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Marriage, labour supply and the dynamics of the social safety net 婚姻、劳动力供给和社会安全网的动态
Pub Date : 2018-02-19 DOI: 10.1920/WP.IFS.2018.W1805
Hamish Low, C. Meghir, Luigi Pistaferri, Alessandra Voena
The 1996 PRWORA reform introduced time limits on the receipt of welfare in the United States. We use variation by state and across demographic groups to provide reduced form evidence showing that such limits led to a fall in welfare claims (partly due to "banking" benefits for future use), a rise in employment, and a decline in divorce rates. We then specify and estimate a life-cycle model of marriage, labor supply and divorce under limited commitment to better understand the mechanisms behind these behavioral responses, carry out counterfactual analysis with longer run impacts and evaluate the welfare effects of the program. Based on the model, which reproduces the reduced form estimates, we show that among low educated women, instead of relying on TANF, single mothers work more, more mothers remain married, some move to relying only on food stamps and, in ex-ante welfare terms, women are worse off.
1996年的PRWORA改革引入了在美国领取福利的时间限制。我们利用各州和人口群体之间的差异提供了简化的证据,表明这些限制导致了福利申请的下降(部分原因是“银行”福利以备将来使用),就业率的上升和离婚率的下降。然后,我们指定并估计了有限承诺下的婚姻、劳动力供应和离婚的生命周期模型,以更好地理解这些行为反应背后的机制,进行具有长期影响的反事实分析,并评估该计划的福利效应。基于该模型(该模型再现了简化形式的估计),我们表明,在受教育程度较低的女性中,单身母亲不再依赖TANF,而是更多地工作,更多的母亲保持婚姻状态,一些人转而只依赖食品券,从福利的角度来看,女性的境况更糟。
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引用次数: 4
Notice failure revisited: Evidence on the use of virtual patent marking 通知失败重审:关于使用虚拟专利标记的证据
Pub Date : 2018-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24288
Gaétan de Rassenfosse
One source of uncertainty in the patent system relates to the difficulty in identifying products that are protected with a patent. This paper studies the adoption by U.S. patentees of “virtual patent marking,” namely the online provision of constructive notice to the public that an article is patented. It proposes a simple model of the decision to adopt patent marking and empirically examines factors that affect adoption. Data suggest that about 12 percent of patent holders overall provide virtual marking information (and perhaps about 25 percent of commercially active assignees). Econometric analysis suggests that the most discriminant factor of the adoption of virtual marking is the size of the patent portfolio. The likelihood of adoption increases with portfolio size, consistent with evidence that firms with a larger patent portfolio are more likely to be infringed.
专利制度中不确定性的一个来源与难以识别受专利保护的产品有关。本文研究了美国专利权人对“虚拟专利标记”的采用,即在网上向公众提供一篇文章获得专利的建设性通知。它提出了一个简单的模型,决定采用专利标记和实证研究的因素,影响采用。数据显示,大约12%的专利持有人总体上提供虚拟标记信息(大约25%的商业活跃受让人)。计量经济学分析表明,采用虚拟标记的最具歧视性的因素是专利组合的规模。采用的可能性随着专利组合的规模而增加,这与有证据表明拥有更大专利组合的公司更有可能被侵权相一致。
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引用次数: 2
Are Interest Rates Really Low 利率真的很低吗
Pub Date : 2018-01-25 DOI: 10.3386/W24258
D. Feenberg, Clinton Tepper, I. Welch
Contrary to common perception, many fixed-income investors have not suffered unusually low real interest rates in and after the Great Recession of 2008. This is because taxable investors must first pay taxes on nominal interest returns, before inflation further reduces their earned real interest rates. To obtain the same real after-tax yield, investors need more than one-to-one compensation for inflation. As a result, long-term Treasury bonds have been no less attractive for taxable investors in 2016 (with a 1.0% post-tax real yield) than they were in 2006 (0.5%), 1976 (–1.7%), 1966 (0.9%), and 1956 (0.8%), although they have been less attractive than they were in 1996 (2.4%) and 1986 (2.9%). Short-term Treasury bond yields have been on the low side but have also not been particularly unusual.
