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Characterising a diversity of coastal community fisheries in Kiribati and Vanuatu 基里巴斯和瓦努阿图沿海社区渔业的多样性特征
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12849
Brooke Campbell, Dirk Steenbergen, Owen Li, Abel Sami, Beia Nikiari, Aurélie Delisle, Pita Neihapi, Tarateiti Uriam, Neil Andrew
Understanding what diversity of small‐scale fisheries translates to in practice, and what this means for management regimes seeking sustainability, continues to be a challenging undertaking. This is particularly so in the tropical Pacific Islands region, where small‐scale coastal fisheries play a significant role in domestic food and livelihood systems. A renewed regional policy focus on supporting coastal fisheries, combined with momentum built from a decades‐long ‘Pacific renaissance’ in community‐based fisheries management approaches, has increased resourcing and support for coastal fishery data collection and knowledge production. In this context, there is growing demand to explicitly characterise diversity and complexity of community‐based coastal fisheries to inform how national co‐management programs can adequately support the many communities within national constituencies. This study presents findings from a community‐based coastal fisheries monitoring programme implemented in ten communities across Kiribati and Vanuatu between 2019 and 2021. Findings illustrate the intra‐ and inter‐country diversity of contextual drivers, fishing practices, and fisher participation. We discuss the implications of this enhanced understanding of community‐based fisheries for applied co‐management practice in these two countries. In doing so, we add to a growing knowledge base about fishing practices in Pacific Island coastal communities and elucidate avenues through which to incorporate this knowledge into adaptive co‐management practice.
了解小型渔业的多样性在实践中的体现,以及这对寻求可持续性的管理制度意味着什么,仍然是一项具有挑战性的工作。在热带太平洋岛屿地区尤其如此,那里的小型沿海渔业在国内粮食和生计系统中发挥着重要作用。支持沿海渔业的新区域政策重点,加上几十年来社区渔业管理方法的 "太平洋复兴 "势头,增加了对沿海渔业数据收集和知识生产的资源和支持。在这种情况下,人们越来越需要明确描述以社区为基础的沿海渔业的多样性和复杂性,以便为国家共同管理计划如何充分支持国家选区内的众多社区提供信息。本研究介绍了 2019 年至 2021 年期间在基里巴斯和瓦努阿图 10 个社区实施的社区沿海渔业监测计划的结果。研究结果表明了国家内部和国家之间在环境驱动因素、渔业实践和渔民参与方面的多样性。我们讨论了加深对社区渔业的理解对这两个国家应用共同管理实践的影响。在此过程中,我们补充了有关太平洋岛屿沿海社区捕鱼实践的不断增长的知识库,并阐明了将这些知识纳入适应性共同管理实践的途径。
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引用次数: 0
Probability ogives for trends in stock biomass and fishing mortality from landings time series 从上岸量时间序列得出种群生物量和捕捞死亡率趋势的概率值
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12848
Ruben H. Roa‐Ureta, Patrícia Amorim, Susana Segurado
Most fisheries are conducted without any scientific knowledge about the size and productivity of the stocks that support them. This navigation in the dark in most fisheries is a major obstacle in making them sustainable sources of nutrition for people in general and income for fishers and other economic actors along supply chains. Fisheries that have not been assessed generally are data‐intermediate and data‐poor, the latter usually having annual time series of landings as the single piece of data available. A major effort in the last two decades has been directed toward developing ‘catch‐only’ stock assessment methods, although some of these methods have been tested and found deficient. Here we provide a novel approach to using annual landing time series as the single source of data to qualitatively judge the condition of un‐assessed stocks using frequentist cumulative probability ogives, both in terms of stock biomass and fishing mortality. A meta‐analysis of the FishSource database allowed us to infer statistical patterns from hundreds of assessed fisheries and thousands of annual landings, biomass, and fishing mortality observations. Four stock‐management types were considered separately in the analysis: short‐lived and others (mid‐ to long‐lived) stocks, controlled or not controlled by catch limits. Obtained cumulative probability ogives provide clear evaluations of stock biomass and fishing mortality trends in all four stock‐management types, leading to actionable information on probable current status and future trends. Using these probability ogives, we developed decision trees that lead to qualitative scores on the exploitation status of un‐assessed stocks.
