强劲的行业内和行业间扩散,而M&;A的横向效应有限,但与“边学边用”相一致的正向(下游)溢出效应显著。
{"title":"Knowledge diffusion through FDI: Worldwide firm-level evidence","authors":"JaeBin Ahn,&nbsp;Chan Kim,&nbsp;Nan Li,&nbsp;Andrea Manera","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104205","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104205","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects cross-border knowledge diffusion by linking firm-level FDI events to patent citations. We assemble a global panel that merges utility patents with project-level greenfield and M&amp;A investments in 60 countries over two decades. Using a new local-projection difference-in-differences methodology, we find that FDI raises bidirectional citation flows between investor and hosts, with stronger effects for greenfield than for M&amp;A. Spillovers are heterogeneous—larger where host absorptive capacity is higher and where investor–host technologies are closer. At the country–industry level, diffusion extends beyond the targeted sector, propagating to technologically related industries and along production input–output linkages. Mode of entry matters: greenfield projects generate robust intra- and inter-industry diffusion, whereas M&amp;A exhibits limited horizontal effects but notable forward (downstream) spillovers consistent with learning-by-using.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 104205"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unilateral environmental policy and offshoring 单边环境政策和离岸外包
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104185
Simon J. Bolz , Fabrice Naumann , Philipp M. Richter
This paper examines how offshoring shapes emissions leakage and global emissions in response to unilateral environmental policy. We use a general equilibrium offshoring model with heterogeneous firms, based on standard modeling assumptions, where firms allocate labor between production tasks and emissions abatement. We find that global emissions respond non-monotonically to a unilateral emissions tax increase: for small cross-country tax differentials, emissions fall; but as the difference widens, leakage exceeds 100%, raising global emissions due to a global technique effect. The cleanest domestic firms start offshoring and incumbent offshoring firms become dirtier under declining effective foreign taxes. We isolate the offshoring margin – one underexplored channel of leakage – and contrast our findings with comparable models of trade in final goods: the mode of globalization matters. Complementing the unilateral reform with a border carbon adjustment (BCA) prevents emissions leakage but may raise inequality between countries.
本文考察了在单边环境政策的影响下,离岸外包如何影响排放泄漏和全球排放。基于标准建模假设,我们使用异质企业的一般均衡离岸外包模型,其中企业在生产任务和减排之间分配劳动力。我们发现,全球排放量对单边排放税增加的响应是非单调的:对于小的跨国税收差异,排放量下降;但随着差异的扩大,泄漏超过100%,由于全球技术效应,全球排放量增加。最干净的国内公司开始向海外转移,而现有的海外公司在有效外国税收下降的情况下变得更加肮脏。我们孤立了离岸外包利润——一个未被充分开发的泄漏渠道——并将我们的发现与可比较的最终产品贸易模式进行对比:全球化模式很重要。用边境碳调整(BCA)来补充单边改革可以防止排放泄漏,但可能会加剧国家之间的不平等。
{"title":"Unilateral environmental policy and offshoring","authors":"Simon J. Bolz ,&nbsp;Fabrice Naumann ,&nbsp;Philipp M. Richter","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104185","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104185","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how offshoring shapes emissions leakage and global emissions in response to unilateral environmental policy. We use a general equilibrium offshoring model with heterogeneous firms, based on standard modeling assumptions, where firms allocate labor between production tasks and emissions abatement. We find that global emissions respond non-monotonically to a unilateral emissions tax increase: for small cross-country tax differentials, emissions fall; but as the difference widens, leakage exceeds 100%, raising global emissions due to a global technique effect. The cleanest domestic firms start offshoring and incumbent offshoring firms become dirtier under declining effective foreign taxes. We isolate the offshoring margin – one underexplored channel of leakage – and contrast our findings with comparable models of trade in final goods: the mode of globalization matters. Complementing the unilateral reform with a border carbon adjustment (BCA) prevents emissions leakage but may raise inequality between countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 104185"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145570140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Commercial rivalry as seller incidence shifting: Non-parametric accounting of the China shock 商业竞争作为卖方事件转移:中国冲击的非参数会计
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104208
James E. Anderson
Intense US–China commercial rivalry is quantified in this paper with novel non-parametric relative resistance sufficient statistics. China’s manufacturing seller incidence falls (seller price rises) 8.2% yearly as China’s sales share quadruples over 2000-14. US seller incidence rises 6.3% yearly as US sales share halves. A 10% rise in US (China) 2014 sales share reduces seller incidence 10.05% (9.74%) and raises average seller incidence of others. Trade elasticities very close to one fit trade shares to revealed relative resistances. Trade elasticities identified off variation in observable buyer prices or trade costs are biased upward by omitted variation in unobservable buyer frictions.
