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The New Panama Canal in a Global Context (Presentation Slides) 全球背景下的新巴拿马运河(幻灯片)
Pub Date : 2015-06-11 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2827756
Herman L. Boschken
A presentation of the new Panama Canal (opening in 2016) in the context of global economic change, containerized shipping technologies and a worldwide multi-modal shipping system. Five determinants are identified to assess the prospects of Panamanian centrality in global shipping over the coming decades.
在全球经济变化、集装箱运输技术和全球多式联运系统的背景下,介绍新巴拿马运河(2016年开放)。确定了五个决定因素,以评估巴拿马在未来几十年全球航运中心地位的前景。
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引用次数: 0
From Hungry Kya? To Hunger Kya? Revisiting Hunger in South Asia 来自Hungry Kya?致饥饿科亚?重新审视南亚的饥饿问题
Pub Date : 2015-05-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2604918
Shalu Nigam
Hungry Kya? (Are you Hungry?) This wide spread pseudo language phrase has been floating around in electronic, print and digital media besides being projected on bill boards across South Asia. The advertiser while using this phrase along with the image of a slice of a pizza invites the attention of a section of population to the culture of consumption. However, this symbol of modernity strongly contradicts with the images from the other part of the continent which is starving and dying of hunger. Recently, I came across the Report on the Global Hunger Index (GHI) 2014 which scrutinized the state of hunger in 120 countries. On the basis of multidimensional statistical analysis, it claims that 55 of these countries are in abysmal conditions with respect to hunger. The report estimates that 805 millions are suffering from chronic hunger while 2 billion people are afflicted with hidden hunger, that is, the deficiency of micronutrients, all over the world. According to this report, the continents of Africa and South Asia have the highest level of hunger. The GHI ranks India at 55th position, Bangladesh and Pakistan at 57th position, Nepal at 44th and Sri Lanka at 39th position. In this context when I see this tagline Hungry Kya?, I feel the urge of reframing it to Hunger Kya Hai? (What is hunger from the perspective of a hungry person?) Hungry kaun? (Who are Hungry?) Hungry Kyun aur Kaise? (Why and how hunger persists in South Asia in spite of accelerating economic growth?) In this article, I attempt to look at the microcosmic reality and macrocosmic facts relating to hunger in South Asia.
饿Kya吗?(你饿了吗?)这个广泛传播的伪语言短语除了被投射在南亚的广告牌上外,还在电子、印刷和数字媒体上流传。广告商在使用这句话和一片披萨的图片时,引起了一部分人对消费文化的关注。然而,这一现代性的象征与来自非洲大陆另一部分的饥饿和垂死的形象强烈矛盾。最近,我看到了《2014年全球饥饿指数报告》,该报告详细分析了120个国家的饥饿状况。在多维统计分析的基础上,它声称其中55个国家在饥饿方面处于极端状况。该报告估计,全世界有8.05亿人遭受长期饥饿,20亿人遭受隐性饥饿,即缺乏微量营养素。根据这份报告,非洲和南亚大陆的饥饿水平最高。全球健康指数将印度排在第55位,孟加拉国和巴基斯坦排在第57位,尼泊尔排在第44位,斯里兰卡排在第39位。在这种情况下,当我看到这个标语时,饿了吗?,我有一种想把它改编成《饥饿的嘉海》的冲动。(从一个饥饿的人的角度来看,什么是饥饿?)饿kaun吗?(谁饿了?)饥饿的Kyun或Kaise?(尽管南亚经济增长加速,但饥饿为何以及如何持续?)在这篇文章中,我试图看看与南亚饥饿有关的微观现实和宏观事实。
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引用次数: 0
Neighborhood Sanitation and Infant Mortality 社区卫生和婴儿死亡率
Pub Date : 2015-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2605479
M. Geruso, Dean Spears
In this paper, we shed new light on a long-standing puzzle: In India, Muslim children are substantially more likely than Hindu children to survive to their first birthday, even though Indian Muslims have lower wealth, consumption, educational attainment, and access to state services. Contrary to the prior literature, we show that the observed mortality advantage accrues not to Muslim households themselves but rather to their neighbors, who are also likely to be Muslim. Investigating mechanisms, we provide a collage of evidence suggesting externalities due to poor sanitation are a channel linking the religious composition of neighborhoods to infant mortality.
