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Economic security study of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation: dynamic analysis and modeling 俄罗斯联邦中央联邦区经济安全研究:动态分析与建模
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.33051/2500-2325-2023-1-102-117
Yulia M. Sokolinskaya
Subject/topic. The article is devoted to the study of economic security indicators of the Central Federal District (CFD) of Russia. The object of this study is the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation. The subject of the study is the indicators of economic security of the region. Goals/tasks. Based on the list of indicators formed in accordance with the «Strategy of Economic Security of the Russian Federation until 2030» to determine the composition of the economic security of the regions of Russia, to classify them, to analyze the dynamics, on the basis of which to build economic and mathematical models of changes in the main parameters of economic security of the Central Federal District. Methodology. In the course of the study, modern methods of scientific and statistical group and mathematical modeling were used: indicative and basic array, scientific generalizations, grouping, dynamic series, correlation and regression analysis. Results. The article systematizes and studies the economic security of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation, which made it possible to determine the problems of economic security of this territory, the prevailing trends and causes of negative dynamics of indicators, as well as to identify the most significant factors determining the change in the effective parameters of economic security using the constructed multifactor model. Conclusions/significance. The novelty consists in the theoretical justification of the economic security of the region, taking into account the systematization and grouping of economic security indicators at the regional level in accordance with the industrial and commercial, innovative and technical, and socio-personnel spheres of life. Application. The results of the study can be applied in practice in the formation or adjustment of the medium-term economic policy of the regions of the Russian Federation, as well as in general to monitor the dynamics of economic security at the regional level in the implementation of the goals and objectives of the current economic policy of the state.
学科/主题。本文对俄罗斯中央联邦区(CFD)经济安全指标进行了研究。本研究的对象是俄罗斯联邦中央联邦区。本研究的主题是区域经济安全指标。目标/任务。根据《到2030年俄罗斯联邦经济安全战略》制定的指标清单,确定俄罗斯各地区经济安全的构成,对其进行分类,分析其动态,在此基础上建立中央联邦区经济安全主要参数变化的经济和数学模型。方法。在研究过程中,采用了现代科学统计分组和数学建模的方法:指示性和基本阵列、科学概括、分组、动态序列、相关和回归分析。结果。本文对俄罗斯联邦中央联邦区的经济安全进行了系统化和研究,从而可以确定该领土的经济安全问题,主要趋势和指标负动态的原因,以及使用构建的多因素模型确定决定经济安全有效参数变化的最重要因素。结论/意义。其新颖之处在于,考虑到根据工业和商业、创新和技术以及社会-人员生活领域在区域一级将经济安全指标系统化和分组,为该区域的经济安全提供了理论依据。应用程序。这项研究的结果可以实际应用于俄罗斯联邦各地区中期经济政策的形成或调整,以及在执行国家现行经济政策的目标和目的过程中监测区域一级经济安全的动态。
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引用次数: 0
Socially and environmentally responsible investments in the Russian industrial sector 对俄罗斯工业部门的社会和环境负责的投资
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.33051/2500-2325-2021-4-83-101
A. Nazarov
Subject/topic. The article presents a theoretical and practical understanding of the concepts of ESG (ecological, social, government) and SRI (socially responsible investing) regarding the specifics and prospects for the development of the Russian industrial sector. The purpose of the article was to demonstrate the potential of these concepts in the practice of managing Russian industrial enterprises. Methodology. Methodologically, the article is based on the integration of statistical, econometric and content research methods on the problem associated with ensuring the dynamically sustainable development of Russian industrial enterprises. Results. The results of the study showed that despite the significant government support received by Russian industrial enterprises in recent years, the sustainability of their development cannot be considered unconditional. Inertia, extensiveness, financial instability and limited rationality in managerial decision-making are evidently traced. There are two external main reasons for this situation: institutional turbulence and shrinking market space for free market competition. For industrial enterprises that are part of public or private corporations, the possibility of using the concepts of environmentally and socially responsible investment, to increase, among other things, their own investment attractiveness, is limited. But high-tech small and medium-sized businesses in the Russian industrial sector can use the ESG and SRI concepts both to obtain investment resources and to increase their own investment attractiveness, and the sources of investment here will be platforms that are non-traditional for the Russian market (business angels, small collective investment funds, entrepreneurial fundraising, etc.). Conclusions/Relevance. The principles of socially and environmentally responsible investment developed in the article can be used as the basis for methodological developments, the creation of indicators that allow simultaneously calculating environmental safety, pro-sociality and economic efficiency of various projects of Russian industrial enterprises.
