We investigate company reactions to the threat of reputational losses. To do so, we leverage the introduction of a naming-and-shaming policy for tax debt enforcement in Slovenia in 2012. The policy was announced four months before its implementation, which allows us to separate responses to the threat of shaming from the responses to actual shaming. Our extensive administrative tax data cover taxes owed and paid for the universe of taxpayers in Slovenia. Based on a quasi-experimental research design, we document that corporations significantly reduce their tax debt in response to the threat of shaming, particularly in industries in which reputational concerns are likely to be important. Self-employed individuals also reduce their tax debt but to a lesser extent. The publication of the first naming-and-shaming list further reduced tax debt among shamed taxpayers. However, the effect of actual shaming is marginal compared with that of the threat of shaming and reduces quickly. Previously compliant taxpayers remained compliant throughout. This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, decision analysis.
{"title":"Shaming for Tax Enforcement","authors":"Nadja Dwenger, L. Treber","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2021.4295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4295","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate company reactions to the threat of reputational losses. To do so, we leverage the introduction of a naming-and-shaming policy for tax debt enforcement in Slovenia in 2012. The policy was announced four months before its implementation, which allows us to separate responses to the threat of shaming from the responses to actual shaming. Our extensive administrative tax data cover taxes owed and paid for the universe of taxpayers in Slovenia. Based on a quasi-experimental research design, we document that corporations significantly reduce their tax debt in response to the threat of shaming, particularly in industries in which reputational concerns are likely to be important. Self-employed individuals also reduce their tax debt but to a lesser extent. The publication of the first naming-and-shaming list further reduced tax debt among shamed taxpayers. However, the effect of actual shaming is marginal compared with that of the threat of shaming and reduces quickly. Previously compliant taxpayers remained compliant throughout. This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, decision analysis.","PeriodicalId":18208,"journal":{"name":"Manag. Sci.","volume":"89 2 1","pages":"8202-8233"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91099989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We explore the relationship between organizational religious affiliation and wrongdoing using a unique data set on inspections in 16,101 nursing homes over five years. We find that violations of standards of care are more severe in religiously affiliated homes. We track this difference to a reduction in the likelihood that organizational members file complaints rather than poorer behaving caretakers or differential treatment by enforcement agents. Fewer complaints increase the time that religiously affiliated homes operate without monitoring, which allows violations to escalate before they are detected. Our findings highlight an understudied process in the literature on organizational wrongdoing: Although much attention has been devoted to how inspector bias can lead to incorrect conclusions about the true rates of wrongdoing across organizations, religious affiliation can lead to similarly incorrect conclusions—but through an internal organizational process. This paper was accepted by Lamar Pierce, organizations.
{"title":"Religious Affiliation and Wrongdoing: Evidence from U.S. Nursing Homes","authors":"Aharon Mohliver, Amandine Ody-Brasier","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2022.4350","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4350","url":null,"abstract":"We explore the relationship between organizational religious affiliation and wrongdoing using a unique data set on inspections in 16,101 nursing homes over five years. We find that violations of standards of care are more severe in religiously affiliated homes. We track this difference to a reduction in the likelihood that organizational members file complaints rather than poorer behaving caretakers or differential treatment by enforcement agents. Fewer complaints increase the time that religiously affiliated homes operate without monitoring, which allows violations to escalate before they are detected. Our findings highlight an understudied process in the literature on organizational wrongdoing: Although much attention has been devoted to how inspector bias can lead to incorrect conclusions about the true rates of wrongdoing across organizations, religious affiliation can lead to similarly incorrect conclusions—but through an internal organizational process. This paper was accepted by Lamar Pierce, organizations.","PeriodicalId":18208,"journal":{"name":"Manag. Sci.","volume":"5 1","pages":"533-554"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82431709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dealers can choose between two intermediation methods: providing immediacy to customers using their own inventory and making matches between customers’ order flows. We show that dealers have an incentive to prioritize inventory turnover for immediacy provision rather than making matches between customers. Compared with a counterfactual scenario without this incentive, dealers in equilibrium provide immediacy to more customers in order to extract extra rents. Compared with the counterfactual, this incentive decreases equilibrium price for immediacy but increases the bid–ask spread. The incentive to prioritize immediacy provision lowers welfare for assets with high substitutability but raises welfare for assets with low substitutability. Our analysis has potential policy implications for the Volcker rule, which can be viewed as the counterfactual. This paper was accepted by Agostino Capponi, finance.
