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Infodemiology and infoveillance: framework for contagious exanthematous diseases, of childhood in Italy. 信息病理学和信息监控:意大利儿童传染性红斑病框架。
IF 4.9 4区 医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2024.2323844
Sandro Provenzano, Omar Enzo Santangelo, Vincenza Gianfredi

Background: Contagious exanthematous diseases are becoming a major public health problem. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the potential epidemiological trend of four infectious exanthematous diseases in Italy through the searches on the internet.

Methods: We used the following Italian search term: 'Sesta malattia' (Sixth Disease, in English), 'Eritema Infettivo' (also knows 'Quinta malattia' in Italian; Fifth Disease in English), 'Quarta malattia' (Fourth Disease in English) and 'Scarlattina' (Scarlet fever in English). We overlapped Google Trends and Wikipedia data to perform a linear regression and correlation analysis. Statistical analyses were performed using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rho). The study period is between July 2015 and December 2022.

Results: The diseases considered have a seasonal trend and the search peaks between GT and Wikipedia overlap. A temporal correlation was observed between GT and Wikipedia search trends. Google Trends Internet search data showed strong correlation with Wikipedia with a rho statistically significant for Fifth disease (rho = 0.78), Fourth disease (rho = 0.76) and Scarlet-fever (rho = 0.77), moderate correlation for Sixth disease (rho = 0.32).

Conclusions: Infectious disease searches using Google and Wikipedia can be useful for public health surveillance and help policy makers implement prevention and information programs for the population, in addition to the fact that increases in searches could represent an early warning in the detection of outbreaks.

背景:传染性红斑病正成为一个主要的公共卫生问题。本研究的目的是通过在互联网上的搜索,评估四种传染性皮肤病在意大利的潜在流行趋势:我们使用了以下意大利语搜索词:"Sesta malattia"(英语为 "第六病")、"Eritema Infettivo"(意大利语为 "Quinta malattia",英语为 "第五病")、"Quarta malattia"(英语为 "第四病")和 "Scarlattina"(英语为 "猩红热")。我们将谷歌趋势和维基百科数据重叠,进行线性回归和相关分析。统计分析采用斯皮尔曼等级相关系数(rho)。研究时间为 2015 年 7 月至 2022 年 12 月:研究的疾病具有季节性趋势,GT 和 Wikipedia 的搜索高峰重叠。GT 和维基百科的搜索趋势之间存在时间相关性。谷歌趋势的互联网搜索数据显示与维基百科有很强的相关性,第五种疾病(rho = 0.78)、第四种疾病(rho = 0.76)和猩红热(rho = 0.77)与维基百科有显著的相关性,第六种疾病(rho = 0.32)与维基百科有中等程度的相关性:使用谷歌和维基百科进行传染病搜索有助于公共卫生监测,帮助政策制定者为民众实施预防和信息计划,此外,搜索量的增加还可能代表着疫情检测的早期预警。
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引用次数: 0
Cryptosporidium sp. infection in solid organ transplant recipients: A systematic review and meta-analysis. 实体器官移植受者中的隐孢子虫感染:系统回顾和荟萃分析。
IF 4.9 4区 医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2023.2290379
Shahira Abdelaziz Ali Ahmed, Annalisa Quattrocchi, Panagiotis Karanis

(1) Background: Organ transplant recipients (OTRs) are vulnerable groups at risk of parasitic infections. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the overall prevalence of Cryptosporidium sp. in OTRs and shed light on this potentially serious complication of organ transplantation. (2) Methods: We systematically searched studies on Cryptosporidium sp. infections in OTRs in four databases (Academia, PubMed, Scopus, and Science Direct). Random effects models were used to calculate pooled prevalence estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Sub-group and meta-regression analyses were conducted. A quality assessment of the included studies was also performed. (3) Results: Among 876 articles retrieved, 21 were included, accounting for 2,642 OTRs. Twenty studies were cross-sectional in design, of which seven reported data on a comparison group, and one was a retrospective cohort. The pooled prevalence of Cryptosporidium sp. in OTRs was 15% (95% CI: 7.4-24.6). Subgroup analysis revealed that the prevalence of Cryptosporidium sp. infection was higher in adults, symptomatics and developing countries and in studies using only non-molecular methods. However, substantial heterogeneity was reported. Low to moderate heterogeneity was observed in subgroups reporting lower prevalence Cryptosporidium sp. including children (5.8; 95% CI: 2.8-9.6), studies conducted in developed countries (5.8; 95% CI: 3.0-9.4) and studies using both molecular and non-molecular diagnostics (11.4; 95% CI: 6.4-17.4). The majority of the listed research reported low-medium quality scores. (4) Conclusion: Cryptosporidium sp. infection is a significant complication in OTRs with underreported prevalence. Preventive strategies to reduce the burden should include Cryptosporidium sp. routine screening for OTRs, particularly post-transplantation in patients with diarrhea. Additional well-designed research studies are required to determine the extent of the Cryptosporidium sp. burden in OTRs.

