This examination of the role and potential for replication in economics points out the paucity of both pure replication -- checking on others' published papers using their data -- and scientific replication -- using data representing different populations in one's own work or in a Comment. Several controversies in empirical economics illustrate how and how not to behave when replicating others' work. The incentives for replication facing editors, authors and potential replicators are examined. Recognising these incentives, I advance proposals aimed at journal editors that will increase the supply of replication studies, and I propose a way of generating more scientific replication that will make empirical economic research more credible.
{"title":"Replication in Economics","authors":"D. Hamermesh","doi":"10.3386/W13026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W13026","url":null,"abstract":"This examination of the role and potential for replication in economics points out the paucity of both pure replication -- checking on others' published papers using their data -- and scientific replication -- using data representing different populations in one's own work or in a Comment. Several controversies in empirical economics illustrate how and how not to behave when replicating others' work. The incentives for replication facing editors, authors and potential replicators are examined. Recognising these incentives, I advance proposals aimed at journal editors that will increase the supply of replication studies, and I propose a way of generating more scientific replication that will make empirical economic research more credible.","PeriodicalId":163698,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129166582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-04-01DOI: 10.5089/9781451866636.001.A001
Sharmini Coorey, J. Clausen, Norbert Funke, Sónia Muñoz, Bakar Ould-Abdallah
Zimbabwe has currently the highest rate of inflation in the world (an annual rate of 1,730 percent in February, 2007). The high rates of inflation have contributed to the contraction of the economy, which has declined by about 30 percent since 1999. This paper examines the stabilization experience of countries that experienced similar rates of inflation (above 1,000 percent) during 1980-2005 and draws lessons for Zimbabwe. First, with appropriate stabilization policies, the fall in inflation can be very rapid and output normally recovers within the first year or two of stabilization. Second, while reforms need to be comprehensive, a strong upfront fiscal consolidation, including elimination of quasi-fiscal activities, is a critical element of a successful stabilization program. Third, although stabilization itself can be done without significant external financing in the first year, most countries benefited from external policy advice and technical support, including from the IMF, during stabilization and from an increase in financial assistance in subsequent years.
{"title":"Lessons from High Inflation Epidsodes for Stabilizing the Economy in Zimbabwe","authors":"Sharmini Coorey, J. Clausen, Norbert Funke, Sónia Muñoz, Bakar Ould-Abdallah","doi":"10.5089/9781451866636.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451866636.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"Zimbabwe has currently the highest rate of inflation in the world (an annual rate of 1,730 percent in February, 2007). The high rates of inflation have contributed to the contraction of the economy, which has declined by about 30 percent since 1999. This paper examines the stabilization experience of countries that experienced similar rates of inflation (above 1,000 percent) during 1980-2005 and draws lessons for Zimbabwe. First, with appropriate stabilization policies, the fall in inflation can be very rapid and output normally recovers within the first year or two of stabilization. Second, while reforms need to be comprehensive, a strong upfront fiscal consolidation, including elimination of quasi-fiscal activities, is a critical element of a successful stabilization program. Third, although stabilization itself can be done without significant external financing in the first year, most countries benefited from external policy advice and technical support, including from the IMF, during stabilization and from an increase in financial assistance in subsequent years.","PeriodicalId":163698,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121687649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The experience of countries adjusting in the wake of the global crisis of 1997-2000 has awakened many debates related to the political economy and social costs of adjustment. Amongst these, the experience of Russia is particularly controversial, both because of the great severity of the shock experienced by a large number of Russians during the process of perestroika, and because of the political consequences, which in many provinces have involved street protests and demonstrations and in some, also violence and demands for secession (Giuliano 2006). These political consequences are relevant to the general question of the political feasibility of adjustment in the circumstances of the present decade, which is examined in several papers within our research project (e.g. Mosley 2007a, 2007b). In this paper, we examine within this context political participation and wage inequality during the 1998 financial crisis in Russia. We use two household survey data sets. The VTsIOM household survey dataset, conducted in 1998 and 1999, was used to analyze individuals’ response patters to escalating economic hardship. Data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) was employed in our analysis of the welfare impacts of the crisis. We address two key questions. Firstly, we attempt to identify major factors behind individuals’ propensity to take part in a political protest. In particular, we look at what determines individual support for reform and whether individual propensities change with the targeted audience. Secondly, we attempt to determine who are the winners and losers from the crisis, in the spirit of the earlier analysis of Brainerd(1998).In particular, we analyse whether wage inequality widened during the crisis and whether wage discrimination worsened. These questions are of interest for several reasons. Firstly, the pace and extent of the crisis had a dramatic impact on Russia’s economy which, in turn, may have influenced political mobilization motivated by claims for policy reversals. Secondly, if financial crisis generated wage inequality, it is important to identify the extent, pattern, and nature of the wage inequality for effective policy formulation.
