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Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on India’s Manufacturing Exports: An Empirical Investigation on Long-Run Relation 汇率波动对印度制造业出口的影响:一个长期关系的实证研究
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/2631684620982426
Jyoti
After the collapse of the fixed exchange rate system of Bretton Woods, the fluctuations of exchange rate and its impact on macroeconomic performance and trade in countries around the world are becoming an increasing debate among researchers and policymakers. This study empirically investigates whether fluctuations in real exchange rate may affect real exports in the Indian context. The study has employed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test procedure to analyse the long-run relationship among variables using quarterly data from 2005Q1 to 2017Q4. The results of the ARDL bound test reveal that real exports are cointegrated with relative prices, real exchange rate volatility and world real GDP. The study has found negative but insignificant impact of exchange rate volatility on exports, but world GDP as a proxy of foreign economic activity and real effective exchange rate as relative prices have positive and statistically significant impact on Indian manufacturing exports. Further, the ARDL short-run error correction model implies that while the model may temporarily deviate from its long-run equilibrium, the deviations adjust towards the equilibrium level in the long run. JEL Codes: F01, F31, F14
布雷顿森林固定汇率制度崩溃后,汇率波动及其对世界各国宏观经济运行和贸易的影响日益成为研究人员和政策制定者争论的话题。本研究实证调查了实际汇率波动是否会影响印度的实际出口。本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)约束检验程序,使用2005年第一季度至2017年第四季度的季度数据分析变量之间的长期关系。ARDL约束检验的结果表明,实际出口与相对价格、实际汇率波动和世界实际GDP是协整的。该研究发现汇率波动对出口的负面但不显著的影响,但作为外国经济活动的代理的世界GDP和作为相对价格的实际有效汇率对印度制造业出口具有积极和统计显著的影响。此外,ARDL短期误差修正模型表明,虽然模型可能暂时偏离其长期均衡,但偏离在长期内会向均衡水平调整。JEL代码:F01, F31, F14
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引用次数: 3
Nudging in Singapore: Current Implementation in Three Key Areas 新加坡的推动:目前在三个关键领域的实施
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/2631684620982776
B. Detenber
The city state of Singapore has a long history of social engineering efforts, yet only recently have social scientists and civil servants started to use behavioural insights (BI) to create ‘nudges’ and integrate them into the daily lives of citizens. Colloquially known as a nanny state for its extensive social programmes and sometimes heavy-handed approach to guiding social behaviour, Singapore is often regarded favourably by its neighbours in terms of its cleanliness, efficiency, and productivity. Yet how it manages its populace and the restrictions it imposes on unwanted behaviours are sometimes viewed sceptically by others in Asia and the West. Thus, many in the Singapore Civil Service have come to see nudging as a less coercive way to promote social welfare and well-being. This article reviews some of the latest actions in three areas: finance, health, and the environment. In discussing the range of nudging practices, their effectiveness will be assessed and some of the implications for society and individuals will be addressed. To the extent that Singapore can be considered a bellwether or harbinger, its use of nudges may offer a glimpse of what lies ahead for other countries in the region. JEL codes: E70, O35
新加坡这个城市国家在社会工程方面有着悠久的历史,但直到最近,社会科学家和公务员才开始使用行为洞察力(BI)来创造“助推”,并将其融入公民的日常生活中。由于其广泛的社会项目和有时对社会行为的严厉指导,新加坡通常被称为保姆国家,在清洁、效率和生产力方面,新加坡经常受到邻国的好评。然而,它管理民众的方式,以及它对不受欢迎的行为施加的限制,有时会受到亚洲和西方其他国家的怀疑。因此,新加坡公务员中的许多人已经开始将“助推”视为促进社会福利和福祉的一种不那么强制性的方式。本文回顾了三个领域的一些最新行动:金融、卫生和环境。在讨论轻推实践的范围时,将评估其有效性,并讨论对社会和个人的一些影响。从某种程度上说,新加坡可以被视为风向标或先兆,它对“轻推”的使用可能会让人们对该地区其他国家的未来有所了解。JEL代码:E70, O35