(1) 背景:器官移植受者(OTR)是容易受到寄生虫感染的群体。本系统综述和荟萃分析旨在评估隐孢子虫在器官移植受者中的总体流行率,并揭示器官移植的这一潜在严重并发症。(2)方法:我们在四个数据库(Academia、PubMed、Scopus 和 Science Direct)中系统地检索了有关 OTR 中隐孢子虫感染的研究。研究采用随机效应模型计算出汇总的感染率估计值及 95% 的置信区间 (CI)。还进行了分组和元回归分析。此外,还对纳入的研究进行了质量评估。(3) 结果:在检索到的 876 篇文章中,共纳入 21 篇,涉及 2,642 例 OTR。20 项研究为横断面研究,其中 7 项研究报告了对比组的数据,1 项研究为回顾性队列研究。OTR中隐孢子虫的总体流行率为15%(95% CI:7.4-24.6)。亚组分析显示,隐孢子虫感染率在成人、无症状者、发展中国家以及仅使用非分子方法的研究中较高。不过,也有报道称存在很大的异质性。在儿童(5.8;95% CI:2.8-9.6)、发达国家(5.8;95% CI:3.0-9.4)以及同时使用分子和非分子诊断方法的研究(11.4;95% CI:6.4-17.4)等报告隐孢子虫感染率较低的亚组中,观察到了低到中等程度的异质性。列出的大多数研究都报告了中低质量得分。(4) 结论:隐孢子虫感染是口腔溃疡治疗中的一个重要并发症,但报告的发病率较低。减少负担的预防策略应包括对 OTR 进行隐孢子虫常规筛查,尤其是移植后腹泻患者。要确定 OTR 中隐孢子虫负担的程度,还需要进行更多设计良好的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Genes drive organisms and slippery slopes. 基因驱动生物和滑坡。
IF 4.9 4区 医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2022-12-22 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2022.2160895
David B Resnik, Raul F Medina, Fred Gould, George Church, Jennifer Kuzma

The bioethical debate about using gene drives to alter or eradicate wild populations has focused mostly on issues concerning short-term risk assessment and management, governance and oversight, and public and community engagement, but has not examined big-picture- 'where is this going?'-questions in great depth. In other areas of bioethical controversy, big-picture questions often enter the public forum via slippery slope arguments. Given the incredible potential of gene drive organisms to alter the Earth's biota, it is somewhat surprising that slippery slope arguments have not played a more prominent role in ethical and policy debates about these emerging technologies. In this article, we examine a type of slippery slope argument against using gene drives to alter or suppress wild pest populations and consider whether it has a role to play in ethical and policy debates. Although we conclude that this argument does not provide compelling reasons for banning the use of gene drives in wild pest populations, we believe that it still has value as a morally instructive cautionary narrative that can motivate scientists, ethicists, and members of the public to think more clearly about appropriate vs. inappropriate uses of gene drive technologies, the long-term and cumulative and emergent risks of using gene drives in wild populations, and steps that can be taken to manage these risks, such as protecting wilderness areas where people can enjoy life forms that have not been genetically engineered.

