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Bottom-Up Interactions in State-Space Age-Structured Models Using Mass-Balance Dynamics 使用质量平衡动力学的状态-空间时代-结构模型中自下而上的相互作用
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES Pub Date : 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1111/faf.70016
James T. Thorson, Kerim Y. Aydin, Matthew L. H. Cheng, Beatriz S. Dias, David G. Kimmel, Kasper Kristensen

Age-structured models are used worldwide to regulate fisheries. These models typically ignore top-down interactions (predation affecting natural mortality) and bottom-up interactions (consumption affecting individual growth, reproduction, or survival), whereas multispecies catch-at-age models often incorporate top-down but not bottom-up interactions. While Ecopath-with-Ecosim (EwE) incorporates both top-down and bottom-up interactions along with age-structured dynamics, it is not typically fitted to age-composition data. We extend Ecostate (a state-space version of EwE) to incorporate age-structured dynamics while fitting to age-structured data and use this to illustrate how to add bottom-up interactions to age-structured models. Specifically, we add age-structured dynamics and likelihood components for age-composition and weight-at-age data while estimating residual variation in larval survival (recruitment deviations) and consumption (weight-at-age deviations). As a demonstration, we fit the model to biomass and age-composition data for two commercial species (Alaska pollock and sablefish) in the Gulf of Alaska, including population dynamics for their major prey, while not fitting weight-at-age data so that it can be used for out-of-sample evaluation of model performance. The model can be viewed as a multispecies age-structured model (e.g., estimating adult mortality rates, survey catchability and selectivity, and recruitment variation) and as a mass-balance ecosystem model (e.g., estimating trophic position and weight-at-age based on forage consumption). The predicted weight-at-age is weakly correlated with independent measurements for pollock and sablefish but was improved when we incorporated forage biomass indices. We recommend that age-structured models routinely explore the link between prey consumption and resulting size-at-age, whether using coupled predator–prey dynamics or simplifications that treat prey abundance as fixed data.

年龄结构模型在世界范围内用于管理渔业。这些模型通常忽略了自上而下的相互作用(捕食影响自然死亡率)和自下而上的相互作用(消耗影响个体生长、繁殖或生存),而多物种年龄捕获模型通常包含自上而下的相互作用,而不是自下而上的相互作用。虽然Ecopath - with - Ecosim (EwE)结合了自顶向下和自底向上的相互作用以及年龄结构动态,但它通常不适合年龄组成数据。我们扩展了Ecostate (EwE的状态空间版本),在适应年龄结构数据的同时,纳入了年龄结构动态,并用它来说明如何将自下而上的交互添加到年龄结构模型中。具体来说,我们在估算幼虫存活(招募偏差)和消耗(体重年龄偏差)的剩余变异时,为年龄组成和体重年龄数据添加了年龄结构动力学和可能性成分。作为演示,我们将模型拟合到阿拉斯加湾两种商业物种(阿拉斯加鳕鱼和貂鱼)的生物量和年龄组成数据中,包括其主要猎物的种群动态,而不拟合体重-年龄数据,以便它可以用于样本外评估模型性能。该模型可以看作是一个多物种年龄结构模型(例如,估计成年死亡率、调查可捕性和选择性以及招募变化)和一个质量平衡生态系统模型(例如,根据饲料消耗估计营养位置和年龄体重)。预测的年龄体重与鳕鱼和貂鱼的独立测量值相关性较弱,但当我们纳入饲料生物量指数时,预测的年龄体重得到了改善。我们建议年龄结构模型常规地探索猎物消耗和由此产生的年龄尺寸之间的联系,无论是使用耦合的捕食者-猎物动力学还是将猎物丰度视为固定数据的简化。
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引用次数: 0
Leveraging Earth Observation Data to Monitor Boat-Based Recreational Fishing 利用地球观测数据监测渔船休闲捕鱼
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES Pub Date : 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1111/faf.70017
Javier Menéndez-Blázquez, Mara Segovia, David March