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引用次数: 0
Suthiphand Chirathivat, Buddhagarn Rutchatorn, and Anupama Devendrakumar (eds), China’s Rise in Mainland ASEAN: New Dynamics and Changing Landscape Suthiphand Chirathivat, Buddhagarn Rutchatorn和Anupama Devendrakumar(编),中国在东盟大陆的崛起:新动态和变化的景观
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/2631684621990114
P. De
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引用次数: 2
Comparative Analysis of Structural Transformation Process of Selected Asian Developing Economies 亚洲部分发展中经济体结构转型过程比较分析
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/2631684621989809
R. Aggarwal
This article tries to analyse country-level variations in the selected Asian developing economies in terms of their growth path and their position in the process of structural transformation in the recent decades, by estimating the turning point (TP) for each country. It also examines the magnitude of the contribution of intersectoral shifts and within-sector productivity gains in the economy-wide labour productivity growth by conducting the shift-share analysis. The results of turning point (TP) estimation show that all these countries had achieved their turning points except the Philippines between 1980 and 2018. However, the productivity increase in agriculture is not evident as their GAP in the year when TP would have been achieved is not even near to zero. Further, the shift-share analysis highlights the contribution of within-sector productivity growth is relatively more than that of intersectoral shifts of labour. Thus, the main concern is to make sure that there is a steady intersectoral movement of labour from low productive to high productive sectors, which can be done primarily through expanding the productive sectors (industry and services) to generate employment opportunities. Also, equally important is increasing the productivity of the agricultural sector so that the process of structural transformation could happen smoothly. For this, the public and private investments in R&D of both agriculture and non-agriculture sectors are highly crucial.
本文试图通过估计每个国家的拐点(TP)来分析选定的亚洲发展中经济体在近几十年的增长路径和结构转型过程中的地位方面的国家层面变化。它还通过进行转移份额分析,审查部门间转移和部门内生产率增长对全经济劳动生产率增长的贡献程度。拐点(TP)估计结果表明,除菲律宾外,所有这些国家都在1980年至2018年间达到了拐点。然而,农业生产率的提高并不明显,因为在实现TP的那一年,它们的差距甚至不接近于零。此外,转移份额分析强调部门内生产率增长的贡献相对大于部门间劳动力转移的贡献。因此,主要关注的是确保劳动力从低生产率部门向高生产率部门的稳定部门间流动,这主要可以通过扩大生产部门(工业和服务业)来实现,以创造就业机会。此外,同样重要的是提高农业部门的生产率,以便结构转型的过程能够顺利进行。为此,农业和非农业部门的公共和私人研发投资至关重要。
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引用次数: 1
Naoko Nemoto and Peter J. Morgan (eds), Environmental, Social, And Governance Investment: Opportunities and Risks for Asia Nemoto直子、Peter J. Morgan主编,《环境、社会与治理投资:亚洲的机遇与风险》
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/2631684620982130
Gargi Basu
intellectually stimulating. The book also provides several future research paths. However, on the first pick, the title ‘Ways to achieve green Asia’ may be a little misleading, though trade is a major cause of environmental degradation and should be addressed to achieve green Asia. While the relationship between trade and environment is relatively understood, it would have been more interesting had one of the chapters delved into the equity and inclusion issues in trade, environment and climate change. Similarly, along with climate change, other international commitments, like the Sustainable Development Goals and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, that reflect social dimensions must have been included. Besides, the chapters are silent on the quantification of direct benefit transfer to the community in terms of technology or finance. The book is eclectic in its approach but must be viewed regarding trade and the environment only.
