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Dynamic Learning in Strategic Pricing Games 战略定价博弈中的动态学习
Pub Date : 2020-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3579123
J. Birge
In monopoly pricing situations, firms should optimally vary prices to learn demand. The variation must be sufficiently high to ensure complete learning. In competitive situations, however, varying prices provides information to competitors and may reduce the value of learning. Such situations may arise in the pricing of new products such as pharmaceuticals and digital goods. This paper shows that firms in competition can learn efficiently in certain equilibrium actions which involve adding noise to myopic estimation and best-response strategies. The paper then discusses how this may not be the case when actions reveal information quickly to competitors. The paper provides a setting where this effect can be strong enough to stop learning so that firms optimally reduce any variation in prices and choose not to learn demand. The result can be that the selling firms achieve a collaborative outcome instead of a competitive equilibrium. The result has implications for policies that restrict price changes or require disclosures.
在垄断定价情况下,企业应该最优地改变价格以了解需求。变化必须足够大,以确保完全学习。然而,在竞争情况下,不同的价格为竞争对手提供了信息,并可能降低学习的价值。这种情况可能出现在新产品(如药品和数字产品)的定价中。本文表明,竞争企业在某些均衡行为中可以有效地学习,这些均衡行为涉及在近视性估计和最佳对策策略中加入噪声。然后,本文讨论了当行动迅速向竞争对手透露信息时,情况可能并非如此。本文提供了一个环境,在这个环境中,这种效应可以强大到足以停止学习,从而使企业最优地减少价格的任何变化,并选择不学习需求。结果可能是,销售公司实现了合作的结果,而不是竞争的均衡。这一结果对限制价格变动或要求披露信息的政策具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 2
A Great New World? China’s Industrial Land Market Post-2007 一个伟大的新世界?2007年后中国工业用地市场
Pub Date : 2020-04-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3573226
Wen-Chuan Tian, Zhi Wang, Qinghua Zhang
Market forces played a negligible role in the allocation of industrial land before 2007 in China. Since 2007, the central government has launched a reform that strictly implemented two policies: 1) all the urban industrial land must be sold through public auction; 2) there is a minimum land price (MLP) constraint on industrial land transaction. This paper investigates the micro-foundations of the industrial land market in urban China post-2007. In this market, the local government as monopoly supplier auctions off industrial land in order to gather land sales revenues and boost local industrial development, subject to an MLP regulation from the central government. Using a large land-transaction data matched with county-industry-specific characteristics, our empirical analysis finds that: first, the industrial land markets have been fledging in China, fostered by the reform since 2007. Specifically, in contrast to before the reform, the industrial land sale prices become pretty responsive to both the demand factors (e.g., industry agglomeration and coagglomeration, local economic development) and the supply factors (land cost) of the market; moreover, in terms of quantity, more land is sold to industries with higher degree of specialization or concentration in a county, suggesting improved allocation efficiency. Second, local governments selectively support industries in their land supply decisions. We find that local governments tend to sell more land at lower prices to those industries that are strategically important (classified as priority industries) or that can bring higher coagglomeration externalities to a county. Third, although about 70% of land transactions in our sample are not bounded by the central government’s minimum price constraints, still the MLP constraints are binding in 55,000 land transactions amounting to a total land area of 2,824 square kilometers, and costly downward adjustments are involved there. Our analysis reveals different preferences between local governments and the central government. Compared with local governments, the central government tends to value less the coagglomeration externality in developed regions. Also the central government tends to be more concerned about the social cost of land supply than local governments in general.
