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Challenges, approaches and enablers: effectively triangulating towards dose selection in pediatric rare diseases. 挑战、方法和推动因素:儿科罕见病剂量选择的有效三角测量。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-06-09 DOI: 10.1007/s10928-023-09868-6
Chandrasekar Durairaj, Indranil Bhattacharya

Dose selection is an integral part of a molecule's journey to become medicine. On top of typical challenges faced in dose selection for more common diseases, pediatric rare disease has additional unique challenges due to the combination of 'rare' and 'pediatric' populations. Using the central theme of maximizing 'relevant' information to overcome information paucity, dose selection strategy in pediatric rare diseases is discussed using a triangulation concept involving challenges, approaches and very importantly, enablers. Using actual examples, unique scenarios are discussed where specific enablers allowed certain approaches to be used to overcome the challenges. The continued need for model-informed drug development is also discussed using examples of where modeling and simulation tools have been successfully used in bridging available information to select pediatric doses in rare disease. Additionally, challenges with translation and associated dose selection of new modalities such as gene therapy in rare diseases are examined with the lens of continuous learning and knowledge development that will enable pediatric dose selection of these modalities with confidence.

剂量选择是分子成为药物过程中不可或缺的一部分。除了在更常见疾病的剂量选择方面面临的典型挑战之外,由于“罕见”和“儿科”人口的结合,儿科罕见病还面临额外的独特挑战。利用最大化“相关”信息以克服信息匮乏的中心主题,使用涉及挑战,方法和非常重要的促成因素的三角概念讨论儿科罕见病的剂量选择策略。通过使用实际示例,讨论了独特的场景,其中特定的推动者允许使用某些方法来克服挑战。本文还讨论了基于模型的药物开发的持续必要性,并举例说明了建模和仿真工具已成功地用于连接现有信息以选择罕见疾病的儿科剂量。此外,通过持续学习和知识发展的视角,研究罕见疾病基因治疗等新模式的转化和相关剂量选择方面的挑战,使儿科能够自信地选择这些模式的剂量。
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引用次数: 0
The future of rare disease drug development: the rare disease cures accelerator data analytics platform (RDCA-DAP). 罕见病药物开发的未来:罕见病治疗加速器数据分析平台(RDCA-DAP)。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-02 DOI: 10.1007/s10928-023-09859-7
Jeffrey S Barrett, Alexandre Betourne, Ramona L Walls, Kara Lasater, Scott Russell, Amanda Borens, Shlok Rohatagi, Will Roddy

Rare disease drug development is wrought with challenges not the least of which is access to the limited data currently available throughout the rare disease ecosystem where sharing of the available data is not guaranteed. Most pharmaceutical sponsors seeking to develop agents to treat rare diseases will initiate data landscaping efforts to identify various data sources that might be informative with respect to disease prevalence, patient selection and identification, disease progression and any data projecting likelihood of patient response to therapy including any genetic data. Such data are often difficult to come by for highly prevalent, mainstream disease populations let alone for the 8000 rare disease that make up the pooled patient population of rare disease patients. The future of rare disease drug development will hopefully rely on increased data sharing and collaboration among the entire rare disease ecosystem. One path to achieving this outcome has been the development of the rare disease cures accelerator, data analytics platform (RDCA-DAP) funded by the US FDA and operationalized by the Critical Path Institute. FDA intentions were clearly focused on improving the quality of rare disease regulatory applications by sponsors seeking to develop treatment options for various rare disease populations. As this initiative moves into its second year of operations it is envisioned that the increased connectivity to new and diverse data streams and tools will result in solutions that benefit the entire rare disease ecosystem and that the platform becomes a Collaboratory for engagement of this ecosystem that also includes patients and caregivers.

