Journal of International Economics最新文献

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Do geopolitical risks raise or lower inflation? 地缘政治风险会提高还是降低通胀？

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104188

Dario Caldara , Sarah Conlisk , Matteo Iacoviello , Maddie Penn

Do geopolitical risks raise or lower inflation? Using a unique dataset containing historical macroeconomic data since 1900 for 44 economies, we find that geopolitical risks foreshadow high inflation, with the intensity of this effect differing across countries and historical periods. The rise in inflation is accompanied by lower economic activity; an increase in military spending, public debt, and money growth; supply disruptions; and a decline in international trade. Geopolitical risks are also associated with higher inflation uncertainty and the risk of significant inflation increases. Using a monthly vector autoregression model estimated on global data since the 1970s, we confirm that global geopolitical risks increase inflation, with the inflationary effect of higher commodity prices and currency depreciation more than offsetting the deflationary effects of lower consumer sentiment and tighter financial conditions.

地缘政治风险会提高还是降低通胀？使用包含自1900年以来44个经济体历史宏观经济数据的独特数据集，我们发现地缘政治风险预示着高通胀，这种影响的强度因国家和历史时期而异。通货膨胀的上升伴随着经济活动的减少；军费开支、公共债务和货币增长的增加；供应中断;以及国际贸易的下降。地缘政治风险也与更高的通胀不确定性和通胀大幅上升的风险有关。使用自20世纪70年代以来全球数据估计的月度矢量自回归模型，我们确认全球地缘政治风险增加了通货膨胀，商品价格上涨和货币贬值的通货膨胀效应远远抵消了消费者信心下降和金融状况收紧的通货紧缩效应。

引用次数: 0

Expansionary fiscal rules under sovereign risk 主权风险下的扩张性财政规则

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104198

Carlos Esquivel , Agustin Samano

We study fiscal rules in a sovereign default model with private capital accumulation and long-term debt. Their adoption strengthens public finances and increases long-run income by mitigating two distortions: debt dilution and underinvestment. In the short run, however, the economy experiences a costly transition where consumption and investment drop to finance debt reduction. To study this tradeoff, we calibrate the model to Argentina and evaluate three rules: a debt limit, a deficit limit, and a dual rule combining both. The deficit limit is preferred only when implemented at high debt levels because it features smoother debt reduction but imposes strict discipline in all states. Otherwise, gains are highest under the dual rule that combines the flexibility of debt limits at low levels with the discipline of deficit limits at higher levels. Results are robust to alternative formulations for capital accumulation and stronger in the presence of political myopia.

我们研究了具有私人资本积累和长期债务的主权违约模型中的财政规则。它们的采用加强了公共财政，并通过缓解两种扭曲来增加长期收入：债务稀释和投资不足。然而，在短期内，经济将经历一个代价高昂的转型，消费和投资将下降，为削减债务提供资金。为了研究这种权衡，我们将模型校准到阿根廷，并评估了三种规则：债务上限、赤字上限和将两者结合起来的双重规则。赤字上限只有在高债务水平下实施时才会受到青睐，因为它的特点是更平稳的债务削减，但对所有州都施加了严格的纪律。否则，在将低水平债务限制的灵活性与高水平赤字限制的纪律结合起来的双重规则下，收益最高。结果对资本积累的替代公式是稳健的，在政治短视的存在下更强。

引用次数: 0

Sanctions, sales, and stigma: Intermediary online firms’ market role in sustaining trade 制裁、销售和污名：中介网络公司在维持贸易中的市场角色

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104197

Alexandra Avdeenko , Maximilian Kaiser , Krisztina Kis-Katos , Leonie Reher

In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, online intermediaries enabled brands to retain a presence in the Russian market as many global companies—presumably or actually—withdrew due to legal and reputational concerns. This paper examines how sales by intermediaries responded to international sanctions. Using novel data on customer transactions of 95 global brands from 1761 web shops, we show that sales to Russia dropped significantly after the invasion, especially among shops from countries enacting export restrictions. This drop was substantial yet not absolute. Guided by a stylized conceptual framework, we explore which intermediary shops helped sustain sales to Russia, linking their actions to economic incentives and the brand-specific legal and reputational concerns. Overall, we demonstrate how market structure shapes shops’ compliance with sanctions and highlight how economic incentives undermine compliance.