智力上的刺激。本书还提供了几个未来的研究路径。然而,关于第一个选择,标题“实现绿色亚洲的方法”可能有点误导,尽管贸易是环境退化的主要原因,应该解决以实现绿色亚洲。虽然人们对贸易与环境之间的关系相对了解,但如果有一章深入探讨贸易、环境和气候变化中的公平和包容问题,那就更有趣了。同样,除气候变化外,还必须包括其他反映社会层面的国际承诺,如可持续发展目标和仙台减少灾害风险框架。此外,章节没有在技术或金融方面对社区直接利益转移的量化。这本书在方法上是折衷的,但必须只考虑贸易和环境。
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引用次数: 0
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Ageing Societies: Policies and Prospective 亚洲开发银行研究所,老龄化社会:政策与展望
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/2631684620982131
Pratima Yadav
It is evident that population ageing1 has been recognised by both the developed and emerging economies, and its repercussions on the economy and society have taken the centre stage of the discussion. More recently, this phenomenon was among the pivotal discussion points at the G20 summit. In view of G20 interests, ADBI (Asian Development Bank Institute) came up with a report on ageing to address the issues and concerns of the G20 countries. It is a well-researched document and the first of its kind, particularly in the context of G20 countries. This report covers various aspects—demographic dynamics, macroeconomic challenges, savings, investment and labour productivity, social security, fiscal and financial policies of the nations—of ageing in both the developed and developing countries. The discussion is broadly categorised into three groups in this review: (i) Demographic Transition and the Ageing Society; (ii) Economic Implications of an Ageing Population; and (iii) Effective Response to the Ageing World and the Way Forward.
显然,发达国家和新兴经济体都已认识到人口老龄化问题,其对经济和社会的影响已成为讨论的中心议题。最近,这一现象成为20国集团(G20)峰会的关键讨论点之一。考虑到二十国集团的利益,亚洲开发银行研究所提出了《老龄问题报告》,以解决二十国集团国家的问题和关切。这是一份研究充分的文件,也是第一次,特别是在G20国家的背景下。这份报告涵盖了发达国家和发展中国家老龄化的各个方面——人口动态、宏观经济挑战、储蓄、投资和劳动生产率、社会保障、各国的财政和金融政策。在本次审查中,讨论大致分为三组:(i)人口转型和老龄化社会;人口老龄化对经济的影响;(三)有效应对世界老龄化及未来路向。
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引用次数: 0
Bihong Huang and Eden Yu (eds), Ways to Achieve Green Asia 黄碧红、余伊甸主编,《实现绿色亚洲的途径》
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/2631684620982129
Swati Sulgana
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引用次数: 0
What Explains FDI Inflows to ASEAN Countries? Evidence from Quantile Regressions 如何解释东盟国家的FDI流入?分位数回归的证据
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/2631684620982775
J. P. Sahu, S. Dash
This article examines the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to five economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for the period 1985–2017. Using the fixed effects quantile regression (QR) method, we identify the differential effects of the covariates across the conditional distribution of FDI inflows. The results suggest that financial sector development and natural resources in the host country are the most significant determinants of FDI inflows to the ASEAN region. Financial sector development is significant at both higher and lower quantiles of the distribution of FDI inflows, whereas natural resources and political regime are significant at the upper quantiles. The findings suggest that while financial sector development is an important factor for attracting FDI, natural resources and political regime matter for large inflows of FDI to the ASEAN countries. The article concludes that the resource-seeking and the efficiency-seeking motives of the multinational corporations are the primary reasons of large inflows of FDI to the ASEAN countries.
本文研究了1985-2017年期间外国直接投资(FDI)流入东南亚国家联盟(东盟)五个经济体的决定因素。使用固定效应分位数回归(QR)方法,我们确定了协变量在FDI流入条件分布中的差异效应。结果表明,东道国的金融部门发展和自然资源是外国直接投资流入东盟地区的最重要决定因素。金融部门的发展在FDI流入分布的较高和较低的分位数上都很重要,而自然资源和政治制度在较高的分位数上都很重要。研究结果表明,虽然金融部门的发展是吸引外国直接投资的一个重要因素,但自然资源和政治制度对大量流入东盟国家的外国直接投资也很重要。本文认为,跨国公司的资源追求动机和效率追求动机是东盟国家FDI大量流入的主要原因。
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引用次数: 1
A. M. Gupta and N. N. Dalei (Eds), Energy, Environment and Globalization Recent Trends, Opportunities and Challenges in India A. M. Gupta和N. N. Dalei主编,《印度能源、环境与全球化的新趋势、机遇与挑战》
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/2631684620940444
G. Bhatia
