Journal of International Economics最新文献

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The Percolation of Knowledge across Space

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104026

Pierre Cotterlaz , Arthur Guillouzouic

This paper shows that the negative effect of geographical distance on knowledge flows stems from how firms gain sources of knowledge through their existing network. We start by documenting two stylized facts. First, in aggregate, the distance elasticity of patent citations flows is sizable and has remained constant since the 1980s, despite the rise of the internet. Second, at the micro level, firms’ network of knowledge sources expands through existing knowledge sources. We introduce a framework featuring the latter phenomenon, and generating a negative distance elasticity in aggregate. The model predicts Pareto-distributed innovator sizes, and citation distances increasing with innovator size. These predictions hold well empirically. We investigate changes of the underlying parameters and geographical composition effects over the period. While the distance effect should have decreased with constant country composition, the rise of East Asian economies, associated to large distance elasticities, compensated lower frictions in other countries.

引用次数: 0

The pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104028

Hamid Firooz

What are the pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets? This paper develops and estimates a dynamic general equilibrium trade model to show that the interplay between endogenously variable markups in product markets and frictions in labor markets has important implications for aggregate as well as distributional consequences of trade. In particular, I show that once markups are allowed to respond to trade liberalization, unemployment and residual wage inequality rise almost three times more than in a model with constant markups (in the steady state). The presence of labor market frictions makes the pro-competitive gains from trade liberalization negative.

引用次数: 0

From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037

Jean-Charles Bricongne , Juan Carluccio , Lionel Fontagné , Guillaume Gaulier , Sebastian Stumpner

Using monthly firm-level exports and imports over 1993–2020, we uncover four facts: (i) deviations of large exporters from the average growth rate explain a large share of aggregate fluctuations; (ii) an important source for these deviations is the top exporters’ higher loadings on common shocks; (iii) the stronger reaction of the top 1% exporters to the GFC and Covid crises contributed to the export collapses; (iv) a higher elasticity to large demand shocks, not a different exposure to global value chain shocks, contributes to this stronger reaction. The results show that idiosyncratic reactions of large firms to common shocks matter for aggregate export fluctuations, and are especially relevant for the trade collapses of the 2008/2009 crisis and the Pandemic.

引用次数: 0

Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104029

Lena Dräger , Klaus Gründler , Niklas Potrafke

How do global supply-side shocks influence macroeconomic expectations? We exploit the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock, which translated into a momentous supply-side shock, on inflation expectations. Collecting a unique survey among tenured economics professors in Germany, we find sizable effects on inflation expectations and monetary policy recommendations. A comparison with a representative sample of households shows that experts’ expectations adjust faster and to a larger degree to the shock. Text analyses on open-ended questions reveal that the effects are caused by supply-side models underlying experts’ formation of expectations.

引用次数: 0

Early 20th century American exceptionalism: Production, trade and diffusion of the automobile

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104025

Dong Cheng , Mario J. Crucini , Hyunseung Oh , Hakan Yilmazkuday

This paper curates historical data on the quantity and unit value of automobiles exported from the United States to 23 destination countries along with natural and official barriers relevant to automobiles to account for the 46:1 automobile adoption gap between the US and the median country by 1929. For the median destination country, the export markup, tariff, and shipping cost are each roughly 20% ad-valorem-equivalent distortions, the retail distribution wedge is about 30%, and the foreign user cost wedge (based on gasoline taxes) is above 100%. Eliminating these price wedges and income differences relative to the US is shown to account for over 80% of the adoption gap. The estimated reduced-form adoption model accounts for much of the time series variation with relative price declines and income growth driving US and global adoption upward over time and the Great Depression reversing some of these gains at roughly constant relative prices.

引用次数: 0

The effect of import competition across occupations

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104001

Sergi Basco , Maxime Liégey , Martí Mestieri , Gabriel Smagghue

We empirically examine the effect of import competition on worker earnings across occupations. To guide our analysis, we develop a stylized model that emphasizes industries using occupations in different intensities. We show that an occupational exposure index summarizes the overall exposure of an occupation to industry-level trade shocks. Proxying these industry-level trade shocks with rising Chinese competition and using nationally representative matched employer–employee French panel data from 1993 through 2015, we obtain evidence consistent with the predictions of the model. We find that workers initially employed in occupations highly exposed to Chinese competition – as measured by our occupational exposure index – experience larger declines in earnings. The magnitude of our estimates implies that the effect of rising Chinese competition on workers’ earnings due to differences in workers’ occupations is of comparable magnitude to the effect of workers’ sector of employment. This finding suggests that accounting for the distributional effects of trade across occupations is quantitatively important.

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引用次数: 0

International production networks and the propagation of financial shocks

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104039

Sihao Chen

This paper investigates how external sector-level financial shocks are transmitted to a small open economy through international production networks. Using a multi-sector small open economy model, I show analytically that a financial shock to an external production sector affects downstream sectors (through a price effect) and upstream sectors (through a direct demand effect and a complementarity or substitution effect). These effects work through international production networks, affecting the small country’s output and GDP. Quantitatively, I construct U.S. sector-level excess bond premia and estimate key parameters for simulations. The simulation exercises show that U.S. financial shocks account for a significant proportion of the fluctuations in Mexico’s GDP during the global financial crisis. International production networks amplify the real effect of external financial shocks by a factor of at least three during the crisis.

引用次数: 0

Domestic linkages and the transmission of commodity price shocks

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104041

Damian Romero

This paper studies the role of input–output (IO) linkages in the propagation of commodity price shocks. We present empirical evidence documenting a positive correlation between commodity prices and GDP that decreases in the intensity of production linkages between the commodity sector and the rest. In a model for a small open economy, stronger linkages reduce the demand for inputs by the commodity sector, dampening the response of real GDP after a positive commodity price shock. A calibrated version of the model shows that the elasticity of GDP would be 6% lower if the commodity sector had been 5% more connected.

引用次数: 0

Avoiding sovereign default contagion: A normative analysis

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2024-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104040

Sergio de Ferra , Enrico Mallucci

Should debtor countries support each other during sovereign debt crises? We answer this question through the lens of a two-country sovereign-default model that we calibrate to the euro-area periphery. First, we look at cross-country bailouts. We find that whenever agents anticipate them, bailouts induce higher borrowings, and yet still enhance welfare. Second, we look at the borrowing choices of a global central borrower. We find that central borrower’s policies reduce debt and improve the joint welfare of the two countries. Yet, welfare gains are uneven. In our baseline specification, one of the two countries sees a decline of welfare under the planner’s rules. We conclude that central planner policies may be politically unfeasible.

引用次数: 0

Trade flows and exchange rates: Importers, exporters and products

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2024-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104044

Michael B. Devereux , Wei Dong , Ben Tomlin

Using highly-disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows. Moreover, we find that these margins are sensitive to movements in the exchange rate and that larger firms are substantially more responsive in terms of both the number of trade partners and products. These findings are then rationalized in a model of international trade with endogenous matching between heterogeneous importers and exporters. Simulations of the model highlight: (1) a new channel through which exchange rates influence short-run trade flows; and (2) the importance of firm heterogeneity—on both sides of trade transactions—in the adjustment process.

引用次数: 0

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