在俄罗斯于2022年2月全面入侵乌克兰之后，在线中介使品牌得以保留在俄罗斯市场的存在，而许多跨国公司——可能是或实际上——由于法律和声誉方面的考虑而退出了俄罗斯市场。本文考察了中间商的销售如何对国际制裁作出反应。使用来自1761家网络商店的95个全球品牌的客户交易的新数据，我们表明，入侵后对俄罗斯的销售额大幅下降，特别是来自实施出口限制的国家的商店。这一下降幅度很大，但不是绝对的。在一个程式化的概念框架的指导下，我们探讨了哪些中介商店帮助维持了对俄罗斯的销售，将他们的行为与经济激励和品牌特定的法律和声誉问题联系起来。总体而言，我们展示了市场结构如何影响商店对制裁的遵守，并强调了经济激励如何破坏遵守。

引用次数: 0

A swing-state theorem, with evidence 一个有证据的摇摆州定理

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104189

Xiangjun Ma , John McLaren , Karim Chalak

We study the effects of local partisanship in a model of electoral competition. Voters care about policy, but they also care about the identity of the party in power, with most states biassed toward one party or the other (i.e., ‘red’ or ‘blue’). We show that electoral competition leads to maximization of welfare with an extra weight on citizens of the ‘swing state:’ the one that is not biassed toward either party. We show empirically that the US tariff structure is biassed toward swing-state industries, such that a voter living in a non-swing state is treated as being worth 82% as much as a voter in a swing state. This represents a policy bias orders of magnitude greater than the bias found in studies of protection for sale.

我们在选举竞争模型中研究地方党派关系的影响。选民关心政策，但他们也关心执政党的身份，大多数州都倾向于一个政党或另一个政党（即“红”或“蓝”）。我们表明，选举竞争会导致福利最大化，同时对“摇摆州”（即不偏向任何一方的州）的公民施加额外的压力。我们的经验表明，美国的关税结构偏向于摇摆州的行业，因此，生活在非摇摆州的选民的价值相当于摇摆州选民的82%。这代表了一种政策偏差，其数量级大于在保护出售研究中发现的偏差。

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Unilateral environmental policy and offshoring 单边环境政策和离岸外包

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104185

Simon J. Bolz , Fabrice Naumann , Philipp M. Richter

This paper examines how offshoring shapes emissions leakage and global emissions in response to unilateral environmental policy. We use a general equilibrium offshoring model with heterogeneous firms, based on standard modeling assumptions, where firms allocate labor between production tasks and emissions abatement. We find that global emissions respond non-monotonically to a unilateral emissions tax increase: for small cross-country tax differentials, emissions fall; but as the difference widens, leakage exceeds 100%, raising global emissions due to a global technique effect. The cleanest domestic firms start offshoring and incumbent offshoring firms become dirtier under declining effective foreign taxes. We isolate the offshoring margin – one underexplored channel of leakage – and contrast our findings with comparable models of trade in final goods: the mode of globalization matters. Complementing the unilateral reform with a border carbon adjustment (BCA) prevents emissions leakage but may raise inequality between countries.