{"title":"Economic Crisis and Political Participation in a Transitional Economy: Evidence from Russia","authors":"Altay Mussurov, P. Mosley","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1026255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1026255","url":null,"abstract":"The experience of countries adjusting in the wake of the global crisis of 1997-2000 has awakened many debates related to the political economy and social costs of adjustment. Amongst these, the experience of Russia is particularly controversial, both because of the great severity of the shock experienced by a large number of Russians during the process of perestroika, and because of the political consequences, which in many provinces have involved street protests and demonstrations and in some, also violence and demands for secession (Giuliano 2006). These political consequences are relevant to the general question of the political feasibility of adjustment in the circumstances of the present decade, which is examined in several papers within our research project (e.g. Mosley 2007a, 2007b). In this paper, we examine within this context political participation and wage inequality during the 1998 financial crisis in Russia. We use two household survey data sets. The VTsIOM household survey dataset, conducted in 1998 and 1999, was used to analyze individuals’ response patters to escalating economic hardship. Data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) was employed in our analysis of the welfare impacts of the crisis. We address two key questions. Firstly, we attempt to identify major factors behind individuals’ propensity to take part in a political protest. In particular, we look at what determines individual support for reform and whether individual propensities change with the targeted audience. Secondly, we attempt to determine who are the winners and losers from the crisis, in the spirit of the earlier analysis of Brainerd(1998).In particular, we analyse whether wage inequality widened during the crisis and whether wage discrimination worsened. These questions are of interest for several reasons. Firstly, the pace and extent of the crisis had a dramatic impact on Russia’s economy which, in turn, may have influenced political mobilization motivated by claims for policy reversals. Secondly, if financial crisis generated wage inequality, it is important to identify the extent, pattern, and nature of the wage inequality for effective policy formulation.","PeriodicalId":163698,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114064201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-04-01DOI: 10.5089/9781451866575.001
Daehaeng Kim, Chul-In Lee
Using the between-sector variation in income as a new measure of economic uncertainty, this paper proposes simple models and supportive empirical evidence for the causal relations between economic uncertainty and government size in the open economy setting. Key empirical findings include: (1) a larger government reduces economic uncertainty, and, at the same time, (2) an economy facing higher uncertainty has a larger government. However, (3) the government tends to resort to redistributive policies to reduce the uncertainty, while (4) government direct spending is also an effective option for the purpose. The study also finds that (5) cross-sectional measure of economic uncertainty tends to rise when a country becomes more open to international trade.
{"title":"Government Size and Intersectoral Income Fluctuation: An International Panel Analysis","authors":"Daehaeng Kim, Chul-In Lee","doi":"10.5089/9781451866575.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451866575.001","url":null,"abstract":"Using the between-sector variation in income as a new measure of economic uncertainty, this paper proposes simple models and supportive empirical evidence for the causal relations between economic uncertainty and government size in the open economy setting. Key empirical findings include: (1) a larger government reduces economic uncertainty, and, at the same time, (2) an economy facing higher uncertainty has a larger government. However, (3) the government tends to resort to redistributive policies to reduce the uncertainty, while (4) government direct spending is also an effective option for the purpose. The study also finds that (5) cross-sectional measure of economic uncertainty tends to rise when a country becomes more open to international trade.","PeriodicalId":163698,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133920514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-03-01DOI: 10.5089/9781451866292.001.A001
Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, S. Schadler
In the past several years, the ten new Central and Eastern European members of the European Union have enjoyed rapid growth but frequently alongside growing external imbalances. Economists have pointed to rising vulnerabilities, but markets compressed sovereign bond yields. This paper examines the evidence from the perspective of economists' vulnerability analysis and markets' pricing of sovereign bonds. It finds that spread are lower than can be explained by fundamentals and speculates on the causes and permanence of this yield compression.