Recreational fishing is widespread in coastal zones and exerts significant ecological, fisheries-related and socio-economic pressures. Unlike commercial fishing, small-scale recreational fleets are challenging to monitor because they lack enforced use of vessel tracking systems such as the Automatic Identification System (AIS). Recently, remote sensing technologies have emerged as promising alternatives for monitoring marine activities. Here, we assess the potential of high spatio-temporal resolution satellite imagery to monitor daily changes in recreational fishing boats during a temporal fishing ban within a marine protected area. By comparing satellite-derived boat detections with AIS records, we demonstrate that satellite data can reliably capture daily changes in recreational fishing activity missed by AIS, including a marked increase immediately following the end of the ban. These findings confirm that satellite observations can consistently detect small fishing boats and reveal their fine-scale spatio-temporal patterns. When complemented with local knowledge, this approach enhances our capacity to contribute to the spatial planning and ecosystem-based management of recreational fisheries.

休闲钓鱼在沿海地区广泛存在,并产生了巨大的生态、渔业和社会经济压力。与商业捕鱼不同,小型休闲船队由于缺乏强制使用船舶跟踪系统(如自动识别系统(AIS))而难以监控。最近,遥感技术已成为监测海洋活动的有希望的替代办法。在此,我们评估了高时空分辨率卫星图像在海洋保护区内临时禁止捕鱼期间监测休闲渔船每日变化的潜力。通过比较卫星衍生的船只探测与AIS记录,我们证明卫星数据可以可靠地捕捉到AIS错过的休闲捕鱼活动的日常变化,包括禁令结束后的显着增加。这些发现证实,卫星观测可以持续地探测到小型渔船,并揭示其精细尺度的时空格局。当与当地知识相辅相成时,这种方法可以增强我们为休闲渔业的空间规划和基于生态系统的管理做出贡献的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Putting Regional Fisheries Management Organisations' Climate Change House in Order 整顿区域渔业管理组织的气候变化事务
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1111/faf.70015
Kamal Azmi, Graham Pilling, Johann Bell, Yi-Jay Chang, Adele Dutilloy, Timothy H. Frawley, Paul Hamer, John Hampton, Quentin Hanich, Tyla Hill-Moana, Jhen Hsu, Glenn Hurry, Leyla Knittweis, Hongyu Lin, Dongqi Lu, Philipp Neubauer, Simon Nicol, Robert Scott, Inna Senina, Yang Wang, Ashley J. Williams, Fan Zhang

Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the biology, abundance and distribution of transboundary fish stocks, not only among neighbouring countries within the jurisdictions of regional fisheries management organisations (RFMOs) but also between adjacent RFMOs. Using South Pacific albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) as a case study, we highlight how RFMOs need to understand the impacts of climate change on transboundary stocks under their purview with greater certainty. We identify four areas of research that should assist RFMOs to adapt their scientific processes—strengthened understanding of changes in the biology of target stocks; enhanced collection of data to support modelling; improved modelling of catch-per-unit of effort (CPUE) to better reflect climate change impacts on stock abundance for assessments; and ensuring that scientific advice is adaptive and robust to climate change, including through implementation of tested harvest strategies. Investments in these research areas should enable RFMOs to improve the science underpinning management measures designed to sustain transboundary stocks and increase fishery performance during climate change.

