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The Role of Price and Cost Competitiveness in Apparel Exports, Post-Mfa: A Review 价格和成本竞争力在服装出口中的作用,后mfa:述评
Pub Date : 2005-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.870336
M. Tewari
Global outsourcing, technical change, and falling barriers to trade worldwide have transformed the structure of production and global competition in the textile and apparel industry. This sector has experienced intense fragmentation in the last two decades,much of which was driven by the Multifibre Arrangement (MFA). This review shows that post-MFA, firms today face altered conditions of competition that are pushing them to compete on the basis of factors other than price and cost competitiveness. The paper also argues that the attribution of China’s remarkable export performance in textiles and apparel to its low unit costs and large scales of production is, in part, a misreading of the China story.
全球外包、技术变革和全球贸易壁垒的降低改变了纺织服装行业的生产结构和全球竞争。在过去的二十年中,该行业经历了激烈的分裂,其中大部分是由多光纤协议(MFA)推动的。这一审查表明,在mfa之后,今天的公司面临着改变的竞争条件,这促使他们在价格和成本竞争力以外的因素上竞争。本文还认为,将中国纺织品和服装的显著出口业绩归因于其单位成本低和生产规模大,在一定程度上是对中国故事的误读。
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引用次数: 13
Why is the Timing of School Tracking so Heterogeneous? 为什么学校跟踪的时间如此不同?
Pub Date : 2005-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.866849
Kenn Ariga, G. Brunello, Roki Iwahashi, L. Rocco
Secondary schools in the developed world differ in the degree of differentiation and in the first age of selection of pupils into different tracks. In this paper, we account for the heterogeneity of tracking time with a simple stochastic model which conjugates the returns from specialization with the costs of early selection. We calibrate the model for 20 countries – including most of Europe, the US and Japan – and show that the model performs rather well in replicating the observed heterogeneity, with the remarkable exception of Germany.
发达国家的中学在分化程度上存在差异,并在第一年龄阶段将学生选入不同的轨道。在本文中,我们用一个简单的随机模型来解释跟踪时间的异质性,该模型将专业化的收益与早期选择的成本结合起来。我们对20个国家(包括欧洲、美国和日本的大部分国家)的模型进行了校准,结果表明,除了德国之外,该模型在复制观察到的异质性方面表现得相当好。
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引用次数: 22
Learning to Collude: An Experiment in Convergence and Equilibrium Selection in Oligopoly 学习串通:寡头垄断的收敛与均衡选择实验
Pub Date : 2005-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.877231
Huw Dixon, Patrizia Sbriglia, Ernesto Somma
The paper considers a simple oligopoly model where firms know their own and the average pay-off in the industry. Firms choose decision rules for trading. The theory predicts that there are three types of Nash equilibria in this game (collusive, Cournot and Stackelberg). Our experiments test the selection process. We find that there is clear evidence of convergence to an equilibrium, and whilst both Cournot and collusive outcomes were selected, the collusive equilibrium is more common. The experimental results also give insights into the process of individual learning, confirming that subjects follow aspiration rules rather than reinforcement rules.
本文考虑了一个简单的寡头垄断模型,在这个模型中,企业知道自己在行业中的平均收益。公司为交易选择决策规则。该理论预测在这个博弈中有三种纳什均衡(共谋均衡、古诺均衡和斯塔克尔伯格均衡)。我们的实验测试了选择过程。我们发现有明确的证据表明趋同于均衡,虽然古诺和串通结果都被选择,但串通均衡更常见。实验结果也为个体学习过程提供了见解,证实了受试者遵循愿望规则而不是强化规则。
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引用次数: 11
Grameen Bank Ii: A Possible Analysis with a Relational Perspective (Grameen Bank Ii: Una Possibile Analisi in Prospettiva Relazionale) 格莱珉银行Ii:关系视角下的可能性分析(格莱珉银行Ii:关系前景下的可能性分析)
Pub Date : 2005-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.897493
T. Reggiani
After 25 years of effective work against the poverty, "the bank of poors", founded by Muhammd Yunus, has undertaken a new action to the innovation of the practical of microcredit, therefore to render it relationally still fecund and - I think - valuing. In this written, we will pass in review the main innovations - regarding the Grameen Classic System (GCS the original and traditional system of microcredit proposed) - concerning the products and the operating organization, in order to pass to an accurate examination of the implications that this evolution involves to an exquisitely relational level between the agents been involved, developing dynamics and nexuses that emerges inside of the relationship between the single person and the group and viceversa.
