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El microcrédito, elemento clave del desarrollo económico rural: un estudio de caso (Microcredit, a Key Element of Rural Economic Development: A Case Study) 小额信贷,农村经济发展的一个关键因素:一个案例研究
Pub Date : 2018-12-27 DOI: 10.22430/24223182.1313
M. Orozco-Gutierrez
Para las personas que carecen de educación financiera es complicado iniciar un negocio. Por no tener acceso a la banca comercial, para conseguir financiamiento recurren a los amigos, familiares y prestamistas. Actualmente, las microfinanzas suplen estas formas de obtención de dinero y este impulso económico hace que, especialmente las mujeres, puedan invertir, permitiéndoles atenuar los gastos en sus hogares. Este tipo de microfinanciamiento está impactando económicamente a las comunidades rurales; los resultados indican que se han conformado grupos de mujeres emprendedoras, generando un aumento importante en la economía del lugar. El propósito del estudio, de tipo cuantitativo y descriptivo, es identificar las características de quienes solicitan microcréditos; esto en una muestra de 50 emprendedores. Los datos obtenidos revelan que, en 2016, se destinó un promedio de 50.000 micropréstamos en la costa de Chiapas, de ellos el 70 % se destina como capital de trabajo, y el 30 % restante como activo fijo.
对于没有金融教育的人来说,创业是很复杂的。由于无法获得商业银行融资,他们求助于朋友、家人和贷款人。目前,小额信贷正在取代这些筹资方式,这种经济动力使妇女特别是能够进行投资,使她们能够减少家庭开支。这种小额信贷正在对农村社区产生经济影响;本研究的目的是确定在该地区工作的女性企业家的数量,并确定她们在该地区的活动。这项定量和描述性研究的目的是确定小额信贷申请人的特征;这是50位企业家的样本。获得的数据显示,2016年,恰帕斯海岸平均分配了5万笔小额贷款,其中70%作为营运资金,其余30%作为固定资产。
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引用次数: 5
Can Communal Systems Work? The Effects of Communal Water Provision on Child Health in Peru 公共系统能奏效吗?秘鲁公共供水对儿童健康的影响
Pub Date : 2018-12-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3296323
S. Iranzo, Joan Calzada
Abstract Communal water organizations are widespread in many areas of developing countries, where local governments lack the resources to offer a minimum quality water service. However, these organizations have their own resource limitations and they additionally face the well-known problems associated with collective action. It is therefore unclear how effectively they can provide safe water, and the evidence available thus far is mixed. This paper analyzes the communal water organizations in Peru known as Juntas Administrativas de Servicios de Saneamiento (JASS). Using detailed household survey data, we empirically assess the differential impact of the JASS vis-a-vis public systems on two water-related child health outcomes: diarrhea and low birth weight. Our identification strategy exploits the legislative changes introduced in the 2000s and the arbitrary cut-off to classify the administrative sub-units of Peruvian municipalities (districts) in order to achieve exogenous variation in the type of water provision. We find that child diarrhea and low birth weight are significantly lower for households served by JASS in the districts located in the first Inca settlements where the pre-Columbian tradition of communal work, called Minka, has survived over centuries. We also show that in those districts the JASS have better governance (existence of their own rules, higher participation and accountability and a greater ability to obtain external support). These findings confirm the hypothesis that social capital and traditions foster cooperation among community members and are in line with recent works showing the importance of historically developed institutions in building social capital. More generally, our results suggest that communal organizations are not a one-fits-all solution, but rather their success depends crucially on the existence of mechanisms for overcoming the problems associated with collective action and the active involvement of the community.