气候变化不仅对区域渔业管理组织管辖范围内的邻国,而且对相邻区域渔业管理组织之间的跨界鱼类种群的生物学、丰度和分布产生重大影响。以南太平洋长鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus alalunga)为例,我们强调了区域渔业管理组织如何需要更确定地了解气候变化对其管辖范围内的跨界种群的影响。我们确定了应有助于区域渔业管理组织调整其科学进程的四个研究领域:加强对目标种群生物学变化的了解;加强数据收集以支持建模;改进了“单位努力渔获量”(CPUE)模型,以便更好地反映气候变化对鱼类丰度的影响;确保科学建议对气候变化具有适应性和健壮性,包括通过实施经过测试的收获战略。对这些研究领域的投资应使区域渔业管理组织能够改进为在气候变化期间维持跨界鱼群和提高渔业业绩而设计的管理措施的基础科学。
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引用次数: 0
Helping to Build Stock Assessment Capacity in Australia: A Case Study 帮助建立澳大利亚的库存评估能力:一个案例研究
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1111/faf.70018
Catherine Mary Dichmont, Natalie Anne Dowling, André Eric Punt, Sean Pascoe, Roy Aijun Deng, Ingrid van Putten, Jason Marc Cope

Fisheries stock assessment capacity faces resource constraints in many countries, including limited personnel, high workloads, and restricted funding. Stock assessment scientists often operate under short timelines, with outcomes that can influence livelihoods and receive public scrutiny. Scientists frequently manage multiple assessments each year, making time management a challenge. Consequently, finding opportunities to invest in professional development remains difficult within existing operational demands. We developed a series of approaches to invest in Australia's employed stock assessment capacity, and present these as a case study for other similar marine science fields and countries. The approaches led to critical insights to a way forward to develop a ‘Community of Practice’. We used network analyses to evaluate collaboration based on published Australian stock assessments and related papers. We then used surveys and interviews to understand the factors that have constrained stock assessment scientists in investing in their own development. Tools and opportunities were then made available: (a) a web site providing a central repository on freely available stock assessment packages and Australian stock assessment reports; (b) training courses on the use of assessment packages that were open to participants across organisations; and (c) a simulation game to learn in a ‘consequence free’ environment. This paper highlights what has been learnt and generalises these findings beyond the Australian stock assessment community's well-being.

在许多国家,渔业种群评估能力面临资源限制,包括人员有限、工作量大和资金有限。种群评估科学家通常在较短的时间内开展工作,其结果可能影响生计并受到公众监督。科学家们每年都要进行多次评估,这使得时间管理成为一项挑战。因此,在现有业务需求范围内寻找投资专业发展的机会仍然很困难。我们开发了一系列方法来投资澳大利亚的就业种群评估能力,并将这些方法作为其他类似海洋科学领域和国家的案例研究。这些方法为发展“实践社区”提供了重要的见解。我们使用网络分析来评估基于已发表的澳大利亚股票评估和相关论文的合作。然后,我们使用调查和访谈来了解限制存量评估科学家投资于自身发展的因素。然后提供了工具和机会:(a)一个网站,提供免费提供的鱼类评估资料包和澳大利亚鱼类评估报告的中央储存库;(b)向各组织的参与者开放的关于使用评估包的培训课程;(c)在“无后果”环境中学习的模拟游戏。本文强调了已经学到的东西,并将这些发现推广到澳大利亚股票评估社区的福祉之外。
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引用次数: 0
Making the Most of Available Data: A Case Study of Converging Analyses to Model an Emerging Fishery for Jonah Crab (Cancer borealis) 充分利用现有数据:对新兴约拿蟹(北方巨蟹座)渔业进行融合分析的案例研究
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1111/faf.70011
Ruby Krasnow, Les Kaufman, Ethan Deyle

Targeted fishing of Jonah crabs (Cancer borealis) has greatly intensified in recent decades as lobster populations have declined, forcing fishermen to shift their focus to Jonah and other crab species. Effective management of this developing fishery is limited, however, by a lack of information on their life history traits, abundance and distribution. The long-term sustainability of the fishery depends upon near-term efforts to maximise the value of existing data sources to assess species abundance and inform management. We applied three distinct modelling approaches—traditional linear regression, generalised additive models and empirical dynamic modelling—to data from the Maine–New Hampshire Inshore Trawl Survey to validate hypotheses about Jonah crab distribution and migration earlier derived from interviews with fishermen. There was strong agreement between the information reported by fishermen and the survey data, including depth preferences, seasonal inshore–offshore movements and sex-specific migration patterns. This study demonstrates that rather than simply deploying a multi-modal approach with model selection or averaging, employing a complement of statistical methods convergently and interfacing with engaged social science can better capitalise on limited fishery-independent data to support the development of sustainable management frameworks for emerging fisheries.