经过25年卓有成效的扶贫工作,穆罕默德·尤努斯(muhammad Yunus)创立的“穷人银行”(bank of穷人)采取了一项新的行动,对小额信贷的实践进行了创新,从而使其相对而言仍然富有成效,而且——我认为——有价值。在这篇文章中,我们将回顾关于格莱珉经典系统(GCS,最初和传统的小额信贷系统)的主要创新——关于产品和运营组织,以便准确地检查这种演变所涉及的代理人之间微妙的关系水平的影响。发展个人和群体之间关系的动态和联系,反之亦然。
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引用次数: 1
Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Brazil 衡量巴西的货币政策立场
Pub Date : 2005-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.867046
B. Vasquez, E. Lima, A. Maka, Mario Jorge Cardoso Mendonca
In this article we use the theory of conditional forecasts to develop a new Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) for Brazil and compare it to the ones constructed using the methodologies suggested by Bernanke and Mihov (1998) and Batini and Turnbull (2002). We use Sims and Zha (1999) and Waggoner and Zha (1999) approaches to develop and compute Bayesian error bands for the MCIs. The new indicator we develop is called the Conditional Monetary Conditions Index (CMCI) and is constructed using, alternatively, Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) and Forward-Looking (FL) models. The CMCI is the forecasted output gap, conditioned on observed values of the nominal interest rate (the Selic rate) and of the real exchange rate. We show that the CMCI, when compared to the MCI developed by Batini and Turnbull (2002), is a better measure of monetary policy stance because it takes into account the endogeneity of variables involved in the analysis. The CMCI and the Bernanke and Mihov MCI (BMCI), despite conceptual differences, show similarities in their chronology of the stance of monetary policy in Brazil. The CMCI is a smoother version of the BMCI, possibly because the impact of changes in the observed values of the Selic rate is partially compensated by changes in the value of the real exchange rate. The Brazilian monetary policy, in the 2000:9- 2005:4 period and according to the last two indicators, has been expansionary near election months. Neste artigo utiliza-se a teoria das previsoes condicionais para o desenvolvimento de um novo Indice de Condicoes Monetarias [Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)] para o Brasil, comparando-o com os indices obtidos seguindo as metodologias sugeridas por Bernanke e Mihov (1998) e Batini e Turnbull (2002). Adicionalmente, desenvolvem-se e calculam-se intervalos de confianca bayesianos para os MCIs, empregando-se a abordagem proposta por Sims e Zha (1999) e Waggoner e Zha (1999). O novo indicador desenvolvido e chamado de Indice de Condicoes Monetarias Condicional [Conditional Monetary Conditionals Index (CMCI)], e e construido utilizando-se alternativamente os modelos de Auto-regressao Vetorial Estrutural [Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) e Antecipativo [Forward-Looking (FL). O CMCI e a previsao do hiato do produto, condicionada aos valores observados da taxa de juros nominal (taxa Selic) e da taxa de câmbio real. Mostra-se que o CMCI, comparado ao MCI desenvolvido por Batini e Turnbull (2002), e um melhor indicador do estado da politica monetaria porque leva em consideracao a endogeneidade das variaveis envolvidas na analise. O CMCI e o MCI Bernanke-Mihov (BMCI), apesar das diferencas conceituais, estabelecem uma cronologia semelhante para o estado da politica monetaria no Brasil. O CMCI e uma versao suavizada do BMCI, provavelmente porque o impacto de mudancas nos valores observados da taxa Selic e parcialmente compensado por mudancas no valor da taxa de câmbio real. De acordo com o CMCI e o BMCI, no periodo entre