与普遍看法相反,许多固定收益投资者在2008年“大衰退”(Great Recession)期间及之后,并没有受到实际利率异常低的影响。这是因为应税投资者必须首先为名义利息回报纳税,然后通货膨胀才会进一步降低他们的实际所得利率。为了获得相同的税后实际收益率,投资者需要的不仅仅是对通胀的一对一补偿。因此,长期国债在2016年对应税投资者的吸引力(税后实际收益率为1.0%)并不低于2006年(0.5%)、1976年(-1.7%)、1966年(0.9%)和1956年(0.8%),尽管它们的吸引力低于1996年(2.4%)和1986年(2.9%)。短期国债收益率一直处于低位,但也没有特别反常。
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引用次数: 1
A Neoclassical Theory of Liquidity Traps 流动性陷阱的新古典理论
Pub Date : 2018-01-12 DOI: 10.3386/W24205
S. D. Tella
This paper provides an equilibrium theory of liquidity traps and the real effects of money. Money provides a safe store of value that prevents interest rates from falling enough during downturns, and the economy enters a persistent slump with depressed investment. This is an equilibrium outcome—prices are flexible, markets clear, and inflation is on target—but it’s not efficient. Investment is too high during booms and too low during liquidity traps. Although money has large real effects, monetary policy is ineffective—the zero lower bound is not binding, money is superneutral, and Ricardian equivalence holds. The optimal allocation requires the Friedman rule and a tax/subsidy on capital.
本文提出了流动性陷阱和货币实际效应的均衡理论。货币提供了一种安全的价值储存手段,可以防止利率在经济衰退期间下降到足够的程度,而随着投资的低迷,经济进入了持续的衰退。这是一个均衡的结果——价格是灵活的,市场是清晰的,通胀是有目标的——但它不是有效的。繁荣时期投资过高,流动性陷阱时期投资过低。尽管货币有很大的实际作用,但货币政策是无效的——零利率下限没有约束力,货币是超中性的,李嘉图等价成立。最优配置需要弗里德曼规则和对资本的税收/补贴。
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引用次数: 5
Education Reform in General Equilibrium: Evidence from California's Class Size Reduction 一般均衡下的教育改革:来自加州班级规模缩减的证据
Pub Date : 2018-01-05 DOI: 10.3386/W24191
Michael Gilraine, Hugh Macartney, R. Mcmillan
This paper sheds new light on general equilibrium responses to major education reforms, focusing on a sorting mechanism likely to operate whenever a reform improves public school quality significantly. It does so in the context of California’s statewide class size reduction program of the late-1990s, and makes two main contributions. First, using a transparent differencing strategy that exploits the grade-specific roll-out of the reform, we show evidence of general equilibrium sorting effects: Improvements in public school quality caused marked reductions in local private school shares, consequent changes in public school demographics, and significant increases in local house prices – the latter indicative of the reform’s full impact. Second, using a generalization of the differencing approach, we provide credible estimates of the direct and indirect impacts of the reform on a common scale. These reveal a large pure class size effect of 0.11Iƒ (in terms of mathematics scores), and an even larger indirect effect of 0.16Iƒ via induced changes in school demographics. Further, we show that both effects persist positively, giving rise to an overall policy impact estimated to be 0.4Iƒ higher after four years of treatment (relative to none). The analysis draws attention, more broadly, to conditions under which the indirect sorting effects of major reforms are likely to be first order.
