Journal of International Economics最新文献

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Single and attractive: Uniqueness and stability of economic equilibria under monotonicity assumptions 单一和吸引：单调假设下经济均衡的唯一性和稳定性

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104187

Patrizio Bifulco , Jochen Glück , Oliver Krebs , Bohdan Kukharskyy

This paper characterizes equilibrium properties of a broad class of economic models that allow multiple heterogeneous agents to interact in heterogeneous ways across several markets. Our key contribution is a new theorem that provides sufficient conditions for uniqueness, attractivity, and stability of solutions of non-linear equation systems. To illustrate the applicability of our theorem, we characterize the general equilibrium properties of an extended version of the “universal gravity” framework, which comprises a host of seminal trade models. Specifically, we provide conditions for uniqueness, stability, and attractivity when, in line with real-world observations, (i) supply elasticities are allowed to vary by country, or (ii) multiple sectors are introduced. We also provide a practical toolkit for future research on how our theorem can be applied to establish uniqueness, stability, and attractivity of equilibria in a broad set of economic models.

本文描述了一类广泛的经济模型的均衡特性，这些模型允许多个异质主体在多个市场中以异质方式相互作用。我们的主要贡献是一个新的定理，它提供了非线性方程组解的唯一性、吸引性和稳定性的充分条件。为了说明我们的定理的适用性，我们描述了“万有引力”框架的扩展版本的一般均衡性质，该框架包括许多开创性的贸易模型。具体来说，我们提供了独特性、稳定性和吸引力的条件，根据现实世界的观察，(i)允许供应弹性因国家而异，或（ii）引入多个部门。我们还提供了一个实用的工具包，用于未来研究如何将我们的定理应用于在广泛的经济模型中建立均衡的唯一性，稳定性和吸引力。

引用次数: 0

What drives exporters’ market dynamics? A new framework for disentangling micro shocks 是什么驱动着出口商的市场动态？解缠微冲击的新框架

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104186

Lu Han

Exporters frequently change their set of destination markets. This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the underlying drivers of changes in exporters’ market decisions over time. The approach exploits information on price and quantity changes in firms’ continuing markets to disentangle the micro shocks that drive firms’ market changes. Applying the method to customs data from China (2000–2006) and the UK (2010–2016), I find consistent results showing that most firm- and firm-product-level market changes are driven by demand-related shocks, with a nontrivial proportion of these changes being correlated across markets.

出口商经常改变他们的目标市场。本文提出了一种新的方法来确定出口商市场决策随时间变化的潜在驱动因素。该方法利用企业持续市场中价格和数量变化的信息，来理清驱动企业市场变化的微观冲击。将该方法应用于中国（2000-2006年）和英国（2010-2016年）的海关数据，我发现一致的结果表明，大多数企业和企业产品层面的市场变化是由需求相关冲击驱动的，这些变化中有很大一部分是跨市场相关的。

引用次数: 0

Inflated concerns: Exposure to past inflationary episodes and preferences for price stability 夸大的担忧：对过去通胀事件的敞口，以及对价格稳定的偏好

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104181

Nicolás E. Magud, Samuel Pienknagura

Using individual-level surveys for 42 countries (advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies) spanning about 40 years, we show that cohorts with higher exposure to past inflationary episodes systematically express higher concerns over inflation. This link is stronger for women and poorer individuals; when exposure occurs in the latter part of the individual’s working-age (lifecycle theory); and it diminishes with individuals’ trust in institutions. Country characteristics also affect the link between past inflation exposure and inflation concerns—it is amplified by macroeconomic instability, and reduced with institutions’ quality, aggregate income, and democratic development. Higher contemporaneous inflation affects inflation concerns but does not increase the sensitivity of inflation concerns to past experience. In turn, inflation concerns have macroeconomic implications, as inflation expectations are more responsive to inflationary shocks in countries where concerns about inflation are more entrenched. This could potentially affect central banks’ ability to anchor inflation expectations.

我们对42个国家（发达经济体、新兴市场和发展中经济体）进行了长达40年的个人层面调查，结果表明，经历过通胀事件的人群系统性地表达了对通胀的更高担忧。这种联系在妇女和穷人中更为明显；当暴露发生在个人工作年龄的后半段时（生命周期理论）；它随着个人对机构的信任而减少。国家特征也会影响过去的通货膨胀风险与通货膨胀担忧之间的联系，这种联系会因宏观经济不稳定而放大，并随着制度质量、总收入和民主发展而减弱。较高的同期通货膨胀影响通货膨胀关注，但不会增加通货膨胀关注对过去经验的敏感性。通胀担忧反过来又会对宏观经济产生影响，因为在通胀担忧更为根深蒂固的国家，通胀预期对通胀冲击的反应更为敏感。这可能会影响央行控制通胀预期的能力。