在本文中,我们使用条件预测理论为巴西开发了一个新的货币条件指数(MCI),并将其与使用Bernanke和Mihov(1998)以及Batini和Turnbull(2002)建议的方法构建的指数进行比较。我们使用Sims和Zha(1999)以及Waggoner和Zha(1999)的方法来开发和计算MCIs的贝叶斯误差带。我们开发的新指标被称为条件货币条件指数(CMCI),并使用结构向量自回归(SVARs)和前瞻性(FL)模型构建。CMCI是预测的产出缺口,以观察到的名义利率(Selic rate)和实际汇率为条件。我们表明,与巴蒂尼和特恩布尔(2002)开发的MCI相比,CMCI是货币政策立场的更好衡量标准,因为它考虑了分析中涉及的变量的内生性。CMCI和伯南克和米霍夫MCI (BMCI),尽管在概念上有所不同,但在巴西货币政策立场的时序上显示出相似之处。CMCI是BMCI的一个平滑版本,可能是因为Selic汇率的观测值变化的影响部分地被实际汇率的变化所补偿。在2000年9月至2005年4月期间,以及根据最后两个指标,巴西的货币政策在临近大选的月份一直是扩张性的。Neste artigo utilizas -se a teoria as previses Conditions para or desenvolvimento de um novo Index de Condicoes Monetarias[货币条件指数(Monetary Conditions Index, MCI)] para o brazil, comcomo Index obtidos segindo作为方法参考,如por Bernanke e Mihov(1998)和Batini e Turnbull(2002)。附加的、非卷积的、可计算的、可识别的贝叶斯区间的、可识别的、可识别的、可识别的建议(参见Sims e Zha(1999)和Waggoner e Zha(1999))。新指标desenvolvido(条件指数、条件货币条件指数、条件货币条件指数)、结构向量自回归(结构向量自回归)和前瞻性预测(FL)模型的构建、利用和替代。CMCI是一种对产品、条件和价值进行预估的方法,对标称分类系统(分类系统Selic)和实际分类系统(分类系统CMCI)进行观察。Mostra-se que of CMCI,与MCI desenvolvido (Batini e Turnbull, 2002)的比较,我们的主要指标是建立在政治货币政策水平的基础上,考虑到不同因素的内因性,并对其进行了分析。CMCI和贝南克-米霍夫(BMCI Bernanke-Mihov, BMCI)在概念上的差异,建立了一种似乎与巴西政治货币政策相关的政策体系。因此,CMCI e uma versao suavizada do BMCI,即对土壤质量的影响的实证研究,特别是对土壤质量的补偿,以及对土壤质量的评价。从2000年到2005年3月,巴西的政治货币政策一直是扩张主义,而不是经济扩张主义。
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引用次数: 15
Growing Together or Growing Apart? A Village Level Study of the Impact of the Doha Round on Rural China 共同成长还是分开成长?多哈回合对中国农村影响的村级研究
Pub Date : 2005-08-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-3696
M. Kuiper, F. van Tongeren
Most studies of the opening of the Chinese economy focus at the national level. The few existing disaggregated analyses are limited to analyzing changes in agricultural production. The authors use an innovative village equilibrium model that accounts for nonseparability of household production and consumption decisions. This allows them to analyze the impact of trade liberalization on household production, consumption, and off-farm employment, as well as the interactions among these three aspects of household decisions. They use the village model to analyze the impact of price changes and labor demand, the two major pathways through which international trade affects households. Analyzing the impact of trade liberalization for one village in the Jiangxi province of China, the authors find changes in relative prices and outside village employment to have opposite impacts on household decisions. At the household level the impact of price changes dominates the employment impacts. Comparing full trade liberalization and the more limited Doha scenario, reactions are more modest in the latter case for most households, but the response is nonlinear to increasing depth of trade reforms. This is explained by household-specific transaction (shadow) prices in combination with endogenous choices to participate in the output markets. Rising income inequalities are a growing concern in China. Whether trade liberalization allows incomes to grow together or to grow apart depends on whether one accounts for the reduction in consumption demand when household members migrate. Assessing the net effect on the within-village income distribution, the authors find that poorer households that own draught power gain most from trade liberalization. The households that have to rely on the use of own labor for farm activities and are not endowed with traction power, nor with a link to employment opportunities in the prospering coastal regions, have fewer opportunities for adjustment.