本文为重大教育改革的一般均衡反应提供了新的视角,重点关注了每当改革显著提高公立学校质量时可能运行的分类机制。它是在20世纪90年代末加州全州范围内的班级规模缩减计划的背景下进行的,并做出了两个主要贡献。首先,我们采用透明的差异策略,利用改革的具体年级展开,展示了一般均衡分类效应的证据:公立学校质量的提高导致当地私立学校份额的显著减少,随之而来的是公立学校人口结构的变化,以及当地房价的显著上涨——后者表明了改革的全面影响。其次,利用差分法的一般化方法,我们在一个共同的尺度上对改革的直接和间接影响提供了可信的估计。这些研究揭示了一个巨大的纯班级规模效应(以数学成绩计算),达到0.11 if - f,而通过学校人口统计数据的变化,间接影响甚至更大,达到0.16 if - f。此外,我们表明,这两种效应都是积极的,在治疗四年后,总体政策影响估计高出0.4 if(相对于没有治疗)。这一分析在更广泛的范围内引起了人们的注意,即在哪些条件下,重大改革的间接排序效应可能是首要的。
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引用次数: 13
Stock price crashes: Role of slow-moving capital 股价暴跌:缓慢流动资本的作用
Pub Date : 2017-12-07 DOI: 10.3386/w24098
Mila Getmansky, R. Jagannathan, L. Pelizzon, E. Schaumburg, Darya Yuferova
We study the role of various trader types in providing liquidity in spot and futures markets based on complete order-book and transactions data as well as cross-market trader identifiers from the National Stock Exchange of India for a single large stock. During normal times, short-term traders who carry little inventory overnight are the primary intermediaries in both spot and futures markets, and changes in futures prices Granger-cause changes in spot prices. However, during two days of fast crashes, Granger-causality ran both ways. Both crashes were due to large-scale selling by foreign institutional investors in the spot market. Buying by short-term traders and cross-market traders was insufficient to stop the crashes. Mutual funds, patient traders with better trade-execution quality who were initially slow to move in, eventually bought sufficient quantities leading to price recovery in both markets. Our findings suggest that market stability requires the presence of well-capitalized standby liquidity providers.
我们基于完整的订单簿和交易数据以及来自印度国家证券交易所的单个大型股票的跨市场交易者标识符,研究了各种交易者类型在现货和期货市场提供流动性方面的作用。在正常情况下,持有少量隔夜库存的短线交易员是现货和期货市场的主要中介,期货价格的变动会引起现货价格的变动。然而,在两天的快速崩盘中,格兰杰因果关系是双向的。这两次暴跌都是由于外国机构投资者在现货市场上大规模抛售所致。短期交易者和跨市场交易者的买入不足以阻止崩盘。共同基金是耐心的交易者,交易执行质量更好,最初行动迟缓,但最终买入了足够数量的股票,导致两个市场的价格回升。我们的研究结果表明,市场稳定需要资本充足的备用流动性提供者的存在。
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引用次数: 4
Too Much of a Good Thing? Exporters, Multiproduct Firms and Labor Market Imperfections 好事太多?出口商、多产品企业和劳动力市场不完善
Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w23834
C. Eckel, S. Yeaple
International trade is primarily conducted by large, multiproduct firms (MPFs) that pay above average wages and exhibit high productivity. In this paper we show that if firms can invest in management technologies for identifying worker skill then they will enjoy a form of market power in the labor market that artificially lowers their labor costs. This market failure results in excessive consumption of resources by large, productive exporting firms relative to the social optimum. Trade liberalization then has an ambiguous effect on aggregate welfare: lower trade costs increase access to foreign goods but also exacerbates the labor market distortion as resources are transferred to large firms. The model highlights the need to know why firms "excel" before drawing welfare conclusions regarding cross firm reallocations of resources.
国际贸易主要是由支付高于平均工资并表现出高生产率的大型多产品公司(mpf)进行的。在本文中,我们表明,如果企业能够投资于识别工人技能的管理技术,那么他们将在劳动力市场上享有一种人为降低劳动力成本的市场力量。这种市场失灵导致大型生产性出口企业相对于社会最优资源的过度消耗。因此,贸易自由化对总福利的影响是模糊的:较低的贸易成本增加了获得外国商品的机会,但也加剧了劳动力市场的扭曲,因为资源被转移到大公司。该模型强调,在得出关于跨企业资源再分配的福利结论之前,需要知道企业为什么“出类拔萃”。
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引用次数: 3
Consumption Risk and Human Capital Accumulation in India 消费风险与印度人力资本积累
Pub Date : 2017-11-16 DOI: 10.3386/w24041
A. Foster, Esther Gehrke
We study the consequences of dynamic complementarities in the production of child human capital for the relationship between risk and schooling investment in a low income setting. In contrast to previous literature, we explore the ex ante response of schooling to risk. We develop a model that incorporates, dynamic complementarity in the education production function, ex-post labor market responses by mothers to income shocks, and substitutability between maternal and child work in the household. We test the model using data from rural India, focusing particularly on the schooling of girls. We find that risk substantially reduces the probability that girls attend school. We then simulate the effects of an implicit social insurance program, modeled after the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS). Our results suggest that the risk-reducing effect of the NREGS may offset adverse effects on child education that were evident during the NREGS phase-in due to rising wages.