罕见病药物开发面临诸多挑战,其中最重要的挑战是获取目前在整个罕见病生态系统中可用的有限数据,而现有数据的共享无法得到保证。大多数寻求开发治疗罕见病药物的制药赞助商将启动数据美化工作,以确定各种数据源,这些数据源可能提供有关疾病流行、患者选择和识别、疾病进展以及预测患者对治疗反应可能性的任何数据(包括任何遗传数据)方面的信息。对于高度流行的主流疾病人群来说,这样的数据往往很难获得,更不用说构成罕见疾病患者汇总人群的8000种罕见疾病了。罕见病药物开发的未来有望依赖于整个罕见病生态系统之间增加的数据共享和合作。实现这一目标的一个途径是开发罕见病治疗加速器,数据分析平台(RDCA-DAP),该平台由美国FDA资助,由关键路径研究所(Critical path Institute)运营。FDA的意图显然集中在提高罕见病监管申请的质量,寻求为各种罕见病人群开发治疗方案。随着该计划进入运营的第二年,预计与新的和多样化的数据流和工具的连接将增加,从而产生有利于整个罕见疾病生态系统的解决方案,并且该平台将成为包括患者和护理人员在内的这个生态系统的合作实验室。
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引用次数: 0
Achieving big with small: quantitative clinical pharmacology tools for drug development in pediatric rare diseases. 以小成就大:儿科罕见疾病药物开发的定量临床药理学工具。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1007/s10928-023-09863-x
Mariam A Ahmed, Janelle Burnham, Gaurav Dwivedi, Bilal AbuAsal

Pediatric populations represent a major fraction of rare diseases and compound the intrinsic challenges of pediatric drug development and drug development for rare diseases. The intertwined complexities of pediatric and rare disease populations impose unique challenges to clinical pharmacologists and require integration of novel clinical pharmacology and quantitative tools to overcome multiple hurdles during the discovery and development of new therapies. Drug development strategies for pediatric rare diseases continue to evolve to meet the inherent challenges and produce new medicines. Advances in quantitative clinical pharmacology research have been a key component in advancing pediatric rare disease research to accelerate drug development and inform regulatory decisions. This article will discuss the evolution of the regulatory landscape in pediatric rare diseases, the challenges encountered during the design of rare disease drug development programs and will highlight the use of innovative tools and potential solutions for future development programs.

儿科人口占罕见病患者的很大一部分,并使儿科药物开发和罕见病药物开发的内在挑战复杂化。儿科和罕见疾病的复杂性给临床药理学家带来了独特的挑战,需要将新的临床药理学和定量工具相结合,以克服新疗法发现和开发过程中的多重障碍。儿童罕见病的药物开发战略不断发展,以满足固有的挑战,并产生新的药物。定量临床药理学研究的进展是推进儿科罕见病研究的关键组成部分,可以加速药物开发并为监管决策提供信息。本文将讨论儿科罕见病监管格局的演变,罕见病药物开发项目设计过程中遇到的挑战,并将重点介绍创新工具的使用和未来开发项目的潜在解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Empirical bayes approach for dynamic bayesian borrowing for clinical trials in rare diseases. 罕见病临床试验中动态贝叶斯借用的经验贝叶斯方法。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10928-023-09860-0
Bernard Sebastien

Application of Bayesian methods is one the tools that can be used to face the multiple challenges that are met when clinical trials must be conducted in rare diseases. We propose in this work to use a dynamic Bayesian borrowing approach, based on a mixture prior, to complement the control arm of a comparative trial and estimate the mixture parameter by an Empirical Bayes approach. The method is compared, using simulations, with an approach based on a pre-specified (non-adaptive) informative prior. The simulation study shows that the proposed method exhibits similar power as the non-adaptive prior and drastically reduce type I error in case of severe discrepancy between the informative prior and the study control arm data. In case of limited discrepancy between the informative prior and the study control arm data, then our proposed adaptive prior does not reduce the inflation of the type I error.

贝叶斯方法的应用是应对罕见病临床试验所面临的多重挑战的工具之一。在这项工作中,我们建议使用基于混合先验的动态贝叶斯借用方法来补充比较试验的控制臂,并通过经验贝叶斯方法估计混合参数。通过仿真,将该方法与基于预先指定的(非自适应)信息先验的方法进行了比较。仿真研究表明,在信息先验与研究控制臂数据存在严重差异的情况下,该方法具有与非自适应先验相似的能力,可以显著降低I型误差。如果信息先验与研究控制组数据之间的差异有限,则我们提出的自适应先验不能减少I型误差的膨胀。
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引用次数: 0
External control arms for rare diseases: building a body of supporting evidence. 罕见病的外部控制:建立支持性证据体系。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.1007/s10928-023-09858-8
Artak Khachatryan, Stephanie H Read, Terri Madison

Comparator arms in randomized clinical trials may be impractical and/or unethical to assemble in rare diseases. In the absence of comparator arms, evidence generated from external control studies has been used to support successful regulatory submissions and health technology assessments (HTA). However, conducting robust and rigorous external control arm studies is challenging and despite all efforts, residual biases may remain. As a result, regulatory and HTA agencies may request additional external control analyses so that decisions may be made based upon a body of supporting evidence.This paper introduces external control studies and provides an overview of the key methodological issues to be considered in the design of these studies. A series of case studies are presented in which evidence derived from one or more external controls was submitted to regulatory and HTA agencies to provide support for the consistency of findings.

