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Pitfalls in scenario planning 场景规划中的陷阱
Pub Date : 1999-10-01 DOI: 10.1108/EUM0000000006712
T. Kippenberger
Lists 20 common pitfalls regarding scenario planning and divides them into 2 parts: process; and content. Uses a shaded box to highlight other things to watch out for — these number 7 in total. Concludes the list is a very valid one and should be taken note of.
列出了关于场景规划的20个常见陷阱,并将其分为两部分:过程;和内容。使用阴影框突出显示其他需要注意的事情-总共有7个。结论这个列表是非常有效的,应该被注意到。
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引用次数: 4
Man‐made disasters: the failure of foresight 人为灾难:预见的失败
Pub Date : 1999-08-01 DOI: 10.1108/EUM0000000005431
T. Kippenberger
Investigates the stages that precede a disaster, switching the emphasis from the role of the emergency services to the responsibilities of management. Investigates three UK disasters: the collapsing colliery tip at the Welsh village of Aberfan in 1966; a collision at an automatic railway crossing at Hixon in England in 1968, between a large road transporter, carrying a transformer, and a train; and a fire at Summerland holiday leisure complex on the Isle of Man — all these events included large loss of life. Concludes that in modern times disasters arising from unknown or unsuspected sources are very rare but depend on information being correctly assessed.
调查灾难发生前的各个阶段,将重点从应急服务的作用转向管理的责任。调查了英国的三起灾难:1966年威尔士阿伯凡村煤矿坍塌;1968年,在英国希克森的自动铁路道口,一辆载有变压器的大型公路运输车与一列火车相撞;以及马恩岛Summerland度假休闲中心的火灾——所有这些事件都造成了大量人员伤亡。结论是,在现代,由未知或未怀疑的来源引起的灾难非常罕见,但取决于对信息的正确评估。
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引用次数: 17
How crises unfold 危机如何展开
Pub Date : 1999-08-01 DOI: 10.1108/EUM0000000006694
T. Kippenberger
Seeks to develop understanding of how to avert, or manage and recover from, crises. Tries to widen the view to include other management failures that can result in corporate demise, e.g. through a sudden loss of market share. Highlights three crisis phrases: crisis of management; crisis point; and crisis fall‐out. Concludes a way of identifying crisis‐prone organizations must be found — although rising managerial awareness of the issues should help — complacency among senior managers remains the biggest danger.
寻求发展对如何避免或管理危机并从危机中恢复的理解。试图扩大视野,包括其他可能导致公司灭亡的管理失误,例如,通过突然失去市场份额。突出三个危机阶段:管理危机;危机点;危机爆发了。结论是,必须找到一种识别易发生危机的组织的方法——尽管提高管理层对这些问题的认识会有所帮助——但高级管理人员的自满情绪仍然是最大的危险。
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引用次数: 3
People in a crisis 处于危机中的人们
Pub Date : 1999-08-01 DOI: 10.1108/EUM0000000006701
T. Kippenberger
Divides corporate disasters into two kinds: soft disasters, e.g. computer‐related incidents which are non‐life‐threatening (business disasters); and hard disasters — a violent invasion of one's workspace. Charts these are the ones with the potential to cause prolonged stress/psychological trauma. Looks at patterns of response, trauma, staff turnover and support, and support and understanding. Points out some disasters can have a positive side, with certain people coming out stronger, having coped with the problems involved.
将企业灾难分为两类:软灾难,例如与计算机有关的不危及生命的事件(业务灾难);还有严重的灾难——对工作空间的暴力入侵。这些图表有可能导致长期的压力/心理创伤。看看反应模式,创伤,员工流动和支持,以及支持和理解。指出一些灾难也有积极的一面,某些人在处理了相关问题后变得更强大。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the effect 测量效果
Pub Date : 1999-08-01 DOI: 10.1108/EUM0000000006695
T. Kippenberger
States the impact of catastrophes on shareholder value is not strongly influenced by the existence of catastrophe insurance, but that a catastrophe puts the spotlight directly on management's ability to handle a crisis. Uses a Table of cases studied with regard to catastrophe effects and also uses 3 Figures showing differences between recoverers and non‐recoverers; and also Union Carbide after Bhopal; plus PanAm after Lockerbie. Concludes large numbers of fatalities, along with issues about management's responsibility for the accident or attendant safety lapses, are significant factors differentiating non‐recoverers.