对中国经济开放的研究大多集中在国家层面。现有的为数不多的分类分析仅限于分析农业生产的变化。作者使用了一个创新的村庄均衡模型,该模型考虑了家庭生产和消费决策的不可分离性。这使他们能够分析贸易自由化对家庭生产、消费和非农就业的影响,以及家庭决策这三个方面之间的相互作用。他们使用村庄模型来分析价格变化和劳动力需求的影响,这是国际贸易影响家庭的两个主要途径。分析了贸易自由化对中国江西省一个村庄的影响,作者发现相对价格和村外就业的变化对家庭决策产生了相反的影响。在家庭层面上,价格变化的影响主导了就业影响。比较全面贸易自由化和更有限的多哈回合情景,大多数家庭对后者的反应更为温和,但对贸易改革深度的增加的反应是非线性的。这可以通过家庭特定交易(影子)价格与参与产出市场的内生选择相结合来解释。在中国,日益加剧的收入不平等日益令人担忧。贸易自由化是否允许收入共同增长或分开增长取决于是否考虑到家庭成员迁移时消费需求的减少。在评估对村内收入分配的净影响时,作者发现,拥有干旱能力的较贫困家庭从贸易自由化中获益最多。在繁荣的沿海地区,那些不得不依靠自己的劳动力从事农业活动,没有被赋予牵引力,也没有就业机会的家庭,调整的机会更少。
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引用次数: 29
Fiscal Federalism in Switzerland: Relevant Issues for Transition Economies in Central and Eastern Europe 瑞士财政联邦制:中欧和东欧转型经济体的相关问题
Pub Date : 2005-07-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-3655
B. Dafflon, K. Toth
Its highly fragmented structure of local governments and serious horizontal fiscal imbalances make Switzerland a surprisingly powerful model for Eastern European countries that are currently facing the challenge of fiscal decentralization. In spite of the substantial differences in the tradition and current practice of intergovernmental fiscal relations, transition economies may learn valuable lessons from the Swiss case in the fields of direct democracy, horizontal cooperation, expenditure and revenue assignment, and fiscal discipline. Among other conclusions, the authors suggest that subnational authorities can effectively fend off recentralization attempts of the central government if they engage in spontaneous cooperation to enhance the efficiency of public service provision. Together with an adequate fiscal equalization scheme, interjurisdictional cooperation also permits the reconciliation of the objective of an increasing devolution of powers with the existing regional disparities. The authors also show that the principle of subsidiarity can best be safeguarded by anchoring the expenditure and revenue powers of subnational governments in the constitution or in a similarly strong law. With regard to fiscal discipline, the combination of a"golden rule"with direct democratic instruments of budget control is proven to be successful in enhancing the accountability of local politicians toward their constituencies.
其高度分散的地方政府结构和严重的横向财政失衡使瑞士成为目前面临财政分权挑战的东欧国家的一个令人惊讶的强大模式。尽管政府间财政关系的传统和现行做法有很大的不同,但转型期经济体可以从瑞士在直接民主、横向合作、支出和收入分配以及财政纪律等领域吸取宝贵的教训。在其他结论中,作者建议,如果地方政府参与自发合作以提高公共服务提供的效率,它们可以有效地抵御中央政府的再集中化尝试。加上适当的财政均衡计划,司法间合作还使权力日益下放的目标与现有的区域差距相协调。作者还表明,通过将地方政府的支出和收入权力固定在宪法或类似的强有力的法律中,辅助原则可以得到最好的保障。关于财政纪律,事实证明,将“黄金法则”与预算控制的直接民主手段相结合,在加强地方政治家对其选民的责任方面是成功的。
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引用次数: 4
Outsourcing of Human Resource Management Services in Greece 希腊人力资源管理服务外包
Pub Date : 2005-06-01 DOI: 10.1108/01437720510609564
E. Galanaki, N. Papalexandris
Purpose: Outsourcing is gaining considerable popularity in the field of business services and management. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the practice of outsourcing human resource management (HRM) functions, such as training, staffing, rewards and restructuring, in Greece. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis draws upon both primary and secondary data. The findings of the 1999 CRANET survey and a study on the companies that offer HRM services in Greece are used to set the frame of analysis. A series of in-depth interviews with HR managers and senior HRM consultants are used to support the quantitative data. Findings: The analysis suggests that the Greek market of HRM services is still at an initial stage of development, with limited credibility, while the customers lack the experience of managing outsourcing relations and are reluctant to establish a partnership- type HRM outsourcing agreement. Considerable differences are identified between the Greek market for HRM services and those of more developed markets. Originality/value: The description of the Greek market of HRM services can be useful to vendors and users of HRM services, as well as researchers dealing with outsourcing in small markets.