随机临床试验中的比较组在罕见疾病中组合可能不切实际和/或不道德。在没有比较机构的情况下,外部对照研究产生的证据已被用于支持成功提交监管文件和卫生技术评估。然而,进行稳健和严格的外部控制臂研究是具有挑战性的,尽管做出了所有努力,残留的偏见可能仍然存在。因此,监管机构和HTA机构可能会要求额外的外部控制分析,以便根据一系列支持性证据做出决定。本文介绍了外部控制研究,并概述了在设计这些研究时要考虑的关键方法问题。在一系列案例研究中,来自一个或多个外部控制的证据被提交给监管机构和卫生管理局,以支持研究结果的一致性。
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引用次数: 0
An integrated modelling approach for targeted degradation: insights on optimization, data requirements and PKPD predictions from semi- or fully-mechanistic models and exact steady state solutions. 针对目标降解的集成建模方法:从半或完全机械模型和精确稳态解决方案中深入了解优化、数据要求和PKPD预测。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2023-10-01 Epub Date: 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.1007/s10928-023-09857-9
Sofia Guzzetti, Pablo Morentin Gutierrez

The value of an integrated mathematical modelling approach for protein degraders which combines the benefits of traditional turnover models and fully mechanistic models is presented. Firstly, we show how exact solutions of the mechanistic models of monovalent and bivalent degraders can provide insight on the role of each system parameter in driving the pharmacological response. We show how on/off binding rates and degradation rates are related to potency and maximal effect of monovalent degraders, and how such relationship can be used to suggest a compound optimization strategy. Even convoluted exact steady state solutions for bivalent degraders provide insight on the type of observations required to ensure the predictive capacity of a mechanistic approach. Specifically for PROTACs, the structure of the exact steady state solution suggests that the total remaining target at steady state, which is easily accessible experimentally, is insufficient to reconstruct the state of the whole system at equilibrium and observations on different species (such as binary/ternary complexes) are necessary. Secondly, global sensitivity analysis of fully mechanistic models for PROTACs suggests that both target and ligase baselines (actually, their ratio) are the major sources of variability in the response of non-cooperative systems, which speaks to the importance of characterizing their distribution in the target patient population. Finally, we propose a pragmatic modelling approach which incorporates the insights generated with fully mechanistic models into simpler turnover models to improve their predictive ability, hence enabling acceleration of drug discovery programs and increased probability of success in the clinic.

介绍了蛋白质降解器综合数学建模方法的价值,该方法结合了传统周转模型和完全机械模型的优点。首先,我们展示了单价和二价降解物的机制模型的精确解如何能够深入了解每个系统参数在驱动药理学反应中的作用。我们展示了开启/关闭结合率和降解率如何与单价降解剂的效力和最大效果相关,以及如何利用这种关系来提出化合物优化策略。即使是二价降解物的复杂精确稳态解,也能深入了解确保机械方法预测能力所需的观测类型。特别是对于PROTAC,精确稳态解的结构表明,在稳态下的总剩余目标(很容易通过实验获得)不足以重建整个系统的平衡状态,有必要对不同物种(如二元/三元络合物)进行观察。其次,对PROTAC的全机制模型的全局敏感性分析表明,靶标和连接酶基线(实际上,它们的比率)是非合作系统反应变异的主要来源,这说明了表征它们在靶标患者群体中分布的重要性。最后,我们提出了一种实用的建模方法,将全机制模型产生的见解纳入更简单的周转模型中,以提高其预测能力,从而加快药物发现计划,提高临床成功的概率。
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引用次数: 2
Clinical validation of translational antibody PBPK model using tissue distribution data generated with 89Zr-immuno-PET imaging. 使用89Zr免疫PET成像生成的组织分布数据对翻译抗体PBPK模型进行临床验证。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2023-10-01 Epub Date: 2023-06-29 DOI: 10.1007/s10928-023-09869-5
Shufang Liu, Zhe Li, Marc Huisman, Dhaval K Shah