{"title":"Do Economists' and Financial Markets' Perspectives on the New Members of the EU Differ?","authors":"Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, S. Schadler","doi":"10.5089/9781451866292.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451866292.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"In the past several years, the ten new Central and Eastern European members of the European Union have enjoyed rapid growth but frequently alongside growing external imbalances. Economists have pointed to rising vulnerabilities, but markets compressed sovereign bond yields. This paper examines the evidence from the perspective of economists' vulnerability analysis and markets' pricing of sovereign bonds. It finds that spread are lower than can be explained by fundamentals and speculates on the causes and permanence of this yield compression.","PeriodicalId":163698,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131080977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Germany and France are both Continental European welfare states with severe labor market problems such as low employment and high and persistent unemployment which can be explained by labor market institutions that inhibit labor market adaptability. This paper analyzes recent reforms in core areas such as active and passive labor market policies, employment protection and the funding of social policies through taxes and social security contributions in both countries. It shows if and to what extent more favourable conditions for employment growth could be created. The paper identifies the limits of partial reforms in terms of the creation of more efficient labor market institutions although these reforms are highly plausible in politico-economic terms. However, the cumulative effect of sequences of marginal changes leads to a gradual medium-term transformation of both Continental European labor markets.
{"title":"The Gradual Transformation of Continental European Labor Markets: France and Germany Compared","authors":"W. Eichhorst","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.977544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.977544","url":null,"abstract":"Germany and France are both Continental European welfare states with severe labor market problems such as low employment and high and persistent unemployment which can be explained by labor market institutions that inhibit labor market adaptability. This paper analyzes recent reforms in core areas such as active and passive labor market policies, employment protection and the funding of social policies through taxes and social security contributions in both countries. It shows if and to what extent more favourable conditions for employment growth could be created. The paper identifies the limits of partial reforms in terms of the creation of more efficient labor market institutions although these reforms are highly plausible in politico-economic terms. However, the cumulative effect of sequences of marginal changes leads to a gradual medium-term transformation of both Continental European labor markets.","PeriodicalId":163698,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124931852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigate how the degree of credit market development is related to business cycle fluctuations in industrialized countries. I show that a business cycle model with collateral constraints generate a negative relation between the volatility of the cyclical component of output and the size of the credit market. I dentify the reallocation of capital as the key element in shaping out this relation. According to the model, more credit to the private sector makes output less sensitive to productivity shocks. Thus, the amplification role of credit frictions in the propagation of productivity shocks to output is greater in economies with higher degrees of credit rationing. I confront the prediction of the model with a panel of OECD countries over the last 20 years. Empirical evidence confirms that countries with a more developed credit market experience smoother fluctuations. Moreover, a greater size of the credit market dampens the propagation of productivity shocks to output and investment
{"title":"Credit Market and Macroeconomic Volatility","authors":"Caterina Mendicino","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.975681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.975681","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigate how the degree of credit market development is related to business cycle fluctuations in industrialized countries. I show that a business cycle model with collateral constraints generate a negative relation between the volatility of the cyclical component of output and the size of the credit market. I dentify the reallocation of capital as the key element in shaping out this relation. According to the model, more credit to the private sector makes output less sensitive to productivity shocks. Thus, the amplification role of credit frictions in the propagation of productivity shocks to output is greater in economies with higher degrees of credit rationing. I confront the prediction of the model with a panel of OECD countries over the last 20 years. Empirical evidence confirms that countries with a more developed credit market experience smoother fluctuations. Moreover, a greater size of the credit market dampens the propagation of productivity shocks to output and investment","PeriodicalId":163698,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal","volume":"191 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132332151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate during currency crises. Using data for a number of crisis episodes between 1986 and 2004, we find strong evidence that raising the interest rate: (i) has larger adverse balance sheet effects and is therefore less effective in countries with high domestic corporate short-term debt; (ii) is more credible and therefore more effective in countries with high-quality institutions; iii) is more credible and therefore more effective in countries with high external debt; and (iv) is less effective in countries with high capital account openness. We predict that monetary policy would have had the conventional supportive effect on the exchange rate during five of the crisis episodes in our sample, while it would have had the perverse effect during seven other episodes. For four episodes, we predict a statistically insignificant effect. Our results support the idea that the effect of monetary policy depends on its impact on fundamentals, as well as its credibility, as suggested in the recent theoretical literature. They also provide an explanation for the mixed findings in the empirical literature.