公共供水组织在发展中国家的许多地区都很普遍,在这些地区,地方政府缺乏提供最低质量供水服务的资源。然而,这些组织有自己的资源限制,他们还面临着众所周知的与集体行动有关的问题。因此,目前还不清楚它们能在多大程度上有效地提供安全饮用水,而且迄今为止可获得的证据也参差不齐。本文分析了秘鲁被称为Juntas Administrativas de Servicios de Saneamiento (JASS)的公共水组织。利用详细的家庭调查数据,我们对JASS相对于公共系统对两种与水有关的儿童健康结果(腹泻和低出生体重)的不同影响进行了实证评估。我们的识别策略利用了2000年代引入的立法变化和对秘鲁各市(区)的行政亚单位进行分类的任意截止,以实现供水类型的外源性变化。我们发现,在第一批印加定居点地区,由JASS服务的家庭中,儿童腹泻和低出生体重的发生率明显较低,在这些地区,哥伦布发现美洲大陆之前的集体工作传统(称为Minka)已经延续了几个世纪。我们还表明,在这些地区,JASS有更好的治理(存在自己的规则,更高的参与度和问责制,以及更大的获得外部支持的能力)。这些发现证实了社会资本和传统促进社区成员之间合作的假设,并与最近的研究一致,表明历史上发展的制度在建立社会资本方面的重要性。更一般地说,我们的研究结果表明,社区组织并不是一刀切的解决方案,相反,它们的成功关键取决于是否存在克服与集体行动和社区积极参与相关的问题的机制。
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引用次数: 0
Argentina’S €Œmissing Capitalâ€� Puzzle and Limited Commitment Constraints 阿根廷<e:2> -™S  - Œmissing资本<e:2> -困惑和有限的承诺约束
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.24149/wp1815
Marek Kapicka, Finn E. Kydland, Carlos E. Zarazaga
Capital accumulation in Argentina was slow in the 1990s, despite high total factor productivity (TFP) growth and low international interest rates. A possible explanation for the ?missing capital? is that foreign investors were reluctant to take advantage of the high returns to investment seemingly offered by that small open economy under such favorable conditions, on the grounds that previous historical developments had led them to perceive Argentina as a country prone to external debt ?opportunistic defaults.? The paper examines this conjecture from the perspective of an optimal contract between foreign lenders and a small open economy subject to limited commitment constraints. Numerical experiments for a deterministic version of that analytical framework show that limited commitment constraints introduce an asymmetry to the capital accumulation process of small open economies: the responses of investment to positive TFP shocks are muted and shortlived, while those to negative TFP shocks are large and persistent. Furthermore, under some circumstances, a lower international interest rate environment can magnify the asymmetry. A quantitative implementation of the model economy to data from Argentina accounts, in line with asymmetry just described, for the rapid decline that that country?s capital stock experienced, along with a falling TFP during the 1980s, as well as for the lack of any visible recovery of that stock during the significant surges of TFP observed between 1992-1998 and 2002-2008. In the absence of the limited commitment constraint, Argentina?s capital stock in 2008 would have been 50% higher than it actually was.
上世纪90年代,尽管全要素生产率(TFP)增长较快,国际利率也较低,但阿根廷的资本积累速度缓慢。对资本缺失的可能解释是什么?是外国投资者不愿利用这个小型开放经济体在如此有利的条件下似乎提供的高投资回报,理由是以前的历史发展使他们认为阿根廷是一个容易出现外债“机会主义违约”的国家。本文从外国出借人与受有限承诺约束的小型开放经济体之间的最优契约的角度考察了这一猜想。该分析框架的确定性版本的数值实验表明,有限的承诺约束给小型开放经济体的资本积累过程带来了不对称:投资对全要素生产率正冲击的反应是微弱且短暂的,而对全要素生产率负冲击的反应则是巨大且持久的。此外,在某些情况下,较低的国际利率环境会放大这种不对称。对阿根廷账户数据的经济模型的定量实施,符合刚才描述的不对称,对于该国的快速衰退?在20世纪80年代,随着TFP的下降,以及在1992-1998年和2002-2008年TFP显著飙升期间,该股票缺乏任何明显的复苏。在没有有限承诺约束的情况下,阿根廷?2008年的美国资本存量将比实际水平高出50%。
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引用次数: 0
The Health Consequences of Hazardous and Nonhazardous Child Labor 危险和非危险童工的健康后果
Pub Date : 2018-11-22 DOI: 10.1111/rode.12571
A. Posso
The health consequences of child labor are ambiguous. On the one hand, heavy lifting, using dangerous tools and handling fertilizers may impact negatively on health. On the other, child labor could be used to achieve a minimal subsistence standard, without which the child could experience deteriorating health. Previous empirical studies are inconclusive because, until now, existing data sources could not disentangle between different activities performed by child workers. To establish how work is related to health, it is essential to know what activities are being performed. This study fills this gap with a unique child labor survey conducted in Peru in 2015. Child labor is classified into hazardous and nonhazardous activities. The econometric results suggest that children doing nonhazardous work are less likely to have health problems than nonworking children. Conversely, those that work in hazardous activities are potentially more likely to exhibit health concerns. A series of robustness tests confirm these findings. The results give impetus to the notion that child work increases total resources available for households, which can improve child health. Therefore, it is over and above this potential increment in resources that some hazardous activities worsen working children's health.