The main objective of this manuscript was to validate the ability of the monoclonal antibody physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to predict tissue concentrations of antibodies in the human. To accomplish this goal, preclinical and clinical tissue distribution and positron emission tomography imaging data generated using zirconium-89 (89Zr) labeled antibodies were obtained from the literature. First, our previously published translational PBPK model for antibodies was expanded to describe the whole-body biodistribution of 89Zr labeled antibody and the free 89Zr, as well as residualization of free 89Zr. Subsequently, the model was optimized using mouse biodistribution data, where it was observed that free 89Zr mainly residualizes in the bone and the extent of antibody distribution in certain tissues (e.g., liver and spleen) may be altered by labeling with 89Zr. The mouse PBPK model was scaled to rat, monkey, and human by simply changing the physiological parameters, and a priori simulations performed by the model were compared with the observed PK data. It was found that model predicted antibody PK in majority of the tissues in all the species superimposed over the observed data, and the model was also able to predict the PK of antibody in human tissues reasonably well. As such, the work presented here provides unprecedented evaluation of the antibody PPBK model for its ability to predict tissue PK of antibodies in the clinic. This model can be used for preclinical-to-clinical translation of antibodies and for prediction of antibody concentrations at the site-of-action in the clinic.

本文的主要目的是验证基于单克隆抗体生理学的药代动力学(PBPK)模型预测人体内抗体组织浓度的能力。为了实现这一目标,从文献中获得了使用锆-89(89Zr)标记的抗体生成的临床前和临床组织分布以及正电子发射断层扫描成像数据。首先,我们之前发表的抗体的翻译PBPK模型被扩展,以描述89Zr标记的抗体和游离89Zr的全身生物分布,以及游离89 Zr的残留。随后,使用小鼠生物分布数据对模型进行了优化,其中观察到游离的89Zr主要残留在骨骼中,并且抗体在某些组织(例如肝脏和脾脏)中的分布程度可以通过用89Zr标记来改变。通过简单地改变生理参数,将小鼠PBPK模型缩放到大鼠、猴子和人类,并将该模型进行的先验模拟与观察到的PK数据进行比较。研究发现,该模型预测了所有物种中大多数组织中的抗体PK,并叠加在观察到的数据上,该模型也能够很好地预测抗体在人体组织中的PK。因此,本文提出的工作为抗体PPBK模型在临床上预测抗体的组织PK的能力提供了前所未有的评估。该模型可用于抗体的临床前到临床转化以及用于预测临床中作用位点的抗体浓度。
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引用次数: 0
Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling of bempedoic acid and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in healthy subjects and patients with dyslipidemia. 苯二酸和低密度脂蛋白胆固醇在健康受试者和血脂异常患者中的群体药代动力学和药代动力学药效学建模。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2023-10-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-27 DOI: 10.1007/s10928-023-09864-w
Satyawan B Jadhav, Benny M Amore, Howard Bockbrader, Ryan L Crass, Sunny Chapel, William J Sasiela, Maurice G Emery

Population pharmacokinetics (popPK) of bempedoic acid and the popPK/pharmacodynamic (popPK/PD) relationship between bempedoic acid concentrations and serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) from baseline were characterized. A two-compartment disposition model with a transit absorption compartment and linear elimination best described bempedoic acid oral pharmacokinetics (PK). Multiple covariates, including renal function, sex, and weight, had statistically significant effects on the predicted steady-state area under the curve. Mild (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 60 to < 90 mL/min vs. ≥ 90 mL/min) and moderate (eGFR 30 to < 60 mL/min vs. ≥ 90 mL/min) renal impairment, female sex, low (< 70 kg vs. 70-100 kg) and high (> 100 kg vs. 70-100 kg) body weight were predicted to have a 1.36-fold (90% confidence interval (CI) 1.32, 1.41), 1.85-fold (90% CI 1.74, 2.00), 1.39-fold (90% CI 1.34, 1.47), 1.35-fold (90% CI 1.30, 1.41), and 0.75-fold (90% CI 0.72, 0.79) exposure difference relative to their reference populations, respectively. An indirect response model described changes in serum LDL-C with a model-predicted 35% maximal reduction and bempedoic acid IC50 of 3.17 µg/mL. A 28% reduction from LDL-C baseline was predicted for a steady-state average concentration of 12.5 µg/mL after bempedoic acid (180 mg/day) dosing, accounting for approximately 80% of the predicted maximal LDL-C reduction. Concurrent statin therapy, regardless of intensity, reduced the maximal effect of bempedoic acid but resulted in similar steady-state LDL-C levels. While multiple covariates had statistically significant effects on PK and LDL-C lowering, none were predicted to warrant bempedoic acid dose adjustment.

