Pub Date : 2013-04-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8586.2011.00421.x
F. Martínez-Sánchez
We analyse the decision of firms about when to launch their products on the market when they produce differentiated goods and compete on prices. We find two subgame perfect equilibria: one in which the high‐quality firm holds its leadership in quality, and another in which the low‐quality firm leapfrogs its rival. When the initial level of differentiation is high enough, the low‐quality firm always launches first. Finally, we extend this model to analyse commercial piracy. We obtain that pirates are highly unlikely to launch the illegal copy first because they would bear a higher penalty and a higher risk of being detected.
{"title":"Time to Market and Impatient Customers","authors":"F. Martínez-Sánchez","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-8586.2011.00421.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8586.2011.00421.x","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse the decision of firms about when to launch their products on the market when they produce differentiated goods and compete on prices. We find two subgame perfect equilibria: one in which the high‐quality firm holds its leadership in quality, and another in which the low‐quality firm leapfrogs its rival. When the initial level of differentiation is high enough, the low‐quality firm always launches first. Finally, we extend this model to analyse commercial piracy. We obtain that pirates are highly unlikely to launch the illegal copy first because they would bear a higher penalty and a higher risk of being detected.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84982947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides an introductory overview of the meaning and measurement of national accounts statistics. Attention is paid to the various uses of national accounts, the role of the international guidelines, the relationship with economic theoretic and administrative concepts and the measurement practice. The latter is also compared with compiling other statistics, econometric modelling and a barometer: what are the similarities and differences?
{"title":"Meaning and Measurement of National Accounts Statistics","authors":"F. Bos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2231937","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2231937","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides an introductory overview of the meaning and measurement of national accounts statistics. Attention is paid to the various uses of national accounts, the role of the international guidelines, the relationship with economic theoretic and administrative concepts and the measurement practice. The latter is also compared with compiling other statistics, econometric modelling and a barometer: what are the similarities and differences?","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"38 2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75859705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2013-03-01DOI: 10.5089/9781475557398.001
Manik L. Shrestha, Marco A. Marini
This paper presents a statistical analysis of revisions in quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) of the Group of Twenty countries (G-20) since 2000. The main objective is to assess whether the reliability of early estimates of quarterly GDP has been weakened from the turmoil of the 2008 financial crisis. The results indicate that larger and more downward revisions were observed during the years 2008 and 2009 than in previous years.
{"title":"Quarterly GDP Revisions in G-20 Countries: Evidence from the 2008 Financial Crisis","authors":"Manik L. Shrestha, Marco A. Marini","doi":"10.5089/9781475557398.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475557398.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a statistical analysis of revisions in quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) of the Group of Twenty countries (G-20) since 2000. The main objective is to assess whether the reliability of early estimates of quarterly GDP has been weakened from the turmoil of the 2008 financial crisis. The results indicate that larger and more downward revisions were observed during the years 2008 and 2009 than in previous years.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83498525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Group lending has been widely adopted in the past thirty years by many microfinance institutions as a means to mitigate information asymmetries when delivering credit to the poor. This paper proposes an empirical method to address the potential omitted variable problem resulting from unobserved group types when modeling the repayment behavior of group members. We estimate the model using a rich dataset from a group lending program in India. The estimation results support our model specification and show the advantages of relying on a type-varying method when analyzing the probability of default of group members.
{"title":"Group Lending with Heterogeneous Types","authors":"L. Gan, Manuel A. Hernandez, Yanyan Liu","doi":"10.1111/ecin.12541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12541","url":null,"abstract":"Group lending has been widely adopted in the past thirty years by many microfinance institutions as a means to mitigate information asymmetries when delivering credit to the poor. This paper proposes an empirical method to address the potential omitted variable problem resulting from unobserved group types when modeling the repayment behavior of group members. We estimate the model using a rich dataset from a group lending program in India. The estimation results support our model specification and show the advantages of relying on a type-varying method when analyzing the probability of default of group members.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79777553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Cagetti, E. Holmquist, L. Lynn, Susan Hume McIntosh, David B. Wasshausen
The integrated macroeconomic accounts (IMAs), produced jointly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), present a sequence of accounts that relate income, saving, investment in real and financial assets, and asset revaluations to changes in net worth. In this paper we first provide some background information on the IMAs and on their construction. Next, we discuss the usefulness of the IMAs, focusing for instance on the evolution of household net worth and its components, a set of series that has appeared frequently in discussions of the causes and effects of the recent financial crisis. We also discuss some of the challenges associated with integrating nonfinancial and financial data sources, that is, the current and capital accounts statistics from BEA's national income and product accounts (NIPAs) and the financial account statistics from FRB's flow of funds accounts (FFAs). In the final section, we discuss future plans for improving the IMAs, including a proposed framework and methodology for breaking out the financial business sector into three subsectors: 1) Central bank, 2) Insurance and pension funds, and 3) Other financial business.