近几十年来,随着龙虾数量的减少,对约拿蟹(北方巨蟹)的针对性捕捞大大加强,迫使渔民将重点转移到约拿蟹和其他螃蟹物种上。然而,由于缺乏关于它们的生活史特征、数量和分布的资料,对这种发展中的渔业的有效管理受到限制。渔业的长期可持续性取决于近期努力最大限度地利用现有数据来源的价值,以评估物种丰度并为管理提供信息。我们应用了三种不同的建模方法——传统的线性回归、广义相加模型和经验动态模型——对缅因州-新罕布什尔州近海拖网调查的数据进行建模,以验证早前从渔民访谈中得出的关于约纳蟹分布和迁移的假设。渔民报告的信息与调查数据之间有很强的一致性,包括深度偏好、季节性近海移动和性别特定的迁移模式。这项研究表明,与其简单地采用多模式方法进行模型选择或平均,不如采用统计方法的补充,并与相关的社会科学相结合,可以更好地利用有限的渔业独立数据,以支持新兴渔业可持续管理框架的发展。
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引用次数: 0
From Data Deficient to Big Data in Shark Conservation 鲨鱼保护从数据不足到大数据
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1111/faf.70006
F. Ferretti, J. Jenrette, S. Moro, C. Butner, E. Fox, S. H. D. Haddock, S. J. Jorgensen, T. Hastie, F. Micheli

Citizen science is increasingly harnessed worldwide to gather data otherwise requiring a prohibitive investment of funding and time. Meanwhile, the revolution in digital communication offers opportunities from crowdsourcing, big data approaches and social network mining to quickly and cost-effectively fill major gaps in knowledge necessary to protect endangered populations. Sharks are among the most endangered and data-poor vertebrates in the ocean. Mainly due to overfishing, many shark populations are declining worldwide, while most species lack basic abundance, distribution and life-history data. Hence, filling knowledge gaps across taxa, ecosystems, and regions is urgently needed to increase our understanding of their ecology, develop effective conservation actions and reverse their loss. Here, we introduce a novel citizen science and crowdsourcing approach for conservation through sharkPulse, a new platform automating data ingestion and organisation to build the largest database of shark occurrence records to date. Designed to complement and extend similar biodiversity monitoring tools relying heavily on user submissions, sharkPulse aims to source large streams of online shark images and transform them into occurrence records, filling knowledge gaps in shark ecology and biology. This platform offers a blueprint to leverage AI and big data approaches, social network data mining and participatory science to efficiently and continuously source visual media materials and transform the monitoring of data-limited marine and terrestrial animal populations.

公民科学越来越多地在世界范围内被用来收集数据,否则需要投入令人望而却步的资金和时间。与此同时,数字通信革命为众包、大数据方法和社交网络挖掘提供了机会,可以快速、经济有效地填补保护濒危种群所需知识的重大空白。鲨鱼是海洋中最濒危和数据最贫乏的脊椎动物之一。由于过度捕捞,世界范围内许多鲨鱼的数量正在下降,而大多数物种缺乏基本的丰度、分布和生活史数据。因此,迫切需要填补不同分类群、生态系统和区域之间的知识空白,以提高我们对其生态的认识,制定有效的保护行动,扭转其损失。在这里,我们介绍了一种新的公民科学和众包保护方法,通过sharkPulse,一个自动化数据摄取和组织的新平台,建立迄今为止最大的鲨鱼发生记录数据库。sharkPulse旨在补充和扩展严重依赖用户提交的类似生物多样性监测工具,旨在获取大量在线鲨鱼图像流并将其转换为发生记录,填补鲨鱼生态学和生物学的知识空白。该平台提供了一个蓝图,利用人工智能和大数据方法、社交网络数据挖掘和参与式科学,有效和持续地获取视觉媒体材料,并改变对数据有限的海洋和陆地动物种群的监测。
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引用次数: 0
Conceptualisation and Assessment of Inequality in Small-Scale Fisheries 小规模渔业不平等的概念化和评估
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES Pub Date : 2025-08-10 DOI: 10.1111/faf.70014
L. Nahuelhual, G. Saavedra, V. Pizarro, J. Barriga Parra, G. Blanco, R. Estévez, S. Gelcich, M. Libuy, N. I. Segovia