{"title":"The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates During Currency Crisis: The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness","authors":"S. Eijffinger, Benedikt Goderis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.987778","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.987778","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate during currency crises. Using data for a number of crisis episodes between 1986 and 2004, we find strong evidence that raising the interest rate: (i) has larger adverse balance sheet effects and is therefore less effective in countries with high domestic corporate short-term debt; (ii) is more credible and therefore more effective in countries with high-quality institutions; iii) is more credible and therefore more effective in countries with high external debt; and (iv) is less effective in countries with high capital account openness. We predict that monetary policy would have had the conventional supportive effect on the exchange rate during five of the crisis episodes in our sample, while it would have had the perverse effect during seven other episodes. For four episodes, we predict a statistically insignificant effect. Our results support the idea that the effect of monetary policy depends on its impact on fundamentals, as well as its credibility, as suggested in the recent theoretical literature. They also provide an explanation for the mixed findings in the empirical literature.","PeriodicalId":163698,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132363626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-03-01DOI: 10.7208/9780226042893-012
G. Friebel, E. Panova
We study how transition has affected human resource policies of a Russian heavy industry firm. Our data set contains personnel files of 1538 white-collar workers over 17 years: from 1984 to 2000. We find career paths before the first year of Gaidar's reforms, 1992, when Russian transition to a market economy began. After 1992, promotions are blocked, because both (i) more managers are hired from the outside, and (ii) fewer managers leave the firm. A possible reason is an extremely weak outsider property rights enforcement in Russia. Keywords: institutional environment and internal labor market, transition to a market economy.
{"title":"Insider Privatization and Careers - a Study of a Russian Firm in Transition","authors":"G. Friebel, E. Panova","doi":"10.7208/9780226042893-012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7208/9780226042893-012","url":null,"abstract":"We study how transition has affected human resource policies of a Russian heavy industry firm. Our data set contains personnel files of 1538 white-collar workers over 17 years: from 1984 to 2000. We find career paths before the first year of Gaidar's reforms, 1992, when Russian transition to a market economy began. After 1992, promotions are blocked, because both (i) more managers are hired from the outside, and (ii) fewer managers leave the firm. A possible reason is an extremely weak outsider property rights enforcement in Russia. Keywords: institutional environment and internal labor market, transition to a market economy.","PeriodicalId":163698,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128821878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
"In Switzerland, the existence of a mandatory minimum par value inhibited many companies from splitting their stocks as they already traded at their minimum par value. These Swiss companies could split their stocks only after the legal minimum par value was lowered in July 1992 and again in May 2001. These two events provide rare opportunities to distinguish between stock splits that signal a permanent increase in stock price and splits that are merely a reaction to a regulatory change and thus have other motives. The significant return differences between the two samples are in line with the hypothesis that splits are a means to send positive signals to the stock market. Furthermore, while trading volumes remained largely unaffected after stock splits, relative tick sizes generally increased after a stock split, and bid-ask spreads often increased after a stock split." Copyright (c) 2008 Financial Management Association International..
{"title":"Stock Splits in Switzerland: To Signal or Not to Signal?","authors":"R. Kunz, Sandro Rosa-Majhensek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.872527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.872527","url":null,"abstract":"\"In Switzerland, the existence of a mandatory minimum par value inhibited many companies from splitting their stocks as they already traded at their minimum par value. These Swiss companies could split their stocks only after the legal minimum par value was lowered in July 1992 and again in May 2001. These two events provide rare opportunities to distinguish between stock splits that signal a permanent increase in stock price and splits that are merely a reaction to a regulatory change and thus have other motives. The significant return differences between the two samples are in line with the hypothesis that splits are a means to send positive signals to the stock market. Furthermore, while trading volumes remained largely unaffected after stock splits, relative tick sizes generally increased after a stock split, and bid-ask spreads often increased after a stock split.\" Copyright (c) 2008 Financial Management Association International..","PeriodicalId":163698,"journal":{"name":"Institutional & Transition Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130932354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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