Journal of International Economics最新文献

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Argentina: The honor student—By merit and by mistake. A natural experiment on “information effects” 阿根廷：优等生——有优点也有缺点。关于“信息效应”的自然实验

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104177

Oscar Meneses, Lorenzo Menna, Martin Tobal

On January 7, 2025, Argentina's EMBI spread plunged by over 114 basis points. J.P. Morgan later revealed that the decline was due to a technical error, creating a rare natural experiment—an exogenous shift in sovereign risk pricing. Because this error was neither anticipated nor related to Argentina's fundamentals or global conditions, the experiment provides a unique setting to identify the “information effect,” whereby investors update their beliefs in response to noisy signals embedded in price movements. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach and high-frequency (intraday) stock market data, we find that Argentine equities outperformed those of other EMEs during the error window, indicating that investors revised their asset valuations based on mispriced signals. These results underscore the importance of clear and timely communication in emerging market economies to prevent second-order effects that, despite solid fundamentals, can trigger herding behavior and macrofinancial instability.

2025年1月7日，阿根廷EMBI利差暴跌超过114个基点。摩根大通后来透露，这一下降是由于一个技术错误，创造了一个罕见的自然实验——主权风险定价的外生变化。由于这一错误既没有预料到，也与阿根廷的基本面或全球状况无关，因此该实验提供了一个独特的环境来识别“信息效应”，即投资者根据价格变动中嵌入的嘈杂信号更新他们的信念。利用差中之差方法和高频（盘中）股市数据，我们发现阿根廷股票在错误窗口期间的表现优于其他eme，表明投资者根据错误定价信号修正了资产估值。这些结果强调了新兴市场经济体明确和及时沟通的重要性，以防止二阶效应，尽管基本面稳固，但可能引发羊群行为和宏观金融不稳定。

引用次数: 0

Fiscal policy design in collateral-constraint economies: The role of commitment 抵押品约束经济中的财政政策设计：承诺的作用

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104176

Paolo Varraso

I study the optimal design of fiscal policy, with and without commitment, in collateral-constraint models where the households’ borrowing capacity is linked to the economy’s real exchange rate. When the collateral constraint is binding, increasing public spending raises the real exchange rate and stabilizes private consumption. However, by making potential crises less costly, higher spending also makes borrowing more attractive. I show that the Ramsey-optimal policy entails a commitment to restrict fiscal stimulus during crisis periods, aimed at deterring excessive debt accumulation. In a quantitative application to Argentina, I show that, despite the potential for substantial ex-post gains from stabilizing the real exchange rate, significant fiscal expansions are not optimal because of the borrowing inefficiency.

我在抵押品约束模型中研究了财政政策的最优设计，无论是否有承诺，其中家庭的借贷能力与经济的实际汇率挂钩。当抵押品约束具有约束力时，增加公共支出会提高实际汇率，稳定私人消费。然而，通过降低潜在危机的成本，更高的支出也使借贷更具吸引力。我指出，拉姆齐最优政策需要承诺在危机期间限制财政刺激，以阻止债务过度积累。在对阿根廷的定量应用中，我表明，尽管稳定实际汇率可能带来巨大的事后收益，但由于借贷效率低下，大幅财政扩张并非最佳选择。

引用次数: 0

Foreign direct investment as a long-term capital flow channel: Evidence from Japan 外国直接投资作为长期资本流动渠道：来自日本的证据

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104158

Naohisa Hirakata , Mitsuru Katagiri

This paper investigates the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in accounting for the long-term trend of capital flows under demographic changes. For this purpose, we incorporate horizontal FDI under the proximity-concentration trade-off into a two-country DSGE model and conduct a quantitative analysis using long-term Japanese data for capital flows since the 1960s. The quantitative analysis finds that the transition dynamics solely driven by demographic changes well account for the long-term trend of capital flows and that multinational firms’ endogenous decision on FDI in response to population aging is key to explaining the long-term trend.

本文研究了外国直接投资（FDI）对人口结构变化下资本流动长期趋势的影响。为此，我们将接近-集中权衡下的横向FDI纳入两国DSGE模型，并使用日本自20世纪60年代以来的长期资本流动数据进行定量分析。定量分析发现，仅由人口变化驱动的转型动态很好地解释了资本流动的长期趋势，跨国公司应对人口老龄化的内生FDI决策是解释长期趋势的关键。

引用次数: 0

Housing demand, inequality, and spatial sorting 住房需求、不平等和空间分类

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104171

John Finlay , Trevor C. Williams

Skilled workers’ incomes have pulled away from those of unskilled workers in recent decades, reflecting increasing skill bias in production. How has this changed the spatial distribution of skill? We show nonhomothetic housing demand connects aggregate income inequality to spatial sorting. A household’s skill level determines its income, and therefore its housing expenditure share, sensitivity to housing costs, and location preferences. The result is spatial sorting by skill. Moreover, diverging incomes cause diverging location choices. Using consumption microdata, we estimate that housing is a necessity. Increasing total expenditure by 10% reduces housing expenditure shares by 2.5%. Skilled workers therefore sort into expensive cities, and by raising their relative incomes, increases in aggregate skill bias intensify sorting. Embedding our estimated preferences in a quantitative spatial model, we find that without rising aggregate skill bias, spatial sorting would have grown one quarter less since 1980.