2007年以前,市场力量在中国工业用地配置中的作用微不足道。自2007年以来,中央政府启动了一项改革,严格执行两项政策:1)所有城市工业用地必须通过公开拍卖出售;2)工业用地交易存在最低地价约束。本文研究了2007年后中国城市工业用地市场的微观基础。在这个市场中,地方政府作为垄断供应商拍卖工业用地,以获得土地销售收入,促进地方工业发展,并受到中央政府的MLP监管。利用与县域产业特征相匹配的大型土地交易数据,实证分析发现:第一,在2007年以来改革的推动下,中国工业用地市场初具规模;具体而言,与改革前相比,工业用地出让价格对市场需求因素(如产业集聚与凝聚、地方经济发展)和市场供给因素(土地成本)的响应都较好;此外,从数量上看,一个县域内更多的土地被出售给专业化或集中度较高的行业,表明配置效率提高。其次,地方政府在土地供应决策中有选择地支持产业。我们发现,地方政府倾向于以较低的价格将更多的土地出售给那些具有战略重要性的产业(被列为优先产业)或能够给县域带来较高集聚外部性的产业。第三,尽管我们样本中约70%的土地交易不受中央政府最低价格约束的约束,但在55,000笔土地交易中,土地总面积为2,824平方公里,MLP约束仍然具有约束力,并且涉及昂贵的向下调整。我们的分析揭示了地方政府和中央政府的不同偏好。与地方政府相比,中央政府往往不重视发达地区的集聚外部性。此外,中央政府往往比地方政府更关心土地供应的社会成本。
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引用次数: 1
Multi-Stage Supply Chain with Production Uncertainty 具有生产不确定性的多阶段供应链
Pub Date : 2020-04-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3709578
Q. Feng, Zhongjie Ma, Zhaofang Mao, J. Shanthikumar
With supply chains becoming increasingly extended, the uncertainties in the upstream production process can greatly affect the material flows that aim toward meeting the uncertain demands at the downstream. We analyze a two-location system in which the upstream production facility experiences random capacities and the downstream store faces random demands. Different from the widely used approach that seeks the decomposition of the profit function based on the echelon inventories, our approach builds on the notions of stochastic functions, in particular, the stochastic linearity in midpoint and the directionally concave order. With these notions, we establish the concavity and submodularity of the profit functions in the transformed decision variables. In general, it is optimal to follow a two-level state-dependent threshold policy such that an order is issued at a location if and only if the inventory position of that location is below the corresponding threshold. In the special case where the salvage values are linear in the ending inventories, the profit function becomes separable in the inventory positions, and the optimal policy reduces to the echelon base-stock policy. The effect of the uncertain capacity and demand depends critically on whether the production capacity is limited or ample in relation to the demand. Only when the capacity and the demand do not differ much, the upstream facility carries positive inventory; otherwise, all units produced are shipped immediately toward the downstream. We further extend our analysis to systems with general stochastic production functions and with multiple locations.
随着供应链的日益延伸,上游生产过程中的不确定性会极大地影响旨在满足下游不确定需求的物料流。我们分析了一个两地点系统,其中上游生产设施经历随机产能,下游存储面临随机需求。与广泛使用的基于梯队库存寻求利润函数分解的方法不同,我们的方法建立在随机函数的概念上,特别是中点的随机线性和方向凹阶。利用这些概念,我们建立了转换后的决策变量中利润函数的凹性和子模块性。通常,遵循两级状态相关阈值策略是最优的,这样当且仅当该位置的库存位置低于相应的阈值时,才会在该位置发出订单。在期末库存残值为线性的特殊情况下,利润函数在库存位置上变得可分离,最优策略缩减为梯队基础库存策略。不确定的产能和需求的影响主要取决于相对于需求而言,生产能力是有限的还是充足的。只有当产能和需求相差不大时,上游设施才会有正库存;否则,所有生产的产品将立即运往下游。我们进一步将我们的分析扩展到具有一般随机生产函数和多个位置的系统。
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引用次数: 1
Auctions vs. Negotiations in Vertically Related Markets 垂直相关市场中的拍卖与谈判
Pub Date : 2020-04-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3569652
Emanuele Bacchiega, Oliver Bonroy, E. Petrakis
In a two-tier industry with bottleneck upstream and two downstream firms producing vertically differentiated goods, we identify conditions under which the upstream supplier chooses exclusive or non-exclusive negotiations, or an English auction to sell its essential input. Auctioning off a two-part tariff contract is optimal for the supplier when its bar- gaining power is low and the final goods are not too differentiated. Otherwise, the supplier enters into exclusive or non-exclusive negotiations with the downstream firm(s). Finally, in contrast to previous findings, an auction is never welfare superior to negotiations.