This review analyses 73 peer-reviewed publications using a combined qualitative and quantitative approach to examine how inequality in small-scale fisheries is conceptualised, which drivers are most frequently identified, how they manifest, and how proposed interventions address them. The literature shows some conceptual overlap among terms such as ‘inequality’, ‘inequity’, ‘unfairness’ or ‘injustice’, which may reflect both interdisciplinary diversity and the fact that inequality is often addressed indirectly through broader frameworks (e.g., poverty; governance). Social and regulatory dimensions of inequality—particularly sex/gender exclusion and policy implementation—were the most frequently studied, while technological, environmental and conservation-related dimensions were addressed less frequently. Most studies focused on the extraction stage, with fewer addressing inequalities along downstream segments of the value chain. The results reveal that inequality drivers co-occur in patterned configurations reflecting broader structural dynamics (e.g., the interplay between gender exclusion, market barriers and inequitable policy implementation in coastal fisheries) and intersectionality (e.g., indigenous women fishers facing simultaneous exclusion based on gender, ethnicity and lack of access to formal governance or financial systems). However, proposed interventions to address the problem seem insufficiently aligned with the specific drivers they aim to address. These patterns reflect the complexity of addressing inequality in SSF: while the issue is widely acknowledged, it is often approached through fragmented terms and disconnected responses. Making progress may require not more consensus, but more precision—in how inequality is described, situated and acted upon.

本综述采用定性和定量相结合的方法分析了73篇同行评议的出版物,以研究小规模渔业中的不平等是如何概念化的,哪些驱动因素最常被发现,它们是如何表现的,以及拟议的干预措施如何解决这些问题。文献显示,“不平等”、“不平等”、“不公平”或“不公正”等术语之间存在一些概念重叠,这可能反映了跨学科的多样性,也反映了不平等通常通过更广泛的框架(例如贫困;治理)。不平等的社会和监管层面——特别是性别/性别排斥和政策实施——是最常被研究的,而技术、环境和保护相关方面的研究较少。大多数研究集中在提取阶段,较少涉及价值链下游环节的不平等。结果表明,不平等驱动因素在模式配置中共同发生,反映了更广泛的结构动态(例如,沿海渔业中性别排斥、市场壁垒和不公平政策实施之间的相互作用)和交叉性(例如,土著女渔民同时面临基于性别、种族和缺乏正式治理或金融体系的排斥)。然而,为解决这一问题而提出的干预措施似乎与它们旨在解决的具体驱动因素不够一致。这些模式反映了在社会保障基金中解决不平等问题的复杂性:虽然这个问题得到了广泛承认,但它往往是通过支离破碎的术语和不连贯的回应来处理的。取得进展可能不需要更多的共识,而需要在如何描述、定位和采取行动方面更加精确。
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引用次数: 0
Using Machine Learning to Inform Harvest Control Rule Design in Complex Fishery Settings 利用机器学习为复杂渔业环境中的收获控制规则设计提供信息
IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1111/faf.70013
Felipe Montealegre-Mora, Carl Boettiger, Carl J. Walters, Christopher L. Cahill