关于使用基因驱动改变或消灭野生种群的生物伦理争论主要集中在短期风险评估和管理、治理和监督以及公众和社区参与等问题上,而没有深入研究大背景问题--"这将走向何方?在生物伦理争议的其他领域,大视野问题往往通过滑坡论证进入公共论坛。鉴于基因驱动生物具有改变地球生物群的惊人潜力,令人惊讶的是,在有关这些新兴技术的伦理和政策辩论中,"滑坡 "论点并没有发挥更突出的作用。在本文中,我们将探讨一种反对使用基因驱动改变或抑制野生害虫种群的滑坡论点,并考虑它是否能在伦理和政策辩论中发挥作用。尽管我们得出的结论是,这一论点并不能为禁止在野生害虫种群中使用基因驱动技术提供令人信服的理由,但我们认为,作为一种具有道德指导意义的警示性叙述,它仍然具有价值,可以促使科学家、伦理学家和公众更清楚地思考基因驱动技术的适当与不适当使用、在野生种群中使用基因驱动技术的长期、累积和新出现的风险,以及可以采取哪些措施来管理这些风险,例如保护人们可以享受未经基因工程改造的生命形式的野生区域。
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引用次数: 0
WhatsApp-based intervention in urban Colombia to support the prevention of arboviral diseases: a feasibility study. 在哥伦比亚城市开展基于 WhatsApp 的干预活动,支持预防虫媒病毒疾病:一项可行性研究。
IF 4.9 4区 医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2024.2358263
Maria Angelica Carrillo, Alisa Maria Gessler, Tatiana Rivera Ramirez, Rocío Cárdenas Sanchez, Jörg Lindenmeier, Winfried V Kern, Axel Kroeger

Arboviral diseases remain a significant health concern worldwide, with over half the world's population at risk for dengue alone. Without a vaccine or targeted treatment, the most effective strategy of prevention is vector management with community involvement. mHealth interventions, like WhatsApp, offer promising results for engaging communities and promoting healthier behaviors. This study explores the feasibility of integrating WhatsApp in vector control activities to improve arbovirus prevention in Colombia. A mixed-methods approach was employed to assess the WhatsApp-based intervention. WhatsApp messages were sent to 45 community women for 5 weeks to increase their knowledge and practices about dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Pre-and-post surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in community settings to measure the feasibility and acceptability of this intervention. Chat reviews were done to assess the usability of users. A total of 1566 messages were exchanged in 45 WhatsApp chats. High acceptance and good usability (82% of users used the app for replying) were reported in this study. WhatsApp messages were perceived as short, clear, and enjoyable. Users liked the frequency, and design of messages. Pre- and post-surveys demonstrated improvements in the knowledge and practices of arboviral diseases. The intention to apply this knowledge in practice was reflected in a significant improvement, particularly in cleaning the laundry tank once a week (pre 62.1% to post 89.6%, p < 0.008). This study suggests that using WhatsApp as an additional tool could be a feasible, acceptable, and affordable strategy for improving the adoption of better practices in the prevention of arboviral diseases.

虫媒病毒疾病仍然是全球关注的重大健康问题,仅登革热一项,全球就有一半以上的人口面临风险。在没有疫苗或针对性治疗的情况下,最有效的预防策略是有社区参与的病媒管理。移动医疗干预措施,如 WhatsApp,为社区参与和促进更健康的行为提供了可喜的成果。本研究探讨了将 WhatsApp 整合到病媒控制活动中的可行性,以改善哥伦比亚的虫媒病毒预防工作。研究采用混合方法评估基于 WhatsApp 的干预措施。向 45 名社区妇女发送了为期 5 周的 WhatsApp 消息,以增加她们对登革热、寨卡和基孔肯雅病毒的了解和实践。在社区环境中开展了前后调查和焦点小组讨论,以衡量这项干预措施的可行性和可接受性。还进行了聊天评论,以评估用户的可用性。在 45 个 WhatsApp 聊天中,共交换了 1566 条信息。研究结果表明,用户的接受度高,实用性强(82% 的用户使用该应用程序进行回复)。用户认为 WhatsApp 消息简短、清晰、愉快。用户喜欢信息的频率和设计。前后调查显示,用户对虫媒病毒疾病的认识和实践都有所提高。在实践中应用这些知识的意愿有了显著提高,尤其是在每周清洗一次洗衣槽方面(调查前为 62.1%,调查后为 89.6%,p<0.05)。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing screening adherence for strongyloides infection in latinx inpatients with COVID-19: a local protocol implementation study. 通过 COVID-19 提高拉丁裔住院患者对强直性脊柱炎感染筛查的依从性:一项地方协议实施研究。
IF 4.9 4区 医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-05-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2023.2240088
María Asunción Pérez-Jacoiste Asín, Marta De Castro, Begoña De Dios, Ana Pérez-Ayala, Antonio Lalueza, Ana García-Reyne, Irene Losada, Juan María Herrero-Martínez, Pilar Hernández Jiménez, Carlos Lumbreras, Manuel Lizasoain, Francisco López Medrano