{"title":"The Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts of the United States","authors":"M. Cagetti, E. Holmquist, L. Lynn, Susan Hume McIntosh, David B. Wasshausen","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2197527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2197527","url":null,"abstract":"The integrated macroeconomic accounts (IMAs), produced jointly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), present a sequence of accounts that relate income, saving, investment in real and financial assets, and asset revaluations to changes in net worth. In this paper we first provide some background information on the IMAs and on their construction. Next, we discuss the usefulness of the IMAs, focusing for instance on the evolution of household net worth and its components, a set of series that has appeared frequently in discussions of the causes and effects of the recent financial crisis. We also discuss some of the challenges associated with integrating nonfinancial and financial data sources, that is, the current and capital accounts statistics from BEA's national income and product accounts (NIPAs) and the financial account statistics from FRB's flow of funds accounts (FFAs). In the final section, we discuss future plans for improving the IMAs, including a proposed framework and methodology for breaking out the financial business sector into three subsectors: 1) Central bank, 2) Insurance and pension funds, and 3) Other financial business.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73677192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abating climate change is an enormous international public-goods problem with a classical “free-rider” structure. However, it is also a global “free-driver” problem because geoengineering the stratosphere with reflective particles to block incoming solar radiation is so cheap that it could essentially be undertaken unilaterally by one state perceiving itself to be in peril. This exploratory paper develops the main features of a free-driver externality in a simple model motivated by the asymmetric consequences of type-I and type-II errors. I propose a social-choice decision architecture, embodying the solution concept of a supermajority voting rule, and derive its basic properties.
{"title":"A Voting Architecture for the Governance of Free‐Driver Externalities, with Application to Geoengineering","authors":"M. Weitzman","doi":"10.1111/sjoe.12120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12120","url":null,"abstract":"Abating climate change is an enormous international public-goods problem with a classical “free-rider” structure. However, it is also a global “free-driver” problem because geoengineering the stratosphere with reflective particles to block incoming solar radiation is so cheap that it could essentially be undertaken unilaterally by one state perceiving itself to be in peril. This exploratory paper develops the main features of a free-driver externality in a simple model motivated by the asymmetric consequences of type-I and type-II errors. I propose a social-choice decision architecture, embodying the solution concept of a supermajority voting rule, and derive its basic properties.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75168561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents the latest Social Accounting Matrix of Pakistan (SAM) for the year 2007–08. Our proposed approach to estimating SAMs is motivated by an information theoretic approach to estimation (Judge & Mittelhammer, 2012) that takes a Bayesian perspective on the efficient use of information: “Use all the information you have, but do not assume any information you do not have.†The methodology used to develop this SAM ensures that it is perfectly consistent with the National Accounts. The SAM includes 51 sectors of activity, 27 factors of production, and 18 household groups, allowing tracing direct and indirect effects of potential scenarios through production and consumption linkages and capture distributional effects. We illustrate the use of the SAM using a semi input-output multiplier model. Output multipliers in Pakistan, accounting for supply constraints, range between 1.1 and 1.4, and shocks to livestock and industry have the largest spillover effects.
{"title":"A 2007-08 Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan","authors":"Dario Debowicz, P. Dorosh, H. Haider, S. Robinson","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2161402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2161402","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents the latest Social Accounting Matrix of Pakistan (SAM) for the year 2007–08. Our proposed approach to estimating SAMs is motivated by an information theoretic approach to estimation (Judge & Mittelhammer, 2012) that takes a Bayesian perspective on the efficient use of information: “Use all the information you have, but do not assume any information you do not have.†The methodology used to develop this SAM ensures that it is perfectly consistent with the National Accounts. The SAM includes 51 sectors of activity, 27 factors of production, and 18 household groups, allowing tracing direct and indirect effects of potential scenarios through production and consumption linkages and capture distributional effects. We illustrate the use of the SAM using a semi input-output multiplier model. Output multipliers in Pakistan, accounting for supply constraints, range between 1.1 and 1.4, and shocks to livestock and industry have the largest spillover effects.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91141990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the literature of comprehensive national accounts, national net investments are used to indicate dynamic welfare improvement in an economy. A well-known approach associates national net investments with the shadow value of change in stock of capital assets in an economy. Following this capital stock approach, sectoral net investments can be defined as the shadow value of change in stock of capital assets owned by a sector in an economy. An alternative approach is based on future commodity flows to a sector. This commodity flow approach associates sectoral net investments with the present value of changes in future commodity flows to a sector. In the present paper, I compare these two approaches and prove that they coincide with each other only if the future commodity flows to the sector can be attributed to current stock of capital assets in the sector alone. In empirical studies, commodity flow approach can be a better alternative if the purpose is to estimate the contributions to national net investments of a recipient of future cash flows.