大多数渔业都是在对支持其发展的鱼类种群的规模和生产力缺乏科学认识的情况下进行的。大多数渔业都是在黑暗中进行的,这是使渔业成为可持续的营养来源、渔民收入来源和供应链上其他经济参与者收入来源的主要障碍。未经评估的渔业通常是数据中间型和数据贫乏型,后者通常只有上岸量的年度时间序列数据。过去二十年来,人们一直致力于开发 "纯渔获量 "种群评估方法,但其中一些方法经过测试后发现存在缺陷。在此,我们提供了一种新方法,将年度上岸量时间序列作为单一数据源,利用频数累积概率算法,从种群生物量和捕捞死亡率两方面对未评估种群的状况进行定性判断。通过对 FishSource 数据库进行元分析,我们可以从数百个评估渔业和数千个年度上岸量、生物量和捕捞死亡率观测数据中推断出统计模式。分析中分别考虑了四种种群管理类型:短期种群和其他(中长期)种群、受渔获量限制控制或不受渔获量限制控制的种群。所获得的累积概率分布对所有四种种群管理类型的种群生物量和捕捞死亡率趋势进行了清晰的评估,从而为当前的可能状况和未来趋势提供了可操作的信息。利用这些概率指标,我们开发了决策树,对未评估种群的开发状况进行定性评分。
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引用次数: 0
A commentary on the role of hatcheries and stocking programs in salmon conservation and adapting ourselves to less-than-wild futures 关于孵化场和放养计划在鲑鱼保护中的作用以及让我们适应不那么野生的未来的评论
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12836
Hannah L. Harrison, Valerie Berseth

Hatcheries and stocking programs serve a variety of objectives, including the conservation of salmon populations. Much attention has been given to the importance of genetic integrity and adaptive capacity of salmon stocks, particularly as they interact with hatchery-origin fish. Literature on hatchery and stocking programs has increasingly focused on genetic indicators of quality and success, with genetically ‘wild’ salmon valued over hatchery-influenced salmon. However, conservation in the Anthropocene is challenging paradigms of wildness and definitions of conservation success. For salmon populations that exist on the ragged edge of climate change where threats are unlikely to be remediated to the status of ecologies past, definitions of ‘wild’ and the role of conservation hatcheries and stocking becomes convoluted. If definitions of ‘wild’ or ‘natural’ salmon depend on salmon archetypes situated in historic ecologies, then what do salmon futures look like? In that context, we argue to expand from primarily genetic criteria for conservation stocking to additional criteria cognizant of hybrid ecosystems and future human-salmon relationships. We draw on the concept of adaptive epistemologies within the context of conservation-oriented hatchery and stocking programs to critically reflect on knowledge paradigms and values that underlie salmon conservation stocking efforts and the changing ecosystems in which they are situated. We critique ‘wild’ discourses rooted in western thought and make suggestions toward a reimagining of salmon conservation-via-hatchery in the Anthropocene that allows for expansive human-salmon futures. Critically, we conclude with warnings against using the arguments in this paper as social permission to use hatcheries as a conservation panacea.

