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The Fed Model: The Bad, the Worse, and the Ugly 美联储模式:坏的、更糟的和丑陋的
Pub Date : 2006-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.877245
Javier Estrada
The negative relationship between stock market P/E ratios and government bond yields seems to have become conventional wisdom among practitioners. However, limited empirical evidence and a misleading suggestion that the model originated in the Fed are used to support the model's plausibility. This article argues that the Fed model is flawed from a theoretical standpoint and reports evidence from 20 countries that seriously questions its empirical merits. Despite its widespread use and acceptance, the Fed model is found to be a failure both as a normative and as a positive model of equity pricing.
股市市盈率与政府债券收益率之间的负相关关系似乎已成为从业人员的传统智慧。然而,有限的经验证据和该模型起源于美联储的误导性暗示被用来支持该模型的合理性。本文认为,从理论角度来看,美联储的模式存在缺陷,并报告了来自20个国家的证据,这些证据严重质疑其经验价值。尽管美联储模型被广泛使用和接受,但人们发现,无论是作为一种规范的股票定价模型,还是作为一种积极的股票定价模型,它都是失败的。
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引用次数: 42
To Tell or Not to Tell? Assessing the Practical Effects of Disclosure for Word-of-Mouth Marketing Agents and Their Conversational Partners 说还是不说?评估披露对口碑营销代理人及其对话伙伴的实际影响
Pub Date : 2006-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.877760
W. J. Carl
Increasingly, companies have sought to harness the power of word-of-mouth communication by enlisting consumers to talk about brands, products, and services within their peer networks. Whether those consumers are paid by, or voluntarily affiliate with, a marketing organization, or are part of the company’s existing customer database, ethical concerns about their word-of-mouth practices have been raised by various social critics, especially in terms of whether or not the consumers disclose their participation in the organized program/campaign when talking with others. Further, various marketing agencies have different visions of whether or not disclosure represents an ethical imperative or if it even makes good business sense. To test whether or not disclosing corporate affiliation has any practical business advantages, Northeastern University partnered with BzzAgent, Inc., a leading word-of-mouth marketing organization, to better understand the role of disclosure in everyday and campaign-related word-of-mouth communication episodes. A novel dyadic design was employed to capture multi-party perspectives on the same episodes. Specific questions to which we sought answers included how many people affiliated with the marketing organization actually disclosed their affiliation, how they did so, what information about the marketing organization they shared, and whether or not the disclosure led to differences in the following key outcome measures: the credibility effect of word-of-mouth, as well as inquiry, use, purchase, and pass-along/relay intentions and behaviors. Key findings include: • For approximately 75% of the conversational partners (the people with whom the word-of-mouth marketing agents engaged in word-of-mouth communication) it did not matter that they were talking with someone affiliated with a marketing organization. Instead what mattered was that they trusted the agent was providing an honest opinion, felt the agent had their best interests at heart, and were providing relevant and valuable information. • None of the key outcome metrics (credibility, inquiry, use, purchase, and pass-along/relay) were negatively affected by the agent disclosing their affiliation. In fact, the pass-along/relay rate (the number of people a person told after speaking with a word-of-mouth marketing agent) actually increased when the conversational partner was aware they were talking with a participant in an organized word-of-mouth marketing program. • In over 75% of the cases where a person learned about a brand or product from another source of information (such as a print, radio, TV, or web advertisement), talking with the marketing agent increased the believability of that other source of information. This finding was also unaffected by agent disclosure. • Prior to the enforcement of the word-of-mouth marketing organization's disclosure policy (where agents were required to disclose their affiliation in episodes involving an organized word-of-mouth campai
在实施这一政策时,应结合有关信息披露的实际商业利益的教育和执行程序。·口碑营销组织应特别注意与陌生人和熟人的互动,因为这些关系类型最不可能知道代理商的关系,而且当他们不知道代理商的关系时,也更有可能产生负面情绪。关于披露的政策应超越要求代理商披露从属关系,并应特别考虑明确商业模式的市场研究方面。寻求消费者支持以传播口碑的机构和公司可以根据本报告的调查结果和结论重新审视其业务实践和披露政策。
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引用次数: 11
On the Decomposition of the Gini Coefficient: An Exact Approach, with an Illustration Using Cameroonian Data 关于基尼系数的分解:一种精确的方法,并以喀麦隆数据为例
Pub Date : 2006-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.877147
A. Araar
Decomposing inequality indices across household groups or income sources is useful in estimating the contribution of each component to total inequality. This can help policy makers draw efficient policies to reduce disparities in the distribution of incomes using targeting tools. Decomposing relative inequality indices, such as the Gini coefficient, is not a simple procedure since, in many cases, the functional form of inequality indices is not additively separable in incomes. More importantly, for some of the indices on which this decomposition can be performed, the interpretation of the decomposition components is often not well founded. In this paper, we use the Shapley value as well as analytical approaches to perform the decomposition of the Gini coefficient and generalize it, in some cases, to the decomposition of other inequality indices. For the analytical approach, our aim is to extend the same interpretation, attributed to the Gini coefficient, to that of the contribution components.
