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Bank Behavior in Developing Countries: Evidence from East Africa 发展中国家的银行行为:来自东非的证据
Pub Date : 2005-06-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451861488.001
Richard Podpiera, M. Čihák
We analyze the structure, performance, and role of banking systems in the three member countries of the East African CommunityKenya, Tanzania, and Ugandaagainst the backdrop of recent financial sector reforms. Focusing on the behavior of different types of banks, we find no support for the argument that the presence of large international banks would have an adverse effect on the effectiveness and efficiency of banking sectors in developing countries. International banks are generally more efficient and more active in lending than domestic banks. However, as suggested by the Kenyan experience, the presence of international banks may not lead to increased competition and provision of banking services if weak institutions are allowed to remain in the system.
我们分析了东非共同体三个成员国、肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚和乌干达银行体系的结构、绩效和作用,并以最近的金融部门改革为背景。关注不同类型银行的行为,我们发现没有证据支持大型国际银行的存在会对发展中国家银行业的有效性和效率产生不利影响的论点。国际银行在放贷方面通常比国内银行效率更高,也更积极。然而,正如肯尼亚的经验所表明的那样,如果允许薄弱的机构留在系统中,国际银行的存在可能不会导致竞争和提供银行服务的增加。
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引用次数: 64
Regional Integration of Stock Exchanges in Eastern and Southern Africa: Progress and Prospects 东部和南部非洲证券交易所的区域一体化:进展与前景
Pub Date : 2005-06-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451861419.001.A001
J. Irving
This paper assesses whether regional cooperation and integration of stock exchanges in eastern and southern Africa could offer a way of overcoming impediments to the exchanges` development. The paper concludes that regional cooperation and, at a later stage, integration, if carried out at the right pace and in a pragmatic way, could improve the liquidity, efficiency, and competitiveness of these exchanges. Further progress in developing national financial markets must precede any actual moves to integrate securities markets. These exchanges could meanwhile benefit from closer cooperation, including by encouraging more crossborder listings and information/technology sharing.
本文评估了非洲东部和南部证券交易所的区域合作和一体化是否能为证券交易所的发展提供一条克服障碍的途径。本文的结论是,如果以适当的速度和务实的方式进行区域合作和后期的一体化,可以提高这些交流的流动性、效率和竞争力。在整合证券市场之前,必须在发展国家金融市场方面取得进一步进展。与此同时,这些交易所可以从更紧密的合作中受益,包括鼓励更多的跨境上市和信息/技术共享。
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引用次数: 75
Price Convergence Among Indian Cities: A Cointegration Approach 印度城市价格趋同:协整方法
Pub Date : 2005-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.877335
A. M. Morshed, Sung K. Ahn, Minsoo Lee
PricedynamicsinIndiancitieswereexaminedusingcointegrationanalysis.Weidentifiedandcalculateda commontrendforprices in25majorcities inIndia.Impulseresponsefunctionswere obtainedtocalculatethe rates of convergence to the prices and we found that the half-life of any shock is very small for Indian cities. Althougha close to3-monthhalf-life seemstoofast,thereissomeindicationinthe literaturethat half-life can bemuchsmallerthantheconventionalratesof3‐5years.Wehavecalculatedhalf-lifeusingthepanelunitroot method,andfoundthatestimatesofhalf-lifefromcointegrationanalysisprovideafasterconvergenceratethan estimates using the panel unit root method. We also analyzed how shock can be transmitted from one city to another and found no systematic behavior of transmission from one city to another.