Strongyloides stercoralis hyperinfection syndrome has been observed in immunosuppressed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Detecting and treating asymptomatic Strongyloides infection in individuals from endemic areas can effectively prevent hyperinfection. Unfortunately, many clinicians are unaware of this neglected infection. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate whether including Strongyloides screening in COVID-19 management protocols would encourage this practice. To accomplish this, we conducted a retrospective single-center study at 'Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre' in Madrid, Spain, comparing two consecutive cohorts. The first cohort comprised all Latinx patients over 18 years old who were admitted for COVID-19 between March 1st and April 30th, 2020. The second cohort consisted of Latinx patients admitted between July 1st and December 31st, 2020, following an amendment to the COVID-19 management protocol that recommended screening for strongyloidiasis in at-risk patients. We identified 559 and 795 patients in the first and second periods, respectively. The percentage of individuals screened increased significantly from 8.8% to 51.6% after the screening recommendation was included in the protocol (odds ratio [OR] 11.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.01-15.33). In both periods, the screening rate was significantly higher among those receiving immunosuppression than those who did not receive steroids and/or tocilizumab. No other factors influenced the screening rate. In conclusion, including strongyloidiasis screening recommendations in COVID-19 management protocols led to its increased implementation. However, the overall screening rate remained low, emphasizing the need for further efforts to enhance screening practices.