分解不同家庭群体或收入来源的不平等指数有助于估计每个组成部分对总不平等的贡献。这可以帮助决策者制定有效的政策,利用目标工具减少收入分配中的差距。分解相对不平等指数,如基尼系数,并不是一个简单的过程,因为在许多情况下,不平等指数的函数形式在收入中不是可加分离的。更重要的是,对于可以执行这种分解的一些索引,分解组件的解释通常没有很好的基础。在本文中,我们使用Shapley值和解析方法对基尼系数进行分解,并在某些情况下将其推广到其他不等式指标的分解中。对于分析方法,我们的目标是将归因于基尼系数的相同解释扩展到贡献成分的解释。
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引用次数: 68
Corruption Reexamined 腐败进行了复查
Pub Date : 2005-12-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.872485
S. Mitra
This paper looks at the validity of a conventional hypothesis about corruption on the basis of new data. The basic import of this hypothesis is that corruption should decline with economic development. The data seem to indicate that important qualifications need to be made about this hypothesis. Moreover, a theory formed on the basis of an empirically proven and theoretically plausible positive association between product variety and economic development and standard demand analysis seems to indicate that the generality of this hypothesis is in considerable doubt.
本文在新数据的基础上考察了一个关于腐败的传统假设的有效性。这一假设的基本含义是,腐败应该随着经济的发展而减少。数据似乎表明,需要对这一假设进行重要的限定。此外,根据经验证明和理论上似是而非的产品种类与经济发展和标准需求分析之间的积极联系而形成的理论似乎表明,这一假设的普遍性值得怀疑。
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引用次数: 1
The Security Council as World Legislator?: Theory, Practice and Consequences of an Expanding World Power 安理会作为世界立法者?一个不断扩张的世界大国的理论、实践和后果
Pub Date : 2005-12-28 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.871758
Axel Marschik
In the 1990s the UN Security Council accreted new functions and responsibilities: to administer territories, establish tribunals to try individuals for war crimes, delineate borders, decide on questions of compensation, and determine juridically-salient facts. This paper considers the relevant resolutions, but argues that until 2001, these activities were linked directly to a territorially-specific international conflict aimed at restoring peace and order. With SC-Resolution 1373(2001) the Security Council created general and abstract obligations in the field of counter-terrorism that, under Chapter VII of the Charter, are immediately binding on all States. While one such legislative act could be considered an aberration, the acceptance of SC-1373 by the states, and the prevailing political dynamic, has prompted the Council to engage in more of this generally-applicable non-localized law-making. Resolution 1540 (2004) on obligations of all states concerning weapons of mass destruction, has provoked much more intense reactions. This paper analyzes the implications of these two resolutions, and argues that continuation of this trend may have significant consequences for the creation of international law. Traditionally, states have the freedom to choose whether they wish to be bound by a norm: they can choose not to sign treaties or they can persistently object to the formation of custom. The creation of international law also relies on the principle of legal equality of the states creating the norm. General legislation by the Council via Chapter VII of the Charter supersedes both these principles. This paper assesses advantages and disadvantages of such lawmaking by the Council as well as possible remedies for potential problems.