{"title":"Immediacy Provision and Matchmaking","authors":"Yu An, Zeyu Zheng","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2022.4355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4355","url":null,"abstract":"Dealers can choose between two intermediation methods: providing immediacy to customers using their own inventory and making matches between customers’ order flows. We show that dealers have an incentive to prioritize inventory turnover for immediacy provision rather than making matches between customers. Compared with a counterfactual scenario without this incentive, dealers in equilibrium provide immediacy to more customers in order to extract extra rents. Compared with the counterfactual, this incentive decreases equilibrium price for immediacy but increases the bid–ask spread. The incentive to prioritize immediacy provision lowers welfare for assets with high substitutability but raises welfare for assets with low substitutability. Our analysis has potential policy implications for the Volcker rule, which can be viewed as the counterfactual. This paper was accepted by Agostino Capponi, finance.","PeriodicalId":18208,"journal":{"name":"Manag. Sci.","volume":"1 1","pages":"1245-1263"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80883255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Bazhutov, A. Betzer, François Brochet, Markus Doumet, P. Limbach
Using annual survey-based investor relations (IR) data for a panel of European companies, we document that the supply and effectiveness of IR varies with country- and firm-level demand. Relative to their industry peers, firms from insider-oriented countries have larger IR staff, which predicts better IR rankings. Better IR is associated with greater visibility, information assimilation, and valuation, with visibility and assimilation being significantly greater for firms from insider-oriented countries. Within such countries, firms with greater outsider orientation have higher capital market benefits. Furthermore, using Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II as a shock to analyst coverage, we find an incrementally larger association between IR and visibility in insider-oriented countries after 2017. Overall, the evidence suggests that the supply of IR in insider-oriented markets has reached a high level, acting as a viable mechanism to improve firms’ information environment. However, within those countries, IR demand still varies significantly, with outsider-oriented firms showing greater IR effectiveness. This paper was accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting.
{"title":"The Supply and Effectiveness of Investor Relations in Insider- vs. Outsider-Oriented Markets","authors":"D. Bazhutov, A. Betzer, François Brochet, Markus Doumet, P. Limbach","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2022.4368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4368","url":null,"abstract":"Using annual survey-based investor relations (IR) data for a panel of European companies, we document that the supply and effectiveness of IR varies with country- and firm-level demand. Relative to their industry peers, firms from insider-oriented countries have larger IR staff, which predicts better IR rankings. Better IR is associated with greater visibility, information assimilation, and valuation, with visibility and assimilation being significantly greater for firms from insider-oriented countries. Within such countries, firms with greater outsider orientation have higher capital market benefits. Furthermore, using Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II as a shock to analyst coverage, we find an incrementally larger association between IR and visibility in insider-oriented countries after 2017. Overall, the evidence suggests that the supply of IR in insider-oriented markets has reached a high level, acting as a viable mechanism to improve firms’ information environment. However, within those countries, IR demand still varies significantly, with outsider-oriented firms showing greater IR effectiveness. This paper was accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting.","PeriodicalId":18208,"journal":{"name":"Manag. Sci.","volume":"1 1","pages":"660-683"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75123784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hussein El Hajj, D. R. Bish, E. Bish, Denise M. Kay
Newborn screening (NBS) is a state-level initiative that detects life-threatening genetic disorders for which early treatment can substantially improve health outcomes. Cystic fibrosis (CF) is among the most prevalent disorders in NBS. CF can be caused by a large number of mutation variants to the CFTR gene. Most states use a multitest CF screening process that includes a genetic test (DNA). However, due to cost concerns, DNA is used only on a small subset of newborns (based on a low-cost biomarker test with low classification accuracy), and only for a small subset of CF-causing variants. To overcome the cost barriers of expanded genetic testing, we explore a novel approach, of multipanel pooled DNA testing. This approach leads not only to a novel optimization problem (variant selection for screening, variant partition into multipanels, and pool size determination for each panel), but also to novel CF NBS processes. We establish key structural properties of optimal multipanel pooled DNA designs; develop a methodology that generates a family of optimal designs at different costs; and characterize the conditions under which a 1-panel versus a multipanel design is optimal. This methodology can assist decision-makers to design a screening process, considering the cost versus accuracy trade-off. Our case study, based on published CF NBS data from the state of New York, indicates that the multipanel and pooling aspects of genetic testing work synergistically, and the proposed NBS processes have the potential to substantially improve both the efficiency and accuracy of current practices. This paper was accepted by Stefan Scholtes, healthcare management science.
