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Regulation and Growth 监管与增长
Pub Date : 2006-03-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.893321
Simeon Djankov, Caralee McLiesh, R. Ramalho
Why some countries grow faster than others is one of the most important questions in economics. Solving this puzzle has the obvious appeal of improving the living standards for a significant proportion of the world population. We go further towards answering this question by studying a major determinant of growth: regulations governing business activity. Our results also have significant implications for policy. They suggest that countries should put priority on reforming their business regulations when designing growth policies. Measures of institutions currently used in the growth literature indicate the extent of problems but not how to resolve them. By contrast the indicators in the Doing Business database are directly linked to specific reforms. For example the procedures to register a business or property can be cut by combining them at a one-stop shop for businesses. Establishing a credit bureau or reducing mandated severance pay for workers will also improve performance on the business regulations index. Our findings imply that identifying and implementing such reforms can accelerate economic growth.
为什么有些国家比其他国家增长得快是经济学中最重要的问题之一。解决这一难题具有明显的吸引力,可以提高世界上很大一部分人口的生活水平。为了进一步回答这个问题,我们研究了增长的一个主要决定因素:管理商业活动的法规。我们的研究结果对政策也有重要意义。他们建议各国在制定增长政策时应优先考虑改革其商业法规。目前在增长文献中使用的制度衡量指标表明了问题的程度,而不是如何解决问题。相比之下,《营商环境报告》数据库中的指标与具体改革直接挂钩。例如,注册企业或财产的程序可以通过将它们合并在一个一站式的企业商店来减少。设立信用局或减少员工的强制遣散费也会改善企业规章指数的表现。我们的研究结果表明,识别和实施这些改革可以加速经济增长。
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引用次数: 570
The Investment Portfolio of the Life Insurance Industry in China: Peculiar Constraints and the Specialist Problem 中国寿险行业投资组合:特殊约束与专家问题
Pub Date : 2006-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6296.2006.00086.x
D. Li
This article describes the particular investment and legal constraints on the life insurance investment portfolio in China (the "Portfolio") and investigates the specialist problem. The "specialist problem" is here defined as an agency problem as in information economics. In September 2004, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission ("CIRC") announced that three of the four largest life insurance companies in China could not meet the mandatory capital adequacy requirement. The author found that although it is harder to manage the Portfolio because of the peculiar constraints, the main characteristic of the poor performance of the Portfolio - failing to meet the capital requirement - is due to the specialist problem, which is mainly due to the controlled economic system. In conclusion, the author suggests specialists and risk management strategies that can be implemented in China with immediate effect, taking into consideration data deficiency and the difficulty of contract enforcement in China.
本文描述了中国人寿保险投资组合(“投资组合”)的特殊投资和法律约束,并探讨了专家问题。“专家问题”在这里被定义为信息经济学中的代理问题。2004年9月,中国保监会宣布,中国四大寿险公司中有三家达不到强制性资本充足率要求。笔者发现,虽然由于特殊的约束条件使得投资组合管理难度加大,但投资组合表现不佳的主要特征——未能达到资本要求——是由于专家问题,而专家问题主要是由于受控的经济体制。综上所述,考虑到数据不足和中国合同执行的困难,作者建议专家和风险管理策略可以在中国立即实施。
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引用次数: 2
Corporate Governance Solutions for Transition Economies: Representations and Warranties in Takeover Agreements 转型经济体的公司治理解决方案:收购协议中的陈述和保证
Pub Date : 2006-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.914173
Diana Pop
The decline of stoc k markets in the transition economies must make the phenomenon of ownership concentration go hand in hand with a more important due diligence and a search for solutions preserving the channel of external financing. In the absence of concrete formal pro- cedures that pay back the restructuring effort, majority owners decisively affect the allocation of companies' wealth in detrimental of small shareholders. When mandatory bid rule is effective, completing takeovers at high prices makes capital markets shrink, affecting on long term the mere capitalist conception of the economic regime of transition economies. Some new forms of en- forcement mechanisms have to be proposed in order to mitigate the classical corporate governance conflict between large and minority shareholders. Our approach aims to