在具有上游瓶颈和两个下游公司生产垂直差异化产品的两层产业中,我们确定了上游供应商选择排他性或非排他性谈判或英国拍卖出售其基本投入的条件。对于供应商来说,拍卖两部分电价合同是最优的,因为它的收益能力较低,最终产品没有太大的差异。否则,供应商将与下游公司进行排他性或非排他性谈判。最后,与之前的发现相反,拍卖从来都不是比谈判更有利的福利。
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引用次数: 0
Value Loss in Allocation Systems with Provider Guarantees 具有提供者保证的分配系统中的价值损失
Pub Date : 2020-03-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3351509
Y. Gur, D. Iancu, Xavier S. Warnes
Many operational settings share the following three features: (i) a centralized planning system allocates tasks to workers or service providers, (ii) the providers generate value by completing the tasks, and (iii) the completion of tasks influences the providers’ welfare. In such cases, the planning system’s allocations often entail trade-offs between the service providers’ welfare and the total value that is generated (or that accrues to the system itself), and concern arises that allocations that are good under one metric may perform poorly under the other. We propose a broad framework for quantifying the magnitude of value losses when allocations are restricted to satisfy certain desirable guarantees to the service providers. We consider a general class of guarantees that includes many considerations of practical interest arising (e.g., in the design of sustainable two-sided markets) in workforce welfare and compensation, or in sourcing and payments in supply chains, among other application domains. We derive tight bounds on the relative value loss and show that this loss is limited for any restriction included in our general class. Our analysis shows that when many providers are present, the largest losses are driven by fairness considerations, whereas when few providers are present, they are driven by the heterogeneity in the providers’ effectiveness to generate value; when providers are perfectly homogenous, the losses never exceed 50%. We study additional loss drivers and find that less variability in the value of jobs and a more balanced supply-demand ratio may lead to larger losses. Lastly, we demonstrate numerically using both real-world and synthetic data that the loss can be small in several cases of practical interest. This paper was accepted by Chung Piaw Teo, optimization.
许多操作设置具有以下三个特征:(i)集中计划系统将任务分配给工人或服务提供者,(ii)提供者通过完成任务产生价值,以及(iii)任务的完成影响提供者的福利。在这种情况下,规划系统的分配通常需要在服务提供者的福利和产生的总价值(或对系统本身的积累)之间进行权衡,并且出现了在一种度量下表现良好的分配可能在另一种度量下表现不佳的担忧。当分配受到限制以满足对服务提供者的某些理想保证时,我们提出了一个广泛的框架,用于量化价值损失的程度。我们考虑了一类一般的保证,其中包括在劳动力福利和补偿中产生的许多实际利益考虑(例如,在可持续双边市场的设计中),或在供应链中的采购和支付中,以及其他应用领域。我们推导了相对值损失的严格界限,并表明这种损失对于包括在我们的一般类中的任何限制都是有限的。我们的分析表明,当服务提供者众多时,最大的损失是出于公平考虑,而当服务提供者较少时,最大的损失是由服务提供者产生价值的有效性的异质性驱动的;当供应商完全同质化时,损失绝不会超过50%。我们研究了额外的损失驱动因素,发现工作价值的变异性越小,供需比例越平衡,可能导致更大的损失。最后,我们使用真实世界和合成数据在数值上证明,在一些实际情况下,损失可能很小。这篇论文被Chung Piaw Teo接受,优化。
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引用次数: 3
Neutrality of Buyer and Seller Commissions to Auction House Profit 买卖双方佣金对拍卖行利润的中立性
Pub Date : 2020-03-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3557777
Toshihiro Tsuchihashi, Yusuke Zennyo
This paper presents an examination of optimal revenue management of a monopoly auction house through which a seller sells goods via a second-price auction. The house charges commissions to both the buyer and seller. Results demonstrate that a continuum of combinations of optimal buyer and seller commission rates exists, all of which yield the same expected profit of the auction house. Additionally, we discuss several possible factors that lead to the prevailing custom of zero buyer commission, such as commission aversion of buyers, the auction house’s incentive to maximize the hammer price, and seller and buyer preferences for apparently lowered commission rates.