在本文中,我们为一个长期存在的谜团提供了新的线索:在印度,穆斯林儿童比印度教儿童更有可能活到一岁,尽管印度穆斯林的财富、消费、受教育程度和获得国家服务的机会都较低。与先前的文献相反,我们表明,观察到的死亡率优势不是穆斯林家庭本身,而是他们的邻居,他们也可能是穆斯林。在调查机制方面,我们提供了一系列证据,表明卫生条件差造成的外部性是将社区宗教构成与婴儿死亡率联系起来的一个渠道。
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引用次数: 150
Persian Hegemony Once – Iranian Hegemony Now? 曾经的波斯霸权-现在的伊朗霸权?
Pub Date : 2015-03-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2593289
Sarah Schiesz
The Islamic Republic of Iran hegemon strategy is a clear and present danger to the Middle East; the strategy exacerbates ethnic and sectarian tensions and poses a danger of nuclear proliferation in the region. This analysis traces the roots of the Islamic Republic of Iran strategy as driven by Shiite religious imperatives and Iranian national interests. Two recent events, the resultant chaos from the Arab Spring and the new U.S. policy of disengagement from the Middle East changed the Middle East geostrategic environment; the residual consequences of the Arab Spring produced new threats to Iranian security and the United States progressive disengagement altered the regional strategic calculus. Iran adapted to the evolving environment to achieve major strategic advantages. Iran achieved increased political influence in countries flanking Saudi Arabia, gained additional leverage in the nuclear negotiations with the U.S., and deployed Iranian military forces outside Iran in a de facto sectarian war. The primary conclusion is Iran has effectively used the U.S. disengagement policy and localized vulnerabilities, which emerged in the Arab Spring chaos, to seize increased Iranian political and military freedom of action in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
伊朗伊斯兰共和国的霸权战略对中东来说是一个明显而现实的危险;这一战略加剧了种族和宗派之间的紧张关系,并造成了该地区核扩散的危险。这一分析追溯了伊朗伊斯兰共和国战略的根源,该战略受到什叶派宗教需求和伊朗国家利益的驱动。最近发生的两件事,阿拉伯之春引发的混乱和美国从中东撤军的新政策改变了中东的地缘战略环境;阿拉伯之春的残余后果给伊朗的安全带来了新的威胁,而美国逐渐脱离接触改变了该地区的战略考量。伊朗适应了不断变化的环境,取得了重大战略优势。伊朗在沙特阿拉伯周边国家获得了更大的政治影响力,在与美国的核谈判中获得了额外的杠杆作用,并在一场事实上的宗派战争中在伊朗境外部署了伊朗军队。主要结论是,伊朗有效地利用了美国的脱离接触政策和在阿拉伯之春混乱中出现的局部脆弱性,抓住了伊朗在伊拉克、叙利亚、黎巴嫩和也门增加的政治和军事行动自由。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the Relationships of Indonesian Tourism Demand and Three Favorite International Destinations in South East Asia 印尼旅游需求与东南亚三大热门国际旅游目的地关系分析
Pub Date : 2015-03-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2806563
Sita deliyana Firmialy, Deddy P. Koesrindartoto
This paper aim to determine the relationship of tourism growth in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand to Indonesia. Firstly, the paper performed bivariate and multivariate analysis on each country measured. Secondly, the paper performed a non-parametrical approach to evaluate which combination of tourists movement gave the highest contribution to Indonesia’s tourist arrival. The estimated multivariate model explain the relationship between variables more clearly compared than the other estimated model (R-square > 90%). Malaysia’s and Singapore’s growth in tourists arrival gave effect to the growth in Indonesia, in the long run and short run. However, Thailand’s growth of tourists arrival has only given significant effect to Indonesia’s growth of tourist arrival in the short run. The reverse analysis conducted later on this paper, suggest that Indonesia’s growth in tourists arrival itself gave significant effect to the growth of tourists arrival in Malaysia and Thailand, in the long run and short run as well. However, Indonesia’s growth of tourists arrival only gave an effect toward Singapore in the short run. There’s no evidence of Indonesia’s growth affected Singapore in the long run. Lastly findings of this paper confirmed that compared to the other observed tourists movements, the highest odds percentage of people come to Indonesia obtained from international tourists who visited Malaysia and Singapore, and as for the international tourists who travel from their home country to visited Malaysia, the odds of them to come to Indonesia appear to be the lowest.