研究了苯磺酸的群体药代动力学(popPK)以及苯磺酸浓度与血清低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)之间的popPK/PD关系。一个具有转运吸收区和线性消除的两区室配置模型最能描述苯磺酸口服药代动力学(PK)。多个协变量,包括肾功能、性别和体重,对预测的曲线下稳态面积有统计学显著影响。轻度(估计肾小球滤过率(eGFR)60至  100 kg与70-100 kg)体重的暴露差异预测为其参考人群的1.36倍(90%置信区间(CI)1.32,1.41)、1.85倍(90%CI 1.74,2.00)、1.39倍(90%CI1.34,1.47)、1.35倍(90%CI1.30,1.41和0.75倍(90%CI0.72,0.79)。一个间接反应模型描述了血清LDL-C的变化,该模型预测LDL-C最大降低35%,苯甲酸IC50为3.17µg/mL。苯甲酸(180 mg/天)给药后,稳态平均浓度为12.5µg/mL,LDL-C比基线降低28%,约占预测的最大LDL-C降低的80%。同时进行他汀类药物治疗,无论强度如何,都会降低贝米多酸的最大作用,但会导致类似的稳态LDL-C水平。虽然多个协变量对PK和LDL-C的降低有统计学意义的影响,但没有一个协变量被预测为需要调整苯磺酸剂量。
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引用次数: 1
Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling to predict drug-drug interaction of enzalutamide with combined P-gp and CYP3A substrates. 基于生理学的药代动力学模型预测恩扎鲁胺与P-gp和CYP3A联合底物的药物相互作用。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2023-10-01 Epub Date: 2023-06-21 DOI: 10.1007/s10928-023-09867-7
Yukio Otsuka, Srinivasu Poondru, Peter L Bonate, Rachel H Rose, Masoud Jamei, Fumihiko Ushigome, Tsuyoshi Minematsu

Enzalutamide is known to strongly induce cytochrome P450 3A4 (CYP3A4). Furthermore, enzalutamide showed induction and inhibition of P-glycoprotein (P-gp) in in vitro studies. A clinical drug-drug interaction (DDI) study between enzalutamide and digoxin, a typical P-gp substrate, suggested enzalutamide has weak inhibitory effect on P-gp substrates. Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), such as apixaban and rivaroxaban, are dual substrates of CYP3A4 and P-gp, and hence it is recommended to avoid co-administration of these DOACs with combined P-gp and strong CYP3A inducers. Enzalutamide's net effect on P-gp and CYP3A for apixaban and rivaroxaban plasma exposures is of interest to physicians who treat patients for venous thromboembolism with prostate cancer. Accordingly, a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) analysis was performed to predict the magnitude of DDI on apixaban and rivaroxaban exposures in the presence of 160 mg once-daily dosing of enzalutamide. The PBPK models of enzalutamide and M2, a major metabolite of enzalutamide which also has potential to induce CYP3A and P-gp and inhibit P-gp, were developed and verified as perpetrators of CYP3A-and P-gp-mediated interaction. Simulation results predicted a 31% decrease in AUC and no change in Cmax for apixaban and a 45% decrease in AUC and a 25% decrease in Cmax for rivaroxaban when 160 mg multiple doses of enzalutamide were co-administered. In summary, enzalutamide is considered to decrease apixaban and rivaroxaban exposure through the combined effects of CYP3A induction and net P-gp inhibition. Concurrent use of these drugs warrants careful monitoring for efficacy and safety.

