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Analyzing the Dynamics of School Dropout in Upper Secondary Education in Latin America: A Cohort Approach 拉丁美洲高中教育辍学动态分析:一种队列方法
Pub Date : 2015-03-26 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7223
R. Kattan, M. Székely
This study examines trends in school dropout at the upper secondary education level across Latin America over the past two decades, and attempts to identify factors influencing these rates. The methodology contributes to the existing literature by employing repeated cross sections of data to track the life cycle path of representative groups of individuals belonging to a birth cohort, by constructing and analyzing a synthetic data base of household survey data from 18 countries. A key finding is that while upper secondary enrollment rates increased in the region, the proportion of upper secondary age youth dropping out of school has remained persistently high, despite relatively favorable macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, the study traces the moment in the life cycle at which the majority of dropout takes place to reveal differences between countries. Finally, to explain the trends in upper secondary dropout rates, the study examines the impact of three groups of factors: (i) shifts in the cohort size and socioeconomic composition of the population eligible for entering upper secondary education; (b) the macroeconomic environment and labor market opportunities; and (c) the returns to schooling. A series of regressions shows that an important factor that may be driving higher dropout levels has been the higher numbers of students from poor socioeconomic backgrounds reaching the upper secondary level. In addition, high returns to education have been a pull factor into the schooling system, while, especially in countries where the majority of youth dropout early (prior to upper secondary education), the data confirm an apparent substitution effect due to the opportunity cost of forgoing employment opportunities. Overall, the findings confirm the importance of policy makers' focus on upper secondary education across Latin America and suggest implications for focusing the policy agenda.
本研究考察了过去二十年来拉丁美洲高中教育阶段的辍学率趋势,并试图确定影响这些比率的因素。该方法通过构建和分析来自18个国家的家庭调查数据的综合数据库,利用重复的横截面数据来跟踪属于出生队列的代表性个人群体的生命周期路径,从而为现有文献做出贡献。一项重要发现是,尽管该地区的高中入学率有所提高,但尽管宏观经济条件相对有利,高中适龄青少年的辍学率仍然居高不下。此外,该研究追踪了生命周期中大多数辍学发生的时刻,以揭示国家之间的差异。最后,为了解释高中辍学率的趋势,本研究考察了三组因素的影响:(i)有资格进入高中教育的人口的队列规模和社会经济构成的变化;(b)宏观经济环境和劳动力市场机会;(c)学校教育的回报。一系列回归表明,可能导致辍学率上升的一个重要因素是,有更多来自贫困社会经济背景的学生进入高中。此外,教育的高回报一直是学校制度的一个拉动因素,而特别是在大多数青年早早辍学(在高中教育之前)的国家,数据证实了由于放弃就业机会的机会成本而产生的明显替代效应。总体而言,研究结果证实了政策制定者关注拉丁美洲高中教育的重要性,并对政策议程的重点提出了建议。
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引用次数: 23
Macroeconomic and Financial Consequences of the Post-Crisis Government-Driven Credit Expansion in Brazil 危机后巴西政府驱动的信贷扩张的宏观经济和金融后果
Pub Date : 2015-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2581395
Marco Bonomo, Ricardo Brito, B. Martins
Government-driven credit played an important role in countervailing the private credit crunch in Brazil during the recent financial crisis. However, government credit concessions continued to expand after the economy recovered. This paper investigates some important features of this expansion using a huge repository of loan contracts between banks and firms, composing an unbalanced panel of almost 1 million firms between 2004 and 2012. The results show that larger, older and less risky firms have benefited most from the government-sponsored credit expansion. Additionally, although higher access to earmarked credit tends to lead to higher leverage, the effect on investment appears to be insignificant for publicly traded firms. Since interest rates on earmarked loans are lower than market interest rates, firms with higher access to this type of loan tend to lower the cost of debt.