近几十年来，熟练工人的收入已经拉开了与非熟练工人的差距，这反映出生产中越来越多的技能偏见。这是如何改变技能的空间分布的？我们表明，非同质性住房需求将总收入不平等与空间分类联系起来。一个家庭的技能水平决定了它的收入，因此也决定了它的住房支出份额、对住房成本的敏感性和位置偏好。结果是按技能进行空间排序。此外，收入差异导致了区位选择的差异。使用消费微观数据，我们估计住房是必需品。总开支增加10%，房屋开支占比就会减少2.5%。因此，熟练工人进入生活成本较高的城市，通过提高他们的相对收入，总技能偏差的增加加剧了分类。将我们估计的偏好嵌入到定量空间模型中，我们发现，如果没有不断上升的总技能偏差，自1980年以来，空间排序的增长将减少四分之一。

引用次数: 0

Credit and firms’ organization 信用与企业组织

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104172

Alessandro Sforza , Edoardo Maria Acabbi

We investigate how credit availability affects the organization of firms’ labor. We construct a firm-specific credit supply instrument derived from firm-bank credit linkages, and conduct an event study analyzing labor restructuring decisions within Portuguese firms. Our analysis uncovers a clear nexus between credit availability and labor adjustments. Specifically, firms that invest in machines and equipment are more sensitive to credit shortages. As a result, they tend to adjust their workforce by reducing the number of production and specialized workers closely associated with machine operations. These findings shed light on how credit dynamics shape labor decisions within firms, providing insights into aggregate responses to financial limitations.

我们研究了信贷可获得性如何影响企业劳动力的组织。我们从企业-银行信贷联系中构建了一个企业特定的信贷供应工具，并进行了一项事件研究，分析了葡萄牙企业的劳动力重组决策。我们的分析揭示了信贷可获得性和劳动力调整之间的明确联系。具体来说，投资于机器和设备的公司对信贷短缺更为敏感。因此，他们倾向于通过减少与机器操作密切相关的生产和专业工人的数量来调整他们的劳动力。这些发现揭示了信贷动态如何影响企业内部的劳动力决策，提供了对财务限制的总体反应的见解。

引用次数: 0

Trade policy uncertainty and innovation: Evidence from China 贸易政策不确定性与创新：来自中国的证据

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104170

Federica Coelli

This paper analyzes the effect of resolving trade policy uncertainty on innovation in China from 1990 to 2007. Exploiting exogenous and heterogeneous exposure to the elimination of U.S. tariff uncertainty, together with detailed innovation data, the analysis shows that reducing tariff uncertainty generated economically and statistically significant increases in innovation. This increase represents actual innovation, and not just more patent filings. The timing of the response is heterogeneous: lower-quality innovations respond quickly, while higher-quality and higher-opportunity-cost innovations respond more gradually. Innovation increases along three margins: entry into new technologies, patents with broader technological scope, and innovation within firms’ existing technological portfolios. More exposed sectors experience larger increases in first-time patenting firms. Finally, the increase in innovation is at least in part driven by exports to the US.

本文分析了1990 - 2007年中国化解贸易政策不确定性对创新的影响。利用消除美国关税不确定性的外生和异质性风险，以及详细的创新数据，分析表明，减少关税不确定性会在经济和统计上显著增加创新。这一增长代表了真正的创新，而不仅仅是更多的专利申请。反应的时间是异构的：低质量的创新反应迅速，而高质量和高机会成本的创新反应缓慢。创新沿着三个边缘增长：进入新技术，拥有更广泛技术范围的专利，以及在公司现有技术组合内的创新。更多的行业首次申请专利的公司数量增幅更大。最后，创新的增加至少在一定程度上是由对美出口推动的。

引用次数: 0

Liquidity as competitive advantage: The role of intangibles 流动资金作为竞争优势：无形资产的作用

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104168

Carlo Altomonte , Monica Morlacco , Tommaso Sonno , Domenico Favoino

We show that short-term liquidity can be a source of competitive advantage by enabling firms to invest in intangible assets. Our analysis leverages a French reform that capped payment delays in trade credit contracts, which generated quasi-experimental variation in corporate liquidity across manufacturing firms. Higher liquidity led to significantly greater investment in intangibles, which, in turn, raised markups and market shares. These results suggest a strategic role for liquidity in shaping firm performance, indicating that initial financial conditions can have lasting effects on productivity and market structure.