已知恩扎鲁胺能强烈诱导细胞色素P4503A4(CYP3A4)。此外,恩扎鲁胺在体外研究中显示出对P-糖蛋白(P-gp)的诱导和抑制作用。恩扎鲁胺与地高辛(一种典型的P-gp底物)之间的临床药物相互作用(DDI)研究表明,恩扎鲁酰胺对P-gp底物的抑制作用较弱。直接口服抗凝剂(DOAC),如阿哌沙班和利伐沙班,是CYP3A4和P-gp的双重底物,因此建议避免将这些DOAC与P-gp和强CYP3A诱导剂联合给药。恩扎鲁胺对阿哌沙班和利伐沙班血浆暴露的P-gp和CYP3A的净影响是治疗前列腺癌症静脉血栓栓塞患者的医生感兴趣的。因此,进行了基于生理学的药代动力学(PBPK)分析,以预测在存在160 mg恩扎鲁胺每日一次给药的情况下阿哌沙班和利伐沙班暴露的DDI的幅度。恩扎鲁胺和M2的PBPK模型被开发并验证为CYP3A和P-gp介导的相互作用的肇事者,M2是恩扎鲁酰胺的主要代谢产物,也有可能诱导CYP3A和P-gp并抑制P-gp。模拟结果预测,当160 mg多剂量恩扎鲁胺联合给药时,阿哌沙班的AUC下降31%,Cmax没有变化,利伐沙班的AUC下降45%,Cmax下降25%。总之,恩扎鲁胺被认为通过CYP3A诱导和净P-gp抑制的联合作用来减少阿哌沙班和利伐沙班的暴露。同时使用这些药物需要仔细监测疗效和安全性。
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引用次数: 0
A two-stages global sensitivity analysis by using the δ sensitivity index in presence of correlated inputs: application on a tumor growth inhibition model based on the dynamic energy budget theory. 在存在相关输入的情况下,使用δ敏感性指数进行两阶段全局敏感性分析:基于动态能量预算理论的肿瘤生长抑制模型的应用。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY Pub Date : 2023-10-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-09 DOI: 10.1007/s10928-023-09872-w
Alessandro De Carlo, Elena Maria Tosca, Nicola Melillo, Paolo Magni

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) evaluates the impact of variability and/or uncertainty of the model parameters on given model outputs. GSA is useful for assessing the quality of Pharmacometric model inference. Indeed, model parameters can be affected by high (estimation) uncertainty due to the sparsity of data. Independence between model parameters is a common assumption of GSA methods. However, ignoring (known) correlations between parameters may alter model predictions and, then, GSA results. To address this issue, a novel two-stages GSA technique based on the δ index, which is well-defined also in presence of correlated parameters, is here proposed. In the first step, statistical dependencies are neglected to identify parameters exerting causal effects. Correlations are introduced in the second step to consider the real distribution of the model output and investigate also the 'indirect' effects due to the correlation structure. The proposed two-stages GSA strategy was applied, as case study, to a preclinical tumor-in-host-growth inhibition model based on the Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The aim is to evaluate the impact of the model parameter estimate uncertainty (including correlations) on key model-derived metrics: the drug threshold concentration for tumor eradication, the tumor volume doubling time and a new index evaluating the drug efficacy-toxicity trade-off. This approach allowed to rank parameters according to their impact on the output, discerning whether a parameter mainly exerts a causal or 'indirect' effect. Thus, it was possible to identify uncertainties that should be necessarily reduced to obtain robust predictions for the outputs of interest.

全局灵敏度分析(GSA)评估模型参数的可变性和/或不确定性对给定模型输出的影响。GSA可用于评估药效学模型推断的质量。事实上,由于数据的稀疏性,模型参数可能会受到高(估计)不确定性的影响。模型参数之间的独立性是GSA方法的一个常见假设。然而,忽略参数之间的(已知的)相关性可能会改变模型预测,然后改变GSA结果。为了解决这个问题,本文提出了一种基于δ指数的新的两阶段GSA技术,该技术在存在相关参数的情况下也得到了很好的定义。在第一步中,忽略统计相关性来识别产生因果效应的参数。在第二步中引入相关性,以考虑模型输出的真实分布,并研究由于相关性结构引起的“间接”影响。基于动态能量预算理论,将所提出的两阶段GSA策略应用于临床前宿主肿瘤生长抑制模型作为案例研究。目的是评估模型参数估计的不确定性(包括相关性)对关键模型衍生指标的影响:肿瘤根除的药物阈值浓度、肿瘤体积倍增时间和评估药物疗效-毒性权衡的新指标。这种方法允许根据参数对输出的影响对参数进行排序,判断参数主要是产生因果效应还是“间接”效应。因此,可以确定必须减少的不确定性,以获得对感兴趣的输出的稳健预测。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics
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