在最近的金融危机期间,政府驱动的信贷在抵消巴西私人信贷紧缩方面发挥了重要作用。然而,在经济复苏后,政府信贷优惠继续扩大。本文利用一个庞大的银行和企业之间的贷款合同库来研究这种扩张的一些重要特征,该库构成了一个包含2004年至2012年间近100万家企业的不平衡面板。结果显示,规模更大、历史更悠久、风险更低的企业从政府支持的信贷扩张中获益最多。此外,尽管更容易获得指定信贷往往会导致更高的杠杆率,但对上市公司的投资影响似乎微不足道。由于专用贷款的利率低于市场利率,获得此类贷款的企业往往会降低债务成本。
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引用次数: 14
Explaining the 'Return of the State' in Middle-Income Countries: Employment Vulnerability, Income, and Preferences for Social Protection in Latin America 解释中等收入国家的“国家回归”:拉丁美洲的就业脆弱性、收入和社会保护偏好
Pub Date : 2015-02-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2567469
Matthew E. Carnes, Isabela Mares
In recent decades, developing and middle-income countries around the globe have adopted path-breaking reforms to their social protection systems. Among these countries, Latin America has been a pioneer, expanding the state’s commitment on behalf of low-income citizens in key policy areas. This paper undertakes two tasks. First, it documents the surprising extension of noncontributory social protection policies across many Latin American countries, highlighting how tax-financed programs have come to play a central role in a variety of settings. Second, it examines citizen-level preferences that support this trend, arguing that employment vulnerability and threats to income continuity play a decisive role in shaping demand for public, rather than private, social protection. Survey data on labor-market risks and social policy preferences from eighteen countries corroborates these claims. Our findings suggest that other countries undergoing labor-market strains may experience similar demands for a “return of the state” as a guarantor of social protection in the coming years.
近几十年来,全球发展中国家和中等收入国家对其社会保护制度进行了开创性的改革。在这些国家中,拉丁美洲一直是先驱,在关键政策领域扩大了国家对低收入公民的承诺。本文承担了两个任务。首先,报告记录了非缴费型社会保障政策在许多拉美国家的惊人扩展,突显了税收资助项目如何在各种情况下发挥核心作用。其次,它考察了支持这一趋势的公民层面的偏好,认为就业脆弱性和对收入连续性的威胁在形成对公共(而非私人)社会保护的需求方面发挥了决定性作用。来自18个国家的劳动力市场风险和社会政策偏好调查数据证实了这些说法。我们的研究结果表明,其他正在经历劳动力市场紧张的国家可能会在未来几年对“国家回归”作为社会保障的担保人提出类似的要求。
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引用次数: 17
Trading Area: A Study in Corporate Banking Retailing in Brazil 交易区域:巴西公司银行零售业务研究
Pub Date : 2015-01-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2549892
João Carlos Baptista Sousa, Heitor Takashi Kato, T. Martins, June Alison Westarb Cruz
Location is the most important factor in the success of a retailing store location. Now, modern technics using geographical data is being used to assess the potential of a site. One possibility is to study the trading area of a determined site to learn about the distance a store drawn the majority of its clients. The objective of this paper is to study the factors that affect the trading area of the branches of a corporate bank in the city of Curitiba, Brazil. The study used interviews and used a secondary data of the bank to compute de trade area of each branch. Using regression analysis, the study found that the number of the ATM and cashiers and the number os competitors branches in the 2 km radius of the branches were responsible to explain 30,8% of the trading area containing 60% of the clients of the branches.