本文研究了垄断拍卖行的最优收益管理问题,卖方通过二次价格拍卖出售商品。这房子向买卖双方都收取佣金。结果表明,最优买方和卖方佣金率的组合存在连续统,它们都能产生相同的拍卖行期望利润。此外,我们还讨论了导致零佣金习惯盛行的几个可能因素,如买家的佣金厌恶,拍卖行最大化拍价的动机,以及卖家和买家对明显降低的佣金率的偏好。
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引用次数: 0
Una estimación de la Productividad Total Factorial en Colombia a nivel de departamentos y divisiones industriales (An estimate of Total Factorial Productivity in Colombia at the level of departments and industrial divisions) 哥伦比亚部门和工业部门一级的总要素生产率估计(哥伦比亚部门和工业部门一级的总要素生产率估计)
Pub Date : 2020-03-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3552706
Mateo Andrés Rivera-Arbeláez, A. Torres
Este trabajo realiza una estimacion de la Productividad Total Factorial para 11 departamentos y 20 divisiones industriales en Colombia durante el periodo 2012-2016, utilizando informacion de la Encuesta Anual Manufacturera del DANE y usando el metodo semi-parametrico propuesto por Levinsohn y Petrin (2003) para este fin. Los resultados muestran que los departamentos de Bolivar, Bogota, Cundinamarca y Antioquia presentaron niveles de productividad superiores a la media nacional, mientras Valle del Cauca, Cauca y Tolima, fueron los de mas bajo desempeno. En cuanto a sectores industriales, se destacan los altos niveles de productividad en la produccion de farmaceuticos y sustancias quimicas medicinales; aparatos y equipo electrico y fabricacion de sustancias y productos quimicos. Por el contrario, sectores tradicionales como fabricacion de productos textiles, elaboracion de alimentos, productos metalurgicos basicos y elaboracion de bebidas, presentaron bajos niveles de productividad, comparado con la media nacional. Estos resultados ponen de relieve la importancia de desarrollar politicas publicas focalizadas en aquellos sectores promisorios y regiones mas relegadas, como manera de impulsar el desarrollo industrial y cerrar las brechas de ingresos y calidad de vida entre regiones.
翘曲estimacion这个工作对总体生产率为11和20年哥伦比亚各工业部门2012-2016期间,使用信息的年度调查的所有者提出的国家统计局和使用方法semi-parametrico Levinsohn Petrin(2003年),以这个目的。结果表明Bolivar、二氧化碳、昆迪纳马卡省和安蒂奥基亚省生产力水平高于全国平均水平,展示了考卡山谷、考卡和托利马的表现最低。在工业部门,药品和药用化学品生产的高生产率水平突出;电气设备和化工产品的制造。相比之下,纺织、食品加工、基础金属加工和饮料加工等传统行业的生产率水平低于全国平均水平。这些结果强调了针对有前途的部门和较落后的区域制定公共政策的重要性,作为促进工业发展和缩小区域之间收入和生活质量差距的一种手段。
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引用次数: 0
Are Constant Product Market Oracles Safe? 恒定的产品市场预言器安全吗?
Pub Date : 2020-03-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3538932
Joseph Clark
We derive bounds for profitable manipulation of a constant product market used as a reference provider (oracle) for a margin position. Such bounds exist in terms of limits imposed on deposits the constant product market and the margin position, and depend on the elasticity of the underlying spot market.