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引用次数: 0
Elisabetta Gentile (Ed), Skilled Labour Mobility and Migration: Challenges and Opportunities for ASEAN Economic Community 《技术劳动力流动与移民:东盟经济共同体的挑战与机遇》,主编
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/2631684620940432
A. Taron
The last four decades have witnessed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) maintain an economic growth above the global average. The countries have expanded over five per cent annually, leading to rise of a wealthy urbancentric middle class with a higher willingness to pay for quality goods and services. This has fuelled up both intraand cross-country migration where workers from rural and less developed areas look for opportunities in cities or developed countries. Improved standards of living leading to demographic changes as well as technological advances have the potential to unsettle the labour market, creating a demand for highly specialised skills. It is observed that most of the ASEAN countries are reporting the challenges of shortage of skilled labours. Skilled labour mobility is the need of the ASEAN countries to cope up with the shortages and knowledge transfers across borders. It is also crucial to boost productivity and maintain an economic growth where choices from a broader talent pool of a scare resource is made possible through appropriate matchmaking. In this context, the book1 on skilled labour mobility and migration in the ASEAN context revolves around four core areas of labour mobility in the ASEAN region: (i) its economic impact, (ii) case studies, (iii) policies and mechanisms and (iv) the impact of higher education. It starts by looking into the nature and trend of skill labour migration in the region along with theoretical underpinnings for the phenomenon. It then assesses an economy-wide effect of skilled labour flows, followed by a sectoral review of the labour flows and indicative policies for governments in the ASEAN region. The chapter by Kikkawa and Suan presents the latest trends and patterns of the mobility of people across ASEAN. It hints that the tangible benefits of facilitating labour mobility is low in the ASEAN region and is limited to individual countries. The chapter predicts that sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, construction, care giving and household work are expected to rise globally, and ASEAN countries need to focus on promoting labour mobility in these sectors. Closely linked to this chapter, the next chapter by Gentile interprets the dynamics of Asian labour migration through the lens of existing literature on migration. The chapter indicates two theoretical models to establish the lower flow of migration of skilled labour within the ASEAN region. The author points out to the Kremer O-ring theory (1983), which shows that skilled workers from ASEAN prefer to migrate outside the region even with similar individual skills, since they will be far more productive (implying a higher return) once matched up with the skilled labour force of the host country. Similarly, Grogger and Hanson (2011) postulate that
在过去的40年里,东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN)保持了高于全球平均水平的经济增长。这些国家以每年5%以上的速度增长,导致以城市为中心的富裕中产阶级崛起,他们更愿意为优质商品和服务付费。这助长了国内和跨国移民,来自农村和欠发达地区的工人在城市或发达国家寻找机会。生活水平的提高导致人口结构的变化以及技术的进步有可能扰乱劳动力市场,产生对高度专业化技能的需求。人们注意到,大多数东盟国家都报告了缺乏熟练工人的挑战。熟练劳动力流动是东盟国家应对短缺和跨境知识转移的需要。通过适当的配对,从更广泛的稀缺资源人才库中进行选择,这对提高生产率和保持经济增长也至关重要。在此背景下,关于东盟背景下熟练劳动力流动和移民的书1围绕东盟地区劳动力流动的四个核心领域:(i)其经济影响,(ii)案例研究,(iii)政策和机制以及(iv)高等教育的影响。本文首先探讨了该地区技术劳动力迁移的性质和趋势,以及这一现象的理论基础。然后评估熟练劳动力流动对整个经济的影响,然后对东盟区域各国政府的劳动力流动和指示性政策进行部门审查。菊川和Suan撰写的章节介绍了东盟各国人口流动的最新趋势和模式。这表明,促进劳动力流动在东盟地区的实际效益很低,而且仅限于个别国家。该章预测,农业、渔业、建筑、护理和家务劳动等行业预计将在全球范围内上升,东盟国家需要把重点放在促进这些行业的劳动力流动上。与本章紧密相连的是,Gentile的下一章通过现有的移民文献来解释亚洲劳动力移民的动态。本章提出了两个理论模型来建立东盟区域内技术劳动力的低流动。作者指出了Kremer O-ring理论(1983),该理论表明,即使个人技能相似,东盟的技术工人也倾向于迁移到该地区以外,因为一旦与东道国的技术劳动力相匹配,他们的生产率将高得多(意味着更高的回报)。同样,Grogger和Hanson(2011)假设
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Asian Economic Integration
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