在20世纪90年代,联合国安理会增加了新的职能和责任:管理领土,建立法庭审判犯有战争罪的个人,划定边界,决定赔偿问题,并确定具有重要司法意义的事实。本文审议了有关决议,但认为,直到2001年,这些活动都与旨在恢复和平与秩序的特定领土的国际冲突直接相关。安理会第1373(2001)号决议规定了在反恐领域的一般和抽象义务,根据《宪章》第七章,这些义务对所有国家立即具有约束力。虽然这样的立法行为可能被认为是一种失常,但各国对SC-1373的接受,以及当前的政治动态,促使安理会更多地参与这种普遍适用的非地方性立法。关于所有国家在大规模杀伤性武器问题上的义务的第1540(2004)号决议引起了更为激烈的反应。本文分析了这两项决议的影响,并认为这种趋势的继续可能对国际法的建立产生重大影响。传统上,国家有选择是否愿意受规范约束的自由:它们可以选择不签署条约,也可以坚持反对习惯的形成。国际法的创建也依赖于制定规范的国家法律平等的原则。安理会通过《宪章》第七章制定的一般立法取代了这两项原则。本文评估了立法会立法的利弊,以及对潜在问题可能采取的补救措施。
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引用次数: 5
Sex Differences in Intellectual Performance: Analysis of a Large Cohort of Competitive Chess Players 智力表现的性别差异:对一大群国际象棋选手的分析
Pub Date : 2005-12-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.871186
C. Chabris, M. Glickman
Only 1% of the world's chess grandmasters are women. This underrepresentation is unlikely to be caused by discrimination, since chess ratings objectively reflect competitive results. Using data on the ratings of 250,000 tournament players over 13 years, we investigate several potential explanations for the male domination of elite chess. We find that: (1) the ratings of men are higher on average than those of women, but no more variable; (2) matched boys and girls improve and drop out at equal rates, but boys begin chess competition in greater numbers and at higher performance levels than girls; (3) in locales where at least 50% of the new young players are girls, their initial ratings are not lower than those of boys. We conclude that the greater number of men at the highest levels in chess can be explained by the greater number of boys who enter chess at the lowest levels.
世界上只有1%的国际象棋大师是女性。这种代表性不足不太可能是由歧视造成的,因为国际象棋评分客观地反映了比赛结果。利用13年来25万名比赛选手的评分数据,我们调查了男性在精英国际象棋中占主导地位的几种潜在解释。我们发现:(1)男性的平均评分高于女性,但差异不大;(2)匹配的男孩和女孩的进步和退出率相同,但男孩开始下棋的人数和表现水平都高于女孩;(3)在至少50%的新年轻玩家是女孩的地区,她们的初始评分不低于男孩。我们得出的结论是,在国际象棋的最高水平上,有更多的男性可以用更多的男孩进入最低水平来解释。
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引用次数: 26
Violent Groups and Police Tactics: Should Tear Gas Make Crime Preventers Cry? 暴力团体和警察策略:催泪瓦斯应该让预防犯罪的人哭泣吗?
Pub Date : 2005-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.876560
Panu Poutvaara, Mikael Priks
Democratic societies are challenged by various violent and organized groups, be they terrorists, gangs or organized hooligans. In exchange for offering an identity, leaders in such groups typically require members to be violent. We introduce a simple model to capture these stylized facts, and then study the effects of policing. We find that an increase in the marginal cost of violence always reduces violence, while increasing the indiscriminate fixed cost may backfire and result in smaller and more violent groups.
民主社会受到各种暴力和有组织团体的挑战,这些团体可能是恐怖分子、帮派或有组织的流氓。作为提供身份的交换,这类组织的领导人通常要求成员具有暴力倾向。我们引入了一个简单的模型来捕捉这些程式化的事实,然后研究警务的效果。我们发现,增加暴力的边际成本总是会减少暴力,而增加不加区分的固定成本可能适得其反,导致更小、更暴力的群体。
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引用次数: 70
Thinking Ahead: The Decision Problem 提前思考:决策问题
Pub Date : 2005-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.1467-937X.2009.00554.X
P. Bolton, Antoine Faure-Grimaud
We propose a model of costly decision making based on time-costs of deliberating current and future decisions. We model an individual decision-maker's thinking process as a thought-experiment that takes time, and lets the decision maker 'think ahead' about future decision problems in yet unrealized states of nature. By formulating an intertemporal, state-contingent, planning problem which may involve costly deliberation in every state of nature, and by letting the decision maker deliberate ahead of the realization of a state, we attempt to capture the basic observation that individuals generally do not think through a complete action plan. Instead, individuals prioritize their thinking and leave deliberations on less important decisions to the time or event when they arise. Copyright 2009, Wiley-Blackwell.