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引用次数: 0

Expectations and the UIP puzzles when foresight is limited 当远见有限时，期望和统一ip令人困惑

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104183

Seunghoon Na , Yinxi Xie

This paper studies exchange rate dynamics and excess currency returns by incorporating bounded rationality into a small open-economy New Keynesian model. Decision-makers have limited foresight, planning only up to a finite horizon and approximating continuation values with coarse value functions learned from past experiences. This behavior generates an initial underreaction, followed by an overreaction in beliefs, leading to dynamic overshooting of exchange rate forecast errors. Moreover, the coexistence of forward- and backward-looking components in expectation formation breaks the forecast-horizon invariance implied from rational expectations. Our model thus provides a micro-foundation for understanding time- and forecast-horizon variability in uncovered interest parity (UIP) puzzles, and its predictions align closely with empirical estimates.

本文通过将有限理性引入小型开放经济新凯恩斯模型，研究了汇率动态和超额货币收益。决策者的远见是有限的，只能在有限的范围内进行规划，并且用从过去经验中学到的粗糙的价值函数来近似连续值。这种行为导致最初反应不足，随后信念反应过度，导致汇率预测误差动态超调。此外，预期形成中前瞻和后视成分的共存打破了理性预期隐含的预测-视界不变性。因此，我们的模型为理解未发现的利率平价（UIP）谜题的时间和预测范围变化提供了微观基础，其预测与经验估计密切相关。

引用次数: 0

The business cycle volatility puzzle: Emerging vs developed economies 商业周期波动之谜：新兴经济体vs发达经济体

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104182

Lucía Casal , Rafael Guntin

We study the drivers of business cycle volatility differences between emerging and developed economies. We develop a multisector small open economy framework with heterogeneous firms and production linkages in which firms are subject to sectoral and firm-level TFP shocks and international prices shocks. Using sector-level, firm-level, and international trade data from various developed and emerging economies, we quantify the relevant model-based sufficient statistics. We find that differences in sectoral composition between emerging and developed economies can explain up to 77% of the excessive business cycle volatility in emerging economies, while disparities in the distribution of firms account for up to 9%, and the role of international prices shocks is negligible. Despite the significant influence of sectoral composition, the decrease in volatility observed in emerging economies over the past four decades cannot be attributed to changes in their economic structure.

我们研究了新兴经济体和发达经济体之间商业周期波动差异的驱动因素。我们开发了一个多部门小型开放经济框架，其中包括异质企业和生产联系，其中企业受到部门和公司层面的全要素生产率冲击以及国际价格冲击。利用来自各个发达经济体和新兴经济体的行业层面、企业层面和国际贸易数据，我们量化了相关的基于充分统计的模型。我们发现，新兴经济体和发达经济体之间部门构成的差异可以解释新兴经济体中77%的过度商业周期波动，而企业分布的差异可以解释高达9%的过度商业周期波动，国际价格冲击的作用可以忽略不计。尽管部门构成有重大影响，但新兴经济体在过去四十年中观察到的波动性下降不能归因于其经济结构的变化。

引用次数: 0

Export shocks and banks’ domestic credit: Balancing liquidity provision and risk mitigation 出口冲击与银行国内信贷：平衡流动性供应与风险缓解

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104173

Stefano Federico, Giuseppe Marinelli, Francesco Palazzo

This paper explores how a demand shock in an export market propagates through the domestic banking system. The 2014 dual shocks of sanctions and falling oil prices significantly reduced sales for Italian exporters to Russia, leading to increased liquidity needs. Banks more exposed to these exporters accommodated their credit demand to address liquidity shortfalls but simultaneously reduced credit supply, especially to ex ante risky borrowers not directly affected by the shock. Our findings suggest a bank capital channel at play, mitigating trade shocks for some firms while transmitting them to the broader economy.

本文探讨了出口市场的需求冲击如何通过国内银行体系传播。2014年，制裁和油价下跌的双重冲击大大减少了意大利出口商对俄罗斯的销售，导致流动性需求增加。对这些出口商敞口更大的银行调整了信贷需求，以解决流动性短缺问题，但同时减少了信贷供应，尤其是对未直接受到冲击影响的高风险借款人。我们的研究结果表明，银行的资本渠道在发挥作用，减轻了一些公司的贸易冲击，同时将其传导到更广泛的经济领域。

引用次数: 0

Knockin’ on H(e)aven’s door. Financial crises and offshore wealth 敲着天堂的门。金融危机和离岸财富

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104175

Silvia Marchesi , Giovanna Marcolongo

This paper investigates the relationship between financial crises in developing countries and variation of bank deposits in offshore financial centers. Using a stacked difference-in-differences estimator, we find that three years after the onset of the crisis, bank deposits in tax havens increase by almost 30 percent. The effect appears independent of tax rates and is primarily driven by countries with weak institutions. We add to the literature on tax havens as we find that they not only facilitate tax evasion and corruption in “normal times”, but also absorb resources during financial crises, when most needed.