本文考察了在单边环境政策的影响下，离岸外包如何影响排放泄漏和全球排放。基于标准建模假设，我们使用异质企业的一般均衡离岸外包模型，其中企业在生产任务和减排之间分配劳动力。我们发现，全球排放量对单边排放税增加的响应是非单调的：对于小的跨国税收差异，排放量下降；但随着差异的扩大，泄漏超过100%，由于全球技术效应，全球排放量增加。最干净的国内公司开始向海外转移，而现有的海外公司在有效外国税收下降的情况下变得更加肮脏。我们孤立了离岸外包利润——一个未被充分开发的泄漏渠道——并将我们的发现与可比较的最终产品贸易模式进行对比：全球化模式很重要。用边境碳调整（BCA）来补充单边改革可以防止排放泄漏，但可能会加剧国家之间的不平等。

引用次数: 0

Economic diversity and the resilience of cities 经济多样性和城市韧性

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104184

François de Soyres , Simon Fuchs , Illenin O. Kondo , Helene Maghin

We develop a framework to assess how economic shocks affect local labor markets and worker welfare, with a focus on city-level economic diversity. Using detailed worker flow data across cities, sectors, and occupations, we construct theory-consistent welfare measures. Our approach combines a dynamic discrete choice model with a dual representation that captures both direct effects and the insurance value of local economic diversity. Applied to French labor markets, we find that diversification dampens the effect of negative shocks: both job-to-job moves and net inflows decline less in diverse cities than in concentrated ones. Overall, we document sizable welfare insurance gains from local economic diversity.

我们开发了一个框架来评估经济冲击如何影响当地劳动力市场和工人福利，重点关注城市层面的经济多样性。利用城市、部门和职业之间的详细劳动力流动数据，我们构建了与理论一致的福利指标。我们的方法将动态离散选择模型与双重表示相结合，以捕获当地经济多样性的直接影响和保险价值。将其应用于法国劳动力市场，我们发现多元化抑制了负面冲击的影响：与集中型城市相比，多元化城市的工作间流动和净流入下降幅度较小。总体而言，我们记录了当地经济多样性带来的可观的福利保险收益。

引用次数: 0

Single and attractive: Uniqueness and stability of economic equilibria under monotonicity assumptions 单一和吸引：单调假设下经济均衡的唯一性和稳定性

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104187

Patrizio Bifulco , Jochen Glück , Oliver Krebs , Bohdan Kukharskyy

This paper characterizes equilibrium properties of a broad class of economic models that allow multiple heterogeneous agents to interact in heterogeneous ways across several markets. Our key contribution is a new theorem that provides sufficient conditions for uniqueness, attractivity, and stability of solutions of non-linear equation systems. To illustrate the applicability of our theorem, we characterize the general equilibrium properties of an extended version of the “universal gravity” framework, which comprises a host of seminal trade models. Specifically, we provide conditions for uniqueness, stability, and attractivity when, in line with real-world observations, (i) supply elasticities are allowed to vary by country, or (ii) multiple sectors are introduced. We also provide a practical toolkit for future research on how our theorem can be applied to establish uniqueness, stability, and attractivity of equilibria in a broad set of economic models.

本文描述了一类广泛的经济模型的均衡特性，这些模型允许多个异质主体在多个市场中以异质方式相互作用。我们的主要贡献是一个新的定理，它提供了非线性方程组解的唯一性、吸引性和稳定性的充分条件。为了说明我们的定理的适用性，我们描述了“万有引力”框架的扩展版本的一般均衡性质，该框架包括许多开创性的贸易模型。具体来说，我们提供了独特性、稳定性和吸引力的条件，根据现实世界的观察，(i)允许供应弹性因国家而异，或（ii）引入多个部门。我们还提供了一个实用的工具包，用于未来研究如何将我们的定理应用于在广泛的经济模型中建立均衡的唯一性，稳定性和吸引力。

引用次数: 0

What drives exporters’ market dynamics? A new framework for disentangling micro shocks 是什么驱动着出口商的市场动态？解缠微冲击的新框架

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104186

Lu Han

Exporters frequently change their set of destination markets. This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the underlying drivers of changes in exporters’ market decisions over time. The approach exploits information on price and quantity changes in firms’ continuing markets to disentangle the micro shocks that drive firms’ market changes. Applying the method to customs data from China (2000–2006) and the UK (2010–2016), I find consistent results showing that most firm- and firm-product-level market changes are driven by demand-related shocks, with a nontrivial proportion of these changes being correlated across markets.