investigate an option asking for private law enforcement, which could encourage controlling shareholder to disclose the real status of the business being sold: representation and warranties in takeover agreements. In this respect, we propose a screening model, in the case of a cash—financing acquisition. The pur- pose of this formalization is to determine the features of the acquisition contract in equilibrium, defined by the amount of cash offered for control and by the fraction of liability assumed by the target in two different contexts: (i) when the buyer and the target have the same information; and (ii) when information asymmetry arises between the two parties. The model provides some theoretical predictions concerning the optimal amount of cash, the acquisition premium, and the overpayment of the target. It also contributes to the debate on the type of legal changes relevant for transition economies. JEL classification: G32; G34; L14
转型期经济中股票市场的衰落必须使所有权集中现象与更重要的尽职调查和寻求保持外部融资渠道的解决办法同时发生。在缺乏具体的正式程序来回报重组努力的情况下,多数股东决定性地影响了公司财富的分配,不利于小股东。当强制投标规则有效时,以高价完成收购会使资本市场萎缩,长期影响转型经济体经济体制的纯粹资本主义概念。为了缓解大股东和小股东之间的传统公司治理冲突,必须提出一些新的执行机制形式。我们的方法旨在调查一种要求私人执法的选择,这可能会鼓励控股股东披露被出售业务的真实状况:收购协议中的陈述和保证。在这方面,我们提出了一种现金融资收购的筛选模型。这种形式化的目的是确定均衡收购合同的特征,由两种不同情况下为控制权提供的现金数量和目标方承担的责任比例来定义:(i)当买方和目标方拥有相同的信息时;(二)双方发生信息不对称时。该模型对收购目标的最优现金量、收购溢价和超额支付提供了一些理论预测。它还有助于就与转型经济有关的法律变革类型进行辩论。JEL分类:G32;G34;L14
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引用次数: 0
The Effectiveness of European Active Labor Market Policy 欧洲积极劳动力市场政策的有效性
Pub Date : 2006-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.892341
Jochen Kluve
Measures of Active Labor Market Policy are widely used in European countries, but despite many econometric evaluation studies no conclusive cross-country evidence exists regarding ?what program works for what target group under what (economic and institutional) circumstances??. This paper results from an extensive research project for the European Commission aimed at answering that question using a meta-analytical framework. The empirical results are surprisingly clear-cut: Rather than contextual factors such as labor market institutions or the business cycle, it is almost exclusively the program type that matters for program effectiveness. While direct employment programs in the public sector appear detrimental,wage subsidies and ?Services and Sanctions? can be effective in increasing participants? employment probability.
积极劳动力市场政策的措施在欧洲国家被广泛使用,但尽管有许多计量经济评估研究,但没有确凿的跨国证据存在,关于什么计划在什么(经济和制度)环境下对什么目标群体有效?本文来自欧盟委员会的一个广泛的研究项目,旨在使用元分析框架回答这个问题。实证结果令人惊讶地清晰:与劳动力市场制度或商业周期等背景因素相比,几乎完全是项目类型对项目有效性的影响。虽然公共部门的直接就业计划似乎是有害的,但工资补贴和“服务与制裁”能有效地增加参与者吗?就业概率。
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引用次数: 368
The Institutional Theory of John R. Commons: Foundation for a Heterodox Labor Economics 约翰·r·Commons的制度理论:一个非正统劳动经济学的基础
Pub Date : 2006-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.889387
Bruce E. Kaufman
Over the last three decades neoclassical economic theory has become the dominate approach for the study of labor, most clearly in North America but also increasingly in Europe and elsewhere. Rival heterodox approaches, on the other hand, are threatened with marginalization, partly due to the imperializing tendencies of neoclassical economics and partly due to the inability of heterodox economists to articulate an alternative unified theoretical framework. The purpose of this paper is to push forward the heterodox project by outlining a theoretical framework and set of core ideas that may provide the basis for an alterative paradigm. Toward this end, I re-examine the theoretical writings of institutional economist John R. Commons and describe and synthesize his theory of institutional economics. Although his theory is general, I focus on its application to the study of labor. Key concepts are bounded rationality, property rights, working rules, institutions, transactions, and incomplete contracts. I argue that these concepts not only form a coherent body of theory but also give rise to numerous insights and predictions about labor markets and the employment relationship, highlight crucial weaknesses and lacunas in the neoclassical approach, and provide a theoretical framework for an integration of the economic and social dimensions of human behavior.