本文采用新颖的非参数相对阻力充分统计量对中美激烈的商业竞争进行了量化。中国的制造业卖家发生率每年下降8.2%(卖家价格上涨),而中国的销售份额在2000- 2014年间翻了两番。美国卖家发病率每年上升6.3%,美国销售份额减半。2014年美国(中国)销售份额增长10%,卖家发生率降低10.05%(9.74%),并提高了其他卖家的平均发生率。交易弹性非常接近于一个适合交易股票的相对阻力。在可观察到的买方价格或贸易成本变化中确定的贸易弹性由于忽略了不可观察到的买方摩擦的变化而向上偏倚。
{"title":"Commercial rivalry as seller incidence shifting: Non-parametric accounting of the China shock","authors":"James E. Anderson","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104208","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104208","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Intense US–China commercial rivalry is quantified in this paper with novel non-parametric relative resistance sufficient statistics. China’s manufacturing seller incidence falls (seller price rises) 8.2% yearly as China’s sales share quadruples over 2000-14. US seller incidence rises 6.3% yearly as US sales share halves. A 10% rise in US (China) 2014 sales share reduces seller incidence 10.05% (9.74%) and raises average seller incidence of others. Trade elasticities very close to one fit trade shares to revealed relative resistances. Trade elasticities identified off variation in observable buyer prices or trade costs are biased upward by omitted variation in unobservable buyer frictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 104208"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145880567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Export agriculture and rural poverty: Evidence from Indonesian palm oil 出口农业和农村贫困:来自印尼棕榈油的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104209
Ryan B. Edwards
This paper measures the impacts of Indonesia’s palm oil export expansion on district poverty and household expenditure from 2002 to 2015. Identification exploits geographic variation in agro-climatic suitability in a long difference instrumental variable framework. The main result is that a 10 percentage point increase in district area under cultivation for oil palm corresponds to around six percentage points faster poverty reduction and nine percent faster expenditure growth. The expenditure gains are principally explained by rising returns to agricultural labor. I find no evidence of labor reallocation across sectors: new farmland absorbed labor saved from palm adoption. The expansion increased local government revenues, spending and public goods, while increasing deforestation, forest fires, certain health problems and conflict. Indonesian palm oil thus provides a striking modern illustration of some of the trade-offs inherent in large changes in trade and land use.
本文测量了2002 - 2015年印尼棕榈油出口扩张对地区贫困和家庭支出的影响。鉴定利用农业气候适宜性的地理差异在一个长差异的工具变量框架。主要结果是,油棕种植面积每增加10个百分点,减贫速度就会加快6个百分点,支出增长速度就会加快9个百分点。支出的增加主要是由于农业劳动力报酬的增加。我没有发现跨部门劳动力再分配的证据:新的农田吸收了从种植棕榈树中节省下来的劳动力。这种扩张增加了地方政府的收入、支出和公共产品,同时增加了森林砍伐、森林火灾、某些健康问题和冲突。因此,印度尼西亚棕榈油提供了一个引人注目的现代例证,说明了贸易和土地使用的巨大变化所固有的一些权衡。
{"title":"Export agriculture and rural poverty: Evidence from Indonesian palm oil","authors":"Ryan B. Edwards","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper measures the impacts of Indonesia’s palm oil export expansion on district poverty and household expenditure from 2002 to 2015. Identification exploits geographic variation in agro-climatic suitability in a long difference instrumental variable framework. The main result is that a 10 percentage point increase in district area under cultivation for oil palm corresponds to around six percentage points faster poverty reduction and nine percent faster expenditure growth. The expenditure gains are principally explained by rising returns to agricultural labor. I find no evidence of labor reallocation across sectors: new farmland absorbed labor saved from palm adoption. The expansion increased local government revenues, spending and public goods, while increasing deforestation, forest fires, certain health problems and conflict. Indonesian palm oil thus provides a striking modern illustration of some of the trade-offs inherent in large changes in trade and land use.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 104209"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145924515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using satellite imagery to measure the impacts of new highways: An application to India 利用卫星图像测量新公路的影响:在印度的应用