在免疫抑制的 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)患者中观察到了盘尾丝虫高感染综合征。检测和治疗来自流行地区的无症状盘尾丝虫感染可有效预防高感染。遗憾的是,许多临床医生并不了解这种被忽视的感染。因此,我们旨在评估将斯龙线虫筛查纳入 COVID-19 管理方案是否会鼓励这种做法。为此,我们在西班牙马德里的十月十二日大学医院(Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre)进行了一项回顾性单中心研究,比较了两个连续的队列。第一个队列包括 2020 年 3 月 1 日至 4 月 30 日期间因 COVID-19 入院的所有 18 岁以上拉丁裔患者。第二个队列包括 2020 年 7 月 1 日至 12 月 31 日期间因 COVID-19 管理方案修订建议对高危患者进行强直性脊柱炎筛查而入院的拉丁裔患者。我们在第一阶段和第二阶段分别发现了 559 名和 795 名患者。将筛查建议纳入方案后,筛查比例从 8.8% 显著增加到 51.6%(几率比 [OR] 11.08,95% 置信区间 [CI] 8.01-15.33)。在这两个时期,接受免疫抑制的患者的筛查率明显高于未接受类固醇和/或托珠单抗治疗的患者。没有其他因素影响筛查率。总之,将强直性脊柱炎筛查建议纳入COVID-19管理方案后,其实施率有所提高。然而,总体筛查率仍然很低,这强调了进一步加强筛查工作的必要性。
{"title":"Enhancing screening adherence for strongyloides infection in latinx inpatients with COVID-19: a local protocol implementation study.","authors":"María Asunción Pérez-Jacoiste Asín, Marta De Castro, Begoña De Dios, Ana Pérez-Ayala, Antonio Lalueza, Ana García-Reyne, Irene Losada, Juan María Herrero-Martínez, Pilar Hernández Jiménez, Carlos Lumbreras, Manuel Lizasoain, Francisco López Medrano","doi":"10.1080/20477724.2023.2240088","DOIUrl":"10.1080/20477724.2023.2240088","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><i>Strongyloides stercoralis</i> hyperinfection syndrome has been observed in immunosuppressed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Detecting and treating asymptomatic <i>Strongyloides</i> infection in individuals from endemic areas can effectively prevent hyperinfection. Unfortunately, many clinicians are unaware of this neglected infection. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate whether including <i>Strongyloides</i> screening in COVID-19 management protocols would encourage this practice. To accomplish this, we conducted a retrospective single-center study at 'Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre' in Madrid, Spain, comparing two consecutive cohorts. The first cohort comprised all Latinx patients over 18 years old who were admitted for COVID-19 between March 1<sup>st</sup> and April 30<sup>th</sup>, 2020. The second cohort consisted of Latinx patients admitted between July 1<sup>st</sup> and December 31<sup>st</sup>, 2020, following an amendment to the COVID-19 management protocol that recommended screening for strongyloidiasis in at-risk patients. We identified 559 and 795 patients in the first and second periods, respectively. The percentage of individuals screened increased significantly from 8.8% to 51.6% after the screening recommendation was included in the protocol (odds ratio [OR] 11.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.01-15.33). In both periods, the screening rate was significantly higher among those receiving immunosuppression than those who did not receive steroids and/or tocilizumab. No other factors influenced the screening rate. In conclusion, including strongyloidiasis screening recommendations in COVID-19 management protocols led to its increased implementation. However, the overall screening rate remained low, emphasizing the need for further efforts to enhance screening practices.</p>","PeriodicalId":19850,"journal":{"name":"Pathogens and Global Health","volume":" ","pages":"232-240"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11221480/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10013990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monitoring avian influenza in mammals with real-time data. 利用实时数据监测哺乳动物中的禽流感。
IF 4.9 4区 医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2024.2323843
Francesco Branda, Marta Giovanetti, Fabio Scarpa, Massimo Ciccozzi
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引用次数: 0
Staphylococcus aureus epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical manifestations and application of nano-therapeutics as a promising approach to combat methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus. 金黄色葡萄球菌的流行病学、病理生理、临床表现及纳米治疗作为对抗耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌的一种有前途的方法的应用。
IF 4.9 4区 医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-05-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-25 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2023.2285187
Raghad H F Bashabsheh, O'la Al-Fawares, Iyad Natsheh, Roba Bdeir, Rozan O Al-Khreshieh, Hasan H F Bashabsheh

Staphylococcus aureus is a Gram-positive bacterium and one of the most prevalent infectious disease-related causes of morbidity and mortality in adults. This pathogen can trigger a broad spectrum of diseases, from sepsis and pneumonia to severe skin infections that can be fatal. In this review, we will provide an overview of S. aureus and discuss the extensive literature on epidemiology, transmission, genetic diversity, evolution and antibiotic resistance strains, particularly methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA). While many different virulence factors that S. aureus produces have been investigated as therapeutic targets, this review examines recent nanotechnology approaches, which employ materials with atomic or molecular dimensions and are being used to diagnose, treat, or eliminate the activity of S. aureus. Finally, having a deeper understanding and clearer grasp of the roles and contributions of S. aureus determinants, antibiotic resistance, and nanotechnology will aid us in developing anti-virulence strategies to combat the growing scarcity of effective antibiotics against S. aureus.

金黄色葡萄球菌是一种革兰氏阳性细菌,是成年人发病和死亡的最普遍的传染病相关原因之一。这种病原体可以引发广泛的疾病,从败血症和肺炎到可能致命的严重皮肤感染。在这篇综述中,我们将提供金黄色葡萄球菌的概述,并讨论广泛的文献流行病学,传播,遗传多样性,进化和抗生素耐药菌株,特别是耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌(MRSA)。虽然金黄色葡萄球菌产生的许多不同的毒力因子已被研究作为治疗靶点,但本文综述了最近的纳米技术方法,这些方法使用具有原子或分子尺寸的材料,并被用于诊断、治疗或消除金黄色葡萄球菌的活性。最后,对金黄色葡萄球菌决定因子、抗生素耐药性和纳米技术的作用和贡献有了更深入的了解和更清晰的把握,将有助于我们制定抗毒策略,以应对金黄色葡萄球菌有效抗生素日益短缺的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling the health impact of increasing vaccine coverage and nonpharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 in Ghana. 在加纳模拟扩大疫苗覆盖面和非药物干预措施对 2019 年冠状病毒疾病的健康影响。
IF 4.9 4区 医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2024.2313787
Sylvia K Ofori, Jessica S Schwind, Kelly L Sullivan, Gerardo Chowell, Benjamin J Cowling, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung

Seroprevalence studies assessing community exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Ghana concluded that population-level immunity remained low as of February 2021. Thus, it is important to demonstrate how increasing vaccine coverage reduces the economic and public health impacts associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To that end, this study used a Susceptible-Exposed-Presymptomatic-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered-Dead-Vaccinated compartmental model to simulate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission and the role of public health interventions in Ghana. The impact of increasing vaccination rates and decline in transmission rates due to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on cumulative infections and deaths averted was explored under different scenarios. Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC) was used to investigate the uncertainty and sensitivity of the outcomes to the parameters. Simulation results suggest that increasing the vaccination rate to achieve 50% coverage was associated with almost 60,000 deaths and 25 million infections averted. In comparison, a 50% decrease in the transmission coefficient was associated with the prevention of about 150,000 deaths and 50 million infections. The LHS-PRCC results indicated that in the context of vaccination rate, cumulative infections and deaths averted were most sensitive to vaccination rate, waning immunity rates from vaccination, and waning immunity from natural infection. This study's findings illustrate the impact of increasing vaccination coverage and/or reducing the transmission rate by NPI adherence in the prevention of COVID-19 infections and deaths in Ghana.

对加纳社区接触严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)的情况进行的血清流行率评估研究得出结论,截至 2021 年 2 月,人口的免疫力仍然很低。因此,证明提高疫苗覆盖率如何减少与 SARS-CoV-2 传播相关的经济和公共卫生影响非常重要。为此,本研究使用 "易感者-暴露者-无症状者-无症状者-恢复者-死亡者-疫苗接种者 "分区模型模拟加纳 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的传播和公共卫生干预措施的作用。在不同情景下,探讨了疫苗接种率的提高和非药物干预(NPIs)导致的传播率下降对累计感染和避免死亡的影响。采用拉丁超立方抽样-部分秩相关系数(LHS-PRCC)来研究结果的不确定性和对参数的敏感性。模拟结果表明,提高疫苗接种率以达到 50%的覆盖率可避免近 60,000 例死亡和 2,500 万例感染。相比之下,传播系数降低 50%,可避免约 15 万人死亡和 5000 万人感染。LHS-PRCC 结果表明,在疫苗接种率的背景下,累积感染和避免死亡对疫苗接种率、疫苗接种的免疫力减弱率和自然感染的免疫力减弱率最为敏感。这项研究的结果说明了在加纳提高疫苗接种覆盖率和/或通过坚持 NPI 降低传播率对预防 COVID-19 感染和死亡的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond gain of function: strengthening oversight of research with potential pandemic pathogens. 超越功能获得:加强对潜在流行病病原体研究的监督。
IF 4.9 4区 医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-05-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-04 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2023.2265627
Gregory D Koblentz, Rocco Casagrande

In 2017, the Department of Health and Human Services adopted a policy, known as the P3CO Framework, to govern proposed research that could enhance the lethality or transmissibility of a potential pandemic pathogen. The prospect of a human-made virus with artificially enhanced lethality and transmissibility has raised serious biosafety and biosecurity concerns. The COVID-19 pandemic has generated new concerns about the risks posed by such research. Even if the origins of the pandemic are presumed or proven to be the result of a natural zoonotic spillover event, the pandemic has placed greater scrutiny on research that could generate pandemic-capable viruses and dramatically illustrated the consequences if such a virus were released from a laboratory. This article assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the P3CO Framework and provides recommendations for strengthening oversight of research with potential pandemic pathogens. The P3CO Framework should be replaced by a national policy that would apply to all relevant research, regardless of the source of funding and be implemented by a new national agency for biorisk management. This new policy would need to be accompanied by a comprehensive analysis of potential pandemic pathogen risks, clear guidance on how to identify research that falls within the scope of the policy, a rigorous process for reviewing the risks and benefits of such research, and criteria for determining the appropriate measures needed to conduct such research safely, securely, and responsibly.