PricedynamicsinIndiancitieswereexaminedusingcointegrationanalysis。我们确定并计算了印度25个主要城市的价格共同趋势。我们获得了脉冲响应函数来计算价格的收敛率,我们发现任何冲击的半衰期对于印度城市来说都非常小。虽然接近3个月的半衰期似乎很稳定,但在文献中有一些迹象表明,半衰期可能比传统的3- 5年短得多。我们使用面板单位根方法计算了半衰期,并发现协整分析的半衰期估计比使用面板单位根方法的估计提供了更快的收敛。我们还分析了冲击如何从一个城市传播到另一个城市,并没有发现从一个城市传播到另一个城市的系统行为。
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引用次数: 30
Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for 1996-2004 治理事项四:1996-2004年治理指标
Pub Date : 2005-05-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-3630
Daniel A. Kaufmann, Aart C. Kraay, Massimo Mastruzzi
The authors present the latest update of their aggregate governance indicators, together with new analysis of several issues related to the use of these measures. The governance indicators measure the following six dimensions of governance: (1) voice and accountability; (2) political instability and violence; (3) government effectiveness; (4) regulatory quality; (5) rule of law, and (6) control of corruption. They cover 209 countries and territories for 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. They are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 37 separate data sources constructed by 31 organizations. The authors present estimates of the six dimensions of governance for each period, as well as margins of error capturing the range of likely values for each country. These margins of error are not unique to perceptions-based measures of governance, but are an important feature of all efforts to measure governance, including objective indicators. In fact, the authors give examples of how individual objective measures provide an incomplete picture of even the quite particular dimensions of governance that they are intended to measure. The authors also analyze in detail changes over time in their estimates of governance; provide a framework for assessing the statistical significance of changes in governance; and suggest a simple rule of thumb for identifying statistically significant changes in country governance over time. The ability to identify significant changes in governance over time is much higher for aggregate indicators than for any individual indicator. While the authors find that the quality of governance in a number of countries has changed significantly (in both directions), they also provide evidence suggesting that there are no trends, for better or worse, in global averages of governance. Finally, they interpret the strong observed correlation between income and governance, and argue against recent efforts to apply a discount to governance performance in low-income countries.
作者介绍了其综合治理指标的最新更新,以及对与使用这些指标有关的几个问题的新分析。治理指标衡量治理的以下六个维度:(1)话语权和问责制;(2)政治动荡和暴力;(3)政府效能;(4)监管质量;(5)法治;(6)控制腐败。它们涵盖了1996年、1998年、2000年、2002年和2004年的209个国家和地区。它们基于数百个衡量治理感知的独立变量,这些变量来自31个组织构建的37个独立数据源。作者提出了对每个时期治理的六个维度的估计,以及捕捉每个国家可能值范围的误差幅度。这些误差范围并不是基于感知的治理度量所独有的,而是所有度量治理的努力(包括客观指标)的一个重要特征。事实上,作者给出了一些例子,说明单个客观度量如何提供了一幅不完整的图景,甚至是它们打算度量的相当特定的治理维度。作者还详细分析了他们对治理的估计随时间的变化;为评估治理变化的统计意义提供一个框架;并提出一个简单的经验法则,以确定国家治理在统计上的重大变化。随着时间的推移,总体指标识别治理中重大变化的能力要比任何单个指标高得多。虽然作者发现,许多国家的治理质量发生了显著变化(在两个方向上),但他们也提供了证据,表明全球平均治理水平没有趋势,无论好坏。最后,他们解释了观察到的收入与治理之间的强烈相关性,并反对最近对低收入国家的治理绩效进行折扣的努力。
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引用次数: 1893
Democratization and Clientelism: Why are Young Democracies Badly Governed? 民主化与庇护主义:为什么年轻的民主国家治理不善?
Pub Date : 2005-05-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-3594
Philip Keefer
This paper identifies systematic performance differences between younger and older democracies: younger democracies are more corrupt; exhibit less rule of law, lower levels of bureaucratic quality, and lower secondary school enrollments; and spend more on public investment and government workers. Only one theory explains the effects of democratic age on the wide range of policy outcomes examined here-the inability of political competitors in younger democracies to make credible promises to citizens. This explanation, first advanced in Keefer and Vlaicu (2004), offers a concrete interpretation of what political institutionalization might mean, and why it is that young democracies frequently fail to become older and well-performing democracies. A variety of tests support this explanation against alternatives. The effect of democratic age remains large even after controlling for the possibilities that voters are less well-informed in young democracies, that young democracies have systematically different political and electoral institutions, or that young democracies exhibit more polarized societies.