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104201
Kathryn Baragwanath , Gordon Hanson , Amit K. Khandelwal , Chen Liu , Hogeun Park
This paper integrates daytime and nighttime satellite imagery into a spatial general-equilibrium model to evaluate the returns to investments in new motorways. Our approach has particular value in developing-country settings in which spatially granular economic data are scarce. To demonstrate our method, we use publicly available imagery to evaluate India’s road construction projects in the early 2000s. Estimating the model and evaluating welfare impacts only requires remotely-sensed data. We find that India’s road investments improved aggregate welfare, particularly for the largest and smallest urban markets. Welfare gains were unevenly distributed across space, with the Golden Quadrilateral disproportionately benefiting large, already connected markets, while national highway upgrades delivered greater gains to smaller, more remote locations. More generally, within-district variation explains a large share of the overall spatial variance in welfare changes during this period, underscoring the value of high-resolution satellite imagery for capturing localized economic effects.
本文将白天和夜间卫星图像整合到一个空间一般均衡模型中,以评估新高速公路的投资回报。我们的方法在空间粒度经济数据稀缺的发展中国家环境中具有特别的价值。为了证明我们的方法,我们使用公开的图像来评估21世纪初印度的道路建设项目。估算模型和评估福利影响只需要遥感数据。我们发现,印度的道路投资改善了总福利,特别是对于最大和最小的城市市场。福利收益在空间上分布不均,黄金四边形不成比例地受益于已经连通的大型市场,而国家高速公路升级则为更小、更偏远的地区带来了更大的收益。更一般地说,区域内的差异解释了这一时期福利变化总体空间差异的很大一部分,强调了高分辨率卫星图像在捕捉局部经济影响方面的价值。
{"title":"Using satellite imagery to measure the impacts of new highways: An application to India","authors":"Kathryn Baragwanath ,&nbsp;Gordon Hanson ,&nbsp;Amit K. Khandelwal ,&nbsp;Chen Liu ,&nbsp;Hogeun Park","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper integrates daytime and nighttime satellite imagery into a spatial general-equilibrium model to evaluate the returns to investments in new motorways. Our approach has particular value in developing-country settings in which spatially granular economic data are scarce. To demonstrate our method, we use publicly available imagery to evaluate India’s road construction projects in the early 2000s. Estimating the model and evaluating welfare impacts only requires remotely-sensed data. We find that India’s road investments improved aggregate welfare, particularly for the largest and smallest urban markets. Welfare gains were unevenly distributed across space, with the Golden Quadrilateral disproportionately benefiting large, already connected markets, while national highway upgrades delivered greater gains to smaller, more remote locations. More generally, within-district variation explains a large share of the overall spatial variance in welfare changes during this period, underscoring the value of high-resolution satellite imagery for capturing localized economic effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 104201"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A swing-state theorem, with evidence 一个有证据的摇摆州定理
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104189
Xiangjun Ma , John McLaren , Karim Chalak
We study the effects of local partisanship in a model of electoral competition. Voters care about policy, but they also care about the identity of the party in power, with most states biassed toward one party or the other (i.e., ‘red’ or ‘blue’). We show that electoral competition leads to maximization of welfare with an extra weight on citizens of the ‘swing state:’ the one that is not biassed toward either party. We show empirically that the US tariff structure is biassed toward swing-state industries, such that a voter living in a non-swing state is treated as being worth 82% as much as a voter in a swing state. This represents a policy bias orders of magnitude greater than the bias found in studies of protection for sale.