学科/主题。本文介绍了关于俄罗斯工业部门发展的具体细节和前景的ESG(生态、社会、政府)和SRI(社会责任投资)概念的理论和实践理解。本文的目的是展示这些概念在管理俄罗斯工业企业的实践中的潜力。方法。在方法上,本文综合运用统计、计量和内容研究方法,对保障俄罗斯工业企业动态可持续发展的相关问题进行了研究。结果。研究结果表明,尽管近年来俄罗斯工业企业得到了政府的大力支持,但不能认为其发展的可持续性是无条件的。管理决策的惯性、广泛性、财务不稳定性和有限理性都得到了明显的追踪。造成这种局面的外部原因主要有两个:制度动荡和自由市场竞争的市场空间缩小。对于属于公营或私营公司的工业企业来说,利用对环境和社会负责的投资概念,除其他外,增加它们本身的投资吸引力的可能性是有限的。但俄罗斯工业领域的高科技中小企业既可以利用ESG和SRI的概念获得投资资源,也可以增加自身的投资吸引力,这里的投资来源将是俄罗斯市场非传统的平台(商业天使、小型集体投资基金、创业融资等)。结论/相关性。文章中提出的对社会和环境负责的投资原则可以作为方法发展的基础,可以创建指标,同时计算俄罗斯工业企业各种项目的环境安全性、亲社会性和经济效率。
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引用次数: 0
Negative impacts of the global economic system on the Russian economy in 2022 and their impact on the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators 全球经济体系对2022年俄罗斯经济的负面影响及其对主要宏观经济指标动态的影响
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.33051/2500-2325-2022-4-57-70
K. Zoidov, Konstantin S. Jankauskas
The article examines the theoretical aspects of the policy of economic sanctions, their negative impact on the Russian economy in 2022 and the impact on the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators. Goal. Try to estimate at least approximately the scale of the negative impact on the Russian economy of the economic sanctions imposed against Russia in 2022. Objectives. Analysis of the impact of economic sanctions on the main macroeconomic indicators, such as: GDP and its sectoral structure, investments in fixed assets, consumer prices, labor market, household incomes, public finances and others. Methodology. The methods of system analysis, classification and comparison, evolutionary-institutional theory and historical approach were applied in the course of the study. Results. The negative effects of the economic sanctions of the countries of Europe, North America and a number of others were relayed to the Russian economy in the form of a decrease in production volumes in its certain sectors, a general decline in GDP, a slowdown in investment activity, an increase in the price level and, as a consequence, a drop in real incomes of the population, as well as a decrease in federal budget revenues. Among the positive trends that weaken the negative effect of foreign sanctions, it is worth noting the continued growth in the volume of investments in fixed assets (albeit at a gradually slowing pace) and a decrease in the unemployment rate. Conclusions. The main problem is the fact that the Russian economy is becoming more and more oil and gas oriented. This trend is very dangerous, as it makes the country dependent on the oil price situation and the key players influencing it. The strengthening of the oil and gas model of the development of the Russian economy may lead to a complete loss of the ability to pursue an independent (sovereign) economic policy.