地理位置是零售商店选址成功的最重要因素。现在,利用地理数据的现代技术正在被用来评估一个地点的潜力。一种可能性是研究确定地点的交易区域,以了解商店吸引大多数客户的距离。本文的目的是研究影响库里蒂巴市一家公司银行分支机构交易面积的因素。本研究采用访谈法,并利用银行的二次数据计算各分行的贸易面积。通过回归分析,研究发现,在网点半径2公里范围内,ATM机和收银员的数量以及竞争对手的网点数量占网点交易面积的30.8%,占网点客户的60%。
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引用次数: 0
The Zombie-Like Persistence of Failed Local Neoliberalism: The Case of UNDP's Local Economic Development Agency (LEDA) Network in Latin America 失败的地方新自由主义的僵尸般的持续:以联合国开发计划署在拉丁美洲的地方经济发展局(LEDA)网络为例
Pub Date : 2014-12-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2540301
M. Bateman
This paper examines the effectiveness of the Local Economic Development Agency (LEDA) model of institutional support for local economic development (LED), a model of LED that became very popular in the 1990’s as the neoliberal political project began its global ascendancy. The paper draws upon rich primary data from Latin America, and much secondary data from many other countries, to demonstrate that the LEDA model has been an almost wholly ineffective instrument through which to promote LED, if it has in fact not seriously compromised the LED operations of those communities in which has been established. The LEDA concept has almost no evidence to support the widespread claims that it has improved the LED function in developing countries. The next question then obviously begged is, Why then were so many international donor agencies, notably UNDP, willing to support the LEDA model, and for so long, if it was in fact a manifestly ineffective LED institution? The answer to this question, it is argued, is primarily to be found in the politics and ideology of the LEDAs, which reflect core neoliberal imperatives – that all development institutions must be private sector-led and financially self-sustainable. The manifestly ineffective LEDAs were therefore tolerated, and evidence of their ineffectiveness suppressed, because the LEDAs were the reflection of key neoliberal imperatives.
本文考察了地方经济发展局(LEDA)对地方经济发展(LED)的制度支持模式的有效性,这种模式在20世纪90年代随着新自由主义政治项目开始在全球占据优势地位而变得非常流行。本文借鉴了来自拉丁美洲的丰富的第一手数据,以及来自许多其他国家的大量二手数据,以证明LEDA模式是一种几乎完全无效的工具,通过它来促进LED,如果它实际上没有严重损害那些已经建立的社区的LED操作。LEDA概念几乎没有证据支持发展中国家普遍认为它改善了LED功能的说法。下一个问题显然是,如果LEDA实际上是一个明显无效的LEDA机构,那么为什么那么多国际捐助机构,特别是联合国开发计划署,愿意支持LEDA模式,并且持续了这么长时间?有人认为,这个问题的答案主要可以在leda的政治和意识形态中找到,这些政治和意识形态反映了新自由主义的核心要求——所有发展机构都必须由私营部门主导,并在财政上自我可持续。因此,明显无效的leda被容忍,其无效的证据被压制,因为leda反映了关键的新自由主义要求。
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引用次数: 4
Top Incomes in Brazil, 1933-2012: A Research Note 1933-2012年巴西最高收入:一份研究报告
Pub Date : 2014-12-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2537026
P. Souza
This research note presents estimates of top income shares for Brazil based on tax return data from 1933 to 2012, as well as a brief overview of personal income taxation in the country. I also discuss some of the major methodological challenges, especially pertaining to data availability, and contrast my preferred top incomes series with alternative possibilities as a robustness check. The main results do not suggest any clear-cut pattern towards rising or declining inequality over time. Income concentration at the top ebbs and flows at generally very high levels.
本研究报告根据1933年至2012年的纳税申报数据,提供了巴西最高收入份额的估计,以及该国个人所得税的简要概述。我还讨论了一些主要的方法挑战,特别是与数据可用性有关的挑战,并将我首选的最高收入系列与其他可能性进行对比,作为鲁棒性检查。主要结果并没有显示出不平等随着时间的推移会上升或下降的任何明确模式。顶层的收入集中度通常在非常高的水平上起起落落。
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引用次数: 18
Brazil's Place in the Global Economy 巴西在全球经济中的地位
Pub Date : 2014-11-30 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2507930
Arturo C. Porzecanski
Brazil is a country with long-standing ambitions for a major role in the world economy and in global governance, but its footprint in various measures of both remains relatively modest. On current trends, the gap between ambition and achievement will likely remain large, so we provide a critique of Brazil’s strategy in terms of economic statecraft; reflect on the wisdom of choices made in the past in terms of multilateralism vs. regionalism; and suggest a new approach that could enhance Brazil’s leadership role at the regional and global levels. It would involve the Brazilian government and business elites making clearer and more daring national choices, including shedding increasingly arcane and detrimental strategic alliances, in order to enable the country to become more involved with and thus influential on the global economic stage.