我们表明，短期流动性可以通过使企业投资于无形资产而成为竞争优势的来源。我们的分析利用了法国的一项改革，该改革限制了贸易信贷合同中的付款延迟，这在制造业企业的企业流动性中产生了准实验性的变化。较高的流动性导致无形资产的投资显著增加，这反过来又提高了利润率和市场份额。这些结果表明，流动性在塑造企业绩效方面具有战略作用，表明初始财务状况可以对生产率和市场结构产生持久影响。

引用次数: 0

Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy 多维度美国货币政策的全球溢出效应

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104169

Georgios Georgiadis, Marek Jarociński

We estimate international spillovers from both conventional and unconventional US monetary policy. We use novel measures of exogenous variation in conventional policy, forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs), based on high-frequency asset price surprises around a broad set of Federal Reserve communications. The identification relies on relatively weak assumptions and accounts for potential endogenous policy components – including central bank information effects – in these asset price surprises. We find that: (i) conventional policy, forward guidance and LSAPs all generate large and comparable spillovers; (ii) these spillovers transmit through trade and financial channels to a similar extent; (iii) LSAPs trigger immediate international portfolio rebalancing between US and foreign bonds that are relatively close substitutes, but they produce only limited spillovers in term premia; (iv) all Fed policy measures create trade-offs for emerging market monetary policy between stabilizing output and prices vs. ensuring financial stability, particularly with regard to capital inflows.

我们估计了美国传统和非常规货币政策的国际溢出效应。我们在常规政策、前瞻指引和大规模资产购买（LSAPs）中使用了新的外生变量测量方法，这些方法基于围绕美联储广泛沟通的高频资产价格意外。这种识别依赖于相对薄弱的假设，并考虑了这些资产价格意外中潜在的内生政策成分——包括央行信息效应。我们发现：(1)传统政策、前瞻指导和大规模经济政策计划都会产生巨大的、可比较的溢出效应；（ii）这些溢出效应通过贸易和金融渠道传播的程度相似；（iii） LSAPs会立即触发美国和外国债券之间的国际投资组合再平衡，而这些债券是相对接近的替代品，但它们在期限溢价方面只产生有限的溢出效应；（iv）美联储的所有政策措施都会在稳定产出和价格与确保金融稳定（特别是在资本流入方面）之间为新兴市场货币政策做出权衡。

引用次数: 0

The macroeconomic cost of temperature risk 温度风险的宏观经济成本

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104157

Piergiorgio Alessandri , Haroon Mumtaz

We study the impact of temperature risk on economic growth exploiting a novel panel VAR model and data on 160 countries since the 1960s. We show that the conditional volatility of annual temperatures – a measure of ex ante temperature risk – varied significantly over time, with important implications for growth. Controlling for concomitant changes in temperature levels, an exogenous +1 °C increase in temperature risk causes on average a 0.4 per cent decline in GDP growth and a one per cent increase in the volatility of GDP.

我们利用一种新的面板VAR模型和160个国家自20世纪60年代以来的数据研究了温度风险对经济增长的影响。我们表明，年温度的条件波动率（一种事前温度风险的度量）随着时间的推移而显著变化，对增长具有重要意义。控制了伴随的温度水平变化，温度风险每增加1°C，就会导致国内生产总值增长平均下降0.4%，国内生产总值波动率增加1%。

引用次数: 0

Climate change-related regulatory risks and bank lending 与气候变化相关的监管风险和银行贷款

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104156

Isabella Mueller , Eleonora Sfrappini

We analyze how firms’ climate change-related regulatory risks affect banks’ lending. Exploiting the Paris Agreement in a difference-in-differences setting, we find that effects depend on how borrowers will be affected by regulation as well as the stringency of the existing regulatory environment where firms are located. Firms that benefit from regulation receive more credit only if located in more stringent regulatory environments. Conversely, firms hurt by regulation receive more credit if located in less stringent environments or if linked to banks with a portfolio tilted towards lending to negatively impacted firms.

我们分析了企业与气候变化相关的监管风险如何影响银行的贷款。利用《巴黎协定》在“差异中的差异”背景下的研究，我们发现其效果取决于监管对借款人的影响程度，以及企业所在的现有监管环境的严格程度。从监管中受益的公司只有在更严格的监管环境中才能获得更多的信贷。相反，受到监管伤害的公司如果位于不那么严格的环境中，或者与投资组合倾向于向受到负面影响的公司提供贷款的银行有联系，则可以获得更多的信贷。

引用次数: 0

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