本文确定了较年轻和较老民主国家之间的系统性表现差异:较年轻的民主国家更腐败;法治程度较低,官僚质量水平较低,中学入学率较低;在公共投资和政府工作人员上花更多的钱。只有一种理论可以解释民主年龄对本文所考察的广泛政策结果的影响——年轻民主国家的政治竞争者无力向公民做出可信的承诺。这一解释首先在Keefer和Vlaicu(2004)中提出,它对政治制度化可能意味着什么,以及为什么年轻的民主国家经常无法成为历史悠久、表现良好的民主国家提供了具体的解释。各种各样的测试都支持这种解释,而不是其他的解释。民主年龄的影响仍然很大,即使在控制了以下可能性之后:年轻的民主国家的选民不太了解情况,年轻的民主国家有系统不同的政治和选举机构,或者年轻的民主国家表现出更两极化的社会。
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引用次数: 119
Is Political Risk Company-Specific? The Market Side of the Yukos Affair 政治风险是公司特有的吗?尤科斯事件的市场一面
Pub Date : 2005-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.676875
Alexei P. Goriaev, K. Sonin
The Yukos affair, a high-profile story of the state-led assault on a private Russian company, provides an excellent opportunity for an inquiry into the nature of company-specific political risks in emerging markets. News associated primarily with law enforcement agencies’ actions against company’s managers, not formally related to the company itself, caused significant negative abnormal returns for Yukos. The results are robust and not driven by a few major events, such as the arrests of Yukos’ top managers and shareholders. Stocks of less transparent private Russian companies have been more sensitive to Yukos-related events, especially employee-related charges by law enforcement agencies. The situation was different for less transparent government-owned companies such as the world-largest natural gas producer Gazprom: they appear to be significantly less sensitive to these events. Actions of regulatory agencies have had predominantly industry-wide impact, whereas law-enforcement agencies’ actions affected shares of large private companies, especially those privatized in the notorious loans-for-shares privatization auctions.
尤科斯事件是一个备受瞩目的故事,讲述了政府主导的对一家俄罗斯私营企业的攻击,它为调查新兴市场企业特有的政治风险的性质提供了一个极好的机会。主要与执法机构对公司经理采取行动有关的新闻,与公司本身没有正式关系,给尤科斯公司带来了显著的负异常回报。该公司业绩强劲,并非受到尤科斯高管和股东被捕等少数重大事件的推动。透明度较低的俄罗斯私营公司的股票对与尤科斯有关的事件更为敏感,尤其是执法机构提出的与员工有关的指控。对于透明度较低的国有企业,如全球最大的天然气生产商俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom),情况就不同了:它们对这些事件的敏感程度似乎要低得多。监管机构的行动主要对整个行业产生影响,而执法机构的行动影响的是大型私营公司的股票,尤其是那些在臭名昭著的贷款换股私有化拍卖中私有化的公司。
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引用次数: 37
Carrot or Stick? Contract Frame and Use of Decision-Influencing Information in a Principal-Agent Setting 胡萝卜还是大棒?委托代理环境下契约框架与决策影响信息的使用
Pub Date : 2005-04-14 DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-679X.2005.00187.x
James R. Frederickson, W. Waller
A fundamental management accounting issue is how to incorporate decision-influencing information (e.g., an ex post state signal) into employment contracts. Our experiment examines the effects of contract framing on such information use in a principal-agent setting. In each of 40 rounds, participants (as employer and worker) negotiate a contract that specifies pay depending on an ex post state signal. State-signal pay is framed as either a bonus or a penalty over two groups. The results show that the bonus frame facilitates information use, because of worker loss aversion. Although both groups initially underweigh the state signal, the bonus group quickly converges toward the optimal weight, whereas the penalty group persistently underweighs the state signal.
管理会计的一个基本问题是如何将影响决策的信息(例如,事后状态信号)纳入雇佣合同。我们的实验检验了合同框架对委托代理环境下信息使用的影响。在40轮的每一轮中,参与者(作为雇主和工人)协商一份合同,根据事后状态信号指定工资。国家信号薪酬分为两类,要么是奖金,要么是罚款。结果表明,由于员工对损失的厌恶,奖金框架有利于信息的使用。尽管两组最初都低估了状态信号,但奖励组很快收敛到最优权重,而惩罚组则持续低估状态信号。
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引用次数: 63
Decomposing Changes in Income Inequality into Vertical and Horizontal Redistribution and Reranking, with Applications to China and Vietnam 收入不平等变化分解为纵向和横向再分配和再排名,并在中国和越南的应用
Pub Date : 2005-04-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-3559
A. Wagstaff
It is acknowledged that the lack of any systematic link between growth and income inequality does not necessarily mean that economic growth is not accompanied by major changes in the underlying income distribution. The author uses a method devised to decompose the redistributive effect of a tax to analyze the extent to which vertical redistribution associated with changing incomes over time is offset or reinforced by horizontal redistribution and re-ranking. He uses panel data from China and Vietnam over a period when both countries grew spectacularly as they transitioned from planned to market economies, and yet experienced smaller annual percentage increases in income inequality. The results suggest that substantial amounts of horizontal redistribution and re-ranking in both China-and to a lesser extent Vietnam-more than offset pro-poor vertical redistribution. Without the horizontal redistribution and re-ranking, the Gini coefficient for China might have fallen between 1989 and 1997-substantially so.