巴西长期以来一直雄心勃勃,希望在世界经济和全球治理中发挥重要作用,但它在这两方面的足迹都相对有限。按照目前的趋势,雄心与成就之间的差距可能仍然很大,因此我们从经济治国方略的角度对巴西的战略进行了批评;反思过去在多边主义与地区主义之间做出的明智选择;并提出一种新的方法,可以加强巴西在区域和全球层面的领导作用。这需要巴西政府和商界精英做出更明确、更大胆的国家选择,包括摆脱日益晦涩和有害的战略联盟,以使巴西能够更多地参与全球经济舞台,从而在全球经济舞台上发挥影响力。
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引用次数: 6
Las Asociaciones Públicas Privadas: Retraso en la Entrega de Predios (Private Public Partnerships: Delayed Delivery of Farms) 公私伙伴关系:延迟交付(公私伙伴关系:延迟交付农场)
Pub Date : 2014-11-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2962673
Manuel Lama, T. Vargas
Spanish Abstrct: Este articulo abordara los problemas de liberalizacion de terrenos en el Peru, enfocado en la concesion de la Red Vial Nro.6 (concesion de carretera mediante una APP). Es evidente que los problemas de entrega de terrenos son originados desde el diseno del Contrato de Concesion debido a que el Gobierno del Peru, con el proposito de lograr el crecimiento de la inversion a traves de proyectos de infraestructura, ha generado politicas sin evaluar los estudios sobre las entregas de terrenos y su impacto en la ejecucion de obras. Asimismo, el actual marco legal de expropiacion en el Peru (que incluye el marco legal de liberalizacion de terrenos) no permite al gobierno administrar eficientemente la entrega de terrenos). Bajo este contexto, se observa recurrente incumplimientos de entrega de terrenos en los plazos originalmente pactado por las Partes en los proyectos de carreteras concesionadas, estos incumplimientos tiene el principal efecto de retraso de las oportunidades de inversion establecidas en los contratos de concesion causando retraso en los beneficios que los usuarios perciben sobre la ejecucion de cada Obra en terminos de dinero y tiempo por ejemplo (costo de viajes, accidentes costo operativo vehicular y otros). English Abstract: This article will address the problems of land liberalization in Peru, focused on the concession of Road Network No. 6 (road concession through a PPP). It is evident that the problems of land delivery originate from the design of the Concession Agreement because the Government of Peru, in order to achieve the growth of the investment through infrastructure projects, has generated policies without evaluating the studies On land deliveries and their impact on the execution of works. Likewise, the current legal framework for expropriation in Peru (which includes the legal framework for land liberalization) does not allow the government to manage land delivery efficiently. In this context, there is a recurrent lack of land delivery in the terms originally agreed upon by the Parties in the concessioned highway projects, these non-compliance has the main effect of delaying the investment opportunities established in the concession contracts, causing delays in Benefits that users perceive on the execution of each Work in terms of money and time for example (cost of travel, accidents vehicular operating cost and others).