我们推导了作为保证金头寸参考提供者(oracle)的恒定产品市场的有利可图操纵的界限。这种界限存在于对存款、固定产品市场和保证金头寸施加的限制中,并取决于标的现货市场的弹性。
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引用次数: 1
Demand of Indonesian Sugar 印尼食糖需求
Pub Date : 2020-03-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3549196
Dyana Sari
Domestic sugar demand is important to know as Indonesia now has been the largest economics country in South East Asia. With the world's fourth largest population, Indonesia's sugar demand is certainly fascinating. Therefore, research is needed, what factors influence the demand for Indonesian sugar. The research used secondary data from BPS, USDA, FAO, World Bank, AGI, from 1983 – 2013, processed by SAS version 9. The results of this study showed, demand for sugar in Indonesia is affected by sugar price, population, and the level of income and demand for sugar in the previous year. Estimated price parameters obtained to demand is 199,762 and the sugar category is from elasticity of demand sugar is very elastic. Estimated population parameter is 0.010763. Estimated level of income parameters for sugar demand is equal to - 0.017 and the sugar category from the elasticity of sugar demand to the level income is inelastic.
国内糖的需求很重要,因为印尼现在是东南亚最大的经济体。作为世界第四大人口大国,印尼对糖的需求无疑令人着迷。因此,有必要研究是什么因素影响了印尼糖的需求。该研究使用的二手数据来自BPS、USDA、FAO、World Bank、AGI,时间为1983 - 2013年,由SAS version 9处理。本研究结果表明,印尼食糖需求受食糖价格、人口、前一年收入水平和食糖需求的影响。估计价格参数得到的需求是199,762和糖的类别是从需求弹性糖是非常有弹性的。估计总体参数为0.010763。食糖需求的收入参数估计水平等于- 0.017,食糖类别从食糖需求弹性到收入水平是非弹性的。
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引用次数: 0
Static and Dynamic Price Effects Motivated by Innovation and Imitation: Novel Insights Using the Barone’s Curve 创新和模仿驱动的静态和动态价格效应:利用巴隆曲线的新见解
Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.333
Friedrich L. Sell
Luigi Barone’s famous curve offers an excellent framework for the study of the microeconomic and macroeconomic implications of innovation and imitation. However, neither Barone nor his epigones have been able to sufficiently “exploit” his contribution to date. Complementing his analysis of supply (covering unit costs and marginal costs of production) to the forces of aggregate demand provided by the macroeconomic aggregate demand–aggregate supply model (AS-AD) analysis would be required in order to identify the determinants of the equilibrium price level in the economy. Moreover, a dynamic interpretation (provided by an inhomogeneous difference equation of the second order) of Barone’s key economic growth factors (innovation and imitation) makes it easier to identify the cyclical properties of the macroeconomic price changes. These cyclical price movements have proven to be empirically relevant in the case of Germany (2000–2017), while patent record (as an indicator for the occurrence of innovation) appears to follow a random walk (Germany, 2000–2017).
路易吉·巴隆(Luigi Barone)著名的曲线为研究创新和模仿的微观经济和宏观经济影响提供了一个极好的框架。然而,迄今为止,巴罗内和他的追随者都未能充分“利用”他的贡献。为了确定经济中均衡价格水平的决定因素,需要将他的供给分析(包括单位成本和边际生产成本)与宏观经济总需求-总供给模型(AS-AD)分析提供的总需求力量相补充。此外,Barone的关键经济增长因素(创新和模仿)的动态解释(由二阶非齐次差分方程提供)使宏观经济价格变化的周期性特性更容易识别。在德国(2000-2017年)的情况下,这些周期性价格变动已被证明具有经验相关性,而专利记录(作为创新发生的指标)似乎遵循随机游走(德国,2000-2017年)。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
Microeconomics: Production
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