人们承认,经济增长和收入不平等之间缺乏任何系统的联系,并不一定意味着经济增长不会伴随着潜在收入分配的重大变化。作者使用了一种分解税收再分配效应的方法来分析与收入随时间变化相关的纵向再分配在多大程度上被横向再分配和重新排名所抵消或加强。他使用了来自中国和越南的面板数据,这两个国家在从计划经济向市场经济转型的过程中都取得了惊人的增长,但收入不平等的年增幅较小。结果表明,在中国和越南,大量的水平再分配和重新排名抵消了有利于穷人的垂直再分配。如果没有横向再分配和重新排序,中国的基尼系数可能会在1989年至1997年间大幅下降。
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引用次数: 22
Formation of Social Capital in Central and Eastern Europe: Understanding the Gap Vis-a-Vis Developed Countries 中东欧社会资本的形成:对与发达国家差距的认识
Pub Date : 2005-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.729324
J. Fidrmuc, K. Gërxhani
Recent Eurobarometer survey data are used to document and explain the stock of social capital in 27 European countries. Social capital in Central and Eastern Europe – measured by civic participation and access to social networks – lags behind that in Western European countries. Using regression analysis of determinants of individual stock of social capital, we find that this gap persists when we account for individual characteristics and endowments of respondents but disappears completely after we control for aggregate measures of economic development and quality of institutions. Informal institutions such as prevalence of corruption appear particularly important.
最近的欧洲晴雨表调查数据被用来记录和解释27个欧洲国家的社会资本存量。中欧和东欧的社会资本——以公民参与和进入社会网络的机会来衡量——落后于西欧国家。通过对个人社会资本存量决定因素的回归分析,我们发现,当我们考虑到受访者的个人特征和禀赋时,这种差距仍然存在,但在我们控制了经济发展和制度质量的总体指标后,这种差距完全消失了。腐败盛行等非正式制度显得尤为重要。
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引用次数: 40
On the Shape of Posterior Densities and Credible Sets in Instrumental Variable Regression Models with Reduced Rank: An Application of Flexible Sampling Methods Using Neural Networks 降秩工具变量回归模型的后验密度和可信集的形状:神经网络灵活抽样方法的应用
Pub Date : 2005-03-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.878266
Lennart F. Hoogerheide, J. Kaashoek, H. V. Dijk
textabstractLikelihoods and posteriors of instrumental variable regression models with strongendogeneity and/or weak instruments may exhibit rather non-elliptical contours inthe parameter space. This may seriously affect inference based on Bayesian crediblesets. When approximating such contours using Monte Carlo integration methods likeimportance sampling or Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures the speed of the algorithmand the quality of the results greatly depend on the choice of the importance orcandidate density. Such a density has to be `close' to the target density in order toyield accurate results with numerically efficient sampling. For this purpose we introduce neural networks which seem to be natural importance or candidate densities, as they have a universal approximation property and are easy to sample from.A key step in the proposed class of methods is the construction of a neural network that approximates the target density accurately. The methods are tested on a set ofillustrative models. The results indicate the feasibility of the neural networkapproach.
具有强同质性和/或弱同质性的工具变量回归模型的似然和后验可能在参数空间中表现出相当非椭圆的轮廓。这可能会严重影响基于贝叶斯可信集的推理。当使用蒙特卡罗积分方法,如重要采样或马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗程序逼近这些轮廓时,算法的速度和结果的质量在很大程度上取决于重要性或候选密度的选择。这样的密度必须“接近”目标密度,以便通过数值上有效的采样产生准确的结果。为此,我们引入了似乎是自然重要性或候选密度的神经网络,因为它们具有普遍的近似性质并且易于采样。这类方法的关键步骤是构建一个精确逼近目标密度的神经网络。在一组说明性模型上对这些方法进行了验证。结果表明了神经网络方法的可行性。
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引用次数: 107
期刊
Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal
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