In fishery science, harvest management of size-structured stochastic populations is a long-standing and difficult problem. Rectilinear precautionary policies based on biomass and harvesting reference points now represent a standard approach to this problem. While these standard feedback policies are based on analytical or dynamic programming solutions assuming relatively simple ecological dynamics, they are often applied to more complicated ecological settings in the real world. In this paper, we explore the problem of designing harvest control rules for partially observed, age-structured, spasmodic fish populations using tools from reinforcement learning (RL) and Bayesian optimisation. Our focus is on the case of Walleye fisheries in Alberta, Canada, whose populations display variable recruitment dynamics. We optimised and evaluated policies using several complementary performance metrics representing key trade-offs in harvest management. The main questions we addressed were: (1) How do standard policies based on reference points perform relative to numerically optimised policies? (2) Can an observation of mean fish weight, in addition to stock biomass, aid in policy decisions?

在渔业科学中,大小结构随机种群的收获管理是一个长期存在的难题。基于生物量和收获参考点的直线预防政策现在是解决这一问题的标准办法。虽然这些标准反馈策略基于分析或动态规划解决方案,假设相对简单的生态动态,但它们通常应用于现实世界中更复杂的生态环境。在本文中,我们探讨了利用强化学习(RL)和贝叶斯优化的工具,为部分观察到的、年龄结构的、痉挛的鱼类种群设计捕捞控制规则的问题。我们的重点是在加拿大阿尔伯塔省的瓦利眼渔业的情况下,其人口表现出可变的招聘动态。我们使用代表收获管理中的关键权衡的几个互补性能指标来优化和评估策略。我们解决的主要问题是:(1)相对于数字优化的策略,基于参考点的标准策略如何执行?(2)除了种群生物量外,对平均鱼重的观察是否有助于决策?
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引用次数: 0
The U.S. Ecosystem‐Based Fisheries Management Policy and Road Map: Assessing Progress and Applying Lessons Learned 美国基于生态系统的渔业管理政策和路线图:评估进展和应用经验教训
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1111/faf.70012
Chris J. Harvey, Yvonne L. deReynier, Wendy E. Morrison, Jennifer L. Cudney, Dorothy M. Dick, Travis Ford, Karla Gore, Jamison M. Gove, Elliott L. Hazen, Jerome M. Hermsen, Keith Kamikawa, Mandy Karnauskas, Scott I. Large, Savannah Lewis, Tyler C. Loughran, Sean M. Lucey, Stephanie A. Oakes, Jay O. Peterson, Jodi L. Pirtle, Tauna L. Rankin, Heather Sagar, Jameal F. Samhouri, Elizabeth Siddon, Helen Takade‐Heumacher, Katie Zanowicz, Jason S. Link
The need for ecosystem‐based fisheries management (EBFM) is growing more urgent as environmental changes, species shifts, new ocean uses, and other factors force oceans toward novel states. In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA Fisheries) developed an EBFM Policy in 2016, accompanied by a Road Map of 49 action items, to support marine ecosystem‐based management and conservation of fisheries, habitats, and protected species under U.S. federal jurisdiction. In 2024, NOAA Fisheries updated its EBFM Policy and Road Map and formed a team of science and policy experts to review progress and derive lessons learned during the first Road Map iteration. Four key lessons emerged: (1) progress toward EBFM in the U.S. has been substantial; (2) greater coordination could further enhance progress; (3) more effort is required to link science to management activities; and (4) human dimensions need greater integration throughout EBFM implementation. Enabling factors for progress on the Road Map included: champions at both the leadership and staff levels; use of participatory processes; motivation driven by ecosystem shocks and threats; and leveraging existing processes and frameworks. The updated EBFM Road Map supports historic and ongoing efforts to implement U.S. laws through improved coordination, integration, and knowledge exchange and can help to address many urgent challenges facing U.S. marine fisheries, habitats, and protected resources.