孵化场和放养计划服务于各种目标,包括保护鲑鱼种群。鲑鱼种群遗传完整性和适应能力的重要性受到了广泛关注,尤其是当它们与孵化场原生鱼类相互作用时。有关孵化和放养计划的文献越来越关注质量和成功的基因指标,基因 "野生 "鲑鱼的价值高于受孵化影响的鲑鱼。然而,"人类世 "中的保护工作正在挑战野生性范式和保护成功的定义。对于处于气候变化边缘的鲑鱼种群来说,所面临的威胁不太可能恢复到过去的生态状态,因此 "野生 "的定义以及保护孵化场和放养的作用变得错综复杂。如果 "野生 "或 "天然 "鲑鱼的定义取决于历史生态中的鲑鱼原型,那么鲑鱼的未来会是什么样子?在这种情况下,我们认为应将保护性放养的主要基因标准扩展到认识到混合生态系统和未来人类与三文鱼关系的额外标准。我们在以保护为导向的孵化和放养计划中借鉴了适应性认识论的概念,批判性地反思了支撑鲑鱼保护性放养工作的知识范式和价值观,以及它们所处的不断变化的生态系统。我们对植根于西方思想的 "野生 "论述进行了批判,并提出了在人类世通过孵化场对鲑鱼保护进行重新认识的建议,从而实现人类与鲑鱼的广阔未来。批判性地讲,我们最后警告说,不要将本文的论点作为将孵化场作为保护灵丹妙药的社会许可。
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引用次数: 0
Finding the right plaice at the right time: Multi‐molecular analysis of flatfish reveals historical catch habitats 在正确的时间找到正确的鲽鱼:对比目鱼的多分子分析揭示了历史捕捞生境
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12847
Katrien Dierickx, Peter Schauer, Jennifer Harland, Alan Pipe, Tarek Oueslati, Alexander Lehouck, Anton Ervynck, Wim Wouters, Matthew Von Tersch, David Orton, Michelle Alexander
Flatfish are ecologically diverse species that commonly occur in marine environments, but also in estuarine and riverine habitats. This complicates the examination of the potential role of flatfish in the ‘marine fish event horizon’, an economic shift in human exploitation from freshwater to marine fish species during the 10–11th centuries CE around the southern North Sea. This study represents the first multi‐disciplinary investigation of flatfish remains to make species‐specific interpretations of flatfish exploitation. Peptide mass fingerprinting and multi‐isotope analysis of carbon (δ13C), nitrogen (δ15N) and sulphur (δ34S) was performed on collagen from 356 archaeological flatfish and 120 comparative archaeological marine or freshwater species to explore the catch habitat of individual flatfish species between 600 and 1600 CE from the North Sea area. European flounder show signals reflecting both freshwater and marine environments, while other flatfish show only those of marine habitats. A subtle shift towards more marine exploitation towards the end of the period is identified, corresponding to the observed transition in targeted species from flounder to plaice throughout the medieval period. Sites show slight differences in δ13C and δ34S within the same species, related to the local environments. Remarkable is the high abundance of marine plaice and flounder during the early medieval period, which shows clear marine or coastal exploitation of flatfish early on, well before the previously accepted onset of the marine fish event horizon. This indicates a gradual shift from coastal to open marine fish exploitation over the medieval period.
比目鱼是生态多样性物种,通常出现在海洋环境中,但也出现在河口和河流栖息地。这使得研究比目鱼在 "海洋鱼类事件地平线 "中的潜在作用变得更加复杂,"海洋鱼类事件地平线 "是公元 10-11 世纪期间人类在北海南部地区从淡水鱼类向海洋鱼类的经济开发转变。这项研究是首次对比目鱼遗骸进行的多学科调查,目的是对比目鱼开发进行特定物种解释。研究人员对 356 条考古比目鱼和 120 个考古海洋或淡水物种的胶原蛋白进行了肽质量指纹分析以及碳(δ13C)、氮(δ15N)和硫(δ34S)多同位素分析,以探索公元 600 年至 1600 年期间北海地区各个比目鱼物种的捕捞栖息地。欧洲比目鱼显示出反映淡水和海洋环境的信号,而其他比目鱼只显示出海洋栖息地的信号。在这一时期的末期,发现了一种微妙的变化,即更多的海洋开发,这与整个中世纪期间观察到的目标鱼种从比目鱼到鲽鱼的转变是一致的。各遗址显示,同一物种的 δ13C 和 δ34S 略有不同,这与当地环境有关。值得注意的是,在中世纪早期,海洋鲽鱼和比目鱼的数量很高,这表明很早以前就有明显的海洋或沿海开发比目鱼的现象,远远早于以前公认的海洋鱼类事件发生的时间。这表明,在中世纪时期,对海洋鱼类的开发逐渐从沿海转向开放式海洋。
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引用次数: 0
Depredation: An old conflict with the sea 掠夺:与海洋的古老冲突
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-25 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12846
James Marcus Drymon, Amanda E. Jargowsky, Evan G. Prasky, Edward V. Camp, Ashley Oliphant, Sean P. Powers, Steven B. Scyphers