目的:外包在商业服务和管理领域越来越受欢迎。本文的目的是说明外包人力资源管理(HRM)功能的做法,如培训,人员配置,奖励和重组,在希腊。设计/方法论/方法:分析利用了主要和次要数据。1999年CRANET调查的结果和对希腊提供人力资源管理服务的公司的研究被用来设置分析框架。通过对人力资源经理和高级人力资源管理顾问的一系列深度访谈来支持定量数据。研究发现:分析表明,希腊人力资源管理服务市场仍处于初级发展阶段,可信度有限,而客户缺乏管理外包关系的经验,不愿意建立伙伴关系型的人力资源管理外包协议。希腊人力资源管理服务市场与那些更发达的市场之间存在相当大的差异。原创性/价值:对希腊人力资源管理服务市场的描述对人力资源管理服务的供应商和用户,以及在小市场中处理外包的研究人员都很有用。
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引用次数: 51
Growth Spillover Effects and Regional Development Patterns: The Case of Chinese Provinces 增长溢出效应与区域发展模式:以中国省区为例
Pub Date : 2005-06-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-3652
Xubei Luo
This paper discusses regional development patterns in China, and examines effective ways of using development aid to attain regional balanced growth through optimizing growth spillover effects. Based on provincial panel data from 1978 to 99, the paper constructs an indicator “neighbor performance” to measure the geographic spillover effects of aggregate growth from and to different provinces according to their relative richness and geographic position. Analysis of a Solow-type growth model suggests that positive spillover effects dominate negative shadow effects at the national level as well as the regional level; and some coastal provinces provide growth pull and growth push forces for their neighbors and serve as locomotives. The results show that the rapid take-off of the coastal provinces has the largest spillover effects on the entire Chinese economy, but at the expense of a widening regional gap. A policy of encouraging the growth of the non-coastal regional hubs would have strong forward and backward linkages with the inland/western regions and thus reduce the regional development gap without sacrificing much aggregate growth. The paper offers support for the policy of developing inland hubs, and argues that directing development aid to Hubei and Sichuan would optimize the growth spillover impacts on inland regions.
本文探讨了中国的区域发展模式,并通过优化增长溢出效应,探讨了利用发展援助实现区域平衡增长的有效途径。基于1978 - 1999年的省际面板数据,本文构建了“邻邦绩效”指标,根据不同省份的相对富裕程度和地理位置,衡量省际间和省际间总量增长的地理溢出效应。对索洛增长模型的分析表明,无论是在国家层面还是在区域层面,积极的溢出效应都大于消极的影子效应;一些沿海省份为周边地区提供了增长的牵引力和推动力,起到了“火车头”的作用。结果表明,沿海省份的快速腾飞对整个中国经济的溢出效应最大,但代价是区域差距的扩大。鼓励非沿海区域中心发展的政策将与内陆/西部地区建立强有力的前后联系,从而在不牺牲太多总体增长的情况下缩小区域发展差距。本文对发展内陆枢纽的政策提供了支持,并认为直接向湖北和四川提供发展援助将优化对内陆地区的增长溢出效应。
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引用次数: 23
Labor Market Trends and Institutions in Belarus 白俄罗斯的劳动力市场趋势和制度
Pub Date : 2005-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.746706
Zuzana Brixiová, V. Volchok
In most countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, the transition to market led to the emergence of a private sector and open unemployment. The Belarusian labor market is characterized by low official unemployment, combined with a low share of the private sector in the aggregate employment. However, the cumulative fall in employment since 1990 has been similar to other transition economies, leading to a sharp reduction of labor force, and the youth unemployment remains high. The mismatch in skills between the unemployed and the vacancies and the geographical mismatch suggest that policies aimed at improving skills and increasing mobility are needed. At the same time, the low vacancy-unemployment ratio calls for policies aimed at encouraging private job creation. An immediate policy concern for the government is to launch a labor market reform that would balance providing adequate protection for workers with the need to design the incentives for the unemployed workers to search for new jobs.
在中欧和东欧以及独立国家联合体的大多数国家,向市场的过渡导致了私营部门和公开失业的出现。白俄罗斯劳动力市场的特点是官方失业率低,私营部门在总就业中所占份额低。然而,自1990年以来,就业的累计下降与其他转型经济体类似,导致劳动力急剧减少,青年失业率仍然很高。失业人员和职位空缺之间的技能不匹配以及地理上的不匹配表明,需要制定旨在提高技能和增加流动性的政策。与此同时,较低的空缺失业率要求出台旨在鼓励私营部门创造就业机会的政策。对政府来说,一个迫在眉睫的政策问题是启动劳动力市场改革,在为工人提供足够的保护与设计激励失业工人寻找新工作的需要之间取得平衡。
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引用次数: 5
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Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal
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