出口商经常改变他们的目标市场。本文提出了一种新的方法来确定出口商市场决策随时间变化的潜在驱动因素。该方法利用企业持续市场中价格和数量变化的信息，来理清驱动企业市场变化的微观冲击。将该方法应用于中国（2000-2006年）和英国（2010-2016年）的海关数据，我发现一致的结果表明，大多数企业和企业产品层面的市场变化是由需求相关冲击驱动的，这些变化中有很大一部分是跨市场相关的。

引用次数: 0

Inflated concerns: Exposure to past inflationary episodes and preferences for price stability 夸大的担忧：对过去通胀事件的敞口，以及对价格稳定的偏好

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104181

Nicolás E. Magud, Samuel Pienknagura

Using individual-level surveys for 42 countries (advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies) spanning about 40 years, we show that cohorts with higher exposure to past inflationary episodes systematically express higher concerns over inflation. This link is stronger for women and poorer individuals; when exposure occurs in the latter part of the individual’s working-age (lifecycle theory); and it diminishes with individuals’ trust in institutions. Country characteristics also affect the link between past inflation exposure and inflation concerns—it is amplified by macroeconomic instability, and reduced with institutions’ quality, aggregate income, and democratic development. Higher contemporaneous inflation affects inflation concerns but does not increase the sensitivity of inflation concerns to past experience. In turn, inflation concerns have macroeconomic implications, as inflation expectations are more responsive to inflationary shocks in countries where concerns about inflation are more entrenched. This could potentially affect central banks’ ability to anchor inflation expectations.

我们对42个国家（发达经济体、新兴市场和发展中经济体）进行了长达40年的个人层面调查，结果表明，经历过通胀事件的人群系统性地表达了对通胀的更高担忧。这种联系在妇女和穷人中更为明显；当暴露发生在个人工作年龄的后半段时（生命周期理论）；它随着个人对机构的信任而减少。国家特征也会影响过去的通货膨胀风险与通货膨胀担忧之间的联系，这种联系会因宏观经济不稳定而放大，并随着制度质量、总收入和民主发展而减弱。较高的同期通货膨胀影响通货膨胀关注，但不会增加通货膨胀关注对过去经验的敏感性。通胀担忧反过来又会对宏观经济产生影响，因为在通胀担忧更为根深蒂固的国家，通胀预期对通胀冲击的反应更为敏感。这可能会影响央行控制通胀预期的能力。

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引用次数: 0

Expectations and the UIP puzzles when foresight is limited 当远见有限时，期望和统一ip令人困惑

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104183

Seunghoon Na , Yinxi Xie

This paper studies exchange rate dynamics and excess currency returns by incorporating bounded rationality into a small open-economy New Keynesian model. Decision-makers have limited foresight, planning only up to a finite horizon and approximating continuation values with coarse value functions learned from past experiences. This behavior generates an initial underreaction, followed by an overreaction in beliefs, leading to dynamic overshooting of exchange rate forecast errors. Moreover, the coexistence of forward- and backward-looking components in expectation formation breaks the forecast-horizon invariance implied from rational expectations. Our model thus provides a micro-foundation for understanding time- and forecast-horizon variability in uncovered interest parity (UIP) puzzles, and its predictions align closely with empirical estimates.

本文通过将有限理性引入小型开放经济新凯恩斯模型，研究了汇率动态和超额货币收益。决策者的远见是有限的，只能在有限的范围内进行规划，并且用从过去经验中学到的粗糙的价值函数来近似连续值。这种行为导致最初反应不足，随后信念反应过度，导致汇率预测误差动态超调。此外，预期形成中前瞻和后视成分的共存打破了理性预期隐含的预测-视界不变性。因此，我们的模型为理解未发现的利率平价（UIP）谜题的时间和预测范围变化提供了微观基础，其预测与经验估计密切相关。

引用次数: 0

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