在过去的三十年里,新古典主义经济理论已经成为劳动研究的主导方法,这在北美最为明显,但在欧洲和其他地方也越来越多。另一方面,与之竞争的非正统方法受到边缘化的威胁,部分原因是新古典经济学的帝国主义倾向,部分原因是非正统经济学家无法阐明另一种统一的理论框架。本文的目的是通过概述一个理论框架和一组核心思想来推动非正统项目,这些理论框架和核心思想可能为替代范式提供基础。为此,我重新审视了制度经济学家约翰·r·考姆斯的理论著作,并对他的制度经济学理论进行了描述和综合。虽然他的理论是一般性的,但我着重于它在劳动研究中的应用。关键概念是有限理性、产权、工作规则、制度、交易和不完全合同。我认为,这些概念不仅形成了一个连贯的理论体系,而且还产生了许多关于劳动力市场和雇佣关系的见解和预测,突出了新古典主义方法中的关键弱点和空白,并为人类行为的经济和社会维度的整合提供了一个理论框架。
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引用次数: 3
To Peg or Not to Peg: A Template for Assessing the Nobler 钉还是不钉:一个评估贵族的模板
Pub Date : 2006-02-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451863147.001
A. Husain
This paper proposes a template for assessing whether or not a country's economic and financial characteristics make it an appropriate candidate for a pegged exchange rate regime. The template employs quantifiable measures of attributes - trade orientation, financial integration, economic diversification, macroeconomic stabilization, credibility, and "fear-of-floating" type effects - that have been identified in the literature as key potential determinants of regime choice. To illustrate, the template is applied to Kazakhstan and Pakistan. The results indicate a fairly strong case against a pegged regime in Pakistan. The implications for Kazakhstan are mixed, although changes in that economy in recent years strengthen the case against a peg.
本文提出了一个模板,用于评估一个国家的经济和金融特征是否使其成为钉住汇率制度的合适候选者。该模板采用了可量化的属性指标——贸易导向、金融一体化、经济多样化、宏观经济稳定、可信度和“浮动恐惧”效应——这些指标在文献中被认为是制度选择的关键潜在决定因素。为了说明这一点,我们将模板应用于哈萨克斯坦和巴基斯坦。调查结果表明,巴基斯坦实行钉住汇率制度的理由相当充分。这对哈萨克斯坦的影响是复杂的,尽管该国经济近年来的变化加强了反对盯住美元的理由。
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引用次数: 20
'The Road to Serfdom' with 'the Intellectuals and Socialism' 《通往农奴制之路》与《知识分子与社会主义》
Pub Date : 2006-01-31 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.878756
J. Blundell, F. Hayek, Edwin J. Feulner, W. Williams
In "The Road to Serfdom," F. A. Hayek set out the danger posed to freedom by attempts to apply the principles of wartime economic and social planning to the problems of peacetime. Hayek argued that the rise of Nazism was not due to any character failure on the part of the German people, but was a consequence of the socialist ideas that had gained common currency in Germany in the decades preceding the outbreak of war. Such ideas, Hayek argued, were now becoming similarly accepted in Britain and the USA. On its publication in 1944, "The Road to Serfdom" caused a sensation. Its publishers could not keep up with demand, owing to wartime paper rationing. Then, in April 1945, Reader's Digest published a condensed version of the book and Hayek's work found a mass audience. This condensed edition was republished for the first time by the IEA in 1999. Since then it has been frequently reprinted and the electronic version has been downloaded over 100,000 times. There is an enduring demand for Hayek's relevant and accessible message. "The Road to Serfdom" is republished in this impression with "The Intellectuals and Socialism," originally published in 1949, in which Hayek explained the appeal of socialist ideas to intellectuals – the "second-hand dealers in ideas." Intellectuals, Hayek argued, are attracted to socialism because it involves the rational application of the intellect to the organisation of society, while its utopianism captures their imagination and satisfies their desire to make the world submit to their own design.