{"title":"Novel Pooling Strategies for Genetic Testing, with Application to Newborn Screening","authors":"Hussein El Hajj, D. R. Bish, E. Bish, Denise M. Kay","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2021.4289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4289","url":null,"abstract":"Newborn screening (NBS) is a state-level initiative that detects life-threatening genetic disorders for which early treatment can substantially improve health outcomes. Cystic fibrosis (CF) is among the most prevalent disorders in NBS. CF can be caused by a large number of mutation variants to the CFTR gene. Most states use a multitest CF screening process that includes a genetic test (DNA). However, due to cost concerns, DNA is used only on a small subset of newborns (based on a low-cost biomarker test with low classification accuracy), and only for a small subset of CF-causing variants. To overcome the cost barriers of expanded genetic testing, we explore a novel approach, of multipanel pooled DNA testing. This approach leads not only to a novel optimization problem (variant selection for screening, variant partition into multipanels, and pool size determination for each panel), but also to novel CF NBS processes. We establish key structural properties of optimal multipanel pooled DNA designs; develop a methodology that generates a family of optimal designs at different costs; and characterize the conditions under which a 1-panel versus a multipanel design is optimal. This methodology can assist decision-makers to design a screening process, considering the cost versus accuracy trade-off. Our case study, based on published CF NBS data from the state of New York, indicates that the multipanel and pooling aspects of genetic testing work synergistically, and the proposed NBS processes have the potential to substantially improve both the efficiency and accuracy of current practices. This paper was accepted by Stefan Scholtes, healthcare management science.","PeriodicalId":18208,"journal":{"name":"Manag. Sci.","volume":"115 1","pages":"7994-8014"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80317007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The growing influence of internet platforms acting as content aggregators is one of the most important challenges facing the media industry. We develop a simple model to understand the impact of third-party content bundling by a social platform that has a monopoly on showing user-generated content to consumers. In our model, consumers can access news either directly through a newspaper’s website or indirectly through a platform, which also offers social content. We show that content bundling, when unilaterally implemented by the platform, tends to harm publishers and to increase the dispersion of quality across outlets, with initially high-quality outlets investing more and low-quality ones investing less. With many heterogenous newspapers, the result is robust even if each newspaper can prevent the platform from using its content. When content bundling follows an agreement between the platform and publisher, its effects are reversed, as publishers’ profits go up while quality dispersion goes down. In a setup with heterogeneous consumers, we also show that the platform’s ability to personalize the mix of content it shows to users induces publishers to invest more in the quality of their content. This paper was accepted by Dmitri Kuksov, marketing.
{"title":"Social Media and News: Content Bundling and News Quality","authors":"Alexandre de Cornière, M. Sarvary","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2022.4341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4341","url":null,"abstract":"The growing influence of internet platforms acting as content aggregators is one of the most important challenges facing the media industry. We develop a simple model to understand the impact of third-party content bundling by a social platform that has a monopoly on showing user-generated content to consumers. In our model, consumers can access news either directly through a newspaper’s website or indirectly through a platform, which also offers social content. We show that content bundling, when unilaterally implemented by the platform, tends to harm publishers and to increase the dispersion of quality across outlets, with initially high-quality outlets investing more and low-quality ones investing less. With many heterogenous newspapers, the result is robust even if each newspaper can prevent the platform from using its content. When content bundling follows an agreement between the platform and publisher, its effects are reversed, as publishers’ profits go up while quality dispersion goes down. In a setup with heterogeneous consumers, we also show that the platform’s ability to personalize the mix of content it shows to users induces publishers to invest more in the quality of their content. This paper was accepted by Dmitri Kuksov, marketing.","PeriodicalId":18208,"journal":{"name":"Manag. Sci.","volume":"82 1","pages":"162-178"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83965205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recent studies have proposed a large set of powerful anomaly-based factors in the stock market. This study examines the role of investor inattention in the corresponding anomalies underlying these factors and other underreaction-related anomalies. Using media coverage as a proxy for investor attention, we show that the anomalies underlying many recently proposed prominent factors are much more pronounced among firms with low media coverage in portfolio-formation periods. In addition, we find many other prominent anomalies that previous literature has attributed to underreaction also tend to perform much better among firms with low media coverage. The average Fama-French five-factor alpha spread of these anomalies is about 0.97% per month among firms with low news coverage and only 0.24% per month among firms with high news coverage. Moreover, most of the alpha spread comes from the short leg of the anomalies and from the firms that are more difficult to arbitrage. Overall, our evidence indicates that investor inattention at least partially drives many of the recently proposed factors. This paper was accepted by Haoxiang Zhu, finance.