我们提出了一个基于考虑当前和未来决策的时间成本的昂贵决策模型。我们将单个决策者的思维过程建模为需要时间的思维实验,并让决策者在尚未实现的自然状态下“提前思考”未来的决策问题。通过制定一个跨期的、状态偶然的、计划问题(在每一种自然状态下都可能涉及昂贵的审议),并通过让决策者在状态实现之前进行审议,我们试图捕捉到这样一个基本观察,即个人通常不会考虑一个完整的行动计划。相反,人们会优先考虑自己的想法,把不太重要的决定留给需要考虑的时间或事件。Wiley-Blackwell版权所有。
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引用次数: 56
A Note on the Appropriate Measure of Tax Burden on Foreign Direct Investment to the Ceecs 关于对中东欧国家外国直接投资适当减负的说明
Pub Date : 2005-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.875525
C. Bellak, Markus Leibrecht
In this note we show that tax-rate elasticities of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Central and East European Countries (CEECs) derived from statutory corporate income tax rates (STRs) are likely to be flawed. From a conceptual point of view STRs are problematic as they neither capture tax base effects, nor effects of the home country, the international or the supranational tax laws on the corporate tax burden. Concerning FDI, from an empirical point of view STRs are questionable as their behavior over time and between country-pairs may be very different from that of the conceptually superior bilateral corporate effective average tax rates (BCEATRs). We compare the variability of STRs and BCEATRs of seven major home countries of FDI in eight major CEEC host countries during the period 1995-2005 via Levene-tests, using a unique dataset. Results confirm that using STRs instead of BCEATRs in empirical investigations of FDI is likely to result in too low tax-rate elasticities.
在本文中,我们表明外国直接投资(FDI)对中欧和东欧国家(CEECs)的税率弹性来源于法定企业所得税率(str)可能存在缺陷。从概念上看,str是有问题的,因为它们既没有捕捉到税基效应,也没有捕捉到母国、国际或超国家税法对公司税负的影响。关于外国直接投资,从经验的角度来看,str值得怀疑,因为它们随时间和国家对之间的行为可能与概念上优越的双边公司有效平均税率(bceatr)非常不同。我们使用一个独特的数据集,通过levene检验,比较了1995-2005年期间中东欧8个主要东道国的7个主要外国直接投资母国的str和bceatr的变动性。结果证实,在FDI实证调查中使用str而不是bceatr可能会导致税率弹性过低。
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引用次数: 2
The Impact of Selected Corporate Governance Programmes to Auditor Independence: Some Evidence from Malaysia 选定的公司治理方案对审计师独立性的影响:来自马来西亚的一些证据
Pub Date : 2005-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.871139
Zulkarnain Muhamad Sori, Yusuf Karbhari
Corporate governance is essential for establishing an attractive investment climate characterised by competitive companies and an efficient capital market. This paper examines the impact of four corporate governance programmes to perceived auditor independence from the perspective of Malaysian auditors, loan officers and senior managers of public listed companies. Questionnaire and interview surveys were employed to seek the respondent's perceptions on these issues. It is found that auditor independence would be safeguarded on the following issues: the compliance with the Financial Reporting Standards (FRS) of the Malaysian Accounting Standard Board (MASB) was legally mandated, the establishment of the Malaysian Institute of Corporate Governance (MICG), the establishment of the Minority Shareholders Watchdog Group (MSWG) and the implementation of mandatory director accreditation training programme (MDATP).
公司治理对于建立有吸引力的投资环境至关重要,其特点是公司具有竞争力,资本市场效率高。本文从马来西亚审计师、贷款官员和上市公司高级管理人员的角度考察了四个公司治理计划对审计师独立性的影响。问卷调查和访谈调查被用来寻求受访者对这些问题的看法。研究发现,审计师的独立性将在以下问题上得到保障:遵守马来西亚会计准则委员会(MASB)的财务报告准则(FRS)是法律规定的,马来西亚公司治理研究所(MICG)的成立,少数股东监督小组(MSWG)的成立以及强制性董事认证培训计划(MDATP)的实施。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal
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