我们在选举竞争模型中研究地方党派关系的影响。选民关心政策,但他们也关心执政党的身份,大多数州都倾向于一个政党或另一个政党(即“红”或“蓝”)。我们表明,选举竞争会导致福利最大化,同时对“摇摆州”(即不偏向任何一方的州)的公民施加额外的压力。我们的经验表明,美国的关税结构偏向于摇摆州的行业,因此,生活在非摇摆州的选民的价值相当于摇摆州选民的82%。这代表了一种政策偏差,其数量级大于在保护出售研究中发现的偏差。
{"title":"A swing-state theorem, with evidence","authors":"Xiangjun Ma ,&nbsp;John McLaren ,&nbsp;Karim Chalak","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104189","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104189","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the effects of local partisanship in a model of electoral competition. Voters care about policy, but they also care about the identity of the party in power, with most states biassed toward one party or the other (i.e., ‘red’ or ‘blue’). We show that electoral competition leads to maximization of welfare with an extra weight on citizens of the ‘swing state:’ the one that is not biassed toward either party. We show empirically that the US tariff structure is biassed toward swing-state industries, such that a voter living in a non-swing state is treated as being worth 82% as much as a voter in a swing state. This represents a policy bias orders of magnitude greater than the bias found in studies of protection for sale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 104189"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145570178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The causal effects of commodity shocks 大宗商品冲击的因果效应
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104200
Alisson Curatola-Melo , Bernardo Guimaraes
This paper disentangles the causal effects of commodity price movements on emerging market indicators from those driven by correlated external factors, such as global growth expectations and financial conditions. We employ an identification-through-heteroskedasticity approach using USDA Grain Stock reports, which have an exogenous impact on soybean, corn, and wheat prices. Our findings show that the causal effects of grain price shocks on default risk, stock indexes, and exchange rates are typically less than half the size of the unadjusted estimates.
本文将大宗商品价格变动对新兴市场指标的因果关系与相关外部因素(如全球增长预期和金融状况)驱动的因果关系分开。我们利用美国农业部粮食库存报告采用异方差鉴定方法,这些报告对大豆、玉米和小麦价格有外源影响。我们的研究结果表明,粮食价格冲击对违约风险、股票指数和汇率的因果影响通常不到未经调整估计的一半。
{"title":"The causal effects of commodity shocks","authors":"Alisson Curatola-Melo ,&nbsp;Bernardo Guimaraes","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104200","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104200","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper disentangles the causal effects of commodity price movements on emerging market indicators from those driven by correlated external factors, such as global growth expectations and financial conditions. We employ an identification-through-heteroskedasticity approach using USDA Grain Stock reports, which have an exogenous impact on soybean, corn, and wheat prices. Our findings show that the causal effects of grain price shocks on default risk, stock indexes, and exchange rates are typically less than half the size of the unadjusted estimates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 104200"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145681862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sanctions, sales, and stigma: Intermediary online firms’ market role in sustaining trade 制裁、销售和污名:中介网络公司在维持贸易中的市场角色
IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104197
Alexandra Avdeenko , Maximilian Kaiser , Krisztina Kis-Katos , Leonie Reher
In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, online intermediaries enabled brands to retain a presence in the Russian market as many global companies—presumably or actually—withdrew due to legal and reputational concerns. This paper examines how sales by intermediaries responded to international sanctions. Using novel data on customer transactions of 95 global brands from 1761 web shops, we show that sales to Russia dropped significantly after the invasion, especially among shops from countries enacting export restrictions. This drop was substantial yet not absolute. Guided by a stylized conceptual framework, we explore which intermediary shops helped sustain sales to Russia, linking their actions to economic incentives and the brand-specific legal and reputational concerns. Overall, we demonstrate how market structure shapes shops’ compliance with sanctions and highlight how economic incentives undermine compliance.