本文研究了经济制裁政策的理论方面,对2022年俄罗斯经济的负面影响以及对主要宏观经济指标动态的影响。的目标。试着至少大致估算一下2022年对俄罗斯实施的经济制裁对俄罗斯经济造成的负面影响的规模。目标。分析经济制裁对主要宏观经济指标的影响,如:国内生产总值及其部门结构、固定资产投资、消费者价格、劳动力市场、家庭收入、公共财政等。方法。在研究过程中运用了系统分析、分类比较、进化制度理论和历史研究方法。结果。欧洲、北美和其他一些国家的经济制裁的负面影响也影响到俄罗斯经济,表现为某些部门的产量减少、国内总产值普遍下降、投资活动放缓、价格水平上升,从而导致人口实际收入下降以及联邦预算收入减少。在削弱外国制裁负面影响的积极趋势中,值得注意的是固定资产投资量的持续增长(尽管速度逐渐放缓)和失业率的下降。结论。主要问题是俄罗斯经济正变得越来越以石油和天然气为导向。这种趋势是非常危险的,因为它使国家依赖于石油价格形势和影响它的主要参与者。俄罗斯经济发展的石油和天然气模式的加强可能导致其完全丧失追求独立(主权)经济政策的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Optimization of energy consumption in the enterprises of the agro-industrial complex on the basis of «smart production» technologies (industrial Internet of Things) 基于“智能生产”技术(工业物联网)的农工综合体企业能耗优化
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.33051/2500-2325-2019-1-58-66
A. Altukhov, M. Dudin, A. Anishchenko
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引用次数: 2
Necessity and directions of transformation of economic theory in modern conditions of civilizational development 现代文明发展条件下经济理论转型的必要性与方向
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.33051/2500-2325-2023-1-147-153
M. Khaykin
The article substantiates the position that, in accordance with the civilizational approach, modern economic theory needs a deep transformation in accordance with the realities of the existing economic reality of the Eurasian countries. Special emphasis is placed on the need to take into account the distinctive features of the «Western» and «non-Western» economy, which are the basis for the formation and development of the Eurasian political economy. The «non-Western» economy largely corresponds to the civilizational code that takes place in the Eurasian economic space, therefore it should be considered not only as a territorial concept, but also as a cultural and historical type of economy. The importance of prioritizing production processes over consumption processes in the system of social reproduction and taking this position into account in modern economic theory is shown.
本文论证了现代经济理论需要根据欧亚国家现有经济现实的实际情况,按照文明化方法进行深刻变革的观点。特别强调需要考虑到“西方”和“非西方”经济的独特特征,这是欧亚政治经济形成和发展的基础。“非西方”经济在很大程度上与欧亚经济空间中发生的文明代码相对应,因此它不仅应该被视为一个领土概念,而且应该被视为一种文化和历史类型的经济。在社会再生产系统中,生产过程优先于消费过程的重要性,并在现代经济理论中考虑到这一立场。
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引用次数: 0
Institutional mechanisms to reduce multifactorial risks for the financial system of Russia and other EAEU countries in conditions of non-linear economic dynamics 非线性经济动态条件下降低俄罗斯和其他欧亚经济联盟国家金融体系多因素风险的制度机制
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.33051/2500-2325-2019-3-65-73
Zarema K. Omarovа, D. Burkaltseva, L. Borsch, M. S. Magaramov
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引用次数: 0
Restoration of national scientific, technical and industrial sovereignty of Russia in the sphere of digital technologies as a key element for providing of economic security 恢复俄罗斯在数字技术领域的国家科学、技术和工业主权,作为提供经济安全的关键因素
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.33051/2500-2325-2019-2-28-34
Z. K. Zoidov
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引用次数: 0
Relationship management as a result of budget planning (case study for selected constituent entities of the Russian Federation) 预算规划带来的关系管理(针对俄罗斯联邦选定组成实体的案例研究)
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.33051/2500-2325-2022-4-23-41
R.Sh. Magomedov, S. V. Sedova, G.M. Tatevosyan, Irina A. Zverkina
The article is devoted to the issues of improving the effectiveness of budget planning in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The end result of budget planning is presented by the authors as an effective management of relations between the state and society, incl. business. A methodology for the analysis of budget planning indicators that characterize these relationships is proposed. The following indicators are used as targets: the share of tax and non-tax revenues in the revenues of the consolidated budget of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation (i.e., budgetary self-sufficiency), the share of business taxes in tax and non-tax revenues, and the share of direct government support measures for private investment projects in the expenditures of the consolidated budget of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation. These relationships are analyzed in two groups of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in which during 2011-2020 stably high (Group A) and stably low (Group B) levels of budgetary self-sufficiency were observed. The study uses general scientific and statistical methods for analyzing numerical and qualitative information. Calculations showed that during 2011-2020 in Group A, the considered indicators grew more often and more consistently, and these ratios showed greater stability than in Group B. Also in Group A, in contrast to Group B, there was an increase in the contribution of business entities to budgetary self-sufficiency. Moreover, in Group B, there were lower volumes of governmental program support measures for private investment projects, which are critical for increasing the budgetary self-sufficiency of its participants. The results, conclusions and proposals contained in the study are addressed, first of all, to federal and regional state authorities and local governments involved in the development, approval, execution and monitoring of the consolidated budget of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation. In addition, the study contains useful information for specialists in public finance, state financial control and statistics.