童工对健康的影响尚不明确。一方面,搬运重物、使用危险工具和处理肥料可能对健康产生负面影响。另一方面,童工可以用来达到最低生活标准,否则儿童的健康状况可能会恶化。以前的实证研究是不确定的,因为到目前为止,现有的数据来源无法区分童工从事的不同活动。要确定工作与健康的关系,就必须知道正在进行哪些活动。本研究通过2015年在秘鲁进行的一项独特的童工调查填补了这一空白。童工分为危险活动和非危险活动。计量经济学结果表明,从事无害工作的儿童比不工作的儿童更不容易出现健康问题。相反,那些从事危险活动的人更有可能出现健康问题。一系列的稳健性测试证实了这些发现。这些结果推动了这样一种观念,即儿童工作增加了家庭可用的总资源,从而可以改善儿童健康。因此,除了这种潜在的资源增量之外,一些危险活动还使劳动儿童的健康恶化。
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引用次数: 8
Assortative Matching or Exclusionary Hiring? The Impact of Firm Policies on Racial Wage Differences in Brazil 分类匹配还是排他性雇佣?企业政策对巴西种族工资差异的影响
Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8-0106-PY10
David Card, F. Gérard, Lorenzo Lagos, Edson Severnini
A growing body of research shows that firms' employment and wage-setting policies contribute to wage inequality and pay disparities between groups. We measure the effects of these policies on racial pay differences in Brazil. We find that nonwhites are less likely to work at establishments that pay more to all race groups, a pattern that explains about 20% of the white-nonwhite wage gap for both genders. The pay premiums offered by different employers are also compressed for nonwhites relative to whites, contributing another 5% of the overall gap. We then ask how much of the under-representation of nonwhites at higher-paying workplaces is due to the selective skill mix at these establishments. Using a counterfactual based on the observed skill distribution at each establishment and the nonwhite shares in different skill groups in the local labor market, we conclude that assortative matching accounts for about two-thirds of the under-representation gap for both men and women. The remainder reflects an unexplained preference for white workers at higher-paying establishments. The wage losses associated with unexplained sorting and differential wage setting are largest for nonwhites with the highest levels of general skills, suggesting that the allocative costs of race-based preferences may be relatively large in Brazil.