在俄罗斯于2022年2月全面入侵乌克兰之后,在线中介使品牌得以保留在俄罗斯市场的存在,而许多跨国公司——可能是或实际上——由于法律和声誉方面的考虑而退出了俄罗斯市场。本文考察了中间商的销售如何对国际制裁作出反应。使用来自1761家网络商店的95个全球品牌的客户交易的新数据,我们表明,入侵后对俄罗斯的销售额大幅下降,特别是来自实施出口限制的国家的商店。这一下降幅度很大,但不是绝对的。在一个程式化的概念框架的指导下,我们探讨了哪些中介商店帮助维持了对俄罗斯的销售,将他们的行为与经济激励和品牌特定的法律和声誉问题联系起来。总体而言,我们展示了市场结构如何影响商店对制裁的遵守,并强调了经济激励如何破坏遵守。
{"title":"Sanctions, sales, and stigma: Intermediary online firms’ market role in sustaining trade","authors":"Alexandra Avdeenko ,&nbsp;Maximilian Kaiser ,&nbsp;Krisztina Kis-Katos ,&nbsp;Leonie Reher","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104197","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104197","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, online intermediaries enabled brands to retain a presence in the Russian market as many global companies—presumably or actually—withdrew due to legal and reputational concerns. This paper examines how sales by intermediaries responded to international sanctions. Using novel data on customer transactions of 95 global brands from 1761 web shops, we show that sales to Russia dropped significantly after the invasion, especially among shops from countries enacting export restrictions. This drop was substantial yet not absolute. Guided by a stylized conceptual framework, we explore which intermediary shops helped sustain sales to Russia, linking their actions to economic incentives and the brand-specific legal and reputational concerns. Overall, we demonstrate how market structure shapes shops’ compliance with sanctions and highlight how economic incentives undermine compliance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 104197"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145615835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of International Economics
全部 Appl. Geochem. J. Afr. Earth. Sci. Int. J. Biometeorol. Environ. Geochem. Health Geochem. Int. ATMOSPHERE-BASEL Acta Geophys. Solid Earth ECOL RESTOR Am. Mineral. J. Earth Syst. Sci. GEOL BELG PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL Geostand. Geoanal. Res. Environmental Health Insights ERN: Other Microeconomics: General Equilibrium & Disequilibrium Models of Financial Markets (Topic) ENG SANIT AMBIENT ERN: Regulation (IO) (Topic) Conserv. Genet. Resour. Int. J. Geog. Inf. Sci. Polar Sci. Earth Syst. Dyn. Theor. Appl. Climatol. Nat. Geosci. Essentials of Polymer Flooding Technique Engineering Structures and Technologies ARCH ACOUST Environ. Educ. Res, Environmental Epigenetics EUR UROL FOCUS ASTROBIOLOGY Expert Rev. Clin. Immunol. Weather Forecasting Fossil Rec. 非金属矿 Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. Archaeol. Anthropol. Sci. Polar Res. Ann. Glaciol. Exp. Parasitol. Seismol. Res. Lett. Expert Rev. Clin. Pharmacol. EUR PHYS J-APPL PHYS Isl. Arc IZV-PHYS SOLID EART+ Energy Systems Environ. Res. Lett. 化工催化剂及甲醇技术 Newsl. Stratigr. Atmos. Chem. Phys. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. Geol. J. SOLA IEEE Trans. Appl. Supercond. SEDIMENTOLOGY Chin. Phys. Lett. Austrian J. Earth Sci. Clean-Soil Air Water ECOTOXICOLOGY J. Paleontol. Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research J. Geol. Soc. India Environ. Pollut. Bioavailability Am. J. Sci. Quat. Res. Exp. Hematol. Mineral. Mag. J APPL METEOROL CLIM PERIOD MINERAL Z. Geomorphol. ESTUD GEOL-MADRID Environmental Control in Biology Carbon Balance Manage. Aust. J. Earth Sci. Laser Phys. 电力系统及其自动化学报 BIOGEOSCIENCES EPISODES 航空科学与技术(英文) ERN: Stock Market Risk (Topic) Adv. Atmos. Sci. AAPG Bull. COMP BIOCHEM PHYS C Org. Geochem. Geol. Ore Deposits ARCT ANTARCT ALP RES Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci. TECTONOPHYSICS ACTA PETROL SIN ACTA GEOL POL Geobiology Environ. Eng. Sci. J. Atmos. Chem. GEOLOGY Basin Res. ARCHAEOMETRY ACTA GEOL SIN-ENGL J PHYS A-MATH THEOR Aquat. Geochem. Atmos. Res.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1