本文旨在确定马来西亚、新加坡和泰国的旅游业增长与印度尼西亚的关系。首先,本文对每个测量国家进行了双变量和多变量分析。其次,本文采用非参数方法来评估哪种游客运动组合对印度尼西亚游客到达的贡献最大。估计的多变量模型比其他估计模型更清楚地解释了变量之间的关系(r平方> 90%)。从长期和短期来看,马来西亚和新加坡游客数量的增长对印尼的增长产生了影响。然而,泰国游客数量的增长只在短期内对印尼游客数量的增长产生了显著的影响。本文后面进行的反向分析表明,印度尼西亚的游客到达的增长本身对马来西亚和泰国的游客到达的增长产生了显著的影响,在长期和短期也是如此。然而,印尼游客数量的增长只在短期内对新加坡产生了影响。从长远来看,没有证据表明印尼的经济增长影响了新加坡。最后,本文的研究结果证实,与其他观察到的游客运动相比,访问马来西亚和新加坡的国际游客来印度尼西亚的几率最高,而对于从本国旅行到马来西亚的国际游客来说,他们来印度尼西亚的几率似乎最低。
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引用次数: 0
Moving Up or Falling Behind? Intergenerational Socioeconomic Progress among Children of Norwegian Immigrants 进步还是落后?挪威移民子女的代际社会经济进步
Pub Date : 2015-02-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2567211
A. Hermansen
Using Norwegian registry data, I study intergenerational social mobility in educational attainment and adult earnings among children of immigrants. I find that the degree of intergenerational persistence is slightly weaker among immigrants than in the native population. This indicates higher rates of social mobility among the children of immigrants. Generational progress is also reflected in strongly reduced native-immigrant gaps in completed education and earnings among the immigrant offspring compared to the gaps found in the parental generation. The level of intergenerational catch-up is highest within the national-origin groups characterised by the lowest parental statuses. I also find that children of immigrants achieve higher educational attainment and earnings as adults when compared to children of natives with similar socioeconomic family background and neighbourhood of residence in adolescence. The role of neighbourhood environments appears to be of relatively minor importance for the native-immigrant gaps in socioeconomic attainment. In sum, these results suggest substantial intergenerational convergence in socioeconomic life chances between the children of immigrants and the children of the native born in Norway.
利用挪威的登记数据,我研究了移民子女在教育程度和成年收入方面的代际社会流动性。我发现,在移民群体中,代际持续的程度略弱于本土人群。这表明移民子女的社会流动性更高。与父辈的差距相比,移民后代在完成教育和收入方面的本土移民差距大大缩小,这也反映了代际进步。在父母地位最低的民族血统群体中,代际追赶的水平最高。我还发现,与具有相似社会经济家庭背景和居住地的本地人的孩子相比,移民的孩子在成年后获得了更高的教育程度和收入。对于本地移民在社会经济成就方面的差距,邻里环境的作用似乎相对次要。总而言之,这些结果表明,移民子女和挪威本土出生的子女在社会经济生活机会方面存在实质性的代际趋同。
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引用次数: 0
How Does Foreign Demand Activate Domestic Value Added? A Comparison Among the Largest Euro-Area Economies 外需如何激活国内增加值?欧元区最大经济体的比较
Pub Date : 2015-01-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2598066
Rita Cappariello, Alberto Felettigh
We propose an analysis for the largest euro-area countries (France, Germany, Italy and Spain), based on the framework developed by Koopman et al. (2014) for tracing value added in a country’s exports by source and use. We integrate their approach by introducing an additional dimension: the domestic-sector origin of value added embodied in exports. While providing an accurate picture of these countries’ participation in global value chains, we estimate the impact on their GDP of a shock to foreign demand and disentangle individual contributions along a geographical dimension in a period running from the introduction of the euro to the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis.
根据Koopman等人(2014)开发的框架,我们建议对最大的欧元区国家(法国、德国、意大利和西班牙)进行分析,该框架用于按来源和用途追踪一国出口中的增加值。我们通过引入一个额外的维度来整合他们的方法:体现在出口中的增加值的国内部门来源。在提供这些国家参与全球价值链的准确图景的同时,我们估计了外国需求冲击对其GDP的影响,并在引入欧元到主权债务危机开始的一段时间内,沿着地理维度理清了个人贡献。
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引用次数: 51
Inclusive Growth Through Village Level Entrepreneurs: A Case Study of Khidmat Centres in Jammu and Kashmir 通过村级企业家实现包容性增长:查谟和克什米尔Khidmat中心的案例研究
Pub Date : 2015-01-22 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2583575
Saif Siddiqui, Sumaira Jan
Economic survey 2013-14 published by the government of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) provides that of the total population of 1.25 Crores, 24.21 Lakh are below the poverty line. This includes even those people who are financially excluded. Government of India in the year 2010 made it mandatory for banks to bring the unbanked and the under-banked section of the society under the fold of a bank to make them financially ‘included’. In J & K, the responsibility of the same was given to the Jammu and Kashmir bank Ltd. It initiated the process of financial inclusion by putting business correspondents which they call as Khidmat Centres in place. As per annual report of the bank (2013-14), 697 Khidmat Centres are operational in J & K, covering 2,572 villages and 12.18 lakh accounts have been opened. This case study aims to demonstrate the role these Khidmat Centres are playing in the financial inclusion plan of the bank. It further does a reality check based on a primary survey. Analysis reveals that the services and products on offer, have not yet been completely provided to the concerned people. This plan has still a long way to go to prove to be successful in bringing the unbanked and the under-banked under the fold of the bank.