Depredation (the partial or complete removal of a hooked species by a non‐target species) is a human–wildlife conflict as old as humans and the sea. In some ways, depredation is no different today than it was a century ago. But in many ways, this conflict has become more complicated. Following three decades of successful management, some US shark populations have begun to rebuild. However, many anglers attribute perceived increases in shark depredation to management measures, claiming they have led to ‘overpopulation’ of sharks and/or learned behaviour by sharks. We investigated whether these factors could explain the reported increases in depredation. Based on fishery‐independent surveys, neither shark population increases nor learned behaviour by sharks is evident. However, increases in angler effort provide an alternative explanation that is not often considered. While far from a smoking gun, at least four themes emerge from this thought exercise. First, it is important to understand historical predator baselines. Second, it is important to acknowledge lifting baselines, that is, instances where previously depleted populations are recovering. Third, it is important to remember that there are many instances when stakeholder observations were initially misaligned with traditional scientific observations but were ultimately recognized as pivotal for filling data gaps. Finally, and perhaps most important, is the acknowledgement that perceived conflict is as potent as real conflict. Arguably, it may not matter if depredation has increased or decreased; the overwhelming perception from stakeholders is an increase in depredation, and this is the perceived (or real) conflict that must be addressed.
掠食(非目标物种部分或完全清除上钩物种)是人类与野生动物之间的冲突,其历史与人类和海洋的历史一样悠久。在某些方面,今天的掠食与一个世纪前并无不同。但在许多方面,这种冲突变得更加复杂。经过三十年的成功管理,美国的一些鲨鱼种群已经开始重建。然而,许多垂钓者认为鲨鱼捕食量的增加是管理措施造成的,声称这些措施导致了鲨鱼的 "过度繁殖 "和/或鲨鱼的学习行为。我们调查了这些因素是否可以解释所报告的捕食量的增加。根据独立于渔业的调查,无论是鲨鱼数量的增加还是鲨鱼的习得行为都不明显。然而,垂钓者努力程度的增加提供了一个不常被考虑的替代解释。虽然远非定论,但至少有四个主题从这一思考中浮现出来。首先,了解历史上捕食者的基线非常重要。第二,必须承认基线的抬升,即以前枯竭的种群正在恢复的情况。第三,重要的是要记住,在许多情况下,利益相关者的观察最初与传统的科学观察不一致,但最终被认为是填补数据空白的关键。最后,或许也是最重要的一点,就是要认识到感知到的冲突与真实的冲突同样具有影响力。可以说,捕食量是增加了还是减少了并不重要;利益相关者的普遍看法是捕食量增加了,而这正是必须解决的感知冲突(或实际冲突)。
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引用次数: 0
Catch uncertainty and recreational fishing attraction: Propositions and future research directions 渔获量的不确定性与休闲捕鱼的吸引力:建议和未来研究方向
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12837
Robert Arlinghaus
Why do people fish for recreation? Social science literature suggests that both catch (e.g., number or sizes of fish) and non‐catch dimensions (e.g., nature experience, temporary escape) play a role. After reviewing the literature from environmental psychology, neuroscience, anthropology, recreational fisher motivation research as well as popular fishing books, I find that the opposite of catching fish, more specifically the uncertainty of the catch, maybe another, perhaps fundamental force that explains the attraction of the activity to millions of people. There appears to be strong utility in the gaming nature of the activity. This quality may contribute to explain various patterns that are well known, e.g., the overinvestment of time and money by recreational fishers that drastically exceed the market value of fish, the lack of self‐regulation of a local recreational fishery in terms of effort being spent also on low stock sizes, the disutility associated with providing certain catch probability information, diminishing marginal utility return for increasing catch rates, management regulations that make fishing harder than necessary, suboptimal satisfaction despite rising catch rates, and finally the dominance of men among populations of recreational fishers. I present a serious of testable propositions and call for a novel research focus that seeks to better understand what makes catch ambiguity attractive psychologically and emotionally.