越来越多的研究表明,公司的雇佣和工资设定政策导致了不同群体之间的工资不平等和薪酬差异。我们衡量了这些政策对巴西种族薪酬差异的影响。我们发现,非白人不太可能在向所有种族群体支付更高薪酬的机构工作,这一模式可以解释男女之间约20%的白人-非白人工资差距。不同雇主提供给非白人的工资溢价也相对于白人有所压缩,这又造成了总体差距的5%。然后我们问,在高薪工作场所,非白人的代表性不足在多大程度上是由于这些机构的选择性技能组合造成的。基于观察到的每个机构的技能分布和当地劳动力市场中不同技能组的非白人份额,我们得出结论,分类匹配占男性和女性代表性不足差距的三分之二左右。剩下的部分反映了一种无法解释的偏好,即高薪机构更青睐白人员工。对于一般技能水平最高的非白人来说,与无法解释的分类和差别工资设置相关的工资损失最大,这表明,在巴西,基于种族的偏好的配置成本可能相对较大。
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引用次数: 27
Mapping the Landscape of Transactions: The Governance of Business Relations in Latin America 绘制交易景观:拉丁美洲商业关系的治理
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3378731
David C. Francis, Nona Karalashvili, Peter Murrell
To what extent do firms use trust, law, and third-parties to ensure fulfillment of agreements to transact? How do they combine these mechanisms to form transactional governance structures? How do answers to these questions vary across countries? Generating the relevant data requires constructing a survey question answerable by any firm, anywhere. The question is administered in six South American countries. Applied to the resultant data, latent class analysis (LCA) estimates classes that correspond to the transactional governance structures that firms employ to support implementation of agreements. Without imposing an a priori model, LCA discovers meaningful governance structures. Bilateralism appears in all governance structures. Law is never used alone. Bilateralism and formal institutions are sometimes complements, never substitutes. Within-country regional variation in the use of bilateralism and law exceeds cross-country variation. LCA provides the posterior probabilities that each firm uses each governance structure, facilitating testing hypotheses consequent on Williamson's discriminating-alignment agenda.
公司在多大程度上使用信托、法律和第三方来确保交易协议的履行?他们如何组合这些机制来形成事务性治理结构?不同国家对这些问题的回答有何不同?生成相关数据需要构建一个任何公司在任何地方都能回答的调查问题。该问题在六个南美国家进行。应用于结果数据,潜在类分析(LCA)估计与公司用来支持协议实现的事务治理结构相对应的类。在没有强加先验模型的情况下,LCA发现了有意义的治理结构。双边主义出现在所有治理结构中。法律绝不是单独使用的。双边主义和正式机构有时是互补的,而不是相互替代的。在使用双边主义和法律方面,国家内部的区域差异超过了国家之间的差异。LCA提供了每个公司使用每个治理结构的后验概率,便于检验Williamson的歧视-结盟议程所导致的假设。
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引用次数: 3
Mitos Capitais (Myths) Mitos capital(神话)
Pub Date : 2018-07-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3223395
José Afonso
Portuguese Abstract: O crescimento da economia brasileira não decola. Enquanto faltam investimento e poupança, motoreschave para escolas econômicas (da keynesiana à clássica), sobram mitos e ataques pessoais entre os seus maiores professores no Brasil. English Abstract: The growth of the Brazilian economy does not take off. While lacking investment and savings, key motors for economic schools (from Keynesian to classical), there remain myths and personal attacks among their greatest teachers in Brazil.
摘要:巴西经济增长与经济发展的关系。Enquanto faltam invest to e ppana, motoreschave para escolas econômicas (da keynesiana clássica), sobram mitos, atatques pessoais entres, seus maiores教授在巴西。摘要:巴西经济增长并未起飞。尽管缺乏投资和储蓄,这是经济学派(从凯恩斯主义到古典主义)的关键动力,但在巴西,他们最伟大的老师之间仍然存在神话和人身攻击。
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引用次数: 0
The Value of Health Insurance: A Household Job Search Approach 健康保险的价值:一个家庭求职方法
Pub Date : 2018-07-30 DOI: 10.1920/WP.IFS.2018.2018
G. Conti, R. Narita, Rita Ginja
Do households value access to free health insurance when making labor supply decisions? We answer this question using the introduction of universal health insurance in Mexico, the Seguro Popular (SP), in 2002. The SP targeted individuals not covered by Social Security and broke the link between access to health care and job contract. We start by using the rollout of SP across municipalities in a differences-indifferences approach, and find an increase in informality of 4% among low-educated families with children. We then develop and estimate a household search model that incorporates the pre-reform valuation of formal sector amenities relative to the alternatives (informal sector and non-employment) and the value of SP. The estimated value of the health insurance coverage provided by SP is below the government's cost of the program, and the corresponding utility gain is, at most, 0.56 per each peso spent.