本文将讨论秘鲁的土地自由化问题,重点是6号公路网的特许权(通过应用程序的道路特许权)。显然引起的问题是土地交付合同从设计Concesion由于秘鲁政府与目的实现增长inversion是通过基础设施项目,引发政策没有评估交付研究领域和执行工作的影响。此外,秘鲁目前的征用法律框架(包括土地自由化的法律框架)不允许政府有效地管理土地转让)。经常在这方面,注意到土地期限最初交付的余地66,600公顷经济特许合同各方的公路项目,这些拖延的余地有主要影响合同中确定的inversion机会concesion造成的延迟惠益用户认为这是关于执行的每个工地的术语。例如(花费了金钱和时间旅行,事故和其他车辆运营成本)。摘要:本文将解决秘鲁土地自由化的问题,重点讨论第6号公路网特许权(PPP公路特许权)。It is evident that the problems of land delivery originate from the design of the Concession Agreement由于秘鲁政府的,in order to the growth of the investment through基础设施项目,你generated policies without评价研究》land deliveries及其impact On the execution of works。同样,秘鲁现行的征收法律框架(包括土地自由化法律框架)也不允许政府有效地管理土地转让。In this context, there is a经常性缺乏land delivery In the terms originally缔约方所商定的upon projects In the concessioned公路,这些综合汇编has the main effect of delaying concession contracts,先后设立的投资机会一书delays In that users perceive eligibility on the execution of每Work In terms of money and time for例如(cost of travel,事故车辆及cost and others)。
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引用次数: 0
Law and Economics in the Civil Law World: The Case of Brazilian Courts 民法世界中的法律与经济学:巴西法院的案例
Pub Date : 2014-10-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2514577
M. Pargendler, Bruno Meyerhof Salama
Conventional wisdom holds that economic analysis of law is either embryonic or nonexistent outside of the United States generally and in civil law jurisdictions in particular. Existing explanations for the assumed lack of interest in the application of economic reasoning to legal problems range from the different structure of legal education and academia outside of the United States to the peculiar characteristics of civilian legal systems. This paper challenges this view by documenting and explaining the growing use of economic reasoning by Brazilian courts. We argue that, given the ever-greater role of courts in the formulation of public policies, the application of legal principles and rules increasingly calls for a theory of human behavior (such as that provided by economics) to help foresee the likely aggregate consequences of different interpretations of the law. Consistent with the traditional role of civilian legal scholarship in providing guidance for the application of law by courts, the further development of law and economics in Brazil is therefore likely to be mostly driven by judicial demand.
传统观点认为,法律的经济分析在美国以外,特别是在民法管辖范围内,要么处于萌芽状态,要么根本不存在。对假定对将经济推理应用于法律问题缺乏兴趣的现有解释包括从美国以外的法律教育和学术界的不同结构到民事法律制度的独特特征。本文通过记录和解释巴西法院越来越多地使用经济推理来挑战这一观点。我们认为,鉴于法院在制定公共政策方面的作用越来越大,法律原则和规则的应用越来越需要人类行为理论(如经济学提供的理论)来帮助预测对法律的不同解释可能产生的总体后果。因此,与民间法律学术在为法院适用法律提供指导方面的传统作用相一致,巴西法律和经济学的进一步发展可能主要是由司法需求驱动的。
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引用次数: 3
Top Incomes in Brazil: Preliminary Results 巴西的最高收入:初步结果
Pub Date : 2014-10-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2511314
P. Souza, M. Medeiros, F. Castro
We present the preliminary results of our analysis of top incomes in Brazil from 2006 to 2012. We describe the evolution of the income shares of the top 1% and the top 5% and estimate a “tax-corrected†Gini coefficient. The data come from personal income tax returns, national accounts and household surveys. The results show that the levels of income inequality in Brazil are higher than those estimated using household surveys, and, contrary to what these surveys show, inequality did not fall over this period: the current trend is one of stability.
我们给出了对巴西2006年至2012年最高收入的初步分析结果。我们描述了收入最高的1%和收入最高的5%的收入份额的演变,并估计了€œtax-correctedâ€基尼系数。这些数据来自个人所得税申报表、国民账户和家庭调查。结果表明,巴西的收入不平等程度高于通过家庭调查估计的水平,而且,与这些调查显示的相反,不平等在这一时期并没有下降:目前的趋势是稳定的。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
Latin American Economics eJournal
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