这篇文章专门讨论提高俄罗斯联邦各组成实体预算规划效力的问题。预算规划的最终结果被作者认为是对国家与社会(包括企业)之间关系的有效管理。提出了一种分析这些关系的预算规划指标的方法。以下指标被用作指标:俄罗斯联邦组成实体综合预算收入中税收和非税收收入的份额(即预算自给自足),营业税在税收和非税收收入中的份额,以及政府对私人投资项目的直接支持措施在俄罗斯联邦组成实体综合预算支出中的份额。在俄罗斯联邦的两组组成实体中分析了这些关系,在2011-2020年期间,观察到预算自给自足水平稳定高(A组)和稳定低(B组)。本研究使用一般的科学和统计方法来分析数值和定性信息。计算表明,在2011-2020年期间,A组所考虑的指标增长更频繁、更一致,这些比率比B组更稳定。在A组,与B组相比,企业实体对预算自给自足的贡献有所增加。此外,在B组中,政府对私人投资项目的方案支持措施数量较少,这些措施对于增加其参与者的预算自给自足至关重要。研究报告所载的结果、结论和建议首先是针对参与制定、批准、执行和监测俄罗斯联邦组成实体综合预算的联邦和地区国家当局以及地方政府的。此外,该研究还为公共财政、国家财政控制和统计方面的专家提供了有用的信息。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Economic Cooperation of Russia and Kazakhstan: from history to the present 俄罗斯与哈萨克斯坦对外经济合作:从历史到现在
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.33051/2500-2325-2019-1-80-92
V. Tsvetkov, M. Dudin
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引用次数: 2
«Agriculture 4.0» – a project of the future or a platform for responding to major challenges and threats to national security “农业4.0”——应对国家安全面临的重大挑战和威胁的未来项目或平台
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.33051/2500-2325-2020-3-84-94
Y. Romanova, E. Levina
The purpose of the article is to study «Agriculture 4.0» as a project of the future or a platform for responding to major challenges and threats to national security. The methodology of this study was based on the methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison, generalization and systematization, as well as the structural-logical approach, analysis of open empirical statistical data and the graphical method. Results. The article examines the theoretical and practical foundations of the directions of digital development of agriculture. The necessity of transformation of modern techniques and technologies for managing the development of agriculture on the principles of sustainable development into a qualitatively new type – «Agriculture 4.0», digital economy or smart agriculture is substantiated. This paper focuses on four main technologies: the Internet of Things, blockchain, big data and artificial intelligence. Conclusions. The Agriculture 4.0 project is comprised of a variety of existing or emerging technologies such as robotics, nanotechnology, synthetic protein, cell agriculture, gene editing technology, artificial intelligence, blockchain and machine learning, which could have overarching impact on future agricultural and food systems. It can ensure the creation of economic, environmental and social benefits and be a response to challenges and threats to national security.
本文的目的是研究“农业4.0”作为未来项目或应对国家安全面临的重大挑战和威胁的平台。本研究的研究方法采用分析综合法、比较法、概括系统化法、结构逻辑法、公开经验统计数据分析法和图解法。结果。本文考察了农业数字化发展方向的理论基础和实践基础。根据可持续发展原则,将管理农业发展的现代技术和技术转化为“农业4.0”、数字经济或智慧农业的必要性得到了证实。本文重点介绍了物联网、区块链、大数据和人工智能四大主要技术。结论。农业4.0项目由各种现有或新兴技术组成,如机器人技术、纳米技术、合成蛋白质、细胞农业、基因编辑技术、人工智能、区块链和机器学习,这些技术可能对未来的农业和粮食系统产生全面影响。它可以确保创造经济、环境和社会效益,并对国家安全面临的挑战和威胁作出反应。
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引用次数: 1
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Market economy problems
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