指出,巨灾对股东价值的影响并不受巨灾保险存在的强烈影响,但一场巨灾将人们的注意力直接放在了管理层处理危机的能力上。使用关于灾难影响的案例研究表,并使用3个图表显示恢复者和非恢复者之间的差异;博帕尔之后还有联合碳化物公司;加上洛克比空难后的泛美航空。结论:大量的死亡事故,以及管理人员对事故或随之而来的安全失误的责任问题,是区分非恢复者的重要因素。
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引用次数: 123
Understanding why corporate and industrial crises occur 理解企业和工业危机发生的原因
Pub Date : 1999-08-01 DOI: 10.1108/EUM0000000006693
T. Kippenberger
Reckons that industrial crises are triggered by events which are specific and identifiable, and which damage the environment, property, even life. Acknowledges trigger events are most unlikely to occur, often preceded by warning signs indicating problems — but these are frequently ignored because of the perceived unlikelihood of a disaster. Uses a Table, depicting a model of industrial crises, for added emphasis. Argues that industrial crisis cannot be dealt with at the level of single organizations as ultimately it is the economic and cultural environments inside and outside an organization that play crucial roles in preventing disasters.
认为工业危机是由特定的、可识别的事件引发的,这些事件会损害环境、财产,甚至生命。承认触发事件是最不可能发生的,通常在事件发生之前会有提示问题的警告信号——但是由于人们认为灾难不太可能发生,这些信号经常被忽略。使用表格,描绘工业危机的模型,以增加强调。认为工业危机不能在单个组织的层面上处理,因为最终是组织内外的经济和文化环境在预防灾难中起着至关重要的作用。
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引用次数: 5
Kidnap, ransom and extortion 绑架,勒索和勒索
Pub Date : 1999-08-01 DOI: 10.1108/EUM0000000006702
T. Kippenberger
Discusses the rise in kidnappings from 6,000 a year in the 1980s to between 20,000 and 25,000 worldwide in the late 1990s. Illustrates which countries are most likely for kidnaps to happen in and the various outcomes for victims (some of whom were killed). Lays down various techniques for the avoidance of kidnapping and suggests there is no room nowadays for complacency.
讨论了绑架事件从20世纪80年代的每年6000起上升到90年代末的每年2万到2.5万起。说明哪些国家最有可能发生绑架,以及受害者的各种结果(其中一些人被杀害)。提出了避免绑架的各种技巧,并建议现在没有自满的余地。
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引用次数: 0
Internal audit and governance: the shift from control to risk 内部审计与治理:从控制到风险的转变
Pub Date : 1999-08-01 DOI: 10.1108/EUM0000000005432
T. Kippenberger
Reflects on how organizations that are acknowledged leaders in the field of risk management, have achieved pre‐eminent positions. Acknowledges risk‐based auditing is still in its formative stages and so identification of best practice is an inexact science — but there are three important trends: from control‐based to risk‐based auditing; use of scenario planning; and understanding that risks apply to soft assets. Uses a Table for extra emphasis and explanation.
反映了在风险管理领域被公认为领导者的组织是如何取得卓越地位的。承认基于风险的审计仍处于形成阶段,因此确定最佳实践是一门不精确的科学-但有三个重要趋势:从基于控制的审计到基于风险的审计;使用情景规划;并理解风险适用于软资产。使用表格来强调和解释。
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引用次数: 3
Reducing the impact of the unexpected 减少意外事件的影响
Pub Date : 1999-08-01 DOI: 10.1108/EUM0000000006698
T. Kippenberger
Discusses that the difference between disaster recovery and business continuity management is mostly one of scope and the disaster recovery end of the spectrum is characterized by a focus on technology‐based problems (e.g. computing), triggered by external factors (natural disasters, bombs, etc.). Employs a Figure highlighting planning for business continuity in context. Stresses disaster recovery is concerned with getting back online following a crisis but that it is important people do not become complacent because of knowledge of a plan of recovery.
讨论了灾难恢复和业务连续性管理之间的区别主要是范围之一,而灾难恢复的特点是关注由外部因素(自然灾害、炸弹等)触发的基于技术的问题(例如计算)。在上下文中使用一个图来突出业务连续性计划。强调灾难恢复是指在危机发生后重新联机,但重要的是,人们不要因为了解恢复计划而沾沾自喜。
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引用次数: 2
Facing different types of crisis 面对不同类型的危机
Pub Date : 1999-08-01 DOI: 10.1108/EUM0000000006697
T. Kippenberger
Identifies seven types of crises that managers face, these range from natural disasters to technology failure and encompass crises provoked by external confrontation or direct acts of malevolence. Lists out seven types of crisis: natural disasters; technological disasters; crises of confrontation; acts of malevolence; misplaced management values; acts of deception; and management misconduct. Concludes senior management (managers at all levels and in all disciplines) need to be aware of potential problems to enable prevention or mitigation of such crises.
确定管理者面临的七种危机类型,从自然灾害到技术故障,包括由外部对抗或直接恶意行为引发的危机。列出了七种危机类型:自然灾害;技术灾害;对抗危机;恶意行为;管理价值观错位;欺骗行为;以及管理不当。结论:高级管理人员(所有级别和所有学科的管理人员)需要意识到潜在的问题,以便能够预防或减轻此类危机。
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引用次数: 5
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The Antidote
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