随着环境变化、物种转移、新的海洋利用和其他因素迫使海洋走向新的状态,对基于生态系统的渔业管理(EBFM)的需求日益迫切。在美国,国家海洋和大气管理局的国家海洋渔业局(NOAA Fisheries)于2016年制定了EBFM政策,并附有包含49个行动项目的路线图,以支持基于海洋生态系统的管理和保护美国联邦管辖下的渔业、栖息地和受保护物种。2024年,NOAA渔业更新了EBFM政策和路线图,并组建了一个科学和政策专家团队,以审查进展情况,并在第一次路线图迭代中吸取教训。总结了四个关键经验:(1)美国在EBFM方面取得了实质性进展;(2)加强协调可以进一步促进进展;(3)将科学与管理活动联系起来需要更多的努力;(4)在整个EBFM实施过程中,需要更好地整合人的维度。推动路线图取得进展的因素包括:领导和员工层面的拥护者;使用参与性程序;由生态系统冲击和威胁驱动的动机;并利用现有的流程和框架。更新后的EBFM路线图支持通过改进协调、整合和知识交流来实施美国法律的历史性和持续性努力,并有助于解决美国海洋渔业、栖息地和受保护资源面临的许多紧迫挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating Time‐Varying Productivity and Reference Points: A Case of North Sea Demersal Fish Stocks 估算随时间变化的生产力和参考点:以北海底栖鱼类为例
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES Pub Date : 2025-07-13 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12910
Tobias K. Mildenberger, Casper W. Berg, Alexander Kempf, Anna Rindorf, Alec D. MacCall, Marc H. Taylor
The productivity of marine fish populations determines both maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and resilience to exploitation. While biological reference points like MSY and depend on species traits and population density, they are also influenced by environmental variability and ecological interactions. However, commonly used models, such as stock–recruitment and surplus production models (SPMs), often assume constant productivity and reference points over time, potentially overlooking important ecosystem changes. We conducted a semi‐systematic literature review to identify covariate‐free approaches for modelling time‐varying productivity in marine populations. Based on this, we developed a continuous‐time stochastic SPM framework that allows both the intrinsic growth rate () and carrying capacity () to vary and co‐vary over time. Simulation experiments showed that time‐varying models, especially those with correlated changes in and , significantly improved estimation accuracy while retaining robust convergence. As a case study, we applied this model to seven commercially important demersal fish stocks in the North Sea. Results revealed a 56% average decline in MSY over four decades, with roundfish showing greater declines than flatfish. Temporal patterns in productivity correlated with environmental variables such as bottom temperature and salinity, indicating potential drivers. Our findings provide evidence of long‐term productivity declines in North Sea demersal stocks and offer a covariate‐free method for reconstructing historical reference points. This work underscores the need for adaptive management strategies that account for shifting productivity regimes under ongoing environmental change.
海洋鱼类种群的生产力决定了最大可持续产量(MSY)和对开发利用的复原力。虽然MSY和MSY等生物参考点取决于物种特征和种群密度,但它们也受到环境变异性和生态相互作用的影响。然而,通常使用的模型,例如库存招募和剩余生产模型(SPMs),通常假设随着时间的推移生产率和参考点不变,潜在地忽略了重要的生态系统变化。我们进行了一项半系统的文献综述,以确定无协变量的方法来模拟海洋种群的时变生产力。在此基础上,我们开发了一个连续时间随机SPM框架,允许内在增长率()和承载能力()随时间变化和共变。仿真实验表明,时变模型,特别是具有和相关变化的时变模型,在保持鲁棒收敛性的同时显著提高了估计精度。作为一个案例研究,我们将该模型应用于北海七种商业上重要的底栖鱼类种群。结果显示,在过去的40年里,MSY平均下降了56%,其中圆鱼的下降幅度大于比目鱼。生产力的时间模式与海底温度和盐度等环境变量相关,表明了潜在的驱动因素。我们的研究结果为北海海底种群的长期生产力下降提供了证据,并为重建历史参考点提供了一种无协变量的方法。这项工作强调了适应性管理战略的必要性,这些战略应考虑到在持续的环境变化下不断变化的生产力制度。
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引用次数: 0
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Fish and Fisheries
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