{"title":"Comparing Approaches to Valuing Sectoral Net Investments","authors":"T. Wei","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1407016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1407016","url":null,"abstract":"In the literature of comprehensive national accounts, national net investments are used to indicate dynamic welfare improvement in an economy. A well-known approach associates national net investments with the shadow value of change in stock of capital assets in an economy. Following this capital stock approach, sectoral net investments can be defined as the shadow value of change in stock of capital assets owned by a sector in an economy. An alternative approach is based on future commodity flows to a sector. This commodity flow approach associates sectoral net investments with the present value of changes in future commodity flows to a sector. In the present paper, I compare these two approaches and prove that they coincide with each other only if the future commodity flows to the sector can be attributed to current stock of capital assets in the sector alone. In empirical studies, commodity flow approach can be a better alternative if the purpose is to estimate the contributions to national net investments of a recipient of future cash flows.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80459145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-09-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8462.2012.00694.x
H. Ergas
This article examines the future funding of aged care in the context of the Intergenerational Report. Noting the predicted substantial increases in aged‐care costs, it argues that the current funding of aged care, which imposes high and likely rising co‐contributions on care recipients, should be replaced with comprehensive aged‐care insurance. It also recommends improving the transparency of the Intergenerational Report and the sophistication of its sensitivity testing.
{"title":"Funding and Providing Aged Care: Lessons from the Last Decade","authors":"H. Ergas","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-8462.2012.00694.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.2012.00694.x","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the future funding of aged care in the context of the Intergenerational Report. Noting the predicted substantial increases in aged‐care costs, it argues that the current funding of aged care, which imposes high and likely rising co‐contributions on care recipients, should be replaced with comprehensive aged‐care insurance. It also recommends improving the transparency of the Intergenerational Report and the sophistication of its sensitivity testing.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"368 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85462155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maurizio Mazziero, Leonardo Baggiani, S. Fait, A. Lawford
Mazziero, Maurizio, Baggiani, Leonardo, Fait, Silvano and Lawford, Andrew, Italia 2011: Un Anno Di Sofferenza (Italy 2011: A Year of Sufferance) (February 18, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2007513 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2007513 Mazziero, Maurizio, Italia 3 Trim 2011: Pil, Debito & Co (Italy 3q2011: GDP, Debt & Co) (December 13, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1972366 Mazziero, Maurizio, Italia: L’Economia al Giro di Boa del 2011 (Italy: The Economy Halfway Through 2011) (August 16, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1911942 Mazziero, Maurizio, Italia 1q2011: Pil, Debito & Co. (Italy 1q2011: GDP, Debt & Co.) (May 17, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1854888 .Mazziero, Maurizio, 2010: Un Altro Anno a Debito per l’Italia (2010: Another Year of Debt for Italy) (April 10, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=180648 .This study, in Italian language, examines the quarterly evolution of Italy's sovereign debt and its rating in comparison to the Eurozone countries, its stock of government bonds, official reserves, GDP and balance of trade, inflation and unemployment.
马齐罗、毛里齐奥、巴吉阿尼、莱昂纳多、法伊特、西尔瓦诺和安德鲁·劳福德，意大利2011:忍受的一年(2012年2月18日)。可在SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2007513或http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2007513马齐罗，毛里齐奥，意大利3 Trim 2011: Pil, Debito & Co(意大利2011年第三季度:GDP，债务& Co)(2011年12月13日)。可在SSRN查阅:http://ssrn.com/abstract=1972366马齐罗，毛里齐奥，意大利:L 'Economia al Giro di Boa del 2011(意大利经济:2011年过半)(2011年8月16日)。可在SSRN查阅:http://ssrn.com/abstract=1911942意大利Mazziero, Maurizio, 2011年第一季度:Pil, Debito & Co.(意大利2011年第一季度:GDP, Debt & Co.)(2011年5月17日)。mazziero, Maurizio, 2010: Un Altro Anno a Debito per l 'Italia(2010:意大利的又一年债务)(2011年4月10日)。该研究以意大利语进行，考察了意大利主权债务的季度演变及其与欧元区国家的评级、政府债券存量、官方储备、GDP和贸易平衡、通货膨胀和失业率。
{"title":"Italia 1 Trim 2012: Pil, Debito & Co (Italy 1Q 2012: GDP, Debt & Co)","authors":"Maurizio Mazziero, Leonardo Baggiani, S. Fait, A. Lawford","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2082954","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2082954","url":null,"abstract":"Mazziero, Maurizio, Baggiani, Leonardo, Fait, Silvano and Lawford, Andrew, Italia 2011: Un Anno Di Sofferenza (Italy 2011: A Year of Sufferance) (February 18, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2007513 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2007513 Mazziero, Maurizio, Italia 3 Trim 2011: Pil, Debito & Co (Italy 3q2011: GDP, Debt & Co) (December 13, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1972366 Mazziero, Maurizio, Italia: L’Economia al Giro di Boa del 2011 (Italy: The Economy Halfway Through 2011) (August 16, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1911942 Mazziero, Maurizio, Italia 1q2011: Pil, Debito & Co. (Italy 1q2011: GDP, Debt & Co.) (May 17, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1854888 .Mazziero, Maurizio, 2010: Un Altro Anno a Debito per l’Italia (2010: Another Year of Debt for Italy) (April 10, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=180648 .This study, in Italian language, examines the quarterly evolution of Italy's sovereign debt and its rating in comparison to the Eurozone countries, its stock of government bonds, official reserves, GDP and balance of trade, inflation and unemployment.","PeriodicalId":18164,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83139713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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