2017年,卫生与公众服务部通过了一项被称为P3CO框架的政策,以管理可能提高潜在大流行病原体致命性或传播性的拟议研究。人工增强致命性和传播性的人造病毒的前景引发了严重的生物安全和生物安保问题。新冠肺炎大流行引发了人们对此类研究带来的风险的新担忧。即使大流行的起源被推测或证明是自然人畜共患外溢事件的结果,但这场大流行对可能产生具有大流行能力的病毒的研究进行了更严格的审查,并戏剧性地说明了如果这种病毒从实验室释放会产生什么后果。本文评估了P3CO框架的优势和劣势,并为加强对潜在流行病病原体研究的监督提供了建议。P3CO框架应被适用于所有相关研究的国家政策所取代,无论资金来源如何,并由一个新的国家生物风险管理机构实施。这项新政策需要对潜在的大流行病原体风险进行全面分析,就如何确定属于该政策范围的研究提供明确指导,审查此类研究的风险和益处的严格程序,以及确定安全、可靠和负责任地进行此类研究所需的适当措施的标准。
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引用次数: 0
Genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Morocco. 摩洛哥 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron 变体的遗传多样性和进化动态。
IF 4.9 4区 医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-05-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-27 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2023.2250942
Safae El Mazouri, Abdelmounim Essabbar, Tarik Aanniz, Rachid Eljaoudi, Lahcen Belyamani, Azeddine Ibrahimi, Mouna Ouadghiri

Among the numerous variants of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that have been reported worldwide, the emergence of the Omicron variant has drastically changed the landscape of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we analyzed the genetic diversity of Moroccan SARS-CoV-2 genomes with a focus on Omicron variant after one year of its detection in Morocco in order to understand its genomic dynamics, features and its potential introduction sources. From 937 Omicron genomes, we identified a total of 999 non-unique mutations distributed across 92 Omicron lineages, of which 13 were specific to the country. Our findings suggest multiple introductory sources of the Omicron variant to Morocco. In addition, we found that four Omicron clades are more infectious in comparison to other Omicron clades. Remarkably, a clade of Omicron is particularly more transmissible and has become the dominant variant worldwide. Moreover, our assessment of Receptor-Binding Domain (RBD) mutations showed that the Spike K444T and N460K mutations enabled a clade higher ability of immune vaccine escape. In conclusion, our analysis highlights the unique genetic diversity of the Omicron variant in Moroccan SARS-CoV-2 genomes, with multiple introductory sources and the emergence of highly transmissible clades. The distinctiveness of the Moroccan strains compared to global ones underscores the importance of ongoing surveillance and understanding of local genomic dynamics for effective response strategies in the evolving COVID-19 pandemic.

在全球已报道的严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)的众多变种中,Omicron 变种的出现极大地改变了冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行的格局。在此,我们分析了摩洛哥 SARS-CoV-2 基因组的遗传多样性,重点是摩洛哥发现 Omicron 变种一年后的情况,以了解其基因组动态、特征及其潜在的引入源。在 937 个 Omicron 基因组中,我们共发现了 999 个非独特变异,分布在 92 个 Omicron 系中,其中 13 个是摩洛哥特有的。我们的研究结果表明,摩洛哥的 Omicron 变异有多个引入源。此外,我们还发现,与其他 Omicron 支系相比,四个 Omicron 支系的传染性更强。值得注意的是,一个 Omicron 支系的传播性特别强,已成为全球的主要变种。此外,我们对受体结合域(RBD)突变的评估表明,Spike K444T 和 N460K 突变使该支系具有更强的免疫疫苗逃逸能力。总之,我们的分析凸显了摩洛哥 SARS-CoV-2 基因组中 Omicron 变体独特的遗传多样性,它有多个引种来源,并出现了高传播性支系。与全球菌株相比,摩洛哥菌株的独特性强调了持续监测和了解当地基因组动态对于在不断演变的 COVID-19 大流行中采取有效应对策略的重要性。
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Pathogens and Global Health
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