本文研究了发展中国家金融危机与离岸金融中心银行存款变动之间的关系。使用堆叠差中差估计器，我们发现，在危机爆发三年后，避税天堂的银行存款增加了近30%。这种影响似乎与税率无关，主要是由制度薄弱的国家造成的。我们增加了关于避税天堂的文献，因为我们发现，它们不仅在“正常时期”为逃税和腐败提供便利，而且在金融危机期间，在最需要的时候，也会吸收资源。

引用次数: 0

Policy rules and large crises in emerging markets 新兴市场的政策规则和大规模危机

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104179

Emilio César Espino , Julian Kozlowski , Fernando M. Martin , Juan M. Sánchez

Emerging economies have adopted fiscal and monetary rules to discipline government policy. We study the value and macroeconomic implications of rules and flexibility within a sovereign-default model that incorporates domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. Adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times yields welfare gains. Suspending rules can significantly influence policy, macroeconomic outcomes, and welfare during large, unforeseen crises. The gains from flexibility depend on how quickly policymakers are able to reimpose rules after the crisis.

新兴经济体采用财政和货币规则来约束政府政策。我们研究了包含国内财政和货币政策以及长期外债的主权违约模型中规则和灵活性的价值和宏观经济影响。在正常时期采用货币目标和债务上限会带来福利收益。在不可预见的大规模危机期间，暂停规则会对政策、宏观经济结果和福利产生重大影响。灵活性带来的好处取决于政策制定者在危机后能够多快地重新实施规则。

引用次数: 0

Interest rate uncertainty as a policy tool? 利率不确定性作为政策工具？

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104180

Fabio Ghironi , Galip Kemal Ozhan

We study an unconventional policy tool – interest rate uncertainty – that may be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external accounts between short-term securities and foreign direct investment (FDI). We show that identified interest rate volatility shocks in several emerging markets lower GDP growth, raise inflation, improve the current account, and depreciate the real exchange rate. In a calibrated open-economy New Keynesian model, we introduce a policy rule that endogenously adjusts the volatility of interest rate shocks in response to capital-flow drivers. The uncertainty policy discourages short-term portfolio inflows through portfolio-risk and consumption-smoothing channels, while a markup channel, reinforced by exchange-rate depreciation, attracts FDI. The strength of the markup transmission depends on exchange-rate pass-through. The uncertainty policy may be welfare improving if designed against uncertainty shocks that drive capital flows. However, it may be welfare reducing against level shocks that drive capital inflows.

我们研究了一种非常规的政策工具——利率不确定性——它可以用来阻止低效的资本流入，并调整短期证券和外国直接投资（FDI）之间的外部账户构成。我们表明，在几个新兴市场中，确定的利率波动冲击降低了GDP增长，提高了通胀，改善了经常账户，并使实际汇率贬值。在一个经过校准的开放经济新凯恩斯模型中，我们引入了一个政策规则，该规则内生地调整利率冲击的波动性，以响应资本流动驱动因素。不确定性政策通过投资组合风险和消费平滑渠道阻止短期投资组合流入，而由汇率贬值加强的加价渠道则吸引外国直接投资。加价传递的强度取决于汇率传递。如果不确定性政策是针对驱动资本流动的不确定性冲击而设计的，那么它可能会改善福利。然而，推动资本流入的可能是减少福利以应对水平冲击。

引用次数: 0

Service Trade, regional specialization, and welfare 服务贸易、区域专业化与社会福利

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104178

Yuancheng Han , Jorge Miranda-Pinto , Satoshi Tanaka

How much does trade in services affect regional production specialization and welfare? Using unique Canadian trade data, we document that the size of inter-provincial service trade is comparable to that of good trade, and that net exports of services are highly correlated with the value-added share of services across provinces. With a spatial model featuring domestic and international trade, we quantify the effects of service trade. Our results highlight that domestic service trade significantly promotes regional specialization, with heterogeneous welfare gains that reduce regional disparities. Conversely, international service trade generates more uniform welfare gains across provinces.

服务贸易对区域生产专业化和福利的影响有多大？利用独特的加拿大贸易数据，我们证明了省际服务贸易的规模与商品贸易的规模相当，服务的净出口与各省间服务的增值份额高度相关。通过构建国内贸易与国际贸易的空间模型，量化了服务贸易的影响。我们的研究结果表明，国内服务贸易显著促进了区域专业化，异质性福利收益减少了区域差异。相反，国际服务贸易在各省之间产生的福利收益更加统一。

引用次数: 0

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