家庭在决定劳动力供给时是否重视免费医疗保险?我们用2002年墨西哥全民健康保险(Seguro Popular, SP)来回答这个问题。社会保障计划针对的是不受社会保障覆盖的个人,并打破了获得医疗保健与工作合同之间的联系。我们首先以差异-冷漠的方法在各个城市使用SP的推出,并发现在有孩子的低教育程度家庭中,非正式性增加了4%。然后,我们开发并估计了一个家庭搜索模型,该模型结合了改革前对相对于替代方案(非正式部门和非就业)的正式部门便利设施的评估以及SP的价值。SP提供的健康保险覆盖的估计价值低于政府的计划成本,相应的效用收益最多为每比索0.56。
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引用次数: 7
Efficient Labor Supply for Latin Families: Is the Intra-Household Bargaining Power Relevant? 拉丁家庭的有效劳动力供给:家庭内部议价能力是否相关?
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3234218
J. Campaña, José Ignacio Giménez, J. Molina
This paper analyzes the efficient labor supply of male and female workers in Latin American countries employing the collective model framework (Chiappori et al.,2002). Using data from Time Use Surveys for Mexico (2009) and Colombia (2012), we find evidence of Pareto-efficient labor supply decisions within households, as the collective rationality is not rejected in the two countries. We find that higher female wages are related to more labor market hours of female workers, and male workers show an altruistic behavior towards females with the increase of their labor income. Sex ratio are related to transfers of additional income from male to female workers in Colombia, which sheds light on the relevance of distribution factors in the internal decision process of the couple. Our results suggest that the distribution of bargaining power within the household is an important factor that should be considered when analyzing household decisions.
本文采用集体模型框架(Chiappori et al.,2002)对拉美国家男女劳动者的有效劳动力供给进行了分析。利用墨西哥(2009年)和哥伦比亚(2012年)的时间使用调查数据,我们发现了家庭内部帕累托有效劳动力供给决策的证据,因为在这两个国家,集体理性并没有被拒绝。研究发现,女性工资水平的提高与女性劳动力市场时间的增加有关,男性劳动力对女性的利他行为随着其劳动收入的增加而增加。在哥伦比亚,性别比例与男性工人向女性工人的额外收入转移有关,这揭示了分配因素在夫妇内部决策过程中的相关性。我们的研究结果表明,在分析家庭决策时,家庭内部的议价能力分布是一个应该考虑的重要因素。
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引用次数: 12
A Nowcasting Model for the Growth Rate of Real GDP of Ecuador: Implementing a Time-Varying Intercept 厄瓜多尔实际GDP增长率的临近预测模型:实现时变截距
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.044
Manuel González-Astudillo, Daniel Baquero
This paper proposes a model to nowcast the annual growth rate of real GDP for Ecuador. The specification combines monthly information of 28 macroeconomic variables with quarterly information of real GDP in a mixed-frequency approach. Additionally, our setup includes a time-varying mean coefficient on the annual growth rate of real GDP to allow the model to incorporate prolonged periods of low growth, such as those experienced during secular stagnation episodes. The model produces reasonably good nowcasts of real GDP growth in pseudo out-of-sample exercises and is marginally more precise than a simple ARMA model.
本文提出了一个预测厄瓜多尔实际GDP年增长率的模型。该规范以混合频率方法将28个宏观经济变量的月度信息与实际GDP的季度信息相结合。此外,我们的设置包括实际GDP年增长率的时变平均系数,以允许模型纳入长期低增长时期,例如长期停滞时期的经历。该模型在伪样本外练习中产生了相当好的实际GDP增长的临近预测,并且比简单的ARMA模型稍微精确一些。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Latin American Economics eJournal
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