人们为什么钓鱼休闲?社会科学文献表明,渔获量(如鱼的数量或大小)和非渔获量方面(如自然体验、暂时逃避)都起着作用。在回顾了环境心理学、神经科学、人类学、休闲钓鱼动机研究以及流行钓鱼书籍等方面的文献后,我发现,与捕鱼相反的因素,更具体地说是渔获量的不确定性,也许是解释这项活动吸引数百万人的另一种也许是根本性的力量。钓鱼活动的游戏性质似乎具有很强的实用性。这种性质可能有助于解释各种众所周知的模式,例如,休闲捕鱼者投入的时间和金钱过多,大大超出了鱼的市场价值;当地休闲渔业缺乏自我调节,在低鱼量上也花费精力;提供某些渔获概率信息带来的不经济性;渔获率增加带来的边际效用回报递减;管理条例使捕鱼难度超过必要;尽管渔获率上升,但满意度却不理想;最后,男性在休闲捕鱼者群体中占主导地位。我提出了一系列可检验的命题,并呼吁开展一项新的研究,以更好地了解是什么使得渔获量的模糊性在心理和情感上具有吸引力。
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引用次数: 0
Value chain analysis of a women‐dominated wild‐caught mud crab fishery 以妇女为主的野生泥蟹渔业价值链分析
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12838
Sangeeta Mangubhai, Margaret Fox, Yashika Nand, Natalie Mason
A value chain analysis (VCA) is a cost‐effective tool to guide targeted value chain development interventions to address social wellbeing and environmental performance. Examining value chains through a gender lens can help design and implement interventions that enhance opportunities for women in the fisheries and address gender inequalities in the sector. We conducted a VCA in 2015 of the wild‐caught mud crab (Scylla serrata) fishery in Bua Province, Fiji. We found five main players involved in the selling of mud crabs – fishers, traders, retail shops, restaurants and exporters. The value chain was dominated by Indigenous (iTaukei) women fishers (88.1% of fishers) and characterised by low technological input, targeted largely for domestic markets or consumption, and with limited value‐adding activities. Although most women harvested mud crabs on a part‐time basis, it was an important source of income for most with 30% relying on it as their main livelihood. Despite being a lucrative commodity, there are several bottlenecks in the fishery – the relative informality of relationships amongst players in the value chain, the independent livelihood‐driven harvest behaviours of fishers, and opportunistic sale of products. As a result, the fishery did not meet the demands of the domestic market. Our study concluded the gendered‐skewness in the fishery increases the vulnerability of the chain to declines in economic productivity because of its reliance on irregular suppliers, and gender‐based constraints. However, the low frequency and intensity of harvesting and use of low technological harvesting methods meant the fishery was not over‐exploited and likely sustainable.