在《通往奴役之路》一书中,f·a·哈耶克阐述了试图将战时经济和社会计划的原则应用于和平时期的问题对自由构成的危险。哈耶克认为,纳粹主义的兴起并不是因为德国人性格上的失败,而是因为在战争爆发前的几十年里,社会主义思想在德国得到了普遍认可。哈耶克认为,这些观点现在在英国和美国也同样被接受。1944年出版的《通往奴役之路》引起了轰动。由于战时纸张配给,其出版商无法满足需求。1945年4月,《读者文摘》出版了这本书的精简版,哈耶克的作品找到了大批读者。这一浓缩版于1999年由国际能源署首次再版。从那时起,它经常被重印,电子版本已被下载超过10万次。人们对哈耶克的相关和通俗易懂的信息有着持久的需求。《通往农奴制之路》与《知识分子与社会主义》(原出版于1949年)以这种印象重印,哈耶克在《知识分子与社会主义》中解释了社会主义思想对知识分子——“思想的二手交易商”——的吸引力。哈耶克认为,知识分子之所以被社会主义所吸引,是因为社会主义将智力合理地应用于社会组织,而社会主义的乌托邦主义抓住了他们的想象力,满足了他们让世界屈从于自己设计的愿望。
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引用次数: 27
Impact of Sample Size on the Distribution of Stock Returns - an Investigation of Nifty & Sensex 样本大小对股票收益分布的影响——对Nifty & Sensex的调查
Pub Date : 2006-01-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.877068
G. Agrawal
The purpose of the study is to test the impact of the sample size on the distributional characteristic of the stock returns of Nifty & Sensex. Many statistical tools used by the financial analyst and academician for their analysis and research carried out under the assumption that stock returns are normally distributed for all kinds of sample size. Failure of the underlying assumption of normality can mislead the inferences. The study shows that sample size can distort the normality assumption of the stock returns. Based on statistical analysis and normality test, namely, Kolmogorov Smirnov (K-S), Anderson Darling (A-D), Jarque-Bera (J-B) results show that large sample size daily stock returns does not follow the normal distribution while small sample size monthly stock returns follow the normal distribution.
本研究的目的是检验样本量对Nifty & Sensex股票收益分布特征的影响。金融分析师和学者在分析和研究中使用的许多统计工具都是在假设股票收益对各种样本量都是正态分布的情况下进行的。基本正态假设的失败可能会误导推论。研究表明,样本量会扭曲股票收益的正态性假设。基于统计分析和正态性检验,即Kolmogorov Smirnov (K-S)、Anderson Darling (A-D)、Jarque-Bera (J-B)的结果表明,大样本量的股票日收益不服从正态分布,而小样本量的股票月收益服从正态分布。
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引用次数: 6
Exploring Human Behaviour and Learning in Experiment Cournot Settings 在古诺实验环境中探索人类行为和学习
Pub Date : 2006-01-24 DOI: 10.1400/23800
P. Lupi, Patrizia Sbriglia
The objective in this paperis to analyse the effect of a reduction in working time duration in a trade union model where Capital Operating Time occurs.
本文的目的是分析在资本运营时间发生的工会模型中减少工作时间持续时间的影响。
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引用次数: 4
Investigating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Relation in International Stock Markets with the Component GARCH Model 利用分量 GARCH 模型研究国际股票市场的跨期风险收益关系
Pub Date : 2006-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.878685
Hui Guo, Christopher J. Neely
We revisit the risk-return relation using the component GARCH model and international daily MSCI stock market data. In contrast with the previous evidence obtained from weekly and monthly data, daily data show that the relation is positive in almost all markets and often statistically significant. Likelihood ratio tests reject the standard GARCH model in favor of the component GARCH model, which strengthens the evidence for a positive risk-return tradeoff. Consistent with U.S. evidence, the long-run component of volatility is a more important determinant of the conditional equity premium than the short-run component for most international markets.
我们使用 GARCH 组成模型和国际摩根斯坦利资本国际公司(MSCI)股市每日数据重新研究了风险收益关系。与之前通过周度和月度数据获得的证据不同,日度数据显示,几乎所有市场的风险收益关系都是正的,而且往往在统计意义上是显著的。似然比检验否定了标准 GARCH 模型,而采用了成分 GARCH 模型,这加强了风险收益权衡为正的证据。与美国的证据一致,在大多数国际市场上,波动率的长期部分比短期部分对条件股票溢价的决定作用更大。
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引用次数: 90
期刊
Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal
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