{"title":"Attention and Underreaction-Related Anomalies","authors":"Xin Chen, Wei He, Libin Tao, Jianfeng Yu","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2022.4332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4332","url":null,"abstract":"Recent studies have proposed a large set of powerful anomaly-based factors in the stock market. This study examines the role of investor inattention in the corresponding anomalies underlying these factors and other underreaction-related anomalies. Using media coverage as a proxy for investor attention, we show that the anomalies underlying many recently proposed prominent factors are much more pronounced among firms with low media coverage in portfolio-formation periods. In addition, we find many other prominent anomalies that previous literature has attributed to underreaction also tend to perform much better among firms with low media coverage. The average Fama-French five-factor alpha spread of these anomalies is about 0.97% per month among firms with low news coverage and only 0.24% per month among firms with high news coverage. Moreover, most of the alpha spread comes from the short leg of the anomalies and from the firms that are more difficult to arbitrage. Overall, our evidence indicates that investor inattention at least partially drives many of the recently proposed factors. This paper was accepted by Haoxiang Zhu, finance.","PeriodicalId":18208,"journal":{"name":"Manag. Sci.","volume":"42 1","pages":"636-659"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77650834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate how historical price information (e.g., accessed through price trackers) influences consumers’ purchase decisions and thus affects a firm’s dynamic pricing strategy. We first show that when consumers with heterogeneous tastes are not informed about historical prices, the monopolist charges a high regular price for most of the time and periodically holds low-price sales. Then we consider the case in which a small fraction of consumers (such as price tracker users) become informed of historical prices. At the new equilibrium, the monopolist lowers the regular price and advances sales, implying shorter price cycles, more frequent sales, and a positive spillover effect of price tracker users’ informational advantage on the rest of uninformed consumers. We conclude with a discussion of the impact of price trackers on firms and other relevant managerial implications of the model. This paper was accepted by Dmitri Kuksov, marketing.
{"title":"What the Past Tells About the Future: Historical Prices in the Durable Goods Market","authors":"Zheng Gong, Jin-wu Huang, Yuxin Chen","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2022.4309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4309","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate how historical price information (e.g., accessed through price trackers) influences consumers’ purchase decisions and thus affects a firm’s dynamic pricing strategy. We first show that when consumers with heterogeneous tastes are not informed about historical prices, the monopolist charges a high regular price for most of the time and periodically holds low-price sales. Then we consider the case in which a small fraction of consumers (such as price tracker users) become informed of historical prices. At the new equilibrium, the monopolist lowers the regular price and advances sales, implying shorter price cycles, more frequent sales, and a positive spillover effect of price tracker users’ informational advantage on the rest of uninformed consumers. We conclude with a discussion of the impact of price trackers on firms and other relevant managerial implications of the model. This paper was accepted by Dmitri Kuksov, marketing.","PeriodicalId":18208,"journal":{"name":"Manag. Sci.","volume":"21 1","pages":"8857-8871"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83889844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recent field experiments demonstrate that advice, mentorship, and feedback from randomly assigned peers improve entrepreneurial performance. These results raise a natural question: what is preventing entrepreneurs and managers from forming these peer connections themselves? We argue that entrepreneurs may be under-networked because they lack the necessary social skills—the ability to communicate effectively and interact collaboratively with new acquaintances—that allow them to match efficiently with knowledgeable peers. We use a field experiment in the context of a business training program in Togo to test if a short social skills training module increases the number and complementarity of peers that participants choose to learn from. We find that social skills training led entrepreneurs to match with 50% more peers and that more of those matches were based on complementary managerial skill. Finally, the training also increased entrepreneurs’ monthly profits by approximately 20%. Further analyses point to improvements in networking and advice as the drivers of performance improvements. Our findings suggest that social skills help entrepreneurs build relationships that create value for both themselves and their peers. This paper was accepted by Alfonso Gambardella, business strategy.