价值链分析(VCA)是一种具有成本效益的工具,可指导有针对性的价值链发展干预措施,以解决社会福利和环境绩效问题。通过性别视角审视价值链,有助于设计和实施干预措施,增加妇女在渔业中的机会,并解决该行业中的性别不平等问题。2015 年,我们对斐济布阿省的野生泥蟹(Scylla serrata)渔业进行了价值链评估。我们发现参与泥蟹销售的五个主要参与者--渔民、贸易商、零售店、餐馆和出口商。价值链的主导者是土著(iTaukei)女性渔民(占渔民总数的 88.1%),其特点是技术投入低,主要面向国内市场或消费,增值活动有限。虽然大多数妇女都是兼职捕捞泥蟹,但泥蟹是大多数妇女的重要收入来源,其中 30% 的妇女以泥蟹为主要生计。尽管泥蟹是一种利润丰厚的商品,但渔业存在几个瓶颈--价值链参与者之间的关系相对不正规,渔民的捕捞行为受独立生计的驱动,以及产品的伺机销售。因此,渔业无法满足国内市场的需求。我们的研究得出结论,渔业中的性别偏斜增加了价值链在经济生产力下降面前的脆弱性,因为它依赖于不固定的供应商和基于性别的限制。不过,捕捞频率和强度较低,而且使用的是技术含量较低的捕捞方法,这意味着渔业并没有过度开发,很可能是可持续的。
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引用次数: 0
Recreational fisheries selectively capture and harvest large predators 休闲渔业有选择地捕捉和捕捞大型食肉动物
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12839
Henrik Flink, Göran Sundblad, Juha Merilä, Petter Tibblin
Size‐ and species‐selective harvest inevitably alters the composition of targeted populations and communities. This can potentially harm fish stocks, ecosystem functionality, and related services, as evidenced in numerous commercial fisheries. The high popularity of rod‐and‐reel recreational fishing, practiced by hundreds of millions globally, raises concerns about similar deteriorating effects. Despite its prevalence, the species and size selectivity of recreational fisheries remain largely unquantified due to a lack of combined catch data and fisheries‐independent surveys. This study addresses this gap by using standardised monitoring data and over 60,000 digital angling catch reports from 62 distinct fisheries. The findings demonstrate a pronounced selectivity in recreational fisheries, targeting top predators and large individuals. Catch‐and‐release practices reduced the overall harvest by 60% but did not substantially alter this selectivity. The strong species‐ and size‐specific selectivity mirror patterns observed in other fisheries, emphasising the importance of managing the potential adverse effects of recreational fisheries selective mortality and overfishing.
对大小和物种进行选择性捕捞不可避免地会改变目标种群和群落的组成。这可能会损害鱼类种群、生态系统功能和相关服务,这在许多商业渔业中都有所体现。全球数以亿计的钓竿和钓竿休闲捕鱼活动非常流行,这引起了人们对类似恶化效应的担忧。尽管休闲渔业盛行,但由于缺乏综合渔获量数据和独立于渔业的调查,休闲渔业的物种和大小选择性在很大程度上仍未量化。本研究利用标准化监测数据和来自 62 个不同渔场的 60,000 多份数字垂钓渔获报告,弥补了这一空白。研究结果表明,休闲渔业具有明显的选择性,目标是顶级掠食者和大型个体。渔获量减少了 60%,但这种选择性并没有显著改变。针对物种和体型的强烈选择性反映了在其他渔业中观察到的模式,强调了管理休闲渔业选择性死亡和过度捕捞的潜在不利影响的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
A multi-scenario analysis of climate impacts on plankton and fish stocks in northern seas 气候对北部海域浮游生物和鱼类种群影响的多情景分析
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-18 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12834
Anne Britt Sandø, Solfrid S. Hjøllo, Cecilie Hansen, Morten D. Skogen, Robinson Hordoir, Svein Sundby

Globally, impacts of climate change display an increasingly negative development of marine biomass, but there is large regional variability. In this analysis of future climate change on stock productivity proxies for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea, we have provided calculations of accumulated directional effects as a function of climate exposure and sensitivity attributes. Based on modelled changes in physical and biogeochemical variables from three scenarios and knowledge of 13 different stocks' habitats and response to climate variations, climate exposures have been weighted, and corresponding directions these have on the stocks have been decided. SSP1-2.6 gives mostly a weak cooling in all regions with almost negligible impacts on all stocks. SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 both provide warmer conditions in the long term but are significantly different in the last 30 years of the century when the SSP5-8.5 warming is much stronger. The results show that it is the current stocks of cod and Calanus finmarchicusin the North Sea, and polar cod and capelin in the Barents Sea that will be most negatively affected by strong warming. Stocks that can migrate north into the northern seas such as hake in the Norwegian Sea, or stocks that are near the middle of the preferred temperature range such as mackerel and herring in the Norwegian Sea and cod and Calanus finmarchicus in the Barents Sea, are the winners in a warmer climate. The highly different impacts between the three scenarios show that multiple scenario studies of this kind matter.