我们研究了儿童人力资本生产中的动态互补性对低收入环境下风险与学校投资之间关系的影响。与以往的文献相比,我们探讨了学校教育对风险的事前反应。我们开发了一个模型,该模型结合了教育生产函数的动态互补性、母亲对收入冲击的事后劳动力市场反应以及家庭中母婴工作之间的可替代性。我们使用印度农村的数据来测试这个模型,特别关注女孩的学校教育。我们发现,这种风险大大降低了女孩上学的可能性。然后,我们以国家农村就业保障计划(NREGS)为模型,模拟了隐性社会保险计划的影响。我们的研究结果表明,NREGS降低风险的作用可能会抵消在NREGS阶段由于工资上涨而对儿童教育产生的不利影响。
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引用次数: 4
ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels 欧洲央行涉及政府债券购买的政策:影响和渠道
Pub Date : 2017-11-02 DOI: 10.3386/W23985
A. Krishnamurthy, S. Nagel, Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
We evaluate the effects of three ECB policies (the Securities Markets Programme, the Outright Monetary Transactions, and the Long-Term Refinancing Operations) on government bond yields. We use a novel Kalman-filter augmented event-study approach and yields on euro-denominated sovereign bonds, dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, and corporate CDS rates to understand the channels through which policies reduced sovereign bond yields. On average across Italy, Spain and Portugal, considering both the Securities Markets Programme and the Outright Monetary Transactions, yields fall considerably. Decomposing this fall, default risk accounts for 37% of the reduction in yields, reduced redenomination risk for 13%, and reduced market segmentation effects for 50%. Stock price increases in distressed and core countries suggest that these policies also had beneficial macro-spillovers.
我们评估了欧洲央行三项政策(证券市场计划、直接货币交易和长期再融资操作)对政府债券收益率的影响。Â我们使用一种新颖的卡尔曼滤波增强事件研究方法和欧元计价的主权债券、美元计价的主权债券、公司债券和公司CDS利率的收益率来了解政策降低主权债券收益率的渠道。考虑到证券市场计划(Securities Markets Programme)和直接货币交易(Outright Monetary Transactions),意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙的收益率平均大幅下降。从今年秋季的情况来看,违约风险占收益率下降的37%,重新计价风险减少了13%,市场分割效应减少了50%。陷入困境国家和核心国家的股价上涨表明,这些政策也产生了有益的宏观溢出效应。
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引用次数: 174
Pass-Through of Input Cost Shocks Under Imperfect Competition: Evidence from the U.S. Fracking Boom 不完全竞争下投入成本冲击的传递:来自美国水力压裂热潮的证据
Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24025
E. Muehlegger, R. Sweeney
The advent of hydraulic fracturing lead to a dramatic increase in US oil production. Due to regulatory, shipping and processing constraints, this sudden surge in domestic drilling caused an unprecedented divergence in crude acquisition costs across US refineries. We take advantage of this exogenous shock to input costs to study the nature of competition and the incidence of cost changes in this important industry. We begin by estimating the extent to which US refining’s divergence from global crude markets was passed on to consumers. Using rich microdata, we are able to decompose the effects of firm-specific, market-specific and industry-wide cost shocks on refined product prices. We show that this distinction has important economic and econometric significance, and discuss the implications for prospective policy which would put a price on carbon emissions. The implications of these results for perennial questions about competition in the refining industry are also discussed.
水力压裂技术的出现导致了美国石油产量的急剧增加。由于监管、运输和加工方面的限制,美国国内钻井数量的突然激增,导致美国各炼油厂的原油采购成本出现了前所未有的差异。我们利用这种对投入成本的外生冲击来研究这个重要行业的竞争性质和成本变化的发生率。我们首先估算一下,美国炼油业与全球原油市场的差异在多大程度上传递给了消费者。利用丰富的微观数据,我们能够分解企业特定成本冲击、市场特定成本冲击和行业成本冲击对成品油价格的影响。我们表明这种区别具有重要的经济和计量意义,并讨论了对碳排放定价的未来政策的影响。这些结果对炼油行业竞争的长期问题的影响也进行了讨论。
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引用次数: 22
期刊
National Bureau of Economic Research
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