{"title":"Social Skills Improve Business Performance: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial with Entrepreneurs in Togo","authors":"S. Dimitriadis, Rembrand Koning","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2022.4334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4334","url":null,"abstract":"Recent field experiments demonstrate that advice, mentorship, and feedback from randomly assigned peers improve entrepreneurial performance. These results raise a natural question: what is preventing entrepreneurs and managers from forming these peer connections themselves? We argue that entrepreneurs may be under-networked because they lack the necessary social skills—the ability to communicate effectively and interact collaboratively with new acquaintances—that allow them to match efficiently with knowledgeable peers. We use a field experiment in the context of a business training program in Togo to test if a short social skills training module increases the number and complementarity of peers that participants choose to learn from. We find that social skills training led entrepreneurs to match with 50% more peers and that more of those matches were based on complementary managerial skill. Finally, the training also increased entrepreneurs’ monthly profits by approximately 20%. Further analyses point to improvements in networking and advice as the drivers of performance improvements. Our findings suggest that social skills help entrepreneurs build relationships that create value for both themselves and their peers. This paper was accepted by Alfonso Gambardella, business strategy.","PeriodicalId":18208,"journal":{"name":"Manag. Sci.","volume":"943 1","pages":"8635-8657"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85566132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recently, the development of ransomware strains and changes in the marketplace for malware have greatly reduced the entry barrier for attackers to conduct large-scale ransomware attacks. In this paper, we examine how this mode of cyberattack impacts software vendors and consumer behavior. When victims face an added option to mitigate losses via a ransom payment, both the equilibrium market size and the vendor’s profit under optimal pricing can actually increase in the ransom demand. Profit can also increase in the scale of residual losses following a ransom payment (which reflect the trustworthiness of the ransomware operator). We show that for intermediate levels of risk, the vendor restricts software adoption by substantially hiking up price. This lies in stark contrast to outcomes in a benchmark case involving traditional malware (non-ransomware) where the vendor decreases price as security risk increases. Social welfare is higher under ransomware compared with the benchmark in both sufficiently low- and high-risk settings. However, for intermediate risk, it is better from a social standpoint if consumers do not have an option to pay ransom. We also show that the expected ransom paid is nonmonotone in risk, increasing when risk is moderate despite a decreasing ransom-paying population. For ransomware attacks on other vectors (beyond patchable vulnerabilities), there can still be an incentive to hike price. However, market size and profits instead weakly decrease in the ransom amount. When studying a generalized model that includes both traditional and ransomware attacks, our results remain robust to a wide range of scenarios, including threat landscapes where ransomware has only a small presence. This paper was accepted by Kartik Hosanagar, information systems.
{"title":"Economics of Ransomware: Risk Interdependence and Large-Scale Attacks","authors":"T. August, D. Dao, M. F. Niculescu","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2022.4300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4300","url":null,"abstract":"Recently, the development of ransomware strains and changes in the marketplace for malware have greatly reduced the entry barrier for attackers to conduct large-scale ransomware attacks. In this paper, we examine how this mode of cyberattack impacts software vendors and consumer behavior. When victims face an added option to mitigate losses via a ransom payment, both the equilibrium market size and the vendor’s profit under optimal pricing can actually increase in the ransom demand. Profit can also increase in the scale of residual losses following a ransom payment (which reflect the trustworthiness of the ransomware operator). We show that for intermediate levels of risk, the vendor restricts software adoption by substantially hiking up price. This lies in stark contrast to outcomes in a benchmark case involving traditional malware (non-ransomware) where the vendor decreases price as security risk increases. Social welfare is higher under ransomware compared with the benchmark in both sufficiently low- and high-risk settings. However, for intermediate risk, it is better from a social standpoint if consumers do not have an option to pay ransom. We also show that the expected ransom paid is nonmonotone in risk, increasing when risk is moderate despite a decreasing ransom-paying population. For ransomware attacks on other vectors (beyond patchable vulnerabilities), there can still be an incentive to hike price. However, market size and profits instead weakly decrease in the ransom amount. When studying a generalized model that includes both traditional and ransomware attacks, our results remain robust to a wide range of scenarios, including threat landscapes where ransomware has only a small presence. This paper was accepted by Kartik Hosanagar, information systems.","PeriodicalId":18208,"journal":{"name":"Manag. Sci.","volume":"50 1","pages":"8979-9002"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87415712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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