从全球范围来看,气候变化对海洋生物量的负面影响越来越大,但区域差异很大。在这项关于未来气候变化对北海、挪威海和巴伦支海种群生产力代用指标的分析中,我们计算了作为气候暴露和敏感属性函数的累积方向性影响。根据三种情景下物理和生物地球化学变量的模拟变化,以及对 13 种不同种群的栖息地和对气候变异的反应的了解,对气候暴露进行了加权,并确定了这些影响对种群的相应方向。SSP1-2.6 给所有地区带来的主要是微弱的降温,对所有种群的影响几乎可以忽略不计。SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5 都提供了长期的变暖条件,但在本世纪的最后 30 年,SSP5-8.5 的变暖程度要强得多。研究结果表明,目前北海的鳕鱼和长须鳕种群以及巴伦支海的极地鳕鱼和毛鳞鱼种群受强变暖的负面影响最大。能够向北洄游到北部海域的种群,如挪威海的无须鳕,或接近适宜温度范围中间的种群,如挪威海的鲭鱼和鲱鱼以及巴伦支海的鳕鱼和长须鳕,则是气候变暖的赢家。三种情景之间的影响差异很大,这表明此类多重情景研究非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Projecting marine fish distributions during early life stages under future climate scenarios 预测未来气候情景下海洋鱼类早期生命阶段的分布情况
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-18 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12835
Rebecca A. Howard, Lauren A. Rogers, Kelly A. Kearney, Laura L. Vary, Lorenzo Ciannelli

Changes to Earth's climate affect organisms globally; in marine systems, these impacts are seen through warming water temperatures, ocean acidification, hypoxia and frequent marine heatwaves. These effects may lead to the movement of species to more favourable conditions. While climate-driven movement is well studied at the adult stage, how the early life stages of marine fish will respond to future variability is less clear. Many fish species are constrained by specific spawning locations or phenology. Spawning in certain locations allows for local retention of offspring, while precise timing can facilitate transport of offspring to nursery locations through seasonal circulation patterns. Our research investigates how changing oceans impact the location and timing of spawning of Bering Sea groundfishes over the next century. We used ROMS SST and SSS model output and NOAA survey data in species distribution models to hindcast and project distributions and centre of gravity for eggs and larvae of six groundfish species. Our analyses found that most of our study species exhibit flexible geography. However, the speed and direction of egg and larval movement did not track the speed and direction of their respective thermal niches. Hence, the projected distributional patterns of adult stages may be limited by their early life stages. This response is likely to be mirrored globally by other species with planktonic eggs and larvae. These results indicate that life history considerations are critical for the management of commercially important species, as effects on early life stages are strongly connected to the success or failure of adult populations.

地球气候的变化对全球生物都有影响;在海洋系统中,这些影响体现在水温升高、海洋酸化、缺氧和频繁的海洋热浪。这些影响可能导致物种向更有利的条件迁移。虽然在成鱼阶段对气候驱动的迁移进行了深入研究,但海洋鱼类的早期生命阶段将如何应对未来的变化却不太清楚。许多鱼类物种受到特定产卵地点或物候的限制。在特定地点产卵可以在当地保留后代,而精确的时间则有助于通过季节性环流模式将后代运送到育苗地点。我们的研究调查了海洋变化如何影响白令海底层鱼类下个世纪的产卵地点和时间。我们在物种分布模型中使用了 ROMS SST 和 SSS 模型输出以及 NOAA 调查数据,对六种底层鱼类的卵和幼体的分布和重心进行了后向预测和预测。我们的分析发现,我们研究的大多数物种都表现出灵活的地理特征。然而,鱼卵和幼体的移动速度和方向与其各自热环境的移动速度和方向并不一致。因此,成鱼阶段的预测分布模式可能会受到其早期生活阶段的限制。其他具有浮游卵和幼虫的物种也可能在全球范围内出现这种反应。这些结果表明,生命史因素对重要商业物种的管理至关重要,因为对早期生命阶段的影响与成鱼种群的成败密切相关。
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Fish and Fisheries
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