查谟和克什米尔政府公布的2013-14年经济调查显示,在总人口1.25亿人中,有242.1万人生活在贫困线以下。这甚至包括那些在经济上被排斥的人。印度政府在2010年强制要求银行将社会中没有银行账户和银行服务不足的部分纳入银行的范围,以使他们在财务上“包括”。在查谟和克什米尔,同样的责任被赋予了查谟和克什米尔银行有限公司。它启动了金融包容性的进程,设立了商业通讯员,他们称之为Khidmat中心。根据该银行的年度报告(2013-14年),在查谟邦有697个Khidmat中心在运营,覆盖2572个村庄,开设了121.8万个账户。本案例研究旨在展示这些Khidmat中心在世行普惠金融计划中发挥的作用。它进一步根据初步调查进行现实检查。分析表明,所提供的服务和产品,尚未完全提供给有关人士。要证明这项计划成功地将没有银行账户和银行账户不足的人纳入银行的范围,还有很长的路要走。
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引用次数: 1
Supplemental Thoughts About Revenue from Marijuana in Vermont 关于佛蒙特州大麻收入的补充思考
Pub Date : 2015-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2551029
Pat Oglesby
This document is a supplement to a study by the RAND Corporation for Vermont. It represents the views of the author alone, and not of RAND or of the study's other co-authors.It looks at several issues associated with marijuana revenue. First, who might get a break on marijuana taxes? Possibilities include medical card holders, home growers, buyers of favored products, growers that use natural sunlight, and small or large businesses. Second, how much tax can the marijuana market eventually bear? Third, who pays marijuana taxes – (what is the collection point?) – for three possible tax bases, weight, price, and THC potency? Fourth, what other issues might loom?
这份文件是兰德公司对佛蒙特州的一项研究的补充。它仅代表作者的观点,而不代表兰德公司或该研究的其他合著者的观点。它着眼于与大麻收入相关的几个问题。首先,谁可能在大麻税上获得减免?可能包括医疗卡持有人、家庭种植者、优惠产品的买家、使用自然阳光的种植者以及小型或大型企业。第二,大麻市场最终能承受多少税收?第三,谁为三种可能的税基——重量、价格和THC效力——支付大麻税(收税点在哪里?)第四,还可能出现哪些问题?
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引用次数: 3
The Dynamycs of the Volume and Structure of Interest on the Public Debt of the Republic of Serbia (Динамика Обима и Структуре Камата На Јавни Дуг Републике Србије)
Pub Date : 2014-12-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2561826
Dragana R. Petković, Jadranka Djurovic Todorovic, Ljiljana Prole
English Abstract: This paper analyses the fluctuation of interest on the public debt, as one of the oldest kinds of transfers which is closely related to the indebtedness of the state. The analysis of the expenditure dynamics for interest on public debt covers the period between 2003 and 2013. The goal of this research is to point out the efficiency of the activity of the economic policy within the analyzed period based on the relative changes in the transfer volume and the structure of the interest repayment, as well as to make certain projections for the future. Based on the analysis conducted, it was concluded that the fall of economic activity in 2009 had a significant effect on debt, which caused a drastic increase of the interest repayment transfers in the following years. Serbian Abstract: У овом раду се анализира кретање камата на јавни дуг, као једне од најстаријих врста трансфера која је уско повезана са задуживањем државе. Анализа динамике расхода за камате на јавни дуг покрива период од 2003. године до 2013. године. Циљ истраживања у овом раду јесте да се на основу релативних промена, како у обиму трансфера на име отплате камата, тако и у њиховој структуру, али и пројекција за будући период, укаже на ефикасност активности економске политике у анализираном периоду. На основу спроведених анализа закључено је да је пад економске активности у 2009. години имао значајног ефекта на задуживање, што је условило драстично повећање трансфера на име отплате камата у годинама које следе.
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